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Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week

May 10th, 2021 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.

The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.

With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:

The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot

It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.

Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.

The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.

If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.

The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs

The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).

The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.

While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.

Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1

When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.

In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”

For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.

Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.

The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot

The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.

Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.

Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.

For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.

Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.

Raptors Notes: Siakam, Scariolo, Offseason

May 10th, 2021 at 11:24am CST by Luke Adams

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, who left Saturday’s game vs. Memphis due to a left shoulder strain, said on Monday that he’s day-to-day and that he’s getting some imaging done on his injured shoulder later today, according to Blake Murphy of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Even if that imaging reveals no further damage to Siakam’s shoulder, the Raptors only have four games left in the season and are on the verge of being officially limited from the playoffs, so they’ll certainly play it safe with one of their long-term cornerstones. We’ll have to wait for an official update on Siakam, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if we don’t see him back in action during the season’s final week.

Here’s more on the Raptors:

Veteran Raptors assistant coach Sergio Scariolo has agreed to a new multiyear deal with the team, according to a report from Chema de Lucas of Eurohoops. Toronto lost a top assistant a year ago when Nate Bjorkgren departed for Indiana and another earlier this season when Chris Finch left for Minnesota, but it appears Scariolo will be part of Nick Nurse‘s staff for the foreseeable future.
In an Insider-only piece for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks examines the major decisions facing the Raptors this offseason, including how to approach Kyle Lowry‘s impending unrestricted free agency and how much to offer Gary Trent Jr. in restricted free agency.
If the Pacers win tonight in Cleveland, the Raptors will be officially eliminated from play-in contention, per the league (Twitter link). Still, Steven Loung of Sportsnet.ca contends that the final few games of the season remain meaningful for a handful of Toronto’s young players, including rookies Malachi Flynn and Jalen Harris.

Rodney Hood Has Left Hand Fracture

May 8th, 2021 at 8:54pm CST by Arthur Hill

Raptors swingman Rodney Hood suffered a fracture of the second metacarpal on his left hand in tonight’s game, tweets Josh Lewenberg of TSN.

With just four games left to play and Toronto out of playoff contention, Hood is likely done for the season. He played in 16 games after being acquired from the Trail Blazers in March and averaged 3.9 points and 1.8 rebounds in 12.7 minutes per night.

Hood, 28, has a $10,851,246 contract for next season, but it’s currently non-guaranteed and he’s unlikely to be part of the Raptors’ future. His guarantee deadline precedes the 2021 free agent period, so he’ll likely reach the open market ahead of this year’s FA class.

Raptors Notes: Tampa, Tanking, Ibaka, Ujiri

May 8th, 2021 at 6:22pm CST by Arthur Hill

Some Raptors players and staff members are eager to see their one-season experiment in Tampa come to an end, sources tell Josh Lewenberg of TSN.

The Florida city served as a temporary home as restrictions on traveling to Canada due to COVID-19 made it impossible for the team to play at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Crowd sizes in Tampa have been limited, and the Raptors have suffered through a forgettable season that featured a virus outbreak, a 1-13 stretch in March and virtually no chance to qualify for a play-in game heading into the season’s final week.

Toronto’s front office and coaching staff have shown for some time that they intended to prioritize player development and evaluation over a chance to sneak into postseason, Lewenberg states. That’s why it wasn’t surprising to see Kyle Lowry and OG Anunoby held out of a crucial match-up with the Wizards on Thursday.

Lewenberg traces the disappointing year back to an offseason decision to prioritize financial flexibility over keeping big men Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. The remaining frontcourt players weren’t able to match their production, which reduced the team’s chances to compete.

There’s more on the Raptors:

Even after the slide began, the team had too much talent on hand to make tanking a realistic option, Lewenberg contends in the same piece. There’s no reason to shut down productive young players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet or Anunoby, while sitting out Lowry after failing to trade him at the deadline wouldn’t have put the Raptors in position to get a top pick.
The unwillingness to give Ibaka a two-year contract played a significant role in sinking Toronto’s season, argues Dave Feschuk of The Toronto Star. The front office had an eye on the salary cap when it made a one-year offer to Ibaka, a move that Feschuk says shocked many Raptors players. Ibaka wound up going to the Clippers for $19MM over two years, while Toronto replaced him with Aron Baynes on a two-year, $14MM deal (with a non-guaranteed second year).
Michael Grange of Sportsnet calls on team president Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster to address the fanbase about the organization’s medium- and long-term goals. Grange notes that the Raptors have been making conflicting moves this season, with some designed to win now and others focused on the future. Coach Nick Nurse has been left to explain how the team fell from an NBA title to out of the playoffs in two seasons.

Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

May 7th, 2021 at 10:52am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
Malik Monk (Hornets)

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

John Collins (Hawks)
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Bruce Brown (Nets)
Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
Duncan Robinson (Heat)
Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Pacers, Love, Sexton, LaVine

May 7th, 2021 at 8:20am CST by Luke Adams

As we relayed on Thursday, Jake Fischer’s latest story for Bleacher Report features a number of eyebrow-raising details on Nate Bjorkgren‘s stint as the Pacers‘ head coach. However, while much of Fischer’s reporting lines up with what we’ve heard from other outlets, there has been some push-back on some aspects of the story.

For instance, Fischer initially suggested that T.J. Warren – who played under Bjorkgren in Phoenix – wasn’t consulted before Indiana made the hire and that Warren requested a trade after Bjorkgren came aboard. Fischer has since cited a source close to the situation who says Warren never formally requested a trade, and the story has been updated to say that there’s “a belief among several members of the Pacers organization” that Warren asked to be dealt.

J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star, meanwhile, tweets that the front office did ask Warren about Bjorkgren before hiring him and notes that Warren agreed to take a bigger leadership role with the team heading into the season.

Fischer also reported in his story that Bjorkgren’s acted like “a politician’s chief of staff” in Toronto when he was a Raptors assistant under Nick Nurse, sometimes preventing players and other coaches from holding conversations with Nurse if they didn’t go through him first. Asked on Thursday night about that, Nurse vehemently denied it and questioned the reporting, as Blake Murphy of The Athletic tweets.

Here’s more from around the Central:

Attaching an asset to trade Kevin Love isn’t something the Cavaliers want to do, and buying him out with two years and $60MM left on his contract would be difficult and pricey, but Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com contends the team should attempt this offseason to find the least painful way to move on from Love. Sources tell Fedor that the two sides have yet to discuss a potential buyout.
While Jason Lloyd of The Athletic believes the Cavaliers did well to nab Collin Sexton with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2018 draft, he doesn’t believe the third-year guard is worth a maximum-salary contract and suggests the team would be making a big mistake if it goes that high this offseason when Sexton becomes extension-eligible for the first time.
Zach LaVine, who returned to the Bulls‘ lineup on Thursday night after missing 11 games due to the NBA’s health and safety protocols, told reporters this week that he had taken one of his two vaccine shots when he was diagnosed with COVID-19, and didn’t experience any major symptoms (Twitter link via K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago).

Raptors’ Trent Reaches Starter Criteria, Qualifying Offer Increases

May 6th, 2021 at 7:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Raptors guard Gary Trent Jr. has reached the starter criteria in his contract, jumping his qualifying offer from $2.1MM to $4.7MM, Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets. It also increases his cap hold by the same amount.

Trent reached that threshold by starting against Washington on Thursday. The starter criteria requires an RFA-to-be to start at least half of his team’s games in the season leading up to his free agency or in the two seasons preceding his free agency.

Although Trent started only eight of 61 regular-season games with Portland last season, he made 24 starts in 41 games with the Trail Blazers this season before he was traded and has now made 13 starts in 15 games with Toronto, for a total of 36. That’s half of this season’s 72 games.

It would be a shock if the Raptors didn’t extend the QO to Trent or if he accepted it. In all likelihood, Toronto will negotiate a more lucrative multiyear deal or will have to match an offer sheet for him in restricted free agency.

Trent averaged 15.0 PPG with Portland this season on 39.7% shooting on three-point attempts. He has averaged 15.9 PPG on 36.4% shooting from deep in his first 14 games with Toronto.

Lakers Notes: Gasol, Matthews, LeBron, Lowry

May 4th, 2021 at 12:55pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Lakers got important contributions from two little-used veterans as they ended a three-game losing streak Monday night, writes Broderick Turner of The Los Angeles Times. Marc Gasol, who has seen his playing time cut sharply since the addition of Andre Drummond, posted 10 points, seven rebounds and a plus-17 rating in 17 minutes. Wesley Matthews scored eight points while hitting all three of his shots from the field.

