Prospect Profile

Prospect Profile: Jerami Grant

April 27th, 2014 at 12:26pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Syracuse sophomore forward Jerami Grant, the son of former NBA forward Harvey Grant, announced his intention to enter the 2014 NBA Draft. Grant said, “After extensive discussions with my family and coaches, I have decided to pursue my dream of playing professional basketball and enter the 2014 NBA Draft. I am so thankful to coach [Jim] Boeheim and the rest of the Orange coaching staff for guiding me throughout my college career, and am grateful to my teammates for two incredible seasons. I am excited to start my journey in the NBA, but I also look forward to finishing my college degree. I cannot thank my coaches, teammates and the entire Orange community enough for all of their support.”

Draft experts see Grant as a mid-to-late first round pick. In current mock drafts, DraftExpress has him going 19th, CBSSports.com puts him 16th, NBA Draft.net ranks him 20th, and Bleacher Report places him 19th, and Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks Grant 21st on his Big Board.

Grant started 20 of 32 games for the Orange during his second season. He averaged 12.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 APG, and 0.8 SPG in 31.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .496/.000/.674. His career numbers were 7.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 0.9 APG in 21.9 minutes per contest. His career slash line was .486/.300/.641.

At this stage of his development Grant is unpolished as a player but has a high upside athletically. One of the first issues affecting his draft stock is that he doesn’t have a clearly defined NBA position, and can be categorized as a tweener. His size (6’8″) and defensive skills suggest his best fit is as a small forward, but his ball-handling and shooting touch limit him offensively. Without a solid post game and possessing a slender frame, it is unknown if he can hold up as an undersized everyday power forward. Grant does have a 7’2″ wingspan, which could help compensate for his size defensively.

“I like his size and length and athletic ability,” a player personnel director for a team in the NBA’s Western Conference said to Mike Waters of The Post-Standard. “He needs to show that he can handle the ball on the perimeter and shoot the ball on the perimeter.” Another NBA executive said that Grant should improve his overall game with another year at Syracuse. “I personally think he should stay in school,” an assistant GM for a Western Conference team said to Waters. “He’s got a lot of upside but he’s got a lot of skill development to do. I think he could really improve his draft status by staying in school.”

Offensively, Grant’s value right now is limited to scoring around the rim and in transition. According to DraftExpress, he did most of his damage inside, where his leaping ability and touch helped him be a consistent finisher. Grant also runs the floor well, moves without the ball, and plays off his teammates. He crashes the glass aggressively, and showed excellent ability to attack the rim. Grant shot 57% at the rim in the half court and 68% in transition according to Synergy Sports Technology, which ranked him third among small forward prospects in the top 100.

Outside shooting is the biggest hole in Grant’s game at this stage in his development. He is extremely inconsistent from mid-range to the three-point line. He does not have a soft touch or a great mechanical release on his jump shot. Grant also hasn’t developed a reliable post arsenal or the advance ball-handling ability to help him create his own shot regularly one-on-one against quality defenders.

As a play-maker Grant is a team oriented player who is a willing passer and has shown flashes of being good at finding teammates in good positions to score. He is merely an average ball-handler, though. In the open court Grant can rebound the ball and push it up-court, but he has a lose handle that can be susceptible to turnovers. This season he averaged 1.2 turnovers per game.

Defensively, Grant is very active and avoids overplaying jumpers when closing out on his man. While not statistically a great shot blocker, he does not chase after blocks by leaving his position as many young defenders tend to. Grant has shown the ability to defend multiple positions, and in addition to his skills as a transition scorer, his immediate impact in the league will be felt on the defensive end. His game in this area has been compared to Shawn Marion‘s.

For a young player with limitations, one positive that can be said is that Grant is aware of them, and he doesn’t try and do things outside his skill set. Chad Ford noted this and compared Grant to Detroit’s Josh Smith, saying, “What if [Josh] Smith had just been content doing the things he does well instead of launching ill-advised long 2s and 3s all game? Hawks fans probably stay up late at night wondering that. Well, Grant might be your answer. Like Smith, he’s a freak athlete who has versatile skills. Unlike Smith, he knows he’s not a great 3-point shooter and has taken just five all season.”

Grant is an intriguing prospect from an athletic standpoint. He has more question marks than teams would generally like in a first round selection, but he does have a high upside. Besides Marion, his game has been compared to those of Darius Miles and Anthony Randolph. I don’t see him as a starter, but if he can make the jump from Syracuse’s 2-3 zone to the more man-to-man oriented NBA, he could be valuable off the bench as a defender and a high-energy transition scorer. I definitely see a team selecting him in the first round, but I wouldn’t use a top 20 pick on a tweener with limited offensive skills. I see him going somewhere in the mid-20s.

