Trail Blazers Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Northwest Division:

Isaiah Thomas, Nuggets, 30, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2018
The sad and swift decline in Thomas’ career hit a new low a couple of weeks ago when the veteran was informed by Nuggets coach Michael Malone he would not be in the rotation going forward. Thomas didn’t even make his season debut until mid-February due to his hip condition. He has only seen action in one game since March 8 — a scoreless seven-minute stint in Boston, where his career peaked two seasons ago when he averaged 28.9 PPG. Thomas will probably have to settle for another one year, “show me” contract this summer.

Tyus Jones, Timberwolves, 22, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6.54MM deal in 2015
Jones has received steady playing time since late February and is now the starter by default with Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose out for the rest of the season. He isn’t much of a scoring threat but he rarely turns the ball over. He’s averaging less than one turnover per game in 25.8 MPG this month. Teague has a $19MM option on his contract for next season and is expected to exercise it, so Jones’ starting gig probably won’t last. The Timberwolves can make Jones a restricted free agent by extending a qualifying offer of $3.57MM and that seems likely, given his age and steady hand at the point.

Markieff Morris, Thunder, 29, SF/PF (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $573K deal in 2019
The above salary figure doesn’t reflect that Morris was making $8.6MM before he was traded by the Wizards to the Pelicans, who waived him. He seemed to be walking into a good situation with a playoff-bound team but hasn’t made much of an impact. He’s averaging 6.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 15.9 MPG in 17 appearances with Oklahoma City. He played just seven scoreless minutes against Indiana on Wednesday. Morris brings enough to the table to be a rotation piece but it’s increasing unlikely he’ll get a starter-level offer on the open market.

Enes Kanter, Trail Blazers, 26, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $653K deal in 2019
Jusuf Nurkic‘s gruesome leg injury changes the outlook for Kanter in the short- and long-term. He’ll suddenly be playing heavy minutes for Portland, which signed him as a backup after the Knicks reached a buyout agreement with him on his $18.6MM salary this season. A productive postseason by Kanter should enhance his prospects as an unrestricted free agent. He’s not going to make anyone’s All-Defense team but he’s a double-double machine when he plays half the game. While it seems Kanter has been around for awhile, he’s still only 26 and in the prime of his career.

Derrick Favors, Jazz, 27, PF (Up)– Signed to a two-year, $37.6MM deal in 2018
Favors’ $16.9MM contract for next season isn’t guaranteed unless he’s on the roster through July 6. That seemed unlikely from the time he signed the deal but it’s not a given the Jazz will let him go. That salary isn’t outrageous for a starter and the Jazz have plenty of cap room to absorb that salary. Plus, they’d need to have a solid plan to replace Favors, who has posted a 21.9 PER this season. Favors nearly got dealt to Memphis for Mike Conley and Utah could use his expiring contract in a blockbuster trade next season if it retains him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jusuf Nurkic In Position To Earn $1.25MM Bonus

Jusuf Nurkic‘s season came to an early end this week when he suffered a horrific leg injury that figures to sideline him for much of the 2019/20 campaign as well. While it was a devastating blow for Nurkic and the Trail Blazers, the veteran center might get a bit of good news before the regular season.

As Bobby Marks of ESPN.com details in an Insider-only story, Nurkic will earn a $1.25MM bonus if Portland records at least 50 wins this season. The Trail Blazers’ record currently sits at 47-27, giving the team eight more games to win three more games, which seems like a reasonable bet. If Nurkic does earn that bonus, the Blazers’ projected tax bill will increase by more than $2MM and the big man’s cap hits in future seasons would rise, Marks notes.

Super-Max Extension In Play For Lillard This Offseason

As a lock for one of the six All-NBA guard spots this spring, Damian Lillard will become eligible for a super-max extension with the Trail Blazers this summer. And according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, unlike Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Anthony Davis, Lillard has “sent signals” that he’ll be interested in signing a super-max deal to stick with his current team.

