Prospect Profile Rumors | Hoops Rumors

Prospect Profile: Deyonta Davis (Part One)

April 18th, 2016 at 7:39pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jasen Vinlove / USA Today Sports Images

OVERVIEW: Deyonta Davis did not post big numbers as a freshman at Michigan State. That failed to deter the 6’10” power forward from entering the draft after his lone college season. Davis, who was ranked No. 28 by the Recruiting Services Consensus Index out of high school, became a starter during the Big Ten portion of the Spartans’ schedule. He made his mark on the defensive end, averaging 1.9 blocks in 18.7 minutes while also finishing as the team’s third-leading rebounder at 5.5 per game. He wasn’t a big part of the offense, scoring at a 7.4-point clip, but the 19-year-old oozes potential because of his length and athleticism. Davis did not immediately declare for the draft but ultimately bolted when he was convinced he could be a lottery selection.

STRENGTHS: Davis can impact the game with his physical gifts. Davis displayed defensive versatility with his ability to switch on screens and keep a wide range of opponents in front of him, as DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony notes. His ability to protect the rim with his 7’2” wingspan and snare rebounds in traffic helped the Spartans enter the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed, despite Michigan State’s overall lack of physicality. ESPN Insider Chad Ford credits Davis for his shooting range out to 17 feet, though the Spartans didn’t run plays for him, and he got most of his points on put-backs and dunks. He shot 59.7% from the field because he didn’t try to do too much or take questionable shots. He’s also considered a hard worker and high-character player who blends well with his teammates.

WEAKNESSES: Most draft experts felt Davis should have stayed in school another year to develop his game. As Ford described in his draft analysis, Davis is a “pure upside play” because he’s so raw offensively. While he displayed a nice shooting touch on his short and midrange jumpers, Davis is by no means a stretch four. He did not even attempt a 3-pointer, so he’ll need to work extensively on his post moves to become a significant offensive threat. Like most young frontcourt players, Davis also has to become much stronger. He could get overpowered in one-in-one matchups early in his career until he fills out and gets accustomed to the banging. His college coach, Hall of Famer Tom Izzo, wished he had another season to work with Davis. “Would a second year have helped him? No question,” he said in a radio interview with WQTX-FM that was quoted by the Lansing State Journal’s Chris Solari. “We didn’t think we might have him for more than two years when it all started. So it wasn’t like we were thinking of this as a four-year deal, either. “

(For Part Two of our Deyonta Davis Prospect Profile, click here.)

Prospect Profile: Buddy Hield (Part Two)

April 11th, 2016 at 9:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

PROJECTED DRAFT RANGE: Hield made a steady climb on the major draft boards, thanks to his brilliant senior campaign. He’s now No. 5 overall and the top shooting guard prospect on ESPN Insider Chad Ford’s Big Board, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress pegs him at No. 7. He’s firmly ahead of the other college seniors on their draft boards. NBA.com’s David Aldridge also ranks Hield No. 1 among shooting guards. Hield could go as high as No. 4, according to Ford, who doubts that Hield will slip past the No. 7 slot.

RISE/FALL: Freshman phenoms Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are expected to be the top two picks in the draft and it’s difficult to see that changing. As a well-established player with a proven track record, Hield could conceivably inch his way up to No. 3. International teenage power forward Dragan Bender is ranked third by both Ford and Givony but he posted modest stats in Israel and will have to prove himself in predraft evaluations and workouts. Hield could also benefit from the teams in the third or fourth spot having a major need for a shooter. On the flip side, Hield’s defensive shortcomings, relative lack of size for his position and penchant for turnovers could make him slide a few notches. Most NBA analysts agree that Hield is not a superstar talent and that’s what most teams at the top half of the lottery are seeking.

