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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

June 24th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors won a title in 2019, came within one win of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020, and had been a playoff team for seven consecutive seasons entering 2020/21. So it was a bit of a surprise that the club fell off so drastically, winning just 27 games this season after piling up 53 victories in ’19/20.

A number of factors contributed to the Raptors’ plunge down the standings. The team lost Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in free agency and their replacement centers (Aron Baynes and Alex Len) didn’t really work out. The club was hit by injuries and a midseason COVID-19 outbreak. And perhaps most notably, the Raptors played all their home games in Tampa, having been displaced from Toronto by border restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic. Every NBA team was affected by COVID-19, but no other club was subjected to what amounted to a six-month road trip.

It was a disappointing year for a franchise that hadn’t won fewer than 48 games in a season since 2012/13, but with core players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby locked up long-term, there’s reason to believe Toronto won’t be back in the lottery a year from now.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

The Raptors’ decision not to push too hard for a play-in spot late in the regular season paid off, as the team got some luck on lottery night and secured the No. 4 overall pick. The dream scenario would be two-way big man Evan Mobley falling to Toronto, but Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs would be a fine consolation prize.

President of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster may consider trading up or down, but given how highly those top four prospects are regarded by scouts and draft experts, the safest and easiest play would be to stand pat and select whichever one drops to No. 4.

Speaking of Ujiri, there has still been no word on a potential contract extension for the former Executive of the Year, whose deal with the Raptors expires this summer. But there’s also been little indication that he plans to move on from the franchise. He’s perhaps the Raptors’ most important “free agent” this summer, and signing him to a new long-term deal would be a major win for the organization.

Kyle Lowry also has a claim to the title of Toronto’s most important free agent. One of the greatest players in team history, Lowry has been with the Raptors since 2012, making six All-Star teams during that time and playing a key role on 2019’s championship squad.

Lowry was nearly moved at the trade deadline, but no team was willing to meet Toronto’s asking price. Having failed to acquire any assets for Lowry at that point, the Raptors may feel more compelled this summer to either bring him back on a new contract or work out a sign-and-trade deal with his new team, rather than losing him for nothing. The 35-year-old clearly has an affinity for Toronto, but may want to join a club that’s a little closer to title contention. His free agency will be one of the most interesting cases to watch this offseason.

If they don’t land Mobley in the draft, acquiring a big man via trade or free agency will be high on the Raptors’ list of summer priorities. Depending on what happens with Lowry, the team could have some cap room available to address that issue.

Re-signing RFA-to-be Gary Trent Jr., acquired in a deadline deal with Portland, will also be high on Toronto’s to-do list.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($7,280,520)
  • No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,280,520

Extension-Eligible Players

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Depending on whether they bring back Lowry, the Raptors could operate either over or under the cap this summer. Accounting for their four guaranteed contracts and Boucher’s non-guaranteed salary, along with cap holds for Trent and the No. 4 pick, would leave the Raptors with approximately $18MM in cap room, assuming everyone else (including Lowry) is renounced or waived.

My best guess for now is that the Raptors will enter free agency expecting to operate over the cap in order to either re-sign Lowry or get something back in a sign-and-trade for him. But that plan could change quickly if Lowry goes to a team with the cap room to sign him outright — or if the Raps believe the veteran guard will leave and decide their own potential cap space is worth more than his sign-and-trade rights.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 9
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 9
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981

Footnotes

  1. Hood’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 27.
  2. Baynes’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.
  3. Boucher’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 8.
  4. Bembry’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
  5. Watanabe’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($375K) after August 9.
  6. Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 6.
  7. The cap holds for these players remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  8. This is a projected value. Lowry’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service.
  9. These are projected values. If the Raptors decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Raptors Will Consider All Options With No. 4 Pick; De Colo Sticking With Fenerbahce

June 24th, 2021 at 8:33am CST by Luke Adams
  • The Raptors secured the fourth overall pick in a draft that is viewed as having at least four top-tier prospects, but that doesn’t mean they’re content with simply staying put and taking whichever player drops to them, writes Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca. General manager Bobby Webster suggested the club will be open to a variety of scenarios with that selection. “All of our options are open,” Webster said. “As much as we would love the pick, we’re going to see what it yields outside of the draft.”
  • Veteran guard Nando De Colo, who technically remains a Raptors restricted free agent despite not having played in the NBA since 2014, will return to Fenerbahce in Turkey for at least one more season, as Emiliano Carchia of Sportando relays. Toronto has issued De Colo a qualifying offer for seven straight years to retain his RFA rights and will likely do so again this summer.
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Olympic Notes: Spain, Simmons, Nigeria, Turkey, Garland

June 23rd, 2021 at 11:26am CST by Luke Adams

Veteran center Pau Gasol, who has represented Spain in four Olympic tournaments so far, remains on track to be part of the team in Tokyo, per an Associated Press report. Gasol was one of 18 players included on Spain’s preliminary roster for the Tokyo games, joining his brother – Lakers center Marc Gasol – and Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio.

Timberwolves forward Juan Hernangomez, Pelicans big man Willy Hernangomez, and projected first-round pick Usman Garuba are among the other notable names on Spain’s preliminary roster, according to The Associated Press.

Here’s more on the Tokyo Olympics:

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2021 NBA Draft Picks By Team

June 23rd, 2021 at 10:06am CST by Luke Adams

It wasn’t a great night for the Thunder at Tuesday’s draft lottery. The team had about a two-in-three chance that its own first-round pick would land in the top five and nearly a 50-50 chance that Houston’s pick would slide to No. 5, allowing OKC to swap the No. 18 selection for it. Instead, the Rockets kept their own pick and the Thunder’s selection slipped to No. 6.

Still, no NBA team has more draft picks in 2021 than the Thunder, who control three first-round selections and three more second-rounders.

The Pelicans, Pistons, Knicks, and Nets join them as teams that hold at least four draft picks this year. Those five clubs currently control 23 of the 60 picks in the 2021 draft, so it’s probably safe to assume they’ll be active on the trade market before or during the draft.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2021 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 60 picks by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (6): 6, 16, 18, 34, 36, 55
  • Brooklyn Nets (5): 27, 29, 44, 49, 59
  • Detroit Pistons (4): 1, 37, 42, 52
  • New Orleans Pelicans (4): 17, 35, 43, 51
  • New York Knicks (4): 19, 21, 32, 58
  • Houston Rockets (3): 2, 23, 24
  • Toronto Raptors (3): 4, 46, 47
  • Orlando Magic (3): 5, 8, 33
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 11, 56, 57
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 13, 54, 60
  • Philadelphia 76ers (3): 28, 50, 53

Teams with two picks:

  • Golden State Warriors: 7, 14
  • Sacramento Kings: 9, 39
  • San Antonio Spurs: 12, 41
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 10, 40
  • Atlanta Hawks: 20, 48

Teams with one pick:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 3
  • Washington Wizards: 15
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 22
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 25
  • Denver Nuggets: 26
  • Utah Jazz: 30
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 31
  • Chicago Bulls: 38
  • Boston Celtics: 45

Teams with no picks:

  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers
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Pistons Win 2021 Draft Lottery; Rockets, Cavs, Raptors In Top Four

June 22nd, 2021 at 7:57pm CST by Luke Adams

With Tuesday night’s lottery results now official, the top 14 slots for the 2021 NBA draft have been set. The lottery order is as follows:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers
  4. Toronto Raptors
  5. Orlando Magic
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder
  7. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

It’s a huge win for the Pistons and for general manager Troy Weaver, who had one of the best drafts of any NBA team in 2020, nabbing Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Saben Lee. This time around, Detroit is in position to draft Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, who is widely considered to be the No. 1 prospect in the 2021 draft class.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link), the plan is for Cunningham to visit just one team before the July 29 draft: the Pistons.

The Rockets, like Detroit, entered the night with the best odds at landing a top-four pick (52.1%). And while they ended up at No. 2 rather than No. 1, it’s a major relief for the franchise, which would have had to send its pick to the Thunder in exchange for the No. 18 selection if it had landed outside of the top four.

Rather than falling out of the lottery, Houston is poised to take its pick from a top tier of prospects that includes Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga. Whichever player the Rockets select figures to become the centerpiece of the team’s rebuild.

The Cavaliers and Raptors moved up in the lottery standings, from fifth and seventh respectively, into the top four. As we noted in our Cavs offseason preview earlier today, Cleveland hasn’t missed on any of its recent lottery picks, but also hasn’t landed a prospect who looks capable of being the club’s franchise player. The Cavs may get that opportunity in 2021.

As for the Raptors, after making the playoffs for seven straight seasons and winning a title in 2019, they had a disastrous 2020/21 campaign, displaced from their home in Toronto due to the coronavirus pandemic and dealing with constant COVID-19 and injury issues. They’re now in position to add an intriguing young player to a core that already includes Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby.

Although none of the teams that moved into the top four did so from the bottom half of the lottery, it’s worth noting that the No. 7 spot in the lottery standings has been especially lucky since the NBA revamped the format three years ago. The Pelicans moved up to No. 1 from that position in 2019, allowing them to draft Zion Williamson. In 2020, the Hornets moved from No. 7 to No. 3, putting them in position to select eventual Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball. Now the Raptors have moved up from that spot too.

