Trail Blazers Rumors

Simons Misses Third Consecutive Game

  • Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons missed his third consecutive game during the team’s six-game road trip on Monday due to an right ankle sprain, the team’s PR department tweets.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.


Jordan Clarkson, G, Jazz

  • 2022/23: $13.34MM
  • 2023/24: $14.26MM player option
  • Stock: Up

Clarkson is expected to decline his player option to land a long-term contract in free agency, which makes a lot of sense. He’s averaging career highs in points (20.8) and assists (4.4) per game and has matched his career best in rebounds per night (4.0) while posting a .444/.338/.816 shooting slash line (.558 true shooting percentage).

The veteran guard will turn 31 years old in the offseason, so this might be his last chance to land a major multiyear payday. He is an all-around poor defensive player, but his play-making has improved this season, and his shot-creation ability is widely coveted.

I don’t have a great feel for how much Clarkson might get in free agency. His representatives could point to the contracts signed by Anfernee Simons (four years, $100MM) and Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM guaranteed) last summer, for example – Clarkson is much older and has less upside, but his strengths, weaknesses and production are fairly similar to those players.

If I were a GM, I would be very hesitant to pay Clarkson that much money, but he has earned a raise on his current deal, that much is certain.

Udoka Azubuike, C, Jazz

  • 2022/23: $2.17MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Down

A former first-round pick (No. 27 overall in 2020), Azubuike has unfortunately dealt with a few significant ankle injuries in his brief NBA career, which has impacted his development. Utah declined its fourth-year team option on the 23-year-old big man before the season started, sending a strong signal that he wasn’t in the team’s long-term plans.

Azubuike has only appeared in 26 games this season for an average of 5.9 minutes per contest. It’s hard to get much of a read on someone who plays so little, but he is a limited offensive player who struggles at the free throw line (he shot 41.6% in four college seasons and is at 55.2% on very low volume in the NBA).

The remaining 17 games will essentially serve as an audition for Azubuike. How he performs — and if he gets minutes — could very well determine whether or not he’s able to land a guaranteed contract in the offseason. The odds of that happening seem lower than 50/50 at the moment.

Naz Reid, C, Timberwolves

  • 2022/23: $1.93MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Up

Reid’s per 36 numbers have been quite consistent in each of his four seasons. So why is his stock up?

The primary reason is he’s shown that his game is scalable, meaning his production doesn’t suffer with more playing time. The 23-year-old is averaging 16.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.0 block in 11 games as a fill-in starter (26.1 minutes), with the team going 6-5 in those contests. Playing well against reserves is one thing, but doing it over the course of a full game against starters is something entirely different.

Reid has slimmed down considerably since going undrafted out of LSU in 2019 and has shown that he is a quality backup center capable of spot starts. Something in the range of $8-11MM annually seems within reach — a massive increase on his current minimum-salary contract.

Jaylen Nowell, G, Timberwolves

  • 2022/23: $1.93MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Down

I liked what I saw from Nowell last season and thought he should have gotten more minutes at times. He is shifty with the ball with a quick first step, and shows some nascent play-making ability.

Something has been off with him for nearly the entire ‘22/23 season, which is unfortunate because he had a big opportunity to establish himself after the Rudy Gobert trade freed up backcourt playing time.

Maybe that’s part of the problem. He often looks like he’s trying too hard and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, often a sign of a player pressing. The steep decline in three-point shooting — from 39.4% last season to 29.3% in ‘22/23 — looks like another mental hurdle, as he hesitates at times even when he’s wide open, instead of trusting himself and letting it fly.

Nowell is only 23 and on a minimum deal. He will get more than that in free agency, but probably not as much as he was aiming for before the season began.

Drew Eubanks, C, Trail Blazers

  • 2022/23: $1.84MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Up

Another player on a minimum-salary deal, Eubanks plays within a clearly defined, limited offensive role of setting hard screens, rolling for the occasional lob, and crashing the offensive glass. His averages of 6.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks don’t exactly jump off the page, though he is shooting an impressive 68.3% from the field through 62 games (19 starts, 19.9 minutes).

However, he is an above-average defensive player who moves his feet well for a big man, allowing him to switch onto smaller players better than most centers. The 26-year-old is also a solid rim protector, making up for his relative lack of height (he’s 6’9”) with powerful leaping ability and solid timing while challenging and blocking shots.

Eubanks isn’t the type of player who is going to land a major payday in free agency, but I do think he’s solidified himself as a quality backup due to his consistent energy and the self-awareness he brings of knowing his role. The Blazers have been better when he’s on the court, which is always a positive sign. A multiyear deal in the range of $4-7MM per season seems pretty reasonable.

Trade Breakdown: Josh Hart To The Knicks (Four-Team Deal)

This is the fifth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal four-team deal involving the Knicks, Trail Blazers, Sixers and Hornets.


On February 9:

  • The Knicks acquired Josh Hart, the draft rights to Bojan Dubljevic, and the draft rights to Daniel Diez (all from Trail Blazers).
  • The Trail Blazers acquired Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, the Knicks’ 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected), and the draft rights to Ante Tomic (from Knicks).
  • The Sixers acquired Jalen McDaniels, the Knicks’ 2024 second-round pick (from Hornets), and the Trail Blazers’ 2029 second-round pick.
  • The Hornets acquired Svi Mykhailiuk, either the Hornets’, Hawks’, or Nets’ 2023 second-round pick (whichever is most favorable; from Sixers), and either the Pelicans’ or Trail Blazers’ 2027 second-round pick (whichever is most favorable; from Trail Blazers).
  • Note: The Hornets had traded away their 2023 second-round pick in a prior deal.

Note: The Blazers, Sixers and Hornets all generated traded player exceptions in this deal, which can be found here.

The Knicks’ perspective:

Any time you deal away a first-round pick, even if it’s lottery-protected, ideally you want to re-sign the player you’re acquiring, particularly a player who can become a free agent in the offseason like Hart. The Knicks almost certainly would not have made this deal for 25 games of Hart – you can bet that they intend to bring him back, and they have his Bird rights, meaning they won’t require cap room to sign him.

Hart has already said multiple times that he’s looking for a home, is tired of moving, and hopes to remain with New York. That would certainly suggest that there’s mutual interest in the veteran wing sticking with the Knicks, even if the they haven’t publicly said anything about it.

I liked Hart’s fit with the Knicks when the trade was announced, and he has played very well for New York — the team is undefeated in his eight games. He’s averaging 11.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals on .618/.600/.667 shooting in 27.0 MPG thus far.

Obviously, those shooting splits are unsustainable, but Hart has a lot of desirable qualities that mesh well with the players on the roster. One interesting wrinkle is that Hart has been closing games over RJ Barrett, which I think is smart from head coach Tom Thibodeau – Hart is a better defender and doesn’t need the ball on offense. We’ll see if it continues going forward.

Hart has always struck me as a player Thibodeau would love because he plays with maximum effort, chasing after loose balls all over the court. He is a hard-nosed, versatile defensive player. He also is a solid passer on offense, even if he’s fairly limited as a half-court scorer.

The 27-year-old (he turns 28 on Monday) compensates for his relative lack of half-court scoring by being an absolute bull in transition, often pulling down rebounds and going coast-to-coast. He is one of the best rebounders in the league for a wing, particularly for his size (6’5”, 215 pounds), averaging 7.7 boards per game over the past three seasons.

There are two primary knocks against Hart. One is his all-out playing style has led to a number of injuries. He has missed an average of about 19 games per season in his five years leading up to 2022/23, though he has only been sidelined for three this season, not counting the two games missed due to the trade.

The second is that teams are going to dare him to shoot threes, as he’s only at 34.7% for his career from downtown (the league average is 36.0% this season). He was weirdly reluctant to shoot threes with Portland, going through long stretches where he would pass up wide-open shots. That inhibits offensive spacing and can be problematic when paired with a non-shooting big.

Still, he is a valuable role player who does a solid job defending against tough competition, and his ability to make plays for himself and others — especially on fast breaks — is a nice addition to the Knicks. They’re 27th in pace, so he gives them some extra juice.

Reddish had not played in a game since December 3, and trading a protected first-rounder for him last year didn’t pan out. Arcidiacono and Mykhailiuk rarely saw the court, only playing a combined 66 minutes all season for New York. Trading away three players who weren’t contributing to the team’s on-court success for an impactful role player who almost immediately started closing games is a big deal, especially considering the Knicks have only made the playoffs once in the past nine years.


The Trail Blazers’ perspective:

Portland received a former first-round pick in Reddish and the Knicks’ lottery-protected first-rounder this season for a high-end role player in Hart. Arcidiacono was included for salary-matching purposes and is unlikely to have a role, but he’s not a bad fallback option as a third-string point guard – he takes care of the ball and is a decent shooter.

