Trail Blazers Rumors

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers are burdened by some unpalatable long-term contracts, but the $112MM already on the books for 2018/19 is tolerable given that they’re in the running for home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs.

With little foreseeable cap space projected until the summer of 2020 at the earliest, the Blazers will have to make some decisions on whether to keep the current core together or make more ambitious, financially-driven moves to position themselves for the future.

The 2017/18 campaign saw general manager Neil Olshey unload 22-year-old Noah Vonleh at the trade deadline in order to duck under the luxury tax line. Could a deep postseason run in the spring be enough to convince franchise owner Paul Allen to blow by that threshold next year?

Jusuf Nurkic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $8MM contract in 2014.
While Nurkic’s value tends to fluctuate from month to month, there’s no denying that he’s capable of big things if given an opportunity. Were it not for the Blazers’ financial binds, bringing back the Bosnian Beast on a significant deal would be a no-brainer. Alas, making or matching a significant offer for the big man would vault Portland well into the luxury tax, something that we’re not quite sure the club is willing to do yet. It would be a shame for the Blazers to watch Nurkic walk for nothing, so expect them to work the phones aggressively to see if they can find a way to make it work. If they can’t, he’ll get paid elsewhere, even with a glut of other available centers on the market.

Pat Connaughton, SG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2015.
After two years of sparse playing time, Connaughton has carved out a role for himself in Portland’s rotation. The dual-threat athlete won’t break the bank as a restricted free agent, but could be a welcomed addition should the Blazers look to bring the familiar face back on the cheap.

Ed Davis, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20MM deal in 2015.
While Davis has consistently established himself as an efficient player in reserve minutes, he’s never taken the leap to make a case for himself as a starter. The big man should be able to at least replicate his last contract considering his per-36 rates of 10.2 points and 14.0 boards, but don’t bank on that coming in Portland — he’s a replaceable piece of the current puzzle.

Shabazz Napier, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM contract in 2014.
It took Napier four years and three teams to find a home in the NBA, but he has finally come into his own in Oregon. The prolific 26-year-old combo guard has slotted in admirably behind Portland’s celebrated starting duo – a duo consisting of two other prolific combo guards – and has stepped up occasionally when called upon. In nine games as a starter, the former UConn standout has posted 15.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists per contest, and may have shown just enough in those stints to draw an offer sheet out of a desperate team in restricted free agency. It’s hard to imagine Olshey digging deep to match an aggressive offer from a team with cap space to spare but that wouldn’t be for a lack of interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blazers’ Maurice Harkless Undergoes Knee Procedure

MARCH 28, 3:51pm: After undergoing a procedure on his left knee today, Harkless will be re-evaluated in two weeks, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link). The regular season will end two weeks from today, so it sounds like the Blazers likely won’t get Harkless back until the playoffs. The forward’s recovery could take about two to three weeks, league sources tell Wojnarowski.

MARCH 27, 9:41pm: Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless will undergo an arthroscopy Wednesday to remove a loose body in his left knee, the team announced in a press release. His timetable to return to action will be determined following the procedure.

Harkless is averaging 6.5 PPG and 2.7 RPG in 21.4 MPG. He’s coming off one of his best performances of the season, as he posted 16 points, six rebounds, four assists and four blocks against the Thunder on Sunday. He has scored 16 or more points in four of the last six games.

The Blazers are currently third in the Western Conference and this could be a significant blow if Harkless is not ready to return by the postseason. This leaves the club thin at the small forward spot, since Evan Turner and Harkless have played the bulk of the minutes there.

