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How 2020 All-NBA Picks Could Impact Contract Situations

April 29th, 2020 at 1:27pm CST by Luke Adams

All-NBA selections have become more important than ever in recent years, since teams can agree to increase the overall value of certain maximum-salary contracts based on whether or not a player has earned All-NBA honors in a given season.

Those higher max salaries are also available to players who win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but there’s only one of each of those awards per year. There are 15 All-NBA players annually, creating more opportunities for players to become eligible for those more lucrative contracts, informally known as “super-max” deals.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the “Designated Veteran Extension,” a player with between seven and nine years of NBA experience who meets certain contract criteria and hasn’t changed teams since the end of his rookie contract become eligible for a maximum salary worth 35% of the cap – instead of 30% – if he was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

Similar incentives are available for players coming off their rookie scale contracts, as noted in our glossary entry on the “Derrick Rose Rule.” Those players can earn max deals worth up to 30% of the cap instead of 25% if they were named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

The differences between the various levels of maximum salaries can be substantial over the course of a long-term contract. For instance, in 2019/20, a five-year max contract that starts at 25% of the cap and includes 8% annual raises is worth just over $158MM. By comparison, a five-year deal that starts at 35% of the cap with 8% annual raises is worth over $221MM. A five-year contract at the 30% max falls in between, at about $190MM.

We don’t know yet what this year’s All-NBA teams will look like – or even when voting will take place – but as our informal polls last week showed, there are a number of candidates whose future earnings could be affected by whether or not they earn one of those 15 spots.

Let’s take a closer look at some of those players…

Players who have already qualified for super-max contracts:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

Antetokounmpo and Gobert didn’t even need to rely on All-NBA spots to qualify for super-max contracts — Giannis’ MVP award last year and Gobert’s back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards in 2018 and 2019 secured their eligibility.

Because both players only had six years of experience entering the 2019/20 season, they had to wait one more year to be eligible to actually receive super-max extension offers, which would be worth 35% of the cap instead of 30%.

Antetokounmpo is a lock to receive such an offer from the Bucks, who have publicly said they’ll put it on the table as soon as they can. That was supposed to happen this July, but the NBA’s hiatus has thrown that timeline into flux. Whenever Milwaukee makes its offer, it would be for a five-year extension that would start in 2021/22 and be worth 35% of that season’s cap.

Gobert’s outlook is cloudier. He could also sign a five-year, 35% max-salary extension that would start in 2021/22, but he’s not at the same level of superstardom that Giannis is, so it remains to be seen how aggressive the Jazz will actually be in attempting to lock him up beyond next season.

Players whose already-signed rookie extensions would be impacted by an All-NBA selection:

Pascal Siakam (Raptors)
Ben Simmons (Sixers)

Siakam and Simmons signed maximum-salary rookie scale extensions with their respective teams last fall. Both contracts will go into effect in 2020/21 and both include Rose Rule language, meaning they’ll be among the players closely monitoring this year’s All-NBA results.

In our series of polls, Siakam earned a spot on the All-NBA Second Team. However, I think there’s a real possibility he could end up on the Third Team. Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard will likely receive more votes than Siakam. Anthony Davis will place higher than Siakam too if voters consider him a forward. And even if Davis is listed as a center, Jayson Tatum is among those who should give Siakam a strong push for that Second Team forward spot.

While Siakam might be satisfied to end up on any All-NBA team, a spot on the Second Team would be far more satisfying from a financial perspective. His deal calls for a starting salary worth 28% of the cap if he earns All-NBA Second Team honors, but just 25% if he makes the Third Team.

As we outlined in the fall, that difference would have been worth nearly $16MM over four years based on a $116MM cap. The cap is no longer expected to get that high, but even so, missing out on a Second Team spot would cost Siakam millions.

As for Simmons, he wasn’t one of the 15 players voted to an All-NBA team by Hoops Rumors readers, but he looks to me like a viable candidate for the Third Team. If he makes the Third Team, his starting salary would be 28% of next year’s cap, rather than the 25% he’d get if he doesn’t make an All-NBA squad. Those three percentage points would impact Simmons even more than they would Siakam over the life of their contracts, since Simmons’ five-year deal runs for an extra season and the amount of the annual raises are based on the starting salary.

Nuggets guard Jamal Murray also signed a rookie scale extension with Rose Rule language, but isn’t a realistic candidate for an All-NBA nod.

