Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate: Markieff Morris

January 19th, 2016 at 2:29pm CST by Chuck Myron

Mark J. Rebilas / USA TODAY Sports Images

When I first wrote a trade candidate piece on Markieff Morris in August, it didn’t seem as though the Suns could get fair value for a player who had made no secret of his desire to leave town, and after months of twists and turns in the saga, that still appears to be the case. It’s nonetheless worth checking in on the idea of a Morris trade once again, since much has changed for both player and team.

Morris came to training camp and essentially retracted his trade demand, though he’s played coy when asked specifically about whether he wants to be traded. He otherwise made a litany of team-friendly statements, but his twin brother, Marcus, caused a stir when he said Markieff “doesn’t look happy” playing with the Suns. Markieff dismissed his brother’s remark, but regardless, the problem the Suns had earlier this season appeared to be how he was playing, not where he was playing. Coach Jeff Hornacek took the struggling power forward out of the starting lineup and at times the rotation entirely, a situation that came to a head when Morris threw a towel that struck Hornacek after the two engaged in an argument on the bench during a late December game, leading the Suns to suspend Morris without pay for two games. Morris apologized, and after a 16-point, nine-rebound effort off the bench against the Pacers a week ago, Hornacek surprisingly gave him his starting job back.

A decent chance exists that Morris is starting again chiefly because the Suns want to showcase him for trades, but it’s not as if Phoenix is without reason to legitimately experiment with its lineups, having lost 13 of its last 14 games. The Suns have nonetheless made Morris “very available” to other teams, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com wrote last month, and reports over the past few months have indicated that Phoenix has spoken about potential Morris trades with the Pelicans and Rockets.

New Orleans has seemingly been reluctant to trade Ryan Anderson for Morris, but conversations with the Rockets reportedly reached an advanced stage, with the sides discussing the idea of swapping Morris for Terrence Jones and Corey Brewer. Friday was the first day such a trade could happen, since Brewer wasn’t eligible to be traded before January 15th, but it hasn’t happened yet. The Suns have reportedly eyed the Cavs as a potential faciliator in a three-team deal that would send Morris elsewhere, and the Pistons, who already traded for his brother this summer, also apparently hold interest.

The Suns have reportedly shifted focus away from veterans like Anderson and toward young players and draft picks as they consider what they could get in a Morris trade. That makes sense, since the team has plummeted to 13-29, but that only puts them five and a half games out of the playoffs in a Western Conference that’s much weaker than usual. GM Ryan McDonough said recently to Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe that the team isn’t quite ready to declare the postseason a lost cause yet.

Regardless, it doesn’t appear as though the Suns can be too picky about what they get for Morris at this point. McDonough said on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM last week that he felt no immediate pressure to trade him. Perhaps that’s because of an unyielding market. Zach Lowe of ESPN.com reported last month that teams were asking the Suns to attach another player to Morris in trade proposals, indicating an unwillingness to take Morris without receiving some additional compensation. I speculated in August that packaging either Archie Goodwin or T.J. Warren with Morris could net the Suns a starting-caliber power forward in return, but Warren and Goodwin are just the sort of developing players Phoenix reportedly wants to have. Goodwin is still struggling to find playing time in his third NBA season, however. It wouldn’t represent that much of a sacrifice for the Suns to move on from him if another team really likes the former 29th overall pick, but it’s unclear if McDonough and company are ready to make such a move.

The Suns no doubt understand better than anyone else how much the continued presence of Morris influences Goodwin, Warren and the rest of the locker room. Morris’ legal troubles and criticism of Suns fans in the past raise red flags, but it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a poor teammate. It’s possible the Suns prefer to keep Morris around as a lightning rod for controversy to deflect blame from Hornacek and the rest of the roster as it underachieves.

Still, the back-and-forth surrounding Morris seems to signal that Phoenix will ultimately trade him. The Suns could do worse than Jones and Brewer from the Rockets, if that proposal remains in play. They could see what they could get from the Pistons, but Detroit is in strong contention for its first playoff berth since 2009 and doesn’t seem particularly eager for a major move. The Pelicans have traded their last three first-round picks and don’t have many intriguing young players other than Anthony Davis, who’s surely off the table.

It’s easy to say the Suns should have moved on from Morris a while ago, but for now, it doesn’t appear they have too many strong options. The chances of finding a taker improve as the deadline nears, and the Suns should have a better idea by then of whether they’ll have a reasonable chance to make a run at a playoff berth. All bets are off if Phoenix doesn’t win a game or two in the next couple of weeks or if another Morris controversy emerges, but barring an unforeseen change, expect the Suns to hang on to Morris until the deadline, if not longer.

What do you think the Suns should do with Morris? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.

Trade Candidate Series

January 19th, 2016 at 10:59am CST by Chuck Myron

The February 18th trade deadline is fast approaching. Plenty of movement should take place between now and then, and Hoops Rumors is taking an in-depth look at players who seem like decent bets to change teams. These aren’t players who necessarily will be traded by the deadline, but there’s a distinct possibility that their teams will at least listen to offers if not actively shop them in the coming weeks.

Our Trade Candidate pieces explore why a trade might happen, the likelihood of a deal going down, and potential suitors, along with other relevant details. Last season, we profiled Goran Dragic, Reggie Jackson, Arron Afflalo, Michael Carter-Williams, Jeff Green, Thaddeus Young and Norris Cole, all of whom were traded before the deadline, along with Lance Stephenson and Nik Stauskas, who were eventually traded over the summer.

A complete list of the players we’ve examined so far during the 2015/16 season is below, in alphabetical order. This list can be found in our right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” and will continue to be updated until the deadline.

Trade Candidate: Taj Gibson

January 11th, 2016 at 9:05pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today Sports Images

Taj Gibson provides old-school skills at a position that has become increasingly more perimeter-oriented. The Bulls veteran is the antithesis of a stretch four — he doesn’t spread the floor by hanging around the 3-point circle and waiting for a kickout pass.

Gibson’s game is based upon power. He’s a solid rebounder, a superior rim protector and an above-average mid-range shooter.

The Bulls apparently hope that another team that needs a player fitting that description will give them a call. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports raised that possibility last month, reporting that the Bulls are looking to acquire the best possible wing player available, with Gibson or Joakim Noah being the bargaining chip. The Bulls believe they need another shooter at the wing alongside emerging franchise player Jimmy Butler, according to Wojnarowski.

On the surface, that’s surprising since Chicago currently ranks fourth in the league in 3-point percentage. But in their quest to reach the NBA Finals, the Bulls will need all the firepower they can muster to prevent the Cavaliers from making a return trip.

Chicago is hopeful of getting Mike Dunleavy back in action during the second half of the season, which could fill that need. There’s no guarantee that Dunleavy will regain his old form once he completes his rehab of a back injury that has sidelined him all season, so the Bulls could opt for a healthier, younger wing man.

Noah’s return from a shoulder injury on Monday gives the Bulls plenty of frontcourt depth. They have one of the league’s top centers in Pau Gasol, a defensive stalwart in Noah and a stretch four in Nikola Mirotic. They also have an emerging rookie in Bobby Portis, who has skills similar to Gibson’s.

Gibson had been starting and playing heavy minutes in Noah’s absence but the Bulls could easily plug Portis into Gibson’s role if they swing a deal. Sam Smith of NBA.com recently provided a compelling argument against trading Gibson, opining that he’s simply too valuable and reliable to send packing. Moreover, Smith points out, the Bulls’ frontcourt could be thinned considerably following the season. Noah becomes an unrestricted free agent and Gasol, woefully underpaid by NBA standards, will almost certainly opt out of the final year on his contract.

By the numbers, Gibson remains as effective as he’s ever been. His PER has exceeded the league average in three of the last four seasons and it’s currently at 15.54 this season. He’s shooting a career-best 52.8% from the field, his 6.8 rebounding average is as high as it’s been since his rookie season and he’s averaging a career-high 1.5 assists.

According to NBA.com’s advanced stats, Gibson has made 45.5% of his mid-range shots. Gibson has actually had more trouble finishing at the rim (40% on layup attempts), so his offensive production could increase if he can get that straightened out.

Make no mistake, Gibson’s calling card comes on the defensive end. His Offensive Box Plus/Minus Rating, according to Basketball-Reference, has been below zero every season of his career but it’s been more than offset by the positives he puts up in Defensive Box Plus/Minus Rating. His current 2.4 Defensive Box rating is better than it’s been since his second season.

Gibson’s strong season can be attributed in part to improved health. He had offseason surgery that uncovered and repaired a torn ligament in his left ankle and he told K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune that his mobility is much improved. “I’m completely stronger as far as my lateral movement and being able to switch more to guards,” Gibson said. “I feel a lot faster.”

Noah’s $13.4MM salary, plus his injury history and impending free agency, makes him tougher to deal than Gibson, a Western Conference GM recently told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News.

Gibson is making $8.5MM this season and is locked into an $8.95MM contract in his walk year of 2016/17. Thus, it makes sense that any team dealing for him would want him in its rotation beyond this season. It also figures that his suitor would be a playoff contender, since Gibson doesn’t fit the mold of a young, developing player with upside.

Which playoff contenders need another rebounding big? Start with the Hawks, who rank last in rebounding differential. They have one of the league’s most feared 3-point shooters in veteran swingman Kyle Korver, who is shooting a career-low 36% from long distance. Perhaps a change of scenery could energize Korver.

The red-hot Clippers may not be inclined to do anything at the moment but their team rebounding numbers are surprisingly poor despite the presence of DeAndre Jordan and currently injured Blake Griffin. Another big body could help them down the road and they could offer veteran wing Jamal Crawford, a proven bench scorer.

The Grizzlies are one of the league’s worst 3-point shooting teams but could also use someone to fortify their frontcourt behind Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Courtney Lee is struggling with his shot this season but is a 38.1% career shooter from long distance, so that might interest the Bulls.

These trade proposals are pure speculation on my part but offer a glimpse as to what type of player the Bulls might get back for Gibson. Bear in mind that Chicago is a taxpaying team, so the Bulls can only take in 125% of the salary they trade away, plus $100K, unless they bring in players with contracts that fit within the minimum salary exception.

Don’t forget the Bulls rarely go the trade route to improve their team — they haven’t made one since July 14th, 2014, and lack trade exceptions. But if the Bulls truly want to get another shooter for their playoff run, dealing Gibson would seem to be their best option.

Trade Candidate: Kevin Martin

January 11th, 2016 at 12:42pm CST by Chuck Myron

Brace Hemmelgarn / USA Today Sports Images

A cursory glance at Kevin Martin suggests he should be a more sought-after commodity than he is. After all, someone who scored 20 points per game the previous season, is under contract for just $7.085MM this season, has no existing injury problems and a solid locker room reputation sounds like quite a catch. Still, the availability of Martin on the trade market, which Jon Krawczynski of The Associated Press reported last month, doesn’t appear to have inspired executives from other teams to make any sort of mad rush for him. The 11th-year veteran’s high scoring last season came in just 39 games, and this year his points per game have dipped to 11.5, his fewest since the 2005/06 season, in large measure because a focus on youth in Minnesota has led interim coach Sam Mitchell to move him in and out of the starting lineup, and at times the rotation entirely.

