Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate: Emeka Okafor

January 31st, 2014 at 11:52am CST by Chuck Myron

Emeka Okafor probably won’t have any sort of on-court impact this year, since he seems destined to miss the season after suffering a neck injury this past autumn. The 31-year-old center could nonetheless have a significant effect on the Western Conference playoff race and this summer’s free agency, thanks to his outsized expiring contract.

The Suns have been planning to trade Okafor ever since acquiring him from the Wizards just before the regular season began, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports wrote this week. He’s making nearly $14.5MM in the final season of a six-year, $72MM deal on which he’s already been traded three times. Whichever team finally winds up holding Okafor’s hot potato of a contract can renounce his rights this summer and clear significant cap room for a free agent push.

The cost of taking on Okafor’s deal will probably involve at least one veteran who could help the Suns make the playoffs. Phoenix has won five of its last six, including two victories over the Pacers, but while the Suns are in sixth place in the Western Conference, only three games separate them from the ninth-place Grizzlies, who’ve been even hotter since Marc Gasol returned from injury. It’s uncertain when Eric Bledsoe will come back from his torn right meniscus to try to give Phoenix a similar boost, so the Suns, who are determined to make their fairy tale push for the playoffs come true, appear to be seeking outside help.

The current collective bargaining agreement makes it easier for teams to create cap space, so expiring contracts like Okafor’s aren’t as valuable as they used to be. The Suns may have to attach a first-rounder or two with Okafor to find the kind of deal they want. GM Ryan McDonough suggested last month that the team is willing to trade one or more of their four potential 2014 first-round picks for a star player. The Suns are also prioritizing the acquisition of players on short-term deals so they can preserve their cap space, but those might be competing aims.

It seems logical that if the Suns were to acquire a star, they’d want to find someone who wouldn’t simply be a three-month rental. If Phoenix instead receives offers that include second-tier players, it would be difficult for the Suns to trade Okafor and receive only players on expiring contracts, and virtually impossible unless Phoenix includes at least one first-rounder. Perhaps a rival team would be willing to package one or two expiring contracts that would allow the Suns to retain their flexibility going forward along with another deal that ends after next season, but that would also be hard to for Phoenix to pull off.

A workable scenario might exist between McDonough and the Celtics. Boston GM Danny Ainge, McDonough’s former boss, is reportedly anxious to trade Jeff Green and Avery Bradley in an effort to clear cap room. Green, a non-star whose four-year, $36.24MM deal runs through 2016, probably wouldn’t interest the Suns, but Bradley might. The fourth-year guard’s aggressive on-ball defense could help solidify a Phoenix team allows the 12th most points per possession in the league, according to NBA.com, and he could provide backcourt depth while Bledsoe is out. He’s up for restricted free agency this summer, so the Suns can retain him if they want to or renounce him and clear his cap hold from their books. If McDonough could convince Ainge to give up Brandon Bass, and he accepts Keith Bogans from Ainge, the Suns could come away with a pair of useful players and no commitments beyond next season. The cost would probably be Okafor plus draft considerations, and Ainge has spoken about his belief in building through the draft.

The Sixers are looking for first-rounders in exchange for Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young, so perhaps the Suns could get involved with Philadelphia. Turner would be an upgrade over Bradley, but Phoenix would be in a similar position, since he’s also a restricted free agent this summer. Hawes is on an expiring deal, but Young’s contract, which pays him an average of more than $9MM a year through 2016, could be tough for McDonough to stomach. Still, the salaries would match if the Suns traded Okafor for just Turner and Young, and the Suns could facilitate such a deal with a first-rounder.

Okafor might not bring the sort of return he could have under the old CBA, but he’s nonetheless an intriguing asset who could bring in a return that helps the Suns now and for the future, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if Western Conference GMs, fearing Phoenix’s warm-weather, large-market advantages in free agency, are skittish to help the fast-rebuilding Suns along, leaving McDonough to deal chiefly with Eastern Conference clubs. GMs around the league expect the Suns to trade Okafor somewhere, so I’d be surprised if Phoenix doesn’t cash in its Okafor ticket by the deadline.

Trade Candidate: Kyle Lowry

January 28th, 2014 at 3:05pm CST by Chuck Myron

Kyle Lowry‘s season has followed a most unusual script. The point guard of a team that seemed to be disintegrating in the immediate wake of the Rudy Gay trade, when nearly every Raptor was on the block, Lowry was on the verge of heading to the Knicks before James Dolan vetoed his acquisition. The Nets and Warriors were among an “ever-growing” list of trade suitors for the soon-to-be free agent just as Toronto neared a deal with New York, but GM Masai Ujiri set a high price for Lowry even as he aggressively tried to move him. That ransom began to prove wise beginning with a stretch of three straight late December games in which Lowry scored 20 points or more. Those performances were at the start of a run of seven wins in eight games for the Raptors, who took control of the Atlantic Division.

The Raptors are 23-21 after Monday night’s win at second-place Brooklyn, and they’re tied with the Hawks for the third playoff seed in the Eastern Conference. Lowry has averaged 18.6 points, 8.3 assists and just 2.0 turnovers per contest since December 20th, the night of the first of those three consecutive 20-point performances. Lowry, who’s never made more than 37.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc in a single season, is draining 44.8% of his three-pointers during this hot streak. Virtually all of his numbers are up over the past month or so, giving the eighth-year veteran a realistic chance to make his first All-Star Game.