FIT: Quality shooters like Hield can enjoy long careers in the current NBA landscape. The increased emphasis on 3-point shooting makes him a prized commodity. Virtually every team with a projected Top 10 lottery pick could use a player like Hield to stretch the defense. The Sixers need outside shooting to complement their stash of young big men. The Lakers, should they wind up with the No. 3 pick, desperately need a shooter to pair up in the backcourt with D’Angelo Russell. The Kings have been seeking a quality shooting guard for years. The Celtics, Timberwolves and Nuggets all rank in the bottom 10 in 3-point percentage. The Bucks could give themselves a formidable 1-2 wing punch with Khris Middleton and Hield. The Pelicans have all kinds of question marks at the guard spots, considering their injury and free agent situations.

FINAL TAKE: Hield could have been drafted in the first round last season but his decision to go back to school will pay off handsomely. He’s a surefire Top 10 selection and should be an immediate rotation player for the team that drafts him. According to Ford, Hield is comparable to the Trail Blazers’ C.J. McCollum, who developed into a 20-point scorer in his third NBA season. Hield is not a transcendent talent but he can be a starter on a championship-caliber team.

(For Part 1 of Buddy Hield’s Prospect Profile, click here.)

Prospect Profile: Buddy Hield (Part One)

April 11th, 2016 at 8:24pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Robert Deutsch / USA Today Sports Images

OVERVIEW: Buddy Hield demonstrated the benefits of staying in school and working on his game over a four-year period. The 6’4” shooting guard emerged as one of the Big 12’s best players as a sophomore and could have made the jump to the pros in each of the past two years. He chose to return to school both times and finished his college career with a marvelous senior campaign, leading Oklahoma to the Final Four. He averaged 25.0 points, second only to Howard’s James Daniel. Hield reached the 30-point mark a dozen times, including a 46-point explosion against Kansas that catapulted him into the national spotlight. He also had a 36-point outing against VCU and a 37-point outburst against No. 1 seed Oregon during the NCAAs and split up awards for the nation’s top player with Michigan State senior Denzel Valentine.

STRENGTHS: Hield improved from an above-average shooter during his first three college seasons to a nearly unstoppable force in his senior year. His overall field-goal percentage jumped from 41.6% to a whopping 49.6%, a stunning leap for a player who faced a variety of defensive strategies designed to shut him down. His 3-point percentage spiked upward in similar fashion, from 37.1% to 46.4%, and he averaged four makes per game. He’s adept at coming off screens or spotting up and makes defenses pay for any space given to him. He also has the body to succeed at the next level — long, athletic and yet powerful for his size. Not surprisingly, he’s an outstanding free-throw shooter and also rebounds well for his position, pulling down 5.6 boards per game as a senior. Topping off the checklist is his high character. As one talent evaluator told NBA.com’s David Aldridge, he’s an “elite shooter, elite human being.”

WEAKNESSES: For all of his offensive gifts, Hield does not shine at the defensive end. As Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress details in his evaluation of Hield, the NBA leans toward bigger wings who can guard multiple positions. Hield’s size limits his ability to switch defensively and he’s not adept at creating for others offensively. Hield’s passing metrics ranked third-worst among the 45 college guards or wings in Givony’s top 100 rankings. That’s part of the reason why Hield averaged 3.0 turnovers as a senior, a subpar figure for a shooting guard. He has improved as an off-the-dribble shooter, as Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress notes, but he still needs to attack more often and become a better finisher at the rim, according to ESPN Insider Chad Ford. These shortcomings are why Aldridge, through the talent evaluators he spoke with, believes that Hield is more of a complementary piece than a superstar talent that can turn around a franchise.

(For Part Two of our Buddy Hield Draft Analysis, click here.)

Prospect Profile: Kris Dunn (Part Two)

March 28th, 2016 at 8:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

PROJECTED DRAFT RANGE: Kris Dunn is firmly in the top 10 in the major rankings and could even be one of the first five names called on draft night. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress currently pegs Dunn at No. 5, a notch ahead of the other highly rated point guard in the draft, Kentucky freshman Jamal Murray. ESPN.com’s Chad Ford isn’t quite as optimistic, ranking Dunn at No. 7, three slots below Murray on his Big Board.

