Trade Candidate

Trade Candidate: Deron Williams

February 12th, 2015 at 1:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Two and a half years ago, Deron Williams was the single most sought-after free agent in the NBA. It’s almost unfathomable to think of Williams in that context now, but Williams came away with the most lucrative deal in a weak class. Williams, teammate Brook Lopez, who’s now also a trade candidate, Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert, Nicolas Batum and JaVale McGee came away with the six most lucrative contracts that summer, as our free agent tracker shows. Times have changed not only for Williams but for the market, too.

That’s particularly so at the position Williams plays. George Hill and Goran Dragic were the point guards who received the next most lucrative contracts after Williams that summer, but it seems Dragic’s value has seemingly leapfrogged that of Williams. Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Jeff Teague, Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Ty Lawson, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Jennings, Brandon Knight and Jrue Holiday are others who’ve improved their games since Williams signed his contract. That lengthy list only encompasses players who were in the NBA the season before Williams signed, so it doesn’t include Damian Lillard, whom the Blazers drafted in 2012 using a pick they acquired from the Nets in exchange for Gerald Wallace.

It isn’t just that Williams is in his third straight season of averaging few points than the year before, as his scoring average has dipped from 21.0 points per game the season before he signed the contract to 12.9 PPG this year. The quality of point guards around the league has risen to unprecedented heights, and Williams, once in the conversation with Chris Paul as the league’s best at his position, is merely a run-of-the-mill producer at this point. His PER of 15.4, the lowest he’s put up since his rookie season, suggests that he’s above average at best.

He’s not even starting for the Nets at this point, although a slow recovery from injuries, which have largely been behind his decline, seems to be the chief reason why he’s been unable to take his job back from Jarrett Jack. Still, it’s surely disheartening for Nets GM Billy King to see Williams, who’s making more than $19.754MM this season and almost $21.043MM next year with a player option for a whopping $22.331MM-plus in 2016/17, come off the bench and play just 23.5 minutes per game when he does so. He’s appeared in only nine games since New Year’s Day, only furthering the decline in his trade value.

The notion of a Williams trade has been a legitimate one since at least this past May, when Howard Beck of Bleacher Report wrote that the Nets wouldn’t rule out a deal. Multiple reports followed in December indicating that the Nets are prepared to move on from Williams, as well as Lopez and Joe Johnson, with conflicting information about whether the team was initiating trade talks about the trio or merely open to the idea of parting with them. The most substantive recent discussions, by far, seemed to be with the Kings in December, but Sacramento’s insistence on taking back Mason Plumlee in such a deal put the kibosh on that. Brooklyn’s reluctance to part with Plumlee, whom the Kings were apparently demanding, shows that the team isn’t willing to take just any deal to move off Williams and his bloated contract, at least not yet. A source predicted to Marc Stein of ESPN.com that Williams would stay put, given the lack of attractive offers, as Stein wrote last month. Still, deadlines drive deals, as always, and so it’s conceivable that the Nets will revisit the Sacramento talks as next week’s trade deadline draws ever closer.

Brooklyn would like to trade two of Williams, Lopez and Johnson, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports wrote. Lopez seems easiest to trade, given his somewhat cheaper salary and the shorter length of his deal, which could be over at season’s end thanks to a player option. Johnson is locked in through next season at salaries between $3MM and $4MM more than Williams makes each year, but that deal is assured of ending a year before Williams’ might, and Williams is owed the most money of the trio.

Williams and Lopez both reportedly drew mention when the Nets and Celtics talked about a deal involving Rajon Rondo, before Boston sent Rondo to the Mavs instead. The Hornets, predictably, appeared to have no interest in Williams when they spoke with the Nets about Lance Stephenson in December, given the presence of Walker. Charlotte’s point guard has since gone down with injury, but Walker’s short-term absence probably won’t change the equation for the Hornets. The Rockets reportedly made preliminary inquiries about Williams a year ago, but the Nets were unwilling to give him up at that point. Now, it’s debatable whether the Rockets would be better off with Williams or incumbent Houston point guard Patrick Beverley regardless of the profound gap between what Williams is making and Beverley’s minimum salary. The Lakers and Knicks are in need of point guards and have cap flexibility to burn, but there have been no indications that either of them would want to forfeit that flexibility for Williams.

It’s tough to envision much of a market for Williams, particularly given his recent production. He went scoreless Monday, his third straight outing of five points or less.

“I have no idea [what’s wrong with Williams],” coach Lionel Hollins said after the game to reporters, including Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News. “I feel bad for the kid because he’s trying and it’s just not happening.”

Williams, at 30, is a “kid” compared to the 61-year-old Hollins, and while he’s certainly not young for an NBA player, he’s not especially old, either. The possibility exists that Williams will regain some of what he seems to have lost, but it seems out of the realm of possibility that he’ll ever be the player he was when he last put pen to paper on a contract. The market may well force the Nets to attach a first-round pick or an intriguing young player like Plumlee to a Williams deal if they’re to part ways with their highly paid point guard, and the Nets seem prepared to keeping paying Williams’ salary for a while longer if it comes to that. Deadlines often inspire moves that teams otherwise wouldn’t make, but Hollins doesn’t expect the team will swing a deal, and at least as far as Williams goes, the coach is probably right.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Thaddeus Young

February 9th, 2015 at 10:32pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Timberwolves expected to contend for a playoff spot this season, but injuries and disappointing play have dropped the team into the cellar of the Western Conference. The team is currently 11-41, which is good for second place in our Reverse Standings, thus guaranteeing the Wolves a top-five pick in the 2015 draft if they hold that position. The franchise has a great passing point guard in Ricky Rubio, a few nice long-term pieces in Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad and a potential star in Andrew Wiggins. The Timberwolves have a good nucleus and the future looks bright, but the light at the end of the tunnel is a few seasons down the road.

The team also employs several veterans, including Thaddeus Young. The Wolves chose to acquire Young instead of a top-10 protected first-round pick as part of last summer’s blockbuster Kevin Love trade. That pick, which originates from Miami, has a decent chance of ending up in the lottery. The decision was a blemish in an otherwise good trade, a rarity for a team dealing away a star player. The team simply overestimated the talent on its roster and thought it could make the playoffs this season.

