Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate: Rudy Gay

December 27th, 2016 at 5:33pm CST by Luke Adams

In the months leading up to February’s trade deadline, Hoops Rumors will be taking a closer look at several players we consider trade candidates, discussing their value, speculating on potential destinations, and explaining why they are – or should be – available. These players won’t necessarily be dealt in advance of the deadline, but it won’t be surprising if they are.

Rudy Gay, F
Sacramento Kings
2016/17 salary: $13,333,333
$14,263,566 player option for 2017/18
Trade restrictions: None

Even if an NBA player has no intention to re-sign with his current team when he becomes a free agent, he’ll often say all the right things to reporters. When your contract is winding down, it’s easy to say that you’d love to be back with your current team, since that’s what just about everyone says.

With that precedent in mind, Rudy Gay‘s comments in an interview with Sactown Royalty this past July came as a bit of a shock. Rather than repeating the usual sentiments about his coming free agency, Gay bemoaned the lack of stability and consistency in Sacramento, suggesting that he hadn’t had “the kind of communication” that he wanted with the team. At the time, nearly one month into free agency, Gay also didn’t seem too interested in who his teammates for the coming season would be.

“I don’t know,” Gay replied when he was asked about new head coach Dave Joerger and the Kings’ roster. “Honestly, I haven’t paid attention. I don’t even know who our new players are to be honest with you. I’ve just been focused on trying to be healthy and trying to get in shape and get ready for the season, wherever that might be.”

Gay’s ominous “wherever that might be” line was a fairly strong signal that his long-term plan didn’t necessarily include a lengthy stay in Sacramento. But just in case Gay’s motivations weren’t 100% clear, a report surfaced before training camp began in September indicating that the veteran forward had informed the Kings he would opt out of his contract in 2017. Although the Kings still hadn’t shown an inclination to move him at that time, it seemed nearly certain that Gay was planning to sign elsewhere in the summer of ’17.

Gay’s public comments about his future could have created problems in Sacramento, but the team has handled the situation pretty admirably so far. Although trade rumors and speculation persist, Joerger has made the 30-year-old a focal point of the offense, and Gay has responded by being his usual productive self. In 24 games this season, the former eighth overall pick has averaged 18.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 1.5 SPG.

With Gay playing well, and the Kings climbing up the Western Conference standings into a playoff spot, the situation in Sacramento is about to become even more interesting. On one hand, not a whole lot has changed since the summer. Gay still figures to opt out in July, having recently changed agents in anticipation of his free agency. Unless playing for Joerger really appeals to him, the veteran forward will likely explore the market and sign elsewhere. If the Kings want to avoid being left empty-handed if and when he departs, it still makes sense to move him by February’s deadline.

On the other hand though, it has been more than a decade since the Kings were in the postseason, and team ownership badly wants to end that playoff drought. At 14-17, Sacramento hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse, and the team’s grip on the No. 8 seed in the West is precarious. Still, if there’s a chance to participate in a playoff series, the Kings are unlikely to trade one of their top contributors, and Gay has been just that — the team has a +1.9 net rating when he’s on the court, and a -9.2 rating when he’s not.

If Sacramento explores a trade of Gay, there are a few teams that could be fits. According to various reports, the Magic, Thunder, Pacers, and Rockets are among the clubs that have expressed interest and/or spoken to the Kings about Gay.

What exactly would those teams be willing to give up for Gay? Well, the Magic and Rockets are over the cap, so they’d have to send out plenty of salary to take on Gay’s $13MM+ deal. That could mean starting with Jeff Green ($15MM) or Nikola Vucevic ($11.75MM) for Orlando, though I’m not sure the Kings would be eager to add more frontcourt depth. For Houston, Corey Brewer‘s $7.6MM contract could make sense, but the team would have to sweeten the pot with a young player and/or draft picks. Ditto for the Pacers and Monta Ellis ($10.76MM).

The Thunder have room to take on salary, and have reportedly discussed a deal with the Kings that would have included point guard Cameron Payne. Oklahoma City, which could use an offensive player on the wing to help take some of the scoring load off Russell Westbrook, might be the best fit, but a deal centered around Payne wouldn’t make Sacramento a better team this season.

The Kings are in a tricky spot. The worst-case scenario for the team would be to hang onto Gay, miss the playoffs, then lose him in free agency. But even if keeping the veteran forward results in a postseason berth, it’s hard to view that as a big win for the franchise. As the probable No. 8 seed, the Kings would likely be playing for the right to get swept in the first round by the Warriors.

Acquiring a young player like Payne, who is under contract through 2019, would be a much better long-term outcome than losing Gay for nothing. But we don’t know for sure what the entire hypothetical deal with OKC would look like, or if the Thunder are willing to make such a deal. The Kings are unlikely to get a huge haul for Gay, since potential trade partners will have the same concerns about his looming free agency and will be wary of giving up much for him. But Sacramento still should be reluctant to move the UConn product for 50 cents on the dollar.

For now, there’s no rush for Sacramento to make a move. The trade deadline is nearly two months away, and the standings could look much different by that point. If the Kings are six or seven games out of a playoff spot by then, their decision looks simpler — they should try to get what they can for Gay. If they’re still right in the thick of things, the Kings will be more inclined to keep their second-leading scorer and avoid downgrading their current roster.

What do you think? Should the Kings trade or keep Gay? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts and possible trade ideas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Ricky Rubio

December 8th, 2016 at 5:36pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There seems to be an uneasy truce these days between the Timberwolves and their starting point guard. The way that the Timberwolves’ offseason unfolded, it’s somewhat surprising that Ricky Rubio remains their floor leader. It probably won’t be that way much longer, though Rubio has done little to enhance his trade value through the first six weeks of the season.

Once Tom Thibodeau was hired as the head coach and president of basketball operations, Rubio’s exit seemed like a foregone conclusion. Rubio was shopped prior to the draft, as Thibodeau pursued a deal for the Bulls’ Jimmy Butler. One of the reasons that that potential deal fell through was the Chicago wanted Zach LaVine, instead of Rubio, as part of the package.

The Timberwolves wound up with their fallback plan, which was to select the top point guard in the draft to presumably take Rubio’s job. Kris Dunn dropped to the No. 5 spot, which Thibodeau didn’t mind since he was reportedly atop his draft board.

