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Latest On The NBA’s Lottery Plans

June 3rd, 2020 at 9:13pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA is expected to finalize a proposal on Thursday that will send 22 teams to Orlando in order to finish out the season. It will be a unique experience for a number of reasons — one interesting wrinkle will be how the league determines the lottery odds for 2020 without all of the clubs playing the same number of games.

The Warriors, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Hawks, Pistons, Knicks, Bulls, and Hornets will likely be locked into the top eight lottery slots, a source tells Hoops Rumors. The order within the top eight has yet to be determined, but the structure means the Wizards couldn’t go 0-8 this summer when the season resumes and land a better position in the lottery than those teams that won’t be playing.

It’s “part of the tradeoff” for the franchises that won’t be given a chance to resume their campaigns, per the source. Another scenario discussed was freezing the lottery as it stands, allowing no movement up or down by any team, even those in the 9-14 positions. Either way, the top eight are expected to be assured of their standing.

Both the lottery and the combine had been postponed indefinitely, though they are now expected to take place in August. Nothing is finalized as of this writing, including the proposal to return.

Here’s a look at the odds of each lottery position as well as the order of teams, should the league go with the current standings:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
WSH* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
PHX* 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
SAS* 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
SAC** 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 – – – – – – – 86.1 7.6 0.1
NO** 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 – – – – – – – – 92.0 2.3
POR* 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

*Will play eight more regular season games

** The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped if the NBA ends up freezing the standings to determine the lottery’s order.

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NBA Expected To Approve 22-Team Return-To-Play Format

June 3rd, 2020 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

11:25am: The NBA’s Board of Governors is expected to approve Silver’s plan on Thursday, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

10:00am: When he meets with the NBA’s Board of Governors on Thursday, commissioner Adam Silver intends to propose a return-to-play plan that will see 22 teams resume their seasons, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.

The NBA reportedly discussed proposals involving 16, 20, 22, or 30 teams last week, with that 22-team format gaining increased support. Although the ownership groups from teams like the Hawks and Bulls expressed a desire to participate, per Charania, the plan will exclude them and the rest of the NBA’s bottom-eight teams in order to limit – to some extent – the number of people the league will have to bring into its “bubble” in Orlando.

As Charania details, the 22-team format would bring back the 16 current playoff teams, along with six additional clubs who are within six games of a postseason spot (the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards).

The plan would see those 22 clubs play eight regular season games apiece, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link), before a play-in tournament is held for the eighth seed. The play-in format would be as follows, per Charania:

  • If the No. 9 seed is more than four games behind the No. 8 seed, the No. 8 seed would automatically earn the playoff spot.
  • If the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed, those two teams would enter a play-in tournament for the final playoff spot in the conference. Such a tournament would be double-elimination for the No. 8 seed and single-elimination for the No. 9 seed (ie. a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 seed given a 1-0 lead to start).

Currently, the Grizzlies hold a 3.5-game lead on Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento in the West, with San Antonio four games back, and Phoenix six games back. In the East, the Magic have a 5.5-game lead on the Wizards, so Washington would need to make up some ground to force a play-in tournament.

Besides giving those six current lottery teams a chance to make the postseason, the format will allow all 22 clubs to surpass 70 regular season games, ensuring that many of them meet the requirements for regional TV contracts, which will help out the league financially.

According to Charania, July 31 remains the target date for the resumption of the 2019/20 season, with the draft lottery and combine – which had been postponed indefinitely – now expected to take place in August. Presumably, those events would take different forms than they normally do, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s not clear yet how the 2020 lottery odds may be affected by the play-in tournament format.

[RELATED: Proposed NBA Plan Would Complete Finals By October 12]

The NBA’s proposal for the resumption of the season is also expected to include many medical and safety protocols, Charania notes. Sources tell The Athletic that those protocols will likely include players showering at their hotels rather than in the arena, inactive players sitting in the stands instead of on the bench, and players not being permitted to bring guests into the “bubble” until the postseason begins.

