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Details On Traded Picks, Upcoming Draft Tiebreakers

April 12th, 2018 at 12:20am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.

More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.

However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).

[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]

For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.

For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.

Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:

Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.

Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:

Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
- Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
- Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30

Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:

Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60

Western Conference Playoff Seeding

April 11th, 2018 at 11:54pm CST by clarkcrum

11:54pm: The Trail Blazers have defeated the Jazz in their regular season finale and clinched the No. 3 seed with the win. Here are the first-round matchups in the Western Conference:

Rockets (No. 1) vs. Timberwolves (No. 8)
Warriors (No. 2) vs. Spurs (No. 7)
Trail Blazers (No. 3) vs. Pelicans (No. 6)
Thunder (No. 4) vs. Jazz (No. 5)

9:47pm: The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets and clinched the final spot in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. We now know the following.

The Nuggets will miss the playoffs
The Timberwolves are the No. 8 seed.
The Spurs are the No. 7 seed.
If the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz:
- Pelicans are No. 6
- Jazz are No. 5
- Thunder are No. 4
- Blazers are No. 3
If the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers:
- Thunder are No. 6
- Pelicans are No. 5
- Blazers are No. 4
- Jazz are No. 3

8:54pm: The Thunder lead the Grizzlies by 12 with less than nine minutes remaining, while the Pelicans lead the Spurs by 18 with less than 10 minutes remaining. Barring a surprise comeback by Memphis or San Antonio, here is how the playoff picture looks after wins by Oklahoma City and New Orleans.

Jazz: 3 or 5

Trail Blazers: 3 or 4

Thunder: 4 or 6

Pelicans: 5 or 6

Spurs: 7 or 8

Timberwolves: 8 or 9

Nuggets: 7 or 9

4:37pm: As we indicated earlier today, the Nuggets and Timberwolves will face-off tonight with the final spot of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on the line.

And while that game will be the only winner-gets-in, loser-gets-eliminated contest tonight, there are numerous other games with playoff seeding implications on the line. In the Western Conference, only the Rockets and the Warriors know their playoff seeding. Seeds three through eight are all still up for grabs, as follows:

Jazz: 3, 4, or 5

Trail Blazers: 3, 4, or 5

Pelicans: 5, 6, 7, or 8

Spurs: 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8

Thunder: 4, 6, or 8

Timberwolves: 6, 7, 8, or 9

Nuggets: 6, 7, or 9

We will be updating the Western Conference playoff seeding scenarios – in real time – as games finish this evening, so stay tuned to Hoops Rumors for all relevant up-to-the-minute developments. For now, here are some initial notes that are not conditional upon other game results:

The Jazz and Trail Blazers winner gets the No. 3 seed.
The Thunder will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to the Grizzlies.
As noted above, the loser of the Nuggets and Wolves will finish ninth in the Western Conference standings.

Contract Notes: Embiid, Davis, Lillard, Lowry

April 11th, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

When All-NBA voters decide whether or not to classify Anthony Davis as a forward or center on their ballots this year, they may indirectly impact the value of Joel Embiid‘s new contract by approximately $30MM.

As Bobby Marks of ESPN details, the extension Embiid signed with the Sixers last offseason will be worth 25% of the cap starting in 2018/19. However, the contract includes a clause that states his starting salary would increase to 30% if he’s named to the All-NBA First Team. That salary bump would increase his overall earnings by about $30MM over the life of the five-year deal, but it can probably only happen if Davis receives most of his All-NBA votes at forward. Otherwise, he seems like a good bet to beat out Embiid for the center spot on the First Team.

No player has more at stake as a result of All-NBA voting or various other benchmarks than Embiid. But that contract is just one of many that could be affected by a variety of award results, postseason outcomes, or other criteria.