Supposedly, Thibodeau got some offers for Rubio during the summer, but nothing that compelled him to pull the trigger. Eventually, the Timberwolves opted to take a wait-and-see approach, giving Dunn time to acclimate himself to the NBA game while Rubio held the fort as the starter during the early portion of the season.

What’s happened since the season began may not be a worse-case scenario, but it’s pretty close. First, Rubio missed five games with an elbow injury. Upon returning, his play has been substandard while the Timberwolves, who were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Western Conference, have floundered.

His shooting, never his strong suit anyway, has been woeful. He’s made 34.5% of his field-goal attempts and 22.9% of his 3-point tries. His assists are down to an average of 6.7 per game over 30.6 minutes, though his turnover numbers (1.9) remain respectable. His current 12.1 PER is well below the league average of 15.0.

By comparison, Rubio has averaged at least 8.6 assists per game the past three seasons while playing a comparable amount of minutes.

Perhaps the only reason why Rubio has kept his starting position is that Dunn struggled in the early going himself, though that appears to be changing. According to Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Dunn’s shot looked as good as it has all season on Tuesday, when he made all but one of his field-goal attempts and scored 15 points against the Spurs. Moreover, as Souhan noted, Rubio is the picture of frustration these days whose veteran leadership is being outweighed by his lack of production.

The pairing of Dunn and talented combo guard LaVine as the starting backcourt will probably happen soon. Minnesota also has another recent first-round pick, Tyus Jones, in line to take an expanded reserve role. The only reason to delay the inevitable at this point would be hope Rubio gets into a better groove, which would make it easier to move him.

Rubio’s contract, given the rise in salaries to coincidence with jump in the salary cap, is reasonable. He’s making $13.55MM this season and has two guaranteed years remaining at $14.25MM and $14.95MM, respectively. If another team views Rubio as an upgrade to their current point guard situation, those figures are certainly not prohibitive.

So which teams out there might want a flashy if offensively-challenged point man who at 26 years old should be in his prime? The Kings were reportedly one of his pursuers this summer and their point situation hasn’t improved. Darren Collison is averaging 4.7 assists, compared to 2.2 turnovers, and journeyman Ty Lawson is also getting steady playing time. Sacramento is overloaded with young bigs on its roster and has also been trying to move small forward Rudy Gay, who can become an unrestricted free agent after the season if he opts out.

Which other teams might be a match for Rubio? The Nets, who lead the league in having offer sheets to restricted free agents matched, have been looking to upgrade their roster. Current starter Jeremy Lin has been injured and seems like a short-term fix, anyway, with rookie Isaiah Whitehead behind him.

The suddenly woebegone Mavericks could seek a younger replacement to Deron Williams and the Pelicans might consider such a move, considering Jrue Holiday is oft-injured and heading into the free agent market this summer.

The Sixers, with Sergio Rodriguez currently running the show, could use a heady point guard to feed the ball to their stable of bigs. Another intriguing option might be the Spurs, taking into account Tony Parker‘s mileage and recent injury history. The Hawks chose to hand the controls of their attack to Dennis Schroder but with an offense currently ranked No. 27 in efficiency, they might rethink that plan.

Minnesota could also wait on a contender that suffers a point guard injury — the Grizzlies and Mike Conley already fit that category, though they’re paying Conley way too much to take on a salary like Rubio’s as a fill-in at the same position.

Rubio is undoubtedly a better player than he’s shown this season. In his last two full seasons — he was injured most of the 2014/15 campaign — he had a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 2.3 each time. That translates to approximately six wins per season over a replacement player. Rubio is not only one of the league’s most prolific distributors, he’s typically near the top of the steals categories, generating a couple of easy baskets per game for his club.

What’s apparent is that Rubio is not the long-term starter for Minnesota. By drafting Dunn in the lottery, the Timberwolves basically told Rubio that he was just a placeholder for their preferred option at the point. If Rubio is still wearing their uniform by the end of the season, it will speak more toward his declining trade value than their reluctance to give him a fresh start.

What do you think? Should the Timberwolves trade or keep Rubio? Which team would be the best fit for Rubio? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts and possible trade ideas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Nerlens Noel

December 2nd, 2016 at 11:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the 2016 offseason began, trade rumors have surrounded Sixers centers Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, and while those rumblings grew awfully loud around the time of the draft, both Noel and Okafor remain in Philadelphia. The team’s inactivity surprised many observers, including Noel, who kicked off training camp in September by calling the Sixers’ logjam at center “silly” and suggesting that something “needs to happen” to resolve the situation.

“I feel like it definitely needs to be figured out,” Noel said at the time. “I think at the end of the day, again, you have three starting-caliber centers (Noel, Okafor, and Joel Embiid). And it’s just not going to work to anybody’s advantage having that on the same team. That’s how I’m looking at it. I’m not opposed to anything, but things need to be situated.”

The Sixers’ logjam sorted itself out during the first several weeks of the season, as Noel was sidelined after undergoing to a knee procedure, and Embiid and Okafor were on minutes limits due to injury concerns of their own. However, Okafor’s minutes limit has been lifted, Embiid’s has been increased, and Noel appears close to returning to the lineup. With Embiid thriving in his first healthy season, and Noel ready to make his season debut, the 76ers’ frontcourt is more crowded than ever. That fact wasn’t lost on Noel, as Marc Narducci of Philly.com detailed this week.

Noel’s public griping about the situation in Philadelphia so far has been somewhat subdued — it’s not as if he’s come out and demanded that the Sixers move him. Still, ESPN’s Marc Stein recently suggested that the big man would “prefer to be shipped to a new address,” and Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders has heard similar whispers.

According to Kyler, all indications are that Noel wants to be traded this season, and the Sixers will do everything they can to accommodate that (Twitter links). If all things were equal, Philadelphia may have a tough call on which player to trade between Noel and Okafor, but Noel “does not want to be there” and would like to have his own situation somewhere, according to Kyler (Twitter links). The only problem? The former sixth overall pick doesn’t currently have a ton of trade value, per Kyler (Twitter link).

At age 22, Noel is still young and has plenty of promise. Last season, in 67 games for the Sixers, he averaged a solid 11.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.8 SPG, and 1.5 BPG, shooting 52.1% from the floor. Still, there are a few reasons potential suitors will be wary of giving up a whole lot of value to land Noel.

