Prospect Profile

Prospect Profile: Emmanuel Mudiay

June 5th, 2015 at 7:00pm CST by Eddie Scarito

19-year-old Emmanuel Mudiay enters the 2015 NBA draft as a mystery man to many around the NBA. Possessing a résumé that only encompasses 12 contests worth of non-high school scouting data, and owning a wealth of physical potential and skills, Mudiay is perhaps the biggest risk versus reward player in this year’s draft. While he is almost assuredly going to be a top five pick come June, his selection certainly comes with some risk attached to it. Mudiay is currently ranked as the No. 4 overall prospect in this year’s draft by both Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mudiay eschewed an opportunity to play college ball for coach Larry Brown at Southern Methodist University during the 2014/15 campaign, and instead signed a one-year, $1.2MM agreement with Guangdong of the Chinese Basketball Association. It remains to be seen if the non-traditional path Mudiay has taken will pay off for him in the long run, and if the lack of competing against NCAA players this past season will hurt his short-term development.

An ankle injury that Mudiay suffered back in November cut his season short, depriving him of some needed growth opportunities on the court. But as a testament to his talent and ability, Mudiay did return to the hardwood during the playoffs, and despite not competing in any games for over three months, the 19-year-old scored 17 points in the first half and finished with a total of 24 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and two steals in his first game back in action. It is that kind of difference-maker ability that has numerous NBA teams intrigued by Mudiay’s potential as a player.

His numbers overseas were solid in an admittedly miniscule sample size, averaging 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.6 steals in 31.5 minutes per contest. Mudiay’s shooting percentages were .478/.342/.574. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton projects those numbers to translate to 11.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes in the NBA, which compare favorably to Celtics rookie Marcus Smart, who averaged 10.5 points, 4.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes this past season.

Mudiay’s decision to skip the draft combine didn’t sit well with many NBA scouts since that venue would have been the first opportunity for many around the league to see him perform live, Ford writes. His absence at that showcase has impacted his draft stock a bit, with more than one GM asking how they could be expected to rank Mudiay higher than Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell, when Russell has done more to prove himself worthy of being a top three pick, the ESPN scribe relays. The young guard is not without his supporters, and a number of scouts have him ranked as the second best player in the draft behind Karl-Anthony Towns. One such scout told Ford, “Mudiay was regarded by everyone as a much better prospect than Russell this time last year. Russell went to Ohio State, was put into a lead role on a high-profile team, and wowed us. He’s improved and we all saw it. But I suspect Mudiay improved too and we just didn’t see it. We’re judging Russell now versus Mudiay one year ago. This is such a huge developmental time for everyone; I suspect he’s gotten better. When teams in the top five see him in workouts, their decision will get much harder.”

The 19-year-old is a combo guard, and there will be a learning curve involved if the team drafting him wants to utilize Mudiay as a full-time point guard. He certainly has the ability to be a dominant playmaker, but it will take some time for his basketball IQ to catch up with his ample physical tools. Mudiay, like many young ball-handlers, has a tendency to over-dribble, as well as force the issue when a simple pass would make all the difference. He’s not a selfish player who will frustrate his teammates by being a ball-stopper though, and his effectiveness at the point will increase along with his knowledge of the game. Mudiay will need to cut down on his turnovers, which have been a persistent issue for him in high school, AAU ball, as well as during his time spent overseas.

Mudiay’s outside game is still a work in progress. His mechanics are sound, which bodes well for future improvement, though his shot selection will need some adjustment. Mudiay also needs to quicken his release, and he often appeared uncomfortable when defenders closed in on him while he was getting his shot off. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the court, but Mudiay is most effective in transition. With his size and athleticism, Mudiay is virtually unstoppable when he takes it to the rack with a full head of steam. He is a devastating finisher at the rim, and will likely become a highlight reel regular with his dunking ability. Mudiay doesn’t get to the foul line as often as he should, which is perhaps a good thing, seeing as he only drained 57.4% of his shots from the charity stripe. That will require immediate improvement or Mudiay will spend quite a bit of time on the bench during the waning minutes of close contests.

The young guard is able to defend both backcourt positions, which will increase his value, as well as keep him on the court during tougher defensive assignments, since his coach can employ more switches on defense. Mudiay is not a good pick and roll defender yet, but that is more a result of his inexperience than it is a reflection on his overall ability. His rebounding skills also stand out, and he’ll be a player who will post a few triple doubles in his career as a result.

Mudiay is certainly a special talent, though how well he will adapt to the NBA game still remains to be seen. His lack of experience will certainly be a factor, though his time spent playing abroad will provide him with a level of maturity that many young players lack when they first step onto the court in the pros. A number of NBA scouts have compared Mudiay’s game and upside to that of Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and John Wall, while some scouts who were less enamored with him used Tyreke Evans as a template for what teams can expect from Mudiay. If he can come close to the production of any of those named players, then Mudiay will certainly be worth nabbing in the draft lottery. He’ll likely be the second guard off the board behind Russell, and should hear commissioner Adam Silver intone his name sometime during the first five picks on draft night.

