Salary Cap

Team Owners Await Financial Projections From NBA

NBA team owners are waiting for the league to provide them with new financial projections on lost revenues as a result of the coronavirus-related hiatus, sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. As Wojnarowski explains, NBA chief financial officer J.B. Lockhart has taken the lead on making those estimates and sharing the information with owners.

[RELATED: NBA Hiatus May Extend Into June]

Tom Haberstroh of NBC Sports and Bobby Marks of ESPN are among those who recently estimated that losing the remainder of the regular season and some or all of the postseason could cost the NBA upwards of $500MM+ in basketball related income. While the league has yet to publicize its own projections, it’s safe to say teams around the NBA are bracing for major losses.

According to Wojnarowski, the NBA will likely share a handful of projections with teams based on at least three different scenarios. Those scenarios are as follows:

  1. Shutting down the season entirely.
  2. Resuming the season with no fans in arenas.
  3. Resuming and playing postseason games with fans in attendance.

That lost revenue isn’t the most pressing concern for fans, but we’ll likely see its impact going forward on the salary cap. As recently as last June, the NBA was calling for a $117MM cap for the 2020/21 season, up from approximately $109MM in 2019/20. Given the projected earnings the league will lose as a result of this hiatus and its controversy with China earlier in the season, that estimate is no longer realistic.

Hiatus Notes: Revenue, G League, Warriors, Kings

The league could lose nearly $500MM in ticket revenue if the remainder of the season is not played out, Tom Haberstroh of NBC Sports Philadelphia estimates. Using an unnamed high-ranking league official as a source, Haberstroh relays that the NBA makes an average of $1.2MM in gate revenue per regular season game and $2MM for each playoff game. There were 259 regular-season games remaining, a loss of approximately $300MM in ticket revenue. With 83 postseason games played on average, the league would lose $166MM in postseason revenue.

The loss of basketball-related income could actually total near the $500MM for the regular season alone, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. That would directly affect the salary cap and luxury tax for next season. However, a resumption of the season with fans in attendance could mitigate and eliminate those potential financial losses, Marks adds.

We have more regarding the suspension of NBA games:

  • G League players will be paid as contracted and receive benefits, league expert Adam Johnson tweets. The remainder of the NBAGL season has already been suspended, with Johnson suggesting it may be canceled entirely. The G League’s regular season had been scheduled to end on March 28, with the postseason to follow.
  • Warriors staffers will work from home for at least the next two weeks, Nick Friedell of ESPN tweets. Their players will be allowed to work out individually inside the team’s facility but it’s not a requirement.
  • The Kings have suspended all team activities through Monday, according to a team press release. The players will remain in the Sacramento area but will not participate in group workouts or practices. No Kings players have experienced symptoms of COVID-19.

Coronavirus Updates: Warriors, Cavs, Wizards, Next Steps

As we relayed earlier today, the Warriors‘ Thursday contest vs. Brooklyn is on track to become the first NBA game played without fans in attendance as a result of the coronavirus epidemic.

Discussing the situation today with reporters, Warriors president and COO Rick Welts acknowledged that it will be a costly adjustment for the franchise. As Nick Friedell of ESPN tweets, Welts said not playing Thursday’s game will result in a “multi-million dollar loss” for the Warriors, adding that the number would increase to the “tens of millions” if the team continues to play behind closed doors following its road trip.

Although the lost revenue for one Warriors game won’t have a massive impact on the basketball related income (BRI) for the NBA as a whole, it will become a more significant issue if more teams are forced to play games without fans, which seems likely.

Welts and GM Bob Myers confirmed today that the league’s BRI will be affected and that it could have an impact on the salary cap going forward, though it remains to be seen to what degree that impact will be felt (video link via Anthony Slater of The Athletic). Between this situation and the NBA’s controversy with China, the cap may not increase next season by nearly as much as initially expected.

Here are more news items and notes related to the coronavirus outbreak:

  • The NBA has considered the possibility of pushing back its calendar in response to the coronavirus crisis, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic. Sources tell Amick that the NBA has been asking teams to provide its arena schedule through July. Currently, the season is expected to end no later than June 21 (if the Finals go seven games).
  • The NBA and its players’ union spoke on Wednesday to discuss ways to continue the season without cancelling games, per ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski. It appears increasingly likely that teams around the league will be required to play in empty arenas, with the NBA bracing for losses “in the hundreds of millions of dollars,” sources tell ESPN.
  • After initially recommending against mass gatherings, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said today that the state intends to issue an order saying that no spectators will be allowed at major sporting events, tweets Aaron Portzline of The Athletic. That will affect the Cavaliers, though they’re not scheduled to return home until March 24.
  • After the D.C. Department of Health advised against holding non-essential gatherings of 1,000+ people, the Wizards‘ ownership group issued a statement saying that they plan to move forward with allowing fans to attend home games for now. So far, teams have been reluctant to do anything drastic unless they’re faced with a full-fledged ban from local government or an edict from the league.
  • Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) hears that at least half of the NBA’s teams have pulled their advance scouts off the road due to coronavirus concerns.
  • In case you missed it, the NCAA announced this afternoon that this year’s men’s and women’s tournaments will be closed to fans.

