- The Spurs are one of the prime contenders for the top pick in the draft but the players aren’t thrilled about the losses piling up, according to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News. “We’re trying to get some wins to end the season, man,” center Zach Collins said. “We can’t fall into the trap of, ‘It’s OK that we’re losing.’”
- The Spurs have had to use a couple of 19-year-old rookies — Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley — at point guard lately due to a mysterious foot injury to starter Tre Jones. According to Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News, the Spurs aren’t quite sure what’s going on with Jones’ foot. “It’s a strange injury,” coach Gregg Popovich said. “He’s one of the toughest young men on the planet. There’s nothing on the (MRI) film or anything like that. He just can’t go.”
Coming into the 2022/23 season, there was some concern that the presence of Scoot Henderson and (especially) Victor Wembanyama at the top of the 2023 draft class could result in some pretty aggressive tanking from the bottom third of the NBA’s teams.
It hasn’t played out that way so far though, due to a competitive race for the top 10 spots in each conference. In the West, the top 13 teams all either hold a playoff or play-in spot or are no more than 1.5 games back of the No. 10 seed. It’s not quite as congested in the East, but the conference’s 13th team is only four games out of a play-in spot.
As a result, there have been only four teams in full-on “race for Wembanyama” mode, and one of those four clubs hasn’t exactly been in tanking mode as of late, winning its last four games. Here’s what the bottom of the NBA’s standings look like as of Sunday morning:
- Houston Rockets (13-46)
- San Antonio Spurs (14-47)
- Detroit Pistons (15-46)
- Charlotte Hornets (19-43)
- Orlando Magic (25-36)
- Indiana Pacers (27-35)
- Chicago Bulls (27-33)
- Los Angeles Lakers (28-32)
- (tie) Portland Trail Blazers / Oklahoma City Thunder / Washington Wizards (28-31)
Given that the odds for the No. 1 pick are the same for each of the NBA’s three worst teams, it seemed as if we’d get a four-team race for those three spots at the bottom of the standings. But the Hornets have won their last four games and appear far better positioned to continue getting victories than the Rockets (losers of eight in a row and 23 of their last 26), the Spurs (losers of 15 in a row and 21 of 22), and the Pistons (losers of four in a row and seven of their last eight).
Of course, if the Hornets were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d still end up with just 29 wins, so they may end up with the NBA’s fourth-worst record even if they finish strong. After all, the Bulls, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Wizards all seem motivated to make the play-in.
The Magic, Pacers, and Thunder are perhaps candidates for stealth end-of-season tanks in order to secure top-five lottery odds, since none of those clubs expected to be a playoff team this season. But they’ve been competitive all season and would probably have to start ruling out some of their top players due to injuries if they want to start winning less often (similar to what Portland did last year).
As for the race to the bottom among the NBA’s three worst teams, it’s hard to bet against the Rockets, who also finished with the league’s worst record in 2021 and 2022. But the Spurs are giving them a run for their money with their recent stretch of futility, posting an abysmal -15.8 net rating during their 15-game current losing streak. And the Pistons seem happy to experiment with new lineups while incorporating recently added players.
We want to know what you think. How will the race for lottery positioning play out the rest of the way? Which team will finish as the NBA’s worst? Has the Hornets’ recent success locked them into the fourth spot in the lottery standings? Are there any teams with 25 or more wins that you expect to go into full-on tank mode in the coming days or weeks?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in!
As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”
A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.
If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player drafted at No. 10 or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.
Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:
- A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
- A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
- A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.
A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.
However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.
The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.
So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:
- P.J. Washington, Hornets (60 starts)
- Tre Jones, Spurs (52 starts)
- Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls (49 starts)
Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.
As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.
Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:
- Coby White, Bulls (top-14 pick)
- Jaxson Hayes, Pelicans (top-14 pick)
- Rui Hachimura, Lakers (top-14 pick)
- Cameron Johnson, Nets (top-14 pick)
- Romeo Langford, Spurs (top-14 pick)
- Matisse Thybulle, Trail Blazers (No. 20 pick)
- Grant Williams, Celtics (No. 22 pick)
- Herbert Jones, Pelicans (second-round pick) *
- Kenyon Martin Jr., Rockets (second-round pick) *
- Naji Marshall, Pelicans (UDFA) *
(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)
White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.
Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.
It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.
Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.
Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.
Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.
With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.
- According to head coach Gregg Popovich, the Spurs are hoping swingman Devin Vassell will be able to return to action on March 2, the team’s next home game (Twitter link via Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News). Vassell has been out since January 2 after undergoing a left knee procedure.
