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Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

Raptors’ Ujiri Talks Contract Situation, Lowry, Return To Toronto

May 19th, 2021 at 5:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri held his end-of-season press conference on Wednesday, addressing a wide range of topics in the wake of what has been an eventful season for a displaced franchise.

As Tim Bontemps of ESPN details, Ujiri spent some time discussing the challenges the team faced spending the season in Tampa instead of Toronto, and also addressed two major upcoming free agencies: point guard Kyle Lowry‘s and his own. Both Lowry and Ujiri are on expiring contracts.

In discussing Lowry’s situation, Ujiri stressed that “it’s hard to find a better player than Kyle” and suggested that the 35-year-old is even more valuable to the Raptors than to another team. However, he also spoke about building around younger players and giving them more opportunities, perhaps providing a hint of what next season could look like for the team if Lowry doesn’t return.

As for his own contract situation, Ujiri said he appreciates the freedom he has to go into the luxury tax when the Raptors are in position to win, but that he wants to discuss some other issues with team ownership, such as the infrastructure of the organization (Twitter link via Blake Murphy of The Athletic).

Bontemps’ roundup of the presser is worth checking out in full, but here are a few of the notable quotes from Ujiri on his contract negotiations and the Raptors’ situation going forward:

On factors Ujiri will consider as he approaches contract negotiations with the Raptors:

“Everybody says, ‘blank check, blank check,’ but I’m not as much focused on a blank check. A lot of the things that we’ve done here, we have to move forward as a franchise to compete with the best in the NBA. This is all about winning a championship again.

“… I want to know, ‘So, what’s the next lift? What’s the next five years? What’s the next 10 years? What are we doing to put ourselves in conversation with all the great teams and all the winners?’ That’s what we want to do, and that’s the conversation that I’m going to have with (ownership). And, yes, I’m going to have asks, and I’m going to have a lot of things that I think we need to put forward here to address these things, and I think ownership is open to hear this.”

On his feeling that the Raptors face some disadvantages as the only non-U.S. NBA franchise:

“I think it’s difficult sometimes for the league to always include us in everything because we are the one team that is based outside the U.S. I’m sure sometimes it’s a pain in the ass sometimes for them. But guess what? That is the business you have put yourself in. You have put yourself on a global platform that you have one team in the NBA that is outside the United States and we have to be considered in every single way. There are difficult decisions that have to be made based on this.

“… (NBA commissioner) Adam Silver has been very considerate. … I don’t want to call out anybody here. But there is a lot of work we need to address.”

On his strong desire for the Raptors to return to Toronto for the 2021/22 season:

“So, the situation we are in in Toronto now, I’m hoping that we’re seeing it and we’re hoping that it gets resolved, hopefully soon. And all over Canada, people continue to get vaccinated, and then we go from there. … I don’t want to be selfish on the sports part, and as an NBA worker or executive, I don’t want to be selfish and push our agenda before other people, but yes, timing matters and we would like to be considered, because we do not want — I repeat — we do not want to play anywhere else but Toronto.”

Atlantic Notes: Lowry, M. James, Embiid, Knicks, Nets

May 18th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Asked today about his upcoming free agency, Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry mentioned a number of factors that he’ll consider as he makes his decision, writes Doug Smith of The Toronto Star. Lowry cited family considerations as one important factor, along with “money” and “years,” as well as his desire to win more championships (Twitter link via Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca).

Perhaps most interestingly, Lowry suggested his future may be tied in part to that of president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri, who is the Raptors’ other key free agent this summer: “I told him this, the only reason I’m still here is because of him. Part of the reason I re-signed here twice is because of him. That is a large part of why I am able to be who I am and gotten to this point.”

Based on Lowry’s comments about prioritizing family and competing for titles, Eric Koreen of The Athletic believes the six-time All-Star is probably more likely to join a new team than to return to the Raptors. However, Lowry also hinted that he may have unfinished business with his current club after a disappointing 2020/21 season spent away from Toronto.

“It does play a factor in it because I enjoy the challenge of people counting me out, counting the team out,” Lowry said. “I enjoy that competitive nature, and I wanna challenge myself and see what I can continue to help do and build. But a lot of things will be factored into this summer and this free agency. The unfinished business thing is part of it, a little bit.”

Here’s more from around the Atlantic:

There has been an expectation that Mike James‘ stint with the Nets will be temporary, since he remains under contract with EuroLeague powerhouse CSKA Moscow through 2022/23. However, international reporter Chema de Lucas tweets that James may try to stay in the NBA beyond this season, and Aris Barkas of Eurohoops.com suggests CSKA Moscow would be open to that idea if they can save some money and keep James away from their European rivals.
When Joel Embiid suffered a knee injury on March 12 that was later diagnosed as a bone bruise, he initially feared that it would be a season-ender, he tells ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, who published an in-depth feature on the Sixers center. “As soon as I fell, the first thing that I’m thinking is: ‘My season is over,'” Embiid said. Having avoided a major injury such as an ACL tear, the big man returned to action just three weeks later, on April 3.
Loosened restrictions on gathering in New York mean that the Knicks and Nets are in position to significantly increase their arena capacities for the postseason, as Steve Popper of Newsday details.

Growing Confidence Masai Ujiri Will Remain With Raptors?

May 17th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri isn’t under contract with the franchise beyond the 2020/21 season, but there’s growing confidence that the two sides will be able to complete a new deal that extends Ujiri’s time in Toronto, says Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca.

“Masai doesn’t share a lot; he’s very private and strategic in his own way,” a source close to Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the Raptors’ ownership group, told Grange. “But if you were asking, ‘Are they going to sign Masai?’ I would put it at 95 per cent yes.”

Grange cautions that the 95% estimate is just a prediction from one plugged-in insider, but says there have been other positive signals as of late. According to Grange, Ujiri – who has ceded some front office responsibilities to general manager Bobby Webster – has seemed more involved, engaged, and forward-looking in recent weeks. One source says Ujiri has been more active in communicating with players, both in person and via text.

“We talked about winning and winning another title with the Raptors,” one agent who recently met with Ujiri told Grange. “He seems like he’s in a really good place.”

Grange also notes that no front office jobs in marquee markets like Los Angeles and New York seem likely to open this offseason, given how well those teams have performed. The Wizards have reportedly had interest in Ujiri in the past, but it’s unclear whether they’ll be looking to make any front office changes this spring or if they’d be willing to outbid Toronto for the former Executive of the Year.

There has been some speculation around the league that Ujiri may eventually wind up in Seattle if the league approves a new franchise, as Marc Stein of the New York Times reported last month. Longtime sports executive Tim Leiweke, who hired Ujiri as Toronto’s executive vice president and GM in 2013, is involved in Seattle’s expansion efforts.

However, as Grange points out, while the NBA has seemed more open to expansion as of late, it still appears to be multiple years away, and it seems unlikely that Ujiri would take a hiatus while waiting for such an opportunity. Even if running an expansion franchise is something that appeals to him, he and the Raptors may end up working out a shorter-term contract that gives him some flexibility, Grange writes.

“They’re going to try to sign him for as long as they reasonably can, (but) if they have to sign him for less, they’ll sign him for less,” the source close to MLSE told Sportsnet. “They don’t have a lot of leverage. They want him. If he wants (a shorter deal) what are they going to say, no?”

Raptors Notes: Birch, Trent, Anunoby, Harris, More

May 16th, 2021 at 7:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Fourth-year center Khem Birch will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, giving him the freedom to sign with any team, but his comments following Sunday’s regular season finale made it sound as if he’d like to stick with the Raptors, according to Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca, who tweets that Birch said fit is as important as money in free agency.

“I got lucky,” Birch said of his late-season move from the Magic to the Raptors. “If I would’ve stayed in Orlando people probably would’ve thought I’m just a regular bench big who can’t score. I’m fortunate these guys believed in me.”

After averaging 4.7 points and 4.4 rebounds in 188 total games in Orlando (16.5 MPG), Birch put up 11.6 PPG and 7.2 RPG in 18 games (29.8 MPG) with Toronto and didn’t sacrifice efficiency — his field-goal percentage increased to 55.8% despite the fact that he was attempting a career-high 1.6 threes per game as a Raptor.

Here’s more on the Raptors, who missed the postseason for the first time since 2013:

As a restricted free agent who was a key trade-deadline acquisition for the Raptors, Gary Trent Jr. is a good bet to remain with the team, though he indicated today that he’s prepared for any scenario. According to Lewenberg (Twitter link), Trent said he understands that the NBA is a business and that – as an RFA – his future isn’t fully in his hands, but said he’d “definitely” be open to being a Raptor going forward.
OG Anunoby said that his injured calf is getting better and that he’s looking forward to carrying over his work this season into the summer, tweets Blake Murphy of The Athletic. Anunoby missed the final eight games of the season due to that calf issue.
With so many regular contributors injured or resting near the end of the season, many of the Raptors’ bench players have had a chance to shine. As Holly MacKenzie writes for the team’s official site, Stanley Johnson and Jalen Harris each established a new career-high for points in a game in the season’s final week (Harris did it twice).
Harris and Malachi Flynn didn’t receive a ton of attention this season compared to other members of the 2020/21 rookie class, but both players look like good fits in the Raptors’ culture and could stick around for a while, writes Eric Koreen of The Athletic.

Raptors To Seek Additions To Nick Nurse's Staff

May 14th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by JD Shaw

The Raptors will look to add to Nick Nurse‘s staff this summer with former assistants Nate Bjorkgren and Chris Finch gone, Blake Murphy of The Athletic tweets. Bjorkgren has since joined the Pacers as head coach, while Finch has become head coach of the Timberwolves.