NBA Revises Cap, Tax Projections For 2020/21

3:15pm: The NBA’s new projection is a $115MM salary cap and $139MM tax line, according to Wojnarowski (Twitter links). That’s not as significant a drop from the previous projection as some front offices feared, so it shouldn’t have a noticeable impact on teams’ plans at the deadline.

3:07pm: The NBA has informed teams that new projections for 2020/21’s salary cap and luxury tax threshold are on the way, according to Adrian Wojnarowski and Bobby Marks of ESPN. Those new numbers haven’t been revealed yet, but teams are expected to receive that info shortly in order to ensure they’re as informed as possible as they consider deadline trades.

When the NBA last updated its projection in September, it called for a $116MM cap and a $141MM tax line in 2020/21. Each of those numbers would represent a substantial jump up from the figures for 2019/20, which are $109.14MM (cap) and $132.627MM (tax).

However, those estimates were issued before Rockets general manager Daryl Morey published a tweet supporting protestors in Hong Kong. That tweet instigated a controversy between the NBA and China that cost the league sponsors and television partners. The ordeal is believed to have cost the NBA approximately $150-200MM, league sources told ESPN.

Although the cap is still expected to increase beyond this year’s figure, front office executives are preparing for a more modest jump, according to Wojnarowski and Marks, who hear that some teams believe the new projection could dip as far as $113MM. Tim MacMahon of ESPN tweets that some team executives have referred to the expected drop as the “Daryl Deduction.”

A smaller cap increase than expected may not have a massive impact in free agency, since most teams are expected to be over the cap anyway. Still, every dollar counts when it comes to creating cap flexibility and avoiding the tax. Wojnarowski and Marks point to the Celtics, Nets, Warriors, Rockets, and Sixers as teams that could be taxpayers in 2020/21 and would be on the hook for a larger bill if the tax threshold is a few million dollars lower than anticipated.

Players who have signed maximum-salary contract extensions that take effect for the 2020/21 season will also take note of the league’s new cap estimates, since it will have an impact on their projected earnings.

Sixers guard Ben Simmons and Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, for instance, signed maximum-salary extensions that will start at 25% of the cap next season, assuming neither player earns an All-NBA spot in 2019/20. When they signed those deals in July, the league was projecting a $117MM cap, which would have made them worth $169.65MM over five years. A $113MM cap would reduce their projected value to $163.85MM apiece.

Several other figures – including the rookie scale, mid-level exceptions, minimum salaries, and cash available in trades – are also linked to the percentage the salary cap increases from year to year and would be affected by an adjusted 2020/21 projection.

How NBA/China Controversy Could Impact Salary Cap

As we briefly discussed in our Wednesday night roundup on the latest developments in the NBA/China standoff, salary cap experts for several NBA teams are preparing for a scenario in which lost revenue from Chinese partners affects the growth of the league’s salary cap, according to Keith Smith.

Smith explores the subject in a little more depth in a full story at Yahoo Sports, but makes it clear in a pair of follow-up tweets that those clubs are just doing due diligence now to avoid being caught off guard later. According to Smith, no one is expecting the league’s 2020/21 salary cap projection to dip by as much as the 10-15% figure he cited earlier — teams just want to be prepared for a worst-case scenario.

While the NBA’s salary cap going forward may not be drastically affected by the controversy in China, any unexpected lost revenue can have an impact on the cap. As Jeff Siegel of Early Bird Rights explains in a Twitter thread, the league’s current cap figures and projections for future seasons are based on anticipated basketball-related income (BRI).

This year’s $109.14MM cap – and next year’s $116MM projection – didn’t take into account that the league’s revenue streams in China might take a hit, so if this saga continues, projections for future seasons would have to be adjusted downward to ensure the BRI split between players and team owners adheres to the requirements laid out in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In an in-depth look at the NBA’s financial stakes in China, Jeff Zillgitt and Mark Medina of USA Today suggest that a “conservative” estimate would put the league’s annual revenue from China at $500MM.