The Kings are one of the teams that likes Martin, as Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities reported shortly after the news emerged that he’s on the block. They’ve called the Wolves about him, as Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders heard, and the Bulls and Grizzlies have looked into trading for him, too, Kyler added. However, the Grizzlies have resisted attempts from Minnesota for a swap of Martin for Courtney Lee, as USA Today’s Sam Amick detailed. Memphis doesn’t want to bite into its cap flexibility for next season, according to Amick, and that helps explain the team’s lack of a desire to swap Lee, a pending free agent, for Martin, who has a player option worth almost $7.378MM for 2016/17.

No one’s certain just what Martin will do with his option, Amick said, and while many teams will have gobs of cap space this summer, the option is still large enough to pose a problem, especially for teams that would like to be able to make a marquee addition. Martin has proven that he can score and shoot from long distance, but as his stint replacing James Harden in Oklahoma City revealed, he’s no substitute for a star.

The 6’7″ shooting guard was, at his peak, a versatile offensive threat, nailing 41.5% of his 3-pointers and attempting 10.3 free throws per game for the Kings in 2008/09, the season in which he averaged a career-high 24.6 points a night. He stopped getting to the line in 2011/12, when his free-throw rate fell from .528 the year before to .333, perhaps because of new foul-call rules introduced for that season. His free-throw rate hasn’t recovered since, though it’s experienced somewhat of an uptick this season, to .396. That’s perhaps because he’s taking fewer 3-pointers per shot attempt than in any year since he was a rookie.

Martin, who turns 33 on February 1st, has never been a defensive stopper, and the numbers suggest he’s sieve-like this season. He ranks as the 71st-best defensive shooting guard in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus metric, is a minus 3.4 in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus stat, and Minnesota’s defense, only the 20th most efficient in the league, is 2.5 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor compared to when he’s sitting, according to NBA.com.

It’s tough to understand why the Kings, just 27th in defensive efficiency, would have interest in a reunion, particularly since Sacramento would be helping a fellow bottom-half Western Conference team gain assets for the future. The Kings are understandably anxious to end their playoff drought, but Martin would go much better on a team with realistic aspirations of a deep playoff run, like the Bulls or the Grizzlies.

Chicago seems like a particularly strong fit. The Bulls are reportedly looking for an upgrade on the wing and believe they could use more shooting. Martin is a career 38.5% 3-point shooter, and while his accuracy is down slightly, to 37.2%, this season, he canned 40.5% of his shots from behind the arc during the previous three seasons. The question is what the Bulls would give up to get him. Chicago has a surplus of big men, but the Wolves are fairly deep up front too, with Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng and Nemanja Bjelica to go along with Kevin Garnett, who’s still starting. Minnesota signaled a desire to clear cap space, or at least achieve cost certainty, with its reported proposal of Martin for Lee, but the Timberwolves would have little reason to acquire trade candidate Joakim Noah and his expiring contract. The Bulls have an extra first-round pick coming their way courtesy of the Kings, so perhaps they could part with one of their own picks as the centerpiece of a package. However, Chicago would have to come up with at least $5.588MM in salary to add to a deal that swaps Martin for a pick, and that would either entail the potential deal-killers of the Bulls relinquishing a fairly valuable player, the Timberwolves taking back long-term salary, or both.

The Grizzlies would surely benefit from Martin’s shooting, too, though again, it’s tough to see an obvious solution to the question of whom or what they would send out in return. They’re below the tax threshold, but only by about $2MM, so while in theory they could send out as little as $4.657MM in salary straight up for Martin, they’d run over the tax line if they did so, and trade rules are different for tax teams. Outside of Lee and Mike Conley, whom they’re not trading, the expiring deal that might make the most sense for the Grizzlies to swap for Martin belongs to Jeff Green, who’s making $9.45MM this year. A Martin-for-Green deal would allow Memphis to trim salary and cut ties with a player who’s never quite fit in. Green is shooting a dreadful 26.7% from 3-point range this season and is only a 33.9% career 3-point shooter. The Timberwolves could move on from Green at season’s end, just as they could with Lee, or they could try to keep him around if he proves a better match for them than he has for the Grizzlies. Still, it’s unclear if either the Grizzlies or Minnesota has interest in such a trade.

The Thunder, Spurs and Heat are other teams capable of deep playoff runs that have made a below-average number of 3-pointers this season, though it certainly hasn’t hurt San Antonio much to this point. Oklahoma City probably isn’t anxious to relive its one-season experiment with Martin. Miami could help reduce its tax bill with a swap of Luol Deng for Martin, which would work under the salary-matching rules, but the Heat would surely be loath to compromise their 2016/17 cap flexibility in any way, so it’s tough to see them dealing an expiring contract like Deng’s for Martin.

It seems as though the Timberwolves are ready to move on from Martin, but finding a deal that works will likely be difficult. Such is the nature of having a one-dimensional player on the wrong side of 30. Still, Martin remains a credible threat from behind the arc, and 3-point shooting has never been in higher demand, so if the Timberwolves aren’t too picky and show a willingness to take back some salary for 2016/17, they’ll probably find the trade partner necessary for GM Milt Newton to make his first swap in charge of the team’s player personnel.

Where do you think Martin will be playing after the trade deadline? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.

Trade Candidate: Caron Butler

January 6th, 2016 at 10:59am CST by Chuck Myron

Brad Mills / USA Today Sports Images

A Caron Butler trade was never imminent, but it seemed a fairly strong bet in the middle of last month that the Kings would ship out the 35-year-old Wisconsin native and that he would end up close to home on the Bucks. Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported December 16th that Sacramento had promised Butler that he’d be traded so he could see more playing time and that Milwaukee was his likely destination. Since then, Bucks coach and prime mover of personnel Jason Kidd went on a leave of absence to undergo and recover from hip surgery and, as Stein reported last week, the team has tabled its interest in Butler. It’s unclear whether Kidd’s hiatus has to do with the team’s apparent withdrawal from the Butler talks, but the upshot is that the veteran small forward’s future is even murkier than it was before.

