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Five Western FAs Who Have Boosted Their Value In 2018/19

April 5th, 2019 at 11:40am CST by Luke Adams

When we recently identified a handful of Eastern Conference free-agents-to-be who have significantly increased their stock this season, that list was headlined by players like D’Angelo Russell, Nikola Vucevic, and Bojan Bogdanovic, all of whom should be in line for big-money deals this summer. It’s a little trickier to identify similar players in the West.

That’s not to say there aren’t plenty of big-name free agents in the Western Conference. However, guys like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson entered the year expecting to be in line for lucrative long-term deals and nothing they’ve done has changed that outlook one way or the other.

Still, there are a number of lower-tier FAs-to-be in the West whose strong years have boosted their earning potential for the 2019 offseason. Today, we’ll shine a spotlight on a few of those guys, identifying five players in contract years who have improved their stock with their play this season.

Let’s dive in…

  1. Kelly Oubre, F, Suns (RFA): With Otto Porter ahead of him on the depth chart in Washington, Oubre never really had a chance to thrive with the Wizards in the same way he did after being traded to the Suns. In 40 games with his new team, Oubre played a career-high 29.5 minutes per contest, averaging career bests in PPG (16.9), RPG (4.9), APG (1.6), SPG (1.4), and FG% (.453) as well. Despite a crowded depth chart at small forward in Phoenix, Oubre looks like a core long-term piece, and should receive a long-term contract this offseason.
  2. Patrick Beverley, G, Clippers: After he missed nearly all of the 2017/18 season due to microfracture and meniscus surgery on his knee, it wasn’t clear whether Beverley would be the same player upon his return. His play for the Clippers this season has put those concerns to rest. In addition to filling the stat sheet with 7.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, and a .393 3PT%, the veteran point guard has continued to make life miserable for opposing perimeter players with his aggressive defense. The 30-year-old may not be in line for a massive payday, but he has proven he can still be an important contributor.
  3. Ivica Zubac, C, Clippers (RFA): Beverley’s teammate for the last two months, Zubac joined the Clippers in the most baffling deadline deal of 2019. The young center had been enjoying a breakout year for the Lakers, who gave him up for Mike Muscala. Zubac has been ever better for the Clippers than he was for the Lakers, averaging 8.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 0.9 BPG in 19.7 MPG since his arrival. His impact on defense has been particularly noticeable — the Clips’ 103.9 defensive rating with Zubac on the court would rank first in the NBA, and is 6.2 points better than their rating when he sits.
  4. Seth Curry, G, Trail Blazers: Like Beverley, Curry missed the 2017/18 season due to an injury, raising questions about what sort of player we’d see when he returned. The Trail Blazers, who signed Curry to a one-year, $2.8MM contract last July, have to be thrilled with their investment, as the 28-year-old’s .448 3PT% ranks third in the NBA, just ahead of his brother’s mark. Players who can knock down outside shots at that rate tend to do pretty well on the open market these days.
  5. Danuel House, F, Rockets (RFA): With apologies to Derrick Rose, whose impressive comeback season was marred to some extent by ongoing health concerns, House claims the last spot on my shortlist due to his unexpected impact on the Rockets. Houston’s season got off to a rough start, and the absence of reliable three-and-D players like Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute was a factor. House helped right the ship with his solid play on both ends of the court, as he shot 42.0% from downtown and forced the Rockets’ hand in a contract dispute — the team had to convert House’s two-way contract into a one-year NBA deal, putting him in line for restricted free agency in July. He’ll certainly draw more interest this time around than he did a year ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Northwest Notes: McCollum, Nurkic, Tolliver, Jensen

April 4th, 2019 at 8:57am CST by Luke Adams

Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum has been sidelined with a left popliteus strain since March 16, but has ramped up his on-court work as he nears a potential return, writes Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com. McCollum still wasn’t ready to commit to a specific return date, but sounded optimistic that he won’t be on the shelf for much longer.

“I think, having did some stuff today, I’m going to see how my body reacts, try to get through this week, see where I’m at and kind of go from there,” McCollum said on Wednesday. “When I first got hurt there were some dates that I kind of circled and I’m getting close to them, so I’ll see how I feel. But the biggest thing for me is to make sure I’m symptom-free, make sure I don’t have any lingering issues before I step back on the court.”

