Prospect Profile

Prospect Profile: Fab Melo

April 8th, 2012 at 10:57pm CST by Alex Lee

Before announcing that he would be entering the NBA Draft, the last we heard from Syracuse center Fab Melo was when he was being deemed ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. The Orangemen still made a decent run without him before falling to Ohio State in the Elite 8.

Melo makes for an interesting prospect study. His draft stock and his game would probably have benefited if he decided to return to Syracuse for his junior year. But he did enjoy a breakout season as a sophomore that resulted in him being named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Further clouding things are ineligibility questions and the fact that he is from Brazil, potentially making his thought process a bit different from your average college player.

It isn't hard to figure out Melo's primary asset. At 7-foot and 250 pounds, Melo has legitimate NBA center size. His 7-foot-3 wingspan enables him to alter shots effectively – he averaged 2.9 blocks-per-game in his sophomore season. Melo was a big recruit coming into Syracuse and was expected to contribute right away. Unfortunately, he struggled to assimilate to the college game and lacked conditioning.

Melo worked to right the latter of those issues heading into his sophomore year and it showed. He was more in shape and it helped his leaping and quickness on the defensive end both blocking shots and rebounding. Syracuse employs their famous zone defense so projecting how Melo fits in an NBA system will be crucial to teams considering him. Melo pulled down 5.8 rebounds-per-game this season, mostly through size alone. He doesn't yet have the instincts to be a volume rebounder, but again, it's hard to evaluate how he will transition from the zone. Instincts and "feel for the game" are things he has to continue to improve, but he made great strides between his freshman and sophomore seasons.

What will prevent Melo from getting anywhere near the lottery is his complete lack of an offensive game. This is clearly the last piece of his development as a player. He averaged 7.8 points as a sophomore and shot over 56 percent from the field, but most of points came on dunks and put backs from offensive boards. While his size enabled him to get by offensively at the college level, Melo has no semblance of a jumpshot and inconsistent evidence of a post game.

It's not all bad on offense for Melo though. He has shown good hands, solid footwork and a nice touch around the rim. These things suggest that there is at least some hope that through hard work, he can develop into enough of a threat on offense that it will justify him getting on the court.

Overall Melo projects as a late first round pick. He is never going to be a great offensive player, but he has the tools to impact games on the defensive end. As the saying goes, you can't teach size and Melo has it. There will always be a place for guys who can protect the rim in the NBA. Whoever takes him will be taking on a project that will require patience. As we saw in the similar case of Hasheem Thabeet, that is easier said than done.

Prospect Profile: Harrison Barnes

April 8th, 2012 at 6:30pm CST by Alex Lee

Rare is it anymore that you see a guy who is projected as a top-10 draft pick decide to return to school. But that was the case after last season for North Carolina's Harrison Barnes. Barnes was a mega recruit out of high school and was going as high as number one in a lot of mock drafts throughout his freshman year.

The 6-foot-8 Barnes deserves credit for realizing his game needed further development. It is possible that he looked at the career of fellow Tar Heel Marvin Williams as reason to go back. Williams, while a steady contributor for the Atlanta Hawks, has yet to fulfill the expectations that come with being the second overall pick in the 2005 NBA Draft. But now Barnes, after averaging 17.1 points-per-game as a sophomore, has declared himself eligible for this year's draft.

Barnes is still projected as a top-10 pick with the potential to crack the top five. He is 6-foot-8 and, depending where you look, is listed at around 220 pounds. His strengths are his length and his ability to score. He can fill it up from just about anywhere and has good range. His height and length enable him to get off his shot with ease. His midrange game, now a strength, has improved a lot while at North Carolina. Barnes is smooth and fundamentally sound on the court and just has the look of a basketball player.

He is capable of being a terrific defender. He is solid athletically and has a 7-foot wingspan, which more than makes up for a lack of quickness on defense. Most importantly, he has a very high basketball IQ and is generally known as a smart kid. It isn't surprising that Barnes was self-aware enough to recognize his game needed more pre-NBA polish after his freshman season.