Cap expert Albert Nahmad (Twitter link) projects that a $100MM drop in expected revenue for the NBA this season would lower the cap projection for ’20/21 by about $1.7MM. Each additional $100MM drop in revenue up to the $500MM mark would likely reduce the projection by another $1.5MM or so, Nahmad estimates.

If the cap ultimately comes in lower than $116MM, it will have a real impact on where team salaries land in proximity to the cap threshold and to the luxury-tax line. It would also reduce projected maximum salaries, rookie scale amounts, and several other salary figures that are directly linked to the percentage the cap increases (or decreases).

“I haven’t really been in this spot before,” one team’s cap expert told Smith. “The cap has only gone up in recent years. It’s really different. I have to wonder if the league would be pressed to consider some measures to not drop the cap down so far from where we are today at $109MM. Otherwise, a bunch of us are over the tax. It’d be nice to know now, because that changes how we approach trades and everything else throughout the season.”

NBA Updates 2020/21 Salary Cap Projection

The NBA has informed its teams of a new salary cap projection for the 2020/21 season, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). As Charania details, the updated projection calls for a $116MM cap and a $141MM luxury tax line for the ’20/21 campaign.

Previously, the NBA projected a $117MM cap with a $142MM tax line for 2020/21, so the new figures come in slightly below those marks. However, they’d still represent a substantial jump up from the cap figures for 2019/20, which are $109.14MM (cap) and $132.627MM (tax).

According to Charania, the league’s projections for 2021/22 remain unchanged, with the NBA still estimating a $125MM cap and a $151MM tax line for that season.

The updated figures won’t have a massive impact on teams’ plans for next summer, but every dollar counts when it comes to creating cap flexibility. Players who have signed maximum-salary contract extensions that take effect during the 2020/21 season will also take note of the league’s new cap estimates, since it will have a small impact on their projected earnings.

Sixers All-Star Ben Simmons and Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, for instance, signed maximum-salary extensions that will start at 25% of the cap next season, assuming neither player earns an All-NBA spot in 2019/20.

Under the previous $117MM projection, Simmons’ and Murray’s deals were expected to be worth $169.65MM over five years. A $116MM cap would reduce the projected value of those five-year contracts to $168.2MM.

Several other figures, including the rookie scale, mid-level exceptions, minimum salaries, and cash available in trades, are also linked to the percentage the salary cap increases from year to year and would be affected by the adjusted 2020/21 projection.

Rookie Scale Salaries For 2019 First-Round Picks

With the NBA’s salary cap set at $109,140,000 for the 2019/20 league year, the rookie scale has been set as well. The rookie scale locks in the value of contracts for first-round picks.

In every NBA league year, rookie scale amounts are assigned to each first-round slot, from No. 1 through No. 30. Teams can sign their first-rounders to as little as 80% of that rookie scale amount, or up to 120% of that figure. While that rule theoretically affords teams some flexibility, first-round picks virtually always sign contracts worth 120% of their rookie scale amount, and unsigned first-rounders have a cap hold worth 120% of their rookie scale amount.

Listed below, via Jeff Siegel of Early Bird Rights and RealGM, are the salary figures that represent 120% of the rookie scale amounts for 2019’s first-round picks. Players will sign for these amounts unless they accept a deal worth less than the maximum allowable 120%, which hasn’t happened for several years. Rookie scale contracts are guaranteed for the first two years, with team options on the third and fourth years.

Here’s the 2019 breakdown:

