- Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard is set to compete three-point shooting contest at this year’s Atlanta All-Star Game, sources tell Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports. Haynes notes that Lillard currently ranks third in the league when it comes to made three-pointers this season. Lillard’s 105 made triples rank behind only Buddy Hield (106) and Stephen Curry (140).
We’re over a third away into the NBA’s 2020/21 regular season, and while the standings will surely fluctuate significantly between now and the end of the season in May, we’re starting to get a sense of which teams will be competitive and which teams probably won’t be.
As a picture begins to form of which teams will be vying for top seeds in each conference and which might be battling for lottery odds, it’s worth checking in on the traded first-round picks for 2021. Of next year’s 30 first-round selections, as many as 13 could technically change hands, via trades or swaps. This year’s standings will dictate where those picks land and whether or not some of them change hands at all.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here’s an early look at which of those traded picks are most and least likely to change hands, and which ones are still very much up in the air:
Unprotected picks that will definitely change hands:
- Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick.
- Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick.
There’s no mystery here about whether or not these picks will be conveyed in 2021, since both are unprotected. It looks like the Knicks will make out much better than the Pelicans, given how well the Lakers have played and how much the Mavericks has struggled. As of today, Dallas’ pick projects to fall in the lottery, at No. 13 (depending on play-in results), while L.A.’s first-rounder would be No. 29.
Protected picks that almost certainly won’t change hands:
- Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
- Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
The Jazz currently have the NBA’s best record, while the Pistons hold the league’s second-worst record. That means Utah’s pick will be at the end of the first round (currently No. 30) and comfortably fall within its 15-30 protection, while Detroit’s pick will absolutely be in the lottery (currently No. 2) and won’t be sent to Houston. It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which this outlook changes in the coming months.
The Grizzlies can at least count on getting Utah’s first-rounder in 2022, when it will become top-six protected. It may be a while before the Rockets get a pick from Detroit though — that first-rounder remains heavily protected in 2022 (top-16), 2023 (top-18), and 2024 (top-18) before those protections start to loosen a little.
It’s also worth mentioning here that the Knicks have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Clippers this season, but are very unlikely to pass L.A. in the standings and be in position to exercise that option. New York’s first-rounder currently projects to be No. 17, while the Clippers’ would be No. 28.
Still up in the air:
- Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
- Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
The Timberwolves have the NBA’s worst record, which theoretically puts them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. However, the league’s lottery format means that even if Minnesota finishes at the bottom of the NBA standings, there’s still only about a 40% chance they’ll end up in the top three and keep that first-rounder, with a 60% chance of it going to the Warriors. The fate of that pick figures to remain up in the air right up until lottery night.
We have a better chance at getting clarity on the fate of Golden State’s first-rounder before the end of the season, but at the moment, it could still easily go either way. The Warriors’ 15-13 record would give the team the No. 20 overall pick if the season ended today, allowing them to keep their pick rather than sending it to the Thunder. But that could change quickly — there are currently 11 teams within two games of Golden State in the NBA standings, on one side or the other.
Analyzing the Rockets/Thunder/Heat/Blazers/Nets situation:
Six teams’ draft picks are tied up in a series of convoluted trades and swaps that are nearly impossible to explain clearly and concisely. Fortunately, one of those teams is the Pistons, whose pick will be protected this year, removing them from the equation.
That still leaves five teams in this complex arrangement, however. We did our best in an earlier story to explain how this situation will work. It essentially breaks down like this:
- The Thunder will have the right to swap either their first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick for the Rockets‘ first-round pick, but only if Houston’s pick doesn’t fall in the top four. In other words, if Houston gets a top-four pick, the Rockets will keep their own first-rounder; if not, the Thunder will get the two most favorable picks of their own, the Heat’s, and the Rockets’, and Houston will get the least favorable.
- Once the first step is complete, the Rockets will be left with at least one first-round pick, and likely two, since they’re also owed the Trail Blazers‘ first-rounder (top-14 protected). They would then have the right to swap either of those picks with the Nets‘ first-rounder (unprotected).
If the season ended today, the Heat, Thunder, and Rockets would – believe it or not – all be tied in the standings with matching 11-16 records. A random tiebreaker would determine where those first-rounders land in the 6-to-9 range (since Atlanta also has a 11-16 record), assuming no lottery movement, then the Thunder would claim the two most favorable picks (no worse than No. 7 and No. 8), while the Rockets would get the least favorable pick (either No. 8 or No. 9).
The Rockets would also receive the Trail Blazers’ first-rounder (either No. 25 or No. 26), and would subsequently swap it with the Nets’ pick (No. 24), leaving Brooklyn with that Portland pick.
I’d expect this situation to continue to evolve considerably over the course of the season, but for now it looks pretty favorable for both the Thunder and the Rockets.
Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum has been allowed to shed his walking boot and will advance to the next stage of his rehabilitation, according to a team press release. McCollum, who was examined on Tuesday, will be reevaluated again in two weeks. McCollum suffered a small hairline fracture to the lateral cuneiform against Atlanta on January 16.