As Windhorst observes, the ownership situation in Portland is a little unstable following the death of longtime owner Paul Allen, and Lillard met with Allen last season before his passing to discuss the direction of the franchise, which raised some eyebrows. However, Portland’s star point guard doesn’t have any concerns about ownership and he’s “very comfortable with his commitment” to the franchise, Windhorst writes.

Lillard will still have two years and $61MM+ left on his current contract after this season, so gaining super-max eligibility would allow him to tack on four new years to that deal. Assuming the Blazers put the offer on the table, the extension would start at 35% of the cap in 2021/22. The exact figures aren’t yet known, since they’ll depend on where the cap ends up that year, but Windhorst estimates a four-year super-max would be worth approximately $194MM.

Because Lillard will have earned All-NBA honors in two consecutive years, he’d also remain eligible for a super-max extension in 2020 if he were to pass on one this year. While doing so would put him in line for an even larger payday, Windhorst suggests that there’s no indication the 28-year-old wants to put it off.

With Lillard apparently on board, an offseason extension seems likely, but Portland will still have to actually put the offer on the table. The Blazers remain fully committed to their franchise player, so I’d be surprised if they don’t make that super-max offer, but it’s worth noting that the four-year extension would start in Lillard’s age-31 season, which is still two years away.

Locking up a player a couple years in advance for his early-30s seasons is a risky play — just ask the Wizards, whose super-max for John Wall was completed in 2017 and won’t actually go into effect until this July. Still, the Blazers are a good bet to take that risk.

Blazers Lose Jusuf Nurkic With “Devastating” Injury

2:55pm: Nurkic underwent surgery to repair his compound fractures today, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. While Nurkic has been ruled out indefinitely, the good news is that there was no nerve or muscle damage in his leg, league sources tell Charania.

8:57am: Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic suffered compound fractures to his left tibia and fibula last night, putting him out of action for the rest of the season and probably well into next season, writes Joe Freeman of The Oregonian.

The injury occurred in the second overtime of a win over the Nets as Nurkic landed on several players after jumping for a rebound. The crowd went silent before chanting Nurkic’s name in a show of support. Teammates turned away because of the gruesome nature of the injury.

“It made me sick to my stomach,” Damian Lillard said.

After a long examination by trainers and team doctors, Nurkic received a huge ovation as he was carried off on a stretcher. Coach Terry Stotts called the injury “devastating” as it casts a shadow over the rest of the season for a Portland team that clinched a playoff spot with the victory.

“It’s terrible,” Zach Collins said. “Obviously you never want to see that happen, especially with your own teammate that you go to war with every night. Nurk, he’s been having a hell of a season. He had an amazing game tonight. And for it to end like that for him, it’s just tough. All we can do is be there for him and hope he’s in as little pain as possible and knows that we’ve got his back.”

At age 24, Nurkic was putting together his best season, averaging career highs with 15.6 PPG and 10.4 RPG. He is signed for nearly $25MM over the next two seasons and has a non-guaranteed $12MM salary for 2021/22. His absence should create a greater role for Enes Kanter, who signed with Portland last month after reaching a buyout with the Knicks.

Players from around the NBA sent messages of support on social media last night, while the Trail Blazers struggled to deal with the impact of losing a beloved teammate and a vital part of their hopes for the postseason.

“I’m going to go home and pray for him because this is way bigger than basketball,” Kanter said. “We clinched a playoff spot and we’re not even celebrating. He was a big part of our family — not our team, our family — and I just don’t know what to say. It’s definitely tough.”

McCollum To Miss At Least Four More Games

The Trail Blazers could be without their second-leading scorer, shooting guard C.J. McCollum, for the rest of the regular season, according to an NBA.com report.

McCollum will not accompany the team on its upcoming four-game road trip, coach Terry Stotts told the media on Monday. He hasn’t played since suffering a left knee strain on March 16.

McCollum is averaging 21.3 points while shooting 46.3% from the field, including 38.0% from distance.

The Blazers won’t have another home game until April 3 against Memphis. There will only be a week left in the regular season at that point.

McCollum’s health is a major concern for a team that is trying to avert a second straight postseason flop. The Blazers were swept by New Orleans last season. McCollum has two years left on his four-year, $106.6MM contract and has often been the subject of trade rumors, which will intensify if Portland doesn’t advance in the playoffs this spring.