RISE/FALL: Dunn was so productive in his last two college seasons, and that coupled with the fact that quality floor leaders are such valuable commodities makes it tough to see him dropping out of the top 10. He brings size, athleticism, wingspan, court vision and quickness to the table and his weaknesses are things he can work on with professional coaching. His 8-for-10 performance from beyond the arc during this year’s NCAA Tournament alleviated some concerns about his jumper, though front office executives and scouts will keep close tabs on how he looks from the NBA 3-point line. He’ll need to show a greater willingness to play through contact and finish his drives. He’ll also have to display an improved handle and do a better job of protecting the ball when tested by other point guards in predraft workouts.

FIT: Several lottery teams could be in the market for a point guard. Start with the Sixers, who need help everywhere and were disappointed when the Lakers took D’Angelo Russell ahead of them during last June’s draft. The Kings will need one if free agent Rajon Rondo bolts. A Dunn-Devin Booker backcourt pairing could be a juicy prospect for the Suns, while the Timberwolves could deal Ricky Rubio if they feel Dunn is a better long-term answer. The Bucks like what they’ve seen with their Giannis Antetokounmpo experiment at the point but they could go with a more conventional look and have Dunn share ballhandling responsibilities with the 6’11” Antetokounmpo. It’s also fair to wonder if the Magic have soured on Elfrid Payton, given that coach Scott Skiles has used Brandon Jennings as a starter in recent games. There are plenty of other teams who may covet Dunn — the Knicks, Nets and Rockets would love to upgrade that spot — but they would have to find a way to get into that area of the lottery to make it happen.

FINAL TAKE: Dunn has been a special player in college and his talents should translate very well to the pros. As a 22-year-old, he’ll be more mature than most point guard prodigies (Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, Payton, etc.) in recent drafts and consequently more prepared to take over the most demanding position on the floor. Dunn made progress by staying in school an extra season, as he told Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com when he declared for the draft. “I felt like I improved my outside shot, even though it still needs work, cut down on my turnovers and became a better leader,” he said. Expect Dunn to start immediately for the team that drafts him.

(For Part One of Kris Dunn’s prospect profile, click here.)

Prospect Profile: Kris Dunn (Part One)

March 28th, 2016 at 7:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Geoff Burke / USA Today Sports Images

OVERVIEW: Kris Dunn put Providence back on the national map over the past two seasons by emerging as one of the nation’s top point guards. His college career got off to a slow start, as he endured two shoulder surgeries in a span of 18 months. Once he was finally healthy during his redshirt sophomore season, he quickly established himself as a premier floor leader. He averaged 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and a 7.5 assists in his breakout year and followed that up with a 16.4/5.3/6.2 slash line in his junior year. The 6’4” Dunn finished his college career with a 29-point outburst against North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

STRENGTHS: In a league that increasingly values quickness and ability to get to the rim, Dunn seems like a prototypical point guard. He should be an outstanding pick-and-roll initiator with his ability to blow past defenders as well as hit outside shots and create opportunities for himself and others. He should have a size and strength advantage over many of his peers that will make him difficult to guard in one-on-one matchups. As Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress points out, he has the ability to operate at different speeds, making him dangerous in half-court sets as well as in transition. He doesn’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but he makes an acceptable percentage, hitting at a 37.2% clip. Dunn can also be a major factor defensively. He has excellent length with a 6’8” wingspan and uses it to his advantage. The two-time Big East Player of the Year led the conference in steals each of the past two seasons. His quickness allows him to stay in front of his man, while his size gives him the ability to seamlessly switch defensive assignments between point and shooting guards.

WEAKNESSES: The two biggest knocks on Dunn, according to ESPN Insider Chad Ford, are his tendency to take questionable shots and his turnover rate. Dunn’s field-goal percentage fell from 47.4% as a sophomore to 44.8% this season, despite his improvement from long range. Givony notes that Dunn shows average touch around the rim when forced to finish over length and tends to avoid contact at all costs, perhaps because of his prior shoulder problems. That could become an even bigger issue at the NBA level, where he’ll encounter better closeouts and shot blockers. Dunn can also get careless with the ball. He improved somewhat over the past year, bringing his turnovers down from a whopping 4.2 per game to 3.5. That’s still a high number, as only three NBA point guards are currently averaging more than 3.5 per game and that same trio — Rajon Rondo, John Wall and Russell Westbrook — are also the only players averaging double-digit assists. As Givony describes it, Dunn can make some eye-catching moves with the ball, but he can also get very sloppy with his handle.

