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Trade Breakdown: Jakob Poeltl To The Raptors

February 22nd, 2023 at 1:42pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the third entry in our series breaking down the significant tr ades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Raptors and Spurs…

On February 9, the Raptors acquired Jakob Poeltl from the Spurs in exchange for Khem Birch, the Raptors’ 2024 first-round pick (top-six protected), and Toronto’s second-round picks in 2023 and 2025.

The Raptors’ Perspective:

I found this to be one of the more fascinating trades of the deadline. The most obvious reason for that is many around the league thought the Raptors would – and should – be sellers.

Instead, the Raptors doubled down on their core group and made a win-now move to re-acquire Poeltl, whom the team drafted ninth overall back in 2016.

Toronto did not trade away a top-six protected first-rounder and two seconds for a rental player – the team plans to re-sign the center in free agency. Poeltl publicly said he could see it being a long-term fit.

Reports have indicated he could land a contract in the range of $15-20MM per year, so he will not be cheap.

The Raptors have lacked size and rebounding in the middle for multiple years, ranking 28^th, 30^th and 30^th over the past three seasons in defensive rebounds per game, according to Basketball-Reference.com. At 7’1″, Poeltl is one of the tallest players in the NBA, and he is solid on the defensive glass, ranking 21^st in the league with a 24.9% defensive rebounding percentage (Chris Boucher previously led the team at 21.4%, which ranks 39^th).

Poeltl also enhances a team strength on the other end, as his 13.3% offensive rebounding percentage ranks seventh in the league (Boucher is 16^th at 11.3%). The Raptors have ranked second and fourth, respectively, in offensive rebounds per game over the past two seasons.

The Austrian big man was consistently one of the league’s stingiest rim protectors from 2019-22, ranking third, fourth and sixth in defensive FG% at the rim over those three seasons, per NBA.com (minimum five shots defended and 40 games played). Opponents shot between 50.3% and 54.8% in those seasons with Poeltl defending them near rim (anything close to 50% is terrific).

Poeltl is allowing 62.2% at the rim in ‘22/23, which isn’t great, but the Spurs have by far the worst defense in the league – I wouldn’t read too much into that drop-off. For context, San Antonio is allowing opponents to shoot 50.9% from the field, which is dead last in the NBA, and 39.4% from three, which is also last.

On top of his rebounding and rim protection, the 27-year-old is a solid screener, and he improved tremendously as both a scorer and a passer during his time in San Antonio. Over the past two seasons with the Spurs, Poeltl averaged 12.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.5 blocks per night in 113 games (27.8 MPG).

Poeltl, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet were all rookies in ’16/17 and spent their first two seasons together, so there is a level of familiarity not only with the organization but with Toronto’s longest-tenured players. That theoretically should help Poeltl re-acclimate quickly.

He brings a different look and dynamic to a team that had lacked a true center for a few years. The Raptors tried to play rookie Christian Koloko in a similar role to start the year, but he needs more time to develop.

The Raptors went 48-34 and made the playoffs as the East’s No. 5 seed last season. The front office hopes swapping out a non-contributor in Birch for Poeltl will not only galvanize the group amid a disappointing 28-31 season, but also enhance the team in ways that haven’t been seen since Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka left in free agency back in 2020.

However, for all of Poeltl’s strengths, he is a non-shooter who is hard to rely on at the end of games due to his abysmal free throw shooting – he’s at 53.1% for his career. He might help others get better looks due to his screening and complementary play-making, but he doesn’t directly address the team’s 27th-ranked 3-point percentage (33.6%).

I also have yet to mention the contractual issues the team will be facing in the offseason, as Poeltl, VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are all about to hit unrestricted free agency, barring unforeseen circumstances (VanVleet and Trent are expected to decline their player options for ‘23/24). This roster could get very expensive very quickly, and it’s hard to see any short-term championship upside unless Scottie Barnes develops into a star sooner rather than later.

Shortly after the deal, president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri implied that the Raptors were less than thrilled with some of the trade offers they were getting for their players.

“The way I look at the deadline (is) it’s really not a great place to make long-term decisions,” Ujiri said, per Doug Smith of The Toronto Star. “In the summer, there are 29 losers and one winner. There are 29 teams looking to do more.”

