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Decline Of College Seniors In Draft Continues

The Portsmouth Invitational Tournament got under way yesterday, but what once was a key pre-draft showcase now seems the exclusive territory of second-round hopefuls and future D-Leaguers. The tournament is for the top college seniors, but seniors have become decreasingly relevant in the draft. Even the most highly regarded seniors are now staying away from Portsmouth, yet the more significant development is the lack of highly regarded seniors at all.

The No. 1 senior on Jonathan Givony's DraftExpress board is Duke's Mason Plumlee, whom Givony ranks 13th overall. C.J. McCollum of Lehigh is the top senior for Chad Ford of ESPN.com, and he likewise checks in at No. 13 on Ford's overall list.

In 2006, the first year of the NBA's current age limit eliminating high schoolers from the draft, the Hawks took Duke senior Shelden Williams fifth overall. He was the first of three consecutive college seniors taken in that draft, and a total of eight went in the first round. Since then, only one senior has been drafted in the top 10: Jimmer Fredette, who went 10th overall to the Kings in 2011.

The past 15 drafts show a steady decline in the number of seniors drafted in the first round each year, and that's also reflected in the draft position of the highest senior selected. Nearly half of the first-round picks from 1998 to 2000 were seniors, as were two of the three No. 1 overall selections in that span. Since then, no senior has gone higher than Williams at No. 5 in 2006. Fredette was the only senior to become a lottery pick in the past three seasons.

The "one-and-done" eligibility rule, which sees many top-ranked prospects spend one year in college before entering the draft, is an easy target for explaining why fewer college seniors are picked, but the number of first-round seniors was dwindling even before 2006. Underclassmen have, for years, taken advantage of the opportunity to jump to the NBA as soon as they're deemed ready by scouts and executives, who in turn continue to draft them. Players and teams alike perpetuate the phenomenon.  

Here's a look at the number of seniors taken in each draft since 1998, with the highest senior picked in parentheses:

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Net First-Round Draft Pick Debts And Credits

First-round picks were at a premium at the trade deadline this year. None of them changed hands, even though the 2013 draft class might be devoid of superstars. Teams still value the idea of rebuilding through the draft, and perhaps none more so than the Cavaliers, who have stockpiled four future first-round picks without owing any to another team. That gives them the highest net first-round draft pick credit in the NBA. The Magic and Suns follow with credits of three first-rounders a piece, and they're followed by a team that isn't trying to rebuild through the draft as much as they're trying to simply reload — the Thunder. Here's the complete list of teams set to receive more first-round picks than they're giving up:

  • Cavaliers: +4
  • Magic: +3
  • Suns: +3
  • Thunder: +2
  • Hawks: +1
  • Bobcats: +1
  • Bulls: +1
  • Jazz: +1

On the other side of the equation are the teams that owe first-rounders. Thanks to the Steve Nash and Dwight Howard deals this summer, the Lakers have given up three of their first-round picks, the maximum allowed under the Ted Stepien rule. Here's the list of teams relinquishing more first-rounders than they're getting:

  • Lakers: -3
  • Grizzlies: -2
  • 76ers: -2
  • Heat: -1
  • Knicks:  -1
  • Trail Blazers: -1
  • Kings: -1
  • Raptors: -1
  • Mavericks: -1
  • Pistons:  -1
  • Warriors:  -1
  • Rockets: -1

RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

First-Round Draft Picks Seeing Limited Minutes

We're familiar with the stories of Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal and others from the first round of the 2012 draft who've made significant contributions to their teams this season. Less well-known is what's happened to the five first-rounders who entered tonight having seen fewer than 100 total minutes all year.

The list is a little shorter than it was going into Wednesday, when the