Lowe’s Latest: K. Williams, Payne, Monk, Burks, Hartenstein

May 12th, 2021 at 12:23pm CST by Luke Adams

For the 10th year in a row, ESPN’s Zach Lowe has named his end-of-season “Luke Walton All-Stars,” honoring overlooked rotation players and NBA journeymen who have impressed him most over the course of the year.

Nets guard Bruce Brown, Warriors forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Raptors teammates Yuta Watanabe and DeAndre’ Bembry are among the players who made Lowe’s list, which also includes a handful of interesting tidbits on some of his choices. Here are a few highlights:

Thunder forward Kenrich Williams, who resisted signing a two-way contract multiple times earlier in his career, has enjoyed a breakout year in Oklahoma City. Sources tell Lowe that several playoff teams expressed trade interest in Williams prior to March’s deadline, but he wanted to remain in OKC, where he’s under contract for two more years (both non-guaranteed).
Suns guard Cameron Payne told Lowe that he thought his NBA career might be over in 2020, when the Mavericks opted to sign Trey Burke over him for the summer restart after he had played well for Dallas’ G League affiliate. However, he got an opportunity shortly thereafter with Phoenix, in large part because head coach Monty Williams had gotten to know him during their time with the Thunder.
Another former first-round pick, Hornets guard Malik Monk, was concerned about his NBA career last year as well, following his suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy, his brother Marcus Monk told Lowe. The former Kentucky standout has enjoyed a career year while trying to let go of tension about his role, Lowe writes. “Guys who have success in college think the NBA is going to go a certain way,” Marcus said. “You think you’re invincible. Malik fell victim to that. I’m proud of how he matured.”
Before he signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Knicks last fall, Alec Burks discussed a deal with the Bulls, according to Lowe. Burks’ familiarity with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant from their time in Utah was a factor in his decision to choose New York.
After an underwhelming stint in Denver, Isaiah Hartenstein has played well for the Cavaliers, averaging 8.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 16 games (17.9 MPG). Lowe says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hartenstein turns down his minimum-salary player option for 2021/22 to seek a new deal.

Siakam Talks Max Salary, Team Struggles In Tampa

May 11th, 2021 at 6:55pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam chatted about the challenges facing the relocated club this year and the expectations that arrive with his status as a maximum-salaried player this week, as Josh Lewenberg of TSN details.

The Raptors, winners of the 2019 NBA title, will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2012/13 season, well before Siakam was drafted. “I know that I’m a better player coming out of this and just going through the different struggles and stuff, and I’m excited about the future,” he said.

Kyle Lowry On Knicks’ Offseason Radar

May 10th, 2021 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

After not making a move for a point guard at the trade deadline in March, the Knicks are expected to resume their search in the offseason, armed with a handful of potential trade assets and a good deal of cap room.

While younger point guards such as Lonzo Ball and Dennis Schröder have been frequently cited as possible targets for New York, the team also has Raptors veteran Kyle Lowry on its radar for the summer, sources tell Ian Begley of SNY.tv.

The Lakers, Sixers, and Heat were in the running at this year’s trade deadline for Lowry, who ultimately stayed put in Toronto. Now that the six-time All-Star is set to reach unrestricted free agency, those teams could once again pursue him, but the Lakers and Sixers will be well over the cap and would have a hard time completing a sign-and-trade, and the Knicks will have more cap space than Miami. If Leon Rose and his front office are serious about pursuing Lowry, they could emerge as a top suitor and put real pressure on the Raptors.

At age 35, Lowry is expected to seek one more lucrative multiyear deal, but he wouldn’t require a four-year commitment like Ball and Schröder probably will. The idea of signing Lowry to a shorter-term deal could appeal to the Knicks’ front office, since it would allow the team to add an impact player while maintaining cap flexibility for another big move in the next year or two.

Whether or not Lowry will be atop the Knicks’ list of targets remains to be seen. It’s also unclear whether he’d reciprocate that interest — it’s possible he’d prefer to stick with the Raptors, head home to Philadelphia, or team up with good friend Jimmy Butler in Miami.

However, it’s worth noting – as Begley writes, and as we’ve heard from other reporters throughout the season – that the league-wide perception of the Knicks among players and agents seems to be improving. The team’s success in 2020/21 has been a major factor in enhancing New York’s reputation, as has the new front office. According to Begley, agents who have griped in the past about the Knicks’ inability to promptly return calls say that Rose’s group has been far more responsive and upfront in its communication.

In his 15th NBA season, Lowry has been his usual productive self, averaging 17.2 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.4 rebounds in 46 games (34.8 MPG), with a .436/.396/.875 shooting line and solid perimeter defense.

Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week

May 10th, 2021 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.

The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.

With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:

The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot

It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.

Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.

The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.

If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.

The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs

The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).

The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.

While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.

Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1

When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.

In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”

For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.

Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.

The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot

The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.

Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.

Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.

For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.

Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.