First and foremost, Noel’s injury history is a concern. A torn ACL wiped out his entire NBA rookie season, and another knee injury has kept him out of action so far this season. While the former Kentucky Wildcat doesn’t as extensive a history of health problems as his teammate Embiid, clubs will want to see him get back on the floor this season to make sure he looks 100% before anything happens on the trade front.

When Noel does get back on the court, teams will keep an eye on his continued development at both ends of the floor. Known for his defense, rebounding, and rim-protecting ability, Noel has the potential to be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in his prime, and that type of player remains very valuable in today’s NBA. On the other end of the floor though, his offensive game is extremely limited. It’s worth watching to see if he shows improvement on offense, but possible trade partners for the Sixers will have to take Noel’s current limitations into account.

Finally, Noel’s contract situation will play a big part in upcoming trade talks. On one hand, a young player still on his rookie contract has plenty of appeal — any team conscious of cutting costs will love that Noel is only earning about $4.384MM this season. Since he’s in the fourth and final year of his rookie deal though, Noel is about to get much more expensive. Eligible for restricted free agency in July, Noel could command an annual salary exceeding $20MM on a new deal, given the free agent prices we saw this past summer for older centers with less upside such as Timofey Mozgov and Ian Mahinmi.

Noel’s looming free agency makes it tricky for certain teams to construct a deal that makes sense. The Trail Blazers, for instance, could use a big man with Noel’s skill set, and the Sixers’ ability to take on some extra salary would benefit Portland in the short term. But could the Blazers afford to extend Noel next summer, considering the club already has nearly $130MM in guaranteed money on its books for 2017/18? Sending a big contract or two to the Sixers would help reduce that number, but an extension for Noel would likely put the franchise right back in tax territory.

Teams like the Raptors and Warriors would be in the same boat as Portland, facing financial challenges when it comes to extending Noel, but both teams would be solid fits for the young big. Toronto could offer a package that includes Terrence Ross, while Golden State could perhaps offer Ian Clark, Kevon Looney, and/or draft picks.

Of course, the Celtics have long been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Noel, and Boston could use a shot-blocker in the middle. Despite the C’s wealth of assets though, GM Danny Ainge may be reluctant to part with some of them for Noel until he determines whether he needs to hang onto all of them to pull off a bigger trade for a star. If no star-level player is available, perhaps the C’s get more serious about someone line Noel. The Sixers would likely target a guard such as Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart.

One intriguing potential trade partner for Philadelphia is the Suns. Phoenix has the cap flexibility to comfortably afford a long-term contract for Noel, and the team has a crowded backcourt at the moment, with starters Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker pushing Brandon Knight to the bench. It’s not clear if the Sixers would have interest in Knight, but he’s under contract through 2019/20 at a reasonable rate ($14.125MM per year) and could provide the sort of backcourt scoring punch Philadelphia has been lacking.

Ultimately, Noel is right that the Sixers’ logjam at center is untenable, and with his contract set to expire at season’s end, Philadelphia will likely have to move him by the deadline to recoup some value for him. Even if the team only gets 50 cents on the dollar, that’s a better outcome than losing Noel for nothing next summer, since it doesn’t appear as if he has a long-term future in Philadelphia.

What do you think? Should the Sixers trade or keep Noel? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts and possible trade ideas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

And-Ones: Lue, Anderson, Burks, Luwawu

February 15th, 2016 at 2:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Five NBA head coaches have been fired since the start of the season, and a sixth, George Karl, nearly was. That’s left a skittish environment in coaching circles, as Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post examines.

“I think maybe the owners are running out of patience,” said Tyronn Lue, who took over the Cavs from the fired David Blatt. “I’m not sure. Just talking to the guys, it’s good to get a long-term deal, because you never know what’s going to happen in this league. In our situation alone, we’re number one in the East and we got to the NBA finals last year, and then something like this unfortunately happens. I think you just have to continue to see improvement every year. A lot of times, I know ownership, they get anxious, and they probably think they’re better than what they really are. So that tends to play a part in it.

Lue reportedly signed a three-year deal when he took the head coaching job in Cleveland, though GM David Griffin denied it. See more from around the NBA with the trade deadline precisely 72 hours away:

Ryan Anderson is anxious to explore free agency this summer, so he’d only be a rental for any team that might acquire him at the trade deadline, a source told Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Conflicting reports paint a confusing picture of the likelihood that Anderson will end up in a trade, though more of them indicate that he’s not the likeliest trade candidate on the Pelicans than the other way around.
Alec Burks is progressing well in his recovery from a fractured left fibula and the general expectation is that the Jazz shooting guard will return to action in March, tweets Jody Genessy of The Deseret News. That’s nonetheless slightly behind the eight-week timetable reported in late December.
Draft prospect Timothe Luwawu of the Serbian club Mega Leks is an all-around swingman with a rapidly emerging 3-point game, strong passing and intriguing defensive skill who must improve his ball-handling and willingness to finish inside and overcome his occasional mental lapses on the floor, observes Jonathan Givony of The Vertical on Yahoo Sports. Luwawu is Givony’s 15th-rated prospect for this year.

Trade Candidate: Eric Gordon

February 8th, 2016 at 9:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

Will the Pelicans be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? Do they still view themselves as playoff contenders? And which of their available assets is most likely to be dealt away?

Derick E. Hingle / USA Today Sports Images

All these questions will take a back seat to Mardi Gras on Tuesday in New Orleans, but they will become important soon afterward. With the trade deadline looming on February 18th, the Pelicans have reportedly had talks about trading at least four prominent players.

Of the Pelicans’ potential trade assets, shooting guard Eric Gordon is the riskiest. The risk comes from a broken ring finger that he suffered in a January 19th game and from his looming free agency. With his recovery timetable set at four to six weeks, a team that acquires Gordon may not have him on the court until early March. And when free agency hits in July, Gordon will no doubt seek a hefty raise from the more than $15.5MM he is making now. So any team that deals for him will have to be confident he will sign for the long term.

The eighth-year shooting guard out of Indiana had a chance to enter free agency last summer but chose to exercise his option and spend another year in New Orleans. At the time, he cited the Pelicans’ talent level and an offseason coaching change that saw Monty Williams let go in favor of Alvin Gentry, who carried the promise of a faster-paced offense.

