- The Trail Blazers have expressed interest in Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday, according to The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor (Twitter link). O’Connor added that a potential trade between the teams remains unlikely, however, citing Portland’s lack of potential assets to include in an offer.
The NBA revealed today that the estimated average salary for the 2020/21 season will be $10,000,000, while the Early Bird exception amount will be $10,047,450, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN and Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report (Twitter links).
The estimated average salary for a league year is defined as 104.5% of the average salary for the NBA’s previous league year, while the Early Bird amount is 105% of the previous average salary. Those figures are important for different reasons.
When a player signs a veteran contract extension, he can receive a starting salary worth either 120% of the final-year salary in his current deal or 120% of the league’s estimated average salary. So, extension-eligible players earning below $10MM in 2020/21 will be able to receive $12MM in the first season of a four-year extension.
As Marks notes, this would apply to players like Trail Blazers wing Gary Trent Jr., Nuggets guard Monte Morris, and Hornets guard Devonte’ Graham. If they want to sign extensions this fall that go into effect in 2021/22, they’d be eligible to receive up to $53.76MM over four years.
As for the Early Bird exception, it represents the starting salary that teams can offer to their own free agents using Early Bird rights, assuming that amount is greater than 175% of the player’s previous salary.
This will apply this offseason to free agents like Lakers point guard Rajon Rondo and Pistons big man Christian Wood. If their own teams want to re-sign them using Early Bird rights, the offers won’t be able to exceed $10,047,450 in year one. In order to offer a higher starting salary, those teams would have to use cap room (which the Pistons will have, but the Lakers won’t).
Because the salary cap isn’t increasing or decreasing for 2020/21, other values tied to the cap will remain unchanged. This applies to the maximum and minimum salaries, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, as we explained earlier in the week. The tax apron ($138,928,000) and the limit on cash sent/received in trades ($5,617,000) will also be the same in ’20/21 as they were in ’19/20.
Just four NBA teams finished the 2019/20 season in tax territory and none of those clubs will be on the hook for a substantial bill. As Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press relays (via Twitter), this season’s four taxpayers, along with the penalties they’ll pay, are as follows:
- Portland Trail Blazers: $5,082,084
- Miami Heat: $2,461,242
- Oklahoma City Thunder: $2,102,278
- Minnesota Timberwolves: $497,502
Since half of the luxury tax penalty money is reallocated to the teams that finished out of the tax, those 26 non-tax clubs are in line for modest payouts of $195,060, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks (via Twitter). Marks notes that the $10,143,106 in total tax penalties represents the lowest leaguewide amount since the NBA introduced its luxury tax system in 2002/03.
While those four teams wouldn’t have been subjected to big tax bills either way, they received a small break from the NBA, according to Marks and Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report (Twitter links). The league implemented its anticipated tax adjustment for 2020/21 a year early, reducing teams’ penalties by the percentage that the league’s basketball related income (BRI) fell short of the preseason projection.
As cap expert Albert Nahmad and Shams Charania of The Athletic detail (via Twitter), the NBA ultimately finished with a BRI figure of $6.865 billion after initially projecting $8.034 billion. That means the league only earned about 85.4% of its anticipated BRI and in turn only charged taxpaying teams 85.4% of their tax penalties.
For example, Portland should have owed $5,947,943 in tax penalties, but was only charged $5,082,084. The other three taxpaying clubs received similar reductions.
The Blazers only saved about $866K based on the league’s leniency and the other three clubs saved less than that, but the temporary change the tax system could have a significantly greater impact in 2020/21, when more clubs project to be in the tax and the NBA is bracing for a more substantial loss in revenue.
The Lakers are expected to target veteran forward Serge Ibaka in free agency this year, Sean Deveney of Heavy.com reports, citing league executives.
Ibaka, 31, averaged 15.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 27 minutes per game for the Raptors last season, proving his worth as a frontcourt option off the bench or as a starter. He holds 11 seasons of NBA experience, making stops with Oklahoma City and Orlando before reaching Toronto via trade in 2017.