“I think we have to start thinking more as a team, instead of mentioning guys,” Gasol said. “It’s more who we are as a team and who we’re going to be. Everyone tied to one another regardless of your situation. You play zero minutes, you play 20 minutes, the team success is everyone’s success.”

Both players joined the Lakers as free agents in November, with Gasol getting a two-year deal and Matthews signing for one year. They both expected larger roles, but are trying to make the most of their opportunities as the playoffs near.

“Like I said, basketball, it’s just like life, it’s unpredictable,” Matthews said. “You don’t know what may or may not happen, but you got to be prepared for it. You got to continue to go on. You can either go on with it or it goes on without you.”

There’s more on the Lakers:

LeBron James sat out Monday’s game and is considered day-to-day after aggravating his right ankle injury, Turner tweets. L.A. doesn’t play again until Thursday, and James’ status for that game is uncertain.
The Lakers may regret not making a greater effort to trade for Kyle Lowry at the deadline, contends Eric Koreen of The Athletic. L.A. was limited in what it could offer, but Koreen believes there was an opportunity to swoop in after the Sixers and Heat dropped out of the bidding. The Lakers reportedly weren’t willing to part with Talen Horton-Tucker, which left nothing else that the Raptors were interested in.
This year’s struggles have shown the dangers of building a team around James, who is 36, and Davis, who has been injury-prone throughout his career, writes Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times. He also notes that both players returned from their injuries to a different team, as the Lakers signed Drummond and Ben McLemore while they were out and made other changes to their rotation.

Check-In On 10-Day Contracts, Open Roster Spots

May 3rd, 2021 at 1:45pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will come to an end on May 16. That means that there are just 14 days left in the season, and just four more days left to sign a player to a 10-day contract. As of this Friday (May 7), a 10-day deal would technically cover the remainder of the season.

With the playoffs around the corner, it makes sense that the number of active 10-day contracts around the NBA has been on the decline. The number of league-wide roster openings is also dwindling.

Here are the 10-day contracts that are currently active:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Charlie Brown Jr. (runs through May 4)
Orlando Magic: Ignas Brazdeikis (runs through May 11)
Brooklyn Nets: Mike James (runs through May 12)

Of those three players, Brown is the only one who will technically be eligible to sign another 10-day contract when his current pact expires.

Meanwhile, with players like Austin Rivers, Mfiondu Kabengele, Anthony Tolliver, Yogi Ferrell, and Freddie Gillespie signing rest-of-season contracts within the last several days, more and more teams now have full 15-man rosters and may be done making roster moves this season.

The following teams still have at least one open spot on their 15-man squads:

Golden State Warriors (2)
Miami Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks
Portland Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
Washington Wizards

In addition to these clubs, the Nets, Magic, and Thunder would each have a roster opening if they don’t retain the players on 10-day contracts noted above. The Knicks just opened their 15th roster spot on Sunday night, when Jared Harper‘s 10-day deal expired.

While many of these teams figure to fill their rosters before the regular season ends – either with a developmental prospect or one more veteran for postseason depth – the Warriors are the only club here that must add at least one more player. Teams are only permitted to dip below 14 players on standard contracts for up to two weeks at a time. Since Golden State was carrying Gary Payton II on a 10-day deal up until last Thursday, they’ll have until next Thursday (May 13) to re-add a 14th man.

The following teams also have an open two-way contract slot, which they may or may not fill during the season’s final two weeks:

Minnesota Timberwolves
New York Knicks
Phoenix Suns
Toronto Raptors

Gary Trent Jr. Close To Meeting Starter Criteria

May 3rd, 2021 at 10:12am CST by Luke Adams

As Blake Murphy of The Athletic notes, Raptors swingman Gary Trent Jr., who has missed the last five games with a leg injury, is just one start (or 57 minutes played) away from meeting the starter criteria, which would increase the value of his qualifying offer and cap hold. While it may just be a coincidence based on which Raptors were available, it’s worth noting that Trent came off the bench in his last two healthy games after starting his first eight with the team. Toronto would gain a little extra cap flexibility this offseason if Trent falls short of meeting the starter criteria.