Prospect Profile: James Young

April 26th, 2014 at 7:07pm CST by Eddie Scarito

James Young, one of Kentucky’s six high school All-American recruits from a year ago, declared he was leaving school to play in the NBA. Young said in a statement that ”my time at Kentucky has been special to me, something I’ll always treasure, but I feel that I’m ready to take the next step to the NBA.” In recent mock drafts the consensus is that Young is a late lottery pick. DraftExpress has him going 15th, Bleacher Report slots him in 12th, and CBSSports.com places him 15th. Young is also currently ranked 15th on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big Board.

Coach John Calipari weighed in on Young, saying ”From Day 1, the NBA people who came to our practices in the preseason raved about him. He’s done everything we’ve asked of him all season, investing himself in his brothers for the betterment of the team, and I think we all saw the end result in the tournament and Final Four. Whatever team drafts James is not only getting a superb athlete, they are getting the ultimate teammate.”

At 6’6″ with a 6’11″ wingspan, Young has prototypical size for an NBA wing player, and has a 215-pound frame that should continue to develop over time. He doesn’t possess tremendous speed or a quick burst off the dribble, but Young is an exceptionally smooth athlete who can play above the rim and score in bunches. His numbers on the season were 14.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, and 0.8 SPG in 32.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .407/.349/.706.

Young will have to shoot the ball well to succeed in the NBA because he showed little ability to fill up a stat sheet. He’s not much of a playmaker, which could be an issue at the next level. Young can struggle to get separation when he puts the ball on the floor, and he lacks creativity with his ball-handling and doesn’t change tempo or direction well. He’s an average passer, but he tends to make mistakes with the ball and averaged 1.9 turnovers a game, not great numbers considering he was rarely the primary ball handler at Kentucky.

Young’s ability to get shots off over defenders makes him a scoring threat, but it also limits his efficiency. The left-handed shooter struggled from the perimeter for long stretches this season thanks to the high amount of contested jump shots he attempted. According to DraftExpress, almost three-quarters of Young’s 199 catch-and-shoot jump shots this season were defended. He connected on 45% of his open shot attempts but hit only 32% while being guarded. Since uncontested shots are at a premium in the NBA, Young will have to improve his consistency in this area.

If he doesn’t improve his shot, 2-guards or wings who struggle with offensive consistency don’t have much value to NBA teams if they don’t contribute on defense. Young has some defensive tools, but he lacks natural instincts in this facet of the game. He has a low defensive IQ, and that isn’t always something a player can easily change.

One indicator of Young’s lack of defensive ability is his abnormally low steal rate for the position he plays. Despite all of Young’s athleticism he’s averaging less than a steal per game in over 32 minutes of action. ESPN’s analytics expert Kevin Pelton wrote (Insider subscription required) that “Historically steal rate has outsized the importance of physical tools in predicting how well prospects will translate to the NBA.”

Young is a solid rebounder for his position but is still figuring things out on this end of the floor. His fundamentals need work, as illustrated by Young’s tendency not to get in a proper stance, allowing smaller, less athletic players to get position on him. DraftExpress noted that Young’s poor fundamentals, average awareness, and lack of lateral speed doesn’t give him outstanding upside in this area as a pro, but he has the capacity to improve his effectiveness over time.

Young is far from a sure thing and lacks a complete skill set as a player, but he is only 19 years old and has a wealth of potential. Young has the foundation of necessary skills to be an effective scorer down the line, which is something in high demand in the NBA. His upside at the pro level has been compared to that of Arron Afflalo‘s. Like Afflalo, I believe it will take a few years for Young to blossom into an effective rotation player. While I don’t believe he’ll be a superstar at the next level, I do think his upside is higher than that of fellow shooting guards Gary Harris or Nik Stauskus in the long run. If he doesn’t markedly improve his defense though, he’ll limit his usefulness to being a sixth man. Unless he blows teams away during his pre-draft workouts, I have him being taken after Harris in the 10-15 range of the draft.

Prospect Profile: Shabazz Napier

April 24th, 2014 at 9:21pm CST by Charlie Adams

Shabazz Napier finished out his impressive four-year career at UConn in spectacular fashion, winning his second NCAA championship over the preseason favorite Kentucky Wildcats. The point guard’s impeccable shooting and must-win mentality propelled the seventh-seeded Huskies to four consecutive upsets en route to their title matchup in Texas. Although generally considered a second-round pick prior to the Big Dance, his outstanding tourney performance now has Napier being discussed as a potential first-rounder.

During his senior season, Napier averaged 18.0 points on 42.9% shooting while dishing out 4.9 assists per contest. His ability to shift gears and move quickly with the ball allowed him to find ways around defenders in college, even without explosive athleticism. Napier’s biggest asset during his time in the NCAA was his top-notch scoring ability from all over the floor; he drained 46.5% of shots beyond the arc throughout his most recent tournament play and was noted for several clutch shots that ended up being the deciding factor in games.