(For Part Two of Kris Dunn’s prospect profile, click here.)

Prospect Profile: Denzel Valentine

March 7th, 2016 at 10:25pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Mike Carter / USA Today Sports Images

OVERVIEW: Denzel Valentine has steadily built his legacy — and his draft profile — during his four seasons at Michigan State. The versatile swingman — listed at 6’5” by ESPN.com and 6’6” by DraftExpress — was a valuable role player for the Spartans during his first two seasons, then exploded onto the national landscape during last year’s NCAA Tournament as a junior. He led the Spartans to an unlikely run to the Final Four, then upped the ante this winter with a spectacular senior season. He’s on pace to become the first player since assists became an official NCAA stat in 1983/84 to average at least 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. His development is reminiscent of two recent Big Ten stars, former Spartan Draymond Green and Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky.

STRENGTHS: The attribute that becomes readily apparent when watching Valentine play is his uncanny knack to make the right read and find the open man. That makes him an outstanding initiator on pick-and-rolls, an extremely valuable skill in the NBA game. Valentine became the Spartans’ de facto point guard early in his senior season and he’s thrived in that role, with his assist average jumping from 4.3 last season to 7.5, while his turnovers have barely increased (2.6 to 2.4) despite having the ball in his hands so often. His creativity off the dribble opens up high-percentage shots for teammates as the defense collapses around him. His shooting stroke is also an asset. Valentine has a very compact stroke, as Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress points out, with deep range and multiple release points. He’s adept at shooting off screens, with his feet set, or off the dribble, Givony adds. Currently, he’s shooting 47.1% from the field while averaging 14.5 shots per game and an outstanding 45.4% on 3-point attempts. Valentine also does a superior job of getting into position for rebounds, averaging at least 6.0 per game in his last three college seasons.

WEAKNESSES: Valentine does not have a defined position as he heads to the next level. ESPN lists him as an undersized small forward. His size and outside shooting ability would suggest he’ll be a shooting guard in the pros, while his passing prowess and floor leadership could make him an oversized point guard. The biggest knock on Valentine, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com examines, is his lack of elite athleticism. Valentine’s defensive intensity has improved throughout his college days, but he could have issues covering players with better foot speed because of his lack of lateral quickness. If his NBA coach utilizes him as a point forward, he’ll be mismatched at the other end and vulnerable to postups by bigger, stronger players. Another concern, as Givony notes, is that Valentine may have trouble finishing in the lane because of his lack of explosiveness. He often relies on his body to create space in halfcourt situations and tends to shoot difficult floaters when the lane closes up and he doesn’t have an outlet.

PROJECTED DRAFT RANGE: Valentine has some work to do during postseason evaluations to become a lottery pick. He’s currently ranked No. 22 on Chad Ford’s latest ESPN.com Big Board, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress pegs him at No. 18, so he’s projected as a mid-to-low first-rounder. ESPN lists him as the No. 4 small forward — though it’s a stretch to say he’ll play that position in the NBA — and No. 4 among players that DraftExpress lists primarily as shooting guards.

RISE/FALL: Valentine’s all-around game and maturity could help his draft status. He should be able to step into a team’s rotation, if not a starting role, in his first season. Scouts and front-office personnel will also be impressed by Valentine’s ability to raise his level of play against tough competition. He was the Spartans’ best player during their Final Four run last season, and early this season he lit up Kansas, the nation’s top-ranked team entering conference tournament play, with 29 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists. Valentine is arguably the best and most polished passer in the draft, ahead of even the point guard prospects, and he has a well-above average jump shot to complement his distribution skills. The biggest thing he’ll have to prove is that he won’t be a major defensive liability. His instincts and basketball IQ can help him overcome that to an extent, but he’ll have to show he won’t consistently get beaten off the dribble. His below-average athleticism will keep him out of the Top 10, but it’s quite conceivable he’ll end up as a late lottery selection.