Young thought he was coming into a situation where he could help a winning team, but instead, the forward will be on one of the worst teams in the league for the second consecutive season. Young subtly requested a trade from the Sixers last season, in part because of the team’s direction. Although Young hasn’t requested a trade this season and the Wolves haven’t implemented the same kind of tanking strategy as the Sixers, which I previously examined, the situation remains unappealing.

Young had a rocky start to the season, but he has played better since the start of 2015, averaging 14.3 points and 1.9 steals per game. His role has been overextended at times this year. As with many non-stars in the league, Young’s usage rate and player efficiency rating (PER) have an inverse relationship. When his usage rate stays below 20.0, the league average, the forward has experienced his best seasons in terms of PER, with his rating peaking at 18.93, which is well above league average. As his usage rage has risen about that figure, he has experienced his worst seasons in terms of PER, with his rating falling all the way to 14.90 this season. Still, the talent is there and most contending teams could always use another contributor come playoff time.

The Nets were interested in acquiring Young as part of a bigger trade that sent Brook Lopez, whose value I examined last month, to the Thunder. The Nets were interested in flipping Kendrick Perkins to the Wolves as part of a three-way trade, though it’s unclear if Minnesota would have required more to part with Young. Only netting a veteran on an expiring contract in exchange for Young would represent a severe drop-off in the 26-year-old’s value, considering what Minnesota passed up to obtain him. Last season, as our own Chuck Myron pointed out, Young’s value was at its peak. This season, his value might be at its low point.

Young will make slightly more than $9.41MM this season and more than $9.71MM next year. He has an early termination option at the end of this season that could void the final year of his deal, which could make a trade even more tricky. Getting a team to give up any sort of valuable asset for the forward could be problematic given his ability to hit the free agent market during the offseason. Any team that comes close to acquiring him would probably want to suss out which way he’s leaning on the option. Most suitors would probably shy away if they get the impression that he’ll opt out, although that’s just my speculation.

The Raptors could be a potential fit after they were “sniffing around” the league for an upgrade at the power forward position. Players such as Taj Gibson, David West and Kenneth Faried have been mentioned in connection with Toronto. Young would most likely cost Toronto much less to obtain than any of the trio but it is questionable whether Young is an upgrade over current starter Amir Johnson. Toronto would give Young a situation akin to what Jeff Green stepped into when he was traded to Memphis. Green has played well as complementary option and the Grizzlies have gone 12-2 since acquiring the Georgetown product.

Young has proven he can be a productive player when he has talent around him. Just this season, in games with Ricky Rubio in the lineup, Young has averaged 15.4 points per game while shooting 47.9% from the field and posted a plus-minus of plus 23. In games without Rubio in the lineup, Young has scored 14.1 points per game while shooting 43.7% from the field but has a plus-minus of minus 241.

Many teams would love to acquire the forward but only for the right price. Young’s value has taken a severe hit this season and it may be a great buy-low opportunity for some willing franchise. Yet, as is the case with the Nuggets and Arron Afflalo, if the Wolves can get a return that rivals what they gave up for Young, they would be wise to jump on that opportunity.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Goran Dragic

February 6th, 2015 at 2:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Suns stuck with Goran Dragic at the beginning of the 2013/14 season, when Marc Stein of ESPN.com wrote that there was a “growing expectation” around the league that Phoenix would try to unload Dragic in a move similar to their acquisition of a first-round pick for Marcin Gortat. Holding on to Dragic then proved wise, as he had a career year and nearly lifted the team into the playoffs in spite of the prolonged absence of Eric Bledsoe, who was supposed to supplant Dragic as the team’s No. 1 point guard. The Suns instead used them alongside each other when Bledsoe was healthy, and it worked well enough for GM Ryan McDonough and his staff to make a radical bet on the long-term feasibility of a roster heavy on point guards.

McDonough began the offseason with the selection of Tyler Ennis, a point guard from Syracuse who drew top-ten buzz last season, at No. 18 overall in the draft. He ended it with a five-year, $70MM commitment to Bledsoe. In between, he made a pair of moves that serve as mixed signals about Dragic’s long-term future in Phoenix. McDonough and the Suns signed-and-traded for Isaiah Thomas, giving him a four-year deal worth slightly more than $27MM. They also signed Zoran Dragic, Goran’s brother, to a pact with two seasons of fully guaranteed salary. The Pacers and Kings were seemingly Phoenix’s strongest competitors among the several who gave chase for Zoran, but the 25-year-old shooting guard isn’t regarded as a future NBA star, and he’s made it off the bench for a total of 12 minutes all season. Goran insists that he didn’t push the Suns to sign his brother, but it’s clear that Goran was the impetus for the move, even if only unwittingly so. Zoran’s presence on the roster seems an enticement for Goran to re-sign when the All-NBA Third Teamer turns down his $7.5MM player option for next season, as he plans to do.

Still, Thomas is quite possibly the third starting-caliber point guard on the roster behind Goran Dragic and Bledsoe, and Ennis looms as a potential fourth. That, put together with Dragic’s looming free agency, apparently convinced the Suns to become willing to trade Dragic earlier this season. Yet another report indicated that McDonough and company would be more willing to part with Thomas or Bledsoe than Dragic. The Suns, it seems, continue to confound.

Dragic surprised last season enough to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, but his numbers are off this year. Still, his 16.3 points per game this season would be a career high if not for last season’s 20.3 PPG. His assists are somewhat predictably down to 4.0 per game, and a career-low 4.4 per 36 minutes, as he contends for control of the ball with Bledsoe, Thomas and others. His PER has dipped to 16.7, his lowest mark since he became a full-time starter, and another advanced metric, ESPN’s real plus-minus, shows him with a negative rating and at No. 29 among the league’s shooting guards, the position at which Dragic has seen the most time this season. The Suns are nonetheless 4.0 points per 100 possessions better with Dragic on the floor this season versus when he sits, according to NBA.com.