Player 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Total
Zion Williamson $9,757,440 $10,245,480 $10,733,400 $13,534,817 $44,271,137
Ja Morant $8,730,240 $9,166,800 $9,603,360 $12,119,440 $39,619,840
R.J. Barrett $7,839,960 $8,231,760 $8,623,920 $10,900,635 $35,596,275
De’Andre Hunter $7,068,360 $7,422,000 $7,775,400 $9,835,881 $32,101,641
Darius Garland $6,400,920 $6,720,720 $7,040,880 $8,920,795 $29,083,315
Jarrett Culver $5,813,640 $6,104,280 $6,395,160 $8,109,063 $26,422,143
Coby White $5,307,120 $5,572,680 $5,837,760 $7,413,955 $24,131,515
Jaxson Hayes $4,862,040 $5,105,160 $5,348,280 $6,803,012 $22,118,492
Rui Hachimura $4,469,160 $4,692,840 $4,916,160 $6,263,188 $20,341,348
Cam Reddish $4,245,720 $4,458,000 $4,670,160 $5,954,454 $19,328,334
Cameron Johnson $4,033,440 $4,235,160 $4,437,000 $5,887,899 $18,593,499
PJ Washington $3,831,840 $4,023,600 $4,215,120 $5,808,435 $17,878,995
Tyler Herro $3,640,200 $3,822,240 $4,004,280 $5,722,116 $17,188,836
Romeo Langford $3,458,400 $3,631,200 $3,804,360 $5,634,257 $16,528,217
Sekou Doumbouya $3,285,120 $3,449,400 $3,613,680 $5,539,771 $15,887,971
Chuma Okeke * $3,121,080 $3,277,080 $3,433,320 $5,266,713 $15,098,193
Nickeil Alexander-
Walker
$2,964,840 $3,113,160 $3,261,480 $5,009,633 $14,349,113
Goga Bitadze $2,816,760 $2,957,520 $3,098,400 $4,765,339 $13,638,019
Luka Samanic $2,689,920 $2,824,320 $2,959,080 $4,556,983 $13,030,303
Matisse Thybulle $2,582,160 $2,711,280 $2,840,160 $4,379,527 $12,513,127
Brandon Clarke $2,478,840 $2,602,920 $2,726,880 $4,343,920 $12,152,560
Grant Williams $2,379,840 $2,498,760 $2,617,800 $4,306,281 $11,802,681
Darius Bazley $2,284,800 $2,399,160 $2,513,040 $4,264,629 $11,461,629
Ty Jerome $2,193,480 $2,303,040 $2,412,840 $4,220,057 $11,129,417
Nassir Little $2,105,520 $2,210,640 $2,316,240 $4,171,548 $10,803,948
Dylan Windler $2,035,800 $2,137,440 $2,239,200 $4,037,278 $10,449,718
Mfiondu Kabengele $1,977,000 $2,075,880 $2,174,880 $3,923,484 $10,151,244
Jordan Poole $1,964,760 $2,063,280 $2,161,440 $3,901,399 $10,090,879
Keldon Johnson $1,950,600 $2,048,040 $2,145,720 $3,873,025 $10,017,385
Kevin Porter Jr. * $1,290,960 $1,717,981 $1,782,621 $3,217,631 $8,009,193

* Okeke won’t sign his rookie contract until 2020/21.

* Porter will earn 80% of the rookie scale in 2019/20 and less than 120% of the rookie scale in future seasons.

NBA Minimum Salaries For 2019/20

While some NBA teams will head into free agency with more than enough cap room to add a maximum-salary player, other clubs will be totally capped out. However, each of the NBA’s 30 franchises will be on common ground in one respect: No team will be ineligible to sign a player to a minimum salary contract.

Teams with cap room available will have a little more flexibility to sign players to longer-term minimum salary contracts, but over-the-cap clubs will still be able to use the minimum salary exception to add as many players as roster limits allow, for contracts of up to two years. Unlike other exceptions, such as the mid-level or the bi-annual, the minimum salary exception can be used multiple times.

[RELATED: Values of 2019/20 mid-level, bi-annual exceptions]

Undrafted free agents and late second-round picks are often recipients of minimum salary contracts, but there are plenty of veterans who end up settling for the minimum too. Of course, because a player’s minimum salary is determined by how much NBA experience he has, many veterans will earn more than twice as much money as a rookie will in 2019/20 on a minimum salary contract.

Listed below are 2019/20’s minimum salary figures, sorted by years of NBA experience. If a player spent any time on an NBA club’s active regular season roster in a given season, he earned one year of experience. So any player with zero years of experience has not yet made his NBA debut.

Here’s the full breakdown:

Years of Experience Salary
0 $898,310
1 $1,445,697
2 $1,620,564
3 $1,678,854
4 $1,737,145
5 $1,882,867
6 $2,028,594
7 $2,174,318
8 $2,320,044
9 $2,331,593
10+ $2,564,753

Because the NBA doesn’t want teams to avoid signing veteran players in favor of cheaper, younger players, the league reimburses clubs who sign veterans with three or more years of experience to one-year, minimum salary contracts. Those deals will only count against the cap – and against a team’s bank balance – for $1,620,564, the minimum salary for a player with two years of experience.

For instance, if Tyson Chandler – who has 18 years of NBA experience – signs a one-year, minimum salary contract with a new team, that team would only be charged $1,620,564 for Chandler’s contract. He’d earn $2,564,753, but the NBA would make up the difference. This only applies to one-year contracts, rather than multiyear deals.

If a player signs a minimum salary contract after the regular season begins, he’ll earn a pro-rated portion of the amount listed above.

NBA Maximum Salaries For 2019/20

Now that the NBA has set its salary cap for the 2019/20 league year at $109,140,000, we have a clear idea of what maximum-salary contracts will look like for the coming season.

