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Latest On Deandre Ayton

May 24th, 2022 at 11:38am CST by Luke Adams

Suns restricted free agent Deandre Ayton is expected to command a maximum-salary contract this offseason, but there’s skepticism around the NBA that Phoenix will be eager to match that sort of deal, says Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report.

As Fischer explains, there are multiple reasons why the Suns may not be enthusiastic about making a substantial financial commitment to Ayton.

For one, league figures believe the team’s front office is reluctant to pay any center a salary of $30MM+ annually, according to Fischer. It’s probably unwise to draw any conclusions based on small samples in the regular season, but Fischer notes that the team didn’t miss a beat in January when Ayton was unavailable and modestly-paid centers like JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo filled his role.

The Suns have already invested heavily in Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Mikal Bridges, and would push their team salary well beyond the luxury tax line if they were to sign Ayton to a lucrative new deal. Robert Sarver has said the right things publicly about his willingness to become a taxpayer, but it’s unclear what sort of appetite he’d have for a significant tax bill, especially if it spans multiple seasons. It also remains unclear how the NBA’s investigation into Sarver’s conduct may affect the ownership situation.

Additionally, league sources with knowledge of the situation have suggested to Fischer that Ayton may not be one of head coach Monty Williams‘ favorite players. Fischer has heard that Williams has “griped about Ayton’s waning focus.” The big man memorably played just 17 minutes in the final game of Phoenix’s season earlier this month, with Williams brusquely referring to the decision as “internal” in his post-game comments.

The Hawks, Pistons, and Trail Blazers have been the teams most frequently linked to Ayton by league personnel, according to Fischer, who says multiple team executives have also mentioned the Hornets and Spurs as potential suitors.

Some of those clubs would have the cap room necessary to make a serious bid for Ayton, but the Suns would control the process as a result of their ability to match any offer sheet. If a rival suitor is unsure whether or not Phoenix would match its offer for the 23-year-old, attempting to negotiate a sign-and-trade to acquire him outright might be the safe move. There’s a belief that the Suns would be open to that idea, Fischer writes.

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Draft Notes: Sochan, Combine, Withdrawals, Davison

May 23rd, 2022 at 9:14am CST by Luke Adams

The Pelicans and Nuggets are among the teams believed to have interest in Baylor forward Jeremy Sochan, while the Spurs are viewed as a “strong fit” for him, Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic writes in his recap of last week’s draft combine.

According to Vorkunov, one team executive put Sochan’s floor at the No. 12 pick, which means the Nuggets – who control No. 21 – would have to trade up if they want a shot at him. He’s far more likely to be available for the Pelicans (No. 8) or Spurs (No. 9).

Vorkunov’s article includes several more tidbits on the combine, including a look at some of the more outside-the-box questions teams asked in their interviews with prospects. According to Vorkunov, one club challenged Christian Braun to repeated staring contests, while the Nuggets told players during their meetings that if they could name enough players on the club’s roster, one of their team officials would do push-ups.

Here’s more on the 2022 NBA draft:

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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

May 22nd, 2022 at 5:36pm CST by Luke Adams

After making the playoffs for 22 straight seasons, the Spurs finished with middling 32-39 and 33-39 records in 2019/20 and ’20/21, seemingly reluctant to overhaul their veteran roster.

They finally leaned into a youth movement last offseason when they sent DeMar DeRozan to Chicago in a sign-and-trade deal, and fully committed to that retooling process during the season. Historically averse to wheeling and dealing during the season, the Spurs were uncharacteristically active in 2021/22, making four pre-deadline trades, including one that sent Derrick White – one of their longest-tenured players – to Boston.

The end result – a 34-48 record and a quick exit in the play-in tournament – wasn’t that different from the two years prior, but the Spurs seem to have a more clear-cut direction going forward, as they build around All-Star guard Dejounte Murray and a collection of young talent that includes 2021 first-round pick Joshua Primo and extension-eligible forward Keldon Johnson.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:

The Spurs will have a handful of decisions to make this summer on players eligible for free agency and players who have non-guaranteed contracts for next season.