Marks’ piece is worth checking out in full for all the details, but here’s a quick look at a few noteworthy contract situations:

Pelicans star Anthony Davis will become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension in 2019 if he earns an All-NBA spot this year. However, Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard is among the players who would need another All-NBA nod in 2019 to qualify for a supermax deal, even if he’s on this year’s All-NBA squad. Those Designated Veteran Extensions are known as supermax contracts because they start at 35% of the salary cap instead of 30%.
Kyle Lowry (Raptors) and Victor Oladipo (Pacers) would get sizable bonuses if their teams make deep playoff runs. Lowry would receive $500K for reaching the Eastern Finals, another $500K for winning the East, and another $500K for a title. Oladipo would earn $250K if Indiana reaches the NBA Finals.
All-Defense honors would pay off for Jazz center Rudy Gobert and Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday. Gobert will get a $500K bonus if he’s named to the All-Defense First Team, while Holiday would get $100K for a spot on the First Team or Second Team.
Among the players who have already earned bonuses: Hawks center Dewayne Dedmon ($900K for incentives related to points, rebounds, and games played), Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless ($500K for his three-point percentage), Bucks center John Henson ($500K for playing 75+ games), and Jazz guard Ricky Rubio ($175K for his field-goal and free-throw percentages).

Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Nik Stauskas (Nets)
Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
Zach LaVine (Bulls)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Elfrid Payton (Suns)
Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
Clint Capela (Rockets)
Kyle Anderson (Spurs)

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Damian Lillard Hopes To Return Saturday

April 6th, 2018 at 11:56am CST by Luke Adams

Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard missed Thursday’s game against Houston due to a sprained ankle, but he’s “feeling better,” head coach Terry Stotts said last night (Twitter link via ESPN’s Tim MacMahon).

After Stotts indicated that Lillard should be back sometime before the end of the season, the point guard himself told Jason Quick of NBC Sports Northwest (Twitter link) that he hopes to return on Saturday in San Antonio. The Trail Blazers have locked up a playoff spot, so there’s no pressure for Lillard to rush back, but he likely wants to get some reps before the postseason gets underway and help Portland secure the No. 3 seed.

Damian Lillard Injures Left Ankle

April 4th, 2018 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

Damian Lillard rolled his left ankle during the fourth quarter of the Trail Blazers’ loss to the Mavericks on Tuesday night, and while he was able to finish the game, Portland’s star point guard said the ankle became more painful and more swollen later in the night, per Jason Quick of NBC Sports Northwest. According to Quick, Lillard had to be transported from the locker room to the team bus on a cart after the game.

Although the injury may not compromise Lillard’s playoff availability, it’s unclear whether he’ll be ready to go for Thursday’s game in Houston, or if the Blazers will play it safe and hold him out of some or all of the club’s final four regular season contests.

“I think I have a pretty high pain tolerance, but I’m going to be smart about it,” Lillard said, according to Quick. “It’s the end of the season, we are going into the playoffs, so I have to be smart that one thing doesn’t turn into another.”

As Lillard notes, the 48-30 Blazers have clinched a playoff spot. The team also has a fairly strong hold on the No. 3 seed in the West, though that position could be jeopardized by a few losses to finish the season — the Jazz and Spurs are both still within reach of the No. 3 spot, with matching 45-33 records. As such, the Blazers can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal quite yet.

We’ll pass along updates on Lillard’s recovery timetable as they become available.

Nurse, Vanterpool Top List Of Rising Head Coach Candidates

April 3rd, 2018 at 3:16pm CST by Luke Adams

No NBA head coaches were replaced during the 2017 offseason, but that’s very unlikely to be the case for 2018. Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post and Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports suggest that as many as 10 or 11 teams could be on the lookout for a new head coach this offseason.

That list of teams includes three teams with interim head coaches – the Suns, Grizzlies, and Bucks – as well as lottery teams like the Knicks, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Hawks. Playoff contenders like the Nuggets and Clippers could also consider a change, particularly if they miss out on the postseason.

Not all of those teams will replace their current head coaches, but there should be a good deal of turnover in the NBA’s coaching ranks this spring. That could open up the door for assistant coaches or G League head coaches who haven’t yet had the opportunity to run their own NBA squads to interview for those jobs in the coming weeks.

With that in mind, Mannix spoke to over three dozen “high-ranking team executives,” getting each of those execs to name two assistants they view as viable head coaching candidates. Mannix’s only criteria? The executives polled couldn’t name assistants from their own staffs, and the assistants named couldn’t have any NBA or major-college head coaching experience already.