Butler started in place of an ailing Rudy Gay and played 19 minutes against the Nets on November 13th, but since then, he’s made only three appearances, the last of which was a six-minute cameo on December 21st. The 14th-year veteran who turns 36 in March clearly isn’t what he used to be, but he made 21 starts and played in 78 games just last season with the Pistons, canning a useful 37.9% of his 3-point attempts. The year before that he averaged 10.5 points per game, shot 39.4% from behind the arc, and was one of the most sought-after buyout candidates after the trade deadline until the Thunder scooped him up. He didn’t have the desired effect for Oklahoma City in the playoffs that year, notching a dreadful 6.8 PER, but he remains proficient as a spot-up shooter who can help a contender that wouldn’t ask too much of him.

The Heat might just be that team. Miami drafted Butler in 2002, and he spent his first two seasons with the Heat before they shipped him to the Lakers as part of their package for Shaquille O’Neal. They were one of the early favorites to land him in the 2014 buyout market before he signed with the Thunder. Then, just like now, the Heat had depth at forward that served as a stumbling block for his return to Miami, but that could change if the Heat unload Chris Andersen, Luol Deng or another player in a cost-cutting move. The Heat have incentive to shed salary, since they’re over the luxury tax line and risk becoming the first team ever to pay the onerous repeat-offender tax penalties if they stay over it.

Butler would make a cheap alternative on the two-year, minimum-salary deal he signed this past summer with the Kings, though the Heat would have to unload more significant salary in either a separate deal or involve a third team in a swap for Butler, because the Kings are over the cap and without a trade exception. Still, Butler’s contract is relatively easy to trade, since it doesn’t require the team that takes him in to have cap space, a trade exception or even to match salaries. It fits within the minimum-salary exception, which is freely available to teams at just about any time.

More troublesome for the Kings is finding a deal that nets a palatable return. Sacramento is in a compromising position, given the report of the team’s vow to trade Butler, so at best it would seem the Kings could come away with a second-round pick that isn’t heavily protected. The Sixers have a renewed interest in veterans with chairman of basketball operations Jerry Colangelo freshly on board, but after dealing two second-rounders to the Pelicans for Ish Smith, Philadelphia is without a second-round pick in either of the next two drafts. The Celtics have no shortage of second-round picks, but they seem more likely to hang on to them to aid their quest for a star than to trade them for a veteran presence.

The Thunder have a surplus of second-rounders coming their way, and they were reportedly among the teams expected to pursue Butler in free agency this past summer. Oklahoma City has more weapons, particularly on offense, than it did two years ago, so perhaps a second Thunder stint for Butler would go more smoothly than the first did. The Bulls apparently had interest in Butler this past offseason, too, though they’re only break-even in the second-round pick department. Chicago is reportedly looking for an upgrade on the wing and wants to add shooting, yet Butler wouldn’t be the profound difference-maker the Bulls would no doubt prefer. The Spurs were another of the teams linked to Butler in the summer, but they’re not particularly given to making trades and have no need to disrupt their rhythm as winners of 12 of their last 13. The Clippers are one of Butler’s old teams and, like the Thunder, reportedly had interest in a reunion as of this summer. They have more holes to fill than San Antonio does, but Paul Pierce would appear to play the role that Butler would probably be expected to fill in L.A.

Regardless, Butler has made an impact in his brief time with Sacramento, serving as the public spokesman for the players during a contentious team meeting in November and clearly asserting himself as a veteran leader. Still, even though the Kings have a reputation for turmoil, Sacramento has other veterans on the roster who would likely soften whatever blow that Butler’s departure would deliver to team chemistry, James Ham of CSN California and CSNBayArea.com recently said to Hoops Rumors.

It seems the impetus for a trade is coming from Butler and not the Kings, even as the Sacramento front office sounds like it’s eager to fulfill his apparent wish to play elsewhere. Several reasonably logical trade partners exist, though none of them seem a perfect fit. Many of them could be reluctant to commit to the second year of Butler’s deal, which is a player option, so Butler might have to be willing to decline that option in advance, as Corey Brewer did last winter, to accommodate a trade. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be surprising if Butler has to wait until the buyout window after the trade deadline to find a new home, just as it was two years ago.

Which team do you think makes the most sense for Caron Butler? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.

Trade Candidate: Jahlil Okafor

January 2nd, 2016 at 11:32pm CST by ChrisCrouse

For much of the 2014/15 campaign, many pegged Jahlil Okafor as the top prospect for the 2015 draft. His footwork, ball-handling skills and overall fundamentals enraptured scouts and fans alike. Yet after two months of NBA action and several off–court incidents, questions remain about whether the big man can become a franchise cornerstone.

January 2, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor (8) controls the ball against Los Angeles Clippers during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today Sports Images

Part of the issue is the fit in Philadelphia. Okafor has no future in the league playing any position besides the five spot, something that’s even more true with the small-ball trend taking over the league. The problem, at least on the court, lies in the personnel around him. Nerlens Noel is clearly a center despite playing over half of his minutes at the four spot. Joel Embiid showcased some outside shooting during his time in college, but there is little evidence that he can play any position beside the five at the NBA level. Whenever the Sixers get out of the rebuilding industry and start looking to field a competitive team, they’ll have some decisions to make, as there is just no room at the inn for all these big men.