Lonnie Walker, the team’s most notable free agent, had an up-and-down 2021/22 showing after enjoying a mini-breakout in ’20/21. A career 36.9% three-point shooter entering the season, Walker made a career-worst 31.4% attempts from beyond the arc, though he did establish a new career-high with 12.1 points per game.

Armed with plenty of cap flexibility and the right of first refusal, the Spurs are in a position to re-sign Walker if they want to, but they’ll have to determine whether or not he fits into their long-term plans, given all the other wings on the roster. Primo, Johnson, and Devin Vassell look for now like keepers, while Josh Richardson and Romeo Langford are in the mix on the wing for the time being, though they’ll both be entering contract years.

The Spurs have shown a willingness to give their first-round picks a second contract even if those players haven’t yet fully realized their potential, and sometimes it pays off, as in the case of Murray, a Most Improved Player runner-up in his sixth season. But the team could open up significant cap room by letting go of Walker and his $13MM+ cap hold. I expect they’ll at least extend him a qualifying offer and then see if he draws much interest elsewhere before making a final decision.

Devontae Cacok and Joe Wieskamp, who received in-season promotions from two-way deals to standard contracts, are also free agents, but they likely won’t be in line for more than minimum salaries if they re-sign.

The Spurs seem like a good bet to bring back most or all of their players on non-guaranteed contracts, including Zach Collins, whose $7.35MM salary is already half guaranteed — he showed enough in his return from multiple foot surgeries to warrant a longer look. Keita Bates-Diop, Tre Jones, and Jock Landale have non-guaranteed minimum deals and should be back unless San Antonio wants to open up an extra roster spot or two.

While parting with Walker would open up significant cap room for the Spurs, they haven’t typically been major players in free agency and could use any space they do have to take on an unwanted contract or two along with a draft pick, as they did during the season with Goran Dragic and Tomas Satoransky. Still, it’s worth noting that San Antonio has the flexibility to be a legitimate threat for a Miles Bridges-type restricted free agent if there’s a specific player the front office likes.

The most exciting night of San Antonio’s offseason might come on June 23 — no team holds more first-round picks or more overall selections than the Spurs, who currently control Nos. 9, 20, 25, and 38. Those picks will create a ton of options for the front office, which may not be inclined to add three or four rookies to the roster for 2022/23. Moving up, moving down, trading a first-rounder for future picks, or making a trade involving a handful of picks and players are all possibilities the club will likely entertain.

Assuming the Spurs remain at No. 9, it will be interesting to see what type of prospect they target. Last year’s selection of Primo at No. 12 was a roll of the dice on a player who has tremendous long-term upside but was the youngest in his draft class. If the team takes that approach again this year, it could mean taking a chance on a player like Jalen Duren, Dyson Daniels, or Ousmane Dieng.

Finally, the ever-present question of Gregg Popovich‘s future looms over every move the Spurs make. Popovich, who has been San Antonio’s head coach since 1996, is probably nearing the end of the road, but the deeper we get into the offseason, the more likely it is that he’ll be back for at least the 2022/23 campaign. Making sure there’s a strong succession plan in place for his eventual retirement will be a top priority for a franchise that has been a paragon of stability during the Popovich years.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($4,995,720)
  • No. 20 overall pick ($2,886,480)
  • No. 25 overall pick ($2,353,560)
  • No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $10,235,760

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Keldon Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Tre Jones (veteran)
  • Romeo Langford (rookie scale)
  • Dejounte Murray (veteran)
  • Jakob Poeltl (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • None

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Spurs bring back all their players on non-guaranteed contracts and hang onto their three first-round picks, they’ll have a projected $29MM+ in cap space.

That number would further increase if not all of those non-guaranteed players are back or if San Antonio trades one of its first-round picks for future assets. However, it could be cut nearly in half if retaining Walker is a priority, since he’ll have a $13MM+ cap hold until he signs a new deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $5,329,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Collins’ salary will become fully guaranteed after June 24.
  2. Bates-Diop’s salary will become fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  3. Jones’ salary will become partially guaranteed ($500K) after August 1 and fully guaranteed after the first day of the regular season.
  4. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Southwest Notes: Bullock, Dinwiddie, Clarke, Davis

May 22nd, 2022 at 2:34pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Mavericks swingman Reggie Bullock has been named this year’s recipient of the 2021/22 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Social Justice Champion award, Bullock announced in a recent Instagram story (hat tip to Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News).