Players whose next contract could be impacted by an All-NBA selection this season:

Joel Embiid (Sixers)
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans)

If Embiid – who was voted onto Hoops Rumors’ All-NBA Third Team – earns an All-NBA spot this season after doing so last year, he’d be in the same position heading into 2020/21 that Antetokounmpo and Gobert were entering 2019 — he’d have qualified for a super-max extension, but wouldn’t yet be eligible to sign one.

Once the 2021/22 league year begins, Embiid would have seven years of NBA experience, with All-NBA nods in at least two of the last three years, making him eligible to sign a four-year super-max extension that would begin in 2023/24, with a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. Even if Embiid doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season, doing so next year would still make him eligible for that same deal.

As for Ingram, he’s a long shot to be named to an All-NBA team, but in the unlikely event that he is, he’d be eligible to sign for a starting salary of up to 30% of the cap on a new free agent contract with the Pelicans. No other team looking to sign him to an offer sheet could exceed 25% of the cap in that scenario.

Other players to start monitoring if they earn All-NBA honors this season:

Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Devin Booker (Suns)
Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)
Jayson Tatum (Celtics)
Trae Young (Hawks)

These players fall into a few separate sub-categories. Jokic and Booker, for instance, are in their fifth seasons and on their second NBA contracts. An All-NBA spot – which is far likelier for Jokic – would be a good start toward earning super-max eligibility, but they’d still have to make another All-NBA team in either 2021 or 2022 to become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2022.

Doncic, an All-NBA lock, and Young, a lesser candidate, are only in their second NBA seasons. If they were to make All-NBA teams this year and next, they’d be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions with starting salaries worth up to 30% of the cap during the 2021 offseason. Those deals would go into effect in 2022/23.

Adebayo, Mitchell, and Tatum are all in their third seasons and will be extension-eligible during the 2020 offseason. Earning an All-NBA spot this year actually wouldn’t do much for their Rose Rule eligibility — they’d still have to do it again in 2021 to qualify, since the criteria calls for an All-NBA berth in either the season before the new contract begins or in two of the three prior seasons.

Still, earning All-NBA honors this year would give those three players additional leverage to negotiate Rose Rule language into their potential rookie scale extensions, which would go into effect in 2021/22.

Strong All-NBA candidates who are notably ineligible for super-max contracts:

Bradley Beal (Wizards)
Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Beal was in position to qualify for a super-max extension if he had earned All-NBA honors this season, but the short-term contract extension he signed last October eliminated that possibility. By the time that extension expires, he’ll have 10 years of NBA experience and will be eligible for the 35% max anyway.

Davis has the right amount of NBA experience to gain eligibility and should be an All-NBA lock, but the fact that he changed teams last summer ensures he’ll no longer qualify for a Designated Veteran Contract this offseason — he missed out on the possibility of the super-max as soon as he left the Pelicans.

Various other All-NBA candidates won’t meet the super-max criteria for various reasons. Some, like James Harden, are already on a super-max contract. Others, such as LeBron James, already have 10+ years of experience and can’t qualify for a higher max than the 35% they already get. Recently changing teams (ie. Jimmy Butler) or signing new long-term deals (ie. Khris Middleton) also remove certain players from super-max contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On NBA’s Plans To Reopen Teams’ Facilities

April 27th, 2020 at 11:15am CST by Luke Adams

After ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported over the weekend that the NBA will allow some teams to reopen their practice facilities beginning on May 1, clubs around the league are attempting to determine the viability of doing so.

As we detailed on Saturday, the NBA can’t unilaterally direct teams to open up their facilities, since some franchises play in states that have stricter stay-at-home orders than others due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Even in cities where facilities can be reopened, group workouts and organized team activities will continue to be prohibited.

According to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press (Twitter link), teams expect to receive further directives from the NBA at some point this week outlining what will and won’t be permitted as facilities begin to reopen.

Here’s more on the subject:

Toronto mayor John Tory said on Monday morning that he has preliminary discussions with Raptors management about reopening the team’s practice facility in May (Twitter link via Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca). Tory doesn’t want the Raptors to be at a disadvantage relative to other teams, but is prioritizing safety and will allow public health officials to make the final call.
It was unclear as of Sunday whether the Heat will be permitted to reopen their practice facility this Friday, writes Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. “As of right now, under current orders, the AmericanAirlines Arena is closed,” Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez’s Office of Communications told The Herald in a statement. “But, we have until Friday to gather information on what the NBA plans are and to work with the Miami Heat on what could be possible, safe and acceptable.”
The Warriors‘ facilities are expected to remain closed as long as the City of San Francisco keeps its current lock-down ordinances in place, league sources tell Logan Murdock of NBC Sports Bay Area. Social-distancing guidelines have been instituted in the city through May 3 and will likely be extended beyond that.
New York City’s lock-down regulations are expected to run through at least May 15, but the NBA figures to be proactive in helping Knicks and Nets players find somewhere to work out next month, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. As Berman notes, Taj Gibson and Frank Ntilikina are believed to be the only Knicks players still staying in the New York area, with the rest of the club’s players spread across North America.
Chris Mannix of SI.com explores the competitive imbalance that may affect a resumed season if certain teams are permitted to reopen their facilities days or weeks before others.

