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2021/22 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

September 27th, 2021 at 11:23am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021/22 NBA regular season will get underway in just over three weeks, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to resume an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2020/21, our voters went 17-13 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’21/22?

As a reminder, the NBA played a 72-game schedule in 2020/21, so a team that won 41 games last year finished with a 41-31 record. This year, a club that wins 41 games would be a .500 team (41-41). For added clarity, we’ve noted the record that each team would have to achieve to finish “over” its projected win total.

We’ll turn today to the Southeast division…

Dallas Mavericks

Memphis Grizzlies

New Orleans Pelicans

San Antonio Spurs

Houston Rockets

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Brooklyn Nets (55.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (51.5 wins): Under (70.0%)
  • Boston Celtics (46.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
  • New York Knicks (42.5 wins): Over (65.1%)
  • Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Under (50.6%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (42.5 wins): Under (58.2%)
  • Chicago Bulls (42.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (26.5 wins): Under (50.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (25.5 wins): Under (52.6%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (48.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (47.5 wins): Over (62.2%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (38.5 wins): Over (54.5%)
  • Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
  • Orlando Magic (22.5 wins): Under (53.8%)

Northwest:

  • Utah Jazz (52.5 wins): Over (61.7%)
  • Denver Nuggets (48.5 wins): Over (69.3%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (44.5 wins): Over (53.0%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (34.5 wins): Under (57.1%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5 wins): Under (65.0%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (52.5 wins): Over (58.2%)
  • Phoenix Suns (51.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (43.5 wins): Over (51.2%)
  • Sacramento Kings (36.5 wins): Under (66.0%)
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Spurs Hire Manu Ginobili As Special Advisor

September 24th, 2021 at 2:43pm CST by Luke Adams

Within a press release announcing more than a dozen additions and promotions within their basketball operations department, the Spurs confirmed today that they’ve hired former star player Manu Ginobili as a special advisor to basketball operations.

Ginobili’s role with the franchise was first reported by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, who hears that the four-time NBA champion will work closely with Spurs players, focusing on their development both on and off the court.

According to Wojnarowski, the Spurs have been persistent in trying to get Ginobili to accept a position with the organization since he retired as a player in 2018. Head coach Gregg Popovich, CEO R.C. Buford, and general manager Brian Wright believe Ginobili can help pass on the Spurs’ culture to the next generation of players and staffers, Woj adds.

The 44-year-old spent 16 seasons with the Spurs, earning two All-NBA nods and a Sixth Man of the Year award in addition to his four championships with the club. He also won an Olympic gold medal with Argentina in 2004.

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Stein’s Latest: Simmons, Sixers, NBPA Executive Director

September 21st, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The structure of Ben Simmons‘ contract may embolden him in his plans to hold out from the Sixers, Marc Stein of Substack writes in his latest newsletter. As Stein explains, Simmons received 25% of his 2021/22 salary on August 1 and will receive another 25% on October 1, meaning he’ll already have earned half of his $33MM salary for the season by the time the preseason starts.

[RELATED: Ben Simmons Adamant About Not Attending Camp, Not Playing For Sixers]

League rules permit the Sixers to assess substantial fines for each game he misses during his holdout (approximately $228K per game), but Stein suggests those fines won’t be docked from Simmons’ pay until November, after the first pay period of the regular season. If Simmons was on a more traditional payment schedule, those fines would be more costly, but it will take a while for them to put a dent into the $16.5MM he’ll already have earned this season.

Here’s more from Stein:

  • Don’t expect the Sixers and Simmons to follow the blueprint that Al Horford and the Thunder or John Wall and the Rockets have, according to Stein. While those rebuilding teams were comfortable holding out their veteran players until they found a suitable trade partner, the 76ers continue to try to convince Simmons to report to training camp and have “zero interest” in reaching a mutual agreement to allow the three-time All-Star to remain away from the team, says Stein.
  • According to Stein, many of the teams that have engaged the Sixers in Simmons trade talks – including the Timberwolves, Raptors, Spurs, Cavaliers, and Kings – typically aren’t major players in free agency, and like the idea of securing a young impact player who is under contract for four years. However, most of those teams don’t have stars that would interest Philadelphia, or have made them unavailable in trade negotiations (such as the Wolves with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, or the Kings with De’Aaron Fox).
  • The NBPA has enlisted Chicago-based search firm Heidrick & Struggles to help seek out a new executive director to replace Michele Roberts, according to Stein, who says that “well-placed observers” believe Roberts’ replacement could be an unexpected selection who hasn’t yet been publicly identified.
  • Stein, who previously named Malik Rose as a candidate to become the NBPA’s executive director, suggests Noah Croom, Arne Duncan, Nichole Francis Reynolds, Pat Garrity, and Mark Termini are other viable contenders for the job. Croom and Garrity are veteran team executives, Termini is a longtime player agent, and Duncan and Reynolds work outside of the NBA in education/politics and business, respectively.
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Bozic Named G League Coach

September 17th, 2021 at 6:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Spurs have a new G League coach in Petar Bozic, according to a press release from the Austin Spurs. Bozic spent the past four seasons as an assistant coach for the G League franchise. Before coming to Austin, he served as head coach of Partizan in his home country of Serbia from 2015-16.