“Super honored to have won this award,” Bullock said in his Instagram story, which also included two photos of an engraved trophy. “My platform isn’t taken for granted and I’ll keep inspiring and doing what’s right for my ppl ‼️”

The league has not yet officially revealed the identity of this year’s victor, chose by a committee featuring several social justice leaders. The NBA is supposed to make the announcement at some point during Sunday’s TNT broadcast of the Western Conference Finals.

Aside from Bullock, other finalists for the honor this season include All-Star Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns, All-Star Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet, Grizzlies All-Defensive Team power forward Jaren Jackson Jr., and Bucks All-Defensive Team point guard Jrue Holiday.

The league is set to make a $100K donation to a charitable social justice organization of Bullock’s choosing. The Dallas Morning News reports that Bullock has selected his hometown Kinston Teens to receive the donation. The other finalists will all be given a $25K league donation for their chosen social justice groups.

There’s more out of the Southwest Division:

  • Mavericks reserve guard Spencer Dinwiddie has enjoyed a particularly lucrative playoff run for Dallas thus far, Marc Stein notes at Substack. The structure of the contract Dinwiddie signed during the 2021 offseason with the Wizards is laden with bonuses that incentivize postseason success. Dinwiddie earned $100K when the Mavericks made the second round of the playoffs and $571,427 when the club advanced to the Western Conference Finals. Should Dallas move on to the Finals, Dinwiddie would earn an additional $400K bonus.
  • Grizzlies big man Brandon Clarke is hoping to improve his three-point game in time for the 2022/23 season, writes Damichael Cole of the Memphis Commercial Appeal. Clarke, 25, is eligible for a rookie contract extension this summer. “It’s pretty high up on the list,” Clarke said of improving his long-range shooting. “I kind of proved this year I’m not somebody who… needs to be shooting the ball to be playing well, but that’s definitely something very high up on the list that I want to work on more.” Cole opines that the addition of a three-point shot to Clarke’s repertoire could impact how the Memphis front office views his long-term fit. Clarke is a career 29.4% three-point shooter on 0.9 attempts a night, though he did convert 35.9% of his 1.1 looks per game during his rookie season in 2019/20.
  • The Spurs, owners of the ninth pick in the 2022 draft, are one of several clubs who took a look at top prospect Johnny Davis, a 6’5″ wing out of Wisconsin, during the 2022 NBA Draft Combine in Chicago. Davis’s NCAA tenure has him well-versed with rebuilding teams, per Tom Orsbron of the San Antonio Express-News. “We lost six or seven seniors from my freshman year, so it was a very limited roster on the team,” Davis said of the Badgers’ 2021/22 squad. “Guys were looking left and right, (thinking), ‘Who is going to be the next ‘guy’ on the team?’ So I figured, ‘Why not me?’ It was a great opportunity to go out and play freely.” Davis averaged just 7.0 PPG during his freshman season, but took a leap as a sophomore. The 20-year-old put up 19.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.1 APG and 1.2 APG for the 25-8 Badgers this past season, while being named a consensus first-team All-American and the Big Ten Player of the Year. The Spurs also possess the No. 20, 25, and 38 picks in the 2022 draft.
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Draft Notes: Sochan, Murray, Daniels, Walton, Mayer

May 22nd, 2022 at 11:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Jeremy Sochan doesn’t mind being thought of as irritating, writes David Aldridge of The Athletic. The Baylor forward, who has gone from a fringe first-rounder to a likely lottery pick in a matter of months, sees aggressive, annoying defense as his ticket to success in the NBA.

“I’ve always had that little edge,” he said. “My mom, she was my first coach, and to this day, she tells me defense comes first. … She used to tell me to be cheeky, being able to see the play two steps ahead. So, I feel with that, being cheeky, maybe getting into people’s spaces, can separate their games, and they can play worse. There’s examples: Draymond (Green), Patrick (Beverley), Jrue (Holiday), so there’s so many. I feel like I can be one of those in the next step.”