The Blazers also snagged Thybulle for a second-round pick (to Philly) and sent Charlotte another second-rounder to take a player they didn’t want (Mykhailiuk).

The primary reason the Blazers made this trade is that Hart has an odd contract and is expected to opt out of his player option in search of a long-term raise in free agency. Paying both Hart and Jerami Grant (UFA) would have pushed them into the luxury tax without other cost-cutting moves.

For as solid as Hart is, it’s not like Portland was going anywhere this season whether he was in the lineup or not. It’s a shame, because Damian Lillard has been phenomenal (he’s averaging a career-high 32.3 points with a 65.3 true shooting percentage — he’s at peak Stephen Curry levels of volume and efficiency), but the roster just isn’t good enough to do much beyond fighting for the back end of the play-in tournament.

As previously mentioned, Hart was oddly reluctant to shoot threes this season with the Blazers and I’m not really sure why. However, he will be missed for everything else he provides — most of their problems stem from rebounding and defense anyway, and he was one of their best players in both of those categories.

I like the Thybulle pickup and he looks like a good fit on the roster. He isn’t going to keep shooting 51.6% from beyond the arc like he has through seven games as a Blazer, but he was pigeonholed into a very narrow role with the Sixers and I believe he can provide more all-around value than he showed with them.

Thybulle is an absolute menace on defense and he knows that’s what he’s best at. A part-time wing player earning All-Defensive nods two seasons in a row is practically unheard of, but those awards were well deserved. The Blazers need all the help they can get on that end.

Reddish has now been dealt twice in a little over a year, with his value diminishing pretty drastically – the Knicks gave up a protected first-rounder to acquire him last year, but now moved him and a lottery-protected first to land Hart. The 23-year-old, who was the No. 10 overall pick in 2019, has yet to solidify himself as a solid NBA player.

Like Thybulle, Reddish has played well for Portland so far, averaging 14.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals on .470/.373/.941 shooting in eight games (27.7 minutes). Those numbers far exceed his career averages, which are pretty underwhelming (10.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steal on .398/.327/.849 shooting in 161 games (24.7 minutes).

Both Thybulle and Reddish can be restricted free agents in the summer if the Blazers extend each of them a qualifying offer – I don’t think that’s a lock for either player, particularly Reddish.

The first-rounder Portland acquired from New York would currently land at No. 23 overall, which is decent. Definitely nothing to scoff at for a player on a pseudo-expiring contract whom the Blazers couldn’t reasonably afford to retain given the overall state of the team. If the Knicks go in a major slump to end the season and miss the playoffs — which seems extremely unlikely considering how hot they’ve been lately — the Blazers would instead receive four second-round picks.

Another aspect of this deal from Portland’s side is that it probably made them worse in the short term, which increases the odds of missing the playoffs and keeping their own lottery pick. The Blazers owe their pick to the Bulls if they make the postseason – if it doesn’t convey this year, the protections roll over to 2024 (it’s lottery-protected for several years, which makes it difficult for the team to trade future picks due to the Stepien rule).


The Hornets’ perspective:

Charlotte’s side of things is pretty straightforward. The Hornets were concerned about how much McDaniels would cost in unrestricted free agency and decided to move him and get something of value while they could.

I don’t think they necessarily wanted to trade McDaniels, especially after spending four years working with him on developing his game and seeing it start to pay off. Forwards who are 6’9″ with a bit of two-way versatility aren’t exactly common.

The problem is that Gordon Hayward is under contract through next season, the Miles Bridges situation still isn’t resolved, P.J. Washington will be a restricted free agent this summer, and Kelly Oubre is unrestricted. McDaniels is arguably the worst player of the group, making him relatively expendable.

The Hornets are almost certainly getting back their own 2023 second-rounder in the deal, which Philadelphia previously controlled and would currently land at No. 34 overall. Charlotte sent New York’s 2024 second-rounder to the Sixers as part of the multi-team agreement, which was slightly surprising, but if the Knicks are good again next year, that pick would land in the back half of the second round.

That No. 34 overall selection has real value and could be packaged with other seconds to move into the late first round this June. It could also be paired with Denver’s first-rounder (currently No. 28), which the Hornets control, to move up a little. Either way, it gives them more options in the upcoming draft and for trades.

