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Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

January 13th, 2023 at 3:10pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Atlantic players.

Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors

2022/23: $21,250,000
2023/24: $22,824,074 player option
Stock: Down

VanVleet was a deserving first-time All-Star last season, averaging 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.6 steals on .419/.401/.874 (.572 true) shooting through 50 games. However, he struggled mightily after the break due to a lingering bone bruise in his right knee, appearing in just 15 games with averages of 16.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals on .343/.291/.872 (.479 true) shooting. He was clearly hampered in the playoffs as well, posting similar shooting percentages.

In the offseason, he and the Raptors discussed a four-year, $114MM extension – the maximum amount they can offer based on his current contract. VanVleet felt he had outplayed his four-year, $85MM deal to that point, so he wanted to wait and see if he could get a more lucrative contract in 2023.

I definitely understand why VanVleet bet on himself. The former undrafted free agent has turned himself into a very good player through his hard work, tenacity and determination. He was also a major part of the Toronto’s title-winning team in 2019.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according VanVleet’s plan thus far in 2022/23. A significant portion of his offensive game is tied to his ability to space the floor, but he’s shooting just 32.9% from three, compared to his 37.5% career mark.

VanVleet turns 29 next month, is undersized, has played a ton of minutes the past few years, his point-of-attack defense isn’t what it once was, and he missed an average of just over 18 regular season games from 2018-22. VanVleet’s leadership and competitiveness are unquestioned, but there are a lot of red flags for potential suitors if he declines his player option, which seems likely.

T.J. Warren, F, Nets

2022/23: $2,628,597
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Warren is another player with an injury history, having appeared in just four games in the two seasons leading up to ‘22/23. While the length of those absences was abnormal, the 29-year-old has never appeared in more than 67 games in a season, averaging just under 55 games in his first six years, so durability has always been a concern.

As a free agent last summer, Warren wound up signing a “prove it” deal with the Nets for the veteran’s minimum, and it took him a while to return to action — he made his season debut on December 2. However, he has only missed one game since (the second of a back-to-back), and his production hasn’t disappointed.

Warren has always been a mid-range sniper, and this season is no different – he’s shooting 52% on those looks, which ranks in the 93^rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Through 17 games, he’s averaging 10.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists on .532/.353/.889 shooting in 20.4 minutes per contest.

As long as Warren stays healthy, there’s a very good chance he’ll get a big raise in free agency — his ability to score from all over the court is the most valuable trait in basketball.

Grant Williams, F, Celtics

2022/23: $4,306,281
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

Williams and the Celtics couldn’t agree on a rookie scale extension prior to the season, with the 24-year-old reportedly looking for more money than the cost-conscious Celtics were willing to offer. Betting on himself in restricted free agency has been a worthwhile gamble for Williams so far.

Although his averages of 9.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game are all career highs, those numbers don’t jump at you. But he’s a solid defender across the three frontcourt positions and is highly efficient, posting a .504/.404/.859 (.659 true) shooting line through 42 games (16 starts, 28.0 MPG).

If he maintains his top-tier efficiency, Williams might get more than he was reportedly seeking before the season, which was in the $14-16MM range annually.

Derrick Rose, G, Knicks

2022/23: $14,520,730
2023/24: $15,596,339 team option
Stock: Down

The former league MVP has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but he’s actually been relatively healthy in ’22/23. The problem is, he just hasn’t been effective on the court, averaging career lows in minutes (12.9), points (5.8) and FG% (.394) through 26 games.

Long a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau, Rose has fallen out of the Knicks’ rotation. His $14.5MM contract has negative value on the trade market, and his team option for ’23/24 is essentially a lock to be declined at this point.

Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the 34-year-old is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum deal in the offseason. Considering his age and injury history, even that might not be a given.

Shake Milton, G, Sixers

2022/23: $1,997,718
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Milton is an interesting player. He’s a subpar defender who isn’t a great athlete by NBA standards, but he finds effective ways to work around those limitations.

He impressed as a fill-in starter when Tyrese Maxey and James Harden were injured, averaging 20.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists on .542/.425/.967 (.652 true) shooting in nine games (38.0 minutes). While those shooting percentages are an anomaly, given his career averages (.457/.361/.822 splits, including .557 true), Milton is a patient and crafty pick-and-roll play-maker who has plus size (6’5″, 205 pounds) for a combo guard.