Spurs veterans Gorgui Dieng and Doug McDermott will be tasked with helping to ensure that San Antonio’s young players continue to grow as the year winds down, writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News.
The team is currently mired in a 14-game losing streak en route to a prime lottery pick. McDonald writes that some of the coaching burden falls onto the team’s two most experienced players, McDermott and Dieng, who can operate as unofficial coaches on the floor.
How long both players remain on the roster beyond this season is anyone’s guess. Dieng, 33, is signed to a one-year minimum deal, and will be a free agent this summer. McDermott, 31, is the team’s highest-paid player, and is set to earn $13.8MM in the final season of his very tradable current deal, 2023/24.
There’s more out of the Lone Star State:
- New Spurs guard Devonte’ Graham is still acclimating to his new environs, McDonald reports in another piece. After arriving in San Antonio by way of the Pelicans in a trade, he has yet to suit up for his new club in a home game. “I’m just trying to get adjusted,” Graham said. “I just packed enough to maintain for a couple of weeks… I’m just living out of a suitcase right now.”
- Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber indicated to Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) that he expects he will miss at least Dallas’ next two games as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. Previous reporting suggested Kleber was hoping to return by the end of February.
- Rockets team president Rafael Stone sat done for an extensive discussion about the team’s rebuild with Kelly Iko of The Athletic. “When we came into (the rebuild), we didn’t really have talent on the roster,” Stone said. “We didn’t have any cap space, we didn’t have any draft picks. We now have been able to recoup our draft picks, we have more cap space this summer than anybody else and I think we have a very talented roster… We need to translate those things into a team that becomes competitive and hopefully starts winning and winning big over time. And that’s the challenge in front of us starting this summer, but continuing on.”
This is the third entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Raptors and Spurs…
On February 9, the Raptors acquired Jakob Poeltl from the Spurs in exchange for Khem Birch, the Raptors’ 2024 first-round pick (top-six protected), and Toronto’s second-round picks in 2023 and 2025.
The Raptors’ Perspective:
I found this to be one of the more fascinating trades of the deadline. The most obvious reason for that is many around the league thought the Raptors would – and should – be sellers.
Instead, the Raptors doubled down on their core group and made a win-now move to re-acquire Poeltl, whom the team drafted ninth overall back in 2016.
Toronto did not trade away a top-six protected first-rounder and two seconds for a rental player – the team plans to re-sign the center in free agency. Poeltl publicly said he could see it being a long-term fit.
Reports have indicated he could land a contract in the range of $15-20MM per year, so he will not be cheap.
The Raptors have lacked size and rebounding in the middle for multiple years, ranking 28th, 30th and 30th over the past three seasons in defensive rebounds per game, according to Basketball-Reference.com. At 7’1″, Poeltl is one of the tallest players in the NBA, and he is solid on the defensive glass, ranking 21st in the league with a 24.9% defensive rebounding percentage (Chris Boucher previously led the team at 21.4%, which ranks 39th).
Poeltl also enhances a team strength on the other end, as his 13.3% offensive rebounding percentage ranks seventh in the league (Boucher is 16th at 11.3%). The Raptors have ranked second and fourth, respectively, in offensive rebounds per game over the past two seasons.
The Austrian big man was consistently one of the league’s stingiest rim protectors from 2019-22, ranking third, fourth and sixth in defensive FG% at the rim over those three seasons, per NBA.com (minimum five shots defended and 40 games played). Opponents shot between 50.3% and 54.8% in those seasons with Poeltl defending them near rim (anything close to 50% is terrific).
Poeltl is allowing 62.2% at the rim in ‘22/23, which isn’t great, but the Spurs have by far the worst defense in the league – I wouldn’t read too much into that drop-off. For context, San Antonio is allowing opponents to shoot 50.9% from the field, which is dead last in the NBA, and 39.4% from three, which is also last.
On top of his rebounding and rim protection, the 27-year-old is a solid screener, and he improved tremendously as both a scorer and a passer during his time in San Antonio. Over the past two seasons with the Spurs, Poeltl averaged 12.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.5 blocks per night in 113 games (27.8 MPG).
Poeltl, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet were all rookies in ’16/17 and spent their first two seasons together, so there is a level of familiarity not only with the organization but with Toronto’s longest-tenured players. That theoretically should help Poeltl re-acclimate quickly.
He brings a different look and dynamic to a team that had lacked a true center for a few years. The Raptors tried to play rookie Christian Koloko in a similar role to start the year, but he needs more time to develop.
The Raptors went 48-34 and made the playoffs as the East’s No. 5 seed last season. The front office hopes swapping out a non-contributor in Birch for Poeltl will not only galvanize the group amid a disappointing 28-31 season, but also enhance the team in ways that haven’t been seen since Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka left in free agency back in 2020.
