Prospect Profile

Prospect Profile: Doug McDermott

April 5th, 2014 at 9:39am CST by Cray Allred

Doug McDermott strongly considered entering last year’s draft, but opted to stay in school for one more year. As we detailed in our profile of Marcus Smart, a year can make quite a difference in a player’s draft value. While Smart’s stock has slipped from last year, when he declined to stay at Oklahoma State despite being projected near the very top of the draft, McDermott has seen his stock skyrocket after returning to Creighton for his senior year.

Last year, McDermott was seen as a late first-rounder or second-rounder at best, but he’s projected at No. 10 overall in the latest DraftExpress mock draft, and ranked No. 13 in ESPN Insider Chad Ford’s Top 100 prospects list. Ironically, McDermott didn’t even consider a lottery selection to be a possibility when making his decision to return for his senior year. McDermott sought Creighton alum Kyle Korver‘s advice, telling Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports at the time, “[The 2014 draft] looks stronger at the top 15 to 18 picks, but after that it’s about the same. But that’s probably not going to be my range this year or next year, anyway. That helped me [decide].”

McDermott played power forward in college, and is listed at 6’8″ and 225 lbs. A dynamic scorer, the 22-year-old averaged 21.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game with a slash line of .550/.458/.831 in his four years at Creighton. He upped his scoring average this year, but was actually a slightly more efficient scorer in his junior year. It’s possible that Creighton’s move from the Missouri Valley Conference to the Big East had a hand in raising his profile, validating his status as one of the nation’s premier scorers. McDermott is already an extremely decorated athlete, holding Creighton’s all-time scoring record with more than 1,000 points more than the next most prolific scoring Bluejay, ranking third in career rebounds at the school, and becoming one of just a dozen players to earn First-Team All American honors three times in the history of the award.

McDermott is probably a bit undersized to establish himself as exclusively a power forward in the NBA, and isn’t quick enough to guard many of the league’s small forwards. The dreaded “tweener” label isn’t always a death knell, especially in a league utilizing more and more small-ball and unconventional lineups. However, some young frontcourt players with positional ambiguity have indeed struggled, for example Anthony Bennett (6’8″, 259 lbs.; designated a small forward) and Derrick Williams (6’8″, 240 lbs.; designated a power forward).

McDermott’s greatest strengths have been shooting and rebounding, two skillsets that tend to translate well from college to pro hoops. However, some scouts have questions about his size and lack of athleticism. Whether McDermott can survive defensively in the NBA is a concern. McDermott’s athletic limitations don’t preclude him from finding ways to effectively spot-up or even create his shot consistently, but it’s a tougher task to overcome the same limitations on defense.

There are plenty of elite shooters and scorers in the NBA who thrive despite being liabilities on the defensive end, although it is easier to hide or even utilize a physically overmatched wing in a team defense scheme than it is to accommodate for a limited frontcourt defender. David Lee of the Warriors is close to McDermott’s size, and his poor defense makes his value as a starter arguably a net loss despite his knack for scoring and rebounding, depending on how you value certain advanced metrics. Still, McDermott would be a huge success as a late lottery pick if his career paralleled that of Lee.

Whichever team selects McDermott will see whether he can continue to find ways to make his game work, taking a chance in the hopes that he will be able to produce somewhere north of 15 points per game in a best-case scenario. McDermott, a coach’s son, will no doubt work to make that team’s gamble worthwhile. Even in the case that he doesn’t pan out as a top-shelf NBA talent, there are greater risks than drafting an established shooter.

Prospect Profile: Tyler Ennis

March 31st, 2014 at 9:14pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Tyler Ennis didn’t look like a potential lottery pick at the beginning of the season. Nor was he considered likely to leave Syracuse after just one year, but last Thursday he did just that, and declared himself eligible for this June’s NBA Draft. While considered a Five-star recruit coming out of high school by 247 Sports’ composite rankings, Ennis’ ascent up the national ranks is a bit of a surprise. The Canadian native came into the year ranked no higher than the 20th-best prospect in his class by recruiting services, but since then the Syracuse point guard has swiftly changed opinions with clutch performances and poised point guard play.

Ennis, a second-team All-ACC selection, is considered a mid-to-late lottery pick. ESPN’s Chad Ford ranks him as the tenth-best player and third-best point guard in the 2014 class, behind Dante Exum and Marcus Smart. In current mock drafts, Draft Express has him going 14th, NBA Draft.net has him being taken 18th, and Bleacher Report has him going seventh. In February, an anonymous NBA general manager told Ford (Insider subscription required) he would take Ennis over Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving.

In 34 games he averaged 12.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 5.5 APG, and 2.1 SPG in 35.7 minutes per game. His slash line was .411/.353/.765.

Ennis has impressed scouts with maturity well beyond his age. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim consistently put the ball in his hands with the game on the line, and Ennis rewarded that faith. He made eight of his first nine shots and all 14 of his free throws during clutch situations to start the regular season, according to Chris Carlson of Syracuse.com.