Gordon has been a productive but frequently injured player during his five seasons in New Orleans. The broken finger is the latest in a series of mishaps that have limited his availability since the Pelicans acquired him from the Clippers in the December 2011 trade that sent Chris Paul to Los Angeles. Gordon missed 136 games during his first four seasons in New Orleans, and that number continues to rise with his current injury.

The 27-year-old has been an effective scorer since he arrived in New Orleans, averaging 17.0 points and 3.7 assists per game. He is fourth on the team this season at 15.0 points a night and was eighth in the league with 98 3-pointers when he fractured his finger. Still, it’s not clear how vital he is to the Pelicans’ success. The team recently won seven of nine games with him on the sidelines to sneak back into playoff contention, and his overall numbers suggest his value isn’t as high as it seems. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus ratings currently put Gordon 40th among the league’s shooting guards, up slightly from 43rd a year ago when he had the benefit of being part of a playoff team. Gordon fares a little better in ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating, but he still comes in just 24th among shooting guards.

Those numbers, along with Gordon’s contract situation, make it easy to understand why New Orleans seems more inclined to move him rather than stretch forward Ryan Anderson or point guard Tyreke Evans, whom the team also reportedly explored trading. Like Gordon, Anderson is on an expiring contract, while Evans has one year left on his deal at $11.7MM. In addition, the Pelicans would probably love to find a trade partner to take center Omer Asik off their hands, but the five-year, nearly $53MM deal he signed last offseason makes that problematic.

New Orleans reportedly tried to deal Gordon in January, offering him and Alonzo Gee to the Kings in exchange for Rudy Gay. It’s not known if negotiations between those teams are continuing, but John Reid of The New Orleans Times-Picayune recently wrote that the Pelicans are still seeking a trade that would involve Gordon. No other interested teams have emerged publicly, as Gordon’s salary will necessitate a significant return. Only the Trail Blazers have enough cap room available to take on Gordon without worrying about the salary-matching rules, and Portland is already set at shooting guard with C.J. McCollum enjoying a breakout season.

It could be a buyer’s market for teams hoping to obtain perimeter scoring before the deadline, so the Pelicans may not get as much as they want in return for Gordon. The Wolves have put Kevin Martin on the market, as Chuck Myron examined last month. Also, the Nets’ Joe Johnson is expensive but presumed available, the Grizzlies are gauging interest in Courtney Lee and the Lakers are willing to listen to offers for virtually all of their veterans, including Lou Williams and Nick Young. Other possibilities from underperforming teams include the Bucks’ O.J. Mayo and the Magic’s Evan Fournier.

Gordon’s future in New Orleans will come down to how strongly the Pelicans want to move him and what they’re willing to accept in return. Any potential trading partner probably views Gordon as a risky investment and is unlikely to give the Pelicans enough to help them make another late-season push for the playoffs. However, if New Orleans has decided to focus on the future, the front office can probably find a contender that would be eager to add an instant-offense player like Gordon at a bargain price.

Do you think the Pelicans will make a deal involving Gordon before the February 18th deadline? Please share your opinion in the comments section.

Trade Candidate: Roy Hibbert

February 8th, 2016 at 2:06pm CST by Chuck Myron

Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today Sports Images

Roy Hibbert was perhaps the NBA’s most renowned defensive player not that long ago. His exploitation of the NBA’s rule allowing defenders to avoid foul calls if they jump straight up, regardless of whether contact occurs, allowed him to become a fearsome rim-protector and the anchor of Pacers teams that seriously threatened the hegemony of LeBron James in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers took the Heat to a seventh game in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals, and Hibbert, who’d averaged 2.6 blocks per game that season and 17.0 points per game in the playoffs, looked as though he’d fully justified the four-year contract worth more than $58MM that he’d signed with the Pacers the previous summer.

That’s all a memory now with Hibbert in trade rumors for the second time since the end of last season. The Lakers’ experiment with the two-time All-Star hasn’t worked out. The team gives up 6.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor compared to when he’s not, according to NBA.com. It’s a stat that doesn’t account for the rest of the players he shares the court with, but the margin is wide enough to be instructive. His 2.0 Basketball-Reference Defensive Box Plus Minus rating is his lowest in the past six seasons. Most damning of all is his position as only the 30th-best center in ESPN Defensive Real Plus Minus, where he’s only marginally ahead of Jordan Hill, the undersized big man whom the Lakers let go and whom the Pacers signed a free agent to take some of the minutes that used to go to Hibbert.

It’s puzzling why Hibbert, who’s only 29, simply isn’t the player he used to be. He’s been remarkably durable, having missed only a dozen games since the start of the 2009/10 season before his absence from Monday’s game with a sprained ankle. Perhaps it’s a matter of confidence or mental approach. Hibbert hired a sports psychologist this past summer, though the move evidently hasn’t helped his on-court performance.

Whatever it is, Hibbert’s value clearly isn’t what it used to be. Just what he’ll be able to command on the free agent market this summer, when the soaring cap creates a player-friendly environment for Hibbert and agent David Falk, is a question of its own, but his trade value certainly isn’t high. The Lakers merely had to give up an unprotected 2019 second-round pick when they traded with the Pacers to obtain Hibbert this past summer, though reason exists to believe that was a below-market price. Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird and coach Frank Vogel made no secret of the team’s desire to move on from Hibbert in their end-of-season remarks last year, perhaps hurting the team’s bargaining position. Lakers executive VP of basketball operations Jim Buss said that the trade was prearranged before the marquee free agent big men were off the table this summer, so it’s worth wondering if the Pacers would have been able to extract a greater ransom had they waited until starting centers were in greater demand. The Mavs reportedly had interest in Hibbert as a fallback option before DeAndre Jordan‘s temporary commitment to Dallas. For what it’s worth, reports of the Lakers-Pacers trade agreement emerged the day after word of Jordan’s deal with the Mavs did, so the Dallas option likely wasn’t there when the Hibbert swap went down.

What matters now is that the Lakers have reportedly made him available on the trade market and have been trying to see if any playoff-bound teams would be willing takers. It’s unclear what the Lakers would want in return, but any trade involving Hibbert would be a tricky proposition. His salary of more than $15.592MM makes it so. No team, not even the Cavs with their more than $10.5MM trade exception, can absorb him without sending a matching salary back to the Lakers in return, save for the Trail Blazers, who have about $20MM in cap space.