There’s nothing wrong with that statement from a philosophical standpoint. But what he said and what the Raptors actually did at the deadline don’t align.

Toronto traded away a fairly lightly protected 2024 first-round pick (it’s top-six protected through 2026) and a couple second-rounders to bolster the team this season and have Poeltl’s Bird rights in free agency to give him a long-term contract. Everything about this deal involved long-term decisions and consequences.

Ujiri also gave some insight into how the Raptors’ front office views the team’s three potential free agents, according to Smith.

“We are always focused on trying to retain our players,” Ujiri said. “That’s always the focus for us, and we’ll be focused on that with these guys and see how we perform the rest of the season and make that assessment.”

Obviously, part of the reason why VanVleet and Trent were retained is that the Raptors value them more than what other teams offered. There hasn’t been any solid reporting regarding exactly what Toronto was offered, so there’s no way to evaluate that stance from an outside perspective, but it’s reasonable enough on the surface – the Raptors have a severe lack of backcourt depth and they are the team’s two best guards.

Adding Poeltl and trading away those picks, particularly the first-rounder, indicates that the Raptors aren’t entertaining a full-scale rebuild anytime soon. There’s no reason they would need to – all of their best players are 28 years old or younger, so they should be able to retool if necessary without completely tearing it down.

We’ll see what they do in the offseason with some of their core players, but they may have missed an opportunity to go for a “soft” rebuild by cashing in on an asset or two and improving their lottery odds in what’s supposed to be a strong draft. Acquiring Poeltl just to increase the likelihood of getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs again this season is pretty strange, even if he’s a good player that fills a need.

The Spurs’ perspective:

San Antonio’s side of the deal is relatively straightforward. My best guess is either Poeltl let the Spurs know that he wasn’t going to re-sign this summer, or the Spurs decided they didn’t want to pay him his market price on a long-term contract in free agency while they’re in the infancy stage of a rebuild.

Birch was a solid backup center with Orlando, but saw his minutes cut as the Magic pivoted to a rebuild. The two sides reached a buyout agreement in April 2021 so he could get more playing time. The Montreal native caught on with the Raptors and impressed during his 19 games (30.4 MPG) with the club at the end of that season, averaging 11.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 blocks.

Unfortunately, knee problems have derailed his career after he re-signed with the Raptors on a three-year, $20MM deal, with Birch averaging just 3.9 points and 3.5 rebounds in 75 games (15.4 MPG) over the past two seasons.

Moving off Birch’s guaranteed $7MM salary for ‘23/24 will help clear the books somewhat for Toronto. It seems unlikely that the 30-year-old will have much a role with the rebuilding Spurs after he gets healthy, but they have plenty of cap room available next season so adding him isn’t burdensome beyond taking up a roster spot.

The Spurs were reportedly looking for a couple first-round picks for Poeltl. I haven’t discussed this much in the past, but not all first-round picks are of equal value. That may seem like a very obvious statement, but it’s worth keeping in mind when reading rumors or evaluating trades.

I’m paraphrasing because I don’t remember which episode it was, but ESPN’s Zach Lowe brought up on his podcast a few weeks ago that he spoke to an NBA executive who said their team breaks down the value of first-round picks into tiers. Unprotected picks from bad teams in the upcoming draft or from any team years down the line are the most valuable, followed by lightly protected picks (top-four or so), then moderately protected (roughly top-eight) and finally lottery-protected picks. Anything protected beyond the lottery doesn’t have much value because it could take a while to convey, if at all.

If the season ended today and the Raptors lost in the play-in tournament, their 2023 pick would have the ninth-best lottery odds. Are they a lock to make the playoffs next season? I would certainly say no, considering how mediocre they’ve been this season.

The Raptors have already showed their hand in that they have no intention of rebuilding. They wouldn’t have traded a solid first-round pick otherwise. Sure, they protected themselves a little bit, but they’re unlikely to be at the very bottom of the standings in 2024 — if they miss the playoffs, the pick is more likely to be in the latter half of the lottery than in the top six.

Let’s say the Raptors finish around .500 next season, miss the playoffs, and have the 12th-best lottery odds. The Spurs could very easily possess two lottery picks in 2024 in that scenario, and it’s not far-fetched.

