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Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

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Damian Lillard Hopes To Return Saturday

April 6th, 2018 at 11:56am CST by Luke Adams

Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard missed Thursday’s game against Houston due to a sprained ankle, but he’s “feeling better,” head coach Terry Stotts said last night (Twitter link via ESPN’s Tim MacMahon).

After Stotts indicated that Lillard should be back sometime before the end of the season, the point guard himself told Jason Quick of NBC Sports Northwest (Twitter link) that he hopes to return on Saturday in San Antonio. The Trail Blazers have locked up a playoff spot, so there’s no pressure for Lillard to rush back, but he likely wants to get some reps before the postseason gets underway and help Portland secure the No. 3 seed.

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Damian Lillard Injures Left Ankle

April 4th, 2018 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

Damian Lillard rolled his left ankle during the fourth quarter of the Trail Blazers’ loss to the Mavericks on Tuesday night, and while he was able to finish the game, Portland’s star point guard said the ankle became more painful and more swollen later in the night, per Jason Quick of NBC Sports Northwest. According to Quick, Lillard had to be transported from the locker room to the team bus on a cart after the game.

Although the injury may not compromise Lillard’s playoff availability, it’s unclear whether he’ll be ready to go for Thursday’s game in Houston, or if the Blazers will play it safe and hold him out of some or all of the club’s final four regular season contests.

“I think I have a pretty high pain tolerance, but I’m going to be smart about it,” Lillard said, according to Quick. “It’s the end of the season, we are going into the playoffs, so I have to be smart that one thing doesn’t turn into another.”

As Lillard notes, the 48-30 Blazers have clinched a playoff spot. The team also has a fairly strong hold on the No. 3 seed in the West, though that position could be jeopardized by a few losses to finish the season — the Jazz and Spurs are both still within reach of the No. 3 spot, with matching 45-33 records. As such, the Blazers can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal quite yet.

We’ll pass along updates on Lillard’s recovery timetable as they become available.

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Nurse, Vanterpool Top List Of Rising Head Coach Candidates

April 3rd, 2018 at 3:16pm CST by Luke Adams

No NBA head coaches were replaced during the 2017 offseason, but that’s very unlikely to be the case for 2018. Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post and Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports suggest that as many as 10 or 11 teams could be on the lookout for a new head coach this offseason.

That list of teams includes three teams with interim head coaches – the Suns, Grizzlies, and Bucks – as well as lottery teams like the Knicks, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Hawks. Playoff contenders like the Nuggets and Clippers could also consider a change, particularly if they miss out on the postseason.

Not all of those teams will replace their current head coaches, but there should be a good deal of turnover in the NBA’s coaching ranks this spring. That could open up the door for assistant coaches or G League head coaches who haven’t yet had the opportunity to run their own NBA squads to interview for those jobs in the coming weeks.

With that in mind, Mannix spoke to over three dozen “high-ranking team executives,” getting each of those execs to name two assistants they view as viable head coaching candidates. Mannix’s only criteria? The executives polled couldn’t name assistants from their own staffs, and the assistants named couldn’t have any NBA or major-college head coaching experience already.

Here are the top vote-getters in Mannix’s poll, all of whom were mentioned by at least three different executives:

  1. Nick Nurse (Raptors assistant)
  2. David Vanterpool (Trail Blazers assistant)
  3. Igor Kokoskov (Jazz assistant)
  4. Stephen Silas (Hornets associate head coach)
  5. Adrian Griffin (Thunder assistant)
  6. Nate Tibbetts (Trail Blazers assistant)
  7. Chris Finch (Pelicans assistant)
  8. Jerry Stackhouse (Raptors 905 head coach)
  9. Ryan Saunders (Timberwolves assistant)
  10. Jay Larranaga (Celtics assistant)

Of course, not every team seeking a new head coach in the offseason will be eyeing candidates in this pool. Some clubs will want a candidate with previous head coaching experience, and there should be no shortage of those — Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, David Blatt, David Fizdale, and Monty Williams are among the veteran coaches who have been linked to various teams already. Other clubs may target a coach from the NCAA pool, such as Villanova’s Jay Wright.

Still, the NBA assistants listed above are viewed around the league as future head coaching candidates, and are the names to keep an eye on if your favorite team is considering a change on its bench.