We have more from the Western Conference:

  • The agreed-upon four-year, $92MM extension between the Nuggets and forward Aaron Gordon is a sign that the franchise is going all out win a title in the next three seasons, Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post opines. It’s a declaration that Nikola Jokic and the core group is good enough to capture the championship, regardless of the moves made by the Lakers and other contenders.
  • The two-year contract that guard Frank Ntilikina has signed with the Mavericks includes a team option in the second season, Marc Stein of Substack tweets. It’s still unclear whether the former Knick received a full guarantee for the upcoming season.
  • Kings guard De’Aaron Fox explained why he’s faster than anyone else in the league in an interview with The Reel’s Kenny Beecham, relayed on the team’s website. “The way I move is so much different than everybody else,” Fox said. “Everybody’s not able to make the cuts and just stop and do what I do, especially going at full speed.”
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Matt Nielsen Is Spurs' Latest Young Assistant Coach

September 11th, 2021 at 6:40pm CST by Arthur Hill
  • Matt Nielsen is the latest young coach who should benefit from being on Gregg Popovich’s staff, observes Mike Finger of The San Antonio Express News. Nielsen, who is replacing Will Hardy, continues the Spurs‘ preference for hiring inexperienced coaches whenever they have an opening.
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Spurs Notes: Bates-Diop, Roster Crunch, Nielsen, Offseason

September 9th, 2021 at 12:50pm CST by Rory Maher

Keita Bates-Diop, who recently re-signed with the Spurs, received a two-year contract worth the veteran’s minimum, with only the first year guaranteed, per Keith Smith of Spotrac (Twitter link).

Bates-Diop told Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News (via Twitter) that he’s looking forward to the competition of training camp and expects that it won’t be easy to make the final 15-man roster, although his salary being fully guaranteed for the upcoming season is an indication the team likes him. Still, since San Antonio now has 17 players on guaranteed contracts, the situation is worth monitoring.

There’s more from San Antonio:

  • The Spurs announced in a press release that Matt Nielsen has been named an assistant coach for the team after serving as the head coach of their G League affiliate, the Austin Spurs, last season. Nielsen, a native of Australia, had a lengthy playing career in the NBL and then later in Europe prior to becoming a coach. He served as an assistant coach for the Australian National Team at the Tokyo Olympics this summer, where the Boomers won the bronze medal.
  • Zach Harper of The Athletic provided a thorough breakdown of the Spurs’ offseason, including a grade of their roster moves. Harper posits that San Antonio is officially in rebuilding mode and got significantly worse on the wing with the sign-and-trade of DeMar DeRozan to Chicago. DeRozan had one of the best and most efficient seasons of his career last year, and losing him leaves the team without a clear All-Star caliber player.
  • Harper notes that the onus will be on the team’s young core of Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, and Devin Vassell to show significant growth in order to make the play-in tournament again. He thinks selecting Joshua Primo 12th overall in the draft was a reach, as no other teams rated him as highly as the Spurs.
  • Harper did like team’s acquisition of Thaddeus Young, considering him a clear upgrade over the departed Rudy Gay and Trey Lyles. He also thinks that Doug McDermott will help with perimeter shooting and scoring.
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Spurs Re-Sign Keita Bates-Diop To Two-Year Deal

September 7th, 2021 at 7:42pm CST by Luke Adams

7:42pm: The Spurs have officially re-signed Bates-Diop, the team announced in a press release.

9:34am: Restricted free agent forward Keita Bates-Diop has agreed to re-sign with the Spurs on a two-year contract, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

Bates-Diop spent last season on a two-way deal with San Antonio. At season’s end, the club made him an RFA by tendering a qualifying offer that was equivalent to a one-year, two-way contract with a $50K partial guarantee. Based on Wojnarowski’s report, it sounds as if the 25-year-old was able to work out a new standard deal with the Spurs rather than accepting that QO and playing on a two-way contract again.

The 48th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Bates-Diop began his career with Minnesota and has since spent time in Denver and San Antonio. In 2020/21, he averaged 2.6 PPG and 1.6 RPG on .448/.294/.667 shooting in 30 games (8.2 MPG) for the Spurs.