Making a trade will be the logical option at some point and maximizing value has been a constant during the Sam Hinkie administration. The Sixers traded Jrue Holiday just months after he appeared in his first All-Star Game, and they dealt Michael Carter-Williams when he was the reigning Rookie of the Year. Okafor’s trade value has probably taken a hit since he came into the league, but young big men with his kind of talent don’t become available very often, and if the Sixers dangle him in trade discussions, they should be able to fetch an excellent return.

Earlier in the season, John Smallwood of The Daily News wondered if the Sixers should consider a trade for Derrick Rose. Franchise-altering stars rarely become available, and although Rose hasn’t consistently played at an MVP level since injuring his knees, this is the type of move the Sixers should be making if they’re going to claim a strategy of championship-or-bust. Smallwood suggested the team offer the Lakers’ pick, which was acquired in the MCW trade, and one other late first-round pick for Rose. That Lakers pick is one of the league’s best trade assets, given Los Angeles’ struggles, and it may not make sense to give that up for the gamble that Rose has become. A deal centered around Okafor and Rose would be better for Philadelphia, and it would make sense for Chicago.

The Bulls have an anemic offense and the team chemistry has been shaky to say the least. With Jimmy Butler‘s emergence as a No. 1 option, the Bulls may be better off retooling around their star wing. Chicago has reportedly made Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah available in search of an upgrade on the wing opposite to Butler. Finding value for Noah would be tricky, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors noted in Noah’s trade candidate piece, and trading Gibson would likely net a greater return, but it carries the risk of turning a position of strength into one of weakness if Noah and Pau Gasol depart after the season. In addition to adding a young pillar who could help carry the team offensively, the acquisition of Okafor would allow Chicago to explore the trade market for another perimeter player.

Philadelphia would have to include other players in order to have the financial ability to acquire Rose, as Okafor is making roughly $4.58MM this season and the Sixers currently sit nearly $10MM under the salary cap. They could toss Carl Landry with his $6.5MM salary and Isaiah Canaan, who is making slightly over $947K, into a package with Okafor and they would have a successful trade from a salary matching standpoint. Both sides would likely argue that the other should attach an asset to make a deal happen, but I’d speculate that Chicago would ultimately have to pony up a little more value, such as a protected first-round pick, to get a deal done because of the size of Rose’s deal.

His contract, which has slightly over $41.4MM remaining on it and includes a 15% trade kicker, makes acquiring him a deterrent for nearly every franchise. Yet Philadelphia is built a little differently than the typical NBA team. Acquiring Rose and his massive contract wouldn’t carry the same opportunity cost for Philadelphia as it would for the other 28 franchises to do the same. As noted above, The Sixers are nearly $10MM under the cap this season and the team has only slightly more than $25.5MM in guaranteed salary on the books against a projected $89MM salary for the 2016/17 season, as our Salary Cap Projection page indicates. Philadelphia hasn’t spent all of its cap space in any season during the Sam Hinkie era and there have been rumors that agents would steer their clients away from signing in Philly once they were ready spend. The presence of Jerry Colangelo might bring change to that, but the team can’t reasonably believe a true star is going to arrive via free agency yet.

Rose, who has missed the last few games because of his hamstring injury, hasn’t resembled anything close to a franchise player this season, averaging just 14.4 points, 5.1 assist and 0.6 steals per game, while shooting 38.6% from the field, including an icy 24.6% from behind the arc. The Memphis product has suffered numerous injuries over the last calendar year, including a torn right knee meniscus and a sprained left ankle. His preseason orbital fracture led him to spend two weeks in a dark room doing almost nothing, according to Zach Lowe of ESPN.com. Having that type of facial injury has to alter your mental psyche on the court, and the Sixers would give Rose an environment this season where he could simply work on his game, similar to an elongated D-League stint. This is a perfect buy-low opportunity for the franchise and it’s also a winning situation for Rose. The former No.1 overall pick could benefit from running a Mike D’Antoni offense, which has historically been favorable to point guards, and set himself up for another lucrative payday at the end of the 2016/17 season.

Picture a healthy — both mentally from a basketball standpoint and physically — Rose running the break during the 2016/17 season with Noel and Jerami Grant galloping alongside him. Nik Stauskas is sprinting down the sideline, spacing the floor and taking attention away from Rose, while Robert Covington is trailing the play, staying ready for the spot-up 3-pointer in transition. Picture Embiid, hopefully standing on two healthy feet, cheering on the team near the bench as he gets ready to headline a respectable second unit that includes Dario Saric, Ish Smith and Richaun Holmes. Add in a likely top-three overall pick in the 2016 draft, as well as a few other rookies, and you can see a team with an identity and a future.

This scenario may be a pipe dream, but if the point guard’s game can resemble anything close to an All-Star’s again, trading Okafor for him would put Philadelphia back on the NBA map. If Rose suffers a setback or simply remains ineffective, the Sixers are right where they are now — in a position to tank. The difference would be that they took a high-ceiling risk that involved the acquisition of a possible game-changing star to arrive at the same point, and that would be a path to the lottery that other team owners can’t gripe about.

Trade Candidate: Joakim Noah

December 25th, 2015 at 2:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Matt Marton / USA Today Sports Images

Joakim Noah was the All-NBA First Team center and the Defensive Player of the Year in 2013/14, a season in which he finished fourth in MVP voting and embodied the scrapping spirit of former coach Tom Thibodeau‘s Bulls. It seemed at times that year as though he was simply willing his team to its 48 victories and the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, as Derrick Rose again missed most of the season. So, it’s striking to see where Noah is now. The Bulls have benched him and reportedly put him on the trade block, and he was averaging just 4.5 points per game, a career low, before spraining and suffering a “slight tear” in his left shoulder this week, an injury likely to keep him out for up to a month.

