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Details On Traded Picks, Upcoming Draft Tiebreakers

April 12th, 2018 at 12:20am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.

More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.

However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).

[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]

For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.

For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.

Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:

  • Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
  • Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
  • Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
  • Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
  • Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.

Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:

  • Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
  • Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
    • Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
  • Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
    • Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
  • Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
  • Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
    • Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
  • Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
  • Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
  • Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
  • Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
  • Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
  • Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30

Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:

  • Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
  • Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
  • Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
  • Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
  • Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
  • Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
  • Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
  • Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
  • Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
  • Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
  • Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
  • Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
  • Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
  • Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
  • Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60
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Western Conference Playoff Seeding

April 11th, 2018 at 11:54pm CST by clarkcrum

11:54pm: The Trail Blazers have defeated the Jazz in their regular season finale and clinched the No. 3 seed with the win. Here are the first-round matchups in the Western Conference:

  • Rockets (No. 1) vs. Timberwolves (No. 8)
  • Warriors (No. 2) vs. Spurs (No. 7)
  • Trail Blazers (No. 3) vs. Pelicans (No. 6)
  • Thunder (No. 4) vs. Jazz (No. 5)

9:47pm: The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets and clinched the final spot in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. We now know the following.

  • The Nuggets will miss the playoffs
  • The Timberwolves are the No. 8 seed.
  • The Spurs are the No. 7 seed.
  • If the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz:
    • Pelicans are No. 6
    • Jazz are No. 5
    • Thunder are No. 4
    • Blazers are No. 3
  • If the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers:
    • Thunder are No. 6
    • Pelicans are No. 5
    • Blazers are No. 4
    • Jazz are No. 3

8:54pm: The Thunder lead the Grizzlies by 12 with less than nine minutes remaining, while the Pelicans lead the Spurs by 18 with less than 10 minutes remaining. Barring a surprise comeback by Memphis or San Antonio, here is how the playoff picture looks after wins by Oklahoma City and New Orleans.

Jazz: 3 or 5

Trail Blazers: 3 or 4

Thunder: 4 or 6

Pelicans: 5 or 6

Spurs: 7 or 8

Timberwolves: 8 or 9

Nuggets: 7 or 9

4:37pm: As we indicated earlier today, the Nuggets and Timberwolves will face-off tonight with the final spot of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on the line.

And while that game will be the only winner-gets-in, loser-gets-eliminated contest tonight, there are numerous other games with playoff seeding implications on the line. In the Western Conference, only the Rockets and the Warriors know their playoff seeding. Seeds three through eight are all still up for grabs, as follows:

Jazz: 3, 4, or 5

Trail Blazers: 3, 4, or 5

Pelicans: 5, 6, 7, or 8

Spurs: 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8

Thunder: 4, 6, or 8

Timberwolves: 6, 7, 8, or 9

Nuggets: 6, 7, or 9

We will be updating the Western Conference playoff seeding scenarios – in real time – as games finish this evening, so stay tuned to Hoops Rumors for all relevant up-to-the-minute developments.  For now, here are some initial notes that are not conditional upon other game results:

  • The Jazz and Trail Blazers winner gets the No. 3 seed.
  • The Thunder will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to the Grizzlies.
  • As noted above, the loser of the Nuggets and Wolves will finish ninth in the Western Conference standings.
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Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

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Cavs Notes: Green, Zizic, Korver

April 6th, 2018 at 5:47pm CST by Austin Kent

The Cavaliers will start Jeff Green for the remainder of the season, Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com writes. Head coach Tyronn Lue cites the team’s recent success against some Eastern Conference contenders as the inspiration behind the 31-year-old combo forward’s promotion.

Lue likes Green’s ability to check opposing teams’ elite guards and certain metrics suggest that the Cavs are better both offensively and defensively with Green in the lineup alongside LeBron James.

“I just like that we can switch a lot of 1 through 4 stuff and it gives us another ball handler on the floor too, so I just think it’s the right thing for us to start,” Lue said.

