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Where Traded Draft Picks Would Land If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 9:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.

Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.

With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.

First round:

Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
New York Knicks (from Clippers)
Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)

Notes:

The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.

Second round:

Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
New York Knicks (from Hornets)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
Boston Celtics (from Nets)
Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)

Notes:

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.

What 2020 Lottery Odds Would Look Like If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.

It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.

Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.

With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.

For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC*	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NOP*	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
POR	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.

Hiatus Notes: Revenue, G League, Warriors, Kings

March 13th, 2020 at 8:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The league could lose nearly $500MM in ticket revenue if the remainder of the season is not played out, Tom Haberstroh of NBC Sports Philadelphia estimates. Using an unnamed high-ranking league official as a source, Haberstroh relays that the NBA makes an average of $1.2MM in gate revenue per regular season game and $2MM for each playoff game. There were 259 regular-season games remaining, a loss of approximately $300MM in ticket revenue. With 83 postseason games played on average, the league would lose $166MM in postseason revenue.

The loss of basketball-related income could actually total near the $500MM for the regular season alone, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. That would directly affect the salary cap and luxury tax for next season. However, a resumption of the season with fans in attendance could mitigate and eliminate those potential financial losses, Marks adds.

We have more regarding the suspension of NBA games:

G League players will be paid as contracted and receive benefits, league expert Adam Johnson tweets. The remainder of the NBAGL season has already been suspended, with Johnson suggesting it may be canceled entirely. The G League’s regular season had been scheduled to end on March 28, with the postseason to follow.
Warriors staffers will work from home for at least the next two weeks, Nick Friedell of ESPN tweets. Their players will be allowed to work out individually inside the team’s facility but it’s not a requirement.
The Kings have suspended all team activities through Monday, according to a team press release. The players will remain in the Sacramento area but will not participate in group workouts or practices. No Kings players have experienced symptoms of COVID-19.

Antetokounmpo, Griffin, Williamson To Help Arena Workers

March 13th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bucks forward and reigning Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and his family are donating $100K to Fiserv Forum staff members to help them weather the financial storm during the league’s suspension of play, according to his Twitter account.

Antetokounmpo is following the lead of the Cavaliers’ Kevin Love, who pledged a similar amount to arena employees in Cleveland. The Pistons’ Blake Griffin is making the same donation to workers at Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena, according to the Detroit News’ Rod Beard.

Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson is pledging to cover the salaries for all of their arena staff workers for the next 30 days, Shams Charania of The Athletic tweets.

Numerous teams have come forward to say that they’ll keep their employees on the payroll during the stoppage as well as compensate full-time and part-time staff who work their games. However, many other workers in these arenas, such as security guards and concession workers, are often employed by other companies. The players donations would presumably provide assistance to those workers.

The Pistons added their name to the list of teams that will compensate workers on Thursday, according to the Detroit Free Press. The Wizards did the same, Candace Bucker of the Washington Post tweets. The Kings have also stepped forward, according to James Ham of NBC Sports, The Trail Blazers are formulating a plan to pay their part-time arena employees for the team’s nine remaining home games and will reassess the program in 30 days, Jason Quick of The Athletic tweets.

Rockets CEO Tad Brown vowed to make sure their employees would “take care of our part-time employees as well as all of our employees,” Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle relays.

The Mavericks, Hawks, Cavaliers, and Nets have already stated their intentions to provide financial support to employees and arena workers.

League Office “Slammed” With Questions About Next Steps

March 12th, 2020 at 8:22am CST by Luke Adams

After announcing that the 2019/20 season has been suspended indefinitely, the NBA’s league office has been “slammed” with procedural and “bigger-picture” questions from team owners and executives, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

As Wojnarowski reports, the NBA has told its teams to be patient and sit tight for now — more guidance will be provided soon, likely as early as Thursday. In the meantime, despite the fact that clubs are reportedly still permitted to hold practices, many teams around the league plan to close their facilities today and give players a couple days away, Woj notes.

The Jazz, whose starting center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, have been among the teams most significantly affected by the crisis. As ESPN’s Royce Young details, Utah’s players and staff had to remain at Oklahoma City’s Chesapeake Energy Arena for hours after the postponement of last night’s game vs. the Thunder, undergoing tests for coronavirus. The results of those tests should be known soon, which will help the NBA determine how to move forward, tweets Chris Mannix of SI.com.