However, for all of Poeltl’s strengths, he is a non-shooter who is hard to rely on at the end of games due to his abysmal free throw shooting – he’s at 53.1% for his career. He might help others get better looks due to his screening and complementary play-making, but he doesn’t directly address the team’s 27th-ranked 3-point percentage (33.6%).
I also have yet to mention the contractual issues the team will be facing in the offseason, as Poeltl, VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are all about to hit unrestricted free agency, barring unforeseen circumstances (VanVleet and Trent are expected to decline their player options for ‘23/24). This roster could get very expensive very quickly, and it’s hard to see any short-term championship upside unless Scottie Barnes develops into a star sooner rather than later.
Shortly after the deal, president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri implied that the Raptors were less than thrilled with some of the trade offers they were getting for their players.
“The way I look at the deadline (is) it’s really not a great place to make long-term decisions,” Ujiri said, per Doug Smith of The Toronto Star. “In the summer, there are 29 losers and one winner. There are 29 teams looking to do more.”
There’s nothing wrong with that statement from a philosophical standpoint. But what he said and what the Raptors actually did at the deadline don’t align.
Toronto traded away a fairly lightly protected 2024 first-round pick (it’s top-six protected through 2026) and a couple second-rounders to bolster the team this season and have Poeltl’s Bird rights in free agency to give him a long-term contract. Everything about this deal involved long-term decisions and consequences.
Ujiri also gave some insight into how the Raptors’ front office views the team’s three potential free agents, according to Smith.
“We are always focused on trying to retain our players,” Ujiri said. “That’s always the focus for us, and we’ll be focused on that with these guys and see how we perform the rest of the season and make that assessment.”
Obviously, part of the reason why VanVleet and Trent were retained is that the Raptors value them more than what other teams offered. There hasn’t been any solid reporting regarding exactly what Toronto was offered, so there’s no way to evaluate that stance from an outside perspective, but it’s reasonable enough on the surface – the Raptors have a severe lack of backcourt depth and they are the team’s two best guards.
Adding Poeltl and trading away those picks, particularly the first-rounder, indicates that the Raptors aren’t entertaining a full-scale rebuild anytime soon. There’s no reason they would need to – all of their best players are 28 years old or younger, so they should be able to retool if necessary without completely tearing it down.
We’ll see what they do in the offseason with some of their core players, but they may have missed an opportunity to go for a “soft” rebuild by cashing in on an asset or two and improving their lottery odds in what’s supposed to be a strong draft. Acquiring Poeltl just to increase the likelihood of getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs again this season is pretty strange, even if he’s a good player that fills a need.
The Spurs’ perspective:
San Antonio’s side of the deal is relatively straightforward. My best guess is either Poeltl let the Spurs know that he wasn’t going to re-sign this summer, or the Spurs decided they didn’t want to pay him his market price on a long-term contract in free agency while they’re in the infancy stage of a rebuild.
Birch was a solid backup center with Orlando, but saw his minutes cut as the Magic pivoted to a rebuild. The two sides reached a buyout agreement in April 2021 so he could get more playing time. The Montreal native caught on with the Raptors and impressed during his 19 games (30.4 MPG) with the club at the end of that season, averaging 11.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 blocks.
Unfortunately, knee problems have derailed his career after he re-signed with the Raptors on a three-year, $20MM deal, with Birch averaging just 3.9 points and 3.5 rebounds in 75 games (15.4 MPG) over the past two seasons.
Moving off Birch’s guaranteed $7MM salary for ‘23/24 will help clear the books somewhat for Toronto. It seems unlikely that the 30-year-old will have much a role with the rebuilding Spurs after he gets healthy, but they have plenty of cap room available next season so adding him isn’t burdensome beyond taking up a roster spot.
The Spurs were reportedly looking for a couple first-round picks for Poeltl. I haven’t discussed this much in the past, but not all first-round picks are of equal value. That may seem like a very obvious statement, but it’s worth keeping in mind when reading rumors or evaluating trades.
I’m paraphrasing because I don’t remember which episode it was, but ESPN’s Zach Lowe brought up on his podcast a few weeks ago that he spoke to an NBA executive who said their team breaks down the value of first-round picks into tiers. Unprotected picks from bad teams in the upcoming draft or from any team years down the line are the most valuable, followed by lightly protected picks (top-four or so), then moderately protected (roughly top-eight) and finally lottery-protected picks. Anything protected beyond the lottery doesn’t have much value because it could take a while to convey, if at all.