The conflicting numbers hint that Phoenix might not be the most fertile ground for his game, given the backcourt crowding, and surely Dragic and agent Rade Filipovich know that he could be putting up better numbers elsewhere. Dragic reportedly intends to take a broad look at free agency and isn’t committing himself to the Suns, so Phoenix will have to sell him on the idea of returning when they pitch the long-term deal they’ve apparently been planning for him. McDonough has said he’ll take care of Dragic when the time comes, but Dragic has seemingly hinted that he’s not so willing to tether himself to the Suns for the long term. Still, a source recently told Jorge Sierra of HoopsHype that Dragic feels more comfortable in Phoenix this year than he did last year, and that he’s nonetheless confident that he’ll see strong offers in free agency this summer.

The Rockets and Lakers have already been linked to Dragic as potential free agent suitors, and reports since then have suggested that those teams would also like to trade for him. The Lakers have a glaring hole at point guard, where only 2014 second-round pick Jordan Clarkson is signed past this season, but Sean Deveney of The Sporting News wrote this week that the team lacks the assets necessary to swing a deal for Dragic. The Lakers already owe the Suns their first-round pick this year as long as it’s not in the top five, and unless the team was willing to part with Julius Randle, L.A’s lottery pick from this past year, it’s tough to see how the Lakers could wind up with Dragic by the deadline.

The Rockets’ cupboard is more well-stocked, but they’ve come up short in previous attempts to trade for Dragic this season, as Jeff Zillgitt and Sam Amick of USA Today wrote earlier this year. Houston’s front office is familiar with Dragic from his year and a half with the team in between his stints in Phoenix. Yet unless the Suns are deeply concerned that they’ll lose him to Houston in free agency, it seems logical that McDonough would have reservations about trading him to another Western Conference playoff contender without receiving strong value in return. Houston has a pair of former first-round picks at power forward in Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones, the position Josh Smith also occupies. The Rockets could toss in Kostas Papanikolaou and a few minimum-salaried players for salary-matching purposes to send one of them off to Phoenix, should the Suns have interest. However, the loss of Dwight Howard for at least a month complicates any move involving Houston’s frontcourt.

There are no guarantees that Dragic will play for any team beyond the end of the season, so it’s possible his status as a rental lowers his trade value. Surely any team that comes close to trading for him will try to gather intel about whether he’d like to re-sign with them this summer, even though they wouldn’t be able to speak with him directly before a trade became official. Much is unknown regarding Dragic and Phoenix’s experiment with multiple point guards, and Phoenix is just a game in front of New Orleans and a game and a half up on Oklahoma City for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The deadline will be a key pivot point in the short term and long term for McDonough, and what he does with Dragic between now and February 19th will say plenty about where the team heads next.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Norris Cole

January 30th, 2015 at 3:45pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Heat were hearing from no shortage of teams interested in trading for Norris Cole two days shy of last year’s trade deadline, but Miami issued a firm “no” to his suitors, as Shams Charania of RealGM reported then. It appears the point guard is again drawing a heavy volume of interest, but so much has changed in the past 11 and a half months.

Circumstances surrounding the Heat are certainly much different. LeBron James left town this summer, taking any reasonable shot at winning the championship with him. Cleveland is where James once more resides, and it’s also where Cole went to college. Cole hired Cleveland-based Rich Paul of Klutch Sports this summer, signing up with the same agent who represents James. A few months later, Cole and the Heat failed to come to terms on a rookie scale extension, setting him up for restricted free agency in the summer ahead.

It’d be a stretch to presume that Cole would have signed an extension if he were still with former agent Joel Bell or any representative other than Paul. Cole had ascended into the Heat’s starting lineup at the start of the season, but rookie scale extensions rarely happen for players who don’t have at least some measure of star potential, and Cole doesn’t fit the bill. Plus, the Heat have been wary of committing any money beyond next season, so they probably would have been reluctant to do an extension even with a player a step or two above Cole’s level.

The lack of an extension nonetheless seemed another sign that Cole isn’t a permanent fixture on South Beach, an idea further emphasized in the wake of a report around draft time that the Heat were dangling Cole in trade talk. Miami came away from the draft with No. 24 overall pick Shabazz Napier, a point guard who was a LeBron favorite. The Heat also re-signed Mario Chalmers later in the offseason, setting themselves up with depth at the point guard position that perhaps made Cole expendable. It hardly seemed that way earlier this season, when Cole became a starter, at times sharing the backcourt with Dwyane Wade, or Chalmers if Wade was injured. But the starting role didn’t last. Cole, who’d shot 34.9% from three-point range the previous season, saw that rate dip to just 24.6% in games he started. The Heat naturally struggled to win nearly as much as they did when James was around, but by Christmas, Cole was out of the starting lineup. His outside shot has only been worse since his benching. He’s connected on only 23.5% of his three-point attempts as a reserve for a team that no longer has the outside shooting it did during the LeBron era.

Cole was a healthy scratch Sunday against the Bulls, but he returned to play 25 minutes off the bench Tuesday in the absence of Wade, who might be out of action for a few weeks. Regardless, Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio reported earlier this month that Cole is once more on the block, writing that the 26-year-old “pretty much knows” the Heat want to trade him. That came shortly after Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports wrote that Miami had made Cole part of a proposal to the Nets for Brook Lopez. Riley last week denied that he made such a proposal and insisted that the Heat haven’t offered any players to anyone. However, he did indicate that he would listen, and a couple of teams soon found themselves in need of a point guard.

The Hornets have Cole and Ramon Sessions on their radar, Wojnarowski reported Monday in the wake of an injury to Kemba Walker that will keep him out at least six weeks. The Pistons are looking into trading for Cole, too, now that Brandon Jennings is lost for the year, as Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group wrote Tuesday. Still, neither club appears anxious to give up much in return to plug their gaps, and both are competing with the Heat for playoff position in the Eastern Conference.