There’s more out of Cleveland tonight:

  • The Cavaliers saw a brief glimpse of what they acquired in the Kyrie Irving trade when rookie big man Ante Zizic was thrust into a more prominent role in the Cleveland rotation last month. Jason Lloyd of The Athletic talks about the Turkish pivot’s rise through the Adriatic League and the steps he’s taking to make a meaningful impact in the NBA.
  • The Cavs weren’t the only team interested in Kyle Korver when the veteran hit free agency last summer. Dave McMenamin of ESPN writes that among Korver’s suitors were the 76ers, Lakers and Spurs.
  • A commitment to a healthier diet and exercise has allowed Tyronn Lue to return to the sidelines after missing nine games related to chest pains he experienced last month. “This was the first time in 20 years where I really just had a chance to focus on me and get myself right and [Warriors coach Steve Kerr] reminded me of that,” Lue told Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. “We get so wrapped up in the game that we forget about real life, and it was the best advice I got so thank Steve for that.“
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Spurs Send Derrick White To Austin For NBAGL Western Final

April 5th, 2018 at 7:20pm CST by Luke Adams
  • With the South Bay Lakers set to face the Austin Spurs in the NBAGL’s single-elimination Western Conference Finals, the Lakers assigned Travis Wear to the G League to play in the game, according to the club (Twitter link). Wear has been a key contributor for South Bay this season, averaging 16.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG in 33 contests.
  • The Spurs‘ affiliate also received reinforcements for Thursday night’s Western Conference Final, as the team assigned Derrick White to Austin, per a press release. White has put up 20.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.5 APG in 24 G League games this season.
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Cavaliers Notes: Leonard, Hood, Calderon, Drew

April 4th, 2018 at 7:38pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Cavaliers will be among the teams reaching out to the Spurs this offseason about Kawhi Leonard, sources tell Sam Amico of AmicoHoops. There have been reports that teams around the league believe Leonard may be available because of the season-long drama surrounding his quad injury.

The Cavs have a valuable asset to offer in the unprotected Nets pick, and although it’s not certain they would part with the selection, Amico writes that it will probably be the first thing the Spurs ask for. Brooklyn is seventh in our latest Reverse Standings, but is only one loss away from moving into a tie for fourth.

There’s more today out of Cleveland:

  • Shooting guard Rodney Hood has a big fan in teammate LeBron James, Amico adds in a separate story. James is counting on Hood to be an important contributor in the playoffs and believes he has a bright future with the team. Acquired from the Jazz at the trade deadline, Hood is averaging 11.2 points in 19 games with Cleveland. He will be eligible for an extension this summer.
  • The Cavaliers have been through a lot of point guards this season, but veteran Jose Calderon continues to stand out, notes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. The 36-year-old had a season-high 19 points to go with four assists and just one turnover in Tuesday’s win against the East-leading Raptors. “Jose is just a guy, he just knows his position,” interim coach Larry Drew said. “He knows how to play his position. He’s not quick. He’s not fast. He doesn’t do a lot of things out on the court that are very sexy, but he just gets things done and little things like that, big men have an appreciation for. Kevin [Love] knows that if he sets a good screen on Jose’s guy, chances are he’s going to be open. The two of them out on the floor, they really mesh real well.”
  • Drew deserves credit for helping to save the Cavs’ season when head coach Tyronn Lue was sidelined by health problems, writes Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. The team is 8-1 since Drew took over on March 19 and appears to be playing its best basketball heading into the postseason. Lue plans to resume head coaching duties Thursday.
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Teams Will Inquire On Kawhi Leonard In Offseason

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:03am CST by Luke Adams

Whether or not Kawhi Leonard is able to get back on the court for the Spurs at the end of the regular season or during the playoffs, it has been a tumultuous year for the star forward and his relationship with the franchise. Teams around the NBA have taken note of that apparent discord and plan to look into Leonard’s availability this offseason, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said during an appearance on Outside The Lines (video link).

“I have already talked to several NBA general managers,” Windhorst said, per Ryne Nelson of SLAM. “At the end of this season, teams will call the Spurs and inquire about the availability of Kawhi Leonard.”

ESPN’s Zach Lowe echoed Windhorst’s report, tweeting that his colleague’s assertion is “100% true.” Lowe added that the “vultures are circling” in the hopes that the Spurs may consider moving Leonard around the time of the draft in June.