If the season ended today and the Raptors lost in the play-in tournament, their 2023 pick would have the ninth-best lottery odds. Are they a lock to make the playoffs next season? I would certainly say no, considering how mediocre they’ve been this season.
The Raptors have already showed their hand in that they have no intention of rebuilding. They wouldn’t have traded a solid first-round pick otherwise. Sure, they protected themselves a little bit, but they’re unlikely to be at the very bottom of the standings in 2024 — if they miss the playoffs, the pick is more likely to be in the latter half of the lottery than in the top six.
Let’s say the Raptors finish around .500 next season, miss the playoffs, and have the 12th-best lottery odds. The Spurs could very easily possess two lottery picks in 2024 in that scenario, and it’s not far-fetched.
The 2023 second-rounder the Spurs acquired from the Raptors would land No. 39 at the moment as well, which is pretty early. That certainly doesn’t have the same value as a late first-rounder, but it’s much better than, say, the No. 50 pick, which is often used on two-way players or draft-and-stash candidates.
Point being, there’s a strong case to be made that what San Antonio received in this deal is better value than getting a couple lottery-protected first-rounders from another team. That technically would have been receiving two first-round picks, even if they were conditional.
Prioritizing center minutes to Zach Collins and Charles Bassey also makes sense for the Spurs from a developmental perspective, as they’re both younger than Poeltl and less of a known commodity.
I personally think the Spurs got outstanding value for Poeltl given that he’s on an expiring $9.4MM contract and could be earning double that next season. He’s a good role player, but he isn’t the type who is going to significantly move the needle when the players around him are still in the early stages of their development.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Tuesday that Quin Snyder, Kenny Atkinson, and Charles Lee will be among the Hawks‘ head coaching candidates as the team searches for a permanent replacement for Nate McMillan, who was let go during the All-Star break.
Shams Charania of The Athletic confirms those names and adds a few more to the Hawks’ list of possible targets, reporting (via Twitter) that Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez, Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson, and South Bay Lakers coach Miles Simon are expected to receive consideration from Atlanta.
Fernandez has generated some head coaching buzz in the past, but as far as I can tell, this is the first time either Johnson or Simon has been connected to a head coaching opening at the NBA level.
Here’s more from around the Southeast:
- McMillan took the fall for the Hawks‘ “organizational-wide failure” this season, according to Jeff Schultz of The Athletic, who argues that – even if McMillan’s dismissal was justified – the team’s problems extend beyond the job the head coach did. Schultz cites front office dysfunction as one key issue for the Hawks in recent months.
- Admiral Schofield‘s new contract with the Magic is a two-year, minimum-salary deal, Hoops Rumors has learned. Schofield will earn $506,508 for the rest of this season and Orlando will hold a $1,997,238 team option on the forward for 2023/24.
- Wizards forward Anthony Gill hasn’t played a major role in D.C. this season, averaging a modest 10.0 minutes per game in 41 appearances. However, Gill’s enthusiasm and positivity have made him an important culture-setter for the club, as Ava Wallace outlines in an interesting story for The Washington Post. Gill signed a guaranteed two-year, minimum-salary deal with the Wizards last summer, so he remains under contract for $2MM next season.
- Former Spurs and Nuggets owner Red McCombs has died at the age of 95, Carmini Danini and Peggy O’Hare of the San Antonio Express-News report. McCombs owned the San Antonio franchise on two separate occasions, selling his stake the second time in 1993. In a league statement, commissioner Adam Silver said “Red McCombs brought the Spurs to San Antonio and was a driving force in creating the modern NBA. He was an innovator and savvy entrepreneur who never shied away from taking risks. We mourn Red’s passing and send our heartfelt condolences to his family and friends and the Spurs organization.”
There’s optimism that the Spurs will get some key players back shortly after the All-Star break, head coach Gregg Popovich said on Wednesday (Twitter link via Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News). According to Popovich, Tre Jones, Romeo Langford, and even Devin Vassell are all getting close to returning.
Jones has missed six of the Spurs’ last seven games due to left foot soreness, while Langford has been out since January 23 with a left adductor injury. As for Vassell, he underwent a procedure on his left knee in early January and has been on the mend since then. All three players were part of San Antonio’s starting five before being sidelined.
- Charles Bassey‘s new four-year contract with the Spurs has matching $2.6MM cap hits in its first two seasons, both of which are fully guaranteed, Hoops Rumors has learned. Bassey’s third- and fourth-year salaries are each $2.5MM and are non-guaranteed. His third-year salary would become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1, 2024 and his fourth-year salary would be guaranteed if he stays under contract through August 1, 2025.