A player profile from Jacob Stallard of NBADraft.net notes how Napier was criticized during his freshman and sophomore seasons for so-so shot selection and a penchant for taking contested jumpers rather than finding open teammates. He was able to improve his decision making abilities during his last two years and become a better distributor. He’ll likely need to further develop this portion of his game since he won’t be able to drive to the basket quite so easily once he reaches the NBA, and finding the open man is perhaps the most valuable skill an undersized point guard can possess.

His defense proved to be adequate in college, where he was able to nab 1.8 steals per game over the course of his four-year career. There are obvious concerns that his diminutive 6’1″ height and 6’2″ wingspan will limit his ability to defend at the next level, and it’s tough to argue that his small stature and less-than-stellar speed won’t make it difficult to guard bigger, more athletic NBA competition on a nightly basis. Still, shorter players, like Chris Paul, have been able to find ways to excel on defense despite height disadvantages. Napier will need to work to figure out how to succeed on defense without great size if he wants to see major minutes.

Seniors have been selected less frequently than collegians from any other class, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors recently detailed, likely due in large part to the perception that their potential for development is limited. Napier is actually older than plenty of NBA players, including the likes of All-Stars such as Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, but Napier’s age and experience in this season’s tournament could actually stand to benefit his stock for teams seeking a player who can contribute minutes in his first year. The latest mock draft from Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress sees Napier being taken 28th overall, while NBADraft.net‘s newest mock has Napier going 12th.

It’s an understatement to say there’s disparity regarding Napier’s projected draft stock. There are reports that say he’s still a second-round pick, while his tournament play has over-inflated his draft projection in some circles. Still others peg him as a true first-rounder capable of making an impact wherever he goes. The team that selects him will land a player with terrific scoring instincts and a knack for excelling in big time situations, but they’ll also need to recognize the limitations his age and physical tools will have on his overall game.

Prospect Profile: Cleanthony Early

April 23rd, 2014 at 10:56pm CST by Alex Lee

As far as mid-major NBA hopefuls go, there haven’t been many that enjoyed a college experience quite like that of Cleanthony Early. Transferring to Wichita State after two years of Division-III ball, Early led the Shockers to the 2013 Final Four, their first appearance since 1965. As an encore, he guided Wichita State to a one-seed this March by way of a spotless 34-0 record.

Early and the undefeated Shockers fell in spectacular fashion to eighth-seeded Kentucky in the second round. In what was an instant classic, Early put on a show in his final college game against an opponent loaded with future NBAers, including a head-to-head matchup with soon-to-be lottery pick Julius Randle. He totaled 31 points on 12 of 17 shooting against the Wildcats, adding seven rebounds for good measure in what was an unforgettable performance that undoubtedly boosted his draft stock.

Even so, Early is already 23 years old, which puts a serious cap on his upside. In a recent chat with his readers, ESPN’s Chad Ford indicates that Early is likely a mid-to-late first round pick, with his age being a potential red flag. Later in the chat, Ford referred to draft prospects turning 23 as “the kiss of death” in the NBA’s analytics world. However, Ford did mention that Early’s tournament performance did, in fact, help him.

Early averaged 16.4 points per game as a senior at Wichita State, though his scoring prowess was perhaps best measured by the 24.5 points he averaged per 40 minutes, as the Shockers played in plenty of lopsided affairs. He was also very efficient, shooting 48.6% from the field, 37.5% from three and knocking down 84% of his free throws. He pulled down just under six rebounds per night for the Shockers.

With his ceiling may be limited, there is plenty to like about the 6’8″ forward. His offensive game is polished, as he boasts the ability to score inside and on the perimeter. He predominantly played power forward in college, though he has an improving three-point shot. Most important, his game is NBA-ready. Early is tough, skilled and physical enough to contribute right away. If he lands in the right spot in the back half of the first round, we could soon see Early playing meaningful minutes in meaningful games for a contender.

As Jonathan Givony of Draft Express points out, there is some position concern with Early, making his ceiling as a role player all but certain. He played power forward in college, but doesn’t have the size or wingspan to do so at the next level. He has some of the requisite skills to play the three, but his ball handling needs to improve, as does the consistency and range of his jumper. He also needs to get better defensively. But the question remains:
How much can he be expected to improve, given his advanced age?

One thing Early has going for him is that he has shown an ability to rapidly progress his skill set, transforming from a Division-III standout to a surefire NBA draft pick in only a few years. That should not go unnoticed, though in today’s NBA when everyone but the elite teams is looking for upside, Early sure has the look of a late first-round pick.

Prospect Profile: Mitch McGary

April 20th, 2014 at 10:00pm CST by Zachary Links

While shooting guard Nik Stauskas figures to be the first member of the Michigan Wolverines off the board in this year’s draft, teammate Mitch McGary also figures to garner some serious attention. While McGary was a virtual lock for the first round in the underwhelming 2013 draft, his draft position is a little more tenuous this time around.

The 6’10” big man returned to Michigan for another season of seasoning but things unfortunately didn’t go as planned. McGary came into the year battling back issues which caused him to miss the first two games of the season. While he showed grit by battling through the pain, he ultimately had to undergo surgery in December 2013, shutting down his season prematurely. While he chose to stay in school last time around, McGary might not want to chance things yet again and decide to enter his name in the draft along with teammates Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III.

McGary offers an extremely high motor and boasts the kind of skill set that should make him an ideal role player at the next level. With his athleticism, McGary is able to disrupt shots on a regular basis and has shown that he can rebound with the best of them. He also boasts a solid understanding of the game and his learning curve shouldn’t be as steep as others in the class.

During his freshman year and his abbreviated sophomore campaign, McGary showed that he can get boards on both the defensive side and the offensive side. In roughly 20 minutes per contest over the past two years, McGary has averaged 6.6 boards per game, which averages out to 12.9 boards per a full 40 minute game. During his freshman year, his offensive rebounding output put him amongst the very best in the Big Ten even though he wasn’t playing star minutes.

While he’s undersized to play the five at the next level, McGary’s overall strength should help him keep pace with bigger opponents. It’s common to hear that collegiate frontcourt prospects need to “toughen up” and/or “bulk up,” but McGary probably won’t need to do much in either area. The Wolverines big man isn’t a fully polished product, but he comes more NBA ready than most.

On the flipside, McGary’s offensive profile isn’t as impressive as his rebounding, defense, and overall hustle. The 21-year-old’s post game still leaves much to be desired and it would be a surprise to see him used as a consistent offensive option early in his pro career. Meanwhile, when McGary is further out, he has displayed less-than-ideal shot selection. Rather than reacting to what he’s given, McGary willingly settled for some bad jumpers during his frosh campaign.

His free throw shooting is also cause for concern. No one expects a 6’10” big man to shoot from the charity stripe like Reggie Miller, but the 44.2% rate he offered from the line in 2012/13 is problematic. McGary’s physical style will give way to a lot of hard fouls when he’s on offense and when that happens he’ll have to convert on the opportunities given to him.

All things considered, McGary doesn’t appear to offer the same kind of upside as other late first round options in this year’s class. That’s thanks in part to McGary’s age – academic setbacks held back his schooling, so the sophomore is actually going to turn 22 over the summer. He’s the same age (or older) than most college seniors, but only has 47 regular season NCAA games to his credit.

No one will mistake the sophomore for a potentially game changing type of talent like Kansas’ Joel Embiid, but he can help round out a team’s bench and contribute right off of the bat. Much of McGary’s stock will likely hinge on how well he can move in workouts and how he checks out when he undergoes some rigorous physical exams. Look for McGary to go late in the first round but not any higher.

Prospect Profile: Gary Harris

April 20th, 2014 at 12:39pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The upcoming NBA Draft will have almost certainly have the lottery portion dominated by freshman, but teams looking for a solid shooting guard who can do a little bit of everything might find Michigan State’s Gary Harris to be the answer. The 6’4″ sophomore announced he was entering this year’s draft last week. “I expect Gary to be a high pick in the draft, but more importantly, I know that he is well prepared for a long career,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said in a released statement.

During the announcement Harris said, “The last two years have been the best of my life, but it’s time to follow my dream and declare for the NBA Draft. My two seasons at Michigan State have been an amazing experience. I have a lifetime of memories, including some incredible games in some incredible places, NCAA tournaments, and cutting down the nets after a Big Ten Tournament Championship. But most important are the friendships I’ve developed with my teammates. These are bonds that will last forever, especially the guys in my class. I can’t imagine a better group of guys to be around.”

In 35 games this season, Harris averaged 16.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 32.3 minutes per night. His slash line was .429/.352/.810. In two seasons, Harris’ career numbers were 14.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.6 SPG in 31.0 minutes per game. His career slash line was .440/.376/.788.

Harris is currently projected as a late lottery pick. NBA Draft.net projects him being taken eighth in their latest mock draft, CBSSports.com has him going 10th, Bleacher Report has him 11th, and Draft Express slots him 13th. Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Harris ranked as the 11th best prospect on his “Big Board.”

Harris is a well-rounded player who can do numerous things to help his team win on both ends of the court. He is one of the best offensive prospects in the draft, and a highly proficient scorer on the perimeter, despite the fact he didn’t shoot the ball nearly as well as he was a year ago. After shooting 43% from the three-point line as a freshman, his percentage dropped to 35% this year. Whether or not Harris can make the shots from deep more consistently in the NBA is a question that scouts are asking. One plus is that his high and quick release will not need much adjustment as he moves to playing against elite athletes in the NBA.