Hawks’ Vince Carter Talks Retirement

April 23rd, 2020 at 11:52am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA suspended its season on March 11, Hawks wing Vince Carter recognized immediately that he may have made his last appearance as an NBA player that night, discussing the possibility after the game.

Six weeks later, we don’t have much further clarity on whether or not Carter will get a chance to suit up again for the Hawks this summer before he calls it a career. However, speaking to Chris Mannix of SI.com, Carter said he wouldn’t be upset if that March 11 contest ends up being his farewell from the NBA. He checked into that game vs. New York with 19 seconds left in overtime – after the news of Rudy Gobert‘s positive coronavirus test and the suspension of the season had broken – and knocked down the game’s final shot, a three-pointer.

“I ended on a pretty cool note,” Carter said.

The Hawks’ original schedule called for a home finale in Atlanta on April 15, the last day of the regular season. On April 10, the team had been scheduled to play in Toronto, where Carter started his NBA career in 1998 and blossomed into a star. While the 43-year-old admits it “would have been nice” to face the Raptors in Toronto one last time, he insists he’s “good with it” if that game doesn’t end up happening, Mannix writes.

Carter also explained why he has been happy to spend the final few seasons of a decorated 22-year NBA career playing for lottery teams in Sacramento and Atlanta.

“I had some (contenders) that were offering the opportunities,” Carter said, per Mannix. “They were saying, ‘We can’t guarantee (minutes).’ And I don’t expect anyone to guarantee me minutes. But to say, ‘We don’t think there’s any minutes, but you would help our team as far as just wisdom.’ That’s something I didn’t want to do. I just wanted to play. I could lend my wisdom and be an unbelievable mentor for a guy. But sometimes showing is better than telling.”

As for whether Carter has had any second thoughts about retiring at season’s end, Mannix writes that some doubt crept in for the eight-time All-Star during the first couple months of the season, but his concerns were assuaged by longtime NBA stars Dirk Nowitzki and the late Kobe Bryant, who told him he’d enjoy retirement.

“It was reassuring,” Carter told Mannix. “Comforting. Those are the guys that I wanted to talk to and hear from.”

Fred VanVleet May Consider Short-Term Contract

April 22nd, 2020 at 7:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

Raptors guard Fred VanVleet, who may be affected as much as anyone by disruptions to the NBA’s free agency process, spoke about the situation today in a conference call with reporters, tweets Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports.

VanVleet is in the midst of his best season, averaging 17.6 points and 6.6 assists per game in his first year as a full-time starter. He’s in position to command a significant raise on his current $9.35MM salary, but reduced revenue due to the league’s hiatus figures to lessen the value of his next contract.

“I think about it. I’m human,” VanVleet said. “I feel like I worked myself in good position. I was having a hell of a year and I was planning on having a great playoffs to cap that off. I think I was in good shape. And I think, more so than worrying about what would’ve, could’ve, should’ve happened is more so like, what’s going to happen? Are they going to move the dates around? Does free agency move? How does it affect the cap? Those types of things are more so what I’m thinking about versus, ‘Oh, woe is me.'” (Twitter link).

VanVleet noted that several other players are facing the same circumstances, citing Christian Wood of the Pistons as an example. Wood put up big numbers after Detroit traded Andre Drummond and was also positioned to benefit in free agency.

“I think the league and the union will try to do a good job to make sure that the free agents get a fair shake and it’s fair negotiating,” VanVleet added. “Obviously we’ll probably all take a hit at some point, but hopefully the hit is minimized to just this year and so there’s ways to work around that stuff.”

One avenue that VanVleet might consider is another short-term deal, similar to the two-year contract he signed with Toronto in 2018 (Twitter link). He said it never would have happened under a “best-case scenario,” but he’s “flexible” now considering the league’s strained financial position.

VanVleet is skeptical that the current season can be safely resumed, but he understands that there’s a lot of financial incentive to try, according to Ian Harrison of The Associated Press.