Boeheim isn’t known to shower acclaim on his players, much less on freshmen, but has been quite vocal in his praise of Ennis this season. Boeheim said, “Tyler, for us, he’s so valuable. He plays 40 minutes in the [ACC games]. We can’t win a game without him. Literally. If you talk about the best pro prospect (in the ACC), it’s Jabari Parker, but who’s the most valuable to his team? We don’t have a point guard, I don’t know where we would be without Tyler Ennis.”

Scouts around the league often use the term, “feel for the game,” and Ennis has demonstrated plenty of that. He’s a smart ball-handler who works well within the framework of an offense, communicating with his teammates and keeping the ball moving. He’ll be the latest Boeheim product, following Michael Carter-Williams, who sees the court at an advanced level from the moment he steps on an NBA floor.

When looking at how his skills translate to the NBA game, Ennis’ ability to score off the pick-and-roll also stands out as being promising. Many point guards aren’t given enough trust within college-level offenses to create off the dribble, which slows their growth as they try to learn the nuances of an NBA attack. Roughly a third of Ennis’ possessions that ended in a shot attempt, turnover or foul, came as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, per Synergy Sports (subscription required).

Ennis is a pass-first point guard, and is as pure as they come at his position. That’s not to say he can’t put up points, but he chooses to score more as a secondary option, which is the more traditional mentality you want your point guard to operate with. It has been said that Ennis is too unselfish at times, and he doesn’t look to score as often as he should. The point guard position has changed over the years, and there aren’t many stars at the point who don’t score in volume.

One stat that jumps out is his 3.24 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s also 18th in the country with a pure point rating of 5.38, a metric devised to accurately weigh assists to turnovers relative to each other. “His assist-to-turnover ratio is almost comical,” said assistant coach Gerry McNamara. “His feel is as good as I’ve ever watched. I said that about Michael [Carter-Williams] last year. Tyler’s in that same realm. It’s difficult to speed him up. He plays at the pace that he wants to play at.”

As far as being a scorer, his shot consistency is a bit of an issue, but Ennis has range and projects as a good, if not elite shooter. He hit three-point jumpers at a 35.3% success rate and appeared more comfortable taking those shots at higher volumes as the season went along. He can also be quite deceptive. Ennis is able to gain separation for a jumper when you least expect it or find ways to avoid the contest at the rim and somehow finish around it. With a reliable stop-and-pop pull-up, Ennis can also be a threatening scorer off the dribble, even if he isn’t able to get to the rim. He has an assortment of runners, floaters and push shots he can make on the move successfully. Ennis might not evolve into a consistent scoring threat, but he can provide some points when the opportunity calls.

Defensively, Ennis might lack the size and strength to guard the larger NBA guards, but he certainly has the speed and the basketball intelligence. He led the ACC in steals, and was second in steal percentage at 3.9. Ennis was eighth in defensive win shares at 2.2. He doesn’t project as an elite defender, but should be an above average contributor.

Ennis’ game has been compared by Dick Vitale of ESPN to Jason Kidd‘s, although I don’t see him as having the same physical strength as Kidd. He’s also been compared favorably with Chris Paul. Paul is a quicker player, but Ennis has a similar ability to change directions to beat defenders and similar steal numbers for players of similar height and build. Paul was 6’0″, 175 pounds coming out, whereas Ennis is listed at 6’2″, 180 pounds. As a passer, Ennis actually has a higher assist percentage as a freshman than Paul did in his first season at Wake Forest. Defensively, Ennis sits just below Paul in steal percentage and steals per game, according to the article by Peter Bukowski at SI.com, who made the Paul comparisons.

Ennis might not become an All-Star level point guard, but he is almost certain to be a solid contributor. He offers plenty of intangibles and instincts that can’t be coached. From a character, toughness and stability standpoint, there’s not much to question. He never seems to get too high or too low, which is what you want from a floor general and potential team leader. The difficulty with teams gauging Ennis’ draft stock is that much of what he offers is in the way of intangibles. He might not wow scouts in pre-draft workouts, but watching Ennis on film, and appreciating all the subtle things he does on the court might tempt some teams to take him in the top ten. My best estimate is that he is the second point guard taken after Exum, and comes off the board in the six to ten range.

Prospect Profile: Noah Vonleh

March 30th, 2014 at 10:32am CST by Eddie Scarito

Underclassmen are expected to dominate the lottery of the upcoming 2014 NBA draft. On Monday, Indiana freshman Noah Vonleh officially announced his intention to be one of them. This will make Vonleh the first player under Tom Crean to leave Indiana for the NBA after his freshman season. The last Hoosier to be “one-and-done” was Eric Gordon back in 2007.

Vonleh’s decision to enter the draft was widely expected. The 2013 McDonalds All-American came to Bloomington with his eyes on joining the NBA, hoping to follow in the footsteps of Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo, two former Hoosiers who were selected in the top four of last year’s NBA draft. Only 18 years old and with the skills to play the three and four, Vonleh is expected to have plenty of teams interested in him leading up to the draft. In recent mock drafts, Draft Express has him being taken sixth, CBSSports.com has him fifth, HoopsHype has him going sixth, and he sits at #7 on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s “Big Board”.