We have more injury news:
- Timberwolves wing Jarrett Culver has been upgraded to on-court activity this week, according to a team press release. He suffered a left ankle sprain against Golden State on January 25. Culver is expected to be reevaluated next week, with potential to return to play late next week.
- Clippers forward Paul George, who hasn’t played since February 3 due to bone edema in his right toe, will miss Wednesday’s game against Utah, the team’s PR department announced. Kawhi Leonard, who sat out against Miami on Monday due to a left lower leg contusion, is listed as questionable.
- Nets guard Kyrie Irving was ruled out on Tuesday due to back tightness. Coach Steve Nash said it’s a short-term issue and that Irving should return soon, Adam Zagoria of the New York Times tweets. Brooklyn plays the Lakers on Thursday and Clippers on Friday.
It’s hard to imagine a trade scenario for Blake Griffin, according to a number of staff members on The Athletic. Griffin’s max salary and declining play make it nearly impossible to deal him. Griffin, who will reportedly sit until the Pistons can find a trade partner or buy him out, is a shell of his former All-Star self after multiple knee surgeries, as the story points out his inability to dunk and block shots any longer. The Celtics, Trail Blazers, Nets, Warriors, Lakers, Bucks, Kings and Spurs are all mentioned as possible destinations if Griffin is bought out.
We have more on the Pistons:
- If Griffin is able to pick his next destination, the situation will be a win-win for both him and the Pistons, Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press writes. GM Troy Weaver can continue to chart his own course with his multi-year rebuilding plan and the team’s younger players, like Eastern Conference Player of the Week Saddiq Bey, can get extended playing time.
- Griffin deserves to be remembered fondly by Detroit fans, James Edwards of The Athletic opines. Griffin led the team to the playoffs two seasons ago and continually played through injuries and pain. He showed the city’s trademark grit, diving for loose balls, barking at opponents and taking charges. Griffin gave everything he could to the team until his body betrayed him, Edwards adds.
- Given his age and early-season production, Wayne Ellington is the most logical player to be traded, Edwards writes in a separate piece. The Pistons might be able to flip the veteran shooting guard for a second-round pick. Delon Wright‘s versatility to play both guard positions could also make him an attractive trade target. The Sixers are one of the teams reportedly interested in Wright.
Before they signed veteran swingman Iman Shumpert in an effort to improve their wing defense, the Nets considered longtime Thunder forward Andre Roberson, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic. According to Brian Lewis of The New York Post (Twitter link), the Nets’ interest in Roberson wasn’t just cursory — the team actually worked him out before signing Shumpert.
Roberson, who is limited on offense but has a reputation as a defensive stopper, returned last August during the NBA’s summer restart after having missed over two full years due to knee issues. However, his contract expired at season’s end and he has yet to catch on with a new NBA team. Given how many of Brooklyn’s end-of-roster players have non-guaranteed salaries, it’s possible the Nets could open up a spot and circle back to Roberson later in the season, as Lewis notes.
Here’s more from Charania:
- The Raptors and Nets – who were both mentioned by Charania as possible Andre Drummond suitors via trade or buyout – are viewed as two teams in the market for frontcourt help. Charania suggests the Mavericks, Lakers, and Trail Blazers are among the clubs likely to join that list.
- Charania confirms that the Bulls have some interest in Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball, but says the two teams haven’t engaged in any dialogue about a possible trade.
- Rival teams are keeping an eye on Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons, according to Charania. There’s no indication Portland has interest in moving Simons, but other clubs may envision a larger scoring and play-making role for him than he has in Portland, where he backs up an All-NBA point guard.
- Veteran big man Kenneth Faried, 31, is working out in Los Angeles and hopes to make an NBA comeback, per Charania.
It has been an up-and-down 12 months for the NBA, which had to pause its operations for several months when its players first began testing positive for the coronavirus last March. Although the league was eventually able to play the 2020 postseason and is in the midst of its (slightly-abridged) 2020/21 regular season, fans still haven’t been able to return to arenas in many NBA cities, putting a major dent in projected revenues for the coming year.
Despite the financial challenges faced by many of the NBA’s teams, the overall value of those franchises continues to increase, according to a report from Kurt Badenhausen and Mike Ozanian of Forbes. While it’s the most modest year-over-year rise since 2010, Forbes estimates that average team values are up by about 4% from 2020.
The Knicks have become the first franchise to earn a $5 billion valuation from Forbes, with a league-high 9% increase in their value since last February. The Warriors, meanwhile, also saw their value rise by 9%, according to Forbes, surpassing the Lakers for the No. 2 spot on the annual report. The league-wide average of $2.2 billion per team in 2021 is a new record for Forbes’ valuations.
Forbes’ valuations are slightly more conservative than the ones issued by sports-business outlet Sportico last month — Sportico’s report featured an average team value of nearly $2.4 billion, with the Knicks, Warriors, and Lakers all surpassing the $5 billion threshold.
