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Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

Pistons Rumors: Noel, Bey, Bogdanovic, Burks

December 13th, 2022 at 9:19am CST by Luke Adams

The Pistons are looking to move big man Nerlens Noel, sources tell James L. Edwards III of The Athletic. Noel has been the subject of a handful of rumors already this fall, with one report indicating he’s unlikely to finish the season in Detroit and another suggesting the Mavericks have talked to the Pistons about a possible deal.

Edwards confirms that the Mavericks have been one of the teams engaged in discussions on Noel, but names a handful of other potential suitors as well, reporting that the Trail Blazers, Kings, and Heat have also talked to the Pistons about the veteran center.

Noel has appeared in just 31 games since the start of the 2021/22 season due to a combination of injuries and a crowded Pistons frontcourt, so he’s unlikely to have much trade value. Still, his contract isn’t onerous — he’s earning $9.24MM this season and has a team option for 2023/24 that could be declined without his team owing him any additional money.

According to Edwards, Noel’s camp and the Pistons have agreed that a deal is in both sides’ best interests.

Here’s more on the Pistons from Edwards:

The Pistons have received inquires on Saddiq Bey and had discussions about the third-year forward, league sources tell The Athletic. Based on his conversations with people around the NBA, Edwards believes Bey is “gettable” at the right price, but he’s unsure of what the “right price” would be. Presumably, Detroit would still value the 23-year-old highly as a trade asset despite his struggles and his demotion from the starting lineup this season.
Following up on Monday’s Bojan Bogdanovic rumors, Edwards reiterates that the idea of keeping the forward beyond this season is appealing to the Pistons, who extended Bogdanovic in the hopes of retaining him, not increasing his trade value. Detroit hopes to turn a corner by next season, so the team isn’t enthusiastic about simply selling off a productive veteran like Bogdanovic.
Similarly, the Pistons like having veteran guard Alec Burks around, according to Edwards, who says “current signs point toward” the 31-year-old staying in Detroit beyond the trade deadline. Burks has a $10.5MM team option for next season, which is a reasonable price to pay based on his current production, and would give the club some flexibility if cap room needs to be created in the summer.

Payton Aiming To Return Soon; Billups Says Simons Just Scratching Surface

December 12th, 2022 at 9:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Guard Gary Payton II is targeting his season debut in the next week or two, Shams Charania of The Athletic reports. Payton signed a three-year, $26MM contract with the Trail Blazers as an unrestricted free agent in July, then had core muscle surgery during the offseason. Payton was a key rotation player on the Warriors’ championship team and the Blazers view him as a valuable reserve.
Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups has invested more time with Anfernee Simons than anyone else on the roster and it’s paying off, Jason Quick of The Athletic writes. Simons, who signed a four-year, $100MM extension during the summer, is averaging 24.2 points and is shooting 39.2% from 3-point range. “He’s still like PlayDoh; we are still shaping him,” Billups said. “He’s still scratching the surface, in my opinion.”

Western Notes: Grant, Nuggets, Smith, Fox

December 11th, 2022 at 8:33pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant has no regrets about leaving the Nuggets and signing with the Pistons during his last dip into the free agency pool, he told Mike Singer of the Denver Post. Grant signed a three-year, $60MM deal with rebuilding Detroit even though Denver offered a similar contract. Grant, who was dealt to Portland prior to this season, wanted to have a bigger offensive role.

“I think I just grew as a player,” said Grant, who could become a free agent again at the end of this season. “I gave myself an opportunity to become who I am today. I think I’ve been this player, but there was a lot of work I needed to do. I think I gave myself room to grow.”

We have more from the Western Conference:

The Nuggets continue to be subpar defensively despite their 16-10 record and coach Michael Malone says his team will never reach a championship level until it develops a defensive mentality, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. “We can’t pick and choose when we want to defend,” Malone said. “That’s what’s going on right now a little bit too often.” The Nuggets are allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking 26th in the NBA.
Rockets rookie forward Jabari Smith said prior to the team’s game against Milwaukee on Sunday that he viewed his matchup with Giannis Antetokounmpo as a measuring stick, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. “Looking at it like an opportunity to just learn, go out there and compete and measure yourself, see where you are, against some of the greatest in the world,” Smith said. “It’s fun. It’s challenging. It’s what I work for.” Houston won the game as Milwaukee’s superstar was held to 16 points. Smith had a poor shooting night but made three steals.
Kings star guard De’Aaron Fox didn’t play against the Knicks on Sunday due to foot soreness, Tim Bontemps of ESPN tweets. Fox, who is averaging 22.8 PPG with a .507/.366/.826 shooting line, has missed two consecutive games during the team’s six-game road trip. He recently disclosed that he’s been dealing with right foot soreness for over a month.

Health Updates: Lakers, Horford, Matthews, Payton

December 7th, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The Lakers will be shorthanded on Wednesday night in Toronto, according to Kyle Goon of the Southern California News Group, who tweets that star forwards Anthony Davis and LeBron James have both been ruled out by the team.

Davis is still battling the non-COVID illness that forced him to leave Tuesday’s contest in Cleveland early, while James is getting the second night of a back-to-back set off due to left ankle soreness. The Lakers have also listed guard Patrick Beverley as doubtful to play due to right knee soreness.