Prospect Profile: Jerian Grant

May 31st, 2015 at 11:52am CST by ChrisCrouse

The franchise that selects Jerian Grant will likely be seeking immediate dividends from its draft pick. The Notre Dame guard is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in this year’s draft class. He is a high-level athlete with explosiveness and playmaking ability. His assist totals improved every year in college, rising to 6.6 assists per game during his senior year, which was the seventh best mark in the nation. The point guard took good care of the ball last season as well, averaging only 2.1 turnovers per game.

Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images

Scoring has never been much of an issue for Grant. He led his team in scoring during the 2012/13 and 2014/15 seasons. Grant played extremely well to begin the 2013/14 campaign, but after only 12 games, he was suspended for the remainder of the season because of academic issues. The suspension might have been a red flag for NBA teams, but I suspect the fact that he stayed in school and earned his degree will quiet those concerns.

The 22-year-old doesn’t appear to have the ceiling that some of the other prospects in his class possess, which is the downside of selecting Grant. He can also be a bit ball-dominant, which is something teams are shying away from. Still, valuing potential or scheme fit over production has left many coaches and front office executives unemployed. Grant has produced during his time in South Bend and he has shown he has skills that will translate immediately to the NBA.

He should be able to join a team and carve out a role similar to Dennis Schröder’s in Atlanta. Schroder came into the league known as a playmaker, but he needed the ball to do so. The German native has done a good job of fitting in and leading the Hawks’ second team, although he does revert to his old style of play at times, as his 27.0 usage rate this past season indicates. Schröder was a solid first-round pick, one of the many moves that GM Danny Ferry made that allowed Atlanta to win 60 games this season. Drafting Grant can be, at worst, the kind of selection that allows a team to fill out its rotation with another quality NBA player. He has the potential to be much more than that, but the team that drafts him shouldn’t expect too much too soon.

Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks Grant as the 17th best prospect, while Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks him as the 21st. Grant and his agent, Raymond Brothers of IAM Sports and Entertainment, believe he could be drafted higher than that, as Grant recently told Zach Links of Hoops Rumors.

“My agent and I have been hearing anywhere from No. 8 to No. 20, anywhere around that range. They don’t see me going past No. 22 and they say the ceiling is around No. 8 or 9. It’s a wide range right now,” Grant said.

The Pistons own the eighth pick in the draft and the team is expected to re-sign Reggie Jackson to be its starting point guard. Detroit also employs Brandon Jennings, but he was rumored to be available early in the season, before he tore his Achilles and before the Pistons traded for Jackson. Grant will work out for the Hornets, who own the ninth pick in the draft. Charlotte will have a void on its bench unit if Mo Williams leaves in free agency, but if Lance Stephenson remains on the team, it might make sense to give him a sixth-man role as the de facto second team point guard. That’s a dicey proposition given Stephenson’s production last season, but he is owed $9MM next year and it might be the best way for the team to get value out of that contract. Using Stephenson in this role and drafting Grant with the ninth overall pick would allow Charlotte to ease the 22-year-old into the NBA, while providing insurance of sorts in case of a Stephenson debacle.

The Heat own the No. 10 selection and if they believe Dwyane Wade wasn’t bluffing when he reportedly indicated that he is willing to leave Miami, they may be interested in drafting his replacement. You can see the similarities between point guard’s play at Notre Dame and Wade’s at Marquette, although Grant wasn’t nearly the force on the defensive end that Wade was. Assuming the team re-signs Goran Dragic, which seems likely, Grant could come off the bench next season and join Dragic in the starting lineup the following year if Wade departs. If Wade re-signs with Miami, which I believe is a more likely outcome, Grant could still see a heavy role as he plays out his rookie contract. Wade has only played in 71.34% of Miami’s regular season games since the 2011/12 season and only roughly 33.17 minutes during those games. The 33-year-old is reportedly looking for a three-year, $45MM deal after his current one expires. If the Heat have Grant, who would make slightly more than $11.6MM over the four years if selected with the 10th pick, on the roster, they could use him as their spot starter when Wade misses games and it could help the team cope with paying a hefty salary to an aging veteran. The team could just as easily go in a different direction with its draft choice given all the resources it already used on its backcourt.

Grant previously worked out for the Pacers, who own the No. 11 pick. If Roy Hibbert and David West both opt in, Indiana won’t have many resources available to add help to its roster, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors explains in the team’s Offseason Outlook. Grabbing a player who could help right away with its first-round selection may be something the team looks into, although that is merely my speculation.

Eddie Scarito of Hoops Rumors has Grant going to the Mavs with the No. 21 selection in his latest Mock Draft. Dallas, as well as Chicago at No. 22, would be ecstatic to get a contributor at that juncture of the draft. Grant also worked out for the Suns and the Wizards, who own the No. 13 and No. 19 picks, respectively. The Sixers interviewed Grant about playing in Philadelphia alongside his younger brother, Jerami, whom the team drafted in the second round last year. The Notre Dame alum seemed delighted about the possibility of playing in the City of Brotherly Love, as he told Links.