FIT: There are plenty of teams that could use another offensive facilitator and shooter at the wing spots. He’d be a nice fit for the Heat, as a backup or even eventual replacement for Dwyane Wade. The Hawks could certainly use a boost in that area, and he would seem to be an ideal fit for the Knicks’ triangle with his ability to read, react and shoot. He’d also be a nice offensive fit for half-court reliant Western Conference clubs like the Mavericks, Grizzlies and Jazz.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State coach Tom Izzo doesn’t hide his affection for Valentine. As he recently told the assembled media, including Hoops Rumors, “I don’t know many guys that have improved in every aspect of the game like he has. He’s the closest thing to a player/coach that you could have.” I suspect Valentine’s NBA coaches will have similar feelings about him. He may not be a star in the NBA, but he should emerge as a rock solid starter who will have a better career than several of the players picked ahead of him.

Prospect Profile: Denzel Valentine (Part 2)

March 7th, 2016 at 11:39am CST by Dana Gauruder

PROJECTED DRAFT RANGE: Michigan State senior swingman Denzel Valentine has some work to do during postseason evaluations to become a lottery pick. He’s currently ranked No. 22 on Chad Ford’s latest ESPN.com Big Board, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress pegs him at No. 18, so he’s projected as a mid-to-low first-rounder. ESPN lists him as the No. 4 small forward — though it’s a stretch to say he’ll play that position in the NBA — and No. 4 among players that DraftExpress lists primarily as shooting guards.

RISE/FALL: Valentine’s all-around game and maturity could help his draft status. He should be able to step into a team’s rotation, if not a starting role, in his first season. Scouts and front-office personnel will also be impressed by Valentine’s ability to raise his level of play against tough competition. He was the Spartans’ best player during their Final Four run last season, and early this season he lit up Kansas, the nation’s top-ranked team entering conference tournament play, with 29 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists. Valentine is arguably the best and most polished passer in the draft, ahead of even the point guard prospects, and he has a well-above average jump shot to complement his distribution skills. The biggest thing he’ll have to prove is that he won’t be a major defensive liability. His instincts and basketball IQ can help him overcome that to an extent, but he’ll have to show he won’t consistently get beaten off the dribble. His below-average athleticism will keep him out of the Top 10, but it’s quite conceivable he’ll end up as a late lottery selection.

FIT: There are plenty of teams that could use another offensive facilitator and shooter at the wing spots. He’d be a nice fit for the Heat, as a backup or even eventual replacement for Dwyane Wade. The Hawks could certainly use a boost in that area, and he would seem to be an ideal fit for the Knicks’ triangle with his ability to read, react and shoot. He’d also be a nice offensive fit for half-court reliant Western Conference clubs like the Mavericks, Grizzlies and Jazz.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State coach Tom Izzo doesn’t hide his affection for Valentine. As he recently told the assembled media, including Hoops Rumors, “I don’t know many guys that have improved in every aspect of the game like he has. He’s the closest thing to a player/coach that you could have.” I suspect Valentine’s NBA coaches will have similar feelings about him. He may not be a star in the NBA, but he should emerge as a rock solid starter who will have a better career than several of the players picked ahead of him.

(For Part 1 of our Denzel Valentine Draft Analysis, click here.)

Prospect Profile: Denzel Valentine (Part 1)

March 7th, 2016 at 10:40am CST by Dana Gauruder

Mike Carter / USA Today Sports Images

OVERVIEW: Denzel Valentine has steadily built his legacy — and his draft profile — during his four seasons at Michigan State. The versatile swingman — listed at 6’5” by ESPN.com and 6’6” by DraftExpress — was a valuable role player for the Spartans during his first two seasons, then exploded onto the national landscape during last year’s NCAA Tournament as a junior. He led the Spartans to an unlikely run to the Final Four, then upped the ante this winter with a spectacular senior season. He’s on pace to become the first player since assists became an official NCAA stat in 1983/84 to average at least 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. His development is reminiscent of two recent Big Ten stars, former Spartan Draymond Green and Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky.