While these numbers can probably soon be applied to contracts for free agents like Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, and others, they’re also relevant for players who signed maximum-salary extensions that will go into effect in ’19/20, such as Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, John Wall, and James Harden.

Listed below are the maximum-salary contracts for players signing contracts that start in 2019/20. The first chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with his own team — a player’s previous team can offer five years instead of four, and 8% annual raises instead of 5% raises. The second chart shows the maximum salaries for a player signing with a new team.

A player’s maximum salary is generally determined by his years of NBA experience, so there’s a wide gap between potential earnings for younger and older players. In the charts below, the “6 years or less” column details the maximum contracts for players like Booker and Towns; the “7-9 years” column applies to free agents like Leonard and Irving; and the “10+ years” column applies to vets like Durant or super-max players like Wall and Harden.

Here are the maximum salary figures for 2019/20:


A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):

Year 6 years or less 7-9 years 10+ years
2019/20 $27,285,000 $32,742,000 $38,199,000
2020/21 $29,467,800 $35,361,360 $41,254,920
2021/22 $31,650,600 $37,980,720 $44,310,840
2022/23 $33,833,400 $40,600,080 $47,366,760
2023/24 $36,016,200 $43,219,440 $50,422,680
Total $158,253,000 $189,903,600 $221,554,200

A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):

Year 6 years or less 7-9 years 10+ years
2019/20 $27,285,000 $32,742,000 $38,199,000
2020/21 $28,649,250 $34,379,100 $40,108,950
2021/22 $30,013,500 $36,016,200 $42,018,900
2022/23 $31,377,750 $37,653,300 $43,928,850
Total $117,325,500 $140,790,600 $164,255,700

Values Of 2019/20 Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Exceptions

The salary cap for the 2019/20 NBA league year has officially been set, with the league announcing that the cap will be $109,140,000.

Under the league’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the values of the mid-level, room, and bi-annual exceptions are tied to the percentage that the salary cap increases in a given year. The cap figure for 2019/20 represents approximately a 7.1% increase over last season’s $101,869,000, so other exceptions will increase by the same amount, rounded to the nearest thousand.

Listed below are the maximum annual and total values of each of these exceptions, along with a brief explanation of how they work and which teams will have access to them.


Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):

Year Salary
2019/20 $9,258,000
2020/21 $9,720,900
2021/22 $10,183,800
2022/23 $10,646,700
Total $39,809,400

The non-taxpayer mid-level exception is the primary tool available for over-the-cap teams to add free agents. As long as a team hasn’t dipped below the cap to use cap space and doesn’t go over the tax apron ($138,928,000) at all, it can use this MLE, which runs for up to four years with 5% annual raises.


Mid-Level Exception (Taxpayer):

Year Salary
2019/20 $5,718,000
2020/21 $6,003,900
2021/22 $6,289,800
Total $18,011,700

If an over-the-cap team currently projects to be a taxpayer, or expects to move into tax territory later in the 2019/20 season, it will have access to this smaller mid-level exception for taxpaying teams. If a team uses more than $5,718,000 of its mid-level exception, it is forbidden from surpassing the tax apron at any time during the league year. So even if a team isn’t above the apron when it uses its MLE, it might make sense to play it safe by avoiding using the full MLE and imposing a hard cap.

The taxpayer MLE can be used to sign a player for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.


Room Exception:

Year Salary
2019/20 $4,767,000
2020/21 $5,005,350
Total $9,772,350

Although this is also a mid-level exception of sorts, it’s colloquially known as the “room” exception, since it’s only available to teams that have used cap room. If a club goes under the cap, it loses its full mid-level exception, but gets this smaller room exception, which allows the team to go over the cap to sign a player, once the team has used up all its cap space. It can be used to sign players for up to two years, with a 5% raise for the second season.


Bi-Annual Exception:

Year Salary
2019/20 $3,623,000
2020/21 $3,804,150
Total $7,427,150

The bi-annual exception, as its name suggests, is only available to teams once every two years. Of the NBA’s 30 clubs, only three – the Bucks, Pelicans, Knicks, and Spurs – used it in 2018/19, so they won’t have access to it in 2019/20. The league’s other 26 teams could theoretically use it this season.

Still, even if a team didn’t use its BAE in ’18/19, that club doesn’t necessarily have access to it for the coming year. As is the case with the non-taxpayer MLE, this exception disappears once a team goes under the cap. It’s also not available to teams over the tax apron — using the BAE creates a hard cap at the apron.

The BAE can be used to sign players for up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one.

Note: Be sure to check out our Hoops Rumors Glossary installments for more information on the mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception.