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Update On Declined Rookie-Scale Options

Some NBA teams are spending the waning days of the summer debating contract extensions for players entering the final season of their rookie-scale contracts, but those aren't the only decisions that clubs must make involving recent former first-round picks. The third and fourth seasons of every rookie-scale contract are team options, and the decisions on those options are due early. They must either be exercised or declined before the second and third seasons of those deals, respectively.

Most of the time, clubs pick up those relatively cheap options, but sometimes, players simply haven't met expectations, prompting their teams to take a pass. That's the case with 14 of the 60 players picked in the first round in 2010 and 2011 — guys who would otherwise still be on their rookie deals. Here's an update on each of them.

Signed with NBA teams

  • Wesley Johnson (2010 No. 4) — He wound up with a one-year, minimum-salary deal from the Lakers this summer. The Suns turned down Johnson's fourth-year option last fall, shortly after acquiring him via trade.
  • Al-Farouq Aminu (2010 No. 8) — No one on this list was affected less by his team's decision not to exercise his option. He re-signed with the Pelicans this summer for a one-year contract worth $3,749,602 — exactly what he would have made in his option year. 
  • James Anderson (2010 No. 20) — He's bounced around quite a bit since the Spurs decided in 2011 not to exercise is third year option, signing contracts with the Hawks, Spurs again, and Rockets. Houston waived him last month, but the Sixers, with former Rockets executive Sam Hinkie as their new GM, claimed him and assumed his non-guaranteed contract.
  • Daniel Orton (2010 No. 29) — The Thunder signed him to a three-year contract right before last season, but the final two seasons are non-guaranteed, and he's expressed a willingness to be released from the deal if he could find more playing time elsewhere.

Signed overseas

  • Luke Babbitt (2010 No. 16) — He's signed a one-year deal with Russian club Nizhny Novgorod. The deal doesn't include an out that would allow him to return to the NBA this season.
  • Craig Brackins (2010 No. 21) — He'll join 2009 first-rounder Christian Eyenga in Poland this season with Stelmet Zielona Gora.
  • Nolan Smith (2011 No. 21) — Last month it appeared that Smith would take part in Celtics training camp, but he wound up signing with Cedevita Zagreb of Croatia instead.
  • JaJuan Johnson (2011 No. 27) — He inked a deal with Italy's Giorgio Tesi Pistoia after spending summer league with the Pistons in hopes of finding NBA work.

Free agents

  • Cole Aldrich (2010 No. 11) — The big man worked out for the Kings this month, and the Knicks are reportedly interested as well.
  • Xavier Henry (2010 No. 12) — The Pelicans, who declined his 2013/14 option, took the additional step of renouncing his rights in July, and there hasn't been much news on the shooting guard since. A Sixers beat writer made reference to Henry as someone who could interest the Sixers, but the only other news we've heard on him this summer involves his exploits in pickup games.
  • Elliot Williams (2010 No. 22) — He missed all of 2012/13 after tearing his Achilles tendon last September, and he sat out of summer league after having hopes of using it as a launching pad for a new deal. It doesn't sound like re-signing with the Blazers is an option.
  • Damion James (2010 No. 24) — The Nets gave him a 10-day contract a couple months after he and fellow 2010 first-rounder James Anderson failed to make the Hawks on a training camp invitation, but Brooklyn didn't renew his deal after the 10 days were up. He spent summer league with the Heat after attending a Bucks free agent mini-camp in June.
  • Dominique Jones (2010 No. 25) — He was linked to the Nets and Bucks, but that was back in June, and no other NBA teams have been reported to have interest since then. If he can't get an NBA deal, he would apparently prefer playing overseas to another stint in the D-League.
  • Lazar Hayward (2010 No. 30) — He went to Houston as part of the James Harden trade, but he didn't spent much time with the Rockets, who waived him right after they acquired him. He had a pair of brief tenures with the Timberwolves this past season, but the club didn't pick him up again after his 10-day contract expired, and we haven't heard him linked to another team since.