While teams hoping to land Leonard can certainly call the Spurs this summer, that doesn’t mean R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich will seriously consider trading their franchise player. In fact, Windhorst said later in his Outside The Lines appearance that he still believes the most likely scenario involves the Spurs and Leonard coming to an agreement on an extension that keeps him in San Antonio long-term.

Nonetheless, the fact that teams believe they may have a chance to trade for Leonard is a story in itself. Reports of tension between the franchise and the star forward surfaced back in January, and have persisted since then. Spurs doctors have reportedly cleared Leonard to return from the quad injury that has nagged him all season, but Leonard’s own doctors haven’t given him the go-ahead. Popovich has acknowledged that the 26-year-old may not return this season, while the Spurs held a players-only meeting last month to discuss Leonard’s status.

Leonard, who is currently on track to reach unrestricted free agency in 2019, will be eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension between July 1 and the start of the 2018/19 season. A deal of that nature would extend Leonard’s contract by five extra years and pay him a starting salary worth 35% of the salary cap. Assuming the Spurs put that offer on the table, it’s hard to imagine him turning it down, but if either side balks, trade rumors surrounding Leonard may intensify.

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Poll: Which Western Contenders Will Miss Playoffs?

April 3rd, 2018 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Three teams in the Western Conference have clinched playoff berths, with the Rockets, Warriors, and Trail Blazers likely locked into the top three seeds, in that order. However, after those top teams, the race for the conference’s final five postseason spots remains hotly contested.

The Spurs (45-32) are ostensibly in the driver’s seat for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, but a late-season slide could still put their playoff spot in jeopardy. San Antonio has back-to-back road games against the Clippers and Lakers on tap this week, followed by home games against Portland and Sacramento, and a regular season finale in New Orleans. While it’s still possible that Kawhi Leonard could return for one or more of those games, the club isn’t counting on that.

While the Thunder (45-33) remain in contention for the No. 4 spot too, they’re also one bad week away from slipping out of the playoff picture, particularly since they hold virtually no tiebreakers against their Western competitors. You can probably pencil OKC in for a win at home vs. Memphis next Wednesday, but before that game, the Thunder will have to deal with the Warriors at home, and the Rockets and Heat on the road.

The Jazz (44-33) have won 27 of their last 34 games, but that hasn’t been enough to pull away from the pack in the West. A home-and-away set against the Lakers this week bodes well, but Utah will also have to host the Clippers and Warriors before finishing the season in Portland. Holding tiebreakers over the Spurs, Pelicans, and Clips could come in handy.

The Timberwolves (44-34) could badly use Jimmy Butler in their lineup down the stretch, and he’s still expected to be back before the end of the season, but his exact return date remains up in the air. Home-and-away games against Denver may ultimately decide Minnesota’s playoff fate, though the Wolves will also face a pair of lottery teams in the Lakers (road) and Grizzlies (home). Minnesota’s tiebreakers over the Thunder, Jazz, Pelicans, and Clippers look big now.

The Pelicans (43-34) have lost four straight games, putting their playoff spot at risk, but those losses came against four very good teams. They’ll have a chance to turn things around this week when they host the Grizzlies and visit the Suns. After that, the schedule gets tough again — the Pelicans close out by visiting the Warriors and Clippers before hosting the Spurs.

If any of those five teams falter, the Nuggets (42-35) and Clippers (41-36) will be ready to take advantage, though neither team has it easy down the stretch. In addition to facing Minnesota twice, the Nuggets also host the Pacers and Trail Blazers. The Clippers have one road game left in Utah, and will host the Spurs, Pelicans, and Lakers. The Nuggets and Clippers will also face one another in L.A. on Saturday.

Got all that? Great. Now, we want to know what you think. How will the season’s final nine days play out? Which two of the top 10 teams in the West will end up missing the playoffs? Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Popovich Discusses Kawhi Leonard's Status

April 2nd, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams
  • Asked on Sunday for the latest on Kawhi Leonard‘s status, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said there has been no word on the star forward since he headed to New York last week for rehab purposes. “I don’t know when he and his group are going to feel like they are ready to go,” Popovich said, according to Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. “If I knew, he’d be here. When he and his group feel he’s ready, then he’ll be ready.” Leonard has already been ruled out of San Antonio’s Tuesday game against the Clippers (Twitter link via Jeff McDonald of The Express-News).
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