Prospect Profile

Prospect Profile: Tony Wroten

May 9th, 2012 at 6:46pm CST by Chuck Myron

The draft is an inexact science that’s not for the faint of heart in NBA front offices, and deciding whether to take one first-round prospect in particular already has a few executives sweating. Most teams are “scared to death” of Washington point guard Tony Wroten, as Chad Ford wrote in an ESPN.com Insider piece last month. His poor decisions with the ball, deficient shooting and lack of ability to lift his team raise serious doubts about whether he can fulfill an upside that Ford says could be the best of any point guard in the draft. That Wroten once listed J.R. Smith, another questionable decision maker, as his favorite player of all-time, doesn’t exactly ease anyone’s mind. If he were judged on talent alone, Joe Treutlein of Draft Express believes the freshman would be a top 10 pick, while Ford says he would be in the top five. The doubts about him bring the official ESPN and Draft Express projections down to 21st, while NBADraft.net sees him going 26th.

It would be easy to dismiss the 19-year-old if he weren't so full of potential. His ability to get to the basket, draw fouls and make dazzling passes is hard to match. Making the difficult pass, however, means little if you can't consistently make the routine pass, and this year Wroten averaged more turnovers per game (3.8) than assists (3.7). That's as much of an indictment as any for a point guard. Treutlein points out that the lefty plays almost completely one-handed, an issue that may mitigate his penetration when facing tougher defenders and better scouting at the pro level. The same piece praises Wroten for his defense, though, noting that while he is prone to gambling for steals, he usually is effective in using his size, strength, length and instincts to his advantage. He measures 6'5", 204.5 pounds, with a 6'8" wingspan, lending credence to the notion that he's really a combo guard.

Wroten is harder to compare to other players than any other prospect in this year's draft, Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com said this week via Twitter, but both Treutlein and Ford have thrown out the name of Tyreke Evans. Ford says some scouts believe he's the second coming of Gary Payton, but judging from everything else we hear, that seems like quite a stretch. Nate Robinson is Wroten's cousin, and he might be a reasonable match. Though Robinson is eight inches shorter, he's also a combo guard who can get to the hoop and alternates between scintillating and frustrating performances. One major difference is Robinson's outside shot; he's hit 35.4% from three-point land in his NBA career, while Wroten managed to connect on only 16.1% of his attempts from the college three-point line this year.

In Wroten's most pressure-packed moments as a collegian, the 58.3% free-throw shooter missed four straight from the line down the stretch of a two-point loss that knocked his team out of NCAA Tournament contention. While Washington was the Pac-12 regular season champ, the Huskies wound up in the NIT, a serious knock on the competition Wroten faced this year. He has experience with USA Basketball at the junior level, but his bio from those competitions reveals that he missed the entire 2009/10 season with a torn ACL. Certainly, others have fully recovered from that kind of injury, but it's another red flag that makes him such an object of concern for NBA teams.

The best outcome for Wroten might be to get with a well-run organization that can give him the guidance and time necessary to develop and use him as a third guard off the bench instead of a starter. The Celtics, who have back-t0-back picks at No. 21 and No. 22, might be tempted to take the plunge with Wroten with one of those selections if they play it conservatively with the other. Rajon Rondo and, if he re-signs, Ray Allen, could be just the kind of mentors Wroten needs to one day prove all his critics wrong.

Prospect Profile: John Henson

May 5th, 2012 at 11:51am CST by Zachary Links

In 2008, North Carolina celebrated the commitment of 6'11" forward John Henson, an ultra-slender high school junior out of Tampa, Florida. Weighing in at just 185 pounds, Henson was viewed as having sky-high upside potential and was ranked in the tier just below the likes of John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Derrick Favors by most scouting services. While those players would all come off of the board in the top 5 of the 2010 draft, Henson played three seasons at UNC and made major strides in all areas of his game. However, the forward has yet to truly harness all of his potential.

You don't need to watch film of Henson to know that the youngster's primary flaw is his lack of bulk. The big man has put on size since the day that he arrived at Chapel Hill but is still extremely slim at 220 pounds. Henson turned into a dominating presence on defense for the Tarheels over time, thanks in large part to his freakish 7'6" wingspan. However, one has to imagine that he will be easily out-muscled early on in his NBA career by opposing 4s and 5s. One area where he can make an instant impact, however, will be on the perimeter. The combination of length and quickness that Henson possesses is rare and the big man has shown that he can clog passing lanes with ease.