Despite Indiana’s (17-15) struggles this season, Vonleh managed to shine, although he was never the focal point of the team’s offense. Vonleh was only utilized in 22% of his team’s offensive possessions. He averaged 11.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 0.6 APG, and 1.4 BPG in 26.5 minutes per game. His slash line was .523/.485/.716.

While being recruited, Vonleh was listed at 6’8” and only weighing anywhere from 210-215 pounds. At that point, most scouts were predicting that his most probable future position would either be at small or power forward, but after just one year at Indiana, he’s put on 30 pounds. and also grown two inches. Now, according to Draft Express, he’s 6’10” and weighs 242 pounds, and has a 7’3″ wingspan. He still projects as a power forward, but could play center for stretches against teams with smaller lineups.

One of Vonleh’s biggest strengths right now is rebounding. He averaged 9.0 RPG which led the Big 10. Thanks to his tremendous wingspan and athleticism, Vonleh is able to move out of his area to chase down a lot of balls, and he’s particularly good as an offensive rebounder. At this stage of his development many of his baskets come off of misses near the hoop. Another aspect of Vonleh’s game scouts are in love with is his hustle. He’s not afraid to hit the deck for a loose ball, and he’s a very unselfish and team-oriented player, which is sometimes rare for young, heralded prospects like him. He’s also known as a gym rat and responds well to coaching, both of which are required for young players to achieve their full-potential.

Vonleh also looks very promising on the defensive end. He’s not afraid to bang in the post, and he’s able to get a lot of blocks thanks to his size and hands. He also has a lot of potential as a perimeter defender because of his wingspan and quickness. Vonleh can defend about any frontcourt position effectively. His defensive win shares was 2.0, good for ninth in the Big Ten, and his defensive rating was 91.7, good for fourth in the conference.

Offensively, Vonleh is much more of a work in progress. He still needs to expand and improve his overall offensive arsenal if he wants to become an effective scorer in the NBA. Most of his baskets right now come down near the hoop on drive-and-dish plays or off of misses, which is where his offensive rebounding skills come into play. As of now, Vonleh doesn’t have a go-to post move, but this isn’t that unusual for a player of his youth. In high school, Vonleh spent a lot of time playing on the perimeter where he dominated on straight line-drives to the hoop. He has also shown some potential with his jump shot. His form and mechanics could use some refining, but with proper coaching and effort he could become a decent jump shooter in the near future. Vonleh has shown the ability to knock down three-pointers, converting on 16 of 33 attempts. It’s his inside-outside potential that could make him an offensive threat in the league.

Vonleh has the tools to play a significant role in the NBA for many years to come, but it will likely take a few years before he can accurately be gauged as to whether or not he has the skill-level, assertiveness and offensive upside needed to develop into a star. But his size, length, and rebounding prowess, coupled with the fact that he won’t turn 19 until late August, will almost certainly mean that a team with a lottery pick will be happy to select him and wait to see how he develops in the NBA. His ceiling has been said to be comparable to Chris Bosh or possibly Al Horford. If he can approach the production of either player, whichever team drafts him will consider it a pick well spent. My best estimate is that he is off the board before Julius Randle (profiled here), and is taken in the four to six range.

Prospect Profile: Jabari Parker

March 29th, 2014 at 3:54pm CST by Charlie Adams

Jabari Parker‘s season came to an abrupt end when Duke lost to Mercer in their opening matchup of the NCAA tournament. Despite the Blue Devils’ crushing early exit, executives around the league still see the explosive forward as a near lock to go in the top three of June’s exceptionally deep draft. DraftExpress has Parker going third in its mock draft, and he’s listed second on Chad Ford of ESPN.com’s Big Board. Certainly there’s been speculation that Parker’s might be the first named called come draft day, but the Kansas duo of Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins are generally seen as more likely candidates for the top overall selection.

While the consensus might be that he doesn’t look to have as high a ceiling as the freakishly athletic Wiggins, scouts who spoke to Ford are intrigued by Parker’s tantalizing offensive skill set and readiness to compete at the next level. He was the second-ranked recruit coming out of high school, and he didn’t disappoint in his freshman season at Duke. Parker led the Blue Devils in scoring and rebounding, averaging 19.1 points and 8.7 boards per contest while shooting an impressive 47.3% from the floor in the process. His ability to score stems from his high basketball IQ and desire to put up big numbers, but he’s not a selfish player by any means. He’s just capable of getting to the basket and finds a way to the hoop often. His size and speed allow him to get around less capable defenders, and his willingness to attack the basket resulted in an average of six free throws attempted per night.

Parker isn’t going to shoot the lights out, but he’s got good mechanics and can drain jumpers from all over the floor. He was prone to hot and cold shooting streaks during his freshman season, but scouts were impressed at his ability to switch up his game and attack the paint while his shot was struggling. Still, he’s been known to put up questionable mid-range heaves and will need to be more selective if he wants his game to translate to the next level. His excellent passing skills and impressive ball handling abilities are rare in a wing of his size and definitely contribute to his knack for getting out and making an impact in transition plays. ESPN.com lists his wingspan at 7’0″ (Insider piece).