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Ed Davis Out 7 To 14 Days With Sprained Ankle

March 31st, 2018 at 5:17pm CST by Arthur Hill
  • An MRI conducted today showed that Trail Blazers forward Ed Davis has a sprained right ankle, according to Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com (Twitter link). Davis will be re-evaluated in seven to 14 days and may miss the start of the playoffs.
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RFA Rumors: Parker, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle

March 30th, 2018 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.

Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…

  • Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
  • The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
  • The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
  • In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
  • The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
  • Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.
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2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Portland Trail Blazers

March 29th, 2018 at 10:17pm CST by Austin Kent

The Trail Blazers are burdened by some unpalatable long-term contracts, but the $112MM already on the books for 2018/19 is tolerable given that they’re in the running for home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs.

With little foreseeable cap space projected until the summer of 2020 at the earliest, the Blazers will have to make some decisions on whether to keep the current core together or make more ambitious, financially-driven moves to position themselves for the future.

The 2017/18 campaign saw general manager Neil Olshey unload 22-year-old Noah Vonleh at the trade deadline in order to duck under the luxury tax line. Could a deep postseason run in the spring be enough to convince franchise owner Paul Allen to blow by that threshold next year?

Jusuf Nurkic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $8MM contract in 2014.
While Nurkic’s value tends to fluctuate from month to month, there’s no denying that he’s capable of big things if given an opportunity. Were it not for the Blazers’ financial binds, bringing back the Bosnian Beast on a significant deal would be a no-brainer. Alas, making or matching a significant offer for the big man would vault Portland well into the luxury tax, something that we’re not quite sure the club is willing to do yet. It would be a shame for the Blazers to watch Nurkic walk for nothing, so expect them to work the phones aggressively to see if they can find a way to make it work. If they can’t, he’ll get paid elsewhere, even with a glut of other available centers on the market.

Pat Connaughton, SG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2015.
After two years of sparse playing time, Connaughton has carved out a role for himself in Portland’s rotation. The dual-threat athlete won’t break the bank as a restricted free agent, but could be a welcomed addition should the Blazers look to bring the familiar face back on the cheap.

Ed Davis, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20MM deal in 2015.
While Davis has consistently established himself as an efficient player in reserve minutes, he’s never taken the leap to make a case for himself as a starter. The big man should be able to at least replicate his last contract considering his per-36 rates of 10.2 points and 14.0 boards, but don’t bank on that coming in Portland — he’s a replaceable piece of the current puzzle.

Shabazz Napier, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM contract in 2014.
It took Napier four years and three teams to find a home in the NBA, but he has finally come into his own in Oregon. The prolific 26-year-old combo guard has slotted in admirably behind Portland’s celebrated starting duo – a duo consisting of two other prolific combo guards – and has stepped up occasionally when called upon. In nine games as a starter, the former UConn standout has posted 15.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists per contest, and may have shown just enough in those stints to draw an offer sheet out of a desperate team in restricted free agency. It’s hard to imagine Olshey digging deep to match an aggressive offer from a team with cap space to spare but that wouldn’t be for a lack of interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Blazers’ Maurice Harkless Undergoes Knee Procedure

March 28th, 2018 at 3:51pm CST by Dana Gauruder

MARCH 28, 3:51pm: After undergoing a procedure on his left knee today, Harkless will be re-evaluated in two weeks, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link). The regular season will end two weeks from today, so it sounds like the Blazers likely won’t get Harkless back until the playoffs. The forward’s recovery could take about two to three weeks, league sources tell Wojnarowski.

MARCH 27, 9:41pm: Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless will undergo an arthroscopy Wednesday to remove a loose body in his left knee, the team announced in a press release. His timetable to return to action will be determined following the procedure.

Harkless is averaging 6.5 PPG and 2.7 RPG in 21.4 MPG. He’s coming off one of his best performances of the season, as he posted 16 points, six rebounds, four assists and four blocks against the Thunder on Sunday. He has scored 16 or more points in four of the last six games.

The Blazers are currently third in the Western Conference and this could be a significant blow if Harkless is not ready to return by the postseason. This leaves the club thin at the small forward spot, since Evan Turner and Harkless have played the bulk of the minutes there.