The downfall seemed to start with Chicago’s decision to sign Pau Gasol in the summer of 2014. Gasol made it clear during his time with the Lakers that he plays best as a center, not as a power forward, and that’s particularly true as the NBA moves increasingly toward small-ball. The addition of Gasol forced Noah, long entrenched as Chicago’s center, to change the way he played. The adjustment has been difficult, and the nagging injuries that have plagued Noah certainly haven’t helped. He remained in the starting lineup last season, but his scoring average dipped into the single digits for the first time in six years. His rebounding slipped to a six-year low, too.

It’s tough to measure whether Noah has sustained his defense, and as teams consider trading for him, making the right read on this will be critical. His defensive reputation took a hit last season, as he sunk to 12th in Defensive Player of the Year voting after winning the award in 2013/14. Still, his defensive impact on the Bulls was about the same in terms of the team’s defensive rating with him on the court versus off, according to NBA.com. Other advanced metrics say he was indeed a poorer defender in 2014/15 than he was in 2013/14, including Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus Minus, where his number went from 5.5 to 3.6, and ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, where he went from 3.92 to 2.21.

This season, the data sets disagree in the opposite direction. The team’s defensive rating with him on the court is worse than it is when he’s sitting, but he’s seen gains in Box Plus Minus and Real Plus Minus. The Real Plus Minus metric shows him as the league’s seventh-best defensive center.

Teams that invest heavily in proprietary data figure to have an edge, and few study the numbers the way the Mavs do. Dallas quite famously came up empty in its bid to acquire a marquee starting center this past summer, but the center the Mavs wound up with, Zaza Pachulia, is averaging a double-double and is 12th in Defensive Real Plus Minus this season, just five spots beneath Noah. The Mavs would surely hesitate to give up assets for Noah, whom they could simply sign in free agency this summer, particularly given Pachulia’s strong play.

The Rockets are another team heavy on analytics, and questions have swirled about Dwight Howard, who, like Noah, isn’t the player he once was. Noah would bring some leadership to a team that appears to sorely need it, but a Dwight-for-Noah swap is a far-fetched idea, at least without a third team involved. The Bulls would have to include an extra chunk of salary, since Noah is making just $13.4MM compared to Howard’s pay of more than $22.359MM, and the tandem of Howard and Gasol was already a failure for the Lakers. It would help if the Rockets sent the Bulls the wing players and shooting they’re reportedly after, but Houston isn’t trading James Harden, Trevor Ariza is shooting just 31.8% from behind the arc, and the other Rocket wings of note — Corey Brewer, Jason Terry and Marcus Thornton — would scarcely be enough to entice Chicago.

Another Southwest Division team would make a much more intriguing suitor. The Pelicans appear to be going nowhere fast, having fallen to 9-20 after an overtime loss to the Heat today. Eric Gordon, a career 38.0% 3-point shooter, might just fit the bill for the sort of perimeter upgrade the Bulls are apparently seeking. Ryan Anderson is an alternative who’d provide shooting from a different position and would ostensibly be a better fit next to Gasol than Noah is, though the Bulls have no shortage of frontcourt players. The Pelicans made a strong statement about their desire to have Anthony Davis at power forward instead of center when they signed ex-Bull Omer Asik to a five-year deal in the summer, but he’s struggled mightily this season. So has Noah, of course, but the Pelicans could experiment with a change of scenery, and if Noah doesn’t pan out, they don’t have to re-sign him. The same goes for either Gordon or Anderson with the Bulls, since they’re both poised for free agency, too. Still, the Pelicans don’t appear eager to trade Anderson, and chatter about Gordon has been quiet of late.

The Bulls face a stiff challenge to find a new home for Noah, who turns 31 in February. Trading Taj Gibson, whom they’ve also apparently made available, would probably be easier to pull off and reportedly net a greater return, but that could turn a position of strength into one of weakness if Noah and Gasol depart in free agency this summer, leaving Chicago with Nikola Mirotic and the untested Bobby Portis up front without a strong candidate to back them up. GM Gar Forman and executive VP of basketball operations John Paxson also have to be careful about removing a leader from a locker room that seems to have some troubling dynamics. Nevertheless, it appears from a basketball standpoint as though the Bulls have already moved on from Noah, so it makes sense for the Bulls to find a palatable offer and formally bid him adieu before the chance to recoup any assets at all for him vanishes.

What potential trades do you think would work for Noah and the Bulls? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.

Trade Candidate: Brandon Jennings

December 7th, 2015 at 7:40pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The most likely player that the improving Pistons might trade in the coming months hasn’t stepped on the court this season. For a variety of reasons, point guard Brandon Jennings looms as the best bargaining chip the team possesses without moving one of its building blocks.

Photo by Rick Osentoski of USA Today Sports

Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images

Jennings is clearly expendable given the current state of the roster and blueprint that coach and team president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy has outlined to turn the floundering franchise into a perennial contender once again. Jennings has an expiring contract, and it’s sizeable enough at $8,344,497 to attract the interest of clubs seeking salary-cap relief for next season.

It’s also obvious that Jennings isn’t in Van Gundy’s long-term plans. That was readily apparent when the Pistons acquired restricted free agent and point guard Reggie Jackson from the Thunder at the trade deadline last February. Van Gundy swiftly made it known that the move wasn’t a short-term fix and backed up that talk by signing Jackson to a five-year, $80MM contract over the summer.

The Pistons may have taken a different approach if Jennings hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury the month before the Jackson trade. He tore his left Achilles tendon during a game against his former team, the Bucks, and the rehab has been so prolonged that he’s still in recovery mode. Prior to the injury, he was playing his best ball of the season, averaging 20.9 points and 7.2 assists in the month of January.

The Pistons have targeted a Christmastime return for Jennings, and with Steve Blake and Spencer Dinwiddie backing up Jackson, they don’t want him to return until he’s fully recovered. While he has been practicing and scrimmaging, Jennings has to prove he can be effective.

“He doesn’t have his quickness back,” Van Gundy said late last month. “He’s a ways away but he’s getting there. He can do pretty much everything. It’s just getting back into being able to play at that tempo. There’s definitely been progress but he’s still a ways away.”

Naturally, Jennings could pump up his trade value if he jumps into the Pistons’ rotation and shows some of his old form. Jennings realizes that he’s going to have to accept a second-unit role when he puts on the uniform again.

“Always in my head [I am a starter],” Jennings said recently. “But sometimes you’ve got to take the back seat and do what is best for the team.”

As an unrestricted free agent, Jennings has every incentive to make a strong comeback, rather than give potential suitors lingering doubts about his long-term health. It’s significant to note that Jennings is just 26 years old and if he regains that explosion, he’s an above-average player. He’s never had a season PER lower than 15.0, which is the league average rating.

Until he re-establishes his worth, Jennings is likely to stay put until the trade deadline approaches. At that time, as David Mayo of MLive.com points out, the Pistons will have three reserve point guards with trade value. Jennings would have the most value because of his large expiring deal, while Blake — who is making $2.17MM this season — will have a more affordable expiring contract. Dinwiddie, a second-year player, could attract some attention with his size (6’6”) and length but obviously wouldn’t bring back much in return.

The short-term boost that Jennings could provide to the Pistons’ bench might actually sap some of the incentive for Van Gundy to trade him. Detroit doesn’t have much scoring punch off its bench with the loss of shooting guard Jodie Meeks, who is likely out until at least the All-Star break with a foot fracture. For a playoff-starved team that hasn’t seen the postseason since 2008/09, the Pistons might decide to go with Jennings as their sixth man the rest of the way, then add the $8MM-plus on salary savings to their cap next summer.

Using that same thought process, the Pistons are unlikely to trade him for a player who would only help them with this season’s playoff push since they could get the same from Jennings. A more likely scenario would be a trade for a player who is signed for multiple seasons whom Van Gundy views as a rotation piece for years to come.

A struggling team like the Nets would seem a good fit. They could view a player like Jennings from two prisms. First, he could give them some cap relief for next season. They could also turn the second half of this season into an audition to see if they’d want him to re-sign him as their floor leader.

For the Pistons, a versatile forward like Thaddeus Young would seem like an ideal addition to fortify their frontcourt. Young has three years left on his deal — the last being a player option — but could be the type of player who could make the Pistons a much more viable playoff contender.

A team like the Knicks, who have a hole at point guard, would also appear to be a logical trade partner. They could swap a player like Arron Afflalo, who has an $8MM player option on his contract next season, and give themselves some more cap flexibility next summer. They could also give Jennings a long look to see if he fits their long-term needs. In return, the Pistons could replace the injury-prone Meeks.

A team like the Suns, who have enough point guards, might want Jennings’ expiring deal to get rid of a disgruntled player. The Morris brothers were unhappy when Phoenix traded Marcus to the Pistons during the offseason. Marcus Morris has thrived with his new team while Markieff Morris seems eager for a fresh start and teams around the league reportedly believe the Suns are prepared to trade him. The salaries wouldn’t match up, so other pieces would be needed to make that potential deal happen.

All this is pure speculation, of course, but the Jennings situation bears watching, especially after he makes his season debut. If he shows he’s fully recovered from his injury, the Pistons could flip him for another player who brings production in the short and long term.

Trade Candidate: Chris Andersen

October 12th, 2015 at 7:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The question regarding veteran big man Chris Andersen is not whether the Heat believe he has anything left in the tank. It’s whether any other team feels that way, or is at least willing to take on his salary to acquire another rotation player off the Heat roster.

Sep 28, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Chris Andersen (11) poses during photo day at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Miami tried to dump salary during the offseason in order to keep its core group intact. The Heat would like to make the 37-year-old Andersen part of that purge in order to improve their bottom line. They are over the luxury tax threshold and a repeat taxpayer. They have $91.1MM in salary guarantees for the upcoming season, including the remaining $5MM on Andersen’s contract.

They were able to move shooting guard Zoran Dragic to the Celtics and point guard Shabazz Napier to the Magic in July to gain some relief, though they had to throw in some cash in both deals to sweeten the pot. The Heat have actively shopped Andersen and point guard Mario Chalmers — who is owed $4.3MM in the final year of his deal — according to Grantland’s Zach Lowe. Miami is basically willing to give both of them away, according to Lowe, but obviously haven’t found any takers. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald recently reported that there was a soft market for the player nicknamed “Birdman.”

It’s not surprising, given that he’s 37 years old and in the twilight of his career. But according to advanced metrics, Birdman still has value. He had an above-average player efficiency rating of 16.12 last season on ESPN’s Hollinger rankings, when he averaged 5.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 60 games. In fact, Andersen has posted an above average PER (with 15.0 being the baseline) in seven consecutive seasons.

This is mainly due to Andersen’s defensive prowess, even at his advanced age. He has posted a positive Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating every season of his career, according to BasketballReference.com. He has a career plus 2.8 Defensive Box rating and that was still at 2.3 last season, when the injury-riddled Heat needed him to start 20 games.

That still won’t guarantee him a rotation spot if the Heat fail to trade him during training camp. There’s plenty of competition at the center and power forward spots, especially with the free agent addition of Amar’e Stoudemire, who was signed to a one-year, $1.5MM contract in July. Hassan Whiteside is the starter at center and another veteran, Udonis Haslem, is still on the roster.