Here’s the full list of NBA franchise valuations, per Forbes:
- New York Knicks: $5 billion
- Golden State Warriors: $4.7 billion
- Los Angeles Lakers: $4.6 billion
- Chicago Bulls: $3.3 billion
- Boston Celtics: $3.2 billion
- Los Angeles Clippers: $2.75 billion
- Brooklyn Nets: $2.65 billion
- Houston Rockets: $2.5 billion
- Dallas Mavericks: $2.45 billion
- Toronto Raptors: $2.15 billion
- Philadelphia 76ers: $2.075 billion
- Miami Heat: $2 billion
- Portland Trail Blazers: $1.9 billion
- San Antonio Spurs: $1.85 billion
- Sacramento Kings: $1.825 billion
- Washington Wizards: $1.8 billion
- Phoenix Suns: $1.7 billion
- Utah Jazz: $1.66 billion
- Denver Nuggets: $1.65 billion
- Milwaukee Bucks: $1.625 billion
- Oklahoma City Thunder: $1.575 billion
- Cleveland Cavaliers: $1.56 billion
- Indiana Pacers: $1.55 billion
- Atlanta Hawks: $1.52 billion
- Charlotte Hornets: $1.5 billion
- Orlando Magic: $1.46 billion
- Detroit Pistons: $1.45 billion
- Minnesota Timberwolves: $1.4 billion
- New Orleans Pelicans: $1.35 billion
- Memphis Grizzlies: $1.3 billion
While most franchise values increased, that wasn’t the case across the board. The Thunder, Hawks, Hornets, Pistons, Pelicans, and Grizzlies all maintained the same value that they had in 2020. No teams decreased in value, however.
The Jazz had the biggest rise in the bottom half of this list, moving from 21st in 2020’s rankings to 18th this year. That’s because the team was actually sold to a new majority owner in recent months, with Ryan Smith assuming control of the franchise at its new $1.66 billion valuation.
As that Jazz example shows, the actual amount a team is sold for often exceeds Forbes’ valuation, so these figures should just be viewed as estimates.
- Trail Blazers rookie CJ Elleby impressed coach Terry Stotts with his overall production when injuries thrust Elleby into the rotation on Thursday, Jason Quick of The Athletic writes. The 46th pick of the draft, Elleby had 15 points, seven rebounds and two blocks in 31 minutes. “He asserted himself into the game rather than just watching others play,” Stotts said.
Some of the 22 games that have been postponed due to COVID-19 will be rescheduled for the first half of the season, writes Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. The decision was made “with a specific focus on the teams with the most postponed games to date,” according to a statement from the NBA.
The league wants to avoid overloading teams such as the Wizards and Grizzlies, who have each had six games called off so far. If all those games had been made up in the second half, as originally planned, Washington and Memphis would both have been required to play 41 times in 67 days. The second part of the season will run from March 11 through May 16.
The first change will take effect Tuesday when the Wizards host the Trail Blazers in a game that had been intended for the second half of the season. A Portland-Charlotte game on February 7 has been replaced by a Wizards-Hornets matchup that was originally scheduled for January 20. The Blazers’ game against the Hornets will be put on the second-half schedule.
No other schedule changes have been released so far. A complete list of the postponed games can be found here.
- It’s time for third-year guard Anfernee Simons to assert himself with CJ McCollum sidelined by a foot injury, Jason Quick of The Athletic opines. Simons needs to show he can consistently make 3-pointers, run the team and defend without fouling, Quick says. In Simons’ last outing, he scored six points in 15 minutes on Monday. The Trail Blazers picked up their 2021/22 option on Simons last month.
The NBA has postponed the Grizzlies‘ next three games, the league announced in a press release. Memphis is being affected by the NBA’s contact tracing protocols and, as a result, has a number of players unavailable.
The affected games are as follows:
- Friday, January 22 at Portland vs. the Trail Blazers.
- Sunday, January 24 at Memphis vs. the Kings.
- Monday, January 25 at Memphis vs. the Kings.
The Grizzlies had been scheduled to play in Portland vs. the Blazers on Wednesday night, but that game had to be postponed as well.
As of Monday, Jonas Valanciunas was the only Grizzlies player who was ruled out due to the league’s health and safety protocols, with Jaren Jackson Jr., Justise Winslow, and Jontay Porter all sidelined due to injuries.
While the NBA’s contact tracing protocols have affected more players since Monday, it doesn’t sound as if those players have been asked to complete week-long quarantine periods yet, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Wojnarowski tweets that the COVID-19 exposure within the Grizzlies’ organization may be isolated, and that the league is “erring on the side of caution” by deciding to not have the team play its next few games as scheduled.
Chris Herrington of The Daily Memphian adds (via Twitter) that the Grizzlies, for now at least, have just one active case of the coronavirus.
Following this series of postponements, the Grizzlies’ next game (vs. the Bulls) is set to be played on Wednesday, January 27 in Memphis. At that point, it will have been more than a week since the team was first affected by contact tracing. If there are no additional positive tests or other setbacks, that game shouldn’t be in jeopardy.
The NBA has now postponed 20 games in 2020/21, as seen in our tracker. The growing number of postponements will make it a challenge for certain teams to play a full 72-game season.