Barnes toes the line of being "too nice." For someone as offensively gifted as he is, he disapears too often and defers to teammates. While that is easy to do in a star-filled program like North Carolina, at some point he needs to show the killer instinct that is needed to dominate at the NBA level. Originally a big man in high school, Barnes has not always played on the wing and some aspects of his game, like ball handling and passing, are still developing.

Because of this there is a fear out there that Barnes may end up being one dimensional (scoring only) on offense. While it's not a huge knock on his draft stock, it may be enough to keep him out of the top five. Also, Barnes is undoubtably thin for 6-foot-8, but his frame looks like it can support some extra size.

Overall, Barnes is a stellar prospect. He is already a very good scorer and most see him as a potential lock-down defender. But he also has considerable room to improve, which can be seen as a good thing for lottery teams willing to be patient. If Barnes fails to develop a more well-rounded game, his best case scenario is probably Danny Granger. However, he will have to be a little more aggressive on offense to reach that ceiling. There is certainly no shame in "only" becoming an All-Star like Granger, but Barnes could be more is everything comes together.

Prospect Profile: Thomas Robinson

April 8th, 2012 at 12:42pm CST by Daniel Seco

There will always be focus on the tragedy Thomas Robinson endured thrice times in the winter of 2011. Faced to deal with the deaths of his grandfather, grandmother and mother in just under a month's time, Robinson, once a reserve forward for the Kansas Jayhawks, has let his play do the talking for him when the right words simply could not be uttered. The evolution of Robinson from role player into a sure-fire top 5 pick in the upcoming draft speaks volumes of the young man's resiliency.

Robinson hit the gym and court hard during the summer of 2011. Showing up to workout even before Kansas head coach Bill Self arrived at his office many mornings, Robinson's work ethic told the story of a man with a reignited fervor to recreate himself as a basketball player in every facet of the term. The stakes were higher now and anything besides pure unadulterated dedication to what had once been merely a pastime for Robinson meant more than just letting himself down.

A look at the numbers from Robinson's first two seasons at Kansas does little to help predict the success he came to enjoy as a junior. As a freshman, Robinson saw limited minutes due to the raw nature of his play along with the plethora of talent on the Jayhawks roster. A year later and Robinson's minutes increased as well as his production, which solidified a future where he was assured he would able to earn a paycheck for his basketball ability.

Fast forward the clock to November 11, 2011 and Robinson is about to embark on a journey in which he will rewrite the script for his basketball life and shock a nation with a dominant style of play that belies his limitations exhibited during the previous two seasons. Towson's basketball team became the first to bear witness to what a man can achieve in the face of tragedy when redirecting pain and heartache for the greater good of self. In merely 25 minutes of play, Robinson scored 18 points, grabbed 11 boards and had four assists to set the tone for a season that would go down in the annals of Jayhawk lore.

Robinson's tour-de-force campaign across college campuses saw a Kansas team go from a top-13 team in the country to the national title game by the season's end. The forward from Washington D.C. didn't merely make a name for himself feasting on the likes of the game's lesser programs, but rather showed up when the spotlight was greatest. Having developed a workman-like mentality toward the game rather than merely something to pass the time, Robinson's performances in victories against top teams like Ohio State, Baylor and Missouri could only be described as nothing short of dominant.

Scour the box scores and you'll come to find stat lines riddled with double-doubles. Try 30 points and 21 rebounds in a resounding victory over North Dakota or 20 points and 17 rebounds in a rout of Oklahoma. It would be foolish to gauge Robinson as a player sans tragedy but there is no doubt that in the face of so much heartbreak came so much joy.

As a runner-up for the Wooden Award for the nation's most outstanding player and a member of a Jayhawks squad that danced all the way to basketball's final evening, Robinson's name will be called early in late June at the Prudential Center. The 6-foot-10 forward boasts a lean body sculpted with Lebron-like muscle mixed with an energetic style of play that allows him to thrive on both ends of the court. Blessed with the rare combination of outstanding size (a 7-foot-1 wingspan) without sacrificing speed, Robinson's rebounding ability should seamlessly translate to success on the next level where he projects to be a top-5 pick by most top draft experts.