“If our league is going to be a leader in terms of public health and public safety and player safety, you’ve got to follow the guidelines of what the virus is speaking to you, so the odds are probably against us in terms of that,” VanVleet said. “But money, right? So, I think they’ll find a way somehow, some way and try to make it happen. I could definitely see it going either way. I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t come back and I wouldn’t be surprised if we do come back.”

No More Effects Of Ankle Sprain For Normal Powell

April 15th, 2020 at 9:03pm CST by Arthur Hill

Raptors guard Norman Powell is fully recovered from a twisted ankle he suffered during the team’s final game before the hiatus, tweets Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports. Powell has been watching a couple hours of film each day during the break and is concentrating on his defense off the ball (Twitter link).

Report: Raptors Have Extensively Scouted Deni Avdija

April 15th, 2020 at 5:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Israeli forward Deni Avdija is another wild card among this year’s lottery prospects. Marc Berman of The New York Post takes an in-depth look at Avdija, noting within the piece that the Raptors have scouted the youngster more than most teams. Toronto, of course, won’t be in position to draft Avdija in this year’s lottery.

And-Ones: Ujiri, DeRozan, Tomjanovich, Bates

April 15th, 2020 at 2:57pm CST by Luke Adams

While he’s on good terms now with former Raptors head coach Dwane Casey after firing him in 2018, Toronto’s president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri admitted to TNT’s Ernie Johnson this week that he hasn’t been able to mend fences in the same way with DeMar DeRozan. Ujiri shipped the longtime Raptors shooting guard to San Antonio in a 2018 blockbuster that sent Kawhi Leonard to Toronto.

“With Casey, it has gotten so much better now with his family and him. With DeMar there is still plenty of work to be done,” Ujiri said, according to Tim Bontemps of ESPN. “But, by the grace of God, it will all get better. We have to continue to make these decisions that are tough. But that’s the business of basketball, and the position that we are in.”

While recognizing that the NBA is a business, Ujiri said that making significant changes to a coaching staff or roster isn’t easy, especially when it means parting ways with someone he has gotten close to. “You feel it in your heart,” Ujiri said, per Bontemps.

“I always say that the two hardest things in our world, in our business, is trading a player and then when a player leaves, if a player leaves in free agency,” Ujiri said. “And it’s hard on both sides. When a player is traded, it is hard on the player side, and when a player leaves, like us (with Leonard last summer), it is hard on that side. I’ve experienced all of it, from wonderful people.”

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

In a conversation with Michael Lee of The Athletic, former Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich revisited some of the highlights – and lowlights – of his career and expressed gratitude at being elected into the Basketball Hall of Fame earlier this month. “I had been through the phone calls several times and got the, ‘Sorry, not this year.’ And it was so good to hear them say, ‘Rudy, you’re in,'” Tomjanovich said. “Still getting use to it. Still bouncing on a cloud. I feel really good about it.”
After Emoni Bates became the first high-school sophomore to win the Gatorade National Player of the Year, Jared Weiss of The Athletic explores the 16-year-old phenom’s game and explains why NBA scouts are excited for his growth trajectory.
In the second installment of his breakdown of 2020’s free agent class for wings, Danny Leroux of The Athletic singles out Heat swingman Derrick Jones Jr. as one of the more intriguing options who will be available, since it’s rare for an established rotation player to reach unrestricted free agency at such a young age — Jones turned 23 in February.

Could Bulls Target Adrian Griffin As Head Coach?

April 10th, 2020 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

No decisions have been made yet on Jim Boylen‘s future as head coach, but there has been “a lot of smoke” today around Adrian Griffin and the Bulls, tweets Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. One executive tells Cowley that the current Raptors assistant is so ready for a head coaching role that he’s “over-qualified” for most jobs.

Raptors Notes: Boucher, Nurse, Player Development

April 9th, 2020 at 6:04pm CST by Luke Adams

After playing 164 total minutes in his first two NBA seasons, Raptors big man Chris Boucher has become a more regular part of the team’s rotation in 2019/20, averaging 13.2 MPG in 55 contests. Asked on Wednesday what he thinks he has proven this season, Boucher had a quick answer, per Ryan Wolstat of The Toronto Sun.

“That I can play,” Boucher said. “Obviously, there’s a lot of stuff that I can get better at, but I think that my technique I was able to show right out of the door and kind of find ways to help the team win. I think that’s what’s most important. That I could be effective in the game. I think I’ve learned that.”