The night’s biggest losers include the Timberwolves and Bulls, who would have held onto their lottery picks if they had moved into the top three and the top four, respectively. Instead, those picks will be sent to the Warriors and Magic at No. 7 and No. 8.

The Magic‘s own pick and the Thunder‘s selection slipped two spots as a result of the lottery — they’ll pick at No. 5 and No. 6.

It was still a good night for the Magic, who control two of the top eight picks in a strong draft, but the outcome wasn’t great for Oklahoma City. The Thunder entered the evening with the potential to come away with two top-five picks. Instead, they’ll have zero, having lost the ability to swap first-rounders with Houston.

The 9-14 picks in the draft lottery standings remained unchanged.

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Ishmail Wainright Expected To Make Move To NBA; Raptors Said To Be Interested

June 22nd, 2021 at 4:58pm CST by Eli Cohen

Ishmail Wainright is expected to come over to the NBA this offseason, writes Emiliano Carchia of Sportando.

The 26-year-old played for Strasbourg in the French LNB Pro A League this season, and was the team’s third-leading scorer as Strasbourg went 25-10, tied for the third-best record in the league. He averaged 11.8PPG, 4.6 RPG and 2.5 APG in 28 minutes per night.

According to Carchia, the Raptors are the frontrunners to sign Wainright. Blake Murphy of The Athletic confirms (via Twitter) that Toronto has been interested in the 6’5, 250 pound guard/forward for a while, though they are not the only team with interest.

Wainright played for Baylor University for four seasons from 2013-17, averaging 3.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG and two APG. He also represented Uganda in this year’s FIBA Afrobasket qualifiers, leading the team to a 2-1 record with 36 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in the team’s final game.

If Wainright does sign with the Raptors, he would give them a versatile defender capable of guarding multiple positions who has shown the ability to hit threes in big moments. With their development staff’s track record of helping players become more consistent shooters, the Raptors may be hopeful they can turn his outside shot into more of a weapon.

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Draft Updates: Combine, Thomas, Bacot, Cunningham, More

June 22nd, 2021 at 9:32am CST by Luke Adams

As expected, a number of draft-eligible prospects who stood out at the NBA G League Elite Camp that took place from June 19-21 are now receiving invitations to remain in Chicago for this week’s combine.

Maryland’s Aaron Wiggins and Ohio State’s Duane Washington are among the players who have been invited to the combine, according to Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Twitter links). Givony also hears from a source that South Carolina’s A.J. Lawson has received an invite, while Jeremy Woo of SI.com reports that Louisville’s Carlik Jones did too (Twitter links).

While scouts should get an extended look at those prospects in Chicago this week, they won’t see LSU’s Cameron Thomas, who has withdrawn from the combine, as we relayed on Monday. According to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports (Twitter link), there’s a belief that Thomas may have gotten a first-round guarantee.

Here’s more on the 2021 NBA draft:

  • North Carolina sophomore forward Armando Bacot has decided to withdraw from the 2021 draft and will return to school for the 2021/22 season, he tells Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports (Twitter link). Bacot had been testing the draft waters after declaring this spring.
  • Several more agency Pro Day workouts have been added to the schedule for this week in Chicago, per Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Twitter link). Jonathan Kuminga and Sharife Cooper are among the players expected to conduct individual workouts.
  • Prospects who haven’t been vaccinated against COVID-19 may have a harder time lining up pre-draft workouts with NBA teams, according to Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic, who says agents have been encouraging their clients to get vaccinated and some team personnel have “conveyed an annoyance” at dealing with unvaccinated players. “Life is a lot harder,” one agent said. “Teams definitely want guys who are vaccinated.”
  • Sam Vecenie of The Athletic explores the best possible fits for Cade Cunningham among this year’s lottery teams, making a case for the Raptors, Warriors, and Thunder as the most ideal destinations for the likely No. 1 pick.
  • John Hollinger of The Athletic has a much different top-20 list than most draft experts, listing Florida State’s Scottie Barnes at No. 3 and Turkish big man Alperen Sengun at No. 4 on his big board, with Jonathan Kuminga down at No. 8.
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2021 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

June 22nd, 2021 at 8:26am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Clippers and Suns. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of five prospects widely considered to be a level above the rest of the class. Cade Cunningham leads the way, followed in some order by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2021 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four (47.9% chance).
  2. Detroit Pistons
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
    • Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three (27.6% chance).
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (20.3% chance).
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Pistons, and Magic have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Thunder (45.1%), Cavaliers (45.1%), Timberwolves (37.2%), and Raptors (31.9%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades have the potential to shake up Tuesday’s lottery results in a significant way, potentially altering the course of multiple franchises. Here are the details on those deals:

Rockets/Thunder

The Thunder have the ability to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for the Rockets‘ first-rounder, but only if Houston’ selection lands outside the top four.