After finally leaving the arena late last night, the Jazz spent the night in the OKC area, exploring the possibility of chartering buses to get back to Salt Lake City, since there were “issues” with putting everyone on a Delta charter flight, per ESPN. According to Young (Twitter link), the organization is expected to finalize travel plans after getting the results of their tests. It’s possible they’ll fly back to Utah on two separate charter flights — one for those who tested positive and one for those who didn’t.

Here are more updates on the situation as the first day of the league’s hiatus begins:

Sources tell Shams Charania and Tony Jones of The Athletic that Gobert has been around people who recently traveled to the U.S. from France, but there’s “no clear determination” on how he contracted COVID-19.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps break down what we do and don’t know about the NBA’s suspension of play, including whether players will be paid during the stoppage and how it may affect the salary cap going forward. Meanwhile, Brian Lewis of The New York Post provides six questions the league must answer.
By suspending its season, the NBA made the only decision it could, according to Chris Mannix of SI.com, who writes that the league shouldn’t consider a return until the virus has been “contained nationally.”
The Pelicans/Kings game on Wednesday night was initially expected to be played even after the NBA’s suspension announcement, but it was eventually postponed due to concerns related to referee Courtney Kirkland, who worked Utah’s game on Monday. Sam Amick, Will Guillory, and Jason Jones of The Athletic share some behind-the-scenes details on a surreal night in Sacramento.
Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, who said on Wednesday night that the franchise would develop a plan to help arena employees with lost income during the hiatus, said that the situation “isn’t about basketball,” as Tim MacMahon of ESPN relays. “This isn’t about when do we start, do we start? Or how do we start? This is a pandemic, a global pandemic where people’s lives are at stake,” Cuban said. “I’m a lot more worried about my kids and my mom who is 82 years old — in talking to her and telling her to stay in the house — than when we play in our next game.”

Pelicans-Kings Contest Postponed

March 11th, 2020 at 9:43pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA has postponed Wednesday night’s Pelicans–Kings contest after initially stating that it would suspend the season once that game concluded, the Pelicans have confirmed.

One of the referees in the contest was Courtney Kirkland, who was on duty during the Jazz-Raptors game on Monday. The Kings were ready to go on the court at the time of the scheduled tip-off, while the Pelicans were pushing hard for the game not to be played, as Sam Amick of The Athletic tweets.

Earlier in the evening, Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus and the Jazz-Thunder game was postponed. Teams that have been in contact with the Jazz and Gobert in recent days are likely to get tested as soon as possible.

The NBA’s Board of Governors had a conference call earlier today to discuss ways to handle the pandemic. Several teams were open to the idea of postponing all contests while many were in favor of playing without fans in the arena. The Warriors had planned to host the first game without fans on Thursday night at the Chase Center, but that game – like the rest, starting tomorrow – will no longer be played as scheduled.

Poll: Which Team Is Biggest Threat To All-L.A. Western Finals?

March 11th, 2020 at 2:43pm CST by Luke Adams

In a roundtable discussion at ESPN.com, five writers were asked whether the Nuggets represent the biggest threat to derail a potential Lakers/Clippers showdown in the Western Conference Finals this spring. Of the five respondents, only Royce Young said yes, pointing to the “matchup nightmare” that Nikola Jokic represents, as well as Denver’s ability to both score and defend when the team is firing on all cylinders.

The other four ESPN reporters and analysts who participated in the roundtable weren’t quite as bullish on the Nuggets. Kevin Pelton identified Houston as a more realistic challenger, arguing that the Rockets‘ ability to play with quickness and space the floor makes them the team best suited to match up with the Lakers in a Western playoff series. Tim MacMahon suggested that the Rockets, despite some inconsistency, have the highest ceiling of any non-L.A. team.

Although MacMahon had praise for Houston, he and Kirk Goldsberry made a pick that would have been shocking six months ago, arguing that the Thunder are actually the most legitimate threat to an all-L.A. Western Finals. Goldsberry, who point out that Oklahoma City’s 29-10 record since December 15 is the West’s best during that stretch, also observed that the clutch-time lineup of Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams has the best stats of any five-man unit in the NBA, outscoring opponents by 30 points per 100 possessions.

The Jazz, who are currently the No. 4 seed in the West, didn’t get quite as much love from ESPN’s panel, but Pelton and Young both identified Utah as the non-Lakers team that may match up best with the Clippers in a seven-game series.