While most scouts thought of Harris as just a shooter after his freshman campaign, he worked hard in the weight room to develop his body and put on muscle. This bulk helps him to attack the rim and finish off the bounce and not be rattled by larger defenders in the paint. Harris is also able to create for himself with a quick two-dribble attack and is excellent at the catch-and-shoot game. He is also very solid coming off screens and is skilled at knowing the proper time to come off them for a jump shot, or drive to the rim.

Harris is a tenacious defensive player who has a good chance to translate his gifts to the professional level sooner than other 2014 first round prospects. His game is also more mature than his age as he will be only 19 on draft day. He ranked fourth in the Big Ten in steals, and eighth in defensive wins shares with 2.0. Harris is both disruptive and consistent enough on the defensive end that other teams have to account for him at all times.

One concern for Harris is his size. He is considered a small two guard at the next level, and could be taken advantage of by bigger, stronger, guards. He still has time to develop and fill out his frame, so he could increase his overall strength, but the height could be an issue if he’s a starter. Coming off the bench as a sixth man could offset his disadvantage and maximize his productivity.

Some scouts have opined that it’s “unrealistic” to think he’ll be a high-impact player right away, but he is a player without a glaring weakness. NBA executives like his size, strength, athleticism, scoring ability, defense and character. The biggest plus about Harris is that GMs already know what type of player he is, as well as what position he’ll play. He isn’t an elite athlete like a few of the top prospects in this year’s class, but he is a solid, steady player who will contribute in every facet of the game.

His upside and game have been compared to O.J. Mayo and J.R. Smith, but with a more solid character, and he’s regarded as much more coachable. Harris isn’t a player who will blow teams away during pre-draft workouts, but on film the nuances of his game will shine. He is almost certain to be taken in the lottery, and I believe he will become a solid pro, but not a No. 1 scoring option in the NBA. He’s a great value pick in the 10-15 range.

Prospect Profile: T.J. Warren

April 13th, 2014 at 6:58pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The announcement had been expected since the team lost its second-round tournament game, and last Tuesday it became official when North Carolina State’s T.J. Warren declared for the 2014 NBA Draft. The announcement was made by the university. “It’s been a fun ride the last few years. I’ve had some great experiences and now I feel I’m ready to play at the next level,” Warren said in a released statement. “Playing in the NBA has been a lifelong dream of mine and playing at NC State has prepared me well to achieve my dream.”

The Wolfpack sophomore finished the 2013/14 regular season with back-to-back 40-plus scoring nights, and in the NCAA tournament Warren averaged 26.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 3.0 SPG. In 35 total games this season, Warren averaged 24.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 35.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .525/.267/.690. For his career Warren averaged 18.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, and 1.5 SPG in 31.2 minutes per contest. His career slash line is .555/.315/.654.

Warren’s value is as an offensive threat. He can score in a variety of ways, and many of his skills should translate to the NBA. Despite his 24.9 PPG and ACC Player of the Year honors, Warren doesn’t project as an NBA superstar. He also won’t be a dynamic shot-creator or a No. 1 scoring option, but can still be a productive pro. I see Warren providing Shane Battier or John Salmons level numbers on the right team, but he’s not a number one option.

Warren is a highly unconventional player, and is quite a gifted scorer. He moves off the ball exceptionally well, and finds gaps instinctually in opposing defenses, and can score in a variety of ways. While not a traditional one-on-one player (most of his isolation plays come from the elbow or short corner), he’s extremely tough to defend because of the quality of his mid-range game and how many different release points he has on his shots. Jeff Benedict of SI.com said, “So many of Warren’s baskets this season have come after he’s used off-the-ball screens to get himself open. When moving without the ball, Warren is like a gun fighter who always has his hand on the trigger. Any sign of the slightest opening and Warren fires. Especially when he’s within 15 feet of the basket.”

He also displays terrific footwork, an extremely soft touch and has a knack for going glass. Warren is also extremely effective close the basket, making 69% of his non-floater attempts around the rim, which is also first among the Top-100 ranked prospects. Warren has also taken the third highest amount of runners and floaters in all of college basketball this season according to Synergy Sports Technology, hitting over 50% of these attempts, which is first among the Top-100 prospects.

Warren’s outside shooting may be suspect from NBA long range distance. He has shown some issues with his shooting stroke, and only connected on 26.7% of his threes last season. A long, low dip has been observed in his shooting motion, and he’s a bit “chicken-winged” when he raises up to deliver the ball. If he fails to refine these deficiencies, he won’t be able to stretch opposing defenses at the professional level. Continued inability to regularly connect from beyond the arc would end his chances of being a legitimate rotational weapon at the pro level. You can’t play the three or be a small four in the NBA unless you can shoot with real range and space the floor.