Even though Henson's strengths skew more towards defense, the 21-year-old will have to work to develop his offensive skill set. Henson has become more and more comfortable with the ball in his hands over the course of his collegiate career and averaged 13.7 points per contest off of 50% shooting in his final year. Henson got a great deal of his points off of finesse moves with his back to the basket. While he doesn't have the strength to bully opponents in the 7'0" range at the next level just yet, smaller defenders will struggle to keep him contained in the post. One area where he'll surely shine is in the transition game, where his long arms can lead to turnovers and easy baskets going the other way.

Henson also has the potential to become a truly dominant rebounder in the Association. The forward averaged 10 RPG across his sophomore and junior seasons as he cleaned the glass with his uncanny leaping ability. Henson's dimensions and vertical leap are actually reminiscent of another talented rebounder – JaVale McGee. A key difference between the two, however, is overall character and a strong mental aptitude for the game. Proponents of Henson's potential would argue that, unlike McGee, he has the dedication to become a rebounding force on a nightly basis. With solid workouts prior to the draft, Henson could easily join teammates Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller in the lottery.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Zeller

April 30th, 2012 at 8:01pm CST by Zachary Links

Lottery teams in search of centers know exactly who the top target at the position is in this year's class. If you have the good fortune of landing a pick between No. 2 and 5, the high-risk, high-reward Andre Drummond could be yours. After that, it gets a little bit tricky. Ohio State sophomore Jared Sullinger had some GMs drooling this time last season before he opted to stay in school for another season. The Buckeye has a more advanced post game than your average 20-year-old but at 6'9" is shorter than your average center as well. Teams that are less-than-enamored with Sullinger (or, drafting after he is taken) will take a long, hard look at North Carolina center Tyler Zeller.

The UNC standout improved his stock greatly by turning in a strong senior season in which he was the most reliable option on a star-studded team. Zeller averaged 16.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, and shot 55.3% from the floor as he stuck close to the rim in 2011/12. In fact, he stayed so close to the rim that he hardly got the opportunity to show off his shooting range. In previous seasons, the 22-year-old has shown the ability to bury shots from mid-range and sometimes a step beyond.

While his 55.3% field goal percentage is impressive, the most eye-popping number on his stat sheet just might be his 81% success rate at the charity stripe. Zeller was widely mocked for his aversion to physical play as an underclassman but he has flipped a switch in recent years. Now that he has shown that he won't shy away from contact, you can expect the big man to get plenty of opportunities at the free throw line.

Unlike Sullinger, Zeller can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the Association's big men at 7'0". He's also unlike Sullinger in that he doesn't have the world's most polished offensive skill set with his back to the basket. However, that's not unique to 7-footers coming into the league and it's likely something that Zeller will be able to develop with time. His post game should be accelerated by adding bulk to his 250 pound frame and any team that tabs Zeller will insist that he hits the weight room from day one. Will he get the distinction of being the second center off of the board on June 28th? That'll be largely dictated by where the ping-pong balls land and how the two perform in pre-draft workouts.

Prospect Profile: Terrence Jones

April 29th, 2012 at 10:36pm CST by Alex Lee

Terrence Jones announced his intent to enter the NBA Draft on April 16th. The 6-foot-8 sophomore lefty was the starting small forward for the NCAA champion Kentucky Wildcats. After averaging 15.7 points per game as a freshman as one of the top dogs at UK, Jones' scoring average fell to 12.3 as a sophomore. With all-world freshmen Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague coming aboard, Jones had to share the rock in more of a supporting role.

Although his scoring declined, his shooting percentage jumped from 44 percent to 50 percent and he still averaged 7.2 rebounds per game despite Davis grabbing nearly every board in sight. Loaded with talent, Jones is a very interesting prospect. He is at least 6-foot-8 with an impressive build and huge wingspan. He can shoot and dribble like a guard and can therefore play almost any position on the floor.