The former 54^th overall pick initially signed a two-way deal and then was converted to a standard four-year, $7MM contract back in 2019. He’s only 26 years old, and has certainly outperformed his current deal. Something in the $5-8MM per year range seems within reach.

Pacers Rumors: Power Forward, Duarte, Collins, Turner, Bitadze

January 12th, 2023 at 10:57am CST by Luke Adams

The growing sense among rival teams is that the 23-19 Pacers could be a buyer, rather than a seller, at this season’s trade deadline, writes Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports.

Fischer acknowledges that Indiana’s trade deadline outlook could certainly be altered if Tyrese Haliburton‘s foot injury causes him to miss an extended period. Fischer also adds a caveat to the team’s potential status as a buyer — the Pacers won’t be in the market for short-term veterans like Jae Crowder or Bojan Bogdanovic, but will have an eye out for players who could be long-term fits.

According to Fischer, power forward is the spot the Pacers would most like to upgrade. Indiana was high on Keegan Murray prior to the 2022 draft, and while the club was happy to ultimately land Bennedict Mathurin at No. 6, missing out on Murray means the power forward position remains a priority going forward.

If they want to get aggressive, the Pacers will have a couple extra 2023 first-round picks to dangle in trade talks, having acquired Cleveland’s and Boston’s first-rounders. Additionally, while Indiana viewed Chris Duarte as off limits at one point, multiple front office sources tell Fischer that the team has been more willing to discuss him in recent talks.

Here’s more on the Pacers’ plans:

Indiana has had internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing Hawks power forward John Collins, according to Fischer, who notes that Duarte and draft capital might appeal to Atlanta. The Hawks previously pitched the idea of trading Collins to the Pelicans for Trey Murphy and a first-round pick, Fischer explains. The fact that the Pacers could absorb Collins into their cap room without sending out matching salary could also intrigue the Hawks, who are right around the luxury tax line.
The Pacers and Myles Turner‘s representatives at CAA continue to discuss a possible renegotiation-and-extension for the veteran center, sources tell Yahoo Sports. Fischer suggests that the four-year, $133MM offer sheet Indiana gave Deandre Ayton in July would be an “obvious benchmark” for Turner’s side to use in contract negotiations.
Trade rumors involving Turner have slowed down as of late, Fischer observes. Teams like the Hornets, Pelicans, Mavericks, and Lakers have been viewed as potential suitors in the past, but don’t appear to be targeting Turner at this point. If the 26-year-old ends up back on the trade block, the Knicks, Raptors, and Clippers could be fits, Fischer writes.
The most likely Pacers center to be traded is Goga Bitadze, according to Fischer, who hears from sources that the club would be willing to work with Bitadze’s representatives to find him a new team. Daniel Theis is due back from injury soon and Bitadze hasn’t had much of a role even with Theis out. The fourth-year center also hasn’t been interested in accepting an assignment to the Pacers’ G League team in Fort Wayne, says Fischer.

Barnes Considered Only Untouchable

January 10th, 2023 at 5:25pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Raptors aren’t shopping any of their core players but they’re willing to listen to any offers, Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports writes.

Scottie Barnes remains the Raptors’ only untouchable, though a source told Lewenberg it would take a “king’s ransom” to trade either Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby. The rotation player most likely to be moved is Gary Trent Jr., since he could become a free agent this summer and his next multi-year contract could top $100MM.

Otto Porter Jr. Undergoes Season-Ending Foot Surgery

January 10th, 2023 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Otto Porter Jr. won’t play again in 2022/23, according to the Raptors, who announced today in a press release that the veteran forward has undergone surgery on his left foot and will be sidelined for the rest of the season.

“This was a tough decision for Otto,” Raptors general manager Bobby Webster said in a statement. “He had hoped to avoid surgery, but ultimately a decision had to be made to ensure his long-term health. We look forward to his healthy recovery.”

After winning a championship ring as a key rotation player for the Warriors last season, Porter signed a two-year, $12.3MM contract with the Raptors as a free agent. However, his first year in Toronto has essentially been a write-off.