It adds up to a dilemma for Ujiri. Lowry is 27, so his sudden leap may be a function of having entered his prime. He may also be in line for a regression. Ujiri has to gauge how much of Lowry’s improved play will persist, and what it means for his value on the trade market as well as in free agency.

Most around the league feel as though the Raptors are more likely to keep Lowry than trade him, but that could have more to do with the unwillingness of other teams to meet Ujiri’s price than Toronto’s eagerness to deal him away, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported this week. Lowry’s impending free agency complicates matters, particularly since it’s difficult to gauge what he’ll be worth on the open market this summer. Eric Koreen of the National Post recently suggested bidding could start at $8MM a year, quite a sum for a guy whose $6.21MM salary for this season didn’t seem like a bargain before his torrid play of late.

Concern about his locker room presence apparently helped dissuade the Warriors from going after him too hard last month. I think that’s more a reflection of a tight-knit W’s team not wanting to mess with its chemistry than an indictment of Lowry’s character, but it nonetheless suggests an up-and-coming club with plenty of young players might hesitate to bring him on.

That could be the case for the rebuilding Magic, one of the teams that’s drawn mention as a Lowry suitor in the past several weeks. Orlando’s interest would seemingly center on a feeling that Lowry is a better long-term option at the point than Victor Oladipo, a natural shooting guard, and the Magic would bank on the notion that they could re-sign Lowry this summer. The Magic have plenty of youth and draft picks they could offer Ujiri, but little that would help the team hold on to a high playoff seed this season.

The Pelicans, whom Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio identified as a Lowry suitor in the same report, are a curious inclusion in the race, particularly since the report came out before Jrue Holiday went down with a stress fracture in his leg. Holiday’s salaries are in the $10MM range for the rest of his contract, which runs through 2016/17, so maybe New Orleans sees Lowry as a someone who could provide similar production and, at worst, re-sign for about the same money. Ujiri might want Holiday, who’s four years younger and can’t bolt Toronto this summer, but there’s no indication that New Orleans has been considering a one-for-one swap of point guards.

Grantland’s Zach Lowe wrote about the Heat’s desire to add Lowry, but Miami doesn’t have the assets Toronto would want in return, as Lowe notes. Any move that strengthens Miami would lessen the chance that the Raptors could pull an upset if they were to meet in the playoffs, and if Ujiri is optimistic about this season, that might be in the back of his mind.

Ujiri came to a team at a crossroads when he joined the Raptors this summer, and his assignment has only become more complicated since. What the team does with Lowry, and, just as importantly, what the Raptors sense Lowry wants to do regarding them in the summer, figures to have a lasting effect on the franchise. Ujiri has plenty of options with Lowry, and if he wants to add another Executive of the Year trophy to his mantle, making the right choice in the next three weeks will go a long way toward that end.

Trade Candidate: Andre Miller

January 24th, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

It’s been more than two weeks since Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports tweeted that many around the league believed the Nuggets were trying to trade Andre Miller within the next 48 hours. Talk surrounding the 37-year-old point guard has cooled considerably since then, even though he still hasn’t appeared in a game since his confrontation with coach Brian Shaw during a game on January 2nd. The news that Danilo Gallinari will miss the season no doubt deals a fatal blow to whatever hope of contention the Nuggets may have clung to, meaning there’s less reason to keep an wily-but-aging backup around.

The notion that the Nuggets might trade Miller predates his clash with Shaw, as evidenced by chatter from this past summer. Earlier this season, teams around the league were expecting the Nuggets to unload Miller before the deadline. Miller’s value has no doubt taken a hit during the season, the least productive of his 15-year career. His minutes are at unprecedented lows, but his per-36-minute scoring and assist averages are lower than ever, too.

Still, he’s one of the most durable players in the history of the league. This is the first season in which he’s missed more than two games, but all of his absences have come as a result of his rift with Shaw rather than injury. His statistical declines this season could have as much to do with a poor fit in Shaw’s system as they do with any physical breakdown. Surely, all of his skills haven’t eroded so quickly.

Miller doesn’t possess the floor-stretching ability to shoot from long range that many teams require of their perimeter players, as most of his shots come from around the basket. Still, he creates plenty of looks for others with his crafty passing. He somehow managed to finish 18th in the league in total assists last season despite playing only 26.2 minutes per game, and he was 17th in assist percentage.

The 15th year veteran could help a team like the Suns, who are last in the league in assist percentage, according to NBA.com, in spite of the presence of Goran Dragic to pick up the slack while Eric Bledsoe‘s torn meniscus heals. Suns owner Robert Sarver calls his team a work in progress, so perhaps he’d be willing to have GM Ryan McDonough bring Miller aboard to show Bledsoe a few tricks and to help the team make the playoffs this season. The Nuggets might like to acquire Channing Frye to help with their shooting, though adding another big man to Denver’s crowded frontcourt doesn’t seem ideal.

The Kings are fourth worst in assist percentage, which explains their entreaties for Miller. Sacramento is reportedly anxious to move Marcus Thornton, but their package of either Thornton or Jimmer Fredette plus a second-round pick for Miller apparently hasn’t prompted the Nuggets to budge. That could change by the deadline, and Thornton could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for Denver, but it doesn’t look like there’s much traction here.