At times, Jones looks like a future superstar. His game is well rounded – his skills and natural ability allow him the potential to do almost everything on the basketball court at a high level. He rebounds, passes and shoots well and when he is on, he can score from anywhere. His ball handling is a strength and he is versatile because of it. Jones, like many southpaws, has a smooth look to him on the court.

So the obvious question is why isn't Jones being pegged as a top five pick? Well for one, sometimes what looks like smooth on the court is in actuality a lack of maximum effort. While characterizing Jones as having a "bad attitude" seems a bit harsh, he is susceptible to losing focus and sulking that is easily visible through bad body language. Kentucky head coach John Calipari publicly challenged him in the media on several occasions in an effort to motivate the talented forward.

In terms of tangible basketball weaknesses, Jones still needs to refine his shot. While he shoots well for someone his size, he will need to work on his mechanics to be able to consistently connect from three from NBA distance. This could prove especially important because Jones occasionally tends to fall in love with the three pointer when he should be spending more time inside utilizing his size and strength. Jones has good strength and appears to work hard in the weight room, but sometimes shies away from contact. If this is something he can fix, his game would improve dramatically. Jones also needs to work on finishing with his right hand.

The most obvious comparison for Jones would be Marvin Williams, who was also a physically gifted and versatile wing on a loaded college team. Another interesting comp is fellow lefty Lamar Odom. Both of these guys are loaded with natural ability but never were dominant NBA players for reasons ranging from attitude problems to lack of motivation or competitiveness. Sound familiar? Odom was at his best as a supporting player on a championship Lakers team, much like Jones at Kentucky.

Jones showed focus and was excellent in the NCAA Tournament. His play was integral in Kentucky giving Calipari his first national title. While that will certainly ease some of the concerns of NBA teams, Jones' mental approach to the pre-draft process will likely be just as important. Look for him to land in the late lottery unless a top ten team is overwhelmed by his potential. It's just speculation, but perhaps Houston's two first round picks would make them more willing to take on the enigmatic Jones.

Prospect Profile: Draymond Green

April 29th, 2012 at 7:10pm CST by Alex Lee

Take one look at Draymond Green's numbers and you can't help but wonder why he isn't being talked about as a lock for the first round of the NBA Draft. The Michigan State forward averaged 16.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game as a senior and led the Spartans to a one seed in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Louisville. His game is polished. He can score, pass and rip down rebounds consistently right now.

But Green, generously listed at 6-foot-7, will likely be characterized as a man without a position at the next level. While he has bulk, he is a tweener at his height – too short to play power forward and likely not athletic enough to score on (or guard) NBA small forwards. Along with his height, his lack of explosiveness is a limiting attribute for Green.

What Green has going for him is that he is ready to help an NBA team right now. His development as a basketball player is nearly complete. Despite playing as a power forward type for the Spartans, Green has surprising range and will likely be able to knock down NBA threes. He passes well for his size and position and he was a great college rebounder. Whether that trait translates to the NBA with his height remains to be seen, but he will be no less than above average on the glass.

After four years at Michigan State, he has developed an excellent basketball IQ and is known as a coachable player and an excellent leader. Green is the quintessential type of guy that will be selected by a good team at the end of the first round and will contribute right away – the Spurs seem to have made a living using this strategy for more than a decade now. Green's pull up and post game leave plenty to be desired, but his considerable intangibles should be enough to land him in the late first or early second round.

Unfortunately, the advanced development of Green's game will likely be a detractor from his draft stock for most teams. There isn't much room for growth in his game – he is likely close to a finished product. You can't teach or develop athleticism and Green clearly plays below the rim. His lack of explosiveness and his porous defense renders his ceiling an NBA bench player. Teams in the lottery or that will lose in the first round of the playoffs likely need to make big leaps to compete for a title. Green will not be the type of guy that can do that for them.

But Green can contribute to a team in a similar way to how DeJuan Blair does for the Spurs. While Green and Blair have different games – Green is a shooter/scorer and Blair is a bruiser/rebounder – they are both undersized tweeners. Green should be able to carve out a niche career if he lands in the right situation like Blair did, but if he doesn't he will struggle due to physical and athletic limitations.