The Impact Of Playing Experience On Coaching

There are many ways we can categorize the experience that coaches bring to their jobs: retreads and first-time hires, college guys and NBA lifers, former assistants and those who skipped that step. Perhaps the most important of distinctions is the one that either allows them to tell their players they've been there and done that or not.

In an offseason when we've seen record-high turnover in the coaching ranks, seven of the 13 new hires are without NBA playing experience. That's an unusually high ratio in a league where most coaches were at least bit players in the Association at some point in their lives. In the last five years, teams hired 34 coaches who had played in the NBA, but only half as many who didn't. The records of those 51 total hires suggest a reason why there were more non-players hired this year. Those without playing experience compiled a .495 winning percentage, superior to the .449 winning percentage the ex-players managed. It's also worth noting that neither group of coaches hired within the past five seasons reached .500, but that's a phenomenon that's probably worth its own post.

Here's a list of this offseason's hires, broken down by ex-players and non-players:

Ex-Players

  • Jason Kidd, Nets
  • Brian Shaw, Nuggets
  • Maurice Cheeks, Pistons
  • Doc Rivers, Clippers
  • Larry Drew, Bucks
  • Jeff Hornacek, Suns

Non-Players

  • Mike Budenholzer, Hawks
  • Brad Stevens, Celtics
  • Steve Clifford, Bobcats
  • Mike Brown, Cavaliers
  • Dave Joerger, Grizzlies
  • Brett Brown, Sixers
  • Michael Malone, Kings

The chart that follows shows each of the coaching hires since the 2008 offseason, with the exception of coaches who kept their jobs for 10 games or fewer — in other words, placeholder interim choices who kept the seat warm after a coach was fired midseason. Note that some coaches are listed multiple times, like Vinny Del Negro, since they held more than one job over the past five years.

Coaches

Of course, this doesn't definitively prove coaches without playing experience are better. It merely provides a small window into the issue, and helps explain some of the hires that were made this summer. After a Finals in which both coaches never played in the NBA, we'll see if the trend toward more such coaches continues in years to come.

Hoops Rumors iPhone/iPad App Now Available

The Hoops Rumors iPhone/iPad app is now for sale in the iTunes store!  For just a one-time fee of $2.99, less than the price of a cup of coffee, here's what you get:

  • Custom push notifications: pick your favorite players and teams and receive alerts when they are involved in rumors, trades, or signings.
  • Read Hoops Rumors posts in an ad-free, iPhone/iPad-friendly format.
  • Filter headlines to show rumors for a specific team.
  • Read and create comments through Disqus.

Check out the Hoops Rumors iPhone/iPad app today!

NBA’s Worst Teams Rarely Pull Off Turnarounds

This year, plenty of teams appear to be employing a strategy of pain in hope of later gain. Whether it's called tanking, riggin' for Wiggins (in reference to Andrew Wiggins, the presumptive top pick in the 2014 draft), or a more charitable term, several front offices have gone all-in on the future at the expense of the present. The Sixers, Magic, Jazz, Suns and Kings all figure to have a hard time exceeding 25 wins this season, and the Celtics and Bobcats could wind up in that group, too. 

The reward for that kind of failure is a top pick in the loaded 2014 draft, and some of those teams are also set up with enough cap room to chase one of the superstar free agents who could become available next summer. Executives are hoping that will set them on a course toward championship contention, but teams don't often vault from the dregs to the elite, as recent history shows.

Among teams that have won 25 games or fewer in any season since 2005/06, the first year of the most recent former collective bargaining agreement, only the Celtics and the Heat have recovered to win championships. Those two franchises have accounted for three of the last six titles, which is an impressive ratio considering the depths those clubs came from. Still, it masks the fact that 14 of the NBA's 30 franchises won 25 or fewer games at some point between 2005/06 and 2011/12, meaning only one in seven reached the promised land. 

Luck factors into which teams win championships, but there's less happenstance involved in identifying teams that have had realistic shots at doing so. Grantland's Zach Lowe recently pointed to 55 regular season wins as more or less the mark of a championship contender, so that seems as an approriate a measure as any. The Grizzlies, Thunder and Clippers join the Heat and Celtics in having gone from 25 or fewer wins to 55 or more wins, but that's still only five of the 14 franchises who've plumbed the NBA depths of late.