Scouts were initially a bit alarmed when Parker’s numbers took a hit during the start of conference play, and his performance in the tournament has pundits questioning his ability to carry a team. At just 19 years old, Parker certainly has some growing up do, and he will need to get used to playing with elite competition since he struggled at times against longer, athletic opponents. Guys who can get around Parker were able to expose his less-than-stellar defensive abilities that caused Coach K to actually bench Parker in the late minutes of Duke’s loss to Mercer. It’s true that there are more athletic players in the draft class, but Parker can hold his own because of his high motor and thirst to score.

There’s been speculation throughout the season that Parker might return to school for his sophomore season, and earlier this month Parker still said he was undecided about whether or not he’d be declaring for the draft. Parker’s desire to play with Blue Devil recruit and former AAU teammate Jahlil Okafor might impact his decision, but it would be hard to pass up such a sure shot at going as a top three selection. While Parker hasn’t declared anything yet, an executive recently told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that he fully expects Parker to enter his name as an early entrant.

Parker has lived up to the hype at Duke and been able to prove he belongs in the elite prospect category. Neither Embiid nor Wiggins is as NBA-ready as Parker, and although those two figure to have greater potential, Parker is definitely more of a “sure thing.” This isn’t to say Parker doesn’t have a high ceiling himself, however, and certainly any team would consider itself lucky to land him in June’s draft. In fact, Parker would be a lock to go first overall most seasons. He can score in bunches and in a variety of ways, and while his defense is far from elite at this stage of his career, he has character and he’ll work to improve at the next level. NBADraft.net lists his pro comparison as Carmelo Anthony, which isn’t a bad level of talent to be associated with. In a class that might go down as one of the deepest groups in the history of the NBA, Parker has found a spot sitting comfortably near the top.

Prospect Profile Series

March 24th, 2014 at 12:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

There’s been an inordinate amount of attention paid to the 2014 draft class dating back to last June, and the focus will only sharpen as the time for teams to make their choices draws near. Hoops Rumors will continue to be on top of it all, and one of the ways we’ll cover the potentially franchise-altering event will be to take a closer look at many of the prospects in line to hear their names called on June 26th.

Our list of Prospect Profiles will continue to be updated in the weeks ahead as we build a comprehensive inventory of reports. They can be found anytime under “Hoops Rumors Features” on the right sidebar. The players we’ve profiled so far can be found below, sorted by their ranking on the DraftExpress list of top 100 prospects for 2014.

Andrew Wiggins, Kansas (SF)
Joel Embiid, Kansas (C)
Jabari Parker, Duke (SF)
Julius Randle, Kentucky (PF)
Dante Exum, Australia (PG)
Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State (PG)
Noah Vonleh, Indiana (PF)
Aaron Gordon, Arizona (PF)
Doug McDermott, Creighton (SF/PF)
Tyler Ennis, Syracuse (PG)
Gary Harris, Michigan State (SG)
Nik Stauskas, Michigan (SG)
James Young, Kentucky (SG)
T.J. Warren, North Carolina State (SF/PF)
Kyle Anderson, UCLA (PG)
Jerami Grant, Syracuse (SF/PF)
Rodney Hood, Duke (SF)
Cleanthony Early, Wichita State (SF/PF)
Shabazz Napier, Connecticut (PG)
Mitch McGary, Michigan (C)
Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee (PF)*
Josh Huestis, Stanford (SF)*
Justin Jackson, Cincinnati (F)*

*Includes player interview

Prospect Profile: Aaron Gordon

March 23rd, 2014 at 8:04pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Aaron Gordon entered this season at Arizona as one of the higher profile freshman in this year’s crop. Though he slipped out of the can’t-miss prospect category early in the season, it hasn’t changed the fact that he is an intriguing athletic talent, and an almost assured lottery pick. Gordon has been referred to as a “video-game” athlete capable of making plays that nobody else can, a quality that hints at him becoming a potential future star in the NBA. He currently is ranked No. 7 on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big board, and is sitting at No. 8 in the latest mock draft by Draft Express, and No. 19 in NBA Draft.net‘s. This illustrates just how divisive his potential is amongst scouts.

Gordon, in 34 games, has averaged 12.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.9 BPG in 30.9 minutes per contest, and hasn’t “wowed” scouts like many expected. He was promised to play the small forward position this season by coach Sean Miller and has spent most of his time there. The problem is that Gordon hasn’t shown he can really shoot the ball from deep effectively. His slash line is .481/.308/.435. Some NBA scouts have pegged him as one of those “dreaded tweeners.” Gordon has displayed the ability to handle the ball often and pass well, which can make him effective in the right system.

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, this 18 year-old has the height and athleticism to play power forward, but scouts question if he possesses the strength to do it successfully for long stretches, and over 82 games. Some have likened him to last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett. Like Bennett, Gordon is a combo forward, which is a polite way of saying that he lacks a natural position. He doesn’t have a traditional small-forward’s body or game, and isn’t the interior power player you typically get with NBA 4s.

Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report points out that not many recent first-round combo forwards have been successful—or at least they haven’t made a positive impression early on. He cites Bennett, Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams, combo forwards who went No. 2 in their respective drafts, or even Thomas Robinson, a No. 5 pick, as examples of these types of players that have struggled to break through the barrier and find success in the NBA.

Offensively, Gordon has struggled this season. According to Matt Moore of CBSSports.com, Gordon is in the 12th percentile for jump shots, 15th percentile in post-up situations, and 13th percentile in offensive putbacks. That last category is the biggest concern, opines Moore. You can improve your jump shot and post game with hard work and coaching. But someone with Gordon’s wingspan and athleticism should be producing more points on putbacks. Much of what he seems to struggle with is how short his jumps are on both inside attempts and offensive rebounds, based on little to no power being spent from this legs, according to the article. Moore does believe that can be corrected through mechanics or building up core and leg muscle in the NBA.

Gordon is a decent spot-up shooter, as his three-point percentage in a small number of attempts indicates, but his value in pick-and-roll situations is limited to roll-only offense, opines Peter Bukowski of SI.com. He hasn’t demonstrated the shooting skill to be effective in pick-and-pop situations, the article observes. Gordon is actually a solid dribble-drive player, but teams don’t have to play him for the shot, so they can give him space while not biting on any shot fakes. When he gets into the paint though, Gordon is a beast. He can elevate and dunk over defenders, or simply lay it in, as he is a strong finisher. He has phenomenal body control that allows him to use his great length and 40-plus vertical in traffic to score. In this regard he has been compared to Blake Griffin, though he doesn’t have Griffin’s overpowering strength. It also doesn’t help Gordon’s overall production that he is a terrible free throw shooter.

He has been excellent defensively, ranking No. 2 in the Pac-12 in defensive wins shares (3.0), which estimates the number of wins a player contributes to his team due to defense. With quick feet and long arms, defense might actually carry over as a strength for Gordon, something few college combo forwards can make a claim to in the NBA, according to the article by Wasserman. Draft Express’ Mike Schmitz said of Gordon, “He gives you so many things that coaches love. I think he might be the most versatile defenders in the country. His feet are so quick. He works really hard to contest shots, he covers so much ground. He’s just a smart, intelligent kid. Defensively, he’ll be able to get on the floor right away.”

Arizona coach Sean Miller also weighed in, saying, “I’ve never had such a young player be so locked in and capable on the defensive end. While it’s hard to argue that an NBA should draft a lockdown defender so high in such a loaded draft, the thought is Gordon’s offensive skillset has only scratched the surface. He guards multiple players each game. In Aaron’s case, he plays the low post, against a post player, and then he turns around and guards perimeter players. I can say that I don’t think any that I’ve coached have been successful as a freshman doing that.”

Aaron Gordon is an intriguing NBA prospect, but is also a big risk based on not having a well-defined NBA position. He doesn’t have the offensive game yet to be a starting small forward, and isn’t strong enough to be an every-game power forward. Athletically he compares favorably with Griffin and Kenneth Faried, but lacks their strength and bulk. Gordon is still a teenager, and he has a sturdy frame, so he should be able to add muscle. But if it affects his overall athleticism, it would produce diminishing returns. He has a wealth of upside, but he’s an extremely risky top ten pick in such a deep draft. In my opinion, Gordon could benefit greatly from another year in school, but the lure of the NBA will be too tempting for him. Despite all his flaws, I still see him being taken in the 7-12 range.

Prospect Profile: Julius Randle

March 23rd, 2014 at 10:30am CST by Eddie Scarito

Julius Randle has looked like a man amongst boys during much of his first season at Kentucky. While he didn’t enter his freshman year with quite the same hype that surrounded Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker, Randle nevertheless was seen as a potential top three pick in the upcoming 2014 NBA draft. Randle has had a strong, but inconsistent season, and though he is still projected as an early lottery pick, scouts are concerned he might not have a defined position in the NBA. Randle is currently ranked No. 5 on Chad Ford of ESPN‘s Big Board, Draft Express has him being take fourth in their latest mock draft, and NBA Draft.net has him slotted in at No. 7 overall.

On a talented Kentucky team Randle was more often than not their best player on the floor. His numbers on the season were strong. In 32 games he averaged 15.1 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, and 0.8 BPG in 30.7 minutes per game. His slash line is .504/.188/.702. Good numbers, but not as dominant as some thought he would be upon entering college.

Randle’s value is as an offensive player, though his offensive game at the NCAA level is mostly considered “bully ball”. He is stronger than most of his college peers and can physically dominate them when trying to put the ball in the basket. His superior strength works against most teams, but it can also lead to forced shots and turnovers. Randle is actually coughing it up 3.2 times a game, an awfully high number for a big man. This is mainly because he tends to recklessly attack defenses by trying to plow his way through them. He uses his natural left hand and can take any contact when hit to finish, but isn’t as confident when using his right.