Prospect Profile: Andre Drummond

April 28th, 2012 at 3:49pm CST by Chuck Myron

Perhaps no player on the draft board gives teams pause quite as much as Connecticut freshman center Andre Drummond. He has drawn praise for "other-worldly" talent, but has been called the kind of player whose high-risk, high-reward potential gets GMs fired whether they take him or not. His athletic gifts and rebounding prowess make some scouts drool, while his lack of offensive development and inability to lift his team depress his stock. The latest we hear from Chad Ford of ESPN.com has him going somewhere between third and fifth, with some teams ranking him second only to presumptive No. 1 pick Anthony Davis. No. 2 is where Draft Express has him in their mock draft and list of the top 100 prospects, so the media reflects the dichotomy of opinions that teams have.

A heralded prospect coming out of high school, Drummond was supposed to keep defending national champion Connecticut among the elite teams in college basketball. That didn't happen, as the Huskies struggled through the regular season and lost to Iowa State in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Still, Drummond shouldn't bear the full brunt of the blame for his team's failure's, since UConn had to deal with the health problems of coach Jim Calhoun, uncertainty over their eligibility for next year's postseason because of academic shortfalls, and the loss of Kemba Walker, its best player from the year before.

Drummond averaged just 10.0 PPG, struggling in post-up situations, as Jonathan Givony of Draft Express notes, and settling too often for jump shots, in Ford's eyes. He still shot 53.8% from the floor. He averaged just 7.6 RPG, but 3.4 of them came on the offensive glass. The low numbers are partly attributable to playing just 28.4 MPG. That makes his 2.7 blocks every night that much more impressive. He's listed at either 6'10" or 6'11", but his wingspan is 7'5", according to ESPN.com.

Of the teams likely to draft between two and five, according to the Hoops Rumors draft order tracker, the Hornets seem to be the team most in need of frontcourt help, particularly if they fail to sign free agent center Chris Kaman. They might be more willing to wait for Drummond to develop and learn some offensive moves around the basket now that they have an owner in place. Drummond will be only 18 on draft night, and is the second youngest lottery prospect behind Kentucky's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. If the Blazers wind up with the Nets' pick and Drummond's still around when they're drafting, don't be surprised if they take him, since they'll have plenty of free agent money to spend on immediate upgrades elsewhere. The Wizards seem least likely to take a flier on another underdeveloped big man, as they have Nene Hilario and Andray Blatche locked up long-term, and Washington fans are still haunted by JaVale McGee's inability to pick up on the game's nuances.

Patience will be key for whichever GM decides to draft him. The stats indicate he's just a one-way player right now, and that's a tough sell for struggling franchises looking for someone to help them turn it around.

Prospect Profile: Austin Rivers

April 22nd, 2012 at 7:21pm CST by Daniel Seco

After losing to Lehigh in the opening round of the 2012 NCAA tournament, Duke freshman Austin Rivers took some time to consider his future as a college basketball player. While his team's postseason performance had been disappointing, there was no denying Rivers had enjoyed a successful first year in Durham. Rivers put up gaudy numbers against some of the best teams in the country during the regular season as he finished with averages of 15.5 points per game and 3.4 rebounds per game.

The son of Celtics head coach Doc Rivers is a lock to be a mid-first round draft pick and could even sneak into the lottery by some estimates. ESPN.com's Chad Ford ranks Rivers as the 14th overall prospect among this year's talent pool, while DraftExpress.com has him going 16th in their latest mock draft. What will make Rivers, 20 in August, a valuable commodity going forward is his strong shooting ability mixed with a rare confidence that cannot be taught in the NBA.

For Ford, Rivers' strengths include his ball-handling skills, a devastating crossover and a deep-range jump shot that help fuel what Ford describes as a "killer instinct" on the court. During his time at Duke, this intangible could best be seen when the Blue Devils beat the fifth-ranked Tar Heels in Chapel Hill thanks to a three-pointer at the buzzer by Rivers. The victory ended UNC's 31-game home winning streak, which marked a school record.

There are many reasons why Rivers isn't projected to be a top-five pick in the upcoming draft and for Ford, it starts with the fact that he isn't a world-class athlete. Seemingly modeling his game after a much more athletically-gifted Kobe Bryant, Rivers attempts to do things on the court that his 6-foot-4, 203 pound body simply cannot achieve on a consistent basis. While his frame filled out over the course of the season at Duke, Rivers would stand to benefit from adding lean mass to make him more of a physical presence on the court.

