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2021 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

June 22nd, 2021 at 8:26am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Clippers and Suns. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of five prospects widely considered to be a level above the rest of the class. Cade Cunningham leads the way, followed in some order by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2021 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four (47.9% chance).
  2. Detroit Pistons
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
    • Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three (27.6% chance).
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (20.3% chance).
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Pistons, and Magic have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Thunder (45.1%), Cavaliers (45.1%), Timberwolves (37.2%), and Raptors (31.9%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades have the potential to shake up Tuesday’s lottery results in a significant way, potentially altering the course of multiple franchises. Here are the details on those deals:

Rockets/Thunder

The Thunder have the ability to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for the Rockets‘ first-rounder, but only if Houston’ selection lands outside the top four.

Since Oklahoma City’s own pick is also a lottery selection, there are essentially just two scenarios in play here:

  1. The Rockets’ pick lands in the top four and Houston keeps it. The Thunder would keep their own pick, along with the Heat’s pick at No. 18 (52.1% chance).
  2. The Rockets’ pick lands at No. 5 and the Thunder swap the No. 18 pick for it (47.9% chance).

The Thunder’s ability to swap picks with the Rockets won’t carry over to next season if Houston’s pick is protected.

Timberwolves/Warriors

The Timberwolves owe the Warriors their top-three protected first-round pick, so Golden State will receive the pick if it lands at No. 4 or lower. Technically, it can’t end up at No. 5, but 1-4 and 6-10 are all possibilities.

There’s a 27.6% chance this pick lands in the top three and remains with Minnesota, with a 72.4% chance Golden State gets it. It has a 9.6% chance of moving up to No. 4, and a 62.8% chance of ending up between 6-10. No. 7 (29.7%) or No. 8 (20.6%) are the most likely outcomes.

If the Wolves’ pick lands in the top three and is protected, they’d owe the Warriors their unprotected first-round pick in 2022.

Bulls/Magic

The Bulls owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. It can’t land between 5-7, but Orlando will get it if it ends up in the 8-12 range.

There’s a 20.3% chance the pick will move into the top four, allowing Chicago to keep it, with a 79.7% chance Orlando gets it. No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (36.2%) are, by far, the most likely outcomes.

If the Bulls’ pick lands in the top four and is protected, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-round pick in 2022.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-camera representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (former player)
  2. Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (former player)
  3. Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Nazr Mohammed (OKC Blue general manager / Thunder pro scout)
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Koby Altman (general manager)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
  7. Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
  8. Chicago Bulls: Marc Eversley (general manager)
  9. Sacramento Kings: Monte McNair (general manager)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Swin Cash (VP of basketball operations and team development)
  11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges
  12. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (managing partner)
  13. Indiana Pacers: Nancy Leonard (former Pacers executive / widow of Hall-of-Famer Slick Leonard)
  14. Golden State Warriors: Rick Welts (president / COO)

Lottery Format:

This will be the third year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results in the last two years have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. If those seventh and eighth lottery seeds get lucky again this year, it’d be great news for Toronto and Chicago.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Sixers Notes: Lowry, Simmons, Embiid, Offseason

June 21st, 2021 at 11:26am CST by Luke Adams

The Sixers engaged in trade talks at March’s deadline for Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry, but ultimately weren’t willing to meet Toronto’s asking price. According to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, some executives around the NBA felt that Philadelphia should have been more aggressive in trying to land a play-maker who would’ve been an ideal fit on the roster, while others understood why the club was reluctant to go all-in on a 35-year-old on an expiring contract.

While there are varying opinions about the Sixers’ approach to the 2021 trade deadline, most people around the league agree that president of basketball operations Daryl Morey passed on Lowry because he hopes to land an even better star, says O’Connor. However, even if Morey is willing to put Ben Simmons on the table, it’s unclear whether the 76ers would be favorites for the next star who becomes available, given how the playoffs affected Simmons’ value.

Trading Joel Embiid is a “non-starter,” O’Connor adds.

Here’s more out of Philadelphia:

  • Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) and Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype look ahead to what’s on tap for the Sixers during the 2021 offseason. While Simmons’ future feels like the most pressing question to answer right now, the team’s extension talks with Embiid will also be critical — the All-NBA big man is eligible for a super-max extension that would add four years onto his current deal.
  • The Sixers failed Embiid, according to Derek Bodner of The Athletic, who points to the coach, the rest of the players, and the organization as a whole as those who let down the star center. Despite Embiid’s development into a superstar and an impressive playoff performance on a torn meniscus, the Sixers appear “less flexible and more desperate” than they’ve been at any time since The Process began, Bodner contends.
  • In the wake of the Sixers’ latest playoff disappointment, Dan Woiken of USA Today contends that the organization’s “Process” will be remembered as a failure.
  • Tim Bontemps of ESPN takes a look at the end of the Sixers’ season, suggesting that this year may ultimately serve as a referendum on the Embiid/Simmons partnership.
  • In case you missed it, we rounded up several Simmons-specific items earlier today.
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Best Fits For Lowry Should He Bolt

June 17th, 2021 at 5:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • The Knicks, Sixers, Heat and Mavericks would seem to be logical destinations for the Raptors’ longtime point guard Kyle Lowry if he leaves Toronto. Eric Koreen of The Athletic takes a closer look at how Lowry would fit onto each of those teams.
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Raptors Assistant Scariolo In Talks With Virtus Bologna

June 15th, 2021 at 1:31pm CST by Luke Adams
  • The Raptors may be losing another assistant, with reports suggesting that Sergio Scariolo will become the new head coach of Virtus Bologna in Italy. Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca tweets that nothing has been finalized yet, but confirms that Scariolo has had discussions with the Italian club. If Scariolo departs, he’d be the third top Raptors assistant to leave the team within the last year, joining Nate Bjorkgren and Chris Finch.
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Siakam Opted For Surgery Over Re-Injury Concerns

June 12th, 2021 at 10:15am CST by Eli Cohen
  • The Raptors had hoped that forward Pascal Siakam‘s shoulder surgery last week could be avoided, tweets TSN Sports’ Josh Lewenberg, but ultimately decided that the risk of re-injury was too high. The five-month timetable for recovery points to a November return to action, meaning Siakam will miss not only the start of the 2021/22 season but also a crucial development offseason following a let-down season for the Raptors’ star and the team as a whole. Siakam had been planning on using his longest off-season in five years to lock himself in the gym and work on expanding his game, writes Lewenberg, but this development means most of his time will be spent rehabbing and watching film.
  • The Athletic’s Blake Murphy details why projected top-three pick Evan Mobley would be the perfect fit for the Raptors if they land the second pick. As a hyper-skilled seven-foot center with an intriguing blend of shooting, ball-handling and dominant defensive tools, Mobley’s fit with Siakam would be nearly seamless.
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Pascal Siakam Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Likely To Miss Start Of 2021/22

June 11th, 2021 at 12:10pm CST by Luke Adams

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam underwent successful surgery on his left shoulder in Los Angeles last week to repair a torn labrum, the team announced today in a press release.

According to the Raptors, Siakam sustained the injury during the club’s May 8 game vs. Memphis. Toronto estimates the forward will require approximately five months for recovery and rehabilitation, meaning he likely won’t be available to start the 2021/22 regular season, which begins on October 19.

It’s unclear why it took about a month after Siakam suffered the injury for him to go under the knife. Blake Murphy of The Athletic speculates (via Twitter) that the Raptors and their standout forward tried to go a non-surgical route before deciding that the procedure was necessary.

After earning his first All-Star nod in 2020, Siakam took a slight step back during the last year, struggling last summer in the bubble and then seeing some of his numbers dip during the 2020/21 season. He still averaged 21.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game in 56 contests (35.8 MPG), but his three-point mark declined to just 29.7%, well below his rate in the previous two seasons.

Siakam, one of the Raptors’ cornerstones, remains under contract with Toronto through the 2023/24 season. He’ll earn just over $33MM in ’21/22.

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Free Agent Possibilities For Raptors

June 10th, 2021 at 8:11pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum
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Agile Center Should Be High Priority

June 8th, 2021 at 6:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder
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Raptors Will Have Lots of Competitors For Kyle Lowry

June 5th, 2021 at 5:15pm CST by Arthur Hill
  • The Raptors will have plenty of competition for Kyle Lowry in free agency this summer, with the Lakers, Heat, Knicks and Sixers all expected to pursue him, writes Dave Feschuk of The Toronto Star. He notes that Lowry said, “Money talks, and years talk” in his postseason press conference, indicating the veteran point guard will be looking for a multiyear offer.
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14 NBA Players On Canada’s Preliminary Olympic Qualifying Roster

May 27th, 2021 at 12:54pm CST by Luke Adams

Team Canada has yet to secure a place in the men’s basketball event at the Tokyo Olympics, but the club should have a loaded roster as it looks to lock up a spot in a qualifying tournament next month.

Canada Basketball issued a press release today announcing its 21-player preliminary roster for the Olympic qualifier, and the group includes 14 players who finished the season on NBA contracts. Here’s the full list:

Of the seven players who didn’t play in the NBA this season, one (Bennett) is a former first overall pick, another (Nicholson) was also a first-round selection, and a third (Alexander) has NBA experience. Bell-Haynes has played in the G League, while Doornekamp, Ejim, and Nembhard all have extensive experience representing Canada in past international competitions.

Still, a few noteworthy names are missing from the list. Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and won’t be able to participate. Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also dealing with an injury, announcing on Instagram that rehabbing the plantar fasciitis in his right foot will prevent him from representing Team Canada.

Raptors big man Chris Boucher is a third notable omission. According to Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), Boucher is focused on rehabbing a knee sprain and wants to make sure he’s 100% healthy heading into 2021/22. He also has a somewhat uncertain contract situation — his $7MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed, though I’d be shocked if he’s not retained.

Even without Murray, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Boucher, Canada Basketball is in position to run out a roster stacked with NBA talent and led by former NBA Coach of the Year Nick Nurse.

While the final roster will depend in part on which players are available, none of the 21 players on the preliminary are on teams expected to still be alive for the conference finals. However, a club like Powell’s Mavericks or Barrett’s Knicks could surprise.

Team Canada will compete against Greece, China, Uruguay, Turkey, and the Czech Republic in a qualifying tournament in Victoria, British Columbia between June 29 and July 4. If the club wins that six-team qualifier, it will be part of the 12-team field in Tokyo and would be a legit contender for a medal.

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