The Hornets also picked up a 2027 second-rounder from Portland to take on Mykhailiuk’s salary. It’s reasonable to view that as a higher upside pick than the Knicks’ second-rounder they shipped to Philly. President of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak selected Mykhailiuk No. 47 overall back in 2016 when he was with the Lakers, so there is a connection there, but it seems unlikely that the veteran wing will have much of a role going forward.


The Sixers’ perspective:

The key takeaway from the Sixers’ side of things is they moved out of the luxury tax and arguably upgraded on the wing at the same time. I’m not sure I would take McDaniels over Thybulle in a vacuum, but it’s at worst debatable and he certainly provides length and positional size, which the team lacked.

Thybulle is a terrific defensive player, but he wasn’t consistently in the rotation this season due to his offensive limitations. He seemed to fall out of favor with the team after last year’s poor playoff showing, and the Sixers decided to trade him instead of letting him reach free agency.

McDaniels was averaging career highs in all the major counting stats for Charlotte, including points (10.6), rebounds (4.8), assists (2.0), steals (1.2) and minutes (26.7) per game. The 25-year old also hasn’t missed a game this season, which is impressive (he technically did miss one game due to the trade, but that was out of his control).

McDaniels doesn’t stand out in any one particular area, which is sort of a double-edged sword. It means he’s versatile enough to do a lot of different things on the court, but none at an elite level.

The big question mark with McDaniels is essentially the same as it was with Thybulle: can he make enough threes to stay on the court against top teams? With a roster loaded with talented scorers, other types of shots are hard to come by for role players like McDaniels. He is only at 34.1% for his career from deep, including 32.1% this season.

The Sixers picked up his Bird rights as part of the trade, giving them the ability to offer McDaniels more money and years than rival teams. For what they gave up, they likely aren’t committed to re-signing him though, nor should they be. They have the rest of the season to evaluate him and see how he does in the playoffs.

The 25-year-old’s minutes have been cut back pretty significantly since the trade, and his role is more in line with what it would be on a good team (which Philadelphia is). He was getting more run with the Hornets out of necessity due to injuries.

As previously mentioned, the Sixers basically swapped second-round picks with Charlotte, though the one they got back has far less upside. They also received Portland’s 2029 second-rounder for Thybulle — not much of a return, but he was only averaging 12.1 minutes per game with Philly this season and is on an expiring contract.

Anfernee Simons Aggravated Ankle Injury On Wednesday

  • After being sidelined due to a right ankle sprain, Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons returned to action on Wednesday, but he aggravated the injury in his first game back and said that he doubted he’d be able to play in Atlanta on Friday, per Jason Quick of The Athletic (Twitter link). Simons has since been ruled out for tonight’s game (Twitter link).

Warriors’ Joe Lacob Discusses Wiseman, Payton, Timeline

Warriors owner Joe Lacob, who was known to be a fan of center James Wiseman, said in a conversation with Tim Kawakami of The Athletic that it was “very hard” to trade the big man at last month’s deadline, suggesting that the team “might very well regret that one” down the road.

“But as much as I love the guy, I can’t overrule what our basketball ops and our coaches and our players felt was the right thing to do,” Lacob said. “So it’s a consensus thing. We’re ‘we,’ we’re not ‘me.’ And we’re going to do what the best thing is and we felt it would improve our team short term and kind of went for it for Gary (Payton II).

Lacob added that it took some convincing for him to get on board with the idea of sending Wiseman to Detroit and admitted that he’s keeping an eye on how the former No. 2 pick performs with the Pistons.

“I think James is a really good young player and we’re not going to get many opportunities to draft a young guy like that again,” Lacob said. “And he really didn’t … let’s be honest, he didn’t really have a chance; it’s partially his fault, partially bad luck, partially our fault for not playing him enough. But we’re not getting an opportunity to get a big talent like that with size very often. I mean, it was a very hard decision for the organization, to be quite honest.”

Kawakami’s interview with Lacob included a few more intriguing comments from the Warriors’ owner, including his thoughts on how the negotiations with the Trail Blazers for Payton played out.

The conversation is worth checking out in full if you’re an Athletic subscriber, but here are a few highlights:

On how upset the Warriors were when Payton failed his physical following the trade:

“Very. … I think we all were. We were shocked. Because, you know, on the one hand, he was playing (for Portland), which would indicate he was healthy. But when you ask someone … they only have minutes to make these trades at the trade deadline. It’s kind of an honor code here. Forget what’s in the records, which you see later.