“It’d be great,” Grant said of playing with his brother. “We got to play together a bit when we were younger. Both of our games have developed so much, so I think that we can be a dynamic duo together.”

The Sixers do not possess a first-round pick in the range where Grant is expected to go off the board. The team does have five second-round picks this year as well as an abundance of additional future selections, so a move into the middle of the first round could be in play.

NBA scouts have nearly five seasons worth of games to evaluate Grant, and because of the large sample size, it’s clear he is one of the safest picks in this year’s draft. Whichever franchise selects him will be getting a playmaker who can contribute immediately and help improve the team.

Prospect Profile: Trey Lyles

May 30th, 2015 at 8:03pm CST by Arthur Hill

It’s not easy to stand out when you’re surrounded by All-Americans, but Trey Lyles made a serious impression during his lone season at Kentucky. The 6’10” forward caught the attention of NBA scouts while helping the Wildcats compile a 38-1 record. Although he averaged just 23 minutes in coach John Calipari’s platoon system, Lyles scored 8.7 points and collected 5.2 rebounds per game and displayed skills that should transfer well to the NBA.

Photo courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images.

Lyles was on the NBA’s radar before he arrived at Kentucky. He was highly recruited out of Arsenal Tech High School in Indianapolis, where he was named Indiana’s “Mr. Basketball” in 2014. Born in Saskatoon, Canada, he has represented both Canada and the United States in international competition and was Canada’s second-leading scorer in the the 2013 FIBA Under-19 World Championship.

Lyles is ranked as the 19th-best prospect by Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress and 12th by ESPN’s Chad Ford. At the NBA’s recent draft combine, he measured 6’9″ without shoes and has a 7’1.5″ wingspan. He projects as a power forward in the NBA, but at 241 pounds, he has the bulk to play center in a small-ball lineup.

Givony spoke highly of the Kentucky player’s talents, writing, “Lyles has a very nice skill level for a player his size.” He also compliments Lyles’ footwork and soft shooting touch, along with his back-to-the-basket moves, although he didn’t get to display that part of his game much at Kentucky.

Lyles also developed an effective perimeter game, Givony notes, with the ability to attack defenders off the dribble in either direction, along with “crafty spin-moves with strong body control and choppy footwork.” He foresees that working to even greater advantage for Lyles when he goes back to his natural positions in the NBA and is driving the ball against opposing power forwards and centers.

Although he didn’t get to show his talents during games as much as other potential draftees, Lyles claims he benefited from being around so many other great players at Kentucky. Lyles told Keith Langlois of Pistons.com that the talent level resulted in highly competitive practices every day.

“It was great,” Lyles said at the combine. “You’re on a team with nine McDonald’s All-Americans, guys who have to share with one another and transition into the NBA. I think it helped all of us out.”

It also forced Lyles to make some adjustments to his game. Playing alongside probable top pick Karl-Anthony Towns and likely top-10 selection Willie Cauley-Stein, Lyles was often out of position at small forward. The experience challenged him to develop his perimeter game, both as a shooter and ball handler. Lyles never did find his three-point shot, connecting on just 4 of 29 attempts from behind the arc for the season. However, he displayed a soft touch from everywhere else, shooting 46% from the field and 74% from the line. He was especially tough to stop once he reached the paint, hitting 50% of his post-up attempts and finishing on 59.5% of his shots around the rim.

“I’ve been working on mid-range stuff since I was young,” Lyles said at the combine, according to Langlois. “My dad always taught me that mid-range is where the game’s going to be played at, where you’re going to make your money. So it’s something I’ve always had in my game.”

Lyles grew up as a coach’s son, and his father, Tom, tells Jerry Tipton of the Lexington Herald-Leader that he constructed “brutal” workouts for his son from the time he was in elementary school.

“At a very early age, he was doing a man’s workout,” Tom Lyles said.

That usually meant three sessions a day — before school, after school and after dinner. The drills were designed to improve the younger Lyles’ shooting, dribbling and conditioning — and to build a work ethic.

All that time in the gym helped Lyles develop an NBA-style game at a young age. In addition to his mid-range shooting, Lyles gets high marks from scouts for his ability to thrive in the pick-and-roll offense and to pass or create shots for himself in transition, according to Andy Erk of SB Nation. His size should also help him develop as an effective low-post defender once he reaches the pros. His perimeter defense was a concern in college, but much of that could be attributed to playing out of position. Scouts are also worried about his lack of explosiveness and lateral quickness, as Erk notes.

Despite playing at one of the highest-profile college programs in the nation, Lyles enters the draft as a bit of a mystery. Teams may think they know how he will develop in the NBA, but playing out of position at Kentucky and being on the court for barely half the game could cloud their judgment. Lyles might be a worthwhile gamble for a lottery team, or he could be the type of player who takes a year or two to adjust to the NBA.

