- Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard believes he can be a viable candidate for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award in 2020/21, as Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com writes. “I feel like I’ve had a few MVP-level seasons, I just think with those seasons, you’ve got to be winning,” Lillard said. “I think the two years that we were a three-seed back-to-back years, I thought I had big years, it was just that guys on one and two seed teams had big years as well. That was that. But I feel like if we’re a winning team and we’re in that top two, top three, then I think it’s definitely a real possibility.”
The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on December 22, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.
With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.
It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.
We’ll turn today to the Northwest…
Denver Nuggets
- 2019/20 record: 46-27
- Over/under for 2020/21: 44.5 wins (45-27)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Nuggets poll.
Utah Jazz
- 2019/20 record: 44-28
- Over/under for 2020/21: 42.5 wins (43-29)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Jazz poll.
Portland Trail Blazers
- 2019/20 record: 35-39
- Over/under for 2020/21: 41.5 wins (42-30)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Trail Blazers poll.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2019/20 record: 19-45
- Over/under for 2020/21: 29.5 wins (30-42)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Timberwolves poll.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 2019/20 record: 44-28
- Over/under for 2020/21: 22.5 wins (23-49)
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Al Horford, George Hill, Trevor Ariza, Justin Jackson, Ty Jerome, T.J. Leaf, Darius Miller, Kenrich Williams, Admiral Schofield, Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon
- Lost: Chris Paul, Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroder, Nerlens Noel, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Deonte Burton, Andre Roberson
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Thunder poll.
Previous voting results:
- Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
- Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
- Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
- New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)
- After undergoing left ankle surgery in September, Trail Blazers power forward Zach Collins went through a light, half-speed workout this week, per Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com (Twitter link). Holdahl suggests that Portland hopes to have Collins back on the court in mid-to-late January.
Trail Blazers wing Gary Trent Jr. intends to play out the 2020/21 season and reach restricted free agency rather than signing an early contract extension, as Jason Quick of The Athletic tweets.
Trent had a strong showing during the NBA’s restart in Orlando, averaging 16.9 PPG on .516/.507/.778 in eight seeding games (34.1 MPG) as the Blazers clinched a playoff spot. He had recorded 7.7 PPG on .426/.388/.833 shooting in 53 games (20.0 MPG) prior to the hiatus before emerging as one of the team’s top rotation players in the summer.
A former second-round pick, Trent is on a minimum-salary contract, but would be eligible to sign an extension that starts at 120% of the league’s estimated average salary. That would give Portland the flexibility to offer him up to $53.76MM over four years, though there’s no guarantee the team would go that high. He’d be eligible for a larger starting salary as a free agent.
Trent, who will turn 22 in January, recently signed with Klutch Sports — at the time, I noted that Klutch clients often opt for free agency over agreeing to early extensions. Choosing to go the free agency route is a signal that Trent is willing to bet on himself as he enters a contract year.
The Blazers would have the ability to match any offer sheet Trent signs as a restricted free agent next offseason.
- Among the three members of the Trail Blazers organization to test positive for the virus was one player, coach Terry Stotts told Jason Quick of The Athletic (Twitter link). Zach Collins (ankle) and Jusuf Nurkic, who just arrived Sunday, also missed the first practice on Tuesday.
The Trail Blazers organization discovered three positive novel coronavirus tests among its personnel across the last four days. The club will be closing its Tualatin, Oregon practice facility, it announced in an official tweet.
In a team press release, president of operations Neil Olshey further addressed the COVID-19 test results. “Out of an abundance of caution, having completed contact tracing, we are closing our practice facility today for deep cleaning while we run confirmatory tests,” he said.
The identities of the personnel afflicted were not disclosed, in accordance with league guidelines for coronavirus testing disclosures. The Trail Blazers held limited practices and media sessions this week.
Portland has shored up its front court and wing depth this offseason. The Trail Blazers have added versatile three-and-D forward Robert Covington, defensive-oriented wing Derrick Jones Jr., and high-upside center Harry Giles III.
The Trail Blazers also retained forward Carmelo Anthony for bench scoring and brought back reserve center Enes Kanter, who enjoyed an impressive playoff run with the club in 2019.