Given Bates-Diop’s underwhelming numbers in his first three NBA seasons, it’s a little surprising that the Spurs were willing to give him a two-year deal, even if it’s almost certainly not fully guaranteed. San Antonio waived Chandler Hutchison over the weekend, but still has 16 other players on guaranteed contracts — adding Bates-Diop to the mix does nothing to clear that roster crunch.

We’ll have to wait for more details on Bates-Diop’s agreement with the Spurs to get a better sense of whether the team envisions him claiming a spot on the 15-man regular season roster. If so, San Antonio will have to trade or release two other players by opening night.

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Spurs Sign Joe Wieskamp To Two-Way Contract

September 7th, 2021 at 7:10pm CST by Luke Adams

SEPTEMBER 7: The Spurs have officially announced the signing of Wieskamp to a two-way deal, per a team press release.

AUGUST 17: Former Iowa wing Joe Wieskamp will sign a two-way contract with the Spurs, according to Scott Dochterman of The Athletic (Twitter link; hat tip to RealGM).

Wieskamp, who will turn 22 next Monday, averaged 14.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG on .491/.462/.677 shooting in 31 games (29.3 MPG) as a junior in 2020/21. He earned All-Big Ten Second Team honors and was the 41st player to come off the board in the July 29 draft.

The Spurs already have 14 players on fully guaranteed contracts, with Drew Eubanks on a partially guaranteed deal and Bryn Forbes and Jock Landale still to sign. As such, there probably wouldn’t have a spot for Wieskamp on the 15-man regular season roster, so it makes sense that San Antonio will start him off on a two-way contract.

Once they sign Wieskamp, the Spurs will still have their second two-way slot open, though Keita Bates-Diop is a candidate to fill it — the team still has a two-way qualifying offer out to him.

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And-Ones: Ntilikina, Draft Prospects, Nets, Pistons, Primo

September 5th, 2021 at 8:04pm CST by JD Shaw

Free agent guard Frank Ntilikina is receiving interest from Italian club Virtus Bologna as a potential replacement for Nico Mannion, according to BasketNews.com. Mannion will miss the beginning of the season as he recovers from an intestinal infection.

“We are looking on the market for an element to be included, a point guard who can also remain in the future,” head coach Sergio Scariolo said as part of a larger quote, according to EuroHoops. Because of that, we focus on young people who can give something important, rather than a veteran addition.”

Ntilikina fits the bill for what Virtus Bologna is looking for. The defensive-minded 23-year-old was drafted eighth overall in the 2017 NBA Draft, spending the past four years with New York.

Across those four seasons with the Knicks, Ntilikina has averaged 5.5 points, two rebounds and 0.8 steals in 19.5 minutes per game. He’s struggled with his shooting at the NBA level, owning a 36.6% mark from the field and 32.8% mark from deep in his career.

Here are some other odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Bryan Kalbrosky of HoopsHype takes a look at the top prospects for the 2022 NBA draft, crafting an early aggregate mock draft for the event based on the rankings of various draft experts. Among the projected high-lottery picks is Duke freshman Paolo Banchero, whom Kalbrosky pegs as most likely to be drafted first overall.
  • Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (Insider link) examines the recent Nets–Pistons trade featuring veteran center DeAndre Jordan, grading both sides and giving his opinion on which team won the trade. Brooklyn, which received an A grade from Pelton, dealt Jordan, four second-round picks and $5.78MM in cash in exchange for Jahlil Okafor and Sekou Doumbouya. The Pistons, who got a C-plus, then reached a buyout agreement with Jordan, allowing him to sign with the Lakers.
  • Spurs rookie Joshua Primo has signed a multi-year shoe and endorsement deal with Nike, according to Jeff Garcia of KENS 5. Primo, 18, was selected No. 12 overall in this year’s draft after spending one season at Alabama.
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Bryn Forbes Hires Octagon For New Representation

September 5th, 2021 at 6:31pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Spurs guard Bryn Forbes has hired Octagon for his new representation, the agency announced on social media (Twitter link). Forbes signed with San Antonio last month after spending the 2020/21 season with the NBA champion Bucks. Prior to joining Milwaukee, the 28-year-old sharpshooter played his first four seasons with San Antonio, appearing in 261 games. He was previously represented by Excel Sports Management.
  • In case you missed it, the Spurs decided to waive 25-year-old forward Chandler Hutchison this weekend. San Antonio acquired Hutchison as part of a five-team August trade. He appeared in 25 contests with the Bulls and Wizards last season, averaging 5.7 points and 18.2 minutes per contest.
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