Here are the top vote-getters in Mannix’s poll, all of whom were mentioned by at least three different executives:

Nick Nurse (Raptors assistant)
David Vanterpool (Trail Blazers assistant)
Igor Kokoskov (Jazz assistant)
Stephen Silas (Hornets associate head coach)
Adrian Griffin (Thunder assistant)
Nate Tibbetts (Trail Blazers assistant)
Chris Finch (Pelicans assistant)
Jerry Stackhouse (Raptors 905 head coach)
Ryan Saunders (Timberwolves assistant)
Jay Larranaga (Celtics assistant)

Of course, not every team seeking a new head coach in the offseason will be eyeing candidates in this pool. Some clubs will want a candidate with previous head coaching experience, and there should be no shortage of those — Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, David Blatt, David Fizdale, and Monty Williams are among the veteran coaches who have been linked to various teams already. Other clubs may target a coach from the NCAA pool, such as Villanova’s Jay Wright.

Still, the NBA assistants listed above are viewed around the league as future head coaching candidates, and are the names to keep an eye on if your favorite team is considering a change on its bench.

Ed Davis Out 7 To 14 Days With Sprained Ankle

March 31st, 2018 at 5:17pm CST by Arthur Hill

An MRI conducted today showed that Trail Blazers forward Ed Davis has a sprained right ankle, according to Casey Holdahl of Blazers.com (Twitter link). Davis will be re-evaluated in seven to 14 days and may miss the start of the playoffs.

RFA Rumors: Parker, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle

March 30th, 2018 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.

Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…

Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Portland Trail Blazers

March 29th, 2018 at 10:17pm CST by Austin Kent

The Trail Blazers are burdened by some unpalatable long-term contracts, but the $112MM already on the books for 2018/19 is tolerable given that they’re in the running for home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs.

With little foreseeable cap space projected until the summer of 2020 at the earliest, the Blazers will have to make some decisions on whether to keep the current core together or make more ambitious, financially-driven moves to position themselves for the future.

The 2017/18 campaign saw general manager Neil Olshey unload 22-year-old Noah Vonleh at the trade deadline in order to duck under the luxury tax line. Could a deep postseason run in the spring be enough to convince franchise owner Paul Allen to blow by that threshold next year?

Jusuf Nurkic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $8MM contract in 2014.
While Nurkic’s value tends to fluctuate from month to month, there’s no denying that he’s capable of big things if given an opportunity. Were it not for the Blazers’ financial binds, bringing back the Bosnian Beast on a significant deal would be a no-brainer. Alas, making or matching a significant offer for the big man would vault Portland well into the luxury tax, something that we’re not quite sure the club is willing to do yet. It would be a shame for the Blazers to watch Nurkic walk for nothing, so expect them to work the phones aggressively to see if they can find a way to make it work. If they can’t, he’ll get paid elsewhere, even with a glut of other available centers on the market.

Pat Connaughton, SG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2015.
After two years of sparse playing time, Connaughton has carved out a role for himself in Portland’s rotation. The dual-threat athlete won’t break the bank as a restricted free agent, but could be a welcomed addition should the Blazers look to bring the familiar face back on the cheap.

Ed Davis, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20MM deal in 2015.
While Davis has consistently established himself as an efficient player in reserve minutes, he’s never taken the leap to make a case for himself as a starter. The big man should be able to at least replicate his last contract considering his per-36 rates of 10.2 points and 14.0 boards, but don’t bank on that coming in Portland — he’s a replaceable piece of the current puzzle.

Shabazz Napier, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM contract in 2014.
It took Napier four years and three teams to find a home in the NBA, but he has finally come into his own in Oregon. The prolific 26-year-old combo guard has slotted in admirably behind Portland’s celebrated starting duo – a duo consisting of two other prolific combo guards – and has stepped up occasionally when called upon. In nine games as a starter, the former UConn standout has posted 15.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists per contest, and may have shown just enough in those stints to draw an offer sheet out of a desperate team in restricted free agency. It’s hard to imagine Olshey digging deep to match an aggressive offer from a team with cap space to spare but that wouldn’t be for a lack of interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.