Evan Turner Fined For Inappropriate Gesture

Eight RFAs Well Positioned For Long-Term Contracts

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a monster payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team often have to overpay to do it — just ask Tim Hardaway Jr., who almost certainly did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted last summer. Otto Porter, Tony Snell, Joe Ingles, Cristiano Felicio, and Mason Plumlee were among the other 2017 RFAs who secured lucrative long-term deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down big four-year offers last offseason and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. Alex Len and Nikola Mirotic were among the other RFAs who remained on the market for months before eventually signing modest deals.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a lucrative long-term deal is generally preferred, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2018 free agent period, league-wide cap space isn’t expected to be as abundant as it has been over the past couple years, but there are still a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big contracts. Here are eight of them:

  1. Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela may not have the dynamic sort of skill set that some of the NBA’s best big men possess, but he does exactly what the Rockets need him to — finish at the basket (.651 FG%), grab rebounds (10.9 RPG), and protect the rim (1.8 BPG). Barring a major surprise, I’d expect Houston to go well into tax territory to ensure that he and Chris Paul both get lucrative new deals this summer.
  2. Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): After opening the season with a red-hot shooting stretch (.595 3PT% in his first 10 games), Gordon has posted more pedestrian shooting numbers since then (.299 3PT% in his last 39 games). The former fourth overall pick becomes an extremely dangerous offensive weapon when his three-pointer is working, but even without it, he makes for an intriguing free agent option. Gordon is still just 22 years old, and coming off a career year, he’s a good bet to land a big offer sheet from a team with cap room if the Magic drag their feet in negotiations.
  3. Julius Randle, F/C (Lakers): With Larry Nance Jr. sent to Cleveland and Kyle Kuzma unable to sustain his hot start all season long, Randle has been the Lakers‘ most impressive big man for the last three months. Since entering the starting lineup on December 29, the former Kentucky standout has averaged 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG, making a case for a spot on the Lakers’ long-term plans even if the team is able to land a top outside free agent or two this summer. The Mavericks have been cited most frequently as a potential suitor for Randle if he seeks out an offer sheet.
  4. Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): Although injuries have prevented LaVine from taking another step forward this season, that’s unlikely to significantly impact his free agent value. The Bulls traded for LaVine last offseason knowing that a pricey new deal was on the horizon, and there has been no indication that the team has wavered on the idea of locking him up to a long-term pact.
  5. Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): Had Parker stayed healthy during his first four NBA seasons, he may already have a maximum salary extension secured. Instead, two ACL injuries have created uncertainty about what his next contract will look like. The former No. 2 overall pick reportedly passed on an offer last fall that would have paid him $18MM annually, and while he may not do better than that on the open market, his market shouldn’t crater. Parker already has a 20+ PPG season under his belt, and has put up career-best shooting numbers since returning from his latest ACL tear — his scoring potential will be tantalizing enough for a team with cap flexibility to take a shot on him if the Bucks don’t re-sign him right away.
  6. Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): Nurkic has been somewhat inconsistent this season, particularly on offense, but the Trail Blazers‘ defense continues to perform better and commit fewer fouls when he’s on the court, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote this week. A 23-year-old center capable of anchoring a defense for a top-six team in the NBA is a rarity — that makes him a good bet to do well for himself in free agency.
  7. Marcus Smart, G (Celtics): Like Nurkic, Smart isn’t necessarily a reliable go-to option on offense, but his defensive ability makes him a valuable rotation piece. According to Basketball-Reference’s on/off-court stats, the Celtics allow about five fewer points per 100 possessions and force more turnovers when Smart is on the floor. While his shooting numbers (.367/.301/.729) leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old should at least be in line for an Andre Roberson-type contract (three years, $30MM).
  8. Fred VanVleet, G (Raptors): The only player on this list who wasn’t a first-round pick, VanVleet actually wasn’t drafted at all, joining the Raptors as a rookie free agent in 2016. He has developed into a solid backup point guard this season, averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.5 APG with a .450/.432/.867 shooting line since the start of 2018. His success creates an interesting predicament for the Raptors, who project to be a taxpayer in 2018/19, and could have to contend with a rival suitor back-loading an offer sheet for VanVleet via the Arenas provision. Toronto may ultimately need to trade another expensive contract if they want to retain VanVleet without committing to a huge tax bill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blazers Notes: Lillard, McCollum, Nurkic

Northwest Notes: Gobert, Stockton, Nurkic, Brewer

Rudy Gobert missed 26 games due to two knee injuries earlier this season, but has been a focal point in the Jazz‘s recent nine-game winning streak. Gobert has always been praised for his defense and the Utah center said he deserves to be rewarded for it, Eric Woodyard of Desert News writes.

