Trail Blazers Rumors

After an abdominal injury limited Damian Lillard to just 29 games in 2021/22 and the Trail Blazers posted their worst record in 16 years (27-55), the hope in Portland was that better injury luck and a quick retooling of the roster – centered around the acquisition of Jerami Grant – would put the team back in the postseason a year later.

The Blazers were hit hard again by injuries in ’22/23, but even if they’d stayed healthy, their roster wasn’t strong enough to make them a legitimate contender. Portland finished at 33-49, once again tanking hard in the second half — their minus-12.2 net rating after the trade deadline was easily the NBA’s worst, while their 6-21 record during that time ranked dead last in the West.

Lillard has repeatedly pledged his loyalty to the Blazers, expressing a desire to spend his entire career in Portland and making it clear he’s not looking for an exit ramp. But he has also stressed that he doesn’t want to spend his last few prime years on a perennial lottery team. The seven-time All-Star will turn 33 this summer and the Blazers are running out of time to surround him with a strong supporting cast.

Heading into the 2023 offseason, it feels as if general manager Joe Cronin and the front office will get at least one more opportunity to turn the Lillard-led Blazers into a playoff team, but given how quickly situations can change in the NBA, you never know. It has become increasingly rare to get through an offseason without at least one star player making a trade request. If Lillard becomes that player this summer, the Blazers will be forced to alter their roster building plans in a major way.

The Blazers’ Offseason Plan:

The trade package the Blazers gave up for Grant last July wasn’t massive, but it wasn’t insignificant either. And given that Grant performed well in his first season in Portland, averaging 20.5 PPG with a career-best .401 3PT% and solid defense, there’s no reason to think the team won’t do all it can to re-sign the veteran forward this offseason to ensure that he’s not one-and-done as a Blazer.

Frankly, the Blazers would’ve preferred to lock up Grant to an in-season extension rather than having to compete with outside suitors in free agency, but CBA rules limited their maximum offer to about $113MM over four years. It appears Grant will opt for free agency instead, and that’s certainly justifiable — he’s in his prime and possesses a coveted skill set. It’s not unrealistic to expect him to match or exceed the four-year, $120MM deal that Gordon Hayward signed with Charlotte back in 2020.

Even if we assume the Blazers are able to re-sign Grant without engaging in a major bidding war, at least one more move will be required to tangibly upgrade the roster. The trade market might be Portland’s best bet, with Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe among the club’s top trade assets.

I’d expect the Blazers’ potential trade partners to view Sharpe as the more desirable player of those two, given his tantalizing ceiling. If Portland pursues a wing like OG Anunoby, for instance, Sharpe would likely be the first player the Raptors ask about. And there’s some logic in the idea that the Blazers would be open to moving Sharpe, figuring that the 19-year-old won’t reach his prime until Lillard has exited his.

Simons looks to me like the preferred trade chip from Portland’s perspective though. The Blazers’ Achilles heel during their eight consecutive postseason appearances from 2014-21 was that the undersized backcourt of Lillard and CJ McCollum couldn’t hold up defensively against the league’s best scorers. After trading away McCollum, the Blazers have essentially replicated that dynamic with Simons alongside Lillard — I’m skeptical they can seriously contend for a title with both players in their starting lineup.

Center Jusuf Nurkic could also be a trade candidate, given that his salary is appropriately sized for matching purposes. And Portland’s best overall trade chip might be its lottery pick. Of course, if the Blazers luck out and land the No. 1 overall choice, they’re hanging onto it and calling Victor Wembanyama‘s name on draft night. It would probably make sense to keep it at No. 2 or No. 3 too, since Brandon Miller is the sort of wing who would fit perfectly on the current roster.

The Blazers have less than a one-in-three shot to move into the top three though, so if their pick lands where it’s most likely to (No. 6 or No. 7), they should think long and hard about including it in a trade package for an impact player. Their future first-rounders are tied up to a certain extent because they owe one to Chicago that’s protected through 2028, and beyond the top three players, this year’s draft class is heavy on question marks and light on players who are expected to make an immediate impact.

Besides Grant, the Blazers have a handful of other noteworthy players up for new contracts. Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle are eligible for restricted free agency and seem more likely to receive qualifying offers now than they did three months ago, having finished the season strong in Portland.

It wouldn’t shock me if the Blazers re-sign both players. But of the two, I view Thybulle as the one more likely to get a qualifying offer and to remain with the team, since he’s the better defender and his QO is worth about $1.5MM less than Reddish’s.

Drew Eubanks and Justise Winslow will also be free agents. Eubanks has been a solid reserve and could be back as long as he’s willing to accept another minimum-salary deal or something close to it. Winslow showed flashes of promise in Portland, but couldn’t overcome the health issues that have plagued him his entire career. I wouldn’t expect him to stick with the Blazers unless they have trouble fortifying their wing depth in free agency or on the trade market.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

• Damian Lillard ($45,640,084)
• Anfernee Simons ($24,107,143)
• Jusuf Nurkic ($16,875,000)
• Shaedon Sharpe ($6,313,800)
• Nassir Little ($6,250,000)
• Keon Johnson ($2,808,720)
• Jabari Walker ($400,000)
  • Note: Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
• Total: $102,394,747
  

Dead/Retained Salary

• Andrew Nicholson ($2,844,430)
• Eric Bledsoe ($1,300,000)
• Didi Louzada ($268,032)
• Total: $4,412,462

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• Kevin Knox ($3,000,000): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $3,000,000

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Trendon Watford ($1,836,096)
• Jeenathan Williams ($1,719,864)
• Jabari Walker ($1,3198,64)
  • Note: Partial guarantee. Walker’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 20.
• Total: $4,875,824

Restricted Free Agents

• Cam Reddish ($7,744,600 qualifying offer / $17,863,362 cap hold): Bird rights
• Matisse Thybulle ($6,275,862 qualifying offer / $13,138,581 cap hold): Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $31,001,943

Two-Way Free Agents

• Ibou Badji: Non-Bird rights
• John Butler: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

• No. 5 overall ($7,858,920)
  • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
• No. 23 overall ($2,805,240)
• No. 43 overall (no cap hold)
• Total: $10,664,160

Extension-Eligible Players

• None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Jerami Grant ($31,432,500 cap hold): Bird rights
• Justise Winslow ($5,326,829 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Drew Eubanks ($1,989,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Ben McLemore ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Keljin Blevins ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• T.J. Leaf ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $46,278,421

Note: The cap holds for McLemore, Hollis-Jefferson, Blevins, and Leaf remain on the Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
• Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
• Trade exception: $8,300,000
• Trade exception: $2,626,019