If Warren cannot find an effective role in the NBA, he may struggle to maintain substantial minutes which would lower his production and value. The positive view is that he wouldn’t require a whole lot of touches to put up points, especially when working in transition and away from the ball. As a third or fourth scoring option, he could score double digits with only eight or nine shot attempts per night. Warren could also operate well as a facilitator if he’s able to draw defenses in, because he’s demonstrated that he’s a capable if not always willing passer while at N.C. State.

His main weakness is that he doesn’t have a defined position in the NBA. Warren lacks athleticism at the wing, and he’s small for a post player and has short arms. Regardless of what position he plays he’s going to be at an athletic disadvantage due to poor lateral quickness and being only an average athlete.

Warren was primarily tasked with guarding power forwards at NC State, and will likely see more time on the perimeter defensively in the NBA, which poses another set of questions he’ll have to answer in his pre-draft workouts. Warren could have a lot of trouble guarding swingmen in the NBA according to Draft Express video analyst Mike Schmitz, whose scouting report stated, “Not a great on-ball defender…Not all that quick laterally…A bit of a ‘tweener on defense. Not strong enough for power forwards. Must be able to check NBA small forwards if he wants to be a 3.”

Warren’s tweener skills make his NBA value a bit difficult to predict. Most mock drafts have him as a mid-to-late first round pick. Warren currently ranks 18th in Draft Express‘ latest, 28th in CBSSports.com‘s, NBA Draft.net has him ranked 20th, Bleacher Report has Warren 23rd, and he ranks 32nd on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big Board.

The one facet that Warren has to sell teams on is his ability as a scorer. Whether he can defend well enough to stay on the court long enough to get his shots in will be a big question mark. Warren will also need to make adjustments and work towards improving his outside shot. The ceiling on his game has been compared to that of Michael Beasley and Trevor Ariza. Based on his college production and taking into account his limitations, Warren could make for a good value pick late in the first round, and would make a nice complementary piece on a playoff team. I wouldn’t take him in the lottery though, especially when players with higher upsides will still be on the board.

Prospect Profile: Rodney Hood

April 12th, 2014 at 9:22pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Heading into the 2013/14 college basketball season, most of the discussions about Duke players and the 2014 NBA Draft revolved around Jabari Parker, and deservedly so. But Rodney Hood also began the year as a projected top-10 pick, but has moved down in the rankings due to the unexpected emergence of other players and some of his limitations on the defensive end.

But Hood apparently decided one year in Durham was enough and was rumored to be entering the 2014 draft. He is ranked 25th in the latest mock by Draft Express, while NBA Draft.net has him 11th, and CBSSports.com ranks him 13th. Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Hood currently ranked 16th on his Big Board.

The Mississippi State transfer entered the season as a player regarded to have a great outside shot, a good ability to take the ball to the rim, and no major offensive weaknesses that would keep him from being an NBA player. He didn’t do anything to dispel these notions. In 35 games Hood averaged 16.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 2.1 APG while playing 32.9 minutes per game. His slash line was .464/.420/.807. Hood’s numbers his freshman year at Mississippi State were 10.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.0 APG in 32.8 minutes a night.

Hood shares many of the traits that have attracted NBA teams to Parker’s game. He has shown himself to be a versatile player with excellent length, and good athleticism. He is also effective out in transition, able to finish at the rim, can beat defenders off the dribble, and can be very effective from behind the three-point line.

He ranked eighth in the ACC in 3-point field goals made, and sixth in total field goals made. Hood ranked first overall in effective field goal percentage with .550. His overall field goal percentage of .464 was good for fourth in the ACC, and his offensive win shares of 3.7 was good for third in the conference. Fine numbers for playing on a team as talented as Duke.

There aren’t a bunch of concerns about Hood’s offensive game, but there are a few question marks. Hood hardly ever goes to his right and this could become an issue at the next level. Teams will force him to use his right hand and it hasn’t been seen if he can finish going that way. The other unknown is Hood hasn’t been viewed as a play maker. While at Mississippi State he was strictly a catch and shoot player, but at Duke he has demonstrated a little more variety to his game. To be an effective scorer in the NBA though, Hood will have to show more of an ability to create his own shot. He also still needs to work more on passing to the open man instead of forcing up bad shots.

Though he has worked on his body, Hood has a slight frame and needs to add upper body strength, which he’ll need to play against NBA small forwards. He stands 6’8″, but is a slim 215 pounds. The majority of his offense comes as a shooter, because his lack of strength makes him hesitant to drive. Hood is also not a great rebounder, which again points to a lack of strength. He doesn’t have a frame made to carry bulk, so it will be a challenge for him to correct this.

Hood’s biggest weakness as an NBA prospect revolves around his defense, as he has shown questionable intensity on this end of the floor, rarely getting into an actual stance and frequently being knocked off balance and taken advantage of off the dribble due to his lack of strength. His relatively short arms don’t help, which may be reflected in his inability to generate steals (0.7 SPG), blocks (0.3 BPG) or rebounds (3.9 RPG), all of which rank among the worst rates in the draft at his position. According to Draft Express Hood has decent lateral quickness, so he could end up becoming at least adequate in this area, but he’ll have to improve his motor and hustle quite a bit and also get stronger and tougher, as he allows himself to get pushed around with minimal resistance more than he should.