The 2023 second-rounder the Spurs acquired from the Raptors would land No. 39 at the moment as well, which is pretty early. That certainly doesn’t have the same value as a late first-rounder, but it’s much better than, say, the No. 50 pick, which is often used on two-way players or draft-and-stash candidates.

Point being, there’s a strong case to be made that what San Antonio received in this deal is better value than getting a couple lottery-protected first-rounders from another team. That technically would have been receiving two first-round picks, even if they were conditional.

Prioritizing center minutes to Zach Collins and Charles Bassey also makes sense for the Spurs from a developmental perspective, as they’re both younger than Poeltl and less of a known commodity.

I personally think the Spurs got outstanding value for Poeltl given that he’s on an expiring $9.4MM contract and could be earning double that next season. He’s a good role player, but he isn’t the type who is going to significantly move the needle when the players around him are still in the early stages of their development.

Southeast Notes: Hawks’ Coaching Search, Schofield, Gill

February 22nd, 2023 at 10:19am CST by Luke Adams

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Tuesday that Quin Snyder, Kenny Atkinson, and Charles Lee will be among the Hawks‘ head coaching candidates as the team searches for a permanent replacement for Nate McMillan, who was let go during the All-Star break.

Shams Charania of The Athletic confirms those names and adds a few more to the Hawks’ list of possible targets, reporting (via Twitter) that Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez, Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson, and South Bay Lakers coach Miles Simon are expected to receive consideration from Atlanta.

Fernandez has generated some head coaching buzz in the past, but as far as I can tell, this is the first time either Johnson or Simon has been connected to a head coaching opening at the NBA level.

Here’s more from around the Southeast:

McMillan took the fall for the Hawks‘ “organizational-wide failure” this season, according to Jeff Schultz of The Athletic, who argues that – even if McMillan’s dismissal was justified – the team’s problems extend beyond the job the head coach did. Schultz cites front office dysfunction as one key issue for the Hawks in recent months.
Admiral Schofield‘s new contract with the Magic is a two-year, minimum-salary deal, Hoops Rumors has learned. Schofield will earn $506,508 for the rest of this season and Orlando will hold a $1,997,238 team option on the forward for 2023/24.
Wizards forward Anthony Gill hasn’t played a major role in D.C. this season, averaging a modest 10.0 minutes per game in 41 appearances. However, Gill’s enthusiasm and positivity have made him an important culture-setter for the club, as Ava Wallace outlines in an interesting story for The Washington Post. Gill signed a guaranteed two-year, minimum-salary deal with the Wizards last summer, so he remains under contract for $2MM next season.

Former Owner McCombs Dies At 95

February 20th, 2023 at 9:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Former Spurs and Nuggets owner Red McCombs has died at the age of 95, Carmini Danini and Peggy O’Hare of the San Antonio Express-News report. McCombs owned the San Antonio franchise on two separate occasions, selling his stake the second time in 1993. In a league statement, commissioner Adam Silver said “Red McCombs brought the Spurs to San Antonio and was a driving force in creating the modern NBA. He was an innovator and savvy entrepreneur who never shied away from taking risks. We mourn Red’s passing and send our heartfelt condolences to his family and friends and the Spurs organization.”

Spurs Notes: Jones, Langford, Vassell, Bassey

February 17th, 2023 at 12:15pm CST by Luke Adams

There’s optimism that the Spurs will get some key players back shortly after the All-Star break, head coach Gregg Popovich said on Wednesday (Twitter link via Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News). According to Popovich, Tre Jones, Romeo Langford, and even Devin Vassell are all getting close to returning.

Jones has missed six of the Spurs’ last seven games due to left foot soreness, while Langford has been out since January 23 with a left adductor injury. As for Vassell, he underwent a procedure on his left knee in early January and has been on the mend since then. All three players were part of San Antonio’s starting five before being sidelined.

Charles Bassey‘s new four-year contract with the Spurs has matching $2.6MM cap hits in its first two seasons, both of which are fully guaranteed, Hoops Rumors has learned. Bassey’s third- and fourth-year salaries are each $2.5MM and are non-guaranteed. His third-year salary would become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1, 2024 and his fourth-year salary would be guaranteed if he stays under contract through August 1, 2025.