Defensively, Ford says Rivers takes too many risks and may have let his attitude affect his effort at times, a sentiment shared by Matt Kamalsky of DraftExpress.com, who describes Rivers' energy level as inconsistent. While some of Rivers' defensive shortcomings may stem from the heavy workload he was given on the offensive side of things, he will have to find a balance between being passive and overaggressive while covering opposing players in the NBA.

It's difficult to gauge how Rivers' career will unfold given his youth and lack of extensive collegiate seasoning. He will be selected anywhere from 10th to 20th in the upcoming draft with teams such as the Cavs, Rockets and Blazers most likely to give him a look. Rivers has expressed his desire to play for his father in Boston, but some critics wonder if that would be an unnecessary recipe for disaster for the Celtics with the team's roster facing a potential overhaul this offseason.

Prospect Profile: Bradley Beal

April 16th, 2012 at 8:17pm CST by Chuck Myron

There aren't a lot of quality young shooting guards in the NBA right now, especially given the injuries Eric Gordon has endured this year. There's also only one shooting guard projected as a surefire lottery pick in this year's draft, so that player, Bradley Beal, could be even more valuable than his ability would otherwise suggest.

Even if he weren't playing at a sought-after position, the freshman from Florida possesses plenty of appealing attributes. His high basketball IQ is something both ESPN.com's Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony of Draft Express agree on. He can play the point as well, and his showing down the stretch for the Gators and his ability to handle traps and double teams have already caught the eye of the Wizards, who are "enamored" with him, writes HoopsWorld's Steve Kyler. Ford points to his rebounding prowess, as he averaged 6.7 RPG this year, and Givony likes the advanced fundamentals and maturity he shows at just 18 years old.

Still, there are question marks involved. Ford writes that the only concern scouts have is his relatively poor shooting this year, when he connected on 44.5% of his field goal attempts, including 34% from three-point territory. Those are disappointing numbers from someone who, according to Ford, evoked comparisons to Ray Allen coming out of high school. While Givony believes he will never shoot so poorly from behind the arc again, he also points to a need for him to finish better on his attacks at the rim, as well as defensive inconsistencies. ESPN has him listed at 6'5", while he checks in at 6'3.5" at Draft Express. NBADraft.net splits the difference and has him at 6'4". Givony expressed concerns about his height, and if he's closer to the shorter side of his measurements, that's a legitimate worry.

Size matters less in a wide-open transition game, and he's been effective playing that style, according to Givony, creating looks for himself and his teammates with smooth ballhandling and an ability to change speeds. He'd fit a team looking for an up-tempo attack, and the Wizards notion holds water here, as they could go with a small lineup of John Wall, Beal, Jordan Crawford, Jan Vesely and Nene Hilario. He'd be a tougher fit with a team like the Raptors, who have a defensive-minded coach in Dwane Casey and DeMar DeRozan occupying the two-guard spot. Still, ESPN's latest mock has him going to Toronto at No. 5. Draft Express has him going fifth as well. Ford believes he could go as high as No. 2, but much of that will depend on how he compares to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, another sought-after wing player.

It all comes down to the right fit with a player like Beal, unlike a must-have top pick like Anthony Davis. If a team needs a versatile guard who can make quick decisions and, at worst, take nothing away from you with his shooting, Beal is the guy. If a team is worried about size and wants to play a halfcourt game, they'll shy away from him.

Prospect Profile: Royce White

April 13th, 2012 at 3:42pm CST by Luke Adams

When Iowa State forward Royce White declared his intent to enter this year's draft, Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports reported that several NBA executives believed the sophomore had worked himself into the first round. White's strong showing in the NCAA tournament included averages of 19 points and 11 rebounds per game against UConn and Kentucky.

There's no question that the 6'8" forward has first-round talent. ESPN.com's Chad Ford ranks White 20th overall among this year's prospects, while DraftExpress.com has him at 25th. White's versatility is his biggest strength — in addition to averaging nearly 10 boards a game at Iowa State and potentially having the size to play power forward (he's listed between 240 and 270 lbs), the 21-year-old also has the ability to bring the ball up the floor, occasionally acting as a point forward.