2015 Prospect Profile Series

May 30th, 2015 at 5:25pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The hype surrounding this year’s draft class didn’t quite equal the attention 2014’s received, but there are still plenty of young players for teams and fans to get excited about. While there are a number of players at the top of the draft rankings who have superstar potential, the remainder of this year’s crop offers some intriguing possibilities. Hoops Rumors will be tracking all of the breaking developments, and one of the ways we’ll cover the potentially franchise-altering event will be to take a closer look at many of the prospects in line to hear their names called on June 25th.

Our list of Prospect Profiles will be updated in the weeks ahead as we build a comprehensive inventory of reports for your perusal. This post can be found anytime under “Hoops Rumors Features” on the right sidebar. The players we’ve profiled so far can be found below, sorted by their rankings on the DraftExpress list of the top 100 prospects for 2015.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky (F/C)
Jahlil Okafor, Duke (C)
D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State (PG/SG)
Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong (PG/SG)
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky (C)
Justise Winslow, Duke (F)
Stanley Johnson, Arizona (F)
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin (F/C)
Myles Turner, Texas (C)
Devin Booker, Kentucky (G)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona (SF)
Tyus Jones, Duke (PG)
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame (PG)
Sam Dekker, Wisconsin (F)
Kelly Oubre, Kansas (SF)
Trey Lyles, Kentucky (F)

Prospect Profile: Jahlil Okafor

May 29th, 2015 at 5:00pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Jahlil Okafor arrived in Durham with a huge set of expectations placed on his broad, young shoulders. He was the projected 2015 No. 1 overall pick by many experts prior to his first jump ball at Duke, and the 19-year-old certainly didn’t disappoint in his lone collegiate season. Okafor departs campus as a national champion, but not necessarily the top ranked player in this year’s crop of draftees.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Okafor averaged 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.4 blocks in 30.1 minutes per contest across 38 games. His shooting numbers were .664/.000/.510. He earned Freshman of the Year honors from the U.S. Basketball Writers Association and was a consensus first team All-American. Okafor led the ACC in PER (30.7), field goal percentage (.664), offensive rebounds (134), field goals made (279), and total points (657).

Despite all of his collegiate success, Okafor lost his grip on being the consensus top rated prospect as the season wore on. This wasn’t because Okafor failed to deliver on his promise or was viewed as any less of a franchise-type player at the next level. It was simply a result of Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns exceeding his preseason projections and rocketing up the prospect rankings. Towns is regarded as the better athlete and defender, and NBA personnel believe he has a higher upside than Okafor, which in turn explains the slight dip in the Duke big man’s positioning in many mock drafts.

Measuring a stout 6’11, 270 pounds, possessing a 7’5″ wingspan, and a 9’2.5″ standing reach, Okafor is a prototypical center who should be able to step into the NBA paint area and immediately make his presence felt during his rookie campaign. He also moves very well for his size and has excellent hands for a big man. Okafor should develop into an absolute monster after spending some time working on his strength and conditioning with NBA trainers and coaches. The 19-year-old is easily the most polished big man in this year’s crop of draft hopefuls.

The freshman did the bulk of his damage this season with his back to the basket, which is certainly becoming a rare skill in today’s game, where more and more big men try and make their living from the perimeter. Okafor has the size needed to establish deep post position and the strength to move players around inside the paint once he catches the ball, showing an incredibly rare combination of power, quickness and finesse, writes Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.

Okafor didn’t get many opportunities to work while facing the basket at Duke. This was more a factor of how college defenses operate in regard to spacing than the center not being able to operate off of the dribble or sink a mid-range jump shot. In fact, for his size, Okafor is an exceptional ball-handler who can get to the rack with aplomb, thanks to his superior footwork and ability to create something out of nothing. He is also devastating in the pick-and-roll as well as in transition. While he may not be quite as fast as Towns, Okafor certainly won’t be slowing down his teammates on the break anytime soon.

The big man is adept as utilizing shot-fakes and drew a foul on over 18% of his post-possessions, according to Synergy Sports Technology, Givony notes. However, Okafor didn’t maximize these opportunities, only sinking 51% of his shots from the charity stripe. Unless the “hack-a-Shaq” trend in the NBA is reduced through a rule change, a move the league has considered, Okafor may find himself riding the pine during the fourth quarters of close contests if his success rate doesn’t improve.

In addition to his scoring ability, Okafor is an excellent ball distributor and possesses an outstanding basketball IQ. He is adept at passing his way out of double-teams and has a knack for finding open teammates on the perimeter. Okafor is also a very effective offensive rebounder, pulling down 3.5 per game. Unfortunately, his board work isn’t as solid on the defensive end, where he averaged 6.5 per 40 minutes, one of the worst rates among the big men in this year’s draft, Givony writes. While I certainly expect Okafor to improve in this area once he gets to the NBA, it is an area of concern nevertheless.

