As June 28th approaches, Hoops Rumors will preview the NBA draft by taking a look at a number of prospects expected to be selected. DraftExpress updated their top 100 ranking on May 25th, and our profiles are listed below accordingly. This list will continue to be updated in the coming weeks, becoming more comprehensive leading up to the draft, and can be found anytime under "Hoops Rumors Features" on the right sidebar.
If you've been following the fluctuating draft stocks of potential lottery picks, one name you've probably heard a lot is Syracuse guard Dion Waiters. Waiters was initially thought to be destined to go in the second half of the first round but lately his prospects are on the rise. Chad Ford recently bumped Waiters all the way up to eighth on his top 100 which probably was at least partly due to an NBA general manager telling him that outside of Anthony Davis, Waiters may have the most star potential in the draft.
While the 2012 draft class is widely recognized as deep and talent-rich, teams aren't quite as enthused about this year's crop of point guards. You can expect a good deal of movement and surprises between now and June 28th, but Damian Lillard and Kendall Marshall figure to be the first two point guards taken, unless Marshall's elbow injury is more serious than he is letting on. After those two, teams will look to the other available floor generals such as Kentucky's Marquis Teague.
The freshman had an up-and-down season as the Wildcats' starting one-guard and at times looked to be more than reckless with the basketball. However, he managed to shine on a team loaded with star power in March as he held things together and scored when given the opportunity. Teague was asked to be a distributor first and a scorer second in John Calipari's offense this season but showed that he could fill a stat sheet with the best of them in performances like his game against Iowa State where he had 24 points off of 10-of-14 shooting.
While it's an imperfect comparison stylistically, Teague has a knack for pushing the ball forward and weaving between defenders similar to Knicks guard Jeremy Lin. It's a skill that serves Teague well in transition but most agree that the youngster doesn't thrive in the halfcourt set. Any team that drafts Teague will have to have the patience to groom him into more effective ballhandler in slow offensive sets.
His inconsistency as a frosh at Kentucky raised a few questions about his NBA potential but the promise he showed as a high school prospect has left many scouts drooling over his upside. Teague didn't put up major points (10.0 PPG) in large part because he wasn't charged with scoring, but the guard put up 22.7 PPG in his senior year of high school. It was that offensive ability and tenacity that led Rivals to rank the Indiana native as the fifth-best talent in the 2011 class. ESPN's Chad Ford has Teague as the fourth-best point guard in the draft while DraftExpress has him at third, but virtually all evaluators agree that he must improve on his shooting ability and decision making in order to succeed at the next level. It remains to be seen whether Teague will go ahead of Washington's Tony Wroten Jr., but you can expect to see him land somewhere between the late teens and mid-20s.
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March Madness is the time when top draft prospects typically solidify their status or boost their stock considerably on college basketball's biggest stage. Unfortunately for North Carolina's Kendall Marshall, he didn't get the opportunity to show scouts what he could do against top competition in this year's tournament. The sophomore point guard hit the hardwood wrist-first after a layup against Creighton in the round of 32, ending his season prematurely. However, Marshall has shown scouts plenty ever since taking the reigns as UNC's starting point guard in his freshman season and made tremendous strides in 2011/12 as he led the talent-rich team.
One could also say that Marshall's importance to the Tarheels was underscored by his absence for the remainder of the tournament. UNC, despite having three more All-Americans outside of Marshall, would succumb to No. 2 Kansas in the Elite Eight. Surrounded by a multitude of scorers, including likely top ten pick Harrison Barnes, Marshall spread the wealth with his remarkable passing ability. This year, Marshall averaged 9.8 assists per contest while turning the ball over just 2.8 times per game. It seems likely that Marshall will have a relatively easy learning curve entering the league this year and can be plugged in to any style of offense. While there have been questions about fellow one-guard Damian Lillard's court vision, there are no such qualms when it comes to Marshall.
Unlike Lillard, Marshall hasn't shown that he can be an effective scorer at the next level. Marshall averaged just 8.1 PPG this season, but in his defense, he wasn't asked to shoot as a part of UNC's offense. The youngster's distribution skills are so solid that he'll never have to be a quality scorer to succeed in the Association. The real question is, can he score well enough in order to establish a triple threat? Marshall's defense has also been called into question by some NBA scouts who fear that he can be easily overwhelmed by quicker, more agile opponents.
