Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate Series

January 21st, 2015 at 8:58am CST by Chuck Myron

The February 19th trade deadline is less than a month away, and there’s already been plenty of movement. It figures that there will be plenty more to come, and Hoops Rumors is taking an in-depth look at players who seem like decent bets to change teams. These aren’t players who necessarily will be traded by the deadline, but there’s a distinct possibility that their teams will at least listen to offers if not actively shop them in the coming weeks.

Our Trade Candidate pieces explore why a trade might happen, the likelihood of a deal going down, and potential suitors, along with other relevant details. Last season, we profiled guys who were moved by the deadline, such as Danny Granger, Evan Turner and Andre Miller, along with others who were eventually dealt over the summer, including Arron Afflalo, Thaddeus Young, and Omer Asik.

A complete list of the players we’ve examined so far during the 2014/15 season is below, in alphabetical order. This list can be found in our right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” and will continue to be updated until the deadline:

Trade Candidate: Reggie Jackson

January 20th, 2015 at 3:48pm CST by Chuck Myron

So much of the intrigue surrounding Reggie Jackson is about potential. Indeed, Jackson’s production alone wouldn’t have prompted some teams around the league to believe that the point guard would receive offers of between $13MM and $14MM a year in restricted free agency this summer, as Adrian Wojnarowski reported at the start of the season. The 24-year-old Jackson believes he can become a star, and evidently he’s not alone. The questions the Thunder face are whether there’s truly enough evidence to suggest he’ll do that, and whether it’s worth paying a premium to see if there’s any way that Jackson and Russell Westbrook can co-exist as elite performers in the backcourt. If GM Sam Presti concludes the answer to either is a no, he’ll encounter the sticky quandary of whether it’s worth keeping him for a run at a title this spring with the knowledge that he can sign elsewhere come July. One of those teams that’s so high on Jackson could come forward with an trade offer that affords the Thunder with enough compensation in return for Jackson to make Presti think long and hard about trading yet another highly regarded backcourt reserve.

The James Harden trade haunts the Thunder, though few would have predicted that Harden would have become quite the prolific scorer he is now for the Rockets. Westbrook didn’t miss a single game during Harden’s tenure with the Thunder, but he’s missed 59 combined regular season and playoff games with Jackson on the team, giving Hinkie a glimpse at Jackson in the lead role that he never had with Harden. The Thunder are 31-27 all-time when Jackson plays and Westbrook doesn’t, though to be fair, Kevin Durant wasn’t around for all of those games, and with a healthy Durant in tow, Oklahoma City was 25-11 with Jackson and without Westbrook last season.

Still, the Thunder would almost certainly plan on having both Jackson and Westbrook around if they were to retain Jackson long-term, since Westbrook’s deal doesn’t expire until the summer of 2017. The Thunder have a net rating of plus 4.4 when Westbrook and Jackson share the floor this season, according NBA.com, and they’re only a plus 1.0 as a team, though the latter figure includes the prolonged absences of Westbrook and Durant. Last season, the Thunder were a plus 7.1 and an eye-popping plus 17.8 with Westbrook and Jackson together, though that’s a sample size of less than 400 total minutes. They only played 161 minutes together across 82 games in 2012/13, and the Thunder’s net rating with both of them on the floor was plus 7.5 compared to plus 11.0 overall.

The track record isn’t vast, and it isn’t conclusive, although Jackson figured Presti had already drawn his conclusion when the point guard thought he was part of the Thunder’s three-team trade with the Cavs and Knicks amid erroneous reports. That swap nonetheless had significant implications for Jackson, since it brought Dion Waiters to town. Waiters, though more of a shooting guard, seems primed to take over the sixth-man role that Jackson has held, and there’s been speculation that Waiters, who’ll still be under his rookie scale contract in 2015/16, is insurance in case Jackson bolts. Durant had some harsh words in response to the assertion that he should help Jackson adjust in the wake of the trade, implying that Jackson should take a mature, professional approach to the reality that confronts him. The most recent dispatch regarding the ever-headstrong Jackson indicates that the Aaron Mintz client is open to signing his qualifying offer this summer to reach unrestricted free agency in 2016.

That wouldn’t necessarily be the worst-case scenario for the Thunder, since that would keep Jackson around for no more than $4.434MM next season and align his free agency with Durant’s, allowing the team cap flexibility in case Durant leaves. Still, the threat of a bloated, player-friendly offer sheet from another team looms, even if the Thunder threaten to match any offer, so Presti can’t count on having Jackson back under any particular terms.

The Knicks, who tried to make Jackson part of the three-team swap, are expected to again attempt to acquire him, as Ken Berger of CBSSports.com recently reported, adding that the Thunder are resisting the idea of trading the guard. That could change as the February 19th deadline draws closer, though the Knicks probably don’t have the assets to make it worth Oklahoma City’s while. Another large-market team with a need at point guard possesses a few more assets, but the Lakers don’t appear to be especially likely trading partners, particularly if it would mean helping out the Thunder, a team the Lakers envision competing with should they return to contention anytime soon. The Rockets are without a long-term solution at the point, but the optics of trading another sixth man to GM Daryl Morey‘s team would probably be too much for Presti to bear.

The Nets, with whom the Thunder had serious talks regarding Brook Lopez, provide a better avenue. Brooklyn reportedly left negotiations with Oklahoma City unwilling to give up Lopez for a package with Kendrick Perkins as its centerpiece, but Jackson and Perkins together might make the Nets think again. Jackson would serve as a ready replacement at point guard should the team trade Deron Williams, and the Thunder could upgrade without tinkering with their starting five. Still, Jackson’s name hasn’t come up in Lopez talks, so it seems Presti would first have to warm to the idea.

The sticking point for the Nets would probably involve Jackson’s upcoming free agency and the amount of money it would take to retain him, and that’d surely be an issue in any trade the Thunder might explore involving him. It’s tough to get a fair return for a player who might be no more than a rental, even given the right to match offers that’s incumbent with restricted free agency. That’s why Presti has to weigh the needs of maximizing this season against maximizing what he can reap from Jackson in a trade. Oklahoma City still hasn’t risen into the top eight teams in the Western Conference, and while any franchise with Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka has a realistic shot at a title, it’d be an especially difficult task this time around. The Thunder are probably better off taking back a decent return for Jackson if there’s one to be had and if it can enhance their chances of winning it all next season, even if it makes their title odds that much longer for this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Brook Lopez

January 17th, 2015 at 9:11pm CST by ChrisCrouse

With a record of 17-24, the season for the Nets doesn’t look promising. The 2014/15 season is the last year for the team to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy in order to fulfill owner Mikhail Prokhorov’s promise of delivering a championship within five years of buying the franchise. The Nets have made numerous moves to put a contending team on the floor that mortgaged the future, including the 2011 trade for Deron Williams and the 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry and Paul Pierce. As a result of those deals, the 2019 draft will be the next time Brooklyn controls its own first-round pick. Prokhorov was rumored to be looking to sell the team in light of the Clippers’ record-setting $2 billion dollar price tag and the Nets have made their high-priced stars available with the intention of trimming expenses to make the franchise more financially attractive.

With Deron Williams’ latest injury and Joe Johnson’s massive contract, which has two years and almost $48.1MM remaining, including this season, Brook Lopez seems the most likely of the Nets’ stars to be traded. Lopez will make in excess of $15.7MM this year and has a player option worth more than $16.7MM for the 2015/16 season. Uncertainty surrounding his decision to pick up his option will be a potential speedbump for teams looking to acquire the seventh-year veteran, and his injury history might scare some front offices away as well.

However, the market for young centers who can defend the rim is particularly strong and based on the two first round picks that the Nuggets received for parting with Timofey Mozgov, the Nets brass should be salivating at the chance to move Lopez in this environment. Lopez ranked second in the league last season in points saved per 36 minutes, a metric developed by Seth Partnow to identify rim protection. Mozgov ranked 11th last season and his production has slipped all the way to 33rd this year while Lopez has sustained his success on defense this season, ranking fourth best in the league.

That being said, what Brooklyn can net by trading Lopez is only what another team is willing to offer for his services. Although Lopez is widely perceived as the better player, the Nets might need to temper their expectations when comparing the potential return they can reasonably get for him to the bounty that the Nuggets received for their big man. Mozgov only makes about one-third ($4.65MM this season) of Lopez’s salary and the Nets will be hard-pressed to find a team as desperate for a rim protector as the Cavs were.

The Nets shouldn’t be desperate in their attempts to find a trade partner. The team can look across town at the Knicks, as their summer trade of Tyson Chandler provides a cautionary tale. New York reportedly badly wanted to obtain picks in the 2014 draft, and they settled for the best deal at that point. The Knicks traded Chandler, along with Raymond Felton, to the Mavs for Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington and two second-round picks. Dalembert and Ellington have since been waived and the team is reportedly shopping Calderon, who was the only player on Knicks’ side of the deal who was projected to be a starter for a contending team. Still, it’s unknown what the Knicks could have obtained if they were a bit more patient. Chandler, like Lopez, is a rim protector with an injury history, but Lopez is six years younger than the former Defensive Player of the Year. The value of the haul that the Nets would receive for Lopez would likely fall between what the Knicks acquired for Chandler and what the Nuggets received for Mozgov.

Again, the most important ingredient in a trade is finding a suitor. Phoenix would have been a good destination for Lopez based on its salary cap situation and need for an interior presence but the Suns satisfied their need with their trade for Brandan Wright last week. This week, the Thunder were discussing a trade that would have sent Lopez to Oklahoma City in exchange for Kendrick Perkins, as well as a three-team scenario that involved Lance Stephenson going from the Hornets to the Nets. Talks between the teams’ executives have stalled because the Nets have major concerns about taking back Stephenson and don’t want to make a salary-shedding deal that would feature Perkins as the main piece going to Brooklyn. Lopez himself was rumored to be upset about the potential trade.

The Celtics were reportedly interested in acquiring Lopez as part of a Rajon Rondo deal, but it’s unclear whether they remain interested after trading the point guard last month. Lopez has just as much potential if not more than any player on Boston’s roster, but his large contract would take away some of the team’s flexibility, something president of basketball operations Danny Ainge might be hesitant to do at this time. Any deal would most likely hinge on getting Lopez to at least verbally commit past the 2014/15 season, and it’s uncertain whether the Stanford product is interested in joining a team that is not looking to contend right away.

Another potential suitor that will at least be interested in contending next season is the Lakers. Los Angeles may be struggling this season, but all signs point away from any sort of rebuild. The team reportedly dangled a first-round pick last month in an attempt to acquire Rondo and although that pick (originally from Houston) is projected to be a late first-rounder, the Nets would most likely be interested in it, though that’s just my speculation. The Lakers have a pair of point guards with expiring contracts (Steve Nash with a more than $9.7MM cap hit and Jeremy Lin with a more than $8.4MM cap hit) that would allow the Nets to definitively lower their team salary next season.The Lakers also have an intriguing big man in Jordan Hill, but he essentially has a de facto no trade clause in his contract because the deal he signed is technically a one-year pact. If Hill were to agree to be traded to Brooklyn, the Nets would bring back a productive center and possibly still be in contention for a lower playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.

Lopez is a good scorer, averaging 14.8 points per game this season, and he provides elite rim protection as well. The center boasts a player efficiency rating of 19.23, which is above league average. Seven-footers with these skills are hard to come by and the current market for centers makes having one very favorable. The Nets shouldn’t have an issue finding a trade for Lopez; it’s just a matter of finding the right team with the combinations of assets to make it beneficial for Brooklyn to part with the seventh-year big man.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Andrea Bargnani

January 16th, 2015 at 5:44pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Knicks president Phil Jackson is currently orchestrating a scorched-earth cleansing of the team’s roster. He began the offseason with his ill-advised trade of Tyson Chandler to the Mavericks, and most recently, dealt away Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith to the Cavaliers as part of the ongoing tear-down. Now it would appear that the Zen Master has turned his attention to ridding the team of one of the previous regime’s biggest miscalculations — Andrea Bargnani.

Finding a taker for the 29-year-old seven-footer from Italy will be no easy task for Jackson, since Bargnani has spent much of the last two seasons in street clothes due to various injuries (hamstring, calf, and elbow). It also doesn’t help matters that Bargnani hasn’t been all that effective when he has managed to make it onto the court. He’s only made two appearances thus far this season, totaling 22 uninspiring minutes, and averaging a mere 4.5 points per game. Unless former Knicks GM Glen Grunwald suddenly gets another NBA GM position prior to the trade deadline, Jackson is unlikely to find a return for Bargnani similar to the fleecing that the Raptors pulled on New York two years ago.

The Knicks believed that adding Bargnani to their roster would help spread the floor and open up more shots and scoring opportunities for Carmelo Anthony. But Grunwald completely ignored the fact that ‘Melo was most effective when occupying the four spot, which also happens to be Bargnani’s position. Since Bargnani has never been known as a particularly competent or willing defender and rebounder, this made any notion of playing him at center alongside ‘Melo a flight of pure fancy on New York’s part. The team also apparently ignored his prior injury history, which had seen the Italian miss time during four of his first seven seasons in the league, including 46 games the year before coming to New York.

So, it can be easily argued that the Knicks received almost exactly what they should have expected from Bargnani in the trade. I still can’t fathom the logic in including a 2016 first-rounder in the deal when Toronto was motivated to move Bargnani, and the Knicks had little to no competition in their pursuit of the big man. Steve Novak, whom the Knicks sent to Toronto in the trade, could have provided essentially the same skillset for a fraction of the cost, and wouldn’t have required New York to surrender a valuable first round pick, not to mention two second-rounders.

But crying over spilled milk won’t solve the Knicks’ woes, though neither will dumping Bargnani at this point. The benefit for the team in unloading him, besides assuaging the boo birds at Madison Square Garden who never miss an opportunity to let the player and organization hear their displeasure, would be to cut down its ample luxury tax bill. Shedding his $11.5MM cap hit would certainly do just that.

However, expiring contracts don’t hold the value they once did, which makes moving Bargnani a true challenge. The Knicks would likely need to attach a number of draft picks or a player such as Tim Hardaway Jr. to any deal for Bargnani to get another team to bite, and surrendering Hardaway is something I don’t see the logic in. New York has already sacrificed enough of its future to acquire Bargnani, and compounding the problem to save a few million dollars of James Dolan’s money makes little to no sense. The Knicks are perilously low on draft picks as it is, and Anthony isn’t getting any younger, so the team needs to think about the future. But if the Knicks do decide to attach a sweetener to a deal, the only candidates likely to bite are the Celtics and the Sixers, both of whom are stockpiling draft picks at a record pace.

Even if Bargnani was completely healthy this season, which he is not, finding a taker for his expiring $11.5MM contract would be no easy task. Plus, with New York trying to clear as much cap space as humanly possible in order to pursue max contract free agents this summer, it will take an improbable alignment of the stars (and salary cap numbers) for the Knicks not to be stuck with Bargnani until the end of the season. The more likely outcome is that New York will simply end up waiving him, as has been speculated, and pray that it could recoup some of his remaining salary via set-off rights in the event Bargnani inks a deal with another team.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Wilson Chandler

December 29th, 2014 at 4:56pm CST by Chuck Myron

Wilson Chandler won’t be hailed as a savior for any team should he be traded this season, but he’s nonetheless the sort of player capable of subtly tipping a title race during a season in which no clear favorite has emerged. Raw numbers suggest the 27-year-old has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Save for his rookie season and his abbreviated eight-game 2011/12 campaign, the eighth-year veteran has never scored fewer than 13.0 or more than 15.3 points per game. His rebounds per contest, discarding his rookie year, have ranged from a career-low 4.7 last season to a career-best 6.1 this year. He’s reportedly drawn interest from the Thunder and no shortage of others, but the Nuggets are apparently reluctant to give him up. Still, as the season wears on, it would seem that barring a dramatic turnaround from their 13-18 start, there will be more motivation for the Nuggets to trade Chandler as the February 19th deadline draws near.

Chandler is on an expiring contract of sorts. He’s scheduled to make almost $7.172MM next season, but only $2MM of that salary is guaranteed. He offers the potential of salary cap relief, or at the very least flexibility, to teams that might pursue him via trade. Yet Denver would have little to gain from releasing him, since the Nuggets already have more than $58MM in commitments for next season, leaving the ability to clear only marginal room beneath a salary cap that the league projects to come in around $66.5MM for next season. He’s the team’s second-leading scorer this year, with his 14.5 PPG a shade better than Arron Afflalo‘s 14.4, but it remains to be seen just how much longer he’ll be a starter in Denver. Danilo Gallinari had a minor procedure recently on his right knee as he continues to shake off the rust from having missed all of last season with a torn ACL in his left knee, but once he’s back to full health, he’ll surely challenge Chandler for his playing time. Afflalo and Kenneth Faried man the other positions Chandler seems suited to play.

The Nuggets appear as though they’re in no rush to make drastic moves, but while they’ve gone 12-12 since a disconcerting 1-6 start, a .500 record won’t get it done in the Western Conference. It’s quite conceivable that the rival executives interested in Chandler are engaged in a waiting game of sorts, confident that Denver will deal by the deadline. By the same token, there’s a decent chance that Nuggets GM Tim Connelly is merely waiting to see if the offers improve. There’s no pressing need for Denver to deal Chandler, whose contract will continue to serve as a potential money-saver for teams into next season. Still, Denver finds itself in a most unenviable position, without any semblance of the pieces needed to contend and nowhere near the inside track to the top of the draft order. The Nuggets must either act decisively or languish.

Chandler has been a minus defensively under coach Brian Shaw. The Nuggets were better on defense with Chandler on the floor during their 57-win season in 2012/13 by a measure of 2.6 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. The opposite was true last season, when Denver was 4.1 points per 100 possessions stingier without him, and this season, the Nuggets are a stunning 10.2 points per 100 possessions better when Chandler sits. That’s approximately equivalent to the gap between Golden State’s NBA-best defense and the Pelicans, the league’s fifth least efficient defensive squad.

It’s not hard to see that the former 23rd overall pick from the 2007 draft has played differently under Shaw than he did for ex-Nuggets coach George Karl. A significantly higher percentage of his shots have come from behind the three-point arc the last two seasons, as Basketball-Reference shows, largely at the expense of his close-range looks. Chandler has proven a capable three-point shooter, nailing 41.3% of his tries in the last season before Shaw took over and 35.5% this year. He kept up his usual rate of heading to the free-throw line last year, but this season he’s taking only 1.7 free throws per game, his lowest number of such attempts save for his rookie campaign and that abbreviated 2011/12 season.

The net result of the changes under Shaw haven’t affected his points and rebounds, but his PER, a stout 16.6 in 2012/13, dipped to 12.4 last season and 12.7 this year, both marks well below the 15.0 threshold for an average player. He’s played almost exclusively as a small forward the past two years, but during his final season under Karl, he was mostly a power forward, according to Basketball-Reference.

Chandler’s value appears to depend on the context in which he’s playing. That’s why it’s not difficult to see why the Thunder are high on him. Oklahoma City could surround him with the long arms of Kevin Durant and perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Serge Ibaka to minimize his defensive shortcomings. The Thunder, long in need of a reliable outside shooting complement to Durant and Russell Westbrook, could assign Chandler to that role. The stumbling block, as ever, is what the Nuggets would want in return.

Connelly probably can’t get a first-round pick for Chandler, and there’s little sense in merely pawning him off for second-rounders. The Nuggets could attempt to attach Chandler to an undesirable contract to help clear real cap flexibility for the summer ahead, but he wouldn’t be enough to entice a team to take back JaVale McGee and the $23.25MM in total salary he makes this season and next. J.J. Hickson doesn’t seem to be a fit in a crowded Nuggets frontcourt, but dealing his nearly $5.614MM salary for next season along with Chandler wouldn’t really move the needle much for Denver. The Nuggets stand to benefit from an infusion of intriguing young talent, but the Thunder aren’t blessed with much of that outside their core players.

The Rockets also make sense a suitor, given the strength of their defense and emphasis on outside shooting, and Houston has more fungible assets that Oklahoma City does. But Houston is always on the lookout for a star, and at this point the addition of Chandler wouldn’t do much to help the Rockets toward that goal. The Hawks have a top-10 defense, a penchant for three-pointers, and movable pieces, but there might not be a reason for Atlanta to make a win-now move this season.

There’s no obvious fit for Chandler. However, almost two months remain before the trade deadline, and costly injuries along with other seismic changes may still alter the picture. Chandler looms as a potential solution for a team in a position to help Denver lurch one direction or another away from the clutches of mediocrity.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Jeff Green

December 27th, 2014 at 1:37pm CST by Chuck Myron

Once, Jeff Green was to have been one of the anchors of a fast-rising Thunder team full of youthful talent. The then-SuperSonics acquired Green the same night that the Celtics took him fifth overall in the 2007 draft, and Seattle paired the 6’9″ combo forward with No. 2 overall pick Kevin Durant. Soon, Russell Westbrook and James Harden followed, but the Thunder traded Green back to the Celtics in 2011. The deal doesn’t receive the caustic criticism that Oklahoma City’s subsequent Harden trade does, but Green has proven an eminently more valuable commodity than Kendrick Perkins, the principal figure headed the other way in that swap.

Green has never blossomed into the sort of star that Durant, Westbrook and Harden are, as maddening inconsistency has plagued much of his time in Boston. That issue cropped up again this week, as he scored a season-low four points against the Magic on Tuesday before notching 22 points on Friday. Still, Tuesday marked the first time all season that Green had scored in single digits, compared to 14 such occasions last season. His 18.8 points per game are a career high, and they make him far and away Boston’s leading scorer, as he outpaces Jared Sullinger, the team’s No. 2 scorer, by 5.5 PPG. Green is putting up that number on almost precisely as many shot attempts per night as he saw last season, when he scored 16.9 PPG. It’s an improvement that seems chiefly the result of career bests in free throws attempted per game (4.7) and 83.5% free-throw shooting percentage, plus, as Basketball-Reference shooting data shows, similar gains in his mid-range shooting. He’s shooting more three-pointers than ever while making only 32.6%, so correction in that area would only enhance his best season to date.

The Celtics are looking for him to create offense now more than ever, and his productive response to that responsibility adds up to fortunate timing for the David Falk client, who can hit free agency at season’s end if he turns down a $9.2MM player option. That decision isn’t necessarily a slam dunk even if Green keeps playing as well as he is, since executives with rosters that aren’t quite as barren as the one the Celtics have will no doubt have reservations about whether Green can produce at the same efficiency without the ball in his hands as much. This season’s 15.8 PER is his best figure to date, and it’s the only time his PER has been better than 15.0, the mark of an average player. Those same executives who’ll have those questions if he hits free agency this summer are surely asking them now as Green appears the next most likely pillar to go via trade in Boston’s reconstruction.

The Lakers reportedly made an offer to the Celtics that would have sent Green as well as Rajon Rondo to L.A., and the Clippers, Pelicans and Grizzlies have apparently asked the C’s about their willingness to trade Green. The report about that trio of teams, which said Boston wasn’t interested in moving Green, conflicts with an earlier dispatch indicating that the Celtics were shopping him in hopes of landing a first-round pick. It’s reminiscent of the mixed messages that emanated from Boston for more than a year leading up to the Rondo trade, as president of basketball operations Danny Ainge batted down persistent Rondo rumors until one of them finally came true. Green seems an odd fit for the Celtics in the long term, since he’s 28 and he’ll have the chance to leave as a free agent years before the team figures to have a reasonable shot at contending again. There’s reason for loyalty to come into play, as the Celtics lavished him with a four-year, $36.24MM deal the summer after he missed the entire 2011/12 with a heart ailment, and Green has spoken of his affection for the team in refuting rumors that he wanted out. Still, Falk is not known to advise his clients to make concessions to any team.

The Celtics can capitalize on Green’s sterling performance this season with a trade that adds to their stockpile of draft picks or with a swap that packages Green and some of those picks for a star. It seems as though the route of acquiring additional picks would be easier for Boston to pursue, given Ainge’s inability to find a star to pair with Rondo, but the Celtics, in line to make as many as 11 extra picks between now and 2018, aren’t hurting for draft assets.

An alternative path, which would involve the Celtics receiving recent draft picks on team-friendly contracts rather than future picks, would be tough to swing with the Clippers, Grizzlies or Pelicans. There’s little budding talent on any of those rosters, save for Anthony Davis, whom New Orleans won’t be giving up. The Lakers have Julius Randle, this year’s No. 7 overall pick, and perhaps it would be somewhat fitting if Ainge gave up Green in a deal that brought back another player with a medical question mark, as Randle is expected to miss the season with a broken leg. Yet the Lakers apparently refused to part with Randle in a Rondo trade, so it would be tough to see the Lakers giving him up for Green.

Green is chiefly playing small forward these days, and there’s no shortage of teams that need a starting-caliber solution at that position, just as there’s no shortage of small forwards in Boston, where James Young, this year’s 17th overall pick, is buried on the bench. The Suns, Hawks, Nets, Hornets, Bulls, Pistons and Sixers, as well as the teams mentioned above, would all probably count Green as an upgrade over the players they have at the position now. Ultimately, there’s a strong chance that where he ends up this season will come down to the willingness of one of those teams to part with a first-round pick, and a reasonably attractive one at that. Teams have shown a reluctance to part with first-rounders at the trade deadline the past couple of years, but given the seller’s market at Green’s position and his performance this season, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see one change hands in exchange for him soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Brandon Bass

February 13th, 2014 at 2:29pm CST by Chuck Myron

Brandon Bass became a hot commodity on the NBA trade market this week, when reports indicated the Suns, Bobcats, Warriors and Thunder are among several teams interested in trading for the Celtics power forward. While a follow-up indicated that Golden State is unlikely to be in the mix, it seems there’s no shortage of clubs seeking the 28-year-old with a reasonably priced contract that runs through next season. Bass is the Celtic garnering the most trade talk around the league as the deadline nears, according to Sean Deveney of The Sporting News, who initially reported the leaguewide interest. Celtics president of basketball ops Danny Ainge is usually active at the deadline, so it seems there’s a strong chance Bass will be playing for another team soon.

Bass makes $6.45MM this season and $6.9MM in 2014/15 as part of a three year deal he inked in 2012 to remain in Boston. The former second-round pick made his reputation as a physical presence off the bench for the Mavericks, and he blossomed into a part-time starter after signing with the Magic following their run to the 2009 Finals. He’s started more often than not since coming to the Celtics in exchange for Glen Davis soon after the lockout, but this season is the first since 2006/07 that he’s spent on a team seemingly destined for the lottery.

He makes sense as a role player on a contending team that needs to shore up its power forward position, and that’s apparently what the Rockets envisioned him doing for them when he was involved in Omer Asik rumors. The development of Terrence Jones would seem to have dissuaded Houston from revisiting the idea of trading for Bass. The 6’9″ Jones has a slightly larger frame than the 6’8″ Bass, and while neither he nor Jones has the three-point range the Rockets usually covet, Jones has been much more efficient. Jones has an 18.1 PER this season compared to the 15.1 mark Bass is posting. Jones is also cheaper, and while Bass could provide the Rockets with an intriguing bench option, the Rockets probably have no call for a reserve power forward who lacks an outside shot and makes nearly $13.5MM between this year and next.

Bass has been a defensive minus, as his teams have allowed more points per possession with him on the floor than when he’s been on the bench four of the past five seasons, per NBA.com. Some of that might be a function of playing when defensive stalwarts Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard are sitting, but that’s not a factor this year. The Celtics give up 104.4 points per 100 possessions with him in the game compared to 101.6 points per 100 possessions when he’s not on the court. Boston also has a net rating of minus 7.8 when he’s in there, and only the Sixers and Bucks have worse net ratings as a team this year.

His rebounding is a weakness, too, particularly for any team that envisions him as a center. He hasn’t averaged as many as eight rebounds per 36 minutes in any of the past five seasons. Still, Bass earns his minutes. His PER of 14.9 since becoming a rotation-level player seven years ago is as close at it comes to 15.0, the mark of an average player. He’d be an upgrade over most bench guys in the league, and his contract, while pricey for that job description, is not entirely unreasonable.

The Suns view him as an alternative to Pau Gasol, but he probably wouldn’t be their first option if they can’t work out a deal with the Lakers, particularly given that GM Ryan McDonough is on the lookout for stars. The Bobcats have been particularly active in trade rumors this month, having been linked to Evan Turner and Greg Monroe, among others, and while Bass would be an improvement over starting power forward Josh McRoberts, Charlotte probably has other priorities.

The Thunder’s interest is curious, since they already have an off-the-bench banger in Nick Collison. The 33-year-old Collison is seeing fewer minutes this season than in any year since he was a rookie, and perhaps Oklahoma City is looking for an upgrade to Bass, a better scorer. Collison only makes about $2.6MM this season, so the Thunder would have to add more salary to the deal to entice the Celtics to take him on and to avoid going into the tax. Both Oklahoma City and Boston are in close proximity to the tax line, so if the teams hooked up on a deal, the salaries would have to align nearly perfectly.

There are clearly plenty of teams interested in Bass, but I’d be surprised if the Celtics can wrangle too much in return. Deveney suggested that a first-round pick could be in play, but I’m highly skeptical that Ainge will be able to command that. The Celtics are probably best served targeting a deal that provides salary relief and perhaps an undervalued young player they can develop.

Trade Candidate: Evan Turner

February 11th, 2014 at 4:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Sixers are in an unusual position with Evan Turner, their No. 2 overall pick from 2010. He’s by no means developed into an All-Star, but he began his career as a versatile sixth man and turned into a starter bearing a healthy share of the team’s offensive responsibilities. He’s first on the team in points per game, albeit by a small margin, and second in shot attempts and assists per contest. Still, that production is for a 15-38 Sixers club that just became only the second team in NBA history to lose by 40 points in back-to-back outings.

Most players of value who are in the fourth year of a rookie scale contract, like Turner, have either already been signed to extensions or face a summer of limited leverage in restricted free agency. That’s not the case for the former Ohio State Buckeye, since there are serious doubts about whether the Sixers would be willing to extend the more than $8.7MM qualifying offer required to make him a restricted free agent in the offseason. If they did retain the right to match offers, they’d have to contend with agent David Falk, who has a knack for matching his restricted free agent clients with the club willing to make the highest offer, as he did when he found max money for Roy Hibbert in 2012.

There’s no shortage of teams with interest in Turner as the deadline approaches. The Suns, Clippers, Hawks, Bobcats, Mavs, Timberwolves and Spurs have all been linked to the 25-year-old since a report on February 3rd that the Sixers were amping up their effort to trade him. Philadelphia GM Sam Hinkie is seeking a first-round pick in return, preferably one that’s likely to wind up between tenth and 15th in this year’s draft. That’s given many of Turner’s suitors pause, as has the notion that he could become available as an unrestricted free agent in a few months. At least one GM told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News that he’d be hesitant to give up assets in a trade for Turner if he could simply sign him outright in the summer.

Of course, not every team going after Turner is set to have a ton of cap room in the offseason. The Clippers and Timberwolves have commitments for 2014/15 that will put them over the cap come July. The Wolves are on the fringes of the picture for Turner, since they reportedly have no desire to give up a first-round pick, and they can’t trade a first-rounder for any draft before 2018. The Mavs have similar draft limitations thanks to the Ted Stepien Rule.

The first-rounder is slightly more in play for the Clippers, since they can trade their first-round picks for 2017 and beyond. L.A. has Jared Dudley on the trade block, so Doc Rivers and company are clearly seeking an upgrade at small forward, the position Turner has played most frequently the past three seasons. Still, Dudley makes $4.25MM each year through 2015/16, and the Sixers might not be willing to take on that sort of long-term commitment.

The Spurs are another Western Conference contender who could make Turner a key piece of a championship run. San Antonio might be willing to trade Kawhi Leonard for a “fabulous” return, according to Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio, but Turner probably doesn’t qualify as fabulous, and the Spurs certainly wouldn’t surrender a first-round pick in that scenario. The Spurs would probably be more inclined to give up an expiring contract like Boris Diaw or Matt Bonner, but the Sixers are reportedly cool on taking back a “lesser player” for one of their veterans.

Turner wouldn’t make the Hawks contenders, but if GM Danny Ferry is high on the idea of acquiring him, the versatile Turner could take a turn at point guard for a team that reportedly isn’t enamored with Jeff Teague‘s contract. The Sixers already have their point guard of the future in Michael Carter-Williams, but former Sixers Louis Williams and Kyle Korver could make for intriguing additions instead.

The Bobcats appear to be making a strong push for Turner, and Charlotte could wind up with a 2014 first-rounder from the Pistons that falls into Hinkie’s desired 10-15 range. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller and Kemba Walker are young players with varying degrees of upside who could interest the Sixers, and Philadelphia could also consent to absorbing Ben Gordon‘s bloated expiring deal if Hinkie wants to take back several of Charlotte’s recent lottery picks.

A majority of Hoops Rumors readers think Turner is worth a first-round pick, and if NBA executives agree, it looks like there are more than enough teams with interest for a deal to get done. The question might not be whether Turner is traded, but just what Hinkie is able to extract for him.

Trade Candidate: Arron Afflalo

February 7th, 2014 at 4:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Arron Afflalo seemed in position for a starring role when he arrived in Orlando via the Dwight Howard trade in 2012. He endured a poor shooting season and failed to become the Magic’s clear No. 1 option last year, but now he’s finally broken out. The 28-year-old has lifted nearly every phase of his game, averaging 19.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest this year, all career highs. He’s making 42.7% of his three-pointers, and his PER of 17.6 is his first of more than 14.7. All those numbers add up to an indication that he’s finally living up to the five-year, $38MM deal the Nuggets gave him in 2011.

He’s worth more than the $7.5MM salary he’s set to receive through the 2015/16 season if he can maintain his production. He shot better than 40% from three-point range in three of his previous six seasons in the league, so his touch isn’t likely to go away, in spite of last year’s 30.0% long-range accuracy. He’s seeing 14.9 shot attempts per game, only 0.8 more than he took last season, when he scored 16.5 PPG. His assist numbers have steadily climbed over the last five years, though his increased rebounding could merely be a product of needing to muck in for a Magic team that’s declined from 14th in the league in rebounding percentage last year to 25th this time around, per NBA.com.

In any case, it seems like Afflalo, still on the right side of 30 years old, is primed to continue to play at or near the level that made him a candidate for the All-Star team this year. He’s putting up his numbers on the second-worst team in the league, but he’s doing so efficiently, suggesting that his stats aren’t simply a product of his surroundings.

GMs around the league reportedly think there’s a strong chance those surroundings will change soon. Afflalo is perhaps among the most valuable trade assets on the market, according to Chad Ford of ESPN.com. The Magic are nonetheless batting down offers, making it difficult to ascertain just how highly they value him, as Ford wrote in this week’s chat. Teams have held the belief that they can indeed persuade Orlando to trade Afflalo, but GM Rob Hennigan is driving a hard bargain.

The Magic and Clippers talked about proposals involving Afflalo and Eric Bledsoe before L.A. dealt Bledsoe to the Suns, and maybe Hennigan regrets missing out on Bledsoe, who’s blossomed into a star for Phoenix in his first season as a full-time starter. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to land an up-and-coming talent quite like that for Afflalo now, unless that sort of player comes as a future draft pick. The Magic already have three extra first-rounders headed their way in the next several years, so relinquishing their leading scorer for yet another might not be appealing.

Perhaps Hennigan could find another undervalued young player as he did last year with Tobias Harris, who edged out Afflalo for the Magic scoring lead last season after coming over from the Bucks. Hennigan dealt away J.J. Redick in that trade, months before Redick signed with the Clippers for four years and $27.755MM, so the Magic know how to find value for a well-regarded shooting guard. Perhaps there’s another deal to be had with the Bucks, who could use the infusion of a fringe All-Star entering his prime if they hope to return to the playoffs next season. Still, Milwaukee appears to be hanging on to its young players this time around, and unless its stance on buy-low candidate Larry Sanders changes, Hennigan will have to look elsewhere.

The Cavs are in free-fall, and while many of their recent first-round picks have underperformed, maybe interim GM David Griffin will be willing to swap one or more of them if the team is still intent on making the playoffs this year. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is high on Dion Waiters in spite of the trade rumors that surrounded the former No. 4 overall pick this year, but if the Cavs can turn him into Afflalo, it would give Cleveland an upgrade, at least for the time being. If Hennigan could convince Griffin to throw in Anthony Bennett, the Magic would have the top two picks from the 2013 draft.

The trick in identifying undervalued assets is you have to see what others don’t. If Hennigan feels confident about a player on another team who would be available, he could put his skills of talent evaluation on full display, but the safer, and seemingly more likely, choice is to keep Afflalo through the deadline. There’s no urgency to trade him, since the Magic aren’t going anywhere this season and he’s not on an expiring deal. Removing him from the roster in exchange for a developing player or two would weaken the Magic in the short term and give them a better shot at the No. 1 overall pick in June, but they aren’t having trouble losing games. The idea is not to carry those losing ways into the future, so Hennigan need not overplay his hand with Afflalo, an asset on the rise.

Trade Candidate: Shawn Marion

February 4th, 2014 at 4:49pm CST by Chuck Myron

In a sign of the times around the NBA, there hasn’t been much chatter this season about Shawn Marion. He’s a 35-year-old complementary player on an expiring contract who plays for a middle-of-the-pack team, just the sort of guy who used to be prime trade bait. Expiring deals aren’t as valuable as they used to be, now that shorter contracts have allowed more teams to be able to clear significant cap room each summer. Executives around the league nonetheless believe Marion is a candidate for a trade, and his name emerged Monday in connection with the Mavs’ interest in Evan Turner.

Marion is about to return from a minor shoulder ailment that’s kept him out the past few days, but his performance gives no signs that his body has gone into an accelerated decline. He’s no longer the dynamic weapon who made four All-Star Games and twice averaged more than 20 points per game for the “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns, but he remains a cagey and versatile defender, capable of guarding both forward positions. He’s also rediscovered a three-point stroke that’s been dormant for more than a decade. He’s canning 36% of his three-pointers, a rate he hasn’t seen since making 38.7% of his threes in 2002/03. Perhaps buoyed by his success, he’s taking 2.3 shots from behind the arc every night, his most since 2007/08.

The Mavericks are a better per-possession defensive team when he’s off the floor, per NBA.com, but that’s been the case for four seasons running. This year, it probably has as much to do with having to share the floor with fellow starters Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis, notorious defensive sieves, as it does with any slippage on Marion’s part.

The Sixers are looking for a first-round pick in exchange for Turner, and as Tim McMahon of ESPNDallas.com points out in his mailbag column, the Mavs have their hands tied because of the pick they owe the Thunder. Dallas might not convey that pick until 2018, but because of the Stepien Rule, the Mavs can’t trade any first-rounder before 2020, since doing so might result in the team losing its first-rounder in back-to-back years. This complicates any deal the Mavs consider for Marion, since they can’t attach him to an attractive pick to entice youth-focused teams to take him on.

Still, the Celtics, with plenty of draft picks already in tow and the desire to unload Jeff Green and Avery Bradley, could present an opportunity. The Mavs once more have their eyes set on pursuing a marquee free agent this summer, so Green’s long-term deal probably isn’t of interest, but Bradley, a restricted free agent this summer, could shore up the club’s perimeter defense. Dallas would have the right to match offers if it wants to retain Bradley, and the flexibility to let him go in the pursuit of a splashier name. The issue with this scenario is that the Celtics would have to include more salary to make the deal work, and with few expiring contracts to spare, Dallas might be unwilling to take on a lengthy commitment to anyone signed beyond this season. Perhaps the Mavs and Celtics could pursue a one-for-one swap of Marion and Kris Humphries, a free agent at season’s end. That would allow the Mavs to preserve their flexibility and free the Celtics from their tight squeeze under the luxury tax line, allowing them to make other moves. Still, such a deal is just my speculation.

Another idea would put Marion back in Phoenix. The Mavs could facilitate their free agent push if they managed to get a hold of Emeka Okafor‘s bloated expiring deal, though it would require Dallas to send extra salary along with Marion. If the Suns were willing to take on Wayne Ellington, who’s guaranteed $2.77MM for next season, the deal would be feasible. Dallas would give itself extra room for this summer, and Phoenix would have a proven veteran who could be an upgrade over untested P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris at the forward positions. Plus, the Mavs could probably command a late first-round pick.

Yet even if the teams were actually considering it, that deal still might not pass muster with the Mavs, since they’d like to make the playoffs this season. Sacrificing a still-useful Marion for someone who probably won’t see the court at all this season won’t help Dallas accomplish its short-term goal. Still, the Mavs likely aren’t content to merely make the postseason and get knocked out in the first or second round, and that’s probably their ceiling this year. A championship is a long-term goal for this franchise, and moving Marion in a deal that can help the club sign a top-tier free agent capable of delivering another title to Dallas might be the wisest decision.