According to Jason Anderson of the Sacramento Bee, the league will decide whether to move forward with the Blazers’ scheduled preseason games against the Kings, set for this Friday, December 11, and the following Sunday, December 13.
The Knicks have 15 days to decide whether to extend Frank Ntilikina‘s rookie contract, but the 22-year-old guard still doesn’t have an established role with the team, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. Given Ntilikina’s uneven NBA career so far and the logjam in the team’s backcourt, Berman believes a trade before the March deadline is more likely than an extension.
Ntilikina brushed off questions about a possible new deal, saying, “The business part is going to take care of itself. I’m here to get better every day, to get this team better.’’
Ntilikina’s chances to prove himself to new coach Tom Thibodeau might be limited. Elfrid Payton, who started the most games at point guard for the Knicks last year, re-signed during the offseason. Dennis Smith Jr. is also back, and New York added Austin Rivers in free agency.
“We have a lot of guards on this team, a lot of competitors, which is going to bring the best out of the team,’’ Ntilikina said. “We’re going to compete hard for minutes and the coach is going to decide what he wants to do. We have trust in him. He knows what he’s doing. He knows his job. So he’s going to put the best players together on the court.’’
There’s more from New York:
- Julius Randle isn’t concerned that the Knicks used their lottery pick to add Obi Toppin, a player with similar skills who may eventually replace him at power forward, Berman adds in a separate story. Many observers don’t think Randle and Toppin can be effective playing together, but Randle insists they’ll find a way. “He’s an athletic player from what I know,’’ he said. “I haven’t seen much of him. But he can shoot it and run the floor. So I think we’ll be able to complement each other very well. The game is position-less now. To have many guys be versatile and do many things is great.’’
- Team president Leon Rose reportedly had interest in bringing Carmelo Anthony, one of his former CAA clients, back to New York, but Anthony didn’t consider the move once it became clear the Knicks were going to continue with their youth movement, Berman writes in another piece. “They are rebuilding and figuring out what’s in their near future,” Anthony said. “It was me personally wanting to be part of a situation I was already comfortable with (in Portland). I just finished playing with these guys two, three months ago. I felt it was the right fit at this point of time where I’m at right now this particular year.’’
- Mitchell Robinson is moving on to his sixth agent as he enters his third year in the league, according to Berman. Robinson is leaving Klutch Sports to sign with the Wasserman Group.
- Trail Blazers swingman Rodney Hood is ready for a fresh start after a year filled with personal tragedy and recovery from an Achilles tear he suffered last December, notes Aaron Fentress of The Oregonian. Hood is close to being cleared for five-on-five play and is expected to back up new additions Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr.
- Carmelo Anthony realizes he’ll probably be coming off the bench this season with the Trail Blazers but he admits it’s a difficult adjustment for a longtime All-Star, ESPN’s Royce Young tweets. “I tried it in Houston but it was only seven or eight games,” he said. “This is new for me. … I had to take a deep breath and figure it out. We’ll make it work.”
The Trail Blazers were aggressive about seeking out roster upgrades this offseason, trading for Robert Covington and Enes Kanter while signing Derrick Jones in free agency and bringing back Rodney Hood on a new deal.
According to Jason Quick of The Athletic, a push from Damian Lillard provided president of basketball operations Neil Olshey with some extra motivation as he completed those transactions. Lillard said he’s been “transparent” with Olshey about wanting the team to make roster moves that give the Trail Blazers a “real shot” at winning a title.
“That’s just what I’ve been communicating to him: ‘Come on man, let’s really make a run for it. Let’s go for it,'” the Trail Blazers’ star point guard said. “Let’s not be the organization that says, ‘Oh, we’ve made the playoffs this many years in a row. We’ve got a good culture, we’ve got this …’ Let’s put ourselves out there and try to do whatever we can do to give ourselves a real shot. Let’s try to bring the glory back to Portland.”
Covington and Jones will likely open the regular season as the Trail Blazers’ starting forwards, head coach Terry Stotts said on Tuesday, per Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com. That would mean Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench, which is something the team discussed with him before he re-signed.