Any proposal from the NBA will require approval from at least three-quarters of the league’s Board of Governors (ie. 23 of 30 team owners). However, even if the plan isn’t every club’s first choice, there’s an expectation that team owners will get behind Silver and vote in favor of his proposal.

The Board of Governors’ Thursday call is scheduled for 12:30pm eastern time, tweets Wojnarowski.

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Harrison Barnes Only Wants To Play If Games Matter

May 30th, 2020 at 12:30pm CST by Arthur Hill

Harrison Barnes is the latest player to speak out against the idea of participating in meaningless games. Appearing on The Full 48 podcast with Howard Beck (hat tip to Sabreena Merchant of Sactown Royalty), the Kings forward echoed comments made this week by Portland’s Damian Lillard.

“I think Dame is right,” Barnes said. “If you come back and play, you want to be playing for something.”

The Kings and Trail Blazers would both be part of a 22-team scenario that is reportedly gaining support throughout the league. That proposal is believed to include a few regular season games, followed by a play-in format for the postseason. Both teams are on the edge of the Western Conference playoff race, lurking three and a half games behind the eighth-place Grizzlies.

Barnes notes on the podcast that Sacramento has been dealing with injuries all season and was just starting to put things together before the hiatus.

“This group, where we’re at, we need to play, we need to play together, and playing for something is important,” he said.

Barnes also told Beck that he wants to be part of the group in Orlando because of his competitive instincts, but doesn’t see the point of participating if there’s nothing to be gained. He stated that any playoff proposal will have critics, adding, “the idea of fairness — that’s out the window.”

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Players Oppose Going Straight To Postseason When Play Resumes

May 29th, 2020 at 4:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Appearing on ESPN’s SportsCenter on Friday (video link), Ramona Shelburne reported that NBA players she has spoken to are opposed to the idea of advancing directly to the postseason when the league resumes play.

“The one thing that they really don’t want to do is go straight to the playoffs,” Shelburne said. “They might have essentially four months off between March 11 and whenever we get the season resumed, and nobody wants the first meaningful game they play to be a playoff game. They need at least a week – maybe even longer than that – of real games that count for something before they play a playoff game.”

Some of the proposed scenarios for the NBA return would involve just bringing back the 16 playoff teams and advancing directly to the postseason; others would involve only teams at or near the bottom of the playoff picture participating in a play-in tournament. Shelburne suggests that neither of those solutions would be favorable for teams at the top of the postseason picture, who would want some time to shake off the rust and re-establish their chemistry before jumping into the playoffs.

Earlier today, we relayed Shams Charania’s report on the four scenarios the league discussed in its conference call with the Board of Governors call today. We noted in that story that bringing back all 30 teams seems unlikely. Based on Shelburne’s report, it sounds like the NBPA may not be on board with jumping directly to the playoffs with just 16 teams either.

That would leave two scenarios — a World Cup-esque play-in pool, featuring 20 teams, and a “playoffs-plus” option that may feature 22 teams. Shelburne and Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer provided a few more updates on that second option this afternoon, offering the following details:

  • Teams within six games of a playoff spot would be invited to participate, per Shelburne (Twitter link). That means the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards would join the 16 current playoff teams.
  • All 22 teams would likely play eight regular-season games apiece, then a play-in tournament would be held for the eighth seed in each conference, according to O’Connor (Twitter link).
  • While the proposal isn’t yet finalized, it sounds as if conferences would remain in place for the postseason under this scenario, O’Connor adds.

The solution would check off a few boxes for the NBA. It would give every playoff team a solid ramping-up period before the postseason; it would allow many of those 22 teams to reach the 70-game threshold necessary for regional TV contracts; and it would give every team in Orlando something to play for without the league having to bring back all 30 clubs.

However, as O’Connor observes in another tweet, there are some potential downsides as well. Timing could be an issue if the NBA is aiming to resume play on July 31 and requires two or three weeks of regular season games before beginning the playoffs.