As it stands now, DraftExpress has Marshall pegged to go No. 14 while ESPN's Chad Ford has him at No. 18. If Marshall chooses to make the rounds on the combine circuit heading into the draft and shows that he can score and defend in live action, he could easily find himself in the backend of the lottery.
The big men in this year's draft class are chock full of intrigue, few moreso than Illinois' Meyers Leonard. The 7'0", 240 pound center didn't play a whole lot for the Fighting Illini in his freshman season but clearly improved heading into his sophomore campaign. This year, Leonard anchored his team's front line with 30+ minutes per contest. The center found his touch around the rim in 2011/12 and also found his way to the weight room, making him a force to be reckoned with. It wasn't necessarily a surprise when Leonard declared for the draft in early April, but it was something of a shock to see him projected as a top half first-round pick by many prognosticators.
On the defensive end, Leonard is a disruptive force with a 7'3" wingspan. This year, the big man swatted just under two shots per game while averaging 0.5 steals. His length combined with his leaping ability is fun to watch in action, but the mere threat of it is what really throws off the opposition. Leonard can contain opposing big men and force guards to stay on the outside.
Offensively, Leonard's game is a work-in-progress. His post game still appears to be awkward and he'll have to add more moves and fakes to his arsenal in order to score effectively at the next level. However, Leonard knows his way around the pick-and-roll game and seems fairly comfortable scoring in motion. One way or another, he doesn't profile to be an elite scorer – his NBA dollars will be earned on the defensive end.
Where does this leave Leonard amongst centers in the 2012 class? He's not nearly as polished as Jared Sullinger or as safe as a Tyler Zeller and it's hard to imagine him raising his stock above either player. At the same time, he could sneak into the back end of the lottery depending on where the ping-pong balls fall in Secaucus, New Jersey. Workouts leading up the draft will make or break his draft position. His ceiling figures to be in the high teens and his floor somewhere in the early twenties.
Yesterday, Sam Amick of SportsIllustrated.com ran down the "safe bets" of the 2012 draft class, a list of eleven prospects including Weber State's Damian Lillard. The point guard might not be the next Deron Williams or Chris Paul, but he has a proven track record of success and, as his inclusion on the list implies, doesn't seem likely to backfire in the face of the GM who tabs him. While the Big Sky conference isn't known for pumping out top-notch NBA talent each year, Lillard is unquestionably a first-round talent. Exactly how high can Lillard go? In a draft class devoid of elite one-guards, the 6'2" slasher could go inside of the top ten.
Lillard wasn't featured on national television on a weekly basis like many of his peers in the top half of mock drafts, but the guard made himself known as one of the nation's top scorers with 24.5 points off of 46.7% shooting. The junior seems to have a knack for finding the smallest of seams and attack the basket but can also sit back at knock down the long-range shot when given enough breathing room. Lillard was always an adept three-point shooter but in 2011/12, he shot 40.9% from downtown, a collegiate career best.
Scoring is what Lillard does exceptionally well, but his distribution skills could use a little bit more seasoning. Like a quarterback, a one-guard has to be able to evaluate multiple options at once, rather than lock on to just one recipient. That's not to say that Lillard is overly turnover prone, but his passing game would improve by leaps and bounds with greater peripheral vision. Lillard turned the ball over 2.8 times per contest in his sophomore season but chiseled that number down to a more economical 2.3 per game in his junior campaign.
You'll be hard-pressed to find a draft expert that doesn't consider Lillard to be one of the two best point guards in the 2012 class. The Weber State standout was also loved by John Hollinger's favorite metric as he had the second-highest PER in the nation to go along with being the No. 2 scorer. It's a two-horse race between Lillard and Kendall Marshall to be the first one-guard off of the board – expect to see the little guy beat to beat out the North Carolina floor general.