Sochan was the main attraction Friday in Chicago at an eight-player workout staged by Tandem Sports + Entertainment. At least nine NBA teams had representatives at the session, according to Aldridge, including the Spurs and Knicks, who both interviewed Sochan during the Draft Combine. San Antonio holds the ninth pick and New York has No. 11, which is about the range where Sochan is expected to be taken.

“We did a little bit (of defense) at the end, with the two-on-two, the screen work, but you can’t really show too much,” Sochan said after the session ended. “I feel like they’re going to have that in mind, and when I go to team workouts, I’ll be able to show a little bit more of that. And whoever picks me, I’ll be able to show that in practices and games.”

There’s more on the draft:

  • Iowa’s Keegan Murray will turn 22 before he plays his first NBA game, but he doesn’t believe his age will discourage teams from drafting him, according to James Boyd of The Indianapolis Star. “I’d say I’m a 21-year-old in an 18-year-old’s body,” Murray said. “In high school, I was a 5-foot-10 sophomore and ended up growing to 6-foot-8 my senior year of high school. So I’m a late bloomer in that sense, so for me, I’m young. I feel young. … If you’re comparing me on age and not what I do on the court, then maybe that’s another conversation. I feel like my ceiling is as high as anyone else in the draft.”
  • Dyson Daniels is starting to get some consideration as a top-five pick after an outstanding pro day at the combine, tweets Jonathan Givony of ESPN. The Australian swingman, who played with G League Ignite this season, impressed scouts with his shooting and “immense potential,” according to Givony.
  • North Carolina guard Kerwin Walton worked out for some teams this week, but he may decide to return to college and transfer, tweets Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. Walton’s workouts included the Timberwolves and Bucks, and he has an upcoming session with the Hornets, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link).
  • Baylor’s Matthew Mayer plans to take his name out of the draft and transfer to another school, per Adam Zagoria of Zagsblog. “I’ve decided that I’m coming back to college, but don’t know where,” he said.
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Fischer’s Latest: Magic, Holmgren, Bamba, Kings, Sharpe

May 20th, 2022 at 10:19am CST by Luke Adams

Rival executives and league personnel view Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren as the most likely pick for the Magic at No. 1 in next month’s draft due to the front office’s affinity for length, writes Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report.

Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond have gravitated toward lanky players with huge wingspans since arriving in Orlando and did the same during their days in Milwaukee, Fischer observes, citing Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson, Thon Maker, Jonathan Isaac, and Mohamed Bamba as examples.

Fischer also points to Holmgren’s good relationship with last year’s No. 4 overall pick Jalen Suggs – they played together at Minnehaha Academy in Minneapolis – as another reason why the Magic may be leaning toward the Gonzaga star.

Whether the Magic end up drafting Holmgren or another top big man prospect like Auburn’s Jabari Smith, league personnel increasingly believe that Bamba is increasingly likely to leave the team this summer, Fischer says. Bamba is eligible for restricted free agency, but there may not be room for him in a frontcourt that would include Holmgren or Smith, Wendell Carter, and the returning Isaac.

Here’s more from Fischer:

  • There’s a “strong belief” among rival executives that the Kings, who badly want to get back to the playoffs, will explore trading the No. 4 pick, according to Fischer. Holmgren, Smith, and Paolo Banchero are the consensus top three players in the draft class, but a number of prospects are in play at No. 4, so there may be a team that feels compelled to move up to snag its preferred target, Fischer writes.
  • League personnel view the Trail Blazers at No. 7 and the Pelicans at No. 8 as other good candidates for trades among lottery teams, per Fischer. The Thunder, Grizzlies, and Spurs, all of whom own multiple first-round selections, are worth monitoring for possible trade-up scenarios, and there are a few teams that may want to move their first-rounders for future picks due to salary cap or luxury tax concerns, Fischer adds.
  • Shaedon Sharpe is considered the wild card of the lottery and could come off the board as high as No. 4, Fischer says. Some executives told Bleacher Report that Sharpe could realistically have been a candidate for No. 1 overall if he had played at all at Kentucky. Given how little Sharpe has played in the last year, he’s regarded as a high-risk, high-upside pick.
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Draft Notes: Jackson-Davis, Washington, Delph, Williamson

May 19th, 2022 at 10:13pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis tested positive for COVID-19 and did not attend the Draft Combine this week in Chicago, James Boyd of the Indianapolis Star reports.