Jazz Waive Leandro Bolmaro

February 16th, 2023 at 7:30pm CST by Rory Maher

7:30pm: Bolmaro actually reached a buyout agreement with the Jazz, reports Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune (via Twitter). Bolmaro wanted to return to Europe in order to get playing time and Utah accommodated his request, per Walden.

4:55pm: The Jazz have officially waived Bolmaro, per NBA.com’s transaction log. Utah now has 13 players on standard contracts and will have up to two weeks to add a 14th man.

2:24pm: The Jazz intend to waive Leandro Bolmaro, sources tell Shams Charania and Tony Jones of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Bolmaro, a 6’6″ guard from Argentina, was the 23rd overall pick of the 2020 draft, but wound up signing his contract a year later, so he’s only in his second NBA season. The Jazz declined their third-year team option on the 22-year-old before the 2022/23 season began, which indicated that he might not be in Utah’s long-term plans.

As Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune notes (via Twitter), the Jazz’s backcourt was shorthanded during Wednesday’s loss to Memphis — Russell Westbrook is away from the team as he explores his options, and Collin Sexton exited the game early with a left hamstring injury (Twitter link via Larsen). The fact that Utah opted not to use Bolmaro in that situation was a pretty ominous sign.

Larsen has heard the Spurs may have been interested in Bolmaro in the past. San Antonio’s 17-man roster is full at this point, however.

Bolmaro spent his rookie season with the Timberwolves, but was sent to Utah as part of the Rudy Gobert trade. In 49 career games, including 14 this season with the Jazz, Bolmaro has averaged just 6.3 minutes per contest.

If he clears waivers, the former first-round pick will receive $2,471,160 from Utah and will become an unrestricted free agent.

Julian Champagnie Claimed Off Waivers By Spurs

February 16th, 2023 at 6:02pm CST by Rory Maher

6:02pm: San Antonio confirmed in an email that it claimed Champagnie. He will wear No. 30 for the Spurs.

4:20pm: The Spurs have claimed Julian Champagnie off waivers, sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowki (Twitter link).

An undrafted rookie out of St. John’s, Champagnie had been with Philadelphia on a two-way contract, but he was recently waived in favor of Mac McClung. The Spurs have an open two-way spot, so they won’t need to release anyone to acquire Champagnie.

The 21-year-old spent three college seasons with the Red Storm, averaging 19.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, 2.0 SPG and 1.1 BPG on .414/.337/.781 shooting in 31 games (34.2 MPG) as a junior. He only appeared in two games with the Sixers for a total of seven minutes, having spent the majority of his first pro season with their G League affiliate, the Delaware Blue Coats.

The 6’8″ forward had an impressive run during the fall Showcase Cup, averaging 21.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG and 1.2 BPG on .465/.347/.839 shooting in 14 games (35.1 MPG). His numbers have declined since the regular season began, with Champagnie recording 14.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 0.9 BPG on .419/.352/.875 shooting in 18 games (28.7 MPG) for the Blue Coats.

The Spurs now have a full 15-man standard roster and both two-way slots filled — Dominick Barlow occupies the other.

Details On Bassey's New Contract, Plus His Reaction

February 15th, 2023 at 9:21pm CST by Rory Maher

Spurs center Charles Bassey recently received a promotion to a standard contract, signing a four-year, $10.2MM deal, including $5.2MM guaranteed. Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News (subscriber link) reports that Bassey’s contract features non-guaranteed salaries in years three and four and he was paid $3MM up front for the 2022/23 season. The 22-year-old called it a “surreal” experience. “I’m not going to lie, it felt good,” Bassey said. “I feel like the Spurs believe in me and believe in what I bring to the team. They trust me, and I just appreciate that.”

Spurs Notes: Graham, Birch, Sochan, Barlow

February 15th, 2023 at 7:46am CST by Luke Adams

Devonte’ Graham dropped 15 games and seven spots in the standings by virtue of the deadline-day deal that sent him from New Orleans to San Antonio, but the Spurs guard intends to make the most of his new situation, telling reporters after the trade that he has no problem playing for a rebuilding team.

“Rebuilding, but they play hard,” Graham said of the Spurs, per Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. “I had the same experience in Charlotte, so I kind of know what this feels like, trying to rebuild but just playing the right way, playing hard and continuing to try to get better.”