Northwest Notes: McCollum, Jokic, Millsap, Wolves

While teammate Damian Lillard says he’s mentally preparing for C.J. McCollum to miss most or all of the rest of the regular season with a knee injury, McCollum isn’t ready to specify a target date or even to provide a general recovery timeline. As Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com relays, McCollum says he’s simply taking the injury “day by day.”

“What, did they say I’ll be re-evaluated in one week?” McCollum said when asked about a potential return date. “So, just taking it day by day, I don’t have a timeline that I’m going to give you guys, but I think just based on the research, there’s not a lot of injuries like this that have happened. So timeline is different just depending on the age, how well your body heals, what you’ve done before that and kind of where you’re at. But hopefully I can be back sooner than later.”

As I noted on Tuesday, the Trail Blazers are in a competitive race for a top-four seed, but have an easier schedule than several of their Western Conference rivals, meaning they won’t rush McCollum back onto the court. The important thing for Portland is that the 27-year-old is as close to 100% healthy as possible when the postseason gets underway. He’s due to be re-evaluated this weekend.

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

  • When the Nuggets clinched a playoff spot earlier this week, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap locked in bonuses worth $431K and $150K respectively, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN.com, who adds (via Twitter) that both players will receive additional bonuses if Denver wins a postseason series. As Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports observes (via Twitter), Jokic and Millsap will have slightly higher cap hits next season now that those incentives shift from “unlikely” to “likely.”
  • Cameron Reynolds‘ new multiyear deal with Minnesota is actually a three-year contract that runs through 2020/21, tweets Keith Smith. That means the Timberwolves used a portion of their mid-level exception to sign Reynolds. The deal still isn’t expected to include much – if any – guaranteed money beyond this season.
  • The Timberwolves‘ playoff hopes have been extinguished, but there’s still plenty to watch in Minnesota in the coming weeks, writes Britt Robson of The Athletic. Most pressingly, it remains to be seen who will be making the personnel decisions for the club this offseason or coaching the team next fall, Robson notes.

How All-NBA Choices Could Impact Contract Situations

Last month, we outlined how the Anthony Davis saga in New Orleans could significantly impact what Karl-Anthony Towns next contract looks like.

Towns’ new extension, signed last fall, will start at 30% of the cap if he earns All-NBA honors in 2019, as opposed to 25% of the cap if he misses out on an All-NBA slot. With Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid expected to claim two All-NBA center spots, Towns is in position to grab the third, in part due to Davis’ trade request — not only will AD’s role in the Pelicans’ dysfunction be considered, but he’s playing limited minutes down the stretch while Towns puts up some of the best numbers of his career.

Assuming Towns does earn an All-NBA nod, it’ll be a $30MM+ decision by award voters, bumping the projected value of his five-year deal from about $158MM to nearly $190MM. However, KAT isn’t the only player who could have his contract situation significantly impacted by this year’s All-NBA selections.

As Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com and Andrew Sharp of SI.com have detailed this week, there’s a lot at stake for a handful of players who are candidates for this year’s All-NBA teams. Let’s break it down, taking a closer look at some players who could become eligible for a super-max contract this year…

The All-NBA locks:

While there’s some debate over which six guards will get All-NBA nods, Lillard looks like a slam dunk for a spot on the first or second team — Lillard, Stephen Curry and James Harden appear to be the strongest candidates for the two guard spots on that first team.

Assuming he does, in fact, earn All-NBA honors, Lillard will become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension. His current contract runs through 2020/21, with no options, so he’d be eligible to tack on four extra years to that deal, starting in 2021/22.

For now, i’s impossible to say exactly what the NBA’s salary cap will be in 2021/22, but based on projections for ’19/20 ($109MM) and ’20/21 ($118MM), we can safely assume a max deal for Lillard starting in ’21/22 will be worth a lot more than it would be now. Conservatively, estimating a $120MM cap, Lillard’s super-max extension would start at $42MM and would be worth $188MM+ over four years.