Porter’s made his Raptors debut on November 2 after recovering from a hamstring strain. Just 12 days later, on November 14, the 29-year-old exited a game early due to a left foot ailment, referred to as a dislocated toe. He hasn’t played since and appeared in just eight games in total, averaging 5.5 PPG and 2.4 RPG in 18.3 MPG.

Porter’s lost 2022/23 season makes it a virtual lock that he’ll exercise his $6.3MM player option for next year.

The Raptors, meanwhile, have until January 15 to apply for a disabled player exception, which would be another tool at their disposal as they consider possible roster moves. A DPE for Porter would be worth $3MM (half of his $6MM salary) and would give Toronto the ability to sign a player to a rest-of-season contract worth up to that amount or to acquire a player (via trade or waiver claim) on an expiring contract. It would not open up an extra roster spot, however.

Atlantic Notes: Embiid, Niang, Trent Jr., Barnes, Young

January 9th, 2023 at 9:35pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Sixers star center Joel Embiid is listed as questionable for Tuesday night’s home game against the Pistons, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. Embiid has missed the past three games with a sore left foot, including Philadelphia’s road win over Detroit on Sunday. P.J. Tucker is probable with a sinus infection after missing Sunday’s game.

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

Sixers forward Georges Niang hopes he’ll get an invitation to participate in the 3-point contest on All-Star weekend, according to Pompey. “The three-point contest, obviously, if you’re an NBA fan, you’ve paid attention to it and watched it,” Niang said. “If you ever get a chance to be a part of that, it would be an honor.” Niang is a career 40.7% 3-point shooter and has made 42% of his attempts this season.
It’s no lock that the Raptors will deal Gary Trent Jr. before the trade deadline, Sportsnet’s Michael Grange said on “The Raptors Show.” (video link). After a rough patch, Trent has averaged 25 points per game in his last seven contests. Trent came off the bench for a stretch during a shooting slump. “He’s earned a lot of respect for how he’s handled himself as a pro and you look at his profile, his age, those guys are hard to find,” Grange said. However, Toronto will explore all options. “I don’t think it’s a certainty they’ll trade him. but I think it’s a certainty they’ll listen,” Grange added. Trent has an $18.56MM player option for next season.
Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young exchanged words during halftime of the Raptors’ game against Portland. They downplayed the incident, Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports tweets. “It was just a little disagreement. It was nothing serious,” Barnes said. “You have some disagreements but it was nothing serious.” Young said, “We just had a disagreement. No different than brothers going back and forth, especially when we’re both passionate about the game.” (Twitter link).

Atlantic Notes: VanVleet, R. Williams, Harrell, Reed, Thybulle

January 9th, 2023 at 11:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Fred VanVleet‘s extension talks with the Raptors are on hold, but he indicated Sunday that he hopes to reach a long-term deal to stay in Toronto, writes Tim Bontemps of ESPN. VanVleet confirmed to reporters that he and the team had discussions about a four-year, $114MM extension before the start of the season, but they made a mutual decision to wait. A new deal can be reached any time up to June 30 if he turns down his player option for 2023/24.

“Without going too far into it … [I’m] just trying to put myself in a good position business-wise, and not take an extension on a deal that was made three or four years ago,” VanVleet said.“I felt like I’ve outplayed that contract thus far. So just trying to get myself in a position to put the cards in their hands. They got to make a decision from an organization standpoint. I love being here. I love being a Raptor. I got a great relationship with (team president) Masai (Ujiri) and (general manager) Bobby (Webster), so I’m confident that we could find (a deal). It’s a great partnership that we have, so going forward, I’m not going to make it easy on them and they’re not going to make it on me either, and that’s the way it’s going.”

VanVleet’s comments are contained in a story on why Toronto might be active ahead of the trade deadline following a disappointing 17-23 start. An Eastern Conference executive told Bontemps that the Raptors will have “plenty of interest” in their top players if they decide to make them available.