Boucher will be a restricted free agent this offseason. However, given the unusual nature of the NBA’s current hiatus and the uncertainty surrounding when the offseason will even take place, Boucher said his next contract isn’t something that’s currently on his mind.

“I knew this (contract) stuff was coming, so, obviously, it’s gonna be a process, but for me right now that’s not what I’m thinking about,” Boucher said. “There’s way more important things to be thinking about right now.”

Let’s round up some more Raptors-related items…

Eric Koreen of The Athletic provides an interesting breakdown on why Raptors head coach Nick Nurse looks like the odds-on favorite to win the NBA’s Coach of the Year award for 2019/20.
Identifying, acquiring, and developing under-the-radar gems – including Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Terence Davis – has been a major factor in the Raptors’ success in recent years. Blake Murphy of The Athletic explores how Toronto’s ability to identify and develop that talent sets the club apart.
In case you missed it, on Wednesday we identified VanVleet as one of five Eastern Conference free-agents-to-be who have boosted their value with strong 2019/20 performances.

Five Eastern FAs-To-Be Who Boosted Their Value In 2019/20

April 8th, 2020 at 12:01pm CST by Luke Adams

For most NBA players in contract years, their on-court performances during the 2019/20 season will go a long way toward determining what sort of offers they’ll get this offseason when they reach the open market. And there are a number of players around the league who have increased their value significantly with their play in ’19/20, who now figure to do better than initially expected in free agency as a result.

Today, we’ll shine a spotlight on some of those players from the Eastern Conference, identifying five 2020 free-agents-to-be who have improved their stock with their play this season. Let’s dive in…

Fred VanVleet, PG (Raptors): VanVleet’s value was already on the rise last summer as a result of his red-hot shooting in the final two rounds of the 2019 playoffs, but he has taken his game to another level this season. Having averaged 11.0 PPG last year, VanVleet has bumped that number to 17.6 PPG in 2019/20, adding 6.6 APG and an impressive .388 3PT% on increased volume. Although Kyle Lowry remains the Raptors’ starting point guard, VanVleet has started alongside him or – when Lowry was injured – in place of him in every single one of his 48 games this season, alleviating any concerns that he’s just a sixth man. After All-Stars Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram, he’ll be one of the most sought-after players on the market.
Davis Bertans, PF (Wizards): Like VanVleet, Bertans had shown his potential in previous seasons before getting a chance to take on an increased role in ’19/20. And like VanVleet, he hasn’t sacrificed any efficiency as he has taken on those added responsibilities. Bertans is the best 6’10” shooter in the league, with a .424 3PT% on 8.7 attempts per game, and while he’s not exactly an elite rim protector, he isn’t a major liability on defense either. After earning $7MM this season, Bertans could double that annual salary on a multiyear contract. The Wizards, who turned down trade offers for him at the deadline, are very interested in retaining him.
Christian Wood, F/C (Pistons): After bouncing around on minimum-salary contracts and waiver claims during his first three NBA seasons, Wood enjoyed a breakout year in Detroit, averaging 13.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG in a part-time role (21.4 MPG). Those numbers jumped to 22.8 PPG and 9.9 RPG following Andre Drummond‘s departure in February. And after making just 13 three-pointers in his first 51 NBA games, Wood knocked down nearly one per game in 2019/20, at a 38.6% rate. While he probably won’t get any massive offers, a deal in the range of the full mid-level exception seems realistic.
Evan Fournier, G/F (Magic): One of the beneficiaries of the 2016 cap spike, Fournier earned $17.15MM this past season and has a player option worth the same amount for 2020/21. Given how uncertain the NBA’s salary cap situation is at the moment, it’s possible Fournier won’t exceed that salary on the open market and could decide to simply opt in. Still, his stock is higher now than it was a year ago — his 18.8 PPG represented a career high, as did his .599 TS%. It was a much-needed bounce-back performance for Fournier after he endured perhaps the worst shooting season of his career in 2018/19.
Derrick Jones, G/F (Heat): Jones’ numbers don’t jump off the page like the ones put up by some other players on this list, but Erik Spoelstra‘s confidence in the young swingman reflects his value to the Heat. Despite the arrival of Jimmy Butler, the emergence of youngsters like Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn, and the midseason additions of veterans such as Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder, Jones was a consistent part of the rotation all season long and became a starter prior to the hiatus. He averaged a career-high 24.5 minutes per game and was one of the club’s most reliable defenders. A more consistent three-point shot would boost Jones’ value further, but his age (23), athleticism, and versatility will make him an intriguing target this offseason, especially for rebuilding teams.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.