Deveney suggests that the Raptors are still probably the favorites to sign Ibaka this fall, but that the big man may be willing to leave for a chance to compete for a championship elsewhere. The Celtics, Clippers, Heat, Mavericks, and Trail Blazers are among the other clubs expected to have interest, per Deveney, though the defending champions could probably give Ibaka the best chance to play for a title.
“From a personnel standpoint, he is exactly the kind of combo big guy that team (the Lakers) needs,” one general manager said. “They have had interest in him before and they will again. When he is healthy he is an excellent spot starter at the 5 (center) and the 4 (power forward). He is as good a bench big guy as there is in the league. He was a really credible 3-point threat last year. If he is willing to accept what the Lakers can afford to give him, I know they would want him.”
The Lakers own a mid-level exception worth $9.3MM, though it’s unclear whether the team prefers to spend it on one player or split it among multiple free agents. L.A. is coming off its first title since 2010 and has several players set to reach free agency, including Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris.
Anthony Davis ($28.75MM), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($8.49MM), Avery Bradley ($5MM), JaVale McGee ($4.2MM) and Rajon Rondo ($2.69MM) also have player options, with Davis expected to re-sign after opting out and Rondo and Caldwell-Pope both likely to decline their options.
The NBA plans to start free agency shortly after the Nov. 18 draft, though exact details remain unknown.
- Gary Trent Jr. will become extension-eligible this offseason, and Jason Quick of The Athletic explains why the Trail Blazers will probably consider locking him up in the coming weeks or months rather than risk the possibility of a sizeable offer sheet in 2021 when Trent can become a restricted free agent.
- It’s unclear what sort of leaguewide interest there is in Magic forward Aaron Gordon. Lowe points to the Trail Blazers as a potential match, but says the two teams have never seriously discussed a swap involving Gordon and CJ McCollum and isn’t sure whether lesser assets like Zach Collins or Anfernee Simons would appeal to Orlando.
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- It’s unclear what sort of leaguewide interest there is in Magic forward Aaron Gordon. Lowe points to the Trail Blazers as a potential match, but says the two teams have never seriously discussed a swap involving Gordon and CJ McCollum and isn’t sure whether lesser assets like Zach Collins or Anfernee Simons would appeal to Orlando.
- Danny Leroux of The Athletic previews the offseason salary cap situation for the Trail Blazers, observing that team president Neil Olshey may have to make decisions on team depth, several veteran free agents on the team, and whether or not to offer a contract extension to fourth-year power forward Zach Collins, who will otherwise become a restricted free agent in 2021.
- Adding free agent forward Derrick Jones Jr. is an easy way for the Trail Blazers to improve their defense, writes Jason Quick of The Athletic. Jones is only 23 and has proven to be an excellent defender who can block shots and switch on pick and rolls. Several teams will likely have their eyes on him, so Quick believes Portland should be willing to offer its entire mid-level exception of roughly $9MM if that’s what it takes to land him.
- Carmelo Anthony is looking at a reduced role on a healthier Trail Blazers team next season and will probably search for a better opportunity in free agency, Quick adds in the same piece. Anthony saw a lot of minutes before the hiatus at power forward in place of Zach Collins, who was recovering from shoulder surgery. In Orlando, he filled in at small forward for Trevor Ariza, who opted out of the restart. They’re both expected to be in training camp, along with Rodney Hood, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon last December.
After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.
Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.
While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.
Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.
The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Nuggets: +1200
- Rockets: +1200
- Mavericks: +1400
- Trail Blazers: +1800
- Jazz: +2500
- Pelicans: +2500
- Suns: +3300
- Thunder: +4000
- Grizzlies: +5000
- Kings: +12500
- Spurs: +12500
- Timberwolves: +12500
As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.
Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!
- Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com tweets that Trail Blazers starting shooting guard CJ McCollum expects to resume all his basketball activities with no restrictions in November as he continues to rehabilitate from the lower back injury he incurred during the NBA’s summer restart. “Got a little plan together from a rehab standpoint to kind of make sure everything is in place,” McCollum said.