The Celtics and Heat also represent outliers in terms of the speed with which they turned around their fortunes. No team that has finished with 25 wins or fewer since 2009/10 has recovered to make the playoffs in a subsequent season other than the Nets, who have only last year's first-round flameout to their credit. 

Here's a chart showing each team that won 25 games or fewer since 2005/06, with their records, followed by the first seasons in which they made the playoffs, won at least 55 games, and won the title, respectively. The benchmarks for the lockout-shortened season of 2011/12 were adjusted to 20 wins and 44 wins. The 2012/13 season is excluded, since none of the poorest teams from this past season have had a chance to show improvement.

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2013/14 Roster Counts

With little more than a month to go before training camp opens, we’ve already seen several players invited to training camps on non-guaranteed contracts. In many cases, those deals have taken their respective teams over the 15-man regular season roster limit. That’s OK this time of year, since teams can carry as many as 20 players in the offseason. Clubs must pare their rosters down to no more than 15 by October 28th.

In the meantime, several teams will hang above that 15-man line. Some clubs have more than 15 contracts that are at least partially guaranteed. That means they’ll wind up paying a player who won’t be on their regular season roster, unless they can find a trade partner.

With more movement to come, here’s the latest look at each team’s roster size. Check out our schedule of guarantee dates for more information and to see the names of specific players without fully guaranteed deals.

Updated 4-17-14

  • 76ers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Bobcats (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Bucks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Bulls (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Cavaliers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Celtics (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Clippers (14): 14 fully guaranteed
  • Grizzlies (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Hawks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Heat (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Jazz (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Kings (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Knicks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Lakers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Magic (13): 13 fully guaranteed
  • Mavericks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Nets (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Nuggets (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Pacers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Pelicans (16): 16 fully guaranteed
  • Pistons (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Raptors (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Rockets (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Spurs (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Suns (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Thunder (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Timberwolves (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Trail Blazers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Warriors (15): 15 fully guaranteed
  • Wizards (15): 15 fully guaranteed

ShamSports and HoopsWorld were used in the creation of this post.

Comparing Salaries For No. 1 Overall Picks

This week, No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett finally signed his rookie-scale contract with the Cavaliers. Barring a significant surprise, he'll make the standard 120% of his scale amount, so his salary will undoubtedly be $5,324,280, as our salary chart for first-round picks shows.

That's a far cry from what a No. 1 pick can earn on his second contract. Blake Griffin is entering the first season of a maximum-salary extension this year, a deal made even more lucrative when Griffin met the Derrick Rose Rule criteria for a higher max. The money gets better still when a No. 1 pick hits unrestricted free agency for the first time, as Dwight Howard's new four-year $87,591,270 max deal demonstrates.

Not every No. 1 overall pick fulfills his promise, of course, but even players who become serviceable, if not superstars, can earn eight-figure salaries, like Andrew Bogut and Andrea Bargnani. Of course, few top picks have ever panned out as poorly as Greg Oden, who's managed to play only the equivalent of one season since the Trail Blazers picked him first in 2007. Unless he suffers yet another injury, he'll be back on the court this season with the Heat, but only at the minimum salary.

Kenyon Martin will make the minimum this year, too, but part of that has to do with his advanced age. At 35, he's not the player he once was. K-Mart doesn't engender much sympathy when compared to Tim Duncan, however. Duncan is two years older and in the midst of a three-year, $30MM contract he signed last summer.

At least Martin is still playing. Michael Olowokandi and Yao Ming, No. 1 picks who entered the league after Duncan did, saw their careers come to premature ends. Allen Iverson, the No. 1 pick a year before the Spurs drafted Duncan, finally appears ready to give up the ghost, as he's reportedly set to announce his retirement, more than three years since his last NBA game.