After seeing his minutes reduced significantly in New Orleans this season, Graham is also welcoming the opportunity to play a more significant role in San Antonio. He averaged 15.3 minutes per game in 53 appearances for the Pelicans — that number has jumped to 29.7 MPG in his first three games with the Spurs.

“It’s a new adventure, new team, new city,” Graham said. “Optimistic about it. I have always been good at adjusting. Grateful to be around this franchise, a legendary coach (Gregg Popovich) and this young group.”

Here’s more on the Spurs:

Veteran center Khem Birch, acquired from Toronto in the Jakob Poeltl trade, has a right knee issue that will keep him sidelined for the foreseeable future, per Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. Birch is with the Spurs on their current road trip, but won’t practice or play until being examined over the All-Star break by the team’s medical staff. “It’s going to be quite a while,” Popovich said of Birch’s timeline to return.
Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan doesn’t fit the mold of stoic former Spurs stars like Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard, but the team doesn’t mind the rookie’s tendency to “talk crap,” as Popovich puts it. “He’s just so happy to be in the NBA and playing basketball,” Popovich said, according to McDonald. “That’s what he does. It’s his main interest. … Beyond what you see skill-wise out there and IQ-wise, he’s got that heart and courage. He’s not afraid of any situation. He’s not embarrassed to screw up. He just goes on to the next play. It’s a perfect example for how you’ve got to play.”
Determining how to properly evaluate prospects coming out of the relatively new Overtime Elite program remains a work in progress for NBA scouts. Still, Spurs two-way player Dominick Barlow has no regrets about his OTE experience and believes it helped prepare him for the next level, McDonald writes for The Express-News. “There are pros and cons, like you are not going to be able to play in college and get that kind of experience,” Barlow said. “That wasn’t a big thing for me. I really wanted to work on my game, that the jump I was able to make in a year was good enough to outweigh that (college experience). I was happy with it.”
In case you missed it, Charles Bassey signed a four-year contract with the Spurs that reportedly includes $5.2MM in guaranteed money.

Charles Bassey Signs Four-Year Deal With Spurs

February 14th, 2023 at 4:08pm CST by Luke Adams

4:08pm: Bassey’s deal with the Spurs is now official, the team confirmed in a press release.

3:23pm: Spurs big man Charles Bassey isn’t just having his two-way contract converted into a rest-of-season deal with the team. He’ll sign a four-year, $10.2MM pact with San Antonio, agents Adie von Gontard and Daveed Cohen tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Bassey, who joined the Spurs in October on a two-way contract after being waived by the 76ers, has appeared in 25 games for the club so far this season, averaging 4.7 points and 5.3 rebounds in 13.6 minutes per night. The 22-year-old was the 53rd overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Bassey is in position to take on a more significant role following the trade that sent starting center Jakob Poeltl to Toronto. A report on Sunday indicated that he was expected to be promoted to the standard roster to fill the open roster spot created when Stanley Johnson was waived.

The Spurs still have a ton of available 2022/23 cap room and are well below the salary floor, so they’ll be incentivized to front-load Bassey’s contract. We don’t know the exact structure yet, but San Antonio could construct a descending four-year, $10.2MM deal that is worth Bassey’s minimum (about $2.26MM) in year four.

According to Bassey’s agents, the contract will include $5.2MM in guaranteed money, which suggests it’ll probably be guaranteed for this season and 2023/24.

Spurs Waive Stanley Johnson, Will Convert Charles Bassey To Standard Contract

February 12th, 2023 at 12:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Spurs have released veteran forward Stanley Johnson, the team announced today in a press release.

Johnson signed with San Antonio in mid-December and averaged 5.8 points and 3.2 rebounds off the bench in 30 games while shooting 45% from three-point range. Despite being drafted in 2015, he’s only 26 and could spark some interest among contending teams on the buyout market.

Johnson was a part-time starter last season with the Lakers, who have a roster spot open after making several moves at the trade deadline. Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report isn’t sure if L.A. can bring back Johnson because he was traded to the Jazz in August and subsequently waived (Twitter link), but Pincus believes the language in the collective bargaining agreement is murky enough that it might be worth a phone call to the league to verify.

The Spurs intend to use their roster opening to convert Charles Bassey‘s two-way deal to a standard contract, tweets Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. San Antonio signed Bassey after the Sixers waived him in October, and he’s averaging 4.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in 24 games.