One of the biggest complaints against Randle’s offensive game is that he doesn’t play on the box as much as he should, and is far too perimeter oriented. He needs to focus more on refining his post game which will be what will make or break him as a pro. Randle settles for too many jumpers at times instead of imposing his will inside. He’s shown enough ability on the block however to suggest he will continue to improve his game down there. He reminds me of Derrick Coleman when he first came into the league in this regard. Randle’s jump shot isn’t ugly by any means, and looks like it should improve with time, but it just might be his biggest weakness offensively. He has no problem taking his man off the dribble when using a pump fake, but if his outside shot ever becomes a reliable weapon, Randle could become a scoring star.

Randle hasn’t made much of an impact on the defensive end, which can probably be attributed to a combination of short arms and below-average awareness. Whether Randle ever evolves into a true 4 or becomes a combo forward like Lamar Odom, defense does not project as one of his strengths at the next level. Randle may have some trouble contesting the big leapers and towering big men in the NBA. He’s not an above the rim type player, and relies on strength more than athleticism when defending. Randle averaged 0.5 SPG and 0.8 BPG, which is poor production for a big man. Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (insider subscription required) has found that block and steal rates in college are important tools when projecting big men prospects.

One major physical trait that is the most talked about as a negative regarding Randle is his wingspan. He has been called a “T-Rex” thanks to his big body and short arms. He has a 6’11” wingspan, per Draft Express, which is enormous in most contexts, but not the “super-sized world” of the NBA. When matched up against the best power forwards in the league, he’s going to have a significant length disadvantage, a problem that could impact his game on both sides of the ball. According to Jonathan Tjarks of SB Nation, in almost any basketball context, having longer arms than your opponent is helpful. Athletes with longer arms can shoot over the top of defenders more effectively. On defense, they can play a step farther back and still contest shots, and will also have an easier time reaching for rebounds and getting hands in passing lanes. The closer you get to the basket, where there is less room to maneuver, the more important this becomes.

The final verdict on Randle is that he is an extremely unique prospect due to his combination of size (6’9″ 240 pounds), strength, scoring instincts and ball-handling skills. It’s rare to find players with his skill-set, at any level of competition, which makes him an intriguing draft candidate. He has a lot of work to do, on the defensive end in particular, but he’s clearly a top-notch prospect for the NBA. His ceiling as a pro seems to compare favorably with Zach Randolph‘s, which would make him worthy of a top ten selection in the upcoming draft. His final ranking will depend on which underclassmen declare for the draft, as well as how his pre-draft workouts fare in assuaging teams worrying about his shorter wingspan. My prediction is he goes within the top five picks.

Prospect Profile: Marcus Smart

March 21st, 2014 at 8:39pm CST by Eddie Scarito

What a difference one season can make. If Marcus Smart would have entered last year’s draft he would have been in the discussion for the first overall pick. He had earned Big 12 Player of the Year honors and was seen as the top player in an otherwise underwhelming draft class. Instead, Smart opted to return to Oklahoma State for another season, and now finds himself unlikely to even be the first point guard to come off the board.

Back in April of last year when he announced his choice, Smart said, “There’s a lot of speculation going. I’ve been bashed and criticized that I probably made a mistake of coming back here, the NBA will be there, I should have took it, and this year’s draft class is much weaker than next year’s. But I think I made the right decision. All that was telling me, from those people that said that, is they don’t have confidence in my ability and my game to compete with those players next year. You guys have given me that confidence to do that, so I chose to stay here. I’m aware of how much money I am giving up.”

Smart’s sophomore numbers have remained mostly in line with his freshman production. He did raise his shooting percentage slightly, from .404 to .425, which helped him increase his scoring average, but everything else is nearly identical. This can be looked at a couple of ways. The positive spin is that he has shown remarkable consistency in his game and proved last season was no fluke. The negative perspective would be that he hasn’t shown much growth offensively in his second year. Smart’s season stats are 17.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, and 2.8 SPG in 32.5 minutes per contest. His slash line is .425/.302/.736. His career numbers are 16.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.4 APG, and 2.9 SPG over 33.0 minutes. His career slash line is .414/.297/.756.

Shooting is the main aspect of Smart’s game that he will need to continue to improve on in order to become a more effective offensive player at the next level. He has solid form and looks to have good overall mechanics, but he is just not a consistent shooter at this stage in his development. He is a 30.3% spot-up shooter, 22% coming off of screens, and in isolation he shoots 30.8% from the field, according to NBA Draft Insider.com. Part of the issue is that Smart displays poor shot selection, which has been criticized during his college career. Smart would be better served to stop settling for long-range jump shots and to instead take better advantage of his explosiveness by driving to the basket more. He has shown a slight improvement in this area, raising his free throw attempts per game from 6.5 his freshman season to 7.7 this year.

Smart has the capability of playing either of the guard positions, but he’s spent most of his career at point guard. As a playmaker Smart is an excellent passer within the flow of an offense, but creating for teammates off the dribble isn’t his specialty. Smart is a score-first point guard. He’s also rates as just an average ball-handler, but he has improved in that area this season, cutting his turnovers from 3.4 to 2.5 per game.