While Okafor’s offensive skills draw raves, it is on the defensive end where the chinks in his armor begin to show. To put it bluntly, Okafor is not a good defender, and he will be taken advantage of on a nightly basis during his rookie season, and possibly beyond, if he doesn’t dedicate some serious practice time toward improving. Okafor does have the skill and frame to become a solid defender in the post, but he far too often appeared disinterested and nonchalant this year when his team wasn’t trying to score.

Okafor is adequate in one-on-one situations in the paint as a defender. It is when he is forced to rotate on pick-and-rolls, and when he is required to step out of the paint, that his flaws are truly exposed. This is going to be an issue in the pros, where teams will scheme to draw Okafor out of his comfort zone and force him to switch on defense. He won’t be able to stay in front of wing players, which will in turn leave his teammates exposed as opponents attack the rim.

Despite his defensive shortcomings, Okafor is as close to a sure thing as any team will find in this year’s NBA Draft. Both DraftExpress and ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) rank the big man as the No. 2 overall prospect behind Towns. While there is certainly a chance that Minnesota will snag him with the No. 1 overall pick this June, the more likely scenario has him ending up with the Lakers at No. 2. Whichever order he and Towns are selected, there is no doubt that the two will be compared to each other for the length of their respective careers. Okafor may be the more NBA-ready of the two bigs right now, but he’ll need to become a better defender and rebounder if he wishes to be on the more favorable end of any debates regarding who should have been selected with the top pick in the 2015 draft.

Draft Notes: Rozier, Looney, Timberwolves

May 25th, 2015 at 8:59am CST by Chuck Myron

The NBA draft is just one month from tonight. The lottery and the combine are finished, so team workouts will be the main focus from now until draft night. Now that we know where every team will pick, we debuted our mock draft this weekend, and we’re continuing with our Prospect Profile series. Here’s more on the draft as the event starts to get close:

Louisville point guard Terry Rozier has made a habit of overcoming the odds, and he didn’t disappoint in his workout with the Jazz this weekend, according to Utah vice president of player personnel Walt Perrin, as Carter Williams of the Deseret News examines. The Jazz were one of 17 teams scheduled to audition Rozier, Williams writes, a group that apparently includes the Rockets and Spurs.
Kevon Looney added the Nets, Wizards, Jazz, Suns, Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, Hawks and Knicks to the list of the teams he interviewed with at the draft combine earlier this month, as the UCLA power forward revealed to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. Looney is a raw prospect, but even though he feels he could have improved if he’d stayed in college, he tells Medina that he’s confident he can also develop at the NBA level.
Connecticut point guard Ryan Boatright, LSU power forward Jordan Mickey, Texas combo forward Jonathan Holmes and Louisville swingman Wayne Blackshear are among the players tentatively scheduled to work out Friday for the Timberwolves, reports Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities (Twitter link).

Prospect Profile: Frank Kaminsky

May 24th, 2015 at 10:36pm CST by Will Joseph

In an era when many of basketball’s top prospects are “one-and-done,” Frank Kaminsky stands out. He was only a three-star recruit coming out of Benet Academy in Illinois and despite playing a limited role in his first two years with Wisconsin, he metamorphosed into one of the nation’s top players. Through his first two seasons as a Badger, he averaged less than nine minutes per game. Kaminsky has often said he was a bit immature in his early years in college, and often operated without a clear vision, as Ben Hamilton of SI.com outlined in a piece earlier this year. Once he figured it out, the guy known as Frank the Tank emerged as one of college basketball’s most unlikely stars. With more playing time, the 7-footer’s game improved and later evolved.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Kaminsky took a big step forward in his junior season. He averaged 13.9 points per game and grabbed 6.3 rebounds per game. He also led the Badgers to the NCAA Final Four to cap his breakout. Kaminsky entertained the idea of entering last season’s draft, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) relays, but the big man admits that he wasn’t quite ready for the NBA at that point. “I knew I needed to get better. I wanted to go back to school, finish my degree and do more research by watching NBA basketball so I could see what I needed to get better at,” Kaminsky said. “It was like a free year to study for your final exam.“

It turned out to be a great decision to wait another year. He entered his senior season as the 2015 preseason Big Ten Player of the Year and preseason AP All-American. He somehow managed to surpass expectations with an unworldly campaign. In other words, Kaminsky did everything for Wisconsin this past season — and then was rewarded for it. He led the Badgers in points per game (18.8), rebounds per game (8.2), assists (103), blocks (57), field goal percentage (55%), 3-point field goal percentage (.416), free throws (156) and free throw attempts (200). He was the only NCAA Division I player to average at least 17 points, eight rebounds, two assists and 1.5 blocks per game. He propelled Wisconsin to its first national championship game since 1941. For his efforts, he was named National Player of the Year by The Associated Press and captured a handful of other honors.