Since Oklahoma City’s own pick is also a lottery selection, there are essentially just two scenarios in play here:

  1. The Rockets’ pick lands in the top four and Houston keeps it. The Thunder would keep their own pick, along with the Heat’s pick at No. 18 (52.1% chance).
  2. The Rockets’ pick lands at No. 5 and the Thunder swap the No. 18 pick for it (47.9% chance).

The Thunder’s ability to swap picks with the Rockets won’t carry over to next season if Houston’s pick is protected.

Timberwolves/Warriors

The Timberwolves owe the Warriors their top-three protected first-round pick, so Golden State will receive the pick if it lands at No. 4 or lower. Technically, it can’t end up at No. 5, but 1-4 and 6-10 are all possibilities.

There’s a 27.6% chance this pick lands in the top three and remains with Minnesota, with a 72.4% chance Golden State gets it. It has a 9.6% chance of moving up to No. 4, and a 62.8% chance of ending up between 6-10. No. 7 (29.7%) or No. 8 (20.6%) are the most likely outcomes.

If the Wolves’ pick lands in the top three and is protected, they’d owe the Warriors their unprotected first-round pick in 2022.

Bulls/Magic

The Bulls owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. It can’t land between 5-7, but Orlando will get it if it ends up in the 8-12 range.

There’s a 20.3% chance the pick will move into the top four, allowing Chicago to keep it, with a 79.7% chance Orlando gets it. No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (36.2%) are, by far, the most likely outcomes.

If the Bulls’ pick lands in the top four and is protected, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-round pick in 2022.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-camera representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (former player)
  2. Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (former player)
  3. Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Nazr Mohammed (OKC Blue general manager / Thunder pro scout)
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Koby Altman (general manager)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
  7. Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
  8. Chicago Bulls: Marc Eversley (general manager)
  9. Sacramento Kings: Monte McNair (general manager)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Swin Cash (VP of basketball operations and team development)
  11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges
  12. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (managing partner)
  13. Indiana Pacers: Nancy Leonard (former Pacers executive / widow of Hall-of-Famer Slick Leonard)
  14. Golden State Warriors: Rick Welts (president / COO)

Lottery Format:

This will be the third year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results in the last two years have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. If those seventh and eighth lottery seeds get lucky again this year, it’d be great news for Toronto and Chicago.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Sixers Notes: Lowry, Simmons, Embiid, Offseason

June 21st, 2021 at 11:26am CST by Luke Adams

The Sixers engaged in trade talks at March’s deadline for Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry, but ultimately weren’t willing to meet Toronto’s asking price. According to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, some executives around the NBA felt that Philadelphia should have been more aggressive in trying to land a play-maker who would’ve been an ideal fit on the roster, while others understood why the club was reluctant to go all-in on a 35-year-old on an expiring contract.

While there are varying opinions about the Sixers’ approach to the 2021 trade deadline, most people around the league agree that president of basketball operations Daryl Morey passed on Lowry because he hopes to land an even better star, says O’Connor. However, even if Morey is willing to put Ben Simmons on the table, it’s unclear whether the 76ers would be favorites for the next star who becomes available, given how the playoffs affected Simmons’ value.

Trading Joel Embiid is a “non-starter,” O’Connor adds.

Here’s more out of Philadelphia:

  • Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) and Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype look ahead to what’s on tap for the Sixers during the 2021 offseason. While Simmons’ future feels like the most pressing question to answer right now, the team’s extension talks with Embiid will also be critical — the All-NBA big man is eligible for a super-max extension that would add four years onto his current deal.
  • The Sixers failed Embiid, according to Derek Bodner of The Athletic, who points to the coach, the rest of the players, and the organization as a whole as those who let down the star center. Despite Embiid’s development into a superstar and an impressive playoff performance on a torn meniscus, the Sixers appear “less flexible and more desperate” than they’ve been at any time since The Process began, Bodner contends.
  • In the wake of the Sixers’ latest playoff disappointment, Dan Woiken of USA Today contends that the organization’s “Process” will be remembered as a failure.
  • Tim Bontemps of ESPN takes a look at the end of the Sixers’ season, suggesting that this year may ultimately serve as a referendum on the Embiid/Simmons partnership.
  • In case you missed it, we rounded up several Simmons-specific items earlier today.
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Best Fits For Lowry Should He Bolt

June 17th, 2021 at 5:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • The Knicks, Sixers, Heat and Mavericks would seem to be logical destinations for the Raptors’ longtime point guard Kyle Lowry if he leaves Toronto. Eric Koreen of The Athletic takes a closer look at how Lowry would fit onto each of those teams.
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