There’s more from the Atlantic Division:

Celtics center Robert Williams has only averaged 19.4 minutes in nine games since returning from knee surgery, but he’s making enough of an impact that coach Joe Mazzulla will have to consider making him a starter again, contends Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe. Williams is averaging 7.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in that limited time, and Boston has been more effective when he’s been on the court. “Whether he starts or comes off the bench, just want him on the floor, want him healthy,” Jayson Tatum said. “Want to be on the floor with him at the same time as much as possible. I’m going to start, so I’d like Rob to start. But whatever is best for the team, he’ll do that.”
With Joel Embiid still sidelined, Sixers backup centers Montrezl Harrell and Paul Reed combined for 36 points Sunday as both made a strong case for more playing time, notes Kyle Neubeck of The Philly Voice. Neubeck believes Harrell is in a better position to get consistent minutes once Embiid returns, but says questions persist about his ability to protect the rim.
Matisse Thybulle went through two stretches where he wasn’t part of the Sixers‘ rotation this season, but he’s been showing his defensive value lately, observes Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Thybulle had five steals Sunday against the Pistons, and Tyrese Maxey said, “At this point, I think they were just passing it to him.”

Stein’s Latest: Raptors, Hardaway, Clarkson, Turner

January 9th, 2023 at 8:06am CST by Arthur Hill

The Raptors appear unlikely to tear down the foundation of their team before the trade deadline, Marc Stein writes in his latest Substack column. Sources tell Stein that Toronto is open to parting with Gary Trent Jr., who has an $18.56MM player option for next season and could be headed for free agency, but it would take a significant offer to pry away OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam.

The player to watch might be Fred VanVleet, according to Stein. VanVleet reportedly received a four-year, $114MM extension offer before the start of the season, and he and the team decided to delay any further extension talks. Stein believes that if the Raptors keep VanVleet past the deadline, it’s an indication that they plan to commit to a longer deal.

Toronto has slipped into a tie for 11th in the East at 17-23 and could be headed for a spot in the lottery. A source indicated to Stein that the team might be content with taking a shot at Victor Wembanyama or another elite draft prize rather than trying to reconfigure its roster on the trade market.

There’s more from Stein with the deadline just one month away:

The Mavericks are making Tim Hardaway Jr. available, and the Cavaliers can get him if they’re willing to take on his contract, which has two years remaining at a total of $34.1MM. Stein points out that Hardaway has been shooting much better since moving into the starting lineup, which would make him a valuable asset for a Cleveland team that’s in the race for the best record in the East. Caris LeVert‘s expiring $18.8MM contract is an easy way for the Cavs to match Hardaway’s current $19.6MM salary, Stein notes.
After reporting on Saturday that Jordan Clarkson turned down an extension offer from the Jazz, Stein clarifies that he doesn’t expect the shooting guard to be traded. Stein explains that Clarkson is significantly underpaid at $13.3MM with a $14.3MM player option for 2023/24, and CBA rules limit what Utah can offer him before the current season ends. Stein hears that Clarkson wants an annual salary in the $18-20MM range, and the Jazz appear willing to give him that when they’re able to.
The Pacers are in a much better position to work out an in-season extension with Myles Turner, since they can restructure his current-year salary up until a March 1 deadline, Stein adds. He says the team has discussed an extension with Turner’s representatives, but they haven’t been able to reach an agreement.

VanVleet Had Four-Year Extension Offer

January 8th, 2023 at 10:03pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Raptors offered guard Fred VanVleet a four-year, $114MM extension prior to the season and it was never formally “rejected,” a source told Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link). Instead, the two sides mutually decided to wait, with no specific deadline set.

Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports was the first to report the Raptors’ extension offer. VanVleet can become a free agent this summer if he declines his $22,824,074 option.

Cavaliers Eyeing Tim Hardaway Jr.

January 8th, 2023 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Cavaliers have interest in Mavericks wing Tim Hardaway Jr., Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com said during an appearance on Jake Fischer’s Please Don’t Aggregate This podcast. Fedor identified Hardaway as a possible target for Cleveland after Fischer discussed the team’s interest in Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic.

“I would add another name,” Fedor said (hat tip to HoopsHype). “The Cavs believe this player is available, and my sources tell me that he could be had. It’s, again, at the right price. And it’s a little bit tricky, because he’s on a team that’s fourth place currently in the Western Conference.