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Eight RFAs Well Positioned For Long-Term Contracts

March 23rd, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a monster payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team often have to overpay to do it — just ask Tim Hardaway Jr., who almost certainly did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted last summer. Otto Porter, Tony Snell, Joe Ingles, Cristiano Felicio, and Mason Plumlee were among the other 2017 RFAs who secured lucrative long-term deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down big four-year offers last offseason and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. Alex Len and Nikola Mirotic were among the other RFAs who remained on the market for months before eventually signing modest deals.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a lucrative long-term deal is generally preferred, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2018 free agent period, league-wide cap space isn’t expected to be as abundant as it has been over the past couple years, but there are still a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big contracts. Here are eight of them:

  1. Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela may not have the dynamic sort of skill set that some of the NBA’s best big men possess, but he does exactly what the Rockets need him to — finish at the basket (.651 FG%), grab rebounds (10.9 RPG), and protect the rim (1.8 BPG). Barring a major surprise, I’d expect Houston to go well into tax territory to ensure that he and Chris Paul both get lucrative new deals this summer.
  2. Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): After opening the season with a red-hot shooting stretch (.595 3PT% in his first 10 games), Gordon has posted more pedestrian shooting numbers since then (.299 3PT% in his last 39 games). The former fourth overall pick becomes an extremely dangerous offensive weapon when his three-pointer is working, but even without it, he makes for an intriguing free agent option. Gordon is still just 22 years old, and coming off a career year, he’s a good bet to land a big offer sheet from a team with cap room if the Magic drag their feet in negotiations.
  3. Julius Randle, F/C (Lakers): With Larry Nance Jr. sent to Cleveland and Kyle Kuzma unable to sustain his hot start all season long, Randle has been the Lakers‘ most impressive big man for the last three months. Since entering the starting lineup on December 29, the former Kentucky standout has averaged 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG, making a case for a spot on the Lakers’ long-term plans even if the team is able to land a top outside free agent or two this summer. The Mavericks have been cited most frequently as a potential suitor for Randle if he seeks out an offer sheet.
  4. Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): Although injuries have prevented LaVine from taking another step forward this season, that’s unlikely to significantly impact his free agent value. The Bulls traded for LaVine last offseason knowing that a pricey new deal was on the horizon, and there has been no indication that the team has wavered on the idea of locking him up to a long-term pact.
  5. Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): Had Parker stayed healthy during his first four NBA seasons, he may already have a maximum salary extension secured. Instead, two ACL injuries have created uncertainty about what his next contract will look like. The former No. 2 overall pick reportedly passed on an offer last fall that would have paid him $18MM annually, and while he may not do better than that on the open market, his market shouldn’t crater. Parker already has a 20+ PPG season under his belt, and has put up career-best shooting numbers since returning from his latest ACL tear — his scoring potential will be tantalizing enough for a team with cap flexibility to take a shot on him if the Bucks don’t re-sign him right away.
  6. Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): Nurkic has been somewhat inconsistent this season, particularly on offense, but the Trail Blazers‘ defense continues to perform better and commit fewer fouls when he’s on the court, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote this week. A 23-year-old center capable of anchoring a defense for a top-six team in the NBA is a rarity — that makes him a good bet to do well for himself in free agency.
  7. Marcus Smart, G (Celtics): Like Nurkic, Smart isn’t necessarily a reliable go-to option on offense, but his defensive ability makes him a valuable rotation piece. According to Basketball-Reference’s on/off-court stats, the Celtics allow about five fewer points per 100 possessions and force more turnovers when Smart is on the floor. While his shooting numbers (.367/.301/.729) leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old should at least be in line for an Andre Roberson-type contract (three years, $30MM).
  8. Fred VanVleet, G (Raptors): The only player on this list who wasn’t a first-round pick, VanVleet actually wasn’t drafted at all, joining the Raptors as a rookie free agent in 2016. He has developed into a solid backup point guard this season, averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.5 APG with a .450/.432/.867 shooting line since the start of 2018. His success creates an interesting predicament for the Raptors, who project to be a taxpayer in 2018/19, and could have to contend with a rival suitor back-loading an offer sheet for VanVleet via the Arenas provision. Toronto may ultimately need to trade another expensive contract if they want to retain VanVleet without committing to a huge tax bill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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