There’s a strong possibility that the next reward for Kaminsky is at least a top-15 selection in the draft. One NBA GM told The Journal Times’ Gery Woelfel that Kaminsky could go as high as sixth in the draft. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks Kaminsky No. 10, but he is the No. 14 overall player according to Ford (Insider subscription required).

Kaminsky has superb size with a frame that has filled out well over time and would improve more with added weight. Kaminsky will never be confused with an explosive athlete, but he is a very coordinated big man who runs the floor well. What makes Kaminsky a unique prospect, according to Givony in his profile of the player, is his versatility and offensive efficiency. Simply put, he’s a matchup problem for many because of his size and how good he is at shooting. While he played mostly center in college, Kaminsky sees himself as a stretch four in the NBA, Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders writes. “[I’m] turning myself into a four,” Kaminsky told Pincus. “In college, I played the five for so long. I know I can play the four. I just have to pick up the nuances. The NBA values big guys that can stretch the floor.”

Kaminsky added that he is confident he can transition successfully to power forward. “I played against four in college, because that’s who was guarding me. I know what I’m able to do,” he said. “The college game is obviously different than the NBA game. It also makes it easier that the shot clock is 11 seconds shorter. There’s not as much running around.”

Kaminsky has interviewed with the Pistons and met with the Bucks last week. He met with the Magic and Knicks, respectively, the week prior. A “sure thing” is impossible to find in any draft, and Kaminsky is no different. While he’s a very polished and mature player, because of his age (22) there is some belief he has already maximized his potential. Kaminsky, however, has said that he is looking forward to continuing to grow as a player with any team that selects him. There are no shortage of teams that seem like good fits for him, either. Miami, which owns the 10th pick, is looking for immediate help and Kaminsky’s maturity would present an intriguing addition. If he’s still on the board at No. 12, it would be logical for the Jazz to scoop him up because of their need for someone who can stretch the floor. The best fit, however, is likely the Suns, who will pick 13th. The Suns do not have a quality big man and their options are limited beyond Alex Len.

Prospect Profile: Willie Cauley-Stein

May 18th, 2015 at 7:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Willie Cauley-Stein brings some clarity to a process normally based upon on projections and expectations, at least on one end of the basketball court. There’s no dispute or concern about Cauley-Stein’s ability to be a defensive impact player in the NBA. He’s got all the tools and physical gifts to become one of the league’s premier defenders. That’s why the 7-footer is ranked as the No. 2 center in the draft behind Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and a virtual lock to be selected in the Top 10. He’s currently rated No. 8 on Chad Ford’s ESPN Insider Big Board, while Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress slots him at No. 6 overall.

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

The University of Kentucky product can not only defend other big men, he can handle wing players because of his quickness and length. He’s also one of the very few big men who can switch out on a point guard without that situation being an obvious mismatch. With most NBA teams relying heavily on pick-and-rolls to create space and quality looks, Cauley-Stein can switch, hedge and recover on those plays with aplomb, which will often force the offense to take low-percentage shots with the shot clock winding down.

He can also create turnovers and provide rim protection. He led the Wildcats in steals in both his sophomore and junior seasons and recorded 106 blocks during his sophomore campaign. That figure dropped to 67 last season, partially due to Kentucky’s ability to seal off the paint and also because Cauley-Stein had another shotblocker, Karl Anthony-Towns, patrolling the lane alongside him. With his long arms and ability to cover so much ground, Cauley-Stein should have no trouble altering and blocking shots in situations where he’s a help defender. Add up those attributes and it’s no wonder he’s already being compared to the likes of DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Andre Drummond as a defensive force.

If there are any issues regarding Cauley-Stein defensively, it would be his frame and defensive rebounding. His needs to get stronger to compete physically with other post players on a nightly basis, though that can be said for virtually any big man entering the NBA. A slightly bigger concern is whether Cauley-Stein truly likes to mix it up underneath. As Givony points out, he can be outworked in the paint at times and he doesn’t consistently establish good box-out position. That explains why his defensive rebounding rate was a relatively modest 6.6 per 40 minutes in college.

There were no surprises regarding Cauley-Stein’s physical attributes at the draft combine. He measured a tad over 6’11” without shoes and 7’0” wearing them. His wingspan was an impressive 7’3” and he came to Chicago in excellent condition with a body fat content of 6.3%.

If Cauley-Stein had any semblance of an offensive game, he could have been the top pick in the draft. But that’s where the uncertainty regarding Cauley-Stein kicks in. The word raw is frequently mentioned by draft experts, scouts and front-office personnel when the subject of his offensive game is brought up. His contributions on that end mainly consist of dunks and layups created by guard penetration, offensive rebounds and transition opportunities. He averaged 8.9 points last season in the Wildcats’ balanced attack.

Kentucky didn’t look for Cauley-Stein to score on postups and midrange shots. As a result, he failed to develop any signature moves or carve out any sweet spots where defenders had to respect him. He made just one-third of his two-point jump shots in his junior year.
Without getting frequent touches, Cauley-Stein has not developed a knack for passing out of the post or finding open shooters and cutters. He averaged less than one assist per game during his three college seasons.