One of Neil Olshey‘s first moves when he became the Portland GM in 2012 was reportedly to propose a max offer to Hibbert, prompting Indiana to sign him for the same terms. Times have clearly changed for both Hibbert and the Trail Blazers, but if Portland, which coincidentally now holds that same 2019 second-rounder the Lakers gave up for Hibbert, were to trade it back to L.A., it would be a relatively low-risk proposition for the Blazers. Portland could see if a revived Hibbert would be able to help the team in its scramble for one of the last playoff spots in the Western Conference, and if not, the Blazers could simply cut ties in the offseason, having done nothing to impinge upon their cap flexibility for the summer. Olshey will no doubt hear other proposals for his team’s giant chunk of cap space between now and the deadline, but Hibbert would seem like a viable option.

Conversely, the Lakers appear to have few alternatives. The Celtics could use a rim-protector, and they’re reportedly working to trade David Lee, whose salary of almost $15.493MM would be a nearly identical match for Hibbert’s. Both are on expiring contracts. However, it’s probably a stretch to think the Lakers would find more value in Lee, who’s fallen out of the rotation for his teams in back-to-back seasons, than they would in Hibbert, who has been the starter for the Lakers all year in spite of his decline. Dallas didn’t wind up with Jordan or Hibbert, their apparent fallback option, and while Zaza Pachulia, the center the Mavs ultimately wound up with, has been a revelation this season, he’s no intimidator in the paint, averaging only 0.3 blocks per game. However, it would be virtually impossible for the Mavs to come up with enough salary to land Hibbert without trading Pachulia and Deron Williams or gutting their core, and Hibbert doesn’t appear to be worth that at this stage of his career.

The Magic don’t have a rim-protector and could use a jolt to stay in contention for a playoff spot, but they’re short on expiring contracts, so the Lakers would have to compromise their cap flexibility going forward to make a reasonable Hibbert trade with Orlando. It’s not as if the Lakers don’t have room to burn, since they only have about $23MM in guaranteed salary for next season, but unless the Magic would be willing to send out some of their intriguing young talent, the Lakers would probably take a pass.

It’s easy for the Lakers to conclude that Hibbert isn’t the long-term answer at starting center, but it would be difficult for the team to gain any assets through an early end to his one-year trial run in that role. Hibbert has expressed frustration with all the losing the 11-42 Lakers have done this season after having been on Pacers teams that were almost always in the playoffs, so it’s conceivable that he’d become a buyout candidate if he remains in purple-and-gold past the deadline. That would give the Lakers reason to hold off on any deal that would represent a net loss either financially or in terms of on-court performance, knowing Hibbert could perhaps be talked into giving back some of his salary in exchange for his release. However, Hibbert said recently that he’s loved his experience with the Lakers so far, according to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. In any case, few signs point to Hibbert sticking around. The question is whether he’s gone by the trade deadline, the buyout deadline, or July free agency.

What’s a trade involving Hibbert that would benefit both the Lakers and another team? Leave a comment to share your idea.

Trade Candidate: Rudy Gay

February 1st, 2016 at 7:44pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Kyle Terada / USA Today Sports Images

Rudy Gay has played in the NBA since the 2006/07 season and posted steady numbers throughout his career. He still tends to leave his coaches and home fans exasperated, wondering why his multi-dimensional skills fail to translate into greater production. So it’s not surprising that Gay is apparently on the trading block for the third time in four years.

Scan the basic numbers and Gay ranks as one of the league’s top small forwards. Virtually any team would be satisfied with a player who averages 18.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals in 35.8 minutes — his career numbers.

Gay averaged a career-high 21.1 points and 3.7 assists last season, as he took a larger offensive role for a Kings team that struggled to find a consistent point guard. The acquisition of Rajon Rondo, the league’s assists leader, has led to a dip in Gay’s numbers (18.0 points, 1.7 assists) but he’s pulling down more rebounds (6.9 compared to 5.9 a year ago) as he switches back and forth between the forward spots.

In terms of ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating, Gay is having another solid season. He ranks 10th among small forwards at 16.69. That’s down from his career best 19.46 PER last season and the 18.40 he posted in 2013-14 but still well above the league average of 15.0.

Basketball Reference’s Offensive and Defensive Box Plus/Minus ratings provide a different perspective on Gay’s effectiveness. His OBPM is 0.3, while his DBPM is 0.0 — the epitome of average. Gay earned a career-best 2.8 OBPM last season but that figure was twice as high as any of his other seasons. For his career, Gay averages a 0.5 OBPM and a 0.1 DBPM, evidence for his critics that he’s not as good as his basic numbers would suggest.

Gay doesn’t provide much of a 3-point threat, averaging one make per game while shooting 34.3% from long range. He also has a tendency to miss games with nagging injuries — he hasn’t played more than 75 games since the 2009/10 season.

As Kings beat writer Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee recently pointed out, much has changed since the Kings made him virtually untouchable in trade talks last season. He has struggled to fit into coach George Karl‘s system, Jones noted, while the team has concerns about its depth at the two-guard spot.

Any team acquiring Gay would have to view him as its starter through next season, if not 2017/18 as well, because of his contract status. He signed a three-year extension in November 2014 and is making $12.4MM this season. He’s guaranteed approximately $13.33MM next season and holds a player option for $14.26MM for the following season.

Sacramento is seeking a quality young player, or a rotation player with at least one year left on his contract, in any trade involving Gay, according to ESPN.com’s Marc Stein.

In January, Gay was linked in trade rumors to two other Western Conference teams, the Pelicans and Kings. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported that Sacramento refused New Orleans’ offer of shooting guard Eric Gordon and small forward Alonzo Gee.

Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops reported earlier that the Kings wanted to trade Gay for power forward Ryan Anderson, an unrestricted free agent after this season, but the Pelicans wouldn’t bite. The offer involving Gordon, who is also an unrestricted free agent after the season, came prior to the finger fracture he suffered that will keep him out of action for four to six weeks.

While an intriguing possibility for the Pelicans, who are trying to climb back into the playoff race, the potential acquisition of Gay would negatively impact the team’s cap space, as Justin Verrier of ESPN.com recently wrote. It remains to be seen whether the Pelicans will be buyers or sellers in this market, given their current record, and taking Gay’s contract would be a significant commitment.