The Rockets have the sixth-worst assist percentage, and I’m not sure if either Patrick Beverley or Jeremy Lin is a championship-caliber point guard. Houston possesses plenty of long-range shooting that the Nuggets could use, but analytically driven GM Daryl Morey might not want to sacrifice any of the three-point arsenal he so highly values to go after an aging point guard who might not be a significant upgrade. The Knicks have been trying to find a way into Miller talks, but they don’t appear to have the sort of assets the Nuggets are seeking.

Miller, for as much guile, ball movement, and reliability as he can provide, is overpaid this season on a $5MM salary. He makes $4.625MM next year in the final year of his deal, but that’s only partially guaranteed for $2MM as long as he’s waived before July. He seems the sort of player that a contender willing to swallow hard and open its pockets would trade for in hopes of inching closer to a title. He could also be a fill-in for one of those teams if in case of an injury at the point guard position. The Nuggets don’t have much at stake this season, so they can afford to sit back and wait for other teams to come calling. The urgency lies with the teams seeking Miller, and so I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver doesn’t trade him until the deadline, when teams are under pressure to submit their best offers.

Trade Candidate: Danny Granger

January 17th, 2014 at 2:51pm CST by Chuck Myron

There’d be no reason for Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird to tinker with his roster if basketball were the only matter at hand. Indiana is a league-best 31-7 and has a legitimate shot to win its first NBA championship. The starting five is outscoring teams by 14.3 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com, and longtime starter Danny Granger isn’t complaining about his role as a bench player. The one-time All-Star returned last month after missing the first 25 games with a strained calf. Alas, revenue constraints on the small-market Pacers may prove the team’s greatest obstacle to sustained success.

Retaining Lance Stephenson will undoubtedly be the team’s top priority this summer, a task that proves more difficult by the day as the former second-round pick plays his way into consideration for an All-Star nod. Stephenson’s career took off last year when he went into the starting lineup to replace Granger, whose left knee trouble forced him to miss all but five games in 2012/13, a season in which Indiana came within a game of the Finals. That created the perception that Granger is expendable, particularly given his expiring contract. Bird resisted the notion of a trade this summer, and while he said last month that he isn’t seeking to trade Granger, he added that he’d consider the right deal if it came along.

The Pacers have $60,055,974 committed for next season, which doesn’t include the bulk of Luis Scola‘s partially guaranteed contract. Keeping Scola would add close to another $4MM to the books. Rival executives believe Stephenson will command $7-9MM on the market this summer, so an $8MM salary for him would leave the Pacers with roughly $3.7MM left below the $75.7MM projected luxury tax line, with three roster spots to fill. Indiana’s ownership has been adamant that it doesn’t want to pay the tax, so that doesn’t leave much room to re-sign Granger, a career 17.9 PPG scorer who’s used to eight-figure salaries, like the more than $14MM he’s making this season. The Pacers can create more room if they release Scola, meaning the choice may come down to whether they think Granger or the Argentinian power forward is the better bench piece.

Granger hasn’t done much to convince the Pacers or any other teams of his worth so far this season, but his drop-offs in per-36-minute production are to be expected given prolonged absences over the past year and a half. He’s only two seasons removed from serving as the leading scorer on a Pacers team that challenged the Heat in the second round, but even then, his scoring average had declined for the third straight year. Granger is only 30, but with his injuries and the drop-off that preceded it, he seems to have prematurely hit the downward arc of his career.

He figures to play better as the season goes on, and he could still serve as a valuable contributor off the bench for a title contender, whether it’s the Pacers or another club. I’m not sure that Bird would consider swapping him to a team that could derail his own championship hopes this season, so I’d imagine a landing spot for Granger would have to be a team that’s safely out of the running.

Granger’s expiring contract would be a valuable chip for a franchise intent on clearing cap space for next summer. The Lakers might fit that bill, but most of their players are on expiring contracts anyway, and Indiana probably wouldn’t want the mercurial Nick Young or the broken-down Steve Nash. The Mavs are seemingly always in the business of making a splash in the summer, whether they wind up doing so or not, and perhaps they could construct a deal around some of their younger players on cheaper contracts. The Pacers would no doubt want the bulk of the salary to come in the form of expirings to preserve room for Stephenson, but I’m not sure the Mavs, with hopes of sneaking into the playoffs, would give up Shawn Marion, their only $5MM+ expiring contract aside from Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas doesn’t appear eager to make a trade happen, anyway. The Hawks could accommodate many hypothetical trades, but a Granger deal isn’t one of them, since Atlanta’s largest expiring deal is Elton Brand‘s $4MM contract.

The 2014 free agent market doesn’t look as promising as it once did, meaning teams won’t be as motivated to take on a large expiring contract as they might have been. Bird could sweeten the pot with a future first-rounder, since even though this year’s pick is heading to Phoenix, Indiana has otherwise kept all of its own draft choices. Still, another team would have to offer quite an attractive prize to motivate Bird to make such a deal.

Ideally, the Pacers would find a player capable of serving as a game-changing sixth man with a price that won’t be that high for next season. Such a commodity is hard to find, but perhaps Granger himself is just the man to fit that bill. Granger’s performance over the five weeks between now and the deadline will be key. If he can shake off the rust and play like a reasonable facsimile of his former self, the Pacers are probably better off keeping him and going all-in for a title this season. If not, there’s certainly no guarantee a worthwhile deal will come along, even if Bird would be willing to take it.