Here are a few more health-related updates from around the NBA:

Celtics big man Al Horford has been ruled out for Wednesday’s game vs. Phoenix after entering the NBA’s health and safety protocols, the team announced today (via Twitter). If Horford has tested positive for COVID-19, it will likely be at least a few days before he’s cleared to return, so his availability for the rest of Boston’s West Coast trip is up in the air.
Bucks wing Wesley Matthews has also been placed in the health and safety protocols and will be unavailable for Wednesday’s contest vs. Sacramento, tweets Eric Nehm of The Athletic. Like Horford, Matthews could miss more games beyond tonight’s.
Trail Blazers guard Gary Payton II is inching closer to his season debut following offseason abdominal surgery. Teammate Damian Lillard told reporters on Wednesday that Payton practiced in full today, tweets Aaron Fentress of The Oregonian.

Northwest Notes: Vanderbilt, Blazers, Wolves, Holmgren, Nuggets

December 6th, 2022 at 2:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Jazz forward Jarred Vanderbilt had one of his best games of the season vs. Portland on Saturday, registering 16 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals while making all four of his 3-point attempts.

As Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune notes, the performance was well-timed, given that Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard previously singled out Vanderbilt as someone he’d like to play with. On Saturday, Lillard responded to a tweet about Vanderbilt’s possible trade value with an eyes emoji, though he has since deleted that one.

Vanderbilt is on a team-friendly contract and is under team control for another season beyond this one, so the Jazz may not be motivated to move him at this season’s deadline. But if they do make him available, it seems safe to assume the Blazers will be among the teams inquiring, given Lillard’s influence within the organization.

Here are a few more items from around the Northwest:

Patrick Beverley is having a down year on the court in Los Angeles this season, but the Timberwolves have missed his locker room leadership, according to Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. Head coach Chris Finch said on Monday that the team is still seeking its identity and looking for leaders. “Everything about winning requires leadership. It’s something that we’ve not been great at,” Finch said. “We’re trying to find a voice collectively, trying to find a personality as a team. Those are things that we’ve got to keep working on, trying to cultivate as a team. That’s my job.”
As expected – and as long planned – Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren underwent a successful “secondary” procedure on his foot on Tuesday to remove hardware from his initial Lisfranc surgery in August, the team announced. According to the Thunder, the timeline for Holmgren’s recovery hasn’t changed, and he remains on track to return for the 2023/24 season.
Nuggets head coach Michael Malone is willing to take the blame for the club’s inconsistent bench play so far this season, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. “That unit has struggled most of the year, and I take responsibility for that,” Malone said. “Not finding a way to get those guys to play together, to play the right way, and most importantly, just to have some success.” Denver’s bench players have a net rating of minus-5.3, the third-worst mark in the NBA.

Billups Relieved After Rough Stretch

December 5th, 2022 at 8:35pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson has been fined $15K by the league, Andy Larsen of the Salt Lake Tribune tweets. Clarkson tossed his headband into the stands during the final seconds of Utah’s 116-111 loss to the Trail Blazers on Saturday.
Considering the Trail Blazers are above .500 despite losing star Damian Lillard for a stretch and playing 14 of their games on the road, coach Chauncey Billups is happy with the state of the team, Jason Quick of The Athletic writes. “We’re in a good spot,” he said. “We’ve been in a really tough stretch, maybe our toughest stretch of the season in terms of travel and games. We knew it was going to be a difficult stretch here, and that’s what it’s proven to be. But I think we are in a good spot.”

Simons Wishes He'd Gone For 50

December 4th, 2022 at 6:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons erupted for 45 points against the Jazz on Saturday and jokingly lamented he wanted more, Aaron Fentress of The Oregonian writes. “Back of my mind, I wanted 50,” Simons said. “There’s going to be plenty of opportunities for it. But it’s alright. We got the win.” Simons, who is filling the scoring void for injured Damian Lillard, is in the first season of a four-year, $100MM contract.

Damian Lillard Returns To Action Sunday

December 4th, 2022 at 6:42pm CST by Dana Gauruder

DECEMBER 4: As expected, Lillard is playing against Indiana tonight, Haynes tweets.

NOVEMBER 29: Trail Blazers perennial All-Star Damian Lillard is targeting a Sunday return from a leg injury, Chris Haynes reported during TNT’s Tuesday broadcast of the Clippers-Blazers game (video link). Portland begins a four-game homestand against the Pacers that night.

Lillard was diagnosed on Nov. 20 with a Grade 1 strain to the soleus muscle in the right lower leg. He was injured the previous night against Utah.

Lillard, who is averaging 26.3 points and 7.0 assists per game this season, also missed four contests earlier this season due to a calf strain. He sat out a majority of last season due to a core muscle issue.

Thus far during Lillard’s latest absence, the Blazers have lost to Milwaukee, Cleveland and Brooklyn and defeated New York in overtime. All those contests were on the road.

Following the Clippers’ matchup, Portland head out on the road again to play the Lakers on Wednesday and Utah on Saturday.

Highkin Thinks Grant, Blazers Will Work Out Extension

December 3rd, 2022 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

Responding to Michael Scotto’s interview with Jerami Grant, which addressed Grant’s upcoming free agency, Sean Highkin of the Rose Garden Report (Twitter link) says he doesn’t expect the Trail Blazers forward to even reach free agency next summer. Highkin believes the Blazers and Grant will reach an extension after he becomes eligible for a longer-term deal in January. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if Grant – who is having a career year so far – wants to try to get more than that, he’d have to wait for his current contract to expire and become a free agent.