While Ford praises White's LeBron James-esque ability to handle the ball, shoot the three, post up, and rebound, he notes that White lacks LeBron's athletic ability. DraftExpress' scouting report also suggests that the Cyclone appears to be a little overweight, though it hasn't seemed to hamper his mobility so far.

His on-court ability would likely make White a mid-to-late first-round pick, but NBA teams will have a couple complications to consider when it comes to White's whole package. For one, White was forced to sit out his freshman year at Minnesota due to legal troubles, raising red flags about his off-court behavior.

More compellingly, White suffers from an anxiety disorder that includes a fear of flying, as Scott Howard-Cooper chronicled in a piece for NBA.com this week. Although White says his panic attacks are less frequent these days, one such attack resulted in him deciding to transfer to Iowa State rather than Kentucky, since the thought of flying to Lexington caused him to call off his decision to become a Wildcat.

While White may not have the lottery appeal that other high-risk, high-reward players like Andre Drummond or Perry Jones III do, he could certainly turn out to be a tremendous value this June. If concerns about his mental status outweigh the appeals of his physical talent, White could slip out of the first round and into the second.

"I think some teams will be discouraged by it," one NBA GM told Howard-Cooper, referring to White's anxiety disorder. "It's kind of one of those things that's almost like a guy that's had a bunch of off-court issues. Does the talent level trump the other issues you're going to have to deal with? I think Royce is a great player, but I'm not sure that the talent level is going to trump some of the other issues. I think some teams will take a pass in that range. I can see him in the second round at the end of the day."

Players have certainly had their NBA careers derailed by less significant issues than White's anxiety disorder, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the 21-year-old find a way to work through his fear of flying and everything else to become a legit NBA contributor.

White is a good bet to be drafted by either a playoff team or a non-playoff team making its second pick, which should reduce the pressure he'll face when he enters the Association. If everything goes right, I can see the Iowa State product developing into a Boris Diaw-like player who can be slotted in at a number of different positions and will fill up a stat sheet with more than just points and rebounds.

Prospect Profile: Perry Jones III

April 9th, 2012 at 4:31pm CST by Michael Pina

When it comes to selecting players in the NBA draft, potential and production have long battled one another in the minds of each team's top decision makers. Is selecting an undeveloped talent with incredible "raw" ability worth more than taking a serviceable "sure thing" who holds a limited ceiling?

Earlier today, Baylor sophomore Perry Jones III announced his plan to leave school and enter the NBA draft. He's the most interesting pawn this argument's had in years; a case can be made that no player in recent memory does a better job of matching otherworldly skill with overwhelming frustration. In his two years at Baylor, Jones has been college basketball's great model of inconsistency. Before the season began, the 6'11" Jones was pegged as a sure-fire top five pick, with some scouts even pegging him in as a possible number one overall selection. But after another up and down season that saw him disappear time and time again in the biggest of moments, the prodigious 20-year-old has dropped down to the middle of the first round on several boards.

In an insider article, ESPN.com's Chad Ford says a possible reason for Jones' unpredictable play was Baylor head coach Scott Drew's decision to play him out of position. With the mentality of a guard who likes the ball in his hands on the perimeter, it's crucial for whatever team that selects Jones to place him in situations where he's comfortable. One site has compared him to Anthony Randolph, which isn't glowing praise. But on the other end, Jones has the physical skill set to dominate on both ends of the court. Think Lamar Odom or LaMarcus Aldridge.

From a statistical standpoint, Jones' numbers didn't improve from his freshman to sophomore season. He averaged 13.5 PPG this year but his points and free-throw attempts went slightly down while his rebounds (7.6 RPG) stayed the same. There was no more aggression in his second year than there was in his first, no enhancement in attitude or change in style.

Jones has unbelievable talent, but which team selects him could be a larger factor in determining what type of career he has than his ability to exercise that once in a generation type of skill. His upside is scary but so is his basement.

Perry Jones III is the 2012 draft's most delicate flower, and right now the sun isn't shining in Charlotte, Toronto, Washington D.C., or any other cities that are most likely to scoop him in a move of pure desperation.

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