STRENGTHS: The attribute that becomes readily apparent when watching Valentine play is his uncanny knack to make the right read and find the open man. That makes him an outstanding initiator on pick-and-rolls, an extremely valuable skill in the NBA game. Valentine became the Spartans’ de facto point guard early in his senior season and he’s thrived in that role, with his assist average jumping from 4.3 last season to 7.5, while his turnovers have barely increased (2.6 to 2.4) despite having the ball in his hands so often. His creativity off the dribble opens up high-percentage shots for teammates as the defense collapses around him. His shooting stroke is also an asset. Valentine has a very compact stroke, as Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress points out, with deep range and multiple release points. He’s adept at shooting off screens, with his feet set, or off the dribble, Givony adds. Currently, he’s shooting 47.1% from the field while averaging 14.5 shots per game and an outstanding 45.4% on 3-point attempts. Valentine also does a superior job of getting into position for rebounds, averaging at least 6.0 per game in his last three college seasons.

WEAKNESSES: Valentine does not have a defined position as he heads to the next level. ESPN lists him as an undersized small forward. His size and outside shooting ability would suggest he’ll be a shooting guard in the pros, while his passing prowess and floor leadership could make him an oversized point guard. The biggest knock on Valentine, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com examines, is his lack of elite athleticism. Valentine’s defensive intensity has improved throughout his college days, but he could have issues covering players with better foot speed because of his lack of lateral quickness. If his NBA coach utilizes him as a point forward, he’ll be mismatched at the other end and vulnerable to postups by bigger, stronger players. Another concern, as Givony notes, is that Valentine may have trouble finishing in the lane because of his lack of explosiveness. He often relies on his body to create space in halfcourt situations and tends to shoot difficult floaters when the lane closes up and he doesn’t have an outlet.

(For Part 2 of our Denzel Valentine Prospect Profile, click here.)

Atlantic Notes: Sixers, Winslow, Knicks

June 20th, 2015 at 9:42pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Sixers own the No. 3 selection in Thursday’s draft and Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor are expected to be off the board by the time Philly picks. Tom Moore of Calkins Media speculates what the team will do should either big man fall to them. If the draft goes as expected, the Sixers will most likely choose between D’Angelo Russell, Kristaps Porzingis and Emmanuel Mudiay, who I opined should be the selection in the franchise’s Offseason Outlook. Moore notes that the team could easily trade down in the draft or make some other unexpected move, citing GM Sam Hinkie‘s unconventional approach in the past.

Here’s more from the Atlantic Division

The Sixers have worked out Justise Winslow, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. The forward should be an impact defender for a team right away, as Eddie Scarito of Hoops Rumors explains in his Prospect Profile of the forward.
Tim Bontemps of the New York Post examines the journey that Winslow has taken through high school and college to become a surefire lottery selection. Winslow is reportedly the “leader in the clubhouse” to be taken by the Knicks with their No. 4 overall pick. Scarito has Winslow going to New York in his latest Mock Draft.
The Knicks worked out Frank Kaminsky and Joshua Smith in addition to working out Trey Lyles and Kevon Looney yesterday, according to Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv (Twitter link).

Prospect Profile: Stanley Johnson

June 12th, 2015 at 7:50pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Stanley Johnson arrived at Arizona coming off four straight high school state championships and was regarded by many scouts as the best wing prospect in the nation. While the freshman didn’t quite live up to the hype, he had a solid 2014/15 campaign, and led the Wildcats in scoring last season. But a lackluster NCAA tournament and some holes in his game have dampened NBA scouts’ projections for Johnson a bit. Instead of a potential superstar, the 19-year-old is now being looked at as more of a solid rotation player.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The forward’s draft stock has fluctuated over the course of the season. He was projected as a possible top five pick earlier in the year, but is now more likely to hear his name called on draft night toward the end of the lottery. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks Johnson as the No. 8 player available, while Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) slots him at No. 11.