Trade Candidate: Thaddeus Young

January 13th, 2014 at 9:59am CST by Chuck Myron

Thaddeus Young is having a career year, having revived a dormant three-point stroke that’s helping him average a career high 17.8 points a game. He’s also at or near high watermarks in rebounding, assists, steals and blocks. Any team in the NBA would love to have the 25-year-old, as an NBA executive recently told Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News. Still, Young needn’t have his bags packed. A unnamed GM who spoke to ESPN’s Chris Broussard at the start of the season pointed to Young’s contract as an impediment to a swap, saying he didn’t know any team that would relinquish anything of value to trade for him.

The deal runs through 2015/16 with average salaries of $8.6MM. The escalating raises in the deal mean he’ll make more than $9.4MM in 2014/15 and more than $9.9MM in the final season of the pact. Young’s strong performance might have changed a few minds around the league, but it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be easy for GM Sam Hinkie to find a deal that works for the Sixers.

Young’s “soft” trade request last month probably exacerbates that challenge, as do his comments indicating a lack of enthusiasm for playing with inexperienced teammates. Rival executives who sense that Young is putting pressure on the Sixers to deal him probably feel as though their offers for the power forward needn’t be too strong. Hinkie said late this summer that he didn’t find it necessary to deal away Young or any of his other veterans, but a more recent report indicated the Sixers were heavily shopping Young. Even as the former 12th overall pick laughs off the assertion that he’s disgruntled with the Sixers, Young’s attitude could worsen if he remains a part of a long-term rebuilding effort.

The Rockets were linked to Young when they were aggressively shopping Omer Asik last month, and such a one-for-one swap would make some degree of sense from Houston’s perspective. Young, as long as his 39.3% three-point accuracy holds up, could serve as the sort of stretch power forward who fits the Rockets system. But while Young’s cap figure is only slightly higher than Asik’s, Young’s deal lasts a season longer, and that could tie up money Houston may have earmarked for Chandler Parsons once his bargain contract lapses after 2014/15. Plus, the emergence of Terrence Jones of late might dissuade the Rockets from trading for another power forward.

The Bobcats are giving the indication they’ll be buyers at the trade deadline, so perhaps they’ll get into talks for Young. Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors speculated that Philadelphia could be a potential destination for Ben Gordon, and the Sixers, with the most cap space in the league, can accommodate Gordon’s bloated $13.2MM contract in a one-for-one swap for Young. That would amount to salary dump come summer for Philadelphia, and it’s not as if the Sixers don’t have plenty of flexibility already. So, I’d imagine the Bobcats would have to include an attractive draft pick or another intriguing asset for the Sixers to bite.

Maybe the Pistons could get involved if they’re skittish about the offers Greg Monroe might receive in restricted free agency this summer. Detroit would have to give Philadelphia more to meet salary-matching requirements, so talks could bog down over the sort of additional assets the Pistons would relinquish. Young probably represents a cheaper long-term option that re-signing Monroe would entail, so Detroit is one team that might not mind Young’s contract. I’d imagine that would prompt the Sixers to demand a worthwhile extra asset in the trade. Of course, the entire notion is just my speculation.

We’ll probably hear of at least a few teams jumping into discussions for Young in the next few weeks as the February 20th trade deadline approaches. Of course, there’s no real urgency for Hinkie to make a move by that date, as a trade would be just as workable over the summer, from Philly’s perspective. Earlier this season, Young professed a love for Philadelphia, so if he begins to see past his frustration with the club’s rebuilding process, there might not be reason for the Sixers to trade him at all. Still, Young’s contract seems like the sort of deal the team will want to unload sooner or later, and with his play at unprecedented levels, the time might be right for Hinkie to sell high.

Trade Candidate: Ben Gordon

January 10th, 2014 at 3:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier in the week, Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld reported that the Bobcats, expected to be buyers at the trade deadline, are shopping Ben Gordon and his expiring contract in an effort to land a player who could help the team win now.

A longtime Bull and Piston, Gordon is still just 30 years old, but has seen his production and his minutes decline sharply during his time in Charlotte. He’s posting career-lows nearly across the board this season, including PPG (5.6), FG% (.374), PER (8.2), and minutes per game (15.1). In other words, his contract, rather than his performance, will likely dictate his his trade value.

That was also the case back in 2012, when the Bobcats first acquired Gordon from the Pistons for Corey Maggette. Gordon’s contract ran a year longer than Maggette’s, so Detroit included a first-round pick for the opportunity to create cap space in the summer of 2013, then eventually used that space to sign Josh Smith. Gordon’s deal is now expiring, so the Bobcats shouldn’t necessarily have to throw in a first-round pick of their own to find a taker, but still, at $13.2MM, his salary won’t be an easy one to move.

The most logical fits for Gordon are teams without playoff aspirations looking to create future cap flexibility. For a club like that, sending out a productive player on a multiyear contract would allow for more cap space this July, and depending on the player, could earn them an extra asset or two from Charlotte. It would also reduce the talent on this season’s roster, allowing the team to land a higher spot in the 2014 draft lottery.