His build is NBA ready, and at 6’4″, 220 pounds, he will be able to compete physically in the league right away. With his size and strength Smart is able to defend multiple positions. He has good body control and moves well with his man on or off the ball. When guarding ball-handlers he has shown quick hands that he uses to bother his man and force turnovers. When defending off the ball he tracks the ball well, gets in passing lanes to make plays, and applies timely double-teams to force turnovers. It is as a defender that Smart has the most immediate value in the NBA. His 3.4 steals per 40 minutes shows just how active a player he is on the defensive end. Smart has to use his basketball IQ and strength to his advantage as he isn’t the fastest player, and he may struggle against some of the quicker guards in the league.

Smart has shown flashes of immaturity during his time at Oklahoma State. There was an incident where he kicked a chair out of frustration during a game against West Virginia, which was a relatively minor flare-up. The major incident occurred a few weeks later during a game versus Texas Tech, when Smart pushed a vocal Red Raiders fan. The fan reportedly used a racial slur toward Smart, but the NCAA still suspended the point guard for three contests. “Unfortunately for Smart, there is going to be a fallout after this,” an NBA executive told Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports. “His reputation has taken a hit. That is all people and the media are going to want to talk about with him before and after the draft. Some teams won’t want to deal with that.” Yet when asked if the push affects Smart’s draft stock, an NBA GM told Spears that his decline on draft boards was solely because of concerns about his game.

NBA teams have shown a willingness to overlook incidents like these in lieu of talent. Smart also just turned 20 years old on March 6th, and he has plenty of time to mature. Based on recent mock drafts, Smart is still projected to be a top-10 pick. NBADraft.net has him being taken fourth, Draft Express has him sixth, and Smart also currently sits sixth on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big Board.

While he doesn’t have the unlimited raw athleticism of some of the other prospects in this draft, Smart’s strength and explosiveness coupled with his understanding of the game should assure him of being drafted in the middle of the lottery. There are no questions about his drive or overall skill set, but he’ll have to significantly improve his outside shot to be a star at the next level. Smart will also have to show he has matured and developed a thicker skin to quiet down any talk of him being a risky selection. Scouts have compared his game to Baron Davis and Jason Kidd‘s, and Draft Insider.com has projected his “ceiling” as Dwyane Wade and his “basement” as Marcus Banks. His ability to defend both guard positions will make him valuable, and that should guarantee him a roster spot for years, but if he can’t improve his outside shooting, he won’t achieve greatness at the next level.

Prospect Profile: Andrew Wiggins

March 17th, 2014 at 8:01pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Few players have entered their freshman season as hyped as Andrew Wiggins. Before he even set foot inside Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas, the media was anointing Wiggins as the next LeBron James, regardless of the fact that James never played one game at the collegiate level. That’s a tough pedigree for any young player to have to live up to, especially when his personality and game is so much different from James’. It’s turned out to be an up-and-down season for Wiggins, who just turned 19 last month, but he’s been playing his best basketball down the stretch and has regained his spot as the top-ranked player in the upcoming NBA draft. He’s currently ranked first in updated mock drafts at Draft Express and CBSSports.com, and he tops Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s big board.

The criticisms of his game and his production have been harsh and unforgiving at times, much harsher than the freshman deserves. After his first game in a Jayhawk uniform, a night that saw him score 16 points, his performance was deemed merely “adequate.” Those critiques continued as the season progressed and Wiggins has been called everything from “disappointing” to “underwhelming.”

Wiggins’ performance has been somewhat of a roller coaster ride, as he’s highly effective one night and comes up soft the next. NBA scouts have complained that he lacks a killer instinct, or desire to be the “alpha” on the court, and has been knocked for being too deferential to his teammates. Wiggins has been unselfish almost to a fault at times, and he has seemed hesitant to attack the basket and make the most of his great finishing abilities. He can be too willing to crank up shots from the perimeter, which lowers his overall production and efficiency. Even when he does take it strong to the rim, Wiggins tends to settle for lower percentage shots. He has also shown a tendency to pull up his dribble too soon and take to the air too far from the hoop, resulting in pull-up jumpers, runners, or scoop shots, rather than use his outstanding vertical to dunk or draw fouls.

One of the big questions about Wiggins entering college was whether he would exhibit the assertiveness to try to take over games on a regular basis against both elite and average competition. At Huntington Prep School, he often showed his immense potential and had some monster games. But there were other times when his coaches had to try different ways to motivate him, because he could seem complacent against competition that he deemed beneath him.

Wiggins’ numbers on the year are solid but not spectacular. He’s averaged 17.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, and 1.2 SPG in 32.6 minutes per contest. His slash line is .449/.350/.768. His highest scoring output was when he dropped 41 points on West Virginia, but he has failed to reach double figures in five contests, including a season-low three points on only five shots versus Oklahoma State.