Plus, the particulars of the play-in tournament are unclear — for instance, the Magic are currently 5.5 games up on the Wizards and could increase that gap with eight more regular season games to play. Would Washington still be given a chance to steal the eighth seed in that scenario?

There’s no indication yet that the NBA is leaning toward that 22-team concept, and even if the league goes in that direction, it’s possible some details would be tweaked, so we’ll have to wait for further updates on talks between the league, teams, and players. There’s hope that a vote will happen next week.

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Would Holmes-Bagley Frontcourt Mesh?

May 28th, 2020 at 6:47pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • Can Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley III co-exist in the Kings’ frontcourt? James Ham of NBC Sports Bay Area explores the pros and cons of playing the two big men together. The biggest benefit, according to Ham, is that it would give the Kings one of the most athletic frontcourts in the league. They’re both high-motor players who can rebound, block shots and contribute offensively.
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Notes On Proposed Formats For NBA’s Return

May 28th, 2020 at 11:38am CST by Luke Adams

Although a resumption of the 2019/20 season appears likely, there’s still no clarity on what form the NBA will take upon its return. A potential playoff format has been the subject of much discussion and debate this week, with the league still believed to be considering bringing back anywhere from 16 to 30 teams.

Among other issues, the league must decide whether or not to play any regular season games, whether a play-in pool or play-in tournament makes sense, and whether or not to reseed its playoff teams regardless of conference.

[RELATED: Community Shootaround: Play-In Pool Format]

As the NBA continues to weigh all those questions, a number of notable basketball writers are sharing their input on the potential format of a return to play. Here are some highlights:

  • In a deep dive, ESPN’s Zach Lowe explores various playoff formats for the NBA’s return, suggesting that a seven-team play-in tournament for the final three postseason spots (currently held by the Grizzlies, Nets, and Magic) could be one solution. No Eastern lottery teams would be involved in such a tournament, but the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, and Spurs would be.
  • John Hollinger of The Athletic contends that most of the experimental postseason proposals are unnecessarily complicated or have dangerous downsides. In Hollinger’s view, the NBA should just keep it simple, bringing back its 16 current playoff teams and play a “normal” postseason. It’s worth noting that Hollinger’s former team, the eighth-seeded Grizzlies, would undoubtedly favor that solution, which forgoes a play-in tournament.
  • In a podcast, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said that some people around the NBA believe the league’s inclination to have more than 16 teams return this summer is directly related to a desire to have Pelicans star Zion Williamson involved in any return to play (hat tip to RealGM). New Orleans currently ranks 10th in the West and 18th overall in the NBA standings.
  • Danny Leroux of The Athletic makes a case for allowing the NBA’s top teams to pick their playoff opponents, regardless of the format the league chooses.
  • If the NBA decides to bring back all 30 teams, the league ought to freeze the draft lottery order based on the current standings in order to avoid a potential tank-fest, says Marc Berman of The New York Post.
  • Chris Mannix of SI.com questions whether the NBA should even be prioritizing crowning a champion in 2020, and whether that champ will be viewed as legitimate.
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NBA Hopes To Resume Season In July Or August

May 27th, 2020 at 2:28pm CST by Arthur Hill

The NBA’s current projection has games resuming in late July or early August, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

The league is working on multi-phase protocols involving medical and safety concerns, Charania adds. Teams are expected to hold training camps in their home cities in July, followed by camps and scrimmages in Orlando.

It’s the latest bit of encouraging news as the league tries to salvage its season following a hiatus that is now up to 11 weeks. Decisions still have to be made on how many teams will be involved and how the playoffs will be handled.

More information is likely to be forthcoming in a remote meeting Friday involving commissioner Adam Silver and the NBA’s Board of Governors. However, we learned this morning that a final plan isn’t expected at that session.

A limited number of family members would be permitted to join players in the bubble environment in Orlando under a plan being negotiated by the league and the National Basketball Players Association, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne.