Add in starting power forward Chris Bosh, who’s back after his major health scare last season, along with Josh McRoberts and Stoudemire, and there’s not many minutes left for Birdman. Throw in the trend to use smaller lineups, which will often encourage coach Erik Spoelstra to use Bosh or Stoudemire at center, and Andersen’s role shrinks even further.

The good news for Miami is that it has time to move Andersen’s contract. The Heat have until the final day of the regular season to avert paying repeat-offender tax penalties by shedding salary.

Playoff contenders that lose a center or power forward to injury during the course of camp or the season could come calling for Birdman, knowing he can provide a steady veteran presence and solid post defense. For the time being, though, he’s an insurance policy the Heat cannot afford in the long run.

Trade Candidate: Jamal Crawford

August 19th, 2015 at 12:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Jamal Crawford apparently wishes he were a free agent, as he said on Twitter earlier this summer, but he still has one more season left on his contract. However, if he wants to leave the Clippers, he seems to stand a decent chance of having that happen for him before next July. The Clippers aren’t eager to trade the two-time Sixth Man of the Year award winner, but they reportedly explored the idea around draft time, and they’ve spent the summer upgrading on the wing, with newcomers Lance Stephenson, Paul Pierce and Wesley Johnson. The Knicks have expressed interest, as Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reported Tuesday, and the Heat and Cavs were apparently interested as of earlier this summer. Crawford is 35 years old and coming off his fewest minutes per game since the 2002/03 season, but it appears there’s still a market for him.

The Heat called the Clippers about Crawford in early July, as Chris Haynes of Cleveland.com reported then, but as Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel points out, that was before Miami signed Gerald Green. Bringing in Crawford and his $5.675MM salary would likely commit the team to paying repeat-offender tax penalties this season, Winderman also asserts, though that would probably depend on the nature of the trade they’d make. The Clippers, like the Heat and the Cavs, are above the tax threshold for now, and that would complicate any move, since the salary-matching constraints are stricter for tax teams.

The Knicks are well outside of tax territory, for a change, but they face other challenges. The Knicks don’t have any trade exceptions, so they’d have to send players to the Clippers to make a trade work. Only four Knicks players — Carmelo Anthony, Jose Calderon, Langston Galloway and Cleanthony Early — are currently eligible for inclusion in trades. First-round picks Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant join them later this month, but that’s still not much to choose from. Calderon seems like the most logical candidate, given that the Clippers would be somewhat short on backup point guard options if Crawford weren’t there anymore, but the Clips would have to send additional salary to New York to make that a match. Porzingis would be an intriguing option for a Clippers team that doesn’t have much young talent coming up the pipeline, but the Knicks would be ill-advised to trade this year’s No. 4 overall pick for a 35-year-old who’s a year away from free agency. As Isola suggested, the involvement of a third team might be necessary if the Knicks are to somehow end up with Crawford.

The Cavaliers also only have four players eligible to be traded — Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao, Timofey Mozgov and Joe Harris — but they have a trade exception worth $10,522,500 that they can use to take in Crawford without giving up a player in return. That trade exception is a vestige of the Brendan Haywood contract that the Cavs were thinking about sending to the Clips when Cleveland looked into trading for Crawford in early July, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported then. The exception makes it easier for the teams to facilitate a deal, since the Clippers would have had to include additional salary along with Crawford to take in Haywood’s contract. Still, it would be difficult for the Clippers to give up Crawford without receiving a player who can help them in their quest for a championship this year. Teams only get so many legitimate cracks at a title, and the Clips would surely be loath to downgrade their talent just as they seem as close as they’ve ever been to the Larry O’Brien trophy.

That’s ostensibly why the Clippers aren’t anxious to trade Crawford in the first place. They’re probably not going to do a deal unless it benefits them on the court, and while Crawford could always pout or become a disruptive force in the locker room, he has yet to air his grievances beyond relatively innocuous social media interaction. The Clippers could nonetheless use some size behind DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. They added Cole Aldrich through free agency, but Aldrich hasn’t proven to be the sort of player who could fill in as the starter for a championship-level team if Jordan or Griffin is injured for any significant stretch of time. That would make Varejao, despite injury concerns of his own, intriguing for the Clippers. It’s unclear just what sort of role a healthy Varejao would play for the Cavs this season, especially with Tristan Thompson‘s free agency still unresolved, but if Thompson comes back, Varejao would be relatively expendable. Of course, the Brazilian is also tight with LeBron James, and the Cavs would have to question the wisdom of sending one of LeBron’s friends to a contending team in a major market with warm weather. The Clips would also have to send additional salary to Cleveland to make a Varejao deal work.

Josh McRoberts and Chris Andersen offer no such salary-matching concerns, and they, like Varejao, would help deepen the Clippers up front. The Heat have no shortage of big men, with McRoberts, Andersen, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Amar’e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem all on the roster, so it would seem fertile ground for a trade is there. I’d contend that if the Heat were to trade McRoberts or Andersen for Crawford, they’d be no more committed to paying the tax than they otherwise would be, since it would entail an almost even exchange of salaries, and Crawford would appear to be a more intriguing trade chip to offer around the league if the Heat can’t find another way to slip under the tax line before the trade deadline. Crawford would give the Heat a strong alternative at shooting guard on the nights that Dwyane Wade can’t go. The addition of Crawford would make it easier for the team to play more small-ball lineups and for Miami to trade Mario Chalmers, currently Miami’s only proven option at the point behind Goran Dragic.

Regardless, it’s a seller’s market for Crawford. The Clippers wield the power, and if they want to mend fences with him, they can always pursue extension talks, as I pointed out earlier. Teams like the Heat, Cavs and Knicks will have to come to Clips coach/executive Doc Rivers, and not the other way around.

What do you think a good trade idea for Crawford might be? Leave a comment to share your thoughts.

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