Merely 21 years of age, Robinson should be defined as more than just a basketball player. He's a brother, a role model and an inspiration. Truly a rare breed, Thomas Robinson has channeled the pain and suffering of personal loss on the deepest of levels to become the best version of himself, both as a basketball player and even more so as a human being.

Prospect Profile: Jared Sullinger

April 7th, 2012 at 4:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

The story of Ohio State sophomore Jared Sullinger is one of the most intriguing as the draft approaches. He could have gone No. 1 overall if he had come out after his freshman season. The latest mock drafts have him going much farther down the line: Draft Express has him going sixth, ESPN's Chad Ford projects him as the 13th pick (Insider link), and NBADraft.net predicts he'll fall out of the lottery completely, landing at No. 15. His fate is one many players will surely cite when they decide to come out earlier than perhaps they should. You may have plenty to gain by staying in school, but there's a lot to lose, too. Last year's No. 1 pick, Kyrie Irving, signed a four-year deal that will give him between $3MM and $4MM more each season than No. 15 pick Kawhi Leonard gets.

What's caused him to slip in the eyes of NBA teams is his lack of athleticism and explosion around the rim. Still, that's been a criticism all along, as witnessed by Josh Cochran's NBADraft.net scouting report from 2009. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express cites his 6'9", 280-pound frame as a problem — he's too small to be a prototypical center, and not agile enough to cover the league's increasingly athletic power forwards. Tommy Dee of Sheridan Hoops cites his difficulty defending taller players as a weakness, yet, as Givony points out, it didn't stop Ohio State from being an elite defensive team in college basketball this year. While it's difficult to draw conclusions about a player's worth based on his team's success in college, the fact that the Buckeyes went to two Sweet 16s and a Final Four during Sullinger's time can't be a knock on him.

Givony points to his polished post game, lack of turnovers and passing ability as some of his positives, and Dee calls him "the most complete post player in the nation." Efficiency is one of his hallmarks, and he makes opposing teams pay at the foul line, knocking down 76.8% of his free throws this year, a plus for a big man. When it's not working down low offensively, he can go outside, too. He took 1.1 three pointers a game and nailed 42.1% of them. He has a midrange game, too, as Dee praises his ability to knock down looks from 15 to 18 feet.

Givony compares him to Kevin Love, and while that's not the kind of analogy being bandied about too often now as Sullinger's stock takes a nose dive, I think it still holds. It would be a challenge for Sullinger, or anyone else, to put up the kind of numbers Love does, but Love's ability to maximize his basketball skills while minimizing his lack of overpowering athleticism provides a blueprint for Sullinger to follow. Love, who was the 5th pick in 2008, would probably be drafted higher if teams had a chance to do it over again, and unless teams brighten their outlook on Sullinger between now and June, the same could be said for him in a few years.

Prospect Profile: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

April 1st, 2012 at 2:55pm CST by Michael Pina

Last night, in the biggest game of his life, Kentucky forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was held scoreless for the first 30 minutes. But after Louisville's Peyton Siva tied the game on a three-pointer midway through the second half, the freshman sensation scored two quick baskets that put the Wildcats up for good. He finished the game with nine points, all coming in late, crucial moments.

Kidd-Gilchrist is one of the NCAA's best players. He spent his first season contributing in almost every aspect to a team some believe might be the best college basketball has ever seen. With averages of 11.9 PPG (on just 8.2 shots per game) and 7.5 RPG, while delivering elite defense every minute he's out there, Kidd-Gilchrist has been a consistent force of ferocity.

One possible negative to take away from his only collegiate season has been the slightly alarming fact that as his minutes have gone up, Kidd-Gilchrist's FG% and PPG have gone down, according to StatSheet.com. Also, he's only surpassed the 20-point scoring mark two times.