With four games left in the season, Portland has a two-game cushion on Utah for the No. 4 seed. The Blazers will finish their season against the Nuggets (twice), the Lakers, and the Kings as they look to secure home court advantage for the first round — it remains to be seen whether McCollum will be able to get back for any of those games.

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

  • The Trail Blazers recorded their 50th win on Wednesday night, which means that injured center Jusuf Nurkic has officially earned a $1.25MM bonus. As Bobby Marks of ESPN.com details, Portland is now on the hook for another $2.19MM in tax costs, though that number will decrease a little when Maurice Harkless fails to shoot 35% on threes. Nurkic’s cap hit for 2019/20 will rise from $12MM to $13.25MM, since that 50-win bonus is now considered “likely” for next season.
  • When the Timberwolves faced the Mavericks last night, Anthony Tolliver could have been playing against the Wolves rather than for them, notes Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News, who tweets that he thinks Minnesota should have accepted Dallas’ trade offer of J.J. Barea and a second-round pick. Wolfson has previously reported that the Thunder and Raptors offered second-round picks attached to Patrick Patterson and C.J. Miles, respectively, for Tolliver, but those deals would’ve taken the Wolves into the tax.
  • In a discussion at The Athletic, Britt Robson and Jon Krawczynski look ahead to the Timberwolves’ offseason, examining the return from the Jimmy Butler trade, Ryan Saunders‘ future, and much more.
  • Jazz assistant Alex Jensen interviewed for the head coaching position at BYU this week, league sources tell Tony Jones of The Athletic (Twitter link). Jeff Goodman of Stadium (Twitter link) first identified Jensen as a potential frontrunner for BYU.
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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

March 29th, 2019 at 8:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Northwest Division:

Isaiah Thomas, Nuggets, 30, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2018
The sad and swift decline in Thomas’ career hit a new low a couple of weeks ago when the veteran was informed by Nuggets coach Michael Malone he would not be in the rotation going forward. Thomas didn’t even make his season debut until mid-February due to his hip condition. He has only seen action in one game since March 8 — a scoreless seven-minute stint in Boston, where his career peaked two seasons ago when he averaged 28.9 PPG. Thomas will probably have to settle for another one year, “show me” contract this summer.

Tyus Jones, Timberwolves, 22, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6.54MM deal in 2015
Jones has received steady playing time since late February and is now the starter by default with Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose out for the rest of the season. He isn’t much of a scoring threat but he rarely turns the ball over. He’s averaging less than one turnover per game in 25.8 MPG this month. Teague has a $19MM option on his contract for next season and is expected to exercise it, so Jones’ starting gig probably won’t last. The Timberwolves can make Jones a restricted free agent by extending a qualifying offer of $3.57MM and that seems likely, given his age and steady hand at the point.

Markieff Morris, Thunder, 29, SF/PF (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $573K deal in 2019
The above salary figure doesn’t reflect that Morris was making $8.6MM before he was traded by the Wizards to the Pelicans, who waived him. He seemed to be walking into a good situation with a playoff-bound team but hasn’t made much of an impact. He’s averaging 6.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 15.9 MPG in 17 appearances with Oklahoma City. He played just seven scoreless minutes against Indiana on Wednesday. Morris brings enough to the table to be a rotation piece but it’s increasing unlikely he’ll get a starter-level offer on the open market.

Enes Kanter, Trail Blazers, 26, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $653K deal in 2019
Jusuf Nurkic‘s gruesome leg injury changes the outlook for Kanter in the short- and long-term. He’ll suddenly be playing heavy minutes for Portland, which signed him as a backup after the Knicks reached a buyout agreement with him on his $18.6MM salary this season. A productive postseason by Kanter should enhance his prospects as an unrestricted free agent. He’s not going to make anyone’s All-Defense team but he’s a double-double machine when he plays half the game. While it seems Kanter has been around for awhile, he’s still only 26 and in the prime of his career.

Derrick Favors, Jazz, 27, PF (Up)– Signed to a two-year, $37.6MM deal in 2018
Favors’ $16.9MM contract for next season isn’t guaranteed unless he’s on the roster through July 6. That seemed unlikely from the time he signed the deal but it’s not a given the Jazz will let him go. That salary isn’t outrageous for a starter and the Jazz have plenty of cap room to absorb that salary. Plus, they’d need to have a solid plan to replace Favors, who has posted a 21.9 PER this season. Favors nearly got dealt to Memphis for Mike Conley and Utah could use his expiring contract in a blockbuster trade next season if it retains him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Jusuf Nurkic In Position To Earn $1.25MM Bonus

March 29th, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Jusuf Nurkic‘s season came to an early end this week when he suffered a horrific leg injury that figures to sideline him for much of the 2019/20 campaign as well. While it was a devastating blow for Nurkic and the Trail Blazers, the veteran center might get a bit of good news before the regular season.

As Bobby Marks of ESPN.com details in an Insider-only story, Nurkic will earn a $1.25MM bonus if Portland records at least 50 wins this season. The Trail Blazers’ record currently sits at 47-27, giving the team eight more games to win three more games, which seems like a reasonable bet. If Nurkic does earn that bonus, the Blazers’ projected tax bill will increase by more than $2MM and the big man’s cap hits in future seasons would rise, Marks notes.

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Super-Max Extension In Play For Lillard This Offseason

March 27th, 2019 at 10:35am CST by Luke Adams

As a lock for one of the six All-NBA guard spots this spring, Damian Lillard will become eligible for a super-max extension with the Trail Blazers this summer. And according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, unlike Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Anthony Davis, Lillard has “sent signals” that he’ll be interested in signing a super-max deal to stick with his current team.

As Windhorst observes, the ownership situation in Portland is a little unstable following the death of longtime owner Paul Allen, and Lillard met with Allen last season before his passing to discuss the direction of the franchise, which raised some eyebrows. However, Portland’s star point guard doesn’t have any concerns about ownership and he’s “very comfortable with his commitment” to the franchise, Windhorst writes.

Lillard will still have two years and $61MM+ left on his current contract after this season, so gaining super-max eligibility would allow him to tack on four new years to that deal. Assuming the Blazers put the offer on the table, the extension would start at 35% of the cap in 2021/22. The exact figures aren’t yet known, since they’ll depend on where the cap ends up that year, but Windhorst estimates a four-year super-max would be worth approximately $194MM.

Because Lillard will have earned All-NBA honors in two consecutive years, he’d also remain eligible for a super-max extension in 2020 if he were to pass on one this year. While doing so would put him in line for an even larger payday, Windhorst suggests that there’s no indication the 28-year-old wants to put it off.

With Lillard apparently on board, an offseason extension seems likely, but Portland will still have to actually put the offer on the table. The Blazers remain fully committed to their franchise player, so I’d be surprised if they don’t make that super-max offer, but it’s worth noting that the four-year extension would start in Lillard’s age-31 season, which is still two years away.

Locking up a player a couple years in advance for his early-30s seasons is a risky play — just ask the Wizards, whose super-max for John Wall was completed in 2017 and won’t actually go into effect until this July. Still, the Blazers are a good bet to take that risk.

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Blazers Lose Jusuf Nurkic With “Devastating” Injury

March 26th, 2019 at 2:55pm CST by Arthur Hill

2:55pm: Nurkic underwent surgery to repair his compound fractures today, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. While Nurkic has been ruled out indefinitely, the good news is that there was no nerve or muscle damage in his leg, league sources tell Charania.

8:57am: Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic suffered compound fractures to his left tibia and fibula last night, putting him out of action for the rest of the season and probably well into next season, writes Joe Freeman of The Oregonian.

The injury occurred in the second overtime of a win over the Nets as Nurkic landed on several players after jumping for a rebound. The crowd went silent before chanting Nurkic’s name in a show of support. Teammates turned away because of the gruesome nature of the injury.

“It made me sick to my stomach,” Damian Lillard said.

After a long examination by trainers and team doctors, Nurkic received a huge ovation as he was carried off on a stretcher. Coach Terry Stotts called the injury “devastating” as it casts a shadow over the rest of the season for a Portland team that clinched a playoff spot with the victory.