The prospect of trading Cole to the Pistons or the Hornets might be more palatable to Riley than trading him to Cleveland. The Cavs have never been linked to Cole as a legitimate trade suitor, though the Cavs are reportedly seeking a backup point guard as well. They had a brief flirtation with the idea of signing Jordan Farmar before backing off, and they’re among the clubs interested in signing Will Bynum once he makes it back from China, according to reports. The Cavs are more likely to sign a point guard than trade for one, Amico wrote, but the notion that Cleveland would seek to fill a need with a client of the agent who represents LeBron would certainly be a logical idea.

It’d also be reasonable to suspect that Riley has no desire to help James win a championship so soon after he left Miami, so perhaps the Cavs are focusing on other targets for good reason. In any case, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Riley try to swing a deal to reap some sort of return for Cole, given his expiring contract. The Heat have the right to match offers when he becomes a free agent this summer if they extend a qualifying offer, which will be worth close to $3.037MM assuming he doesn’t return to the starting lineup and trigger the starter criteria. Chances are that any team interested in Cole this summer knows that the Heat don’t want to commit money past next season, so a multiyear offer sheet might make it easy to pry him away.

There’s a market for Cole now, even as his shot has deserted him, and Riley and the Heat may not have a better chance to make the most of one of the remaining vestiges of their decorated LeBron era. Trading Cole to the Cavs or one of the other Eastern Conference playoff contenders might not be an exciting proposition, but unless the Heat can find a Western Conference team willing to give them a better return, Riley ought to swallow hard and make the move.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Michael Carter-Williams

January 28th, 2015 at 7:58pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Usually, when players in the early years of their rookie deals find themselves in trade discussions, it’s typically because there’s a lack of production or the player is a poor fit on his team. Michael Carter-Williams doesn’t go into either of those categories but the Sixers aren’t operating like a typical NBA franchise. The team’s plans to obtain superstar-caliber players via high lottery picks are well-documented, and Philadelphia seems in no rush to assemble a winning team that doesn’t have a few of these sorts of players on it.

It’s unclear whether the Sixers view Carter-Williams as a rising superstar. Some team officials reportedly don’t view him as part of the club’s long-term plan. The point guard has impressed during his first season and a half, but there are major concerns about whether he can lead a contending team. Carter-Williams owns a .381/.250/.642 slash line this season, which ranks 71st, 71st, and 79th respectively among all point guards in the league. His shooting has been historically poor for a player getting starter’s minutes, and that kind of production can seriously hinder a team’s ability to win games.

Philadelphia is on a mission to win championships in the long run, but it’s going to take more than improved shooting from MCW to get there. While the team’s strategy to aim for superstars in order to win titles seems foolproof, only one team per year actually comes away with the Larry O’Brien trophy. Only once every few years does a team come away with a transcendent talent in the top of the draft. For every LeBron James or Anthony Davis, there are several players whose ceilings aren’t in that ballpark.

The Magic are a prime example of what can happen when a franchise accumulates high draft picks without obtaining a transcendent talent. Orlando had a top five pick in the last two drafts and traded up to get another top 10 pick last June. Those selections have netted the team Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton. Those are nice players and the Magic have a good nucleus, but they lack a game-changer who will keep them dispatched as a perennial contender. Without some good luck, Orlando won’t be able to grab a elite prospect in this year’s draft, and they won’t sniff the postseason this year, either. MCW isn’t that much better than most of the players on Orlando’s roster and the Sixers want to avoid being stuck with that fate.

By trading Carter-Williams, the Sixers can dwell in the very bottom of the league’s cellar and prolong their rebuilding project, thus increasing the chances of obtaining a transcendent talent. The team plan appears to be lather, rinse, repeat until that special talent becomes available or ownership decides it wants to put a competent team on the floor. There has never been an ownership group willing to oversee this kind of rebuild in NBA history, but as long as attendance in Philadelphia continues to show a slight year over year rise, I would suspect that executives stay on course with the franchise’s current plan.

Finding the right trade partner could be a tricky obstacle, because Philly is apparently holding out for a high return. There were rumors that the Lakers were interested in giving up the No. 7 overall pick in last summer’s draft as well as Steve Nash’s expiring contract for Carter-Williams and Thaddeus Young. The Sixers didn’t believe that was enough for the reigning Rookie of the Year and they might be hard pressed to find a team with a better offer. MCW’s value comes from his play being worth more than his contract during the next few seasons. The point guard will make roughly $2.3MM this season and slightly less than $5.6MM combined over the next two years.

Production at that cost is a real asset in the NBA, but most of the teams that are set to have the sort of high draft pick that Philly covets, like the Wolves and the Celtics, won’t be inclined to trade those picks. They’re pursuing their own rebuilding efforts that most likely won’t come to fruition over the next two years. Teams that are pressing harder to win now, like the Knicks and the Lakers, don’t have the enough desirable assets to spare in order to make a trade worthwhile for both parties. Carter-Williams would be a great fit on a few contending teams, including the Clippers or Cavs. These teams would love the opportunity to upgrade their backup point guard situations with starter talent without paying a starter’s contract. However, these teams probably lack the willingness to give up assets that the Sixers would demand.

A franchise with the right elements to be a trade partner for Carter-Williams might be the Kings. They are currently eighth overall in our Reverse Standings, meaning if the season ended today, they would likely have a top 10 pick. They also have an owner who wants to win now, and while the team hasn’t traded any top draft picks during its quest to contend, no player whom Sacramento acquired over the last several years possesses quite the trade value that Carter-Williams has. Rudy Gay might be a better player but because of his oversized contract, the Kings only had to give up multiple role players to acquire him. Carter-Williams’ contract is very team friendly and I would speculate that it would take the Kings dangling their 2015 first-round pick plus someone like Derrick Williams, who apparently is on the trade block, to intrigue the Sixers.

Indiana makes another logical destination for the point guard. The Pacers may not be in position to qualify for the playoffs this season, but with a healthy Paul George on the court next year, the team will be a contender again. The Pacers currently have the sixth worst record, and without some luck, they will not have a top-five draft pick. History suggests that players who are drafted outside the top five are much less likely to become star-caliber players than those who are drafted in the top five. With the Pacers’ current situation, they might be more inclined to trade their pick for an established, above-average talent rather than gambling for a star and ending up without a player who can contribute.