It is all but certain that if Hood makes the jump to the NBA, the interest will be there. He will be a first-round pick and possibly crack the lottery, so it’s difficult to fault him for turning pro. But if Hood elected to come back to Duke this would give scouts the chance to see how he performs when he isn’t benefiting from playing alongside Parker, who is arguably the best player in college basketball. Hood could also use another year under coach Mike Krzyzewski to raise his overall basketball I.Q.. This could set him up to be an early lottery pick in 2015.

The temptation will probably prove too great for Hood. There is always a demand for shooters in the league, and he certainly has a sweet stroke from downtown. His offensive game reminds me of Robert Horry‘s, and as a prospect, his ceiling has been compared to Rashard Lewis‘. My prediction is that he might sneak into the end of the lottery, but more than likely falls into the 16-24 range, where he could end up being a value pick. His limitations will hold him back from stardom, but he has the offensive tools to be a valuable role player in the NBA.

Prospect Profile: Joel Embiid

April 6th, 2014 at 6:21pm CST by Zachary Links

This wasn’t the year that Kansas had envisioned for themselves at the outset and it certainly wasn’t the season that Joel Embiid had hoped for. At least, it’s not how he wanted it to end. The 7-foot center saw his draft stock steadily rise throughout the year but the back injury he suffered earlier this year might eliminate him from contention for the first overall pick. Out of action since March 1st, the big man is now unsure of whether he will enter the June draft at all.

If Embiid decides to go pro, he’ll go through an medical exam that is stringent even by NBA Draft standards. He’ll also have to go in with absolute confidence in his ability to perform in workouts. Embiid could probably keep away from live competition and still land in the top three, but he’ll at least have to audition for teams and show that his mobility is still there.

In a season that was supposed to be all about teammate Andrew Wiggins, Embiid averaged 11.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks in 23.1 minutes per game. While the preordained No. 1 overall pick in the draft failed to display a killer instinct at crucial times throughout the year, Embiid likely made scouts drool with his athletic ability. He could probably stand to add some weight to his 250 pound frame, but the 7-footer boasts a 7’5″ wingspan that allows him to disrupt any offense he goes up against.

On the other side of the ball, Embiid’s agility allows him to move quite well in transition for easy buckets. Meanwhile, in the halfcourt set, Embiid probably offers more low post ability than your average college big man. He can also convert from mid-range, making him a tough assignment for any center.

For all of the praise that Embiid received throughout his freshman campaign, no one has accused him of being a polished product. The 20-year-old came off of the bench for the first eight games of the KU season and while he took off like a rocket ship from that point, it’s clear that he still has a long way to go. In any given draft, you’ll find that the top prospects available were veterans of the AAU circuit with an eye on the NBA dating back to middle school. In Embiid’s case, the Cameroonian has only been playing hoops since 2011. That should mean a high ceiling for the Jayhawk, but it could also signal some rough patches early on in his NBA career.

Will Embiid ultimately enter the draft? Back in January, he confessed that he wasn’t sure if he was quite ready to make the jump and he sounds just as conflicted today. However, as Marcus Smart has reminded all of us, staying in school can be a risky and somewhat regrettable move. Sometimes life offers us opportunities before we’re actually ready for them and, usually, you can’t put them on hold. Embiid may not feel like he’s ready, but the only logical choice for him is to dive into the deep end and become a top pick while it’s still a lock. Returning for his sophomore season may be the more comfortable option, but it’s not the wise one.

Prospect Profile: Kyle Anderson

April 6th, 2014 at 10:00am CST by Eddie Scarito

UCLA’s Kyle Anderson has to be considered one of the tougher prospects to accurately gauge as a draft prospect, as well predict what position he will actually play at the professional level. Anderson ran the point in high school, where he was a national standout and a McDonald’s All-American, but UCLA played him at the wing in his first year, alongside veteran point guard Larry Drew II, who averaged 35 minutes a game.

Anderson wasn’t overly impressive during that first season. He lacked the quickness and scoring repertoire to really generate much offense on his own, and without an effective outside shot, he became more of a passing specialist than a scorer or playmaker.

Kyle Anderson Sr., a high school basketball coach in New Jersey, had spent years molding his son into a point guard. So he was upset when coach Bob Hurley Sr. used Anderson as a shooting guard at St. Anthony High in Jersey City. “I was offended by that,” Anderson Sr. said, and continued to be upset when former UCLA coach Ben Howland did the same thing last season.