It's been an active summer for No. 1 overall picks on the market, as Davis, Oden, Howard, Martin and Elton Brand have all signed new deals. John Wall signed a maximum-salary extension that will kick in for 2014/15, and the Raptors traded Andrea Bargnani, their top pick seven years ago, to the Knicks.

Here's every No. 1 overall pick since 1996, along with their 2013/14 salaries:

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Features

Hoops Rumors passes along the latest news and rumors on NBA player movement 365 days a year, but those aren't the only updates you'll see on the site. On our right sidebar, you'll find a number of additional features and featured posts. Here's a rundown of a few of them:

  • We're still keeping a close eye on free agency with the help of our list of 2013 free agents. If you want to look ahead to the summer of 2014, we've rounded up those free agents as well. Both lists will continue to be modified as needed.
  • Our Free Agent Tracker, which features data sortable by team, position, contract years, and contract amount, has been continually updated to include all of this summer's deals.
  • Free agents aren't the only players signing contracts. This year's draft picks are also inking their deals, and we've broken down the likely salaries for first-round picks, while we continue to follow which prospects have been locked up and which remain unsigned.
  • Not all the players currently on NBA rosters have guaranteed deals. We've provided a schedule of contract guarantee dates so you can keep track of when teams will have to make decisions on those non-guaranteed players.
  • As players like John Wall and Larry Sanders lock up new deals with their current teams, we'll continue to examine this offseason's other extension-eligible players in our Extension Candidate series.
  • Our agency database is a handy reference point for determining the representation for virtually every NBA player.
  • Using our 10-day contract tracker, you can find any 10-day contract signed since 2007, sorting by player, team, year, and other variables.
  • On Mondays at 4:00pm CT, I answer readers' questions in a live chat. These weekly live chats are on hiatus for the time being, but will return next month as training camp approaches. In the meantime, you can check out transcripts of our past live discussions here.
  • Our list of outstanding traded player exceptions is updated whenever a trade exception is created, is used, or expires.
  • We're tracking teams' amnesty provisions — using our complete list, you can check to see which clubs have used the amnesty clause and which will have it available next summer.
  • The Hoops Rumors glossary helps explain some of the more complex concepts in the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement.
  • Zach Links rounds up the best of the blogosphere every Sunday in his weekly Hoops Links feature.
  • If you're looking to catch up on a few days worth of content, our Week in Review posts round up the week's news and rumors, while our Hoops Rumors Originals posts recap the site's original content for the week. Both round-ups are published every Sunday.
  • Be sure to check out the Featured Posts section on the right sidebar for more original pieces from the Hoops Rumors writing team. Recently, we explored the concept of the salary floor as it relates to the 76ers, examined how the NBA's 30 teams have used their mid-level exceptions, and took a closer look at the league's head coaching carousel.

Largest Pay Cuts From 2012/13 To 2013/14

For some of this summer's free agents, hitting the market meant landing a significant raise, or at least landing another salary in line with a player's previous pay rate. But of course, not all of the offseason's free agents were so lucky.

Due to declining skill, decreasing demand for certain skill-sets, a willingness to take a discount to land in the right situation, or a combination of all of the above, plenty of players signed for a much smaller salary for 2013/14 than they earned in 2012/13. Here's a breakdown of the free agents taking pay cuts of $5MM+ for the coming season:

Devin Harris
2012/13: $8,500,000
2013/14: $1,272,279
Difference: $7,227,721

Manu Ginobili
2012/13: $14,107,491
2013/14: $7,500,000
Difference: $6,607,491

Andrei Kirilenko
2012/13: $9,779,349
2013/14: $3,183,000
Difference: $6,596,349

Beno Udrih
2012/13: $7,372,200
2013/14: $1,272,279
Difference: $6,099,921

Kevin Martin
2012/13: $12,439,675
2013/14: $6,500,000
Difference: $5,939,675

Mo Williams
2012/13: $8,500,000
2013/14: $2,652,000
Difference: $5,848,000

In addition to the players who have already signed deals, a few free agents who earned big salaries a year ago remain on the market, and are mortal locks to take pay cuts of more than $5MM. Here's that list:

Corey Maggette (2012/13: $10,924,138)
Lamar Odom (2012/13: $8,200,000)
DeSagana Diop (2012/13: $7,372,200)

The players listed above represent the guys taking the most significant pay cuts, but there are a few other free agents deserving of an honorable mention — or a dishonorable mention, depending on your perspective.