The Sixers are more than willing to gamble on obtaining a superstar. Carter-Williams has established that he belongs in an NBA rotation and he can contribute right now if put in the right situation. Many teams could use an above-average player, but it’s easier for those would-be trade partners of the Sixers to find those players than it is for them to find superstars. MCW could certainly improve his shooting and start showing more consistent flashes of being a star player, similar to how Jason Kidd improved as his career progressed. Yet if the Sixers don’t believe that is going to happen, now is the time to deal Carter-Williams, while his trade value remains at its highest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Arron Afflalo

January 26th, 2015 at 3:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

Arron Afflalo has long maintained solid production that lacks sizzle, and he’s been one of the NBA’s most reasonably priced players for most of the time that he’s been on the five-year, $38MM deal he signed with the Nuggets shortly after the lockout. He’s the sort of guy teams like to have around but wouldn’t mind parting with for the right return in the right circumstances. So, it’s not altogether surprising that he’s ping-ponged from the Nuggets to the Magic and back to the Nuggets while the contract’s been in effect, nor is it a shock to see reports that Denver is open to dealing him and that multiple teams have called the Nuggets about trading for him.

The end of Afflalo’s contract is in sight, as Afflalo holds a $7.5MM player option for next season, the final year of the deal. He sounded this past summer as though he intended to turn down the option and hit free agency at the end of this season, as Chris Dempsey of The Denver Post observed. Any team interested in trading for him will surely try to suss out his feelings about that option now. It wouldn’t be altogether difficult to find a replacement of Afflalo’s caliber were he to opt out and sign elsewhere, but if a team goes in believing he’ll come off the books this summer and he doesn’t, that extra $7.5MM could be crippling to a front office’s plans. The Hornets, one of the teams that Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com identified as a suitor for the 29-year-old shooting guard, already have uncertainties in the form of Al Jefferson‘s $13.5MM player option and a $6MM player option for Gerald Henderson. They’d have roughly $20MM in cap flexibility against a projected $66.5MM cap if both opt out, and virtually no cap flexibility if they both opt in. Trading for Afflalo would set Charlotte up for a worst-case scenario in which Henderson and Afflalo opt in and Jefferson opts out, leaving the team without the financial wherewithal to replace Jefferson if he signs elsewhere.

The Heat, another team Shelburne says has called about Afflalo, find themselves in a similar position with about $41.2MM in commitments, not including more than $28MM in player options for Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Danny Granger. Still, Miami’s primary focus is the summer of 2016, when Afflalo’s deal will be done regardless. The Clippers are also in the hunt, according to the ESPNLosAngeles.com scribe, but they have little chance of opening up any significant cap room in the offseason ahead, though Afflalo’s option would carry potential luxury tax consequences, particularly since the Clips are in line to pay the tax for the second year in a row this season. Another taxpaying year in 2015/16 would set the team up to pay the dreaded repeat-offender tax penalties that would test even Steve Ballmer’s deep pockets.

Afflalo’s play on the court makes him an intriguing option for a contender looking for a short-term upgrade on the wing. His scoring is off, predictably, on the Nuggets this year after the rebuilding Magic featured him in their offense the previous two seasons. His 15.2 points per game are identical to his scoring average from his last season in Denver, before the Nuggets sent him out in the 2012 Dwight Howard–Andrew Bynum–Andre Iguodala four-team blockbuster. More disconcerting is his three-point shooting. He’s taking more three-pointers than ever, despite his accuracy having fallen off last year’s 42.7% clip. He’s at 34.0% this season, below his 38.6% career rate. That suggests an uptick is in order for the second half of the season, particularly if he’s playing on a contender with better pieces to surround him than the Nuggets possess. Still, his increased emphasis on the three-point shot has cut his free-throw attempts to 3.1 per game, his fewest in four years, indicating that he’s more hesitant to drive and create contact.

John Hollinger’s PER metric has never been kind to Afflalo, who last year managed a number better than 15.0, the mark of an average player, for the first time. His PER has dropped from 16.0 this season to this year’s 12.1, a number beneath even his modest career 12.8 PER. Still, that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Nuggets are 4.5 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Afflalo in the lineup compared to when he sits, per NBA.com, and only 0.6 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor. That net rating of 3.9 is almost equivalent to the distance of 4.0 between the Nuggets and Cavs in net rating this season, NBA.com shows.

It’d be far-fetched to suggest that Afflalo could turn a mediocre team into a contender, but he could help the Hornets and Heat make the playoffs and perhaps push the Clippers over the top in the Western Conference title race. Much depends on what cost Nuggets GM Tim Connelly would demand in return. Connelly reaped two first-round picks when they relinquished Timofey Mozgov, so he could be excused for setting a high price. Teams have nearly sworn off trading first-round picks in-season the past two years, but this year, they’re changing hands with more frequency.

Afflalo came cheaply this summer, when Denver sent little-used Evan Fournier and a late second-round pick to Orlando for him, and while Fournier has blossomed with the Magic, the trade looked quite favorable for Connelly at the time. It isn’t just Fournier’s play that’s haunting Connelly now; other GMs will surely wonder why he might ask for more in return for Afflalo than he got, particularly if the shooting guard’s numbers are down this year. Still, desperation drives deals, as Connelly surely knows from Cleveland’s desire for Mozgov, and as the trade deadline approaches and playoff races become more well-defined, Afflalo’s price will surely escalate. It’d still be difficult for the Nuggets to come away with another first-rounder here, but if they can find a younger replacement with the promise of someday playing at or near Fournier’s level, Denver would be wise to bite.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Jose Calderon

January 23rd, 2015 at 8:06pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The Knicks believed that they had solved a number of their issues with one trade this past summer. That’s when newly appointed team president Phil Jackson dealt Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton to the Mavericks for Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, and two 2014 second round draft picks. But as was stated in a proverb that the poet Robert Burns first wrote and that John Steinbeck later made popular, the best laid schemes of mice and men often go awry.