“I think we felt that they were disingenuous.”

On whether being able to reacquire Payton was the only reason the Warriors traded Wiseman:

“No. I don’t think (when) we started out we thought he’d be available, to be honest. He was expensive last year, that contract, we couldn’t really afford it. But given what we did with Wiseman, we took some money off the books. Our biggest weakness, you could argue, has been perimeter defense. So we felt it was a good move to make.

“One thing about (Payton) that I did like a lot, assuming he’s healthy and when he’s healthy, he knows how to play with our team. And the coaches know how to coach him. So he’s going to come in right away, there’s no, like … all these guys make these trades with 22 games to go, and I’m not going to name names, but it’s hard to integrate somebody who hasn’t been on your team. That guy’s been on our team. That’s a big advantage.”

On the Warriors’ supposed “two-timeline plan” (of veteran stars and young prospects):

“There’s only one timeline. I don’t know where this two-timelines thing comes from. There’s one timeline. You have a roster that you try to put together given financial constraints and given what’s available and what you can get. And when you have the salary structure at the top of the roster like we do, which is huge, the bottom or lower half of the roster has to be either minimums or young players. Either way, they’re smaller salaries.”

Simons Returns To Action Wednesday

  • Anfernee Simons returned to the Trail Blazers‘ starting lineup on Wednesday night, the team announced (via Twitter). The fifth-year guard was dealing with a Grade 2 right ankle sprain, but he returned to action fairly quickly; he was technically out 15 days, but only missed three games due to the All-Star break.

Northwest Notes: Lillard, Conley, Gilgeous-Alexander

Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard became the second player to reach the 70-point mark this season, torching the Rockets for 71 points on Sunday, writes Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. Playing for the first time since the All-Star break, Lillard made 13 three-pointers on the night, one short of the NBA record, and reached 41 points by halftime.

“I think any hooper enjoys those moments when you’re hot, you’re in attack mode, you’re feeling good,” Lillard said. “But it’s the stuff afterward that I struggle with, like when I walked off the court, was I supposed to be overly excited, or what?”

Lillard set a career high for scoring and broke the single-game franchise record of 61 points, which he had reached twice. Speaking to reporters after the game, including Aaron Fentress of The Oregonian, coach Chauncey Billups marveled at the performance by Lillard, who is in the midst of the highest-scoring season of his career at age 32.

“He just wasn’t forcing at all,” Billups said. “He understood what they were going to come out and do. And that takes some incredible discipline to know, all right, I’m not gonna force it. I’m just gonna fall back. And that was just so impressive to me.”

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

  • Lillard hasn’t wavered in his commitment to the Trail Blazers, but the opportunity to compete for a title remains very important to him, according to Baxter Holmes of ESPN. Lillard points to Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee and Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas as examples of players who were able to get a ring after critics said they needed to move on to another team. “We devalue people’s body of work if you don’t win a championship,” Lillard said. “I’ve shown up for 11 straight years. Just think about how much time that is. When you really think about 11 straight years and I’ve given them something to cheer for. We’ve won a lot of games. I’ve given them great performances. I don’t give excuses. I give them my all.”
  • Timberwolves guard Mike Conley sees a lot that the team needs to correct before it can make a playoff run, per Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. Minnesota let a lead slip away Sunday night while losing to the shorthanded Warriors. “We can talk about the last two minutes, but there’s a lot of things that go on … that set us up for those positions,” Conley said. “Youth will do that. You get guys worried about missing a shot and they turned it over and might be thinking about that particular play too long. Then they miss an assignment on the defensive end. It’s all little things that can be fixed.”
  • The Thunder are optimistic that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won’t be sidelined much longer, states Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. The star guard missed his second straight game on Sunday with an abdominal strain and right ankle soreness, but there’s hope that he might return Tuesday.

Community Shootaround: NBA’s Race To The Bottom

Coming into the 2022/23 season, there was some concern that the presence of Scoot Henderson and (especially) Victor Wembanyama at the top of the 2023 draft class could result in some pretty aggressive tanking from the bottom third of the NBA’s teams.

It hasn’t played out that way so far though, due to a competitive race for the top 10 spots in each conference. In the West, the top 13 teams all either hold a playoff or play-in spot or are no more than 1.5 games back of the No. 10 seed. It’s not quite as congested in the East, but the conference’s 13th team is only four games out of a play-in spot.