Grizzlies beat writer Ronald Tillery of The Memphis Commerical Appeal recently suggested that the club could improve its current roster and future outlook by reacquiring the player it traded away to the Raptors midway through the 2013/14 season. Tillery opined that Gay would bring scoring, versatility and tough defense to the perennial playoff team. Pure speculation on my part but that proposal would probably have to include one or both of their impending free agent wings, Jeff Green (making $9.45MM in his walk year) and Courtney Lee (5.675MM).

Gay has also been linked in the past to the Bulls and Clippers and, given their current injury issues, it’s not a big stretch to see a match with either of those teams. The Clippers have a hole at small forward and Gay could also play the power forward spot with Blake Griffin on the mend from a broken hand.

The Bulls’ frontcourt depth has taken some hits with the season-ending loss of Joakim Noah, along with Nikola Mirotic‘s appendectomy that will keep him out through the All-Star break. Pairing up Gay with Jimmy Butler would give the Bulls one of the strongest 1-2 punches at the wing spots in the league.

There are some strong arguments for the Kings to retain Gay. They have moved into the playoff picture and may not want to interrupt their chemistry with a big trade. They would also need a wing player or two to justify the trade, since Gay’s backup Omri Casspi has defensive limitations and, as previously pointed out, the Kings could use an upgrade at shooting guard.

As James Ham of CSNBayArea.com recently reported, Gay also has a strong relationship with DeMarcus Cousins and Rondo. He was one of the principal players in recruiting Rondo as a free agent last summer.

Add all the factors together and there’s undoubtedly more trade rumors involving Gay to come this month. It’s unclear, though, whether the Kings will actually shake up their starting lineup and take that big step.

Do you think the Kings will trade Gay before this month’s deadline? Leave a comment to weigh in.

Trade Candidate: David Lee

January 31st, 2016 at 11:55am CST by ChrisCrouse

Not receiving minutes on a championship contender is one thing, but being removed from the rotation on a team that’s meandering through the middle of the Eastern Conference is another. “I told [coach Brad Stevens] while I disagree with [being taken out of the rotation],” David Lee said earlier in the month, “I also told him he’s the coach and can choose to do that.” Lee has only played in two games since the start of 2016, tallying a total of 25 minutes, and Boston has gone 9-7 over that stretch. The power forward remains supportive of Stevens and he hasn’t requested a trade, though doing so may not get him anywhere as the Celtics have been open to moving him for quite some time.

Dec 9, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics forward David Lee (42) makes the basket against Chicago Bulls center Pau Gasol (16) in the second half at TD Garden. Celtics defeated the Bulls 105-100. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

David Butler II / USA TODAY Sports Images

The demand just isn’t there. The power forward position is evolving, as Dana Gauruder of Hoops Rumors mentioned in his Taj Gibson Trade Candidate piece earlier this month. Ideally, teams want power forwards to possess the lateral quickness that allows them to slide over and defend a small forward when opposing squads play small ball. According to this new prototype, big men should have the ability to switch onto smaller players in pick-and-roll defense and not appear overexposed when a speedier guard is attempting to drive past them. Throw in the ability to make 3-pointers and you have a player that fits the stretch-four model that’s been parroted by executives and sportswriters alike over the last few seasons. That player will certainly demand the attention of nearly every team in league on the trade market. Lee is not that player.

The University of Florida product plays an old man’s game, but he isn’t unplayable at this point in his career. For Boston, he’s the equivalent of that awkward piece of living room furniture you’ve acquired for basically nothing, thinking that it’ll be useful, but in reality you just have too many fixtures and not enough square footage for it all to work. That’s Stevens’ dilemma. He has too many pieces, and with Jared Sullinger’s surprisingly masterful defense, Amir Johnson’s sheer goodness and Kelly Olynyk showing promise, spare minutes are hard to find. Account for the stretches with either Jonas Jerebko or Tyler Zeller, who was a candidate for an extension this past fall but let the deadline pass without reaching an agreement with the team, and you’re watching a solid, deep rotation in the frontcourt. Lee is watching the same thing from the bench.

Lee was playing 15.9 minutes per game through the last week of December and his 15.8 player efficiency rating would indicate that he was doing just fine. However, it was becoming apparent that finishing at the rim was becoming a problem. Getting airborne was never a staple in Lee’s game, but his lack of hops compounded the issue. He made 49.6% of his shots within 5 feet of the hoop this season and of the shots he missed, 40% were blocked, according to NBA.com. Lee can’t shoot the 3-ball, making only one in 29 career attempts. Stevens has tinkered with positioning Lee outside the paint in an attempt to manufacture spacing. It hasn’t really worked. The big man is making just over 29% of his shots outside the paint, which is below the league average from any given area within the arc, per Statmuse. Stevens’ pace-and-space system has led Lee to a career high 4.1 assists per 36 minutes, but his 2.9 turnovers per 36 minutes are a career worst. All that being said, Lee is still doing a few things well. His points and rebounds per 36 minutes are hovering around his career averages of 16.8 and 10.8, respectively, and his free throw percentage this year is slightly above his 77.5% career mark. There seems to be enough left in Lee’s tank to be a productive reserve, though Boston may not be the place for him to prove it.

Lee’s salary, which is slightly under $15.5MM, limits his suitors. Lee’s skills would be welcomed in Miami, considering the team’s underwhelming backup big men, but absorbing Lee’s salary would likely mean giving up Luol Deng and offloading other salary to avoid the tax. The Duke product hasn’t been spectacular this season, but the Heat’s need for wings exceeds its need for a third big. The Clippers have a glaring need at power forward after trading away Josh Smith and watching Blake Griffin hit the sideline with a broken hand. Yet, making a reasonable, salary-aligning trade for Lee would mean sending out Jamal Crawford and Lance Stephenson, which is something that doesn’t really make sense for either party. The Raptors could use a four, but they’re likely probably looking for a defensive minded big to pair with newly-extended Jonas Valanciunas, given the Lithuanian’s struggles on that side of the ball. The Lakers would like to move Roy Hibbert and the center’s $15.5MM salary would allow for a swap of the two big men. However, the Lakers are likely looking to gain an asset back in any Hibbert trade, considering they gave up a second-rounder to acquire him just months ago. Although the Celtics have the picks to propose such a deal, swapping Hibbert for Lee would be exchanging one massive human being on the bench for another, as Hibbert likely wouldn’t crack the rotation in Boston.

