- Dejounte Murray isn’t sure what kind of reception to expect Sunday in his first game back in San Antonio since the Spurs traded him to the Hawks, per Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. Some fans are upset about statements and social media posts from Murray regarding his time in the city. “At the end of the day, I love this city, I love the San Antonio Spurs organization, the Austin Spurs, I love everything about it,” Murray said Saturday. “However it goes (Sunday) is however it goes. But I am excited to see the people I love and care about.”
Luka Doncic has been ruled out of Friday’s game at the Lakers as he continues to deal with a left thigh strain, the Mavericks confirmed (Twitter link via Marc Stein). Fellow guard Kyrie Irving is questionable with a right foot injury — he previously said he was feeling discomfort near his big toe.
While Doncic miss his fourth straight game tonight, he’s hopeful that he could return for the Mavs’ next game on Monday at Memphis, tweets Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News.
“Hopefully next game. Monday, hopefully then, but we’ll see day by day,” Doncic said.
The Mavs have gone 1-2 over the past three games without their two best players and are currently 35-35, the No. 8 seed in the West.
Here’s more from the Southwest:
- Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd has been heavily scrutinized in recent weeks for his laid-back demeanor amid a poor stretch of play (the Mavs are just 4-9 since the trade deadline), but his players like his “even-keeled” style, as Caplan writes for The Dallas Morning News. “He’s a Hall of Fame point guard, one of the best point guards of all time, and you can tell by the way he coaches that he has that demeanor,” third-year wing Josh Green said. “A lot of coaches, they’re tight, they’re panicking, but he’s very relaxed. He sees plays. He sees what’s open. He knows what’s working. It’s good to have a coach like that, and it’s very motivating for the rest of the team.” Kidd wasn’t always known for being easygoing — far from it. He credited his time as an assistant with the Lakers for his improved “patience and perspective,” according to Caplan.
- Jabari Smith Jr. has had his ups and downs this season, as most rookies do. However, the 2022 third overall pick has played his best basketball of late, a promising sign for the Rockets going forward, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (subscriber link). “You want to see your rooks learn and grow and improve throughout the season,” guard Kevin Porter Jr. said. “Jabari’s season has definitely been that. He started figuring it out. Had a great run, a great stretch and then had a rookie wall and then had his All-Star break. Now you see him settling into his own game. You see him shooting the 3 with a lot more confidence, his turnaround, his mid game, everything. The defensive end, he’s shown he’s improved that. I’m proud of him. He’s going to keep getting better.” Smith, a 19-year-old forward, recently became the first teenager in league history to record three straight games with 20-plus points and 10-plus rebounds, Feigen writes.
- Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich thinks very highly of for rookie forward Jeremy Sochan, according to Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News (Twitter links). “He’s a stud,” Popovich said. “He’s going to be a hell of a player. He’s got the same heart, the same competitiveness as Manu Ginobili. … I have never seen someone come in at such a young age and act like they have been here forever. He’s just totally unintimidated.” The ninth overall pick of last June’s draft, Sochan is averaging 11.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 2.6 APG on .453/.250/.702 shooting in 54 games (26.4 MPG).
Fans of lottery-bound NBA teams will be keeping a close on the bottom of the league’s standings down the stretch because of the effect that “race” will have on the draft order and lottery odds for the 2023 first round.
However, it’s not just the first round of the draft that’s worth keeping an eye on. Those reverse standings will also dictate the order of the draft’s second round, and an early second-round pick can be nearly as valuable as a first-rounder.
[RELATED: Traded Second-Round Picks For 2023 NBA Draft]
Here are a few of the traded 2023 draft picks that project to land near the top of the second round:
From: Houston Rockets
To: Indiana Pacers or Boston Celtics
Current projection: No. 32
The Rockets initially traded their 2023 second-round pick, with top-32 protection, to Memphis at the 2020 trade deadline as part of a Bruno Caboclo/Jordan Bell swap. The Celtics later acquired that top-32 protected second-rounder during the 2020 offseason in the deal that sent the draft rights to No. 30 pick Desmond Bane to the Grizzlies.
As part of the complex four-team James Harden blockbuster in early 2021, the Rockets agreed to send the Pacers their 2023 second-round pick if it ends up at No. 31 and No. 32. So the Pacers are on track to receive that Houston second-rounder if it’s one of the first two picks of the round, while the Celtics would get it otherwise.
We took a closer look at this draft-related subplot of the NBA’s race to the bottom last week, noting that the Pacers could instead end up with a pick in the early 50s if the Rockets’ second-rounder slips to No. 33. Missing out on Houston’s pick wouldn’t be quite as bad for the Celtics, as we outline below.