With Lillard in position to gain eligibility for a super-max extension, the big question in Portland this summer could be whether the Trail Blazers will actually put that offer on the table. There have been no indications that either Lillard or the Blazers wants to end their union, but the club might be wary of offering such a massive deal to a player who will be 31 years old when the four-year deal begins — that decision hasn’t worked out well for the Wizards with John Wall.

As for Antetokounmpo, he’s on track to become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension too, and that decision figures to be a much easier one for the Bucks. However, Milwaukee won’t be able to actually put that super-max offer on the table until the 2020 offseason, once Giannis has seven years of NBA experience under his belt.

The All-NBA guard contenders:

Read more

Lillard Preparing As If McCollum Will Miss Rest Of Regular Season

After suffering a left knee injury over the weekend, C.J. McCollum is expected to be re-evaluated this Saturday. However, Damian Lillard told reporters last night that he’s not necessarily counting on his backcourt mate to be back anytime soon.

As Jason Quick of The Athletic relays (via Twitter), Lillard wants McCollum to get back to 100% before he returns and is mentally preparing for him to miss the rest of the regular season.

“I don’t want him to have to rush it. And when he does come back, I want him to be himself and be healthy,” Lillard said, per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian (Twitter link). “So, in my mind, we’re going to finish the regular season without him.”

The Trail Blazers remain in a tight race for home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason. Currently, the team holds the No. 4 seed, with a 1.5-game cushion over the Spurs and Thunder and a two-game lead over Utah.

While Portland would certainly like to have McCollum back in its lineup as soon as possible to secure a top-four spot in the conference, it makes more sense to hold him out until he’s fully healthy — especially since the team’s schedule isn’t particularly brutal down the stretch. Outside of two games vs. Denver and two vs. Detroit, the Blazers don’t face any opponents above .500 the rest of the way.

Perhaps the ideal outcome for the Blazers would be to get McCollum back a few games before the end of the regular season. That could allow him to shake off the rust before the playoffs begin while potentially returning in time for what could be a crucial home-and-home set against the Nuggets on April 5 and April 7. We’ll have to wait to see how McCollum’s recovery progresses, however.

C.J. McCollum To Be Re-Evaluated In One Week With Popliteus Strain

Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum has avoided a major injury, with an MRI revealing that he suffered a popliteus strain in his left knee against the Spurs on Saturday, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

McCollum will be re-evaluated in one week, Wojnarowski reports.

“God looked out for me,” McCollum told Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). “Could’ve been a lot worse.”

McCollum, 27, exited Saturday’s game early after landing awkwardly on his knee. He appeared to be in significant pain, immediately being helped to the locker room and sending a scare throughout the Blazers organization. Initial X-rays were negative after the game.

McCollum has averaged 21.3 points, four rebounds and 2.9 assists in 68 contests this season, shooting 46% from the field and 38% from 3-point range. He’s in his sixth straight season with the team since being drafted 10th overall in 2013.

The Blazers are gearing up to make a playoff run behind the likes of McCollum, Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic and others, holding the fourth-best record in the West at 42-27 with less than a month remaining in the regular season.

MRI Set For C.J. McCollum

10:11pm: Blazers coach Terry Stotts said X-rays were negative and McCollum will fly back to Portland with the team for more tests, Quick tweets. McCollum also confirmed to Quick that it’s his knee that is hurting (Twitter link). He said the knee “does not feel normal” (Twitter link).

9:51pm: Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum will have an MRI on his left knee tomorrow after injuring it in tonight’s game at San Antonio, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

McCollum had to be helped off the court in the third quarter when he crashed to the ground on a drive to the basket and was stepped on by Spurs center Jakob Poeltl. He appeared to be putting some weight on the ankle as he exited, according to Jason Quick of The Athletic (Twitter link).

The Blazers announced that he was out for the remainder of the game and called it simply “a left leg injury,” tweets beat reporter Casey Holdahl.

It would be a huge setback for Portland to lose McCollum, who has helped to propel the Blazers into fourth place in the West. Part of a dynamic backcourt with Damian Lillard, McCollum is averaging 21.5 points per game and shooting better than 38% from 3-point range.