“Tim Hardaway Jr. is somebody that the Cavs have been watching and they’ve been keeping an eye on. And I think if the Cavs had their choice, it would be very, very close. And they’re not going to have their choice, it doesn’t work that way, but if they had their choice, it would be between Bojan and Tim Hardaway Jr.”

The Cavaliers have two All-Stars (Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell) in their backcourt, with All-Star center Jarrett Allen and last year’s No. 3 overall pick Evan Mobley up front. The small forward spot is the only one in the starting five that remains a question mark, with players like Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro, Lamar Stevens, and Dean Wade cycling through it this season.

Fischer, having reported earlier this week that the Cavs are in the market for a defensive-minded wing who is also an outside shooting threat, likes the idea of Hardway for Cleveland, especially since LeVert would probably have to be included in a hypothetical trade (his $18MM+ salary is within $1MM of Hardaway’s). The Mavs kicked the tires on LeVert before Cleveland acquired him from Indiana a year ago, according to Fischer, who also suggested that Dallas has been seeking another shot creator to complement Luka Doncic.

Fedor believes a trade centered around Hardaway and LeVert would be a “logical stylistic swap,” though he acknowledged that there could be some obstacles. Hardaway is under contract for two seasons beyond this one, so the Cavs may be reluctant to make that sort of commitment before seeing how he fits (LeVert is on an expiring deal). Both Fischer and Fedor also agreed that the Cavs may want an extra asset as opposed to making a one-for-one trade.

Here are a few more Cavs-related notes from the podcast:

“I’ve been told that the Cavs are not going to trade Isaac unless they get a significant piece back in return,” Fedor stated, referring to Okoro. Fedor initially said he’s not quite sure what sort of player would fit that profile, but agreed with Fischer when he suggested Raptors forward OG Anunoby. It’s difficult to imagine the Cavaliers having enough ammo to land Anunoby even if they were willing to include Okoro, since they can’t currently trade any of their future first-round picks.
The Cavaliers are about $2.5MM below the luxury tax threshold and are unwilling to go into the tax this season, per Fedor. That will be a factor to watch as Cleveland consider possible deals.
Neither Fischer nor Fedor gets the sense that Suns forward Jae Crowder is a target for the Cavaliers, and Fedor said he also heard that the club is “not all that interested” in Magic wing Terrence Ross.
The Cavs won’t make a trade just to make one, Fedor said, adding that some people within the organization want to see what it looks like if Wade gets an extended shot at the starting small forward job. Wade made nine starts earlier in the season, but has been out since December 2 due to a shoulder injury.

Stein’s Latest: Bogdanovic, Gordon, Oubre, Turner, Clarkson

January 7th, 2023 at 11:50am CST by Luke Adams

Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic may not be the biggest-name player to change teams prior to the February 9 trade deadline, but he seems to be the one who is the most in demand at this point, Marc Stein writes in his latest Substack story.

According to Stein, the list of clubs with interest in Bogdanovic has reached double digits, even though the Pistons have been telling teams for weeks that they’d prefer not to trade their top scorer.

Although they’ve expressed reluctance to move Bogdanovic, the Pistons have also been conveying that if they do have a change of heart, the asking price would be at least an unprotected first-round pick, says Stein. A previous report suggested Detroit would seek a first-round pick plus at least one more asset. Bogdanovic’s potential suitors are hoping that the Pistons’ apparent hesitation to move the 33-year-old is a negotiating ploy and that the price will drop as the deadline nears, per Stein.

Here’s more from Stein’s latest rumor round-up:

Two teams have told Stein recently that the Rockets‘ asking price for Eric Gordon is similar to what the Pistons have sought for Bogdanovic. While Houston may be trying to get an unprotected first-round pick for Gordon, the club probably knows it won’t get that sort of return, according to Stein, who views it as an example of just how high prices are in general with over a month to go until the deadline and few sellers on the market.
The Cavaliers, Suns, and Raptors were among the teams thought to have some trade interest in Hornets wing Kelly Oubre before he underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left hand, Stein writes.
According to Stein, Pacers big man Myles Turner and Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson have so far rebuffed extension offers from their respective teams. Stein doesn’t expect Utah to trade Clarkson even if no extension is in place by February 9, but is less sure about Indiana’s plans with Turner.