Jackson-Davis declared for the draft in April while maintaining his college eligibility. He averaged 18.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG and 2.3 BPG last season. Jackson-Davis is currently listed at No. 66 on ESPN’s Best Available list.

We have more draft-related notes:

  • Kentucky’s TyTy Washington, who is participating at the combine, says he’ll work out for the Spurs and Pelicans, Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog.com tweets. The point guard is a potential lottery pick — he’s at No. 16 on ESPN’s list. San Antonio owns picks at No. 9, 20 and 25; the Pelicans have the No. 8 pick.
  • Appalachian State guard Adrian Delph will remain in the draft and has hired an agent, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports tweets. Delph averaged 17.7 PPG and 5.4 RPG while making 39.8% of his 3-point tries last season.
  • Wake Forest Daivien Williamson has withdrawn from the draft and will return to the Demon Deacons, according to another Rothstein tweet. Williamson averaged 11.8 PPG last season.
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2022 NBA Draft Picks By Team

May 18th, 2022 at 8:40am CST by Luke Adams

Not only did the Thunder move up in Tuesday’s draft lottery to claim this year’s No. 2 overall pick, but they’re also one of just three teams with four picks in the 2022 draft. No team’s 2022 selections are more valuable than Oklahoma City’s — in addition to the second overall pick, the Thunder control No. 12, No. 30, and No. 34.

The Spurs and Timberwolves also each own four 2022 draft picks, with San Antonio controlling three first-rounders and No. 38, while Minnesota has No. 19 and three second-rounders.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, four clubs don’t currently own any 2022 draft picks. The Lakers, Suns, and Jazz are three of those teams, and either the Sixers or the Nets will be the fourth, depending on whether Brooklyn decides to acquire Philadelphia’s first-rounder or defer it to 2023.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2022 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 58 selections by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (4): 2, 12, 30, 34
  • San Antonio Spurs (4): 9, 20, 25, 38
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (4): 19, 40, 48, 50
  • Orlando Magic (3): 1, 32, 35
  • Sacramento Kings (3): 4, 37, 49
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 6, 31, 58
  • Portland Trail Blazers (3): 7, 36, 57
  • New Orleans Pelicans (3): 8, 41, 52
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 13, 15, 45
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (3): 14, 39, 56
  • Memphis Grizzlies (3): 22, 29, 47
  • Golden State Warriors (3): 28, 51, 55

Teams with two picks:

  • Houston Rockets: 3, 17
  • Detroit Pistons: 5, 46
  • Washington Wizards: 10, 54
  • New York Knicks: 11, 42
  • Atlanta Hawks: 16, 44

Teams with one pick:

  • Chicago Bulls: 18
  • Denver Nuggets: 21
  • Philadelphia 76ers: 23
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 24
  • Dallas Mavericks: 26
  • Miami Heat: 27
  • Toronto Raptors: 33
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 43
  • Boston Celtics: 53

Teams with no picks:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Utah Jazz
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Magic Win 2022 NBA Draft Lottery; Thunder, Rockets, Kings In Top Four

May 17th, 2022 at 7:26pm CST by Luke Adams

With Tuesday night’s lottery results now official, the top 14 slots for the 2022 NBA draft have been set. The lottery order is as follows:

  1. Orlando Magic
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. Houston Rockets
  4. Sacramento Kings
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. Indiana Pacers
  7. Portland Trail Blazers
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers

It’s great news for the rebuilding Magic, who finished dead last in the Eastern Conference this season and had the NBA’s second-worst record (22-60). They entered the night tied for the best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick at 14.0%, and will be picking first in the draft for the first time since 2004, when they selected Dwight Howard.

This time around, the Magic appear likely to draft a big man once again. Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Auburn’s Jabari Smith, and Duke’s Paolo Banchero, all power forwards or centers, are widely considered to be the top prospects in the 2022 class. Orlando could add one of them to a core that includes 2021 lottery picks Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs.