So which teams might fit that bill and be a fit for a Gordon deal? Here are a few ideas:

Atlanta Hawks:
Following Al Horford‘s injury, it’s not clear what direction the Hawks are heading, but the team’s top five highest-paid players (Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, and Louis Williams) are all on multiyear contracts, so there could be a fit if Atlanta’s looking to sell. Of those names though, Williams looks like the most viable possibility, and his modest $5.23MM cap hit would make matching salaries difficult. I also still think the Hawks have enough talent to earn a solid playoff spot in the East, so they may not have interest in selling anyway.

Boston Celtics:
The Celtics’ decision to trade Courtney Lee‘s three-year contract for Jerryd Bayless‘ expiring deal shows that the team is interested in exactly this sort of move, meaning it’s highly likely that Danny Ainge talks to the Bobcats. Charlotte almost certainly won’t have any interest in taking back Gerald Wallace unless the C’s throw in a first-round pick or two, but I could see Jeff Green and/or Brandon Bass drawing interest from Charlotte, perhaps with Keith Bogans‘ expiring deal included as salary filler.

A couple things to keep in mind when brainstorming Celtics/Bobcats fits: Charlotte has had interest in Kris Humphries before, having discussed a Gordon/Humphries swap with the Nets last year. Additionally, Boston will be reluctant to take on any extra 2013/14 salary in a deal, since the team doesn’t have a whole lot of room below the tax line.

Chicago Bulls:
Like the Celtics, the Bulls made a cost-cutting trade this week, but Chicago’s deal also saw the team land three draft picks, including a first-rounder. So Gar Forman, John Paxson, and company almost certainly wouldn’t consider a reunion with Gordon for purely financial reasons. But if the Bobcats had any interest at all in a still-productive Carlos Boozer, who’s earning $15.3MM this season and $16.8MM next year, I imagine the Bulls would be all ears. Boozer’s 2014/15 salary could be removed from the books this summer via the amnesty clause, but if the organization could find a way to avoid having to actually pay that salary, it’d be worth considering.

Los Angeles Lakers:
Multiple reports have suggested that the Lakers’ asking price for Pau Gasol remains too high, but if the Bobcats were willing to come close to that price, perhaps there’d be a match. A package such as Gordon, Jannero Pargo, Anthony Tolliver, and a first-round pick for Gasol would work under CBA rules, reduce the Lakers’ tax bill, and allow them to pick up an asset without taking on any multiyear contracts. There are issues with my proposal, of course, such as whether the Bobcats would part with a first-rounder for Pau, or whether the Lakers would want to waive anyone to make it work. Still, it’d at least be a starting point.

Milwaukee Bucks:
We still haven’t seen any clear indications that the Bucks are resigned to their lottery fate and looking toward the long-term rather than the short-term. But if they go that route, they have some chips to put on the table. O.J. Mayo, Zaza Pachulia, and Ersan Ilyasova are all earning between $5-8MM annually, and are under contract through at least 2016. Gary Neal ($3.25MM) is also reportedly on the trade block.

Philadelphia 76ers:
Everyone’s favorite hypothetical trade partner, the 76ers still haven’t cashed in potential chips like Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, and Thaddeus Young. Those players are all talented enough that the Sixers would need a sweetener or two along with Gordon to make any deal realistic, whether that means getting a draft pick or young player from the Bobcats or shedding Jason Richardson‘s contract (or both). It’s probably a long shot, but there could be some combination of players and picks that would help both sides.

Trade Candidate: Andrew Bynum

January 2nd, 2014 at 3:22pm CST by Luke Adams

It may seem like a lifetime ago, but we’re less than 18 months removed from discussions about whether Andrew Bynum would be the third maximum-salary player in 2013 free agency, alongside Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. Coming off an All-Star 2011/12 season in Los Angeles, the young center appeared to have finally put it all together, and was the main outgoing piece in a blockbuster four-team deal that landed the Lakers the only center in the NBA (Howard) believed to be better than Bynum.

Of course, after a nightmarish lost season in Philadelphia, Bynum’s stock plummeted, and the Cavaliers certainly didn’t have to pay him the maximum salary in free agency last summer. In fact, the team only had to guarantee him $6MM. The rest of his $12.25MM salary for 2013/14 and the entirety of his $12.54MM salary for 2014/15 are non-guaranteed.

That contract is exactly what makes Bynum such an interesting trade candidate today. If he were simply on the books for a guaranteed $12MM+ salary already, he’d likely be drawing little interest, even though that second season essentially amounts to a team option. After all, in today’s NBA, expiring contracts aren’t quite the tantalizing trade chips they once were, since most players are signing shorter-team deals, and only a handful of teams have tied up their cap for multiple years down the road. But Bynum’s contract represents a different kind of expiring deal. It’s one that will likely expire next week, rather than at season’s end, since he’s expected to be waived on Tuesday, prior to the NBA’s contract guarantee deadline.

Before we get into which teams might be interested in acquiring Bynum only to release him, it’s worth considering whether there are clubs who may simply want to take a half-season flier on the former All-Star. He’s been healthy enough to appear in 24 games so far this season, and it’s possible he’d fit in better on another roster. By January 7th, Cleveland will have paid about $5MM about Bynum’s salary, so it’s not entirely out of the question that another team would be willing to eat the remaining $7MM or so to gamble on the 26-year-old’s upside.