From: Portland Trail Blazers
To: Boston Celtics or Oklahoma City Thunder
Current projection: No. 36
If the Rockets’ second-round pick ends up at No. 31 or No. 32, the Celtics will almost certainly receive Portland’s pick instead. If Houston’s second-rounder lands at No. 33, Boston would get it, while the Thunder would acquire the Blazers’ pick.
Should the Blazers’ recent slide continue, their second-rounder may not actually be much less favorable than Houston’s — only four spots separate them for the time being.
The Blazers originally gave up their 2023 second-round selection when they acquired Rodney Hood from Cleveland just ahead of the 2019 deadline. It was subsequently flipped to the Pistons (in the 2019 offeason), the Clippers (in the 2020 offseason), the Hawks (at the 2021 deadline), and finally the Celtics in a three-team trade during the summer of 2021.
When they acquired Mike Muscala from the Thunder last month, the Celtics agreed to send OKC the least favorable of their two 2023 second-round picks, which is why the Thunder would receive Portland’s pick if Boston gets Houston’s.
From: Chicago Bulls
To: Washington Wizards
Current projection: No. 37
The Bulls remain in the thick of the play-in race in the Eastern Conference, so it’s possible their second-rounder could slide all the way to the mid-40s if they make the play-in tournament and then earn a playoff spot. However, the Wizards – the team the Bulls are chasing for the No. 10 spot in the East – have extra incentive to stay ahead of Chicago, thereby increasing the value of this pick.
The Wizards acquired this Bulls second-rounder with top-36 protection when they sent Otto Porter Jr. to Chicago at the 2019 deadline. The Bulls agreed to remove the protections as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Tomas Satoransky later that year.
Interestingly, the Wizards actually traded Chicago’s 2023 second-rounder to the Lakers as part of the Russell Westbrook blockbuster in the summer of 2021, but got it back from L.A. a couple months ago in the Rui Hachimura deal.
From: Indiana Pacers
To: Sacramento Kings
Current projection: No. 38
Like the Bulls, the Pacers are still in the play-in race in the East, so there’s no guarantee this pick will land in the top 10 of the second round. But Indiana has a banged-up roster and doesn’t appear overly incentivized to make the play-in tournament.
This pick changed hands in the Domantas Sabonis/Tyrese Haliburton mega-deal at the 2022 trade deadline. Technically, the Spurs would receive it if it lands between Nos. 56 and 60, but we can safely rule out that possibility at this point.
Other picks to watch:
Given how congested the play-in races are in each conference, there are a handful of other second-rounders whose value could surpass that of a couple of the picks listed above.
For instance, the Jazz‘s second-round pick is currently controlled by the Hornets, the Spurs own the Raptors‘ second-rounder, and the Thunder will acquire the Wizards‘ second-rounder if it’s more favorable than OKC’s own pick.
MARCH 15: The Spurs have confirmed Bassey’s initial diagnosis of a non-displaced patella fracture and he has been ruled out for the remainder of the season.
MARCH 14: Spurs forward Charles Bassey has a non-displaced fracture of his left patella, according to an initial diagnosis, Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News tweets. Bassey will undergo additional testing on Wednesday.
He suffered the injury during the first half of the team’s victory over Orlando on Tuesday.
Coach Gregg Popovich said he learned of Bassey’s diagnosis at halftime, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News tweets.
“Somebody hit me with that at halftime,” Popovich said. “Poor guy, he was just learning how to play.”
Bassey has appeared in 34 games this season, averaging 5.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per night. He had a pair of 14-point games against Houston earlier this month.
Bassey signed a four-year contract with San Antonio earlier this month, though the last two years are non-guaranteed. Bassey joined the Spurs in October on a two-way contract after being waived by the 76ers.
Bassey had a leg injury that kept him out of action for a chunk of time in January and February. He suffered a tibial plateau fracture during his college career at Western Kentucky.
This is the seventh entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Pelicans and Spurs…
On February 9, the Pelicans sent guard Devonte’ Graham and four second-round picks (details here) to the Spurs in exchange for swingman Josh Richardson.
The Pelicans’ perspective:
Acquiring Graham via sign-and-trade in 2021 didn’t work out for New Orleans. The team wound up dealing for CJ McCollum last year and running him at starting point guard, and Graham got outplayed by undrafted free agent Jose Alvarado in each of the past two seasons.
The Pelicans also had former first-rounder Kira Lewis Jr. return from a torn ACL in 2022/23 and drafted Dyson Daniels No. 8 overall last summer. Carrying five players on the 15-man roster who primarily play the point isn’t ideal.
There’s also the fact that, when healthy, both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram handle the ball a significant portion of the time and are play-makers. That makes a short (6’1″) subpar defender like Graham an awkward fit.