“It’s terrible,” Zach Collins said. “Obviously you never want to see that happen, especially with your own teammate that you go to war with every night. Nurk, he’s been having a hell of a season. He had an amazing game tonight. And for it to end like that for him, it’s just tough. All we can do is be there for him and hope he’s in as little pain as possible and knows that we’ve got his back.”

At age 24, Nurkic was putting together his best season, averaging career highs with 15.6 PPG and 10.4 RPG. He is signed for nearly $25MM over the next two seasons and has a non-guaranteed $12MM salary for 2021/22. His absence should create a greater role for Enes Kanter, who signed with Portland last month after reaching a buyout with the Knicks.

Players from around the NBA sent messages of support on social media last night, while the Trail Blazers struggled to deal with the impact of losing a beloved teammate and a vital part of their hopes for the postseason.

“I’m going to go home and pray for him because this is way bigger than basketball,” Kanter said. “We clinched a playoff spot and we’re not even celebrating. He was a big part of our family — not our team, our family — and I just don’t know what to say. It’s definitely tough.”

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McCollum To Miss At Least Four More Games

March 25th, 2019 at 10:04pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Trail Blazers could be without their second-leading scorer, shooting guard C.J. McCollum, for the rest of the regular season, according to an NBA.com report.

McCollum will not accompany the team on its upcoming four-game road trip, coach Terry Stotts told the media on Monday. He hasn’t played since suffering a left knee strain on March 16.

McCollum is averaging 21.3 points while shooting 46.3% from the field, including 38.0% from distance.

The Blazers won’t have another home game until April 3 against Memphis. There will only be a week left in the regular season at that point.

McCollum’s health is a major concern for a team that is trying to avert a second straight postseason flop. The Blazers were swept by New Orleans last season. McCollum has two years left on his four-year, $106.6MM contract and has often been the subject of trade rumors, which will intensify if Portland doesn’t advance in the playoffs this spring.

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Northwest Notes: McCollum, Jokic, Millsap, Wolves

March 20th, 2019 at 10:11am CST by Luke Adams

While teammate Damian Lillard says he’s mentally preparing for C.J. McCollum to miss most or all of the rest of the regular season with a knee injury, McCollum isn’t ready to specify a target date or even to provide a general recovery timeline. As Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com relays, McCollum says he’s simply taking the injury “day by day.”

“What, did they say I’ll be re-evaluated in one week?” McCollum said when asked about a potential return date. “So, just taking it day by day, I don’t have a timeline that I’m going to give you guys, but I think just based on the research, there’s not a lot of injuries like this that have happened. So timeline is different just depending on the age, how well your body heals, what you’ve done before that and kind of where you’re at. But hopefully I can be back sooner than later.”

As I noted on Tuesday, the Trail Blazers are in a competitive race for a top-four seed, but have an easier schedule than several of their Western Conference rivals, meaning they won’t rush McCollum back onto the court. The important thing for Portland is that the 27-year-old is as close to 100% healthy as possible when the postseason gets underway. He’s due to be re-evaluated this weekend.

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

  • When the Nuggets clinched a playoff spot earlier this week, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap locked in bonuses worth $431K and $150K respectively, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN.com, who adds (via Twitter) that both players will receive additional bonuses if Denver wins a postseason series. As Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports observes (via Twitter), Jokic and Millsap will have slightly higher cap hits next season now that those incentives shift from “unlikely” to “likely.”
  • Cameron Reynolds‘ new multiyear deal with Minnesota is actually a three-year contract that runs through 2020/21, tweets Keith Smith. That means the Timberwolves used a portion of their mid-level exception to sign Reynolds. The deal still isn’t expected to include much – if any – guaranteed money beyond this season.
  • The Timberwolves‘ playoff hopes have been extinguished, but there’s still plenty to watch in Minnesota in the coming weeks, writes Britt Robson of The Athletic. Most pressingly, it remains to be seen who will be making the personnel decisions for the club this offseason or coaching the team next fall, Robson notes.
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How All-NBA Choices Could Impact Contract Situations

March 20th, 2019 at 9:05am CST by Luke Adams

Last month, we outlined how the Anthony Davis saga in New Orleans could significantly impact what Karl-Anthony Towns next contract looks like.