Still, while that’s a plausible scenario, it’s not a likely one. Considering Bynum will probably be released anyway, trading for him to keep him wouldn’t make much sense, since he could be available as a free agent for a much cheaper price.

Bynum’s true value as a trade chip would come in a deal that allows a taxpaying team to reduce its bill or perhaps even move entirely out of tax territory. That’s why the Lakers and Bulls have been cited as potential fits. Neither team looks anything like a title contender, so it would make sense for those clubs to trade an expensive veteran for Bynum to cut costs.

Let’s look at the Bulls first. In a hypothetical trade for Bynum, Chicago would want to move Carlos Boozer and his multiyear deal, while Cleveland would rather get its hands on Luol Deng and his expiring contract. The principle is the same in both cases though: Bynum’s $12.25MM salary could be swapped straight up for Deng ($14.28MM) or Boozer ($15.3MM). Then, if the Bulls waived Bynum by next Tuesday, he’d only count as $6MM against their books, saving the team in excess of $8MM, plus tax penalties. Because Bynum’s full salary counts in a trade for salary-matching purposes, his deal (and Hedo Turkoglu‘s, which is similarly structured) is optimal for shedding payroll. The Lakers could make a similar move with Pau Gasol, though he couldn’t be dealt straight-up for Bynum.

While this sort of move may make sense on paper for the Lakers or Bulls, both teams appear reluctant to dive in, for a variety of reasons. The word “rebuild” is foreign to the Lakers, and the Bulls came into the season with championship aspirations, so it would take a major philosophical shift for either club to make a move for the sole purpose of saving money and bottoming out. It would also make Gasol or Deng very unlikely to return to the Lakers or Bulls, respectively, in the summer of 2014, since their current teams would no longer hold their Bird rights. The Bulls have expressed a desire to re-sign Deng, and the Lakers haven’t ruled out the possibility of retaining Pau.

The Lakers and Bulls aren’t the only teams that could line up with the Cavs as potential trade partners. Acquiring Bynum to cut him could make some sense for the Celtics, Hawks, and Grizzlies, among other teams. But I’d imagine none of those clubs would be willing to give up a productive player for Bynum without getting at least one other piece from Cleveland in the deal. The Cavs have a handful of movable assets, including young players and future draft picks, so packaging one or more of them with Bynum would allow Cleveland’s trade partner to show its fans that the move wasn’t completely financially motivated.

In essence then, although Bynum represents a fascinating trade chip, he’s one that will likely have to be paired with another piece to be moved by Tuesday. Whether the Cavs are willing to include that second piece will likely depend on how committed the franchise is to making a playoff push this season. If that postseason berth remains the franchise’s top priority, we should expect Cleveland to move Bynum for a productive veteran. If the long-term plan is still the primary focus, then the Cavs could simply cut Bynum and pocket the savings themselves.

Trade Candidate: Ryan Anderson

December 20th, 2013 at 8:28pm CST by Chuck Myron

Ryan Anderson has played some of the best basketball of his career this season. Injuries to Anthony Davis and others have left the Pelicans short on big men at times, so Anderson is seeing 36.1 minutes per contest, much more than he ever has. Anderson is averaging a career-high 21.4 points per game after returning from a chip fracture in a toe on his right foot that cost him the first two weeks of the season. Still, his name has been coming up in Omer Asik trade rumors since the summer, and the latest dispatch links him to the Grizzlies in a proposed swap for Zach Randolph.

The Pelicans don’t appear willing to go along with either deal, indicating that rival teams have much more interest in trading for Anderson than New Orleans has in letting him go. GM Dell Demps committed a four-year, $34MM contract to the 6’10” power forward as part of a sign-and-trade in the summer of 2012, just days after the Pelicans drafted Davis. There has been plenty of skepticism since then about the ability of Anderson and Davis to coexist on the floor, since they both seem to fit best at the four spot.

The pairing shared the floor for just 11.4 minutes per game in contests for which they were both active last season, per NBA.com, and opponents outscored the Pelicans by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Anderson and Davis both in the game. That stat has pulled a 180-degree turn this season. Not counting the Unibrow’s comeback appearance on Tuesday after breaking his hand a few weeks ago, New Orleans has outscored other teams by that same margin of 10.3 points per 100 possessions with the two in the lineup. Anderson has only shared the floor with Davis for a total of 136 minutes over eight games this year thanks to their injuries, but that works out to an average of 17.0 MPG together, a higher rate than last year.

The 6’10” Anderson is a much different player than Davis is, perhaps suggesting their games can complement each other. Anderson led the league in three-pointers made and attempted in 2011/12, when he won the Most Improved Player of the Year award with the Magic. Davis has attempted just six three-pointers in his career, missing all of them. Almost half of Davis’s shot attempts last season came within three feet of the rim, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The Pelicans have been a significantly better defensive team when Anderson has been on the bench the past two seasons, as NBA.com shows, and Davis, drafted as a defensive whiz, is ostensibly around to make up for that.

Coach Monty Williams clearly has some reservations about playing Anderson and Davis together, since it’s not a combination he uses too often. Still, considering the commitment the team has made to both and its reluctance to trade Anderson, it appears as though the plan is for them to share the floor a lot more often. Until the team sees how they mesh in significant minutes together, I’d be surprised if New Orleans traded Anderson. It nonetheless appears there are other clubs that might be high enough on the sharpshooting power forward to make an overwhelming offer to Demps, judging by Anderson’s continued appearance in rumors.