The 6’6″ Richardson, meanwhile, fills a positional need at shooting guard and is a much better defensive player than Graham. At his best, Richardson uses his 6’10” wingspan, athleticism and quick hands to be disruptive on that end of the floor — he has averaged 2.6 SPG and 0.8 BPG through nine games with the Pelicans (his career marks are 1.1 SPG and 0.6 BPG).
Shedding Graham’s salary over the next couple of seasons — he’s owed $12.1MM in ‘23/24 and a partially guaranteed $2.85MM ($12.65MM base) in ‘24/25 — likely cost the Pelicans at least two second-round picks, if not three. Replacing him with Richardson for an extra second or two was a low-risk maneuver.
Richardson is on an expiring $12.2MM contract, making him an unrestricted free agent this offseason. If the Pelicans can bring him back at a similar rate — essentially swapping Graham’s salary slot for Richardson — that would be solid value. Letting him walk is also a valid option if they’re concerned about the luxury tax going forward.
Richardson has bounced around quite a bit after spending his first four, most successful seasons with Miami, having played for Philadelphia, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio and now New Orleans over the past four seasons.
As is the case with nearly every NBA player outside of the superstars, how a player fits within the dynamic of the rest of the roster largely determines whether he’s successful or not. Richardson is a quality role player, but not on every team.
The 29-year-old sometimes gets the generic 3-and-D label, which I think is a little bit of a misnomer in his case.
While Richardson is a solid defensive player, his offensive game is more varied than just spotting up for open threes. He’s an erratic outside shooter, converting 36.4% for his career from deep, which is right around league average (35.9% over the same eight seasons). However, he has been as high as 46.1% (on his lowest volume as a rookie), and as low as 33.0% (two separate seasons).
Richardson plays with a lot of energy on both sides of the ball and understands how to optimize spacing offensively. If things look congested on one side of the floor, you will see him flying around to an open area to create more room and better passing angles. 90.5% of his career three-point attempts have been assisted — he’s not looking to create his own shot from beyond the arc.
He is a crafty complementary pick-and-roll operator who particularly favors getting his defender on his hip and then stopping and pulling up around 12-to-17 feet. He has been very efficient from mid-range this season, converting 48.5% of those opportunities — that ranks in the 85th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.
If the right-handed Richardson gets all the way into the paint, he prefers to finish with his left hand, often using a scoop shot. He will use hesitation moves or his speed to get to the rim during pick-and-rolls.
The eight-year veteran is an unselfish passer and has a soft touch when throwing lobs, though his handle is a little loose at times, which can lead to turnovers. He generally does a solid job of taking care of the ball and making good reads though, especially for a secondary or tertiary ball-handler – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.97-to-1, a respectable mark for a shooting guard.
This season represents the first time in Richardson’s career that he’s taken more threes than twos, and from an efficiency standpoint you could argue he should have been pushed in that direction sooner, even if he’s just an average shooter from long distance. He’s also not a great rebounder for a two guard and can struggle with bigger, more physical players on defense, as his frame is relatively thin (he’s listed at 200 pounds).
Another weak point is that Richardson will gamble on occasion defensively, reaching instead of using his feet to stick with his opponent. Still, when he’s engaged, he’s an above-average defender.
Overall, this trade made a lot sense for New Orleans. The Pelicans were able to fill a positional need in the short term and get rid of Graham’s contract, which had become problematic given his poor fit and the long-term commitments to other players.
The Spurs’ perspective:
Richardson played some of his best basketball since his Miami days with San Antonio, but he’s 29 years old and on expiring contract. The Spurs are in the midst of their first rebuild in decades, so extracting value for Richardson was logical.
While Graham was redundant on the Pelicans, the Spurs had a glaring need at point guard – Tre Jones is the only other true lead guard on the roster. In fact, Richardson was serving as the backup point at times, and though he did a respectable job, Graham is better suited for the role.
Graham is a good ball-handler and passer. He also takes care of the ball, posting a career 3.09-to-1- assist-to-turnover ratio – 3-to-1 is generally considered a very good benchmark. He is more of a shoot-first point guard who can play off the ball than a traditional pass-first floor general.
This trade is a good example of how statistics can be misleading without context. Richardson is a career 36.4% three-point shooter, while Graham is at 35.7%. On the surface, that seems like Graham is a worse three-point shooter.
Yet if you watch the two play, it would immediately be evident that Graham is a much more dangerous outside shooter. He has taken more than twice as many threes as twos in his career and is able to find shots from long distance in multiple ways.
Graham doesn’t hesitate to pull up from deep in transition, and utilizes dribble moves – including side-steps, crossovers and relocation dribbles – to create his own shot. He can shoot on the move coming off screens, in addition to the typical catch-and-shoot threes.
The Spurs rank just 26th in the league in three-point attempts and 25th in the three-point percentage. Graham’s shot selection can be a little questionable at times, in my opinion, but his ability to stretch the floor and make good reads while passing adds a different dynamic to their offense.