The Mavericks probably aren’t ready to seriously challenge the Lakers or Clippers yet, but they may get a shot to upset the Clips in round one. Meanwhile, whichever team claims the No. 8 seed is on track for a matchup with the Lakers. Could any teams from the group of candidates that includes the Pelicans, Grizzlies, Kings, Spurs, or Trail Blazers realistically push LeBron James and Anthony Davis?

We want to know what you think. Which Western Conference team is the best bet to play spoiler and knock off one of the Los Angeles teams in the first two rounds, preventing a WCF showdown?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Center Spot Suddenly Crowded

March 10th, 2020 at 9:34pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Kings rookie guard Justin James received a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection on Tuesday to treat patellar tendinitis in his right knee, according to a team press release. An update regarding his status will be provided in 1-2 weeks. A second-round pick out of Wyoming, James has appeared in 34 NBA games, averaging 2.5 PPG in 6.4 MPG. His most recent appearance was a two-minute stint on Saturday.

With the return of Richaun Holmes from a shoulder injury, the Kings now have three viable options to center, Akis Yerocostas of the Sacramento Bee points out. Harry Giles and Alex Len performed well in his absence and have also earned playing time. It’s likely Holmes will see the majority of the minutes barring injury or foul trouble, Yerocostas continues, with Len and Giles splitting the bench minutes depending upon whether the Kings need more size and defense (Len) or more offense (Giles).

Still No Return Timetable For Marvin Bagley

March 10th, 2020 at 6:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As the Kings continue to push for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, there’s no indication that Marvin Bagley‘s return is imminent. The team issued a press release today announcing that Bagley continues to recover from a left midfoot sprain and is doing some on-court running and skill work. Sacramento provided no specific timeline for the big man, simply saying that updates will be provided “as appropriate.”

De’Aaron Fox Is Latest To Oppose Empty Arenas

March 10th, 2020 at 10:25am CST by Arthur Hill

As coronavirus becomes a growing concern in the sports world, Kings guard De’Aaron Fox is the latest NBA player to speak out against the idea of having games in empty arenas, writes Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee.

The league sent a memo to its teams last week listing that as a possibility if the outbreak continues to worsen. A conference call has been set for Wednesday with team owners and governors to discuss all the options being considered.

“I think I’d definitely rather postpone games than play with no fans,” Fox said. “That’s why you have a home court. That’s a part of most sports, having homecourt advantage or going into a hostile environment. That’s a part of the game. Without fans, it’s not the same game.”

LeBron James expressed similar sentiments over the weekend, calling it “impossible” to imagine games without fans present.

Sacramento coach Luke Walton tells Anderson the team is taking action to protect players and make sure they’re informed about the virus. Precautionary measures are in place to prevent the spread of germs at Golden 1 Center, including more hand-sanitizing stations.

“We’ve brought in doctors to talk to the team. We’ve showed them videos,” Walton said. “… The NBA is really good at player and fan safety always being at the forefront of what they do, so there’s constantly communication going on between all of our organizations and the NBA.”

There’s more on the virus and its impact on basketball:

Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious-disease expert at UC Berkeley, tells Ethan Strauss of The Athletic that it’s unwise for sporting events to continue under current conditions. “I think large gatherings of people in closed environments in the case of a pandemic is not prudent,” he said. “It’s the perfect way to spread the virus.” Five new cases were reported Monday in San Francisco, bringing the city’s total to 13. Nearby Santa Clara County has banned gatherings of more than 1,000 people for the rest of the month, which will affect three home games for the NHL’s San Jose Sharks.
Associated Press Sports Editors has issued a statement opposing the locker room ban on media announced Monday by the NBA and three other North American sports leagues. “While we understand the gravity of the coronavirus outbreak and the need to contain it, such action is worthy of dialogue to come up with proper solutions to protect public health, allow media to inform the public and do our jobs properly,” the statement reads. “APSE joins writers’ groups in all leagues in objecting to this ban and welcomes discussions with the leagues to come to a reasonable resolution.”
The coronavirus continues to cause havoc with overseas schedules. No fans will be permitted at today’s playoff game in Spain between San Pablo Burgos and Banco di Sardegna Sassari, according to Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. Thursday’s EuroLeague game between Olympiacos and AX Armani Exhchange Milano will take place behind closed doors after the league denied Olympiacos’ request to postpone the contest or play it at a neutral site (Twitter link). Maccabi Tel Aviv will impose a limit of 5,000 fans for its next two home games (Twitter link).