But looking at these arguments from another angle, the fact that Kentucky's roster is filled with future NBA players may be a reason for the "tempered" scoring numbers. Also, his FG% and scoring didn't exactly fall off a cliff.

Most draft analysts predict the 6'7" forward will be a top three pick in the upcoming draft, and his ability to impact the game both ways makes him one of the surest high value selections to come along in a while. His game is high energy, attacking in transition, and finishing at the basket with incredible efficiency.

If there are any current NBA players who Kidd-Gilchrist could end up emulating, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, and Gerald Wallace would be the biggest names. He's a hard worker who should only improve as his career progresses. His versatile style would make him a perfect fit on almost any team likely to receive a high draft pick, but if he's picked by Washington and paired with John Wall, the situation could be extremely beneficial for everyone involved.

Ultimately, his success could be decided on whether he can defend the perimeter like those three All-Stars, knock down wide open shots, and create occassional offense on his own. There's no doubting the future for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a bright one.

Prospect Profile: Anthony Davis

March 30th, 2012 at 10:09pm CST by Alex Lee

What better player to kick off our "Prospect Profile" series than the 2012 NBA Draft's consensus number one overall pick? As we noted earlier today, Anthony Davis was named AP Player of the Year. While the Kentucky big man has not yet officially declared for the draft, it's hard to imagine his draft stock getting any higher. Davis leads the Wildcats into the Final Four tomorrow against Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals.

Labeling Davis as "long" is almost misleading. Seemingly every draft prospect with size gets that label these days. Davis defines long. He is 6-foot-10, but he has a 7-foot-6 wingspan. Davis just turned 19, and in only his freshman year at Kentucky, has averaged 4.6 blocks-per-game. That is not a typo. In addition to his length, Davis is incredibly athletic and agile for someone his height. He can cover ground quickly and once he gets there, he is a quick (and excellent) leaper who has showed good shot-blocking instincts. For the same reasons, Davis excels as a rebounder as well. Defensively, he is a game-changing talent.

There is plenty to get excited about with Davis on the offensive end too. His athleticism and length makes him an ideal target for entry passes or alley oops and most importantly, he is very coordinated. Davis was a 6-foot-3 guard at age 16, and the early development of those skills is evident. Davis has a good looking shot and can hit from three. His handle and passing are light years ahead of what you would expect from someone who averages nearly 5 blocks-per-game. He is truly a unique talent.

Davis has drawn comparisons to Marcus Camby, which is understable given his propensity for blocking shots. But as Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer notes, some people, including Davis, can see him developing into a shot blocking version of Kevin Durant. Are you starting to understand why there is little debate as to who will go number one overall? Here is what Davis said regarding the Durant comparisons:

"He plays how I play – go in the post, shoot the ball, dribble. I love the way he plays: Not afraid of anything and takes on all challenges. That’s the mark of a great player.”

Former NBAer and Kentucky star Jamal Mashburn, who has gotten a close look at Davis calling Wildcats' games on the radio, had the following to say:

“The way he shoots, the way he passes – he throws alley-oops. You don’t teach that. The NBA game has really changed. You only have one dominant center (Dwight Howard). You see more of the Kevin Garnetts and Dirk Nowitzkis dominate the game. A guy like Anthony Davis fits that mold.”

So what exactly are Davis' weaknesses? There aren't many. If he truly wants to be more than just an interior presence in the NBA as the Durant comparisons suggest, he will obviously have to continue to develop his perimeter game and jumper. His post game could use some polish as well, as his overwhelming athleticism masks some of his deficiencies in the college game. Without those two things, it will be tough for him to be a go-to type scorer at the next level. But with his dominance on defense, that would hardly stop him from being an elite player.

The knock on Davis is his size. He is listed at 220 pounds and at 6-foot-10, that is rail thin. He will have to bulk up to bang with NBA big men but his frame seems big enough to do so. The question is, if he does so, will he be less able to play on the perimeter? Finding that balance between ideal size and style of play is the big question for Davis heading towards June's draft. And it may be the only one.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/30/3140108/future-bobcat-kentuckys-davis.html#storylink=cpy