The Hawks want to compete with the Cavs for the Eastern Conference crown, and if they are going to come out on top after tussling with the likes of Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, they will need to improve their rebounding totals, as the Wizards are the only team pulling down fewer rebounds per game than they are. Atlanta is struggling on offense this season, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors detailed in his Jeff Teague Trade Candidate piece. Though Lee would help improve the team in both those areas, it’s hard to construct a trade for Atlanta that makes sense. Tiago Splitter could be the main piece in a Lee-centered deal, though coach Mike Budenholzer is a fan of the center going back to his days with San Antonio, and Splitter, who’s on a contract that has just one year remaining after this one at $8.25MM, probably doesn’t move the needle for Boston.

If Lee ends up changing teams via trade, it’s more likely that he is part of a larger deal. Short of a true franchise player, Boston’s biggest need is a go-to scorer. The Celtics’ last 10 losses have all been by single digits and nearly all of the losses were a result of the offense running stagnant near the end of the game. Kevin Love would have been a nice weapon for Stevens to utilize over that stretch. The Love trade speculation should continue over the next few weeks, given that three of Cleveland’s four best players, including Love, are arguably best suited to play the four. The Cavs’ biggest need is a small forward who can guard the opposition’s best wing and take some of the burden off LeBron James. Jae Crowder fits the bill. The Marquette product won’t be mistaken for a true No.1 option, but he has blossomed into a nice two-way player this season, turning his five-year, $35MM contact into a steal in the process. A package of Crowder, Lee and a future first-round pick or two isn’t tantamount to Andrew Wiggins. Cleveland simply isn’t getting that type of prospect back for Love. Still, it’s a proposal the Cavs should investigate. Bringing in Crowder adds a legitimate contributor to the roster and it would help reduce the team’s near record-setting tax bill starting next season.

That kind of deal would be a home run for Boston, though, as Myron noted in a recent chat, it’s doubtful that the Cavs move Love before the end of the season. There are other scenarios wherein Lee could be a piece of a package, such as a deal for Joe Johnson that sends out Lee, Jerebko and Evan Turner. Johnson wouldn’t excite the fan base in the same way a Love or Gordon Hayward acquisition would, but a player of Johnson’s caliber is an easier catch.

Adding a go-to scorer or finding an upgrade to give Turner’s minutes to without sacrificing future flexibility should be Boston’s main objectives this trade season. It’ll be hard to accomplish either aim or net anything useful this season for Lee alone. A larger trade is a possibility. More likely, president of basketball operations Danny Ainge keeps an eye on the market, perhaps netting a second-rounder from some team that would like to swap high-salary players. Ainge could also simply invite Lee to the table to start negotiations on a buyout agreement. Lee the free agent will definitely have more suitors than Lee the trade target, but until a buyout is agreed upon or an injury to someone in Boston’s rotation occurs, the 32-year-old likely won’t see much court time.

Trade Candidate: Timofey Mozgov

January 29th, 2016 at 3:30pm CST by Chuck Myron

Tim Fuller / USA TODAY Sports Images

Few teams have ever wanted a non-superstar as much as the Cavs seemed to want Timofey Mozgov in the months leading up to the January 2015 trade that brought him to Cleveland. The 7’1″ center who had started only 30 of the 82 games he played the season before in Denver was the clear-cut top target for the Cavs after they traded for Kevin Love in August 2014. The Nuggets wisely held out until they could extract an eye-popping return of two first-round picks, one from the Grizzlies that the Cavs had long ago acquired and one from the Thunder that Cleveland had just received for trading Dion Waiters two days prior. The surrender of that ransom for a player who’d never averaged more than 9.4 points per game nonetheless thrilled LeBron James, as Joe Vardon of the Northeast Ohio Media Group reported at the time, and a week after the trade, the Cavs embarked on a 48-12 tear that didn’t end until the Warriors won the last three games of the finals.

So, it’s jarring to see that the Cavaliers have begun to explore the market for a trade that would send Mozgov out, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported earlier this month. It’s been a rocky season for 29-year-old in the final year of his contract, to be sure. He still hasn’t found his bearings after a July 1st surgery on his right knee, and just about every stat of his is down from the numbers he put up last season in 46 games following the trade. He’s been in and out of the starting lineup, and most recently, he’s been out, with new coach Tyronn Lue preferring Tristan Thompson at center.

Still, it’s tough to reckon with the idea that the Cavs would be willing to give up on a player they so clearly wanted and were so elated to acquire, and whose addition to the lineup seemed so transformative just a year ago. They apparently had recent talks with the Pelicans, though those didn’t go anywhere, Wojnarowski reported this week. The Cavs would like a three-and-D wing player who can back up Iman Shumpert, fearing he’ll go down to another injury, as Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group and the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported. Proficient three-and-D types aren’t easy to find, so if the Cavs have designs on turning Mozgov into that sort of player, they’d have to find a team that strongly believes Mozgov can return to the form he exhibited in the second half of last season, and that wouldn’t fear Mozgov bolting in free agency this summer.

Wojnarowski suggested this month that Mozgov would appeal to Western Conference contenders, and that makes sense, since they’d ostensibly have fewer concerns about Mozgov signing elsewhere, and a deal between teams in opposite conferences wouldn’t have as much chance of coming back to haunt either side in the playoffs. The Warriors and Spurs seem like unlikely candidates to make any sort of significant move, given how well they’ve played. Perhaps the Clippers, down a big man in the absence of Blake Griffin, would bite. Wesley Johnson, a career 34.7% 3-point shooter with a 7’1″ wingspan, could be the sort of backup wing player the Cavaliers are looking for, but Mozgov and DeAndre Jordan would be an awkward fit.

The Grizzlies are reportedly gauging the market for Courtney Lee, who’s been on a tear from behind the arc the past two months, and perhaps they’d like to double down on grint-and-grind with yet another big man, especially with Brandan Wright still unavailable because of injury. However, Memphis would surely be loath to give up a 3-point shooter without getting one in return. Trevor Ariza fits the three-and-D profile, but unless the Rockets have serious concerns about Dwight Howard, it’s tough to see them giving up their starting small forward for Mozgov. The Mavs appear true long shots, since they seem to have found their center in Zaza Pachulia and are light on wing players.