The Pelicans are by no means a finished product, and they have holes at center, unless Williams slots Davis into that position, and small forward. Presuming that Davis returns to the starting lineup at power forward once he’s 100%, that would leave the team with about $20MM tied up in Anderson and Tyreke Evans, both of whom would be reserves. That sort of roster imbalance is difficult to overcome.

Sixers small forward Evan Turner and center Spencer Hawes have been in trade rumors of late, so perhaps there’s a Philadelphia option for the Pelicans. Turner and Hawes are both in contract years, and it might be difficult for Demps to relinquish an asset under team control through 2015/16, as Anderson is, for a pair of soon-to-be free agents. Still, the Pelicans would have the right to match offers for Turner, and they’d have full Bird rights on both players. Hawes, a 43.6% three-point shooter this season, could replace some of Anderson’s floor spacing. The Nuggets, once Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee return from injury, might make sense as a trade partner, too, given their glut of frontcourt players and the possibly expendable Wilson Chandler. Still, such ideas are just my speculation.

The Pelicans are certainly in no hurry to rid themselves a player who’s continually improving, so It will probably take an offer that clearly benefits New Orleans to entice Demps to make a deal. Still, the Pelicans are just 11-13 after beginning the season with aspirations of a playoff spot. If the return of Davis can’t spark a turnaround by the February 20th trade deadline, Demps could have the motivation necessary for him to fix a flawed roster. There’s no guarantee that Anderson would be the centerpiece of any significant discussions the Pelicans might have with other teams, but it seems there would be plenty of executives around the league willing to listen if that were the case.

Trade Candidate: Jason Thompson

December 20th, 2013 at 3:07pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings have been the most active team on the trade market so far this NBA season, having been involved in the only two deals consummated since opening night. Even after acquiring Derrick Williams from the Timberwolves and Rudy Gay from the Raptors, Sacramento may not be done making moves, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the franchise’s tumultuous 2013. After avoiding a move to Seattle, the Kings introduced a new coach, GM, and owner, and the club’s new leadership group is eager to give its loyal fans a winner on the court.

Typically, when a team’s front office undergoes changes, the new general manager and his basketball operations staff look forward to bringing in players they like, which might mean a change of scenery for favorites of the old regime. That’s what happened in Toronto, where new team president Masai Ujiri traded Gay to the Kings just a few months after former GM Bryan Colangelo had acquired him. And it looks like that’s what we’re seeing in Sacramento, where Pete D’Alessandro has already moved several players from the Geoff Petrie era, including pricey veterans John Salmons and Chuck Hayes. Next on the list of Petrie-era players to go may be Jason Thompson. Following the Kings’ trade with the Raptors, a report surfaced suggesting that Thompson was on the trade block.

Coming into the season, power forward looked like a position of depth for the Kings, and a spot where the team potentially had a trade chip or two. After acquiring Patrick Patterson late last season, the team went out and signed Carl Landry to a four-year contract, creating a logjam of power forwards that included Patterson, Landry, Hayes, and Thompson.

Landry suffered a hip injury that figures to keep him sidelined until January or February, and Patterson and Hayes are now Raptors, but even so, Thompson remains expendable. With the Kings employing more small-ball lineups that include Gay or Williams at the four, and Landry eventually on his way back, Thompson likely won’t receive enough playing time for Sacramento to justify paying him an annual salary in the neighborhood of $6MM.

When examining Thompson’s trade value, that contract is an important place to start. In the last two offseasons, only six free agents have signed five-year deals, and that group includes stars like Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Also among that group of six: Thompson, who inked a five-year, $30MM+ contract in July of 2012. While the final year of his deal is only partially guaranteed, he’s currently slated to remain under contract through 2017, which is a lifetime under the league’s new CBA.

Although that long-term contract may make Thompson tricky to trade, his yearly salaries are in the $5-7MM range over the life of the deal, so his price isn’t exorbitant. The 27-year-old’s upside also may be somewhat limited, but for a team that already has solid starters at the four and five, Thompson would make a solid third big man. Throwing out the numbers he’s accumulated in a reduced role and reduced minutes this season, the longtime King has career averages of 10.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG in 27.4 minutes per contest, to go along with 49.9% shooting. He’s also been extremely durable, only playing in fewer than 75 games once, when he appeared in 64 of 66 during the strike-shortened 2011/12 season.

Thompson’s skill-set and agency (CAA) would appeal to the Knicks, who have reportedly inquired. It’s hard not to mention the Rockets when a power forward hits the trade block, but Thompson isn’t quite the sort of stretch four Houston is seeking. Golden State could be a fit, if Marreese Speights continues to struggle, and the Clippers could use another reliable big. I could see the Heat, Nets, and Bobcats kicking the tires as well. And there are another handful of teams that are one frontcourt injury away from potentially having interest in a guy like Thompson.

Still, Thompson’s contract can’t be overlooked, and neither can his slow start this season. While he could be a useful piece on a contender, the former 12th overall pick doesn’t have a ton of trade value at the moment, which means that if the Kings want to a decent asset in return, they may need to pair him with a young player (perhaps Ray McCallum or Quincy Acy) or a future draft pick.