If you're not overly familiar with the work of Mississippi State's Arnett Moultrie, you're probably not alone. The 6-foot-11, 200 pound big man might not have the mass appeal of others in this year's draft class but his stock appears to be on the rise. As of today, Moultrie is slated to go No. 25 on DraftExpress' mock draft and Chad Ford of ESPN.com has him pegged at No. 16 to the Rockets. Ford goes a step further, even suggesting that the Pistons could snag him all the way at No. 9 (if they land there after the lottery). So, what is Moultrie all about and why does he have NBA scouts drooling over his upside?
Moultrie lost a season after transferring from UTEP to Mississippi State but showed few, if any, signs of rust in his junior year. The forward/center averaged 16.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and anchored the Bulldogs' frontline with just under 36 minutes of play per contest. While there have been plenty of question marks surrounding teammate Renardo Sidney, few scouts have doubted Moultrie's on-court intensity. The center has shown that he has a knack for hunting down the loose ball and a strong desire to win the one-on-one battles on the offensive glass.
Moultrie's post-game looked to be adequate at the college level but he'll have to build on his repertoire significantly at the next level. He's also shown that he can knock down mid-range shots in stretches, but he'll have to turn that into a go-to weapon with time. The big man loves to rely on the two-handed slam to finish off a play, as evidenced by his 55% field goal percentage, but he'll obviously need more ways to score.
The junior has also made strides in his defensive game but his lanky frame is likely to take a beating in the Association if he doesn't add on some weight. Until he grows into his 6'11" frame, his future team would be best served by grooming him to play the power forward position. He has the speed to get up and down the floor in a hurry and could do some serious damage in a fast-paced offense. It wouldn't be surprising to see a team that's high on Moultrie trade up to the early teens to nab the 21-year-old if he escapes the top ten.
Out of all the probable lottery-bound prospects, you likely won't see any name as positionally scattered across mock drafts as that of UConn's Jeremy Lamb. In his latest insider mock, ESPN's Chad Ford has Lamb going at 17, though he admits that some NBA GMs have him as a top 7 or 8 talent. Draft Express ranks Lamb as the number 12 prospect in the draft. What a difference a year can make:
Last year at this time, Connecticut had just improbably won the NCAA Tournament largely due to the brilliance of Kemba Walker. But Lamb, then a freshman, played Robin to Walker's Batman and was a very hot name in draft discussions, even being mentioned as a top-5 candidate. Statistically, Lamb did nothing as a sophomore to drop his draft stock. He assumed the role of top dog for the Huskies and averaged over 17 points-per-game. But along the way, that top-5 luster wore off.
At about 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds, Lamb has plenty of size to play the two guard position in the NBA, especially when considering his length. Lamb is impossibly long for his height, with a wingspan of over 7 feet. As a guard, this attribute alone makes him a good defender. Lamb is able to get his hands into passing lanes and contest jump shots unlike most players at his height and position. Lamb is also an excellent athlete which obviously helps on the defensive end of the floor.
Lamb's athleticism and elevation ability give him special potential on the offensive side of the ball. He can finish at the rim and score over bigger players because of his length. He also can rise up and shoot over defenders with ease. Essentially, while Lamb is only 6-foot-5, anyone playing against him would swear he is taller. He exhibits a smoothness on offense that, whether it tangibly matters or not, is impressive to watch.
Lamb's shooting ability is a contention point in many scouting circles. As a freshman, his lanky frame and long arms drew Reggie Miller comparisons. He also shot over 36 percent from three. But as a sophomore, that percentage dropped to 33.6, bringing up questions of shot selection (he took over 6 threes a game). Lamb's midrange jumper is likely his deadliest weapon, though he can tend to rely too heavily on it instead of attacking the rim. Overall, Lamb projects as at least a good NBA shooter, with the potential to be very good.
The questions on Lamb's shot selection may stem from his biggest question mark: his seemingly passive attitude. While Lamb has shown the killer instinct to take over games, he also at times seems disinterested. UConn had some chemistry issues this year which were only exacerbated by Jim Calhoun's medical leave. Without the luxury of a full season of Calhoun and the veteran presence of a guy like Kemba Walker, Lamb showed some immaturity. The interview portion of the draft process will likely be important for him.
From a physical standpoint, Lamb needs to put on weight fast to be able to take the pounding of an NBA season. He also needs work as a passer. As an NBA shooting guard, unless you're an elite scorer, passing is not a part of the game that you can just forego. When Lamb is interested and at his best, it isn't hard to see why his name was at the top of draft boards a year ago. Should he fall into the late lottery or beyond as Ford has projected, someone could be getting the steal of the draft. But it is more likely that he will go in the 9-12 range.