Andrew Bynum, coming off a $16,889,000 salary, is in line for $12,250,000 if he remains on the Cavs' roster for the full season. That in itself represents a pretty noticeable decrease in salary, but Bynum's pay cut could be even more significant, since only $6MM of his salary is guaranteed. If the Cavs release him before his deal becomes fully guaranteed, he'd be taking a pay cut of more than $10MM, putting him at the top of this list.

A pair of amnestied players are also technically taking major pay cuts this year, as Elton Brand's and Baron Davis' salaries are no longer being paid by their old teams. Still, since Davis was out of the NBA last year, and the Mavericks paid Brand a modest $2,100,500 salary, their salaries for cap and tax purposes aren't undergoing major changes from '12/13 to '13/14.

Other notables include Chris Kaman, Francisco Garcia, Nick Young, and Jose Calderon, who all took pay cuts of $4MM+, as well as Luke Walton and Daniel Gibson, who remain unsigned after earning about $6.09MM and $4.79MM respectively.

Storytellers Contracts and ShamSports were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Agency Database

If you missed it when we unveiled it earlier this year, be sure to check out Hoops Rumors' new Agency Database. Over the last several months, we have attempted to identify and confirm the representation for each current NBA player, as well as many players who have appeared in the league recently.

Our Agency Database can be found anytime on the right sidebar under the "Hoops Rumors Features" menu. It can also be sorted and filtered by player, team, and agency to easily find a variety of information. For instance, if you're interested in finding the representation for the players currently on the Knicks' roster, you can filter by team to create this list. Our data should, for the most part, be updated to reflect the latest offseason signings and trades.

As players change agencies, such as Monta Ellis recently opting to leave Jeff Fried of Peake Management Group for Dan Fegan of Relativity Sports, we note those moves in the database. We are continuing to work toward making the database 100% complete and accurate, so if you have any info on corrections or omissions, please email us at hoopsdatabase@gmail.com.

Important Dates For The 2013/14 NBA Season

The NBA’s 2013/14 regular season and preseason schedules were announced earlier this month, but for our purposes at Hoops Rumors, the dates that were unveiled by the league today are more noteworthy (hat tip to Hardwood Paroxysm). Here’s a list of a few of the more important days on the NBA’s 2013/14 calendar, including ones announced today and ones we already knew about:

August 31: Last day for teams to release players using the stretch provision.

September 6: Second-round draft picks become free agents if not tendered a contract offer.
September 27
: Media day for teams playing preseason games overseas.
September 30: Media day for the rest of the NBA’s teams.

October 28: Last day of the offseason. Roster size reduced to 15-player maximum (from 20). Last day to make sign-and-trade transactions, and last day to waive non-guaranteed summer contracts.
October 31
: Last day rookie scale contracts can be extended, and last day option years on rookie contracts for the 2014/15 season can be exercised.

December 15: Most players who signed new contracts this offseason (on or before September 15th) can be traded as of this date.

January 6: Teams can begin signing players to 10-day contracts.
January 10
: Players still on non-guaranteed contracts have their contracts guaranteed for the remainder of the season. Players must clear waivers by this date to avoid having their deals guaranteed.
January 15
: Players with Bird or Early Bird rights who re-signed with their own over-the-cap team (on or before October 15th) and received at least a 20% raise can be traded as of this date. For instance, Tiago Splitter would be eligible to be dealt as of January 15th, rather than December 15th.

February 14-16: All-Star weekend in New Orleans.
February 20: Trade deadline.

March 1: Players released after this date are ineligible for the postseason if they sign with a new team.

April 16: Last day of regular season. Last day players can sign contracts for 2013/14. Luxury tax figures are determined using team salary on this day.

May 20: Draft lottery.

June 26: 2014 NBA draft.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.