New York’s Achilles’ heel during the 2013/14 campaign was its point guard play, or to be specific, a complete lack of production from the group it threw out on the floor to facilitate the offense. The Knicks as a team averaged a meager 20.0 assists per game, which was good for the third lowest total in the league. Felton was one of the worst starting point guards in the league statistically, and his off the court issues involving the possession of a handgun certainly didn’t help raise his stock around the league and with the team.

With Jackson needing to live up to whatever promises that he may have made to Carmelo Anthony in order to get him to re-sign with the Knicks, the Zen Master must have figured adding a more competent ball distributor in Calderon was a good place to begin. While I was certainly a fan of the team cutting ties with Felton, I will point out that he actually had a higher assist per game average during the 2013/14 campaign (5.7) than Calderon did (4.7) with the Mavs that same season.

But Calderon was also brought in to help spread the floor with his outside shooting, something that Felton didn’t provide for the Knicks. Also, with the team switching to the triangle offense, the change in scheme was supposed to remove part of the need for a point guard to rack up gaudy assist totals in order to be successful. The Spaniard is also known as a good teammate, and was looked at as a player who could help provide veteran leadership, something that the Knicks sorely missed with the retirement of Jason Kidd and the departure of Kenyon Martin.

Unfortunately for the Knicks and their fans, Calderon has not produced at the level that the team had hoped for when it acquired him. In 30 appearances this season, Calderon has averaged 9.3 points, his lowest total since the 2006/07 season, a career-low 4.3 assists, and he’s shooting a career-worst 39.9% from the field. He has looked a step slow on both ends of the court, and it’s unclear if age is finally catching up with him, if Calderon’s apathetic due to New York’s lost season, or if he’s still hampered by the calf injury that he suffered during the preseason.

With the Knicks seemingly in full on tank-mode for the remainder of the season, a veteran point guard like Calderon is an expendable piece. Jackson would probably love to clear the remaining two years on Calderon’s contract off of the team’s books to provide the franchise with additional flexibility. New York has been reported to be actively shopping Calderon along with some of the other remaining veterans on its squad. The Spaniard is making $7,097,191 this season, due to make $7,402,812 in 2015/16, and owed $7,708,427 for 2016/17. Those numbers don’t necessarily make Calderon untradeable, but the trick for Jackson will be finding a deal for players with expiring contracts so that he can maximize New York’s cap space to pursue free agents over the next two summers.

Despite Calderon’s lack of production this season and not quite desirable contract, there still should be a market for his services, though it is highly unlikely that he would bring the Knicks much of a return on his own. Unless Calderon is packaged with other players and draft picks, any deal would become more of a salary dump than a franchise changing transaction. But dealing players in return for little more than future cap space is something that seems to fit with the current Knicks philosophy, so there shouldn’t be an issue there.

While no teams have been specifically reported to be interested in acquiring Calderon, here are a few franchises that could be potential fits for a deal. It should be noted that these are purely my speculation, and not based off of any published reports:

Oklahoma City: The Thunder could use a veteran like Calderon to add backcourt depth, especially with the team’s injury history. The acquisition of Dion Waiters, who can play the point if required to, lessens the Thunder’s need at this position. But if OKC decides that it has little chance or desire to re-sign Reggie Jackson, then GM Sam Presti could decide to unload him, though the Knicks probably don’t have enough in addition to Calderon to offer for a talent such as Jackson to close a deal without getting a third team involved.
Chicago: The Bulls appear to be set for the moment at point guard, with Derrick Rose working his way back into form, and Aaron Brooks providing solid production as a backup. But these are the Bulls, who are seemingly always dealing with injuries, especially late in the season. Calderon would provide extra insurance in the event of another injury to Rose or Kirk Hinrich, but fitting his salary in would be quite a challenge.
Boston: The Celtics have reportedly let teams know that they would be willing to take on cap-eating contracts, and they could use more depth at point guard in the wake of the Rajon Rondo trade. This would make Boston a logical trade partner, but the Knicks lack the draft picks that the Celtics would likely require in order to take on a contract such as Calderon’s. But if president of basketball operations Danny Ainge decides that rookie Marcus Smart isn’t ready to lead the team, a trade for Calderon could become a very real possibility.
Philadelphia: The Sixers have become the salary cap dumping ground for the league, and with the team not sold on the long-term viability of Michael Carter-Williams, Calderon would seem like a potential fit. Couple that with Tony Wroten‘s injury, and it’s clear that the Sixers have a definite need at the one spot. But with Philly GM Sam Hinkie determined to collect every second round draft pick between now and 2020, the Knicks would have an issue scratching that itch for the Sixers. It’s possible that Jackson could flip Pablo Prigioni for a second-rounder, as he is reportedly seeking to do. But it’s not clear if that would be enough to get Hinkie to bite on two more seasons of being committed to Calderon.
Cleveland: The Cavaliers have a definite need for a stronger backup at the point. Matthew Dellavedova is a nice player, but if Kyrie Irving is injured, Dellavedova’s not likely to inspire confidence in a deep playoff run as a starter. Cleveland may not be too keen on taking on the final two years of Calderon’s deal, but with the franchise in win-now mode, it’s a deal it would likely consider pulling the trigger on.
Miami: The Heat would be a longshot here, but the team has a definite need for an upgrade at the point guard spot. Miami is in an odd position, with the team needing to rebuild after LeBron James‘ departure while having a veteran-laden roster. Calderon could step right in and provide an immediate upgrade, but the length of his deal could scare the team off from pursuing a trade with the Knicks.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers could absolutely use a player like Calderon, and would be able to deal the expiring contract of Steve Nash as part of a package to obtain him. Los Angeles is still likely entertaining thoughts of inking Rondo this offseason, though that is far from a done deal, especially since Rondo appears to be settling in nicely in Dallas. With Kobe Bryant in the waning years of his career, Calderon could be seen by GM Mitch Kupchak as a player who could bolster the roster and allow him to concentrate on adding much needed frontcourt talent this offseason.