The Thunder are one of the night’s other big winners, moving up from fourth in the pre-lottery order to No. 2 overall. The rebuilding squad is loaded with first-round picks over the next five years, and will have the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player next month to complement guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Oklahoma City is the only team with two picks in this year’s lottery, having acquired the No. 12 overall selection from the Clippers.

The Rockets will have a top-three pick for a second straight year after nabbing Jalen Green second overall in 2021. They’ll be followed by the Kings, who moved up from seventh in the pre-lottery order to No. 4 in the draft, making good on their 31.9% chance to jump into the top four.

It’s the fourth consecutive time that the seventh team in the lottery standings has moved into the top four. The Pelicans (Zion Williamson), Hornets (LaMelo Ball), and Raptors (Scottie Barnes) did it in 2019, 2020, and 2021 after the NBA revamped its lottery format ahead of the 2019 event.

The Pistons, Pacers, and Trail Blazers were among the biggest losers on lottery night. Detroit moved down two spots, from No. 3 to No. 5, while Indiana and Portland both dropped one spot from their place in the pre-lottery order, landing at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively.

Since the Lakers’ first-round pick stayed at No. 8, it will head to the Pelicans rather than the Grizzlies — Memphis would have received it if it had fallen out of the top 10.

The rest of the lottery played out as expected, with the Spurs, Wizards, Knicks, Thunder, Hornets, and Cavaliers rounding out the top 14.

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2022 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 17th, 2022 at 6:47am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of four prospects generally considered by experts to be a level above the rest of the class: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2022 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Detroit Pistons
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Indiana Pacers
  6. Portland Trail Blazers
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will receive this pick if it falls to No. 11 or No. 12.
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Magic, Pistons, and Thunder have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

Typically, only the top three teams in the lottery standings would have a 14.0% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, but the Thunder join that group by virtue of holding two lottery picks — there’s a 12.5% chance that their own pick will move up to No. 1 and a 1.5% chance the Clippers’ pick, which they also control, will be No. 1.

From there, the Pacers (10.5%), Trail Blazers (9.0%), Kings (7.5%), and Pelicans (6.0%) have the best odds to receive the first overall pick.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Clippers and Lakers are the only non-playoff teams that have traded away their lottery picks this year, and neither team put protections on its traded first-rounder.

The Thunder will receive the Clippers’ pick, as detailed above.

The Lakers’ pick technically still remains up for grabs, depending on the lottery results, due to a trade between New Orleans and Memphis. Here are the details on that deal:

Pelicans/Grizzlies

The Pelicans will acquire the Lakers’ pick if it lands in the top 10, while the Grizzlies will receive it if it ends up at No. 11 or 12.

Since the Lakers finished eighth in the lottery standings, there’s approximately a 99.5% chance that New Orleans will hang onto the pick. At least three teams in the 9-14 range would have to jump into the top four in order for Memphis to receive it.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • On stage: Rafael Stone (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  2. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  3. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Richard Hamilton (former Pistons player)
    • Lottery room: George David (assistant GM)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / special assistant to GM)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  5. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Kelly Krauskopf (assistant GM)
    • Lottery room: Chad Buchanan (general manager)
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Damian Lillard
    • Lottery room: Dewayne Hankins (president of business operations)
  7. Sacramento Kings

  8. New Orleans Pelicans

    • On stage: Swin Cash-Canal (VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
  9. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: David Robinson (former Spurs player / strategic partner)
    • Lottery room: Niraj Mulji (director of basketball strategy)
  10. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (president of basketball operations / general manager)
  11. New York Knicks
    • On stage: William Wesley (executive VP / senior basketball advisor)
    • Lottery room: Brock Aller (VP of basketball and strategic planning)
  12. Charlotte Hornets
  13. Cleveland Cavaliers

    • On stage: Anderson Varejao (former Cavaliers player / team ambassador)
    • Lottery room: Jon Nichols (VP of basketball strategy and personnel)

Lottery Format:

This will be the fourth year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results since the new format was implemented have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

A year ago, the results were more by-the-numbers. However, the seventh spot in the lottery standings was lucky again, this time for the Raptors, who moved up to No. 4 and grabbed eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

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