Some scouts have compared him to Rudy Gay. His greatest strengths are his quick first step, superior athleticism, and long, gliding stride, all of which should make him an offensive threat at the next level. He stands 6’8″, but he has a 6’11” wingspan, and though he’s a bit thin, he can add muscle to his 200-pound frame as he matures. Wiggins has a good outside shot but is a streaky shooter. His favorite area on the floor is the corner, where he likes to spot up or cut along the baseline for lobs. He’s shown the ability to create separation off the dribble for pull-up jumpers, but this will be more difficult to accomplish against the larger and more physical defenders in the NBA. Wiggins also has displayed good court vision, and he’s an able and willing passer.

The weaknesses in Wiggins’ game are his inconsistent motor and tendency to drift at times. Wiggins isn’t a physical player, which will make guarding small forwards difficult, and because of this he projects more as a shooting guard. His lack of strength also affects his ability to be a productive rebounder. But at only 19, he has plenty of room to improve in this area. He’s still unrefined as a ball-handler, and sometimes he has trouble against aggressive ball pressure. Scouts have also noted that he has difficulty converting on drives to his left.

The final verdict on Wiggins is that he is an extremely athletic prospect with loads of potential. He has shown remarkable improvement during the course of his freshman season, and there is no reason to think that he won’t be a successful pro. He needs to become more of an aggressive player if he wants to reach superstar level, but playing against NBA-caliber talent every night should keep him motivated. He has handled all the hype and criticism very well, which shows a maturity beyond his age. If Wiggins continues his hot play in the NCAA tournament, he will further solidify his standing at the top of the draft rankings. He is guaranteed to be a top-three pick, and no one will be surprised if he is taken first overall.

Prospect Profile: Otto Porter

May 26th, 2013 at 12:12pm CST by Chuck Myron

When most fans got their last glimpse of Otto Porter, he shot just 5 for 17 as his No. 2 seed Georgetown team endured an upset to little-known FGCU, the school that became the darling of this year's NCAA Tournament. I'm a resident of "Dunk City" who saw FGCU's top-level athleticism in person, and that loss shouldn't be considered as much of an indictment of the Hoyas, and Porter in particular, as it seemed at the time. Indeed, Porter still managed to grab a team-high 11 rebounds, illustrating his abilities as an outsized, 6'9" small forward with a 7'1.5" wingspan.

Porter's surge from a lightly recruited high schooler to a sought-after NBA prospect has continued in the months since his college career ended. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com, Chad Ford of ESPN.com and Aran Smith of NBADraft.net all have him slotted at No. 3 in their respective rankings and mock drafts, and he appears to have an outside shot to go No. 1 overall. That's heady territory for a player who doesn't possess elite athleticism and had trouble when matched against others who do. Still, there isn't a player in this draft without a significant flaw, and the improvements Porter made this season look like they were enough to convince teams he's worth the sort of pick usually spent on someone who can make more spectacular plays.

The sophomore entered the season having scored just 9.7 points per game in 2011/12 on a Georgetown team that limited his offensive opportunities. His shots and scoring increased markedly this year, particularly after Greg Whittington, the team's second leading scorer at the time, was ruled academically ineligible in January. Porter wound up notching 16.2 PPG, much of which came as a result of his improved stroke from behind the three-point arc. He nailed 42.2% of his three-point attempts this season after hitting just 22.6% as a freshman. Porter made 1.4 three pointers a game and didn't shy away from contact, either, attempting 5.1 free throws per contest. The offense at Georgetown encouraged ball movement, allowing Porter to show off his passing abilities, and he handled the ball much better this year than last.

Porter's long arms and attentiveness make up for his athletic shortcomings on defense, and while he's skilled on that end of the floor, he's probably not an elite NBA defender. That's despite averages of 1.8 steals and 0.9 blocks per game this year, relatively impressive numbers for a small forward. Perhaps his most eye-popping number is his 7.5 rebounds per game, another stat influenced by his lengthy frame. He's skinny, weighing in at 198 pounds, so a team may give up some position inside if it wants to spot him minutes as a small-ball power forward. Yet if clubs aren't shying away from center Nerlens Noel, who's just eight pounds heavier, they won't hesitate to pick Porter.

The Cavs, who pick first overall, seem to be high on Porter, and might trade down to take him if they don't want to reach for him at No. 1. The Magic, picking second, won't be shy to collect all the assets they can, but they already have a pair of young small forwards in Maurice Harkless and Tobias Harris. The Wizards, at No. 3, could take their local college star and pair him on the wing with Bradley Beal. The Bobcats took small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with the second pick last year, but if Porter is there at No. 4, they'd have to consider him for their talent-starved roster. The Suns need help just about everywhere, so if Porter slips to No. 5, I doubt Phoenix passes him up.

A trade involving a top-five pick is as likely this year as any, so there could be other teams in play for the David Falk client. Like nearly every top draft prospect, he's most likely destined for a rebuilding team, and without jaw-dropping natural abilities, Porter will be hard-pressed to single-handedly turn around a team's fortunes. He may be best suited for a club with patience and a long-term plan, like the Magic and Suns, rather than a team looking to turn the corner next season, as the Cavs and Wizards are.