The Cavs might be better served looking within their own conference at the Bucks, a team that could use a rim-protecting presence with Greg Monroe around and that has no shortage of intriguing options on the wing. Still, unless the Cavs have interest in a player on an expiring contract like O.J. Mayo or Jerryd Bayless, Milwaukee would probably be hesitant to disrupt its long-term structure for an impending free agent like Mozgov.

Cleveland has the advantage of a pair of trade exceptions, one worth about $10.5MM and the other close to $3MM, to avoid salary-matching headaches, but even so, it’s not easy to see a feasible trade for Mozgov. The native of Russia was such a clear fit with last year’s Cavaliers, and even though he and former coach David Blatt, who’s coached the Russian national team, had a shared history of sorts, the Cavs owe it to themselves to give Lue the opportunity to connect with him in a way Blatt couldn’t and restore his confidence and his level of performance. The benching might be a wake-up call of sorts that allows Mozgov to sort out any physical and mental issues. It might not. Regardless, a Mozgov trade would seem like a rash move for a team that just made one with its coaching change. The Cavs can’t let the pressure to win now force them into a trade they’ll regret.

Do you see a workable Mozgov trade that helps the Cavs? Leave a comment to share your ideas.

Trade Candidate: Jeff Teague

January 28th, 2016 at 12:31pm CST by Chuck Myron

Sam Sharpe / USA TODAY Sports Images

The Hawks were in the midst of an undefeated month in January 2015. A year later, they’re reportedly talking with other teams about potential trades involving Jeff Teague, who was as much a part of Atlanta’s 60-win success last season as anybody. The team is having preliminary discussions on many fronts, a source told Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link), and coach/executive Mike Budenholzer, speaking to Vivlamore, downplayed the idea of a trade, expressing a belief in the existing roster. However, the team was also soliciting offers for Dennis Schröder before narrowing its focus to Teague, as Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports reported, and Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com heard the Knicks are one of the teams with which the Hawks have had casual conversations about Teague. Atlanta’s front office hasn’t shopped Teague, but they’ve raised his name in conversations with other teams as they assess his market value, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports said in Wednesday’s “The Vertical” podcast (audio link, scroll to 48-minute mark).

So, the Hawks aren’t quite ready to move on from Teague, but it seems they’re seriously considering it. Teague is only 27, with a season and a half left on a bargain contract that pays him $8MM this season and next. He’d be an unlikely trade candidate if not for the presence of Schröder, five years younger and tantalizingly skilled, as Teague’s backup. The team has “major trust issues” with Schröder, according to Zach Lowe of ESPN.com, which seems an odd juxtaposition to the idea that they’d be willing to trade Teague. Perhaps, with Kyle Korver already showing signs of age and Al Horford apparently not a lock to return as this summer’s free agency approaches, the team is thinking about taking a risk. The Hawks want to contend this season, Lowe wrote in the same report, so it would seem the exploration of a Teague trade is, in at least some regard, an attempt to find a roster upgrade for the near term.

The central problem there is that Teague is quite possibly the best player legitimately on the market. No superstar trade candidate has emerged since the Kings backed away from the notion of trading DeMarcus Cousins, and while names like Kevin Love and Dwight Howard have been bandied about, most such talk has been speculative. Teague isn’t quite on the level of any of them, but he was an All-Star last season and is a proven commodity who’s stabilized the point guard position in his five years as a starter for the Hawks. Atlanta has made the playoffs every year of his career.

Other names reportedly in trade talks, like Kevin Martin, Eric Gordon and Rudy Gay, would give the Hawks some of the punch on the wing that they lost when DeMarre Carroll left in free agency, but none of them would seem worth sacrificing Teague for, and it’s tough to see a fit for Teague on the Timberwolves, Pelicans or Kings. The idea of a Knicks trade is also a tough one, as even though he’d solve New York’s dilemma at the point, a workable proposal that would excite the Hawks is tough to conjure. That’s why it’s no surprise that Fred Kerber of the New York Post wrote that a deal sending Teague to the Knicks is unlikely after hearing from sources who described the talks between the teams as “very preliminary.”

The Bucks and Jazz have only been the subject of speculation regarding Teague to this point, but they seem better fits. Michael Carter-Williams is averaging a career-low 11.7 points per game for Milwaukee, which has no shortage of intriguing young wing players as well as veterans O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless. Bucks GM John Hammond recently expressed a belief in the team’s young players, though the contract that Teague is on was originally an offer sheet from Milwaukee, so perhaps the Bucks remain intrigued. The Jazz have Dante Exum coming back at point guard next season but little else at the position for now. Utah, like Milwaukee, has multiple wing players who combine youth with immediate production. The question is whether GM Dennis Lindsey, who was once a Spurs colleague of Budenholzer’s, would be willing to give one of them up.

The key for Atlanta appears to be finding a spark offensively. The Hawks gave up 100.7 points per 100 possessions in their 60-win regular season last year, according to NBA.com, and they’re slightly better in that regard this year, relinquishing an even 100. The difference shows up in the team’s points per 100 possessions scored. Last year, it was 106.2, and this year, it’s 103.1.

Part of that has to do with Teague. His 14.3 points per game are his fewest in four seasons, and while that’s partly the product of slightly fewer shots per game, his 41.9% field goal percentage is as low as it has been since he shot 39.6% in limited playing time as a rookie. His assists per game are down, from 7.0 last season to 5.5 this year, but his turnovers remain steady at 2.8 per contest. The plus is that he’s nailing a career best 38.7% from behind the 3-point line.

Still, it’s tough to ignore the discrepancy between how the Hawks have played with him versus the way they’ve looked with Schröder, whose NBA.com net rating of 10.1 blows away Teague’s minus 2.0. It’s a noisy stat that encompasses the time they’ve shared the floor and depends heavily on whom they’re playing with and against, but it’s a wide enough gulf to help explain why the Hawks seem to be moving toward choosing Schröder over Teague.

The Hawks weren’t at full strength when the Cavs swept them in the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, but neither was Cleveland. Atlanta is eight games in the loss column behind the Cavs this year, and it’s becoming clear that for the Hawks to legitimately challenge for the Eastern Conference title, they’ll have to improve. Seeing what they could get for Teague is a logical step toward that end, but no guarantee exists that the market will bear a deal that would amount to much more than a lateral move.

Do you think the Hawks will end up trading Teague before the deadline or keep him instead? Leave a comment to weigh in.

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