If the young draft picks on San Antonio’s roster can learn from some of Graham’s offensive skills, that would be an added bonus. Several of them are still in the early stages of their development.
In 53 games with the Pelicans this season (15.3 MPG), Graham was averaging just 5.3 PPG and 2.2 APG on .368/.347/.746 shooting. In 11 games (28.1 MPG) with the Spurs, he’s averaging 15.8 PPG and 4.2 APG on .394/.378/.825 shooting. He’s attempting 8.9 threes per game with San Antonio, which is right around what he averaged a few years ago with Charlotte.
Graham is a limited defensive player due to his size and doesn’t always give the required effort; the Spurs are dreadful on that end, ranking dead last in the NBA. Still, they’re barely better on offense (29th), and I do think Graham is an upgrade over Richardson in that regard. In a vacuum, their values are closer than this trade might make it seem – look how similar their contracts are (Graham makes $11.55MM this season).
Unlike New Orleans, San Antonio has plenty of cap room going forward, so adding Graham’s longer-term salary isn’t burdensome. He just turned 28 years old and has already showed in his brief stint with the Spurs that he can still play, so trading him in the future for more assets could be an option.
Another aspect of this deal that I found interesting is that both Graham (No. 34 overall in 2018) and Richardson (No. 40 overall in 2015) are examples of successful second-round picks. The Spurs added four second-rounders in this deal while filling a positional need – that’s a quality return for a solid role player on an expiring deal.
- Sandro Mamukelashvili didn’t play until the fourth quarter Friday night, but he scored 11 points in his matchup with reigning MVP Nikola Jokic to help the Spurs surprise the Nuggets, per Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. Mamukelashvili has shown some promise in the three games since San Antonio claimed him off waivers last week, McDonald adds.
- Spurs rookie Julian Champagnie was a big scorer at St. John’s, but he tells Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News that he doesn’t mind being a role player while he tries to earn a steady NBA job. Champagnie has spent most of the season in the G League, but he got to play in a pair of games against the Rockets last weekend. “I don’t need too many shots,” he said. “I am a guy who fills the gap, and I am perfectly fine with that. It’s what I like to do anyway.”
Veteran center Willie Cauley-Stein‘s 10-day deal with the Rockets has expired, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Feigen adds that Houston does not have any players on the docket to fill his roster spot immediately.
Given that the Rockets are now carrying just 13 players on standard contracts, one below the NBA’s required minimum, they’ll have two weeks to add a 14th player. As Feigen notes, Cauley-Stein did not play while with Houston.
There’s more out of the Southwest Division:
- Rockets rookie Jabari Smith Jr. has struggled in an uneven first pro season, Feigen writes in a separate article. Selected with the third pick in 2022 out of Auburn, the 6’10” power forward has exhibited enticing defensive flashes, but has struggled offensively, Feigen notes.
- The rebuilding Spurs‘ current players can’t help but acknowledge the ongoing sweepstakes for the right to draft top 2023 prospect Victor Wembanyama, writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. “It’s hard not to avoid looking at the bottom,” forward Keita Bates-Diop said. “I don’t like looking at it when I see it.” Veteran San Antonio forward Doug McDermott also weighed in: “I know everyone is probably aware of (the standings). You see it on social media and it’s kind of hard to escape. But it’s not like I’m checking on my phone every night to see where we’re at.”
- Warriors power forward Draymond Green weighed in on the plight of troubled Grizzlies All-Star point guard Ja Morant on his self-titled podcast. Green opined that Morant could learn from All-Star veterans LeBron James and Stephen Curry, both of whom have been model citizens while operating as the de facto faces of the league. (hat tip to Evan Barnes of The Memphis Commercial Appeal for the transcription). “You can’t be the face of the NBA putting the NBA in harm’s way,” Green said. “A team competing at a championship level, No. 2 seed in the West, it’s being thrown away.”
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.
Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks
- 2022/23: $14.32MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Neutral
2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).
A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.
In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.
The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.
Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets
- 2022/23: $1.78MM
- 2023/24: $1.93MM team option
- Stock: Up
The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.
Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?
As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.
Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.
Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies
- 2022/23: $11.4MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).
There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.
On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.
For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.
Tre Jones, G, Spurs
- 2022/23: $1.78MM
- 2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
- Stock: Up
The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.
After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.
While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.
Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.
Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans
- 2022/23: $6.8MM
- 2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
- Stock: Down
A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.
Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.
He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.
We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.
However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:
Picks that will be protected
- Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
- Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs
The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.
Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.
Picks on track to change hands
- Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
- Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
- Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
- Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
- Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
- Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
- Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
- Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
- Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.
Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.
Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.
The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.
The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.
The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).
The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.
One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.
Picks that remain the most up in the air
- Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
- Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
- Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
- Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights
If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.
If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.
The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.
The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.
At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.