While Calderon’s trade value has taken a definite hit since the beginning of the season, he’s a player who still could help a number of teams. I also believe that a change of scenery, and the chance at playing for a playoff team, could revitalize his play. Calderon is one of the Knicks’ most tradeable of assets currently, though his contract length will be a hurdle that Jackson will need to overcome in order to remove Calderon from the team’s balance sheet. The veteran point guard is likely to be the subject of numerous rumors leading up to the deadline, and if he still remains a Knick beyond that date, it’s because Jackson couldn’t find a taker, and not because he was unwilling to part with Calderon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate Series

January 21st, 2015 at 8:58am CST by Chuck Myron

The February 19th trade deadline is less than a month away, and there’s already been plenty of movement. It figures that there will be plenty more to come, and Hoops Rumors is taking an in-depth look at players who seem like decent bets to change teams. These aren’t players who necessarily will be traded by the deadline, but there’s a distinct possibility that their teams will at least listen to offers if not actively shop them in the coming weeks.

Our Trade Candidate pieces explore why a trade might happen, the likelihood of a deal going down, and potential suitors, along with other relevant details. Last season, we profiled guys who were moved by the deadline, such as Danny Granger, Evan Turner and Andre Miller, along with others who were eventually dealt over the summer, including Arron Afflalo, Thaddeus Young, and Omer Asik.

A complete list of the players we’ve examined so far during the 2014/15 season is below, in alphabetical order. This list can be found in our right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” and will continue to be updated until the deadline:

Trade Candidate: Reggie Jackson

January 20th, 2015 at 3:48pm CST by Chuck Myron

So much of the intrigue surrounding Reggie Jackson is about potential. Indeed, Jackson’s production alone wouldn’t have prompted some teams around the league to believe that the point guard would receive offers of between $13MM and $14MM a year in restricted free agency this summer, as Adrian Wojnarowski reported at the start of the season. The 24-year-old Jackson believes he can become a star, and evidently he’s not alone. The questions the Thunder face are whether there’s truly enough evidence to suggest he’ll do that, and whether it’s worth paying a premium to see if there’s any way that Jackson and Russell Westbrook can co-exist as elite performers in the backcourt. If GM Sam Presti concludes the answer to either is a no, he’ll encounter the sticky quandary of whether it’s worth keeping him for a run at a title this spring with the knowledge that he can sign elsewhere come July. One of those teams that’s so high on Jackson could come forward with an trade offer that affords the Thunder with enough compensation in return for Jackson to make Presti think long and hard about trading yet another highly regarded backcourt reserve.

The James Harden trade haunts the Thunder, though few would have predicted that Harden would have become quite the prolific scorer he is now for the Rockets. Westbrook didn’t miss a single game during Harden’s tenure with the Thunder, but he’s missed 59 combined regular season and playoff games with Jackson on the team, giving Hinkie a glimpse at Jackson in the lead role that he never had with Harden. The Thunder are 31-27 all-time when Jackson plays and Westbrook doesn’t, though to be fair, Kevin Durant wasn’t around for all of those games, and with a healthy Durant in tow, Oklahoma City was 25-11 with Jackson and without Westbrook last season.

Still, the Thunder would almost certainly plan on having both Jackson and Westbrook around if they were to retain Jackson long-term, since Westbrook’s deal doesn’t expire until the summer of 2017. The Thunder have a net rating of plus 4.4 when Westbrook and Jackson share the floor this season, according NBA.com, and they’re only a plus 1.0 as a team, though the latter figure includes the prolonged absences of Westbrook and Durant. Last season, the Thunder were a plus 7.1 and an eye-popping plus 17.8 with Westbrook and Jackson together, though that’s a sample size of less than 400 total minutes. They only played 161 minutes together across 82 games in 2012/13, and the Thunder’s net rating with both of them on the floor was plus 7.5 compared to plus 11.0 overall.

The track record isn’t vast, and it isn’t conclusive, although Jackson figured Presti had already drawn his conclusion when the point guard thought he was part of the Thunder’s three-team trade with the Cavs and Knicks amid erroneous reports. That swap nonetheless had significant implications for Jackson, since it brought Dion Waiters to town. Waiters, though more of a shooting guard, seems primed to take over the sixth-man role that Jackson has held, and there’s been speculation that Waiters, who’ll still be under his rookie scale contract in 2015/16, is insurance in case Jackson bolts. Durant had some harsh words in response to the assertion that he should help Jackson adjust in the wake of the trade, implying that Jackson should take a mature, professional approach to the reality that confronts him. The most recent dispatch regarding the ever-headstrong Jackson indicates that the Aaron Mintz client is open to signing his qualifying offer this summer to reach unrestricted free agency in 2016.

That wouldn’t necessarily be the worst-case scenario for the Thunder, since that would keep Jackson around for no more than $4.434MM next season and align his free agency with Durant’s, allowing the team cap flexibility in case Durant leaves. Still, the threat of a bloated, player-friendly offer sheet from another team looms, even if the Thunder threaten to match any offer, so Presti can’t count on having Jackson back under any particular terms.

The Knicks, who tried to make Jackson part of the three-team swap, are expected to again attempt to acquire him, as Ken Berger of CBSSports.com recently reported, adding that the Thunder are resisting the idea of trading the guard. That could change as the February 19th deadline draws closer, though the Knicks probably don’t have the assets to make it worth Oklahoma City’s while. Another large-market team with a need at point guard possesses a few more assets, but the Lakers don’t appear to be especially likely trading partners, particularly if it would mean helping out the Thunder, a team the Lakers envision competing with should they return to contention anytime soon. The Rockets are without a long-term solution at the point, but the optics of trading another sixth man to GM Daryl Morey‘s team would probably be too much for Presti to bear.

The Nets, with whom the Thunder had serious talks regarding Brook Lopez, provide a better avenue. Brooklyn reportedly left negotiations with Oklahoma City unwilling to give up Lopez for a package with Kendrick Perkins as its centerpiece, but Jackson and Perkins together might make the Nets think again. Jackson would serve as a ready replacement at point guard should the team trade Deron Williams, and the Thunder could upgrade without tinkering with their starting five. Still, Jackson’s name hasn’t come up in Lopez talks, so it seems Presti would first have to warm to the idea.