Towns’ new extension, signed last fall, will start at 30% of the cap if he earns All-NBA honors in 2019, as opposed to 25% of the cap if he misses out on an All-NBA slot. With Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid expected to claim two All-NBA center spots, Towns is in position to grab the third, in part due to Davis’ trade request — not only will AD’s role in the Pelicans’ dysfunction be considered, but he’s playing limited minutes down the stretch while Towns puts up some of the best numbers of his career.

Assuming Towns does earn an All-NBA nod, it’ll be a $30MM+ decision by award voters, bumping the projected value of his five-year deal from about $158MM to nearly $190MM. However, KAT isn’t the only player who could have his contract situation significantly impacted by this year’s All-NBA selections.

As Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com and Andrew Sharp of SI.com have detailed this week, there’s a lot at stake for a handful of players who are candidates for this year’s All-NBA teams. Let’s break it down, taking a closer look at some players who could become eligible for a super-max contract this year…

The All-NBA locks:

While there’s some debate over which six guards will get All-NBA nods, Lillard looks like a slam dunk for a spot on the first or second team — Lillard, Stephen Curry and James Harden appear to be the strongest candidates for the two guard spots on that first team.

Assuming he does, in fact, earn All-NBA honors, Lillard will become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension. His current contract runs through 2020/21, with no options, so he’d be eligible to tack on four extra years to that deal, starting in 2021/22.

For now, i’s impossible to say exactly what the NBA’s salary cap will be in 2021/22, but based on projections for ’19/20 ($109MM) and ’20/21 ($118MM), we can safely assume a max deal for Lillard starting in ’21/22 will be worth a lot more than it would be now. Conservatively, estimating a $120MM cap, Lillard’s super-max extension would start at $42MM and would be worth $188MM+ over four years.

With Lillard in position to gain eligibility for a super-max extension, the big question in Portland this summer could be whether the Trail Blazers will actually put that offer on the table. There have been no indications that either Lillard or the Blazers wants to end their union, but the club might be wary of offering such a massive deal to a player who will be 31 years old when the four-year deal begins — that decision hasn’t worked out well for the Wizards with John Wall.

As for Antetokounmpo, he’s on track to become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension too, and that decision figures to be a much easier one for the Bucks. However, Milwaukee won’t be able to actually put that super-max offer on the table until the 2020 offseason, once Giannis has seven years of NBA experience under his belt.

The All-NBA guard contenders:

Read more

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Lillard Preparing As If McCollum Will Miss Rest Of Regular Season

March 19th, 2019 at 10:01am CST by Luke Adams

After suffering a left knee injury over the weekend, C.J. McCollum is expected to be re-evaluated this Saturday. However, Damian Lillard told reporters last night that he’s not necessarily counting on his backcourt mate to be back anytime soon.

As Jason Quick of The Athletic relays (via Twitter), Lillard wants McCollum to get back to 100% before he returns and is mentally preparing for him to miss the rest of the regular season.

“I don’t want him to have to rush it. And when he does come back, I want him to be himself and be healthy,” Lillard said, per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian (Twitter link). “So, in my mind, we’re going to finish the regular season without him.”

The Trail Blazers remain in a tight race for home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason. Currently, the team holds the No. 4 seed, with a 1.5-game cushion over the Spurs and Thunder and a two-game lead over Utah.

While Portland would certainly like to have McCollum back in its lineup as soon as possible to secure a top-four spot in the conference, it makes more sense to hold him out until he’s fully healthy — especially since the team’s schedule isn’t particularly brutal down the stretch. Outside of two games vs. Denver and two vs. Detroit, the Blazers don’t face any opponents above .500 the rest of the way.

Perhaps the ideal outcome for the Blazers would be to get McCollum back a few games before the end of the regular season. That could allow him to shake off the rust before the playoffs begin while potentially returning in time for what could be a crucial home-and-home set against the Nuggets on April 5 and April 7. We’ll have to wait to see how McCollum’s recovery progresses, however.

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