Issues include when family members can arrive at the Walt Disney Resort, which will probably happen once the first group of teams is eliminated and fewer people are being housed in the bubble, sources tell the authors. Family members will be required to undergo the same safety and testing protocols as players and other team personnel.

Talks are continuing on a playoff format, but teams are becoming “skeptical” that the entire league will be part of a resumption, the story adds. One playoffs-plus idea would involve 20 to 24 teams with more from the West than from the East, sources tell Wojnarowski and Shelburne. Play-in possibilities are also being considered involving the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Kings, who are all within striking distance of the eighth seed in the West.

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Pacific Notes: Bagley, Hield, Kaminsky, Suns

May 26th, 2020 at 10:47pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Trading Marvin Bagley III might be a prudent move for the Kings, Richard Ivanowski of the Sacramento Bee contends in a piece that looks at a hypothetical trade for each player on the team. While he acknowledges that Sacramento is unlikely to consider such a move, Ivanowski pitches the idea of sending Bagley to the Wizards for their 2020 first-rounder (Washington is currently ninth in our Reverse Standings) and Thomas Bryant.

Bagley, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft, hasn’t been able to stay healthy since coming into the league. That, coupled with the presence of Richaun Holmes, could make Sacramento more comfortable with moving on from the 21-year-old, Ivanowski writes.

Here’s more from the Pacific Division:

  • Buddy Hield has been the subject of some trade speculation, and Ivanowski believes that dealing him to the Magic for Aaron Gordon would be a solid move for the Kings (same piece). Sacramento could pair the 24-year-old with Harrison Barnes as the team’s starting forwards.
  • Suns big man Frank Kaminsky isn’t too concerned with the logistics of the NBA’s return; he just hopes to be able to participate now that he’s healthy, as Gina Mizell of The Athletic passes along. “I’ll go to Saturn to play basketball at this point,” Kaminsky said. “I’ll go pretty much anywhere. You tell me where to be and I’ll be there, ready to play.”
  • The Suns hold a $5MM team option on Kaminsky for 2020/21 and the former No. 9 overall pick said the team hasn’t really discussed it with him, as Mizell adds in the same piece. “Obviously, I really like it here,” Kaminsky said. “I really like this staff. … I’d really like to be back, but that’s something that’s gonna have to be talked about once everything (with the rest of this season is) figured out.”
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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 22nd, 2020 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Kings‘ 39-43 performance in 2018/19 qualified as a breakthrough. It was the team’s best record in 13 years, after all. Sacramento didn’t take another step forward in ’19/20, but hung around the outskirts of the playoff race even as former No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III missed most of the season and other key contributors – like De’Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes – were sidelined with injuries for extended stretches.

Continued development from young players like Fox and Bagley will be crucial as the Kings look to make the leap from frisky lottery team to solid playoff contender. However, the team’s young core will start getting more expensive going forward, beginning with Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic in 2020/21.

Here’s where things stand for the Kings financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Parker will likely opt in, so adding his salary and the cap hold for Sacramento’s first-round pick increases the club’s guaranteed commitments to about $94MM for nine roster spots. It’s safe to assume the Kings will do all they can to re-sign Bogdanovic too, so they’ll operate as an over-the-cap team.

A deadline deal that sent Dewayne Dedmon to Atlanta ensured that the Kings should have the flexibility to negotiate a market-value deal – or match any reasonable offer sheet – for Bogdanovic without approaching the luxury tax line. As such, Sacramento should have the non-taxpayer mid-level and bi-annual exceptions at its disposal this offseason, though it might not make sense to use both exceptions in full — especially if the team wants to retain Bjelica, Bazemore, or any of its other free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 3
  • Trade exception: $2,673,334 (expires 2/8/21)

Footnotes

  1. Bjelica’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 17.
  2. The Kings can’t offer Giles a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  3. These are projected values. If team salary gets high enough, it’s possible the Kings would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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