“I want to love him,” one NBA GM told Fran Fraschilla of ESPN.com. “My scouts all loved him in high school. I’ve watched him live four times and every time come away with the same thought: ‘He’s pretty good.’ But pretty good isn’t going to make you a great NBA player. He’s a good athlete, a good shooter, a good defender, a good motor. He has a great body but doesn’t always use any of those skills to his advantage. If he were the athlete that [Justise] Winslow was, I’d love him. But he isn’t, and I just feel he’ll be pretty good. If those are your expectations, great. If they’re higher, I think you’re going to be disappointed.”

With the draft full of talented wings, Johnson’s skillset, while solid, doesn’t rise above the rest of the field in any particular area. He’s not as explosive as Winslow, not as good an outside shooter as Mario Hezonja, doesn’t have the upside of Kelly Oubre, nor is Johnson as stellar a defender as his teammate and fellow draft prospect, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Johnson is the highest player on the draft board to hit the “safe” category, according to Ford’s profile of the player. “He’s not as good as we thought he’d be coming into things,” one GM told the ESPN scribe. “But he’s not as bad as I think we’ve made him out to be either.” He’ll work hard and if he improves, he’ll be a very good value pick.”

The odd thing about Johnson’s game, especially when discussing him as a potential lottery pick, is how middle-of-the-road he ranks in relation to other small forwards in this year’s draft. According to ESPN.com’s Kevin Pelton, in terms of the core projected statistics he looks at to measure skills, the only one where Johnson is in either the top or bottom 25% among NBA-bound small forwards is his steal rate of 1.5 per contest, or 2.1 per 40 minutes. The rest of his statistics are solid, but not mind-blowing, with Johnson logging 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per contest.

Johnson was not considered a great shooter upon entering college, only making 82 of 279 of his 3-point attempts (29%) in high school and AAU events, notes Givony. But he managed to impress NBA scouts with his ability to make shots as a freshman, hitting 41 of his 111 3-point attempts on the season (37%), and showing a much quicker release and more compact mechanics than he had displayed earlier in his career, both shooting off the dribble (he converted 49% of his pull-ups in the half-court) and with his feet set (44% when catching and shooting), notes the DraftExpress scribe. The freshman was solid from the charity stripe, connecting on 74.9% of his free throw attempts.

While Johnson’s improvement from the outside was a boon this season, he doesn’t necessarily project as a 3-and-D player in the NBA. This is where some teams could be scared off from selecting the forward. With his rock solid frame and overall athleticism, Johnson should have been an absolute beast in the paint area while at Arizona. But he was an abysmal finisher in the lane, connecting on only 50% of his attempts around the rim. That is not a great success rate no matter what level of hoops you are playing at, and will be a major source of concern for Johnson when he steps onto the NBA hardwood.

This is not to say that Johnson is an albatross to his team on the offensive end. He has shown that he can create his own shot effectively with his combination of quickness, size and power, Givony notes. Johnson is also a solid ball-handler who can be quite a load to handle in transition, and he is effective in the pick-and-roll, though his failure to connect on shots when beating his man to the rim limits his usage in this capacity.

Johnson’s biggest appeal as a prospect is his potential on the defensive end. He has tremendous physical tools, including great size for his position, a strong frame, solid length, and excellent anticipation skills, adds Givony. The 19-year-old can legitimately defend three positions with his combination of size, speed, and strength, though his intensity wasn’t a constant, and his coaches at Arizona expressed some level of frustration with Johnson’s tendency to take plays off, or letting a poor offensive possession haunt him on the other end of the court. Johnson is also an effective rebounder, notching 9.1 per 40 minutes despite playing out of position at shooting guard for much of his freshman campaign.

The forward’s NBA potential is still a bit murky. Pelton projects Johnson’s ceiling to be that of Luol Deng or Thaddeus Young, with the more pessimistic view being Marvin Williams. The team that selects Johnson this June will be getting a solid player with potential to be in the league for a long time. But the 19-year-old doesn’t appear ticketed for stardom, which will likely drop him out of the top 10 selections. This slight drop could actually be a boon to Johnson’s long-term development, since he isn’t a player who can or will change the face of a franchise. There is significantly less pressure involved, as well as more patience shown, with players taken toward the middle of the first round. Johnson should evolve into a solid rotation piece by his second season, though his rookie campaign will likely entail heavy D-League time.