As a result, there have been only four teams in full-on “race for Wembanyama” mode, and one of those four clubs hasn’t exactly been in tanking mode as of late, winning its last four games. Here’s what the bottom of the NBA’s standings look like as of Sunday morning:

  1. Houston Rockets (13-46)
  2. San Antonio Spurs (14-47)
  3. Detroit Pistons (15-46)
  4. Charlotte Hornets (19-43)
  5. Orlando Magic (25-36)
  6. Indiana Pacers (27-35)
  7. Chicago Bulls (27-33)
  8. Los Angeles Lakers (28-32)
  9. (tie) Portland Trail Blazers / Oklahoma City Thunder / Washington Wizards (28-31)

Given that the odds for the No. 1 pick are the same for each of the NBA’s three worst teams, it seemed as if we’d get a four-team race for those three spots at the bottom of the standings. But the Hornets have won their last four games and appear far better positioned to continue getting victories than the Rockets (losers of eight in a row and 23 of their last 26), the Spurs (losers of 15 in a row and 21 of 22), and the Pistons (losers of four in a row and seven of their last eight).

Of course, if the Hornets were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d still end up with just 29 wins, so they may end up with the NBA’s fourth-worst record even if they finish strong. After all, the Bulls, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Wizards all seem motivated to make the play-in.

The Magic, Pacers, and Thunder are perhaps candidates for stealth end-of-season tanks in order to secure top-five lottery odds, since none of those clubs expected to be a playoff team this season. But they’ve been competitive all season and would probably have to start ruling out some of their top players due to injuries if they want to start winning less often (similar to what Portland did last year).

As for the race to the bottom among the NBA’s three worst teams, it’s hard to bet against the Rockets, who also finished with the league’s worst record in 2021 and 2022. But the Spurs are giving them a run for their money with their recent stretch of futility, posting an abysmal -15.8 net rating during their 15-game current losing streak. And the Pistons seem happy to experiment with new lineups while incorporating recently added players.

We want to know what you think. How will the race for lottery positioning play out the rest of the way? Which team will finish as the NBA’s worst? Has the Hornets’ recent success locked them into the fourth spot in the lottery standings? Are there any teams with 25 or more wins that you expect to go into full-on tank mode in the coming days or weeks?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

Northwest Notes: Timberwolves, SGA, Jokic, Gordon, Butler

Following a disappointing 121-113 Friday night defeat to the lottery-bound Hornets, the Timberwolves came under fire from their own head coach and starting center, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic.

“It’s just a sense of urgency,” head coach Chris Finch said of what the Timberwolves are missing. “It’s just not there. We just talked about it – you can’t wait. It’s a 20-game season. We have nothing to wait for. You’ve got to go. We only have seven home games left and we’ve got a tough schedule. I think it’s just that urgency. We’ve got to have more urgency from the get-go. We’re not playing desperate enough.”

Minnesota big man Rudy Gobert had a solid individual night, scoring 17 points, pulling down 10 boards and swatting three shots, but was frustrated with his club’s effort.

“We have to decide who we want to be,” said Gobert. “We had a tough loss going into the break, and you would think we would come back with some urgency, but we started the game just like we finished the previous one.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

  • All-Star Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will miss his second straight game, the team’s home contest against the Kings Sunday, due to an abdominal strain and a sore right ankle, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. The ankle isn’t considered a major issue. “I think if that was the only thing he was dealing with, he would probably try to go,” head coach Mark Daigneault said. “But the hip flexor thing (abdominal strain) is what we’re being careful with.”
  • The burgeoning bond between the Nuggets‘ starting frontcourt of MVP candidate Nikola Jokic and power forward Aaron Gordon is paying dividends on the hardwood, writes Kendra Andrews of ESPN. “The load that he can carry … he is a really strong guy,” Jokic said of Gordon. “He’s making sure he’s taking that advantage really seriously. It’s always an option for us … I know where to find him, how to throw him the ball. And he knows how to box his guys out to give me the space to throw him the ball.”
  • With no G League affiliate team of their own, the Trail Blazers announced (Twitter link) that they have transferred rookie center John Butler to the Kings’ Stockton NBAGL affiliate. The 7’1″ big man has played sparingly thus far while on his two-way contract with Portland, appearing in mop-up minutes in just nine games.