“To me, there’s no question right now,” Gobert said about whether or not he should be Defensive Player of the Year. “Like I said, my goal is to make my teammates better defensively and to make my team better, but yeah, there’s no question.”

Gobert has been a double-double machine for the Jazz, averaging 14.0 PPG and 10.7 RPG. While the team struggled in his absence, Gobert said the team needed to go through it to enjoy its current success.

“The team had to go through this kind of slump, and when I came back the second time, I felt I was better,” Gobert said. “I felt like it made everyone better. Everyone got better by going through this moment.”

Check out more notes from the Northwest Division:
  • David Stockton, who signed a 10-day contract with the Jazz this week, is excited for the opportunity to suit for the team where his father became an NBA legend, Woodyard writes in a separate article. However, he is not putting any pressure on himself. “I try not to think about it,” he said. “The statue has been there, and it’s kind of been the same old story my whole life as far as basketball and playing and having this name, so I try not to think about it, and I don’t think there’s too much pressure.”
  • Jusuf Nurkic has been a solid player for the Trail Blazers since he was traded from the Nuggets. As he prepares to showcase his talent on the postseason stage, restricted free agency looms over him, but he tells Alex Kennedy of HoopsHype he is not worried about it. “I don’t even think about it. I’m really only focused on Portland and the playoffs right now,” he said. “In this league, business is business, but I just try to keep it simple: I’m going to hoop and let everybody else do their job.”
  • Corey Brewer joined the Thunder for the stretch run and he has played a vital role in a short time. His success can be attributed to his family, Brett Dawson of the Oklahoman writes.

Blazers Sign Papagiannis Through 2018/19 Season

MARCH 18, 12:54pm: The Blazers have reached an agreement with Papagiannis that will run through 2018/19, the team announced on its website.

MARCH 17, 7:00pm: The Trail Blazers will sign center Georgios Papagiannis for the remainder of the regular season, tweets Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

The 20-year-old signed a 10-day contract with Portland last week that was set to expire. The Blazers could have made another 10-day offer to the seven-footer, but are choosing to keep him on the roster throughout the season.

Papagiannis was the 13th player taken in the 2016 draft, but he had a lackluster rookie season with the Kings, appearing in just 22 games and averaging 5.6 points and 3.9 rebounds per night. He played 16 more games for Sacramento this season before being waived at the trade deadline to open a roster space.

Papagiannis hasn’t seen any playing time since joining the Trail Blazers.

Update On Blazers' Tax Situation

  • After signing Wade Baldwin to a rest-of-season contract earlier this week, the Trail Blazers remain $232K below the luxury tax line, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link). That means Portland can fill its 15th roster spot with another veteran without becoming a taxpaying team, which is good news if the Blazers want to add depth for the postseason.

Trail Blazers Sign Wade Baldwin To NBA Contract

2:50pm: The Trail Blazers have officially signed Baldwin, the team confirmed in a press release.

1:52pm: The Trail Blazers have filled the open spot on their 15-man roster, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, who reports (via Twitter) that the club has signed Wade Baldwin to a rest-of-season, minimum-salary contract.

Baldwin, who will turn 22 later this month, signed a two-way contract with the Blazers back in October, shortly after he was waived by the Grizzlies. A thumb injury kept him on the shelf for several weeks near the start of the season, but he has since returned to the court and played well in the G League.

Because Portland doesn’t have a G League affiliate of its own, Baldwin has been playing for the Texas Legends, the Mavericks’ affiliate. In 17 games for the Legends, the former first-round pick has averaged 18.2 PPG, 5.1 APG, 4.5 RPG, and 2.2 SPG. He made his Blazers debut last Tuesday, playing three minutes in garbage time against the Knicks.

I wouldn’t expect Baldwin to become a key part of the Blazers’ rotation going forward, but he could see a little more action down the stretch, and his new contract will make him playoff-eligible.

Portland now has 16 players under contract in total — Baldwin will be the 14th on a standard, full-season NBA deal. The Blazers are also carrying Georgios Papagiannis on a 10-day contract and C.J. Wilcox on a two-way pact.

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