Along with power forward, shooting guard is among the most loaded positions in the upcoming draft, making the decision of Washington's Terrence Ross to leave school early a little curious. But Ross did enjoy a breakout year as a sophomore Husky in 2011-12, averaging 16.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per contest. At 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds, Ross has ideal size to play shooting guard in the NBA assuming he adds some muscle to his lean frame.
Projected anywhere from the late lottery to the late teens, Ross would represent great value after pick number 15. While he doesn't jump off the page as a future star, he lacks weaknesses and does seem like the quintessential shooting guard (think a ceiling of Eddie Jones). Ross is a very good shooter, a good athlete and is explosive enough to finish with force at the rim.
Ross at times can fall in love with the outside shot, but that sometimes works in his favor. He shot over 37 percent from three as a sophomore at Washington, a number particularly impressive considering he attempted 5.5 treys a game. Ross also has an above average pull-up game and can knock down shots coming off screens. Ross would be ideal for a team like Philadelphia that is desperate for a traditional two-guard.
Ross' game is solid – scouts neither rave about any of his strong suits nor dwell on his weaknesses. If there are any significant knocks on Ross, they are his ballhandling and basketball IQ. Ross needs to work on his shot selection, as he sometimes pulls the trigger at the wrong time. He sometimes doesn't seem to have a good feel for the game. While he can finish at the rim via dunk, his mediocre ballhandling limits the ways he can get there. He thrives on the fast break or coming off back screens or cuts, but breaking a defender down off the dribble is not his forte.
Two big pluses to Ross' game, particularly as a shooting guard, are his defense and fearlessness. Ross has the concept of "irrational confidence" that basketball people talk about down pat, which is crucial for a scorer. Perhaps this is a positive side effect of his lower than ideal basketball IQ. He is not afraid to take big shots regardless of how many he has missed that night. His size and athleticism enables him to be an above average defender despite not being particularly long. His defense projects to translate at the NBA level.
Ross will need to add some bulk to his 190 pound frame if he is to fulfill his potential at the next level. His well-rounded game is almost certain to put him in an NBA rotation in the near future. Whether he can develop into more likely depends on if he can develop any of the solid aspects of his game – shooting, scoring, defending – into an an elite skill.
The commitment of Queens native Moe Harkless to St. John's kickstarted a surprisingly talent-rich recruiting class for Steve Lavin & Co for 2011. While the speedy small forward was seen as a big get for the Red Storm, the program probably wasn't expecting him to break out in his freshman campaign and declare for the draft. However, after scoring 25 in a losing effort against Pittsburgh in the Big East Tournament, it quickly became evident that Harkless would be a first-round pick.
As a fairly raw but intriguing talent, Harkless' draft status is based largely on upside rather than what he can contribute to an NBA team in 2012/13. The 6'8" forward was charged with the task of playing at the 4 for St. John's this past season, not unreasonable for a player of his size but still out of place for someone with his skill set. Harkless, for the most part, did just fine in this role and averaged 1.4 blocks and 1.6 steals per contest as he played out of position. On an NBA court, Harkless undoubtedly projects to the small forward position.
There were plenty of games in 2011/12 where Harkless looked like an elite scorer. Just ask the Duke Blue Devils, who watched the forward drop 30 points off of 13-of-21 shooting (plus 13 boards) in late January. Harkless put together this and other strong offensive performances with his ability to slash to the basket. Meanwhile, he has yet to show that he has much in the way of range. If Harkless hopes to produce consistently at the next level, he'll have to develop his jumper in order to keep defenders honest.
So where does a hyper-athletic small forward with significant upside fit on this draft board? Likely just outside of the lottery and behind the likes of Baylor's Quincy Miller, who offers similar promise but with a sweet shooting stroke. Currently, DraftExpress has Harkless going at No. 22 while the latest mock draft from Chad Ford of ESPN.com pegs him at No. 24. Wherever Harkless lands, you can expect the partisan crowd at New Jersey's Prudential Center to give their nod of approval.