Having already completed a pair of noteworthy deals this season, the Kings likely aren’t done, and Thompson represents one of the team’s most logical remaining trade chips, along with Jimmer Fredette and Marcus Thornton. Despite being on a long-term contract, Thompson doesn’t look to be a part of the long-term plans for the new regime in Sacramento, so if the club can find a way to extract some value for him in a trade, it may benefit everyone involved.

Trade Candidate: Omer Asik

December 7th, 2013 at 4:56pm CST by Chuck Myron

There’s about a week between now and December 15th, the start of a five-day window in which an Omer Asik trade seems as likely as any swap ever is before it’s agreed upon. The Rockets are letting other teams know they’d like to do a deal by December 19th, since that would allow capped-out Houston to package any of the players it acquires for Asik in another swap before the February 20th trade deadline. December 15th is when most players signed this past offseason become eligible to be traded, opening up much greater flexibility for the majority of the league.

If the Rockets wait past December 19th, they could still trade whomever they get for Asik, but they couldn’t send any other players out in the deal, unless they pulled off that second trade at the same time as the Asik deal. It’s another example of Rockets GM Daryl Morey attempting to exploit an arcane rule in the collective bargaining agreement for his team’s benefit. Marc Stein of ESPN.com, who first reported that the Rockets were targeting the 19th, sees it as an attempt to prod rival teams into quickly making their best offers. In any case, it appears that suitors for Asik have a long way to go toward satiating Morey’s demands.

At least one executive from another club sees Houston’s desired return for Asik as “delusional”. Various reports suggest the Rockets are looking for two first-round picks, one first-rounder and a quality young player, a likely lottery pick, a first-rate power forward, or simply a difference-maker of any size. There’s likely a wide range of opinions around the league about Asik, who is a starting-caliber 7’0″ defensive whiz. He’s also an offensively limited player who’s been making weekly trade requests and sitting out games because of his disenchantment with his role as a bench player.

Indeed, there’s usually not nearly so much uproar over a 27-year-old who set a new career high with 10.1 points per game last season. He shot 54.1%, respectable but certainly not dazzling for a player his size, and a whopping 84.2% of his shots came from inside three feet, according to Basketball-Reference. That’s understandable, considering he connected on a woeful 28.7% of all other attempts. His 14.9 PER — about league average — was helped along by his rebounding numbers, as he hauled in 11.7 boards per contest in 2012/13, the third-best mark in the league.

Asik had a drastic defensive impact on the Rockets last season. They gave up 107.2 points per 100 possessions when he wasn’t on the floor, and 101.3 when he was, per NBA.com. That 5.9-point gap is nearly equivalent to the difference between the Pacers, the league’s stingiest team in terms of points per 100 possessions last season, and the Warriors, who finished 13th in that category. He hasn’t put up gaudy shot-blocking numbers, averaging 1.1 blocks in 30.0 minutes per game last season. He’s blocking just 0.8 shots per 36 minutes this year, a career low. He’s nonetheless an intimidating force around the rim, allowing opponents to shoot just 43.2% from point blank range, according to data from the NBA’s SportVU cameras.

That’s better than Dwight Howard, against whom opponents have shot 46.1% at the rim. The Rockets front office believes strongly in analytics, but they’ve already made their choice of centers. Howard’s max deal means he’ll be starting, and since the failure of the team’s experiment with both Howard and Asik in the starting lineup, Asik’s days in Houston have been numbered. Complicating matters is Asik’s backloaded contract, as I explained last month. He’s due a nearly $15MM balloon payment next season, even though his salary cap figure doesn’t reflect that.

Plenty of teams have drawn mention as possible destinations for Asik, like the Pelicans, Celtics and Bulls. None seem as enthusiastic as the Trail Blazers, who’ve reportedly reached out to the Rockets and begun talks. Asik would help solidify Portland, which appears ahead of schedule on its path toward contention. Still, there doesn’t seem to be a logical deal between these teams. The Blazers must convey a first-round pick to the Bobcats sometime between 2014 and 2016, meaning the earliest first-rounder Portland could surrender would be in 2018, thanks to the Stepien Rule. The Blazers have a premiere power forward in LaMarcus Aldridge, but he’s not going to be part of any such deal unless both teams are willing to drastically alter their compositions, which is unlikely to happen. Portland has intriguing young players like Thomas Robinson and C.J. McCollum, but Robinson can’t be traded back to the Rockets this year, so the Blazers probably don’t have enough to get the Rockets to part with Asik.

The most logical trade would see Asik and Pelicans power forward Ryan Anderson switch places, and though that idea has been bandied about since Howard signed with Houston this summer, New Orleans isn’t biting. Other possibilities exist, but Morey may have to resort to a three- or four-team swap to find the kind of return he’s looking for. Thankfully for the Rockets, the GM is no stranger to such deals, having pulled off eight trades involving more than two teams since taking over Houston’s front office in June of 2007. It’s as tough an assignment as any that Morey’s had, especially considering that he must guard against strengthening a competitor now that his team has legitimate title aspirations, unlike years past. Find the right Asik trade, and Morey’s goal of building a championship team in Houston could be complete. Agree to the wrong one, and the Rockets will have cost themselves precious flexibility for a balance sheet clogged with two max players for the foreseeable future.

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