But then out went Howland, and in came Steve Alford, and with him came a move back to the point for Anderson. Instead of seeing a player who was too slow or a shooting guard playing out of position, Alford saw something unorthodox but special. Alford said, “He’s very unique. A 6’9″ point guard that facilitates the way he can. He’s a nightmare to match up with.”

Anderson quickly proved his value at the position, and was selected as one of six finalists for the Bob Cousy Award, presented annually to the nation’s top point guard. He also earned all-Pac-12 honors for his efforts. In 36 games Anderson averaged 14.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 6.5 APG, and 1.8 SPG while playing 33.2 minutes per game. His slash line is .480/.483/.737. His career numbers are 12.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 31.6 minutes a night. His career slash line is .452/.375/.736.

Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com writes that Anderson is unique, and has no match in college basketball. Norlander stated in his article, “Standing 6-feet-9 and playing point guard — and doing it well — he’s the closest thing to Magic Johnson since Magic Johnson. No, he’s not the next Magic Johnson, nor is he approaching Magic Johnson. But a player so tall, lengthy and commanding never gets trusted to run an offense in contemporary college hoops. ”

On KenPom.com (subscription required), the per-possession player stats are tracked and ranked in 15 different categories. Players whose stats fall in roughly the top 10 percentile among players in each category are highlighted in yellow. Anderson’s stat line is yellow in 11 out of the 15. Pretty impressive for a relatively unheralded player.

It’s metrics like that, plus his intriguing size and versatility that has taken him from being just another college prospect and now positioned him as a first-round, and possible late-lottery selection. The scouts are quite divided on where Anderson will end up being taken. NBA Draft.net has him going as high as fifth. Draft Express.com has him going 19th, while both Bleacher Report and CBSSports.com have Anderson being taken 24th. He currently sits 23rd on Chad Ford of ESPN.com’s Big Board.

The biggest knock on Anderson is his speed. His nickname is “Slow-Mo,” and being slower is a major concern, especially when you consider the speed at which the point guard position, or any position, is traditionally played at in the NBA. The argument against Anderson actually starts at the defensive end. With below-average lateral quickness, he won’t have an easy time guarding opposing point guards, and without much strength, athleticism or explosiveness, he’d be open to exploitation as a wing defender. There really isn‘t a defensive position that can hide his weaknesses. Anderson might be a versatile threat on offense, but he’s a tweener on defense.

In college, Anderson was able to use his size and basketball IQ to his advantage. He ranked ninth in the Pac-12 with a defensive rating of 95.4, and his defensive win shares of 206 was good for sixth in the league. Anderson was third in steals with 1.8 per game, and also ranked first in total defensive rebounds with 270. He has the ability and desire to be productive on the defensive end, but whether or not his lack of elite level athleticism will hamper him at the next level remains to be seen.

Offensively, scouts wonder if his lack of breakdown burst will prevent him from creating his own shots or getting to his spots, both as a point guard or a small forward. Despite the improvements he made to his jump shot, it’s still not a reliable weapon. Anderson made less than one three-pointer a game, and he doesn’t have the most confident release, which dampens hope that he can become a scoring threat from outside. An NBA scout said, “I honestly don’t see him lasting more than a few years in the league, though I’ve talked to other scouts that really like him. I just think his offense will take a step back once he gets to the NBA, and his inability to defend is really going to hurt him.”

As with any point guard, his true value will be measured in how well he runs an offense. Anderson is a very strong playmaker. He is very good at finding people in transition, he throws an accurate lob pass, and is effective at throwing outlet passes to facilitate fast breaks. Anderson is also good at recognizing the open man and setting up his shooters. As a ball handler though, he was prone to turnovers, averaging 3.1 per game this year. He was especially vulnerable to being stripped when driving to the basket. More experience running the point could correct these tendencies, but it is something to be wary of.

The final verdict on Kyle Anderson is a complicated one. Natural point guards of his size don’t come along very often, so this alone makes him an intriguing candidate. His lack of speed and athleticism is an issue, especially in the NBA where guards seemingly get faster every year. Anderson has the ability to play multiple positions, which could make him a valuable role-player off the bench. I also see his size and passing ability being a plus in certain systems. The triangle offense is one that requires a “point forward”, and is a role that I could see Anderson sliding into very well. His pre-draft workouts will be especially important to where he eventually gets selected. If he can belay some fears about his lack of explosiveness, he might prove too intriguing a prospect to pass up. I believe he’ll be taken in the 15-22 range of the upcoming draft. If he ends up with a team that runs the right system and exhibits some patience with his development, Anderson might have a future in the league. I just don’t see him becoming an all-star anytime soon.

Note: Kyle Anderson Sr. tells Hoops Rumors that he was misquoted in the USA Today article linked in the third paragraph, and that he loved the multifaceted role that Hurley crafted for his son at St. Anthony. Anderson Sr. said he “never once had a complaint” with his son’s high school coach.

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