One area where he did show steady improvement was his free throw shooting. He went from a brutal 37.2% as a freshman to 48.2% the next year to 61.7% last season. Even if he only improves marginally as a foul shooter as a pro, that will be good enough to discourage opponents from intentionally fouling him.

Another knock against Cauley-Stein is his motor. He has often been criticized for looking disinterested at times and taking plays off, though he played with more intensity as his college career unfolded. The lack of focus at times has many scouts wondering if Cauley-Stein has a love for the game.

As an unnamed GM told NBA.com’s Scott Howard-Cooper, Cauley-Stein “leaves you wanting. You see the talent there, but you always think that there’s more he can give.”

Cauley-Stein has a difficult time understanding what all the fuss on this issue.

“If I didn’t love it, I wouldn’t put my body on the line, I wouldn’t run the way I do, I wouldn’t jump the way I do,” he told Scott-Cooper. “I’d be scared to do those things if I didn’t love the game. It just doesn’t make sense to me the way I play that I don’t love the game.”

There’s enough love over Cauley-Stein’s defensive prowess to quell most of the concerns about his shortcomings, perceived or otherwise. He should have a long NBA career, even if he settles for simply being a defensive stopper. Depending on team needs and draft-day trades, Cauley-Stein could even wind up moving into the top five. That’s the value of offering clarity in a sea of uncertainty.

Prospect Profile: Justise Winslow

May 16th, 2015 at 12:00pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Justise Winslow didn’t arrive on the campus of Duke University with quite the same level of hype and fanfare as fellow Blue Devils Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones. But the 19-year-old certainly made a name for himself as the season wore on, and his stellar play in the 2015 NCAA Tournament helped Duke capture the National Championship. In fact, it was Winslow’s performance in March that finally separated him from a crowded 2015 NBA draft field at the forward position, and propelled him from a projected mid first-rounder to a potential top five selection.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

In 39 games this past season, Winslow averaged 12.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.3 steals in 29.1 minutes per contest. His slash line was .486/.418/.641. The talented forward is currently the No. 5 overall prospect according to Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress, while Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) ranks Winslow at No. 6 on his big board.

While Winslow’s superior athleticism is readily apparent, what remains to be seen is if he is simply a player who got hot at the right time, or if his stellar NCAA postseason was part of his natural development into a top-tier player. Winslow’s showing during his pre-draft workouts will be especially vital given the depth at the forward position at the top of the draft. He’ll need to show NBA scouts and executives during these showcases that he can nail his outside shots with consistency, or else he could slide just a bit come draft night.

Offensively, Winslow is still very much a work in progress. He was considered a mediocre shooter coming into college, as he made just 26 of the 86 [30%] 3-pointers he attempted in the 82 games (FIBA, EYBL, Adidas Nations, etc) he participated in prior to arriving at Duke, notes Givony. But the freshman has obviously worked hard on his mechanics, and he connected on 46 of the 111 [41.8%] treys he attempted while at Duke, which was obviously a significant improvement. But Winslow still has virtually no mid-range game to rely on, and he struggles to score coming off the dribble, only hitting on 2 of the 19 pull-ups he attempted on the year according to the DraftExpress scribe. This is not an area of the game that will get easier once he squares off against NBA-caliber defenders, so Winslow will have a lot to prove during his pre-draft showcases to show he’s worthy of a top five pick in June.

Winslow is an absolute stud in the transition game, and in the open floor he is a load to handle on defense thanks to his athleticism. He is also an excellent ball-handler with a solid basketball IQ, and rarely turns the ball over. All rare traits for a freshman. Winslow is also adept at moving without the ball in his hands, and his ability to make cuts and attack the rim should mesh well with the pick-and-roll fetish prevalent in most NBA teams’ offenses today. Matched with a willing and creative point guard, Winslow should receive his fair share of lobs and dunk opportunities as a result of his capable off-the-ball game when he hits the NBA hardwood.

One aspect of his college game that may not travel well to the pros is Winslow’s reliance on his strength to attack the basket. He was able to overpower most of his NCAA opponents down on the block this season, which isn’t necessarily something Winslow will be able to do in the NBA. Especially if he is deployed at power forward like he was the second half of the 2014/15 season. A great deal of Winslow’s success in the NBA offensively will be predicated on his eventual position. Winslow may be able to succeed at the four if utilized the way Carmelo Anthony is by the Knicks when he plays power forward. But I do think Winslow is best suited as a small forward long-term, though he’ll need to develop his consistency from the outside, as well as improve upon his 64% mark from the charity stripe at Duke in order to be an effective wing long term in the NBA.

Winslow’s most appealing quality right now as an NBA prospect is his ability to be a tenacious lockdown defender. This is an area where his strength becomes a tremendous asset, and very few college big men were able to overpower him in the paint area. But Winslow is also quick and agile enough to stay in front of guards while out on the perimeter, giving him tremendous versatility on the defensive end of the floor, Givony opines. Winslow also possesses excellent footwork, solid situational awareness, and he is equally adept at defending one-on-one as he is being a team defender within his rotations.

It’s Winslow’s ability to defend four positions that will stand out when teams are assessing his value as a lottery pick. With more and more NBA teams deploying non-traditional lineups, players will have to be able to adapt and display versatility to benefit their prospective teams. As a defender Winslow reminds me quite a bit of the Hornets’ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who also was accompanied by questions regarding his outside game when he entered the league. While Kidd-Gilchrist hasn’t evolved into the two-way player that Charlotte had hoped, Winslow’s mechanics are significantly better than the former Kentucky forward, which bodes well for his chances for success in the NBA.

In conclusion, the 19-year-old has an NBA-ready frame, the quickness to guard wing players, but also the strength to bang inside with the fours. But this versatility is also accompanied by the worry that Winslow is a tweener, which is a regular concern with many college forwards transitioning to the NBA. I can see Winslow developing into Kawhi Leonard just as easily as he could become Derrick Williams or Thomas Robinson. And while Williams and Robinson are serviceable rotation pieces, neither is a player who can change the face of a franchise, which is what teams are hoping for from a potential top five selection like Winslow. However, I do like the forward’s chances of growing into a special player in the NBA after a few seasons. Winslow will likely come off the board in the four to seven range on draft night.

Prospect Profile: Devin Booker

May 11th, 2015 at 9:20pm CST by Charlie Adams

Devin Booker’s name is one that often goes unmentioned when discussing the best talent in this year’s draft class, but that’s not because of unimpressive play during his brief stint with Kentucky. Instead, the NBA-bound Wildcat freshman can blame his hyper-talented team for overshadowing the efficient numbers he was able to put up during his lone season in blue and white. Booker is one of seven Kentucky players leaving school early to enter the pros, and while ex-teammates Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein almost certainly figure to be taken ahead of him, there’s little doubt that Booker’s game will effectively translate to the next level and give whichever team that takes him a solid NBA shooting guard.

Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks Booker as the 12^th best prospect in this year’s class, while Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider link) has him a decent amount lower at 19^th. At only 18 years old, Booker is the youngest player in the upcoming crop of rookies; he won’t even turn 19 until the 2015/16 season has already tipped off. In spite of his youth, Givony writes in the previously linked piece that Booker’s strong fundamentals and high basketball IQ should definitely stand to appeal to GM’s around the Association. Younger players can oftentimes be knocked for taking bad shots or turning the ball over, but Booker’s stellar 47.1% field goal percentage and ultra-low 1.8 turnovers per 40 minutes prove that he makes good decisions when he’s got the rock in his hands.

While his intelligence on the floor shouldn’t be overlooked, it’s obvious that the most impressive skill Booker brings to the table is his lights-out shooting. He nailed 41.1% of his takes from beyond the arc last season, and his 60% true shooting percentage was fourth best in the SEC. Right around half of his attempted field goals came from three point range, so his eye-catching numbers don’t come from a small sample, and at 6.9 threes attempted per 40 minutes, it’s clear Booker is confident in his ability to hit from downtown (rightfully so). Floor spacing is a critical component in today’s NBA game, and Booker’s excellent mechanics and high release point make him arguably the best marksmen in this year’s class.

At 6’6” and over 200 pounds, Booker definitely possesses enough size to play shooting guard at the next level. He’s not an elite-level athlete, but he does have the capability to create his own shot and doesn’t just rely on spot-up jumpers to earn his points. Excellent footwork and crafty use of teammates’ screens give Booker the ability to hit on looks from all over the floor, and he’s not afraid to drain it from anywhere he can get open. Still, Booker’s game primarily takes place outside of the paint, and Ford believes he’ll need to improve his ability to drive to the basket if he wants to become a complete offensive player at the next level. It’s not that Booker struggles to finish once he’s at the rim; he just has a tough time cutting through defenses and making adjustments to get there.

Booker’s defense was nothing spectacular last year, but he didn’t hurt his team while he was on the floor either. His 92.2 defensive rating was good enough to rank eighth in the SEC, but that figure was heavily impacted by the presence of teammates Towns and Cauley-Stein, two elite rim protectors who gave opposing offenses nightmares. Booker’s height and weight will allow him to stick with most two-guards in the NBA, but Givony notes that Booker’s diminutive 6’6″ wingspan will likely prevent him from effectively guarding longer wing players, severely limiting his positional versatility.

It’s almost impossible to find a “sure thing” in the draft, but Booker’s high IQ and precise shooting make him a low-risk selection worthy of being taken in the middle of the first round. In fact, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him taken in the back end of the lottery, depending on how his workouts go over the next month and a half. Booker will probably never develop into a perennial All-Star, but his combination of youth, intelligence, and floor spacing capabilities have him looking like he has the makeup to be a solid NBA two-guard at the very least, with the ceiling of a very good fundamental player who can score in bunches.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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