The sticking point for the Nets would probably involve Jackson’s upcoming free agency and the amount of money it would take to retain him, and that’d surely be an issue in any trade the Thunder might explore involving him. It’s tough to get a fair return for a player who might be no more than a rental, even given the right to match offers that’s incumbent with restricted free agency. That’s why Presti has to weigh the needs of maximizing this season against maximizing what he can reap from Jackson in a trade. Oklahoma City still hasn’t risen into the top eight teams in the Western Conference, and while any franchise with Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka has a realistic shot at a title, it’d be an especially difficult task this time around. The Thunder are probably better off taking back a decent return for Jackson if there’s one to be had and if it can enhance their chances of winning it all next season, even if it makes their title odds that much longer for this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Brook Lopez

January 17th, 2015 at 9:11pm CST by ChrisCrouse

With a record of 17-24, the season for the Nets doesn’t look promising. The 2014/15 season is the last year for the team to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy in order to fulfill owner Mikhail Prokhorov’s promise of delivering a championship within five years of buying the franchise. The Nets have made numerous moves to put a contending team on the floor that mortgaged the future, including the 2011 trade for Deron Williams and the 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry and Paul Pierce. As a result of those deals, the 2019 draft will be the next time Brooklyn controls its own first-round pick. Prokhorov was rumored to be looking to sell the team in light of the Clippers’ record-setting $2 billion dollar price tag and the Nets have made their high-priced stars available with the intention of trimming expenses to make the franchise more financially attractive.

With Deron Williams’ latest injury and Joe Johnson’s massive contract, which has two years and almost $48.1MM remaining, including this season, Brook Lopez seems the most likely of the Nets’ stars to be traded. Lopez will make in excess of $15.7MM this year and has a player option worth more than $16.7MM for the 2015/16 season. Uncertainty surrounding his decision to pick up his option will be a potential speedbump for teams looking to acquire the seventh-year veteran, and his injury history might scare some front offices away as well.

However, the market for young centers who can defend the rim is particularly strong and based on the two first round picks that the Nuggets received for parting with Timofey Mozgov, the Nets brass should be salivating at the chance to move Lopez in this environment. Lopez ranked second in the league last season in points saved per 36 minutes, a metric developed by Seth Partnow to identify rim protection. Mozgov ranked 11th last season and his production has slipped all the way to 33rd this year while Lopez has sustained his success on defense this season, ranking fourth best in the league.

That being said, what Brooklyn can net by trading Lopez is only what another team is willing to offer for his services. Although Lopez is widely perceived as the better player, the Nets might need to temper their expectations when comparing the potential return they can reasonably get for him to the bounty that the Nuggets received for their big man. Mozgov only makes about one-third ($4.65MM this season) of Lopez’s salary and the Nets will be hard-pressed to find a team as desperate for a rim protector as the Cavs were.

The Nets shouldn’t be desperate in their attempts to find a trade partner. The team can look across town at the Knicks, as their summer trade of Tyson Chandler provides a cautionary tale. New York reportedly badly wanted to obtain picks in the 2014 draft, and they settled for the best deal at that point. The Knicks traded Chandler, along with Raymond Felton, to the Mavs for Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington and two second-round picks. Dalembert and Ellington have since been waived and the team is reportedly shopping Calderon, who was the only player on Knicks’ side of the deal who was projected to be a starter for a contending team. Still, it’s unknown what the Knicks could have obtained if they were a bit more patient. Chandler, like Lopez, is a rim protector with an injury history, but Lopez is six years younger than the former Defensive Player of the Year. The value of the haul that the Nets would receive for Lopez would likely fall between what the Knicks acquired for Chandler and what the Nuggets received for Mozgov.

Again, the most important ingredient in a trade is finding a suitor. Phoenix would have been a good destination for Lopez based on its salary cap situation and need for an interior presence but the Suns satisfied their need with their trade for Brandan Wright last week. This week, the Thunder were discussing a trade that would have sent Lopez to Oklahoma City in exchange for Kendrick Perkins, as well as a three-team scenario that involved Lance Stephenson going from the Hornets to the Nets. Talks between the teams’ executives have stalled because the Nets have major concerns about taking back Stephenson and don’t want to make a salary-shedding deal that would feature Perkins as the main piece going to Brooklyn. Lopez himself was rumored to be upset about the potential trade.

The Celtics were reportedly interested in acquiring Lopez as part of a Rajon Rondo deal, but it’s unclear whether they remain interested after trading the point guard last month. Lopez has just as much potential if not more than any player on Boston’s roster, but his large contract would take away some of the team’s flexibility, something president of basketball operations Danny Ainge might be hesitant to do at this time. Any deal would most likely hinge on getting Lopez to at least verbally commit past the 2014/15 season, and it’s uncertain whether the Stanford product is interested in joining a team that is not looking to contend right away.

Another potential suitor that will at least be interested in contending next season is the Lakers. Los Angeles may be struggling this season, but all signs point away from any sort of rebuild. The team reportedly dangled a first-round pick last month in an attempt to acquire Rondo and although that pick (originally from Houston) is projected to be a late first-rounder, the Nets would most likely be interested in it, though that’s just my speculation. The Lakers have a pair of point guards with expiring contracts (Steve Nash with a more than $9.7MM cap hit and Jeremy Lin with a more than $8.4MM cap hit) that would allow the Nets to definitively lower their team salary next season.The Lakers also have an intriguing big man in Jordan Hill, but he essentially has a de facto no trade clause in his contract because the deal he signed is technically a one-year pact. If Hill were to agree to be traded to Brooklyn, the Nets would bring back a productive center and possibly still be in contention for a lower playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.

Lopez is a good scorer, averaging 14.8 points per game this season, and he provides elite rim protection as well. The center boasts a player efficiency rating of 19.23, which is above league average. Seven-footers with these skills are hard to come by and the current market for centers makes having one very favorable. The Nets shouldn’t have an issue finding a trade for Lopez; it’s just a matter of finding the right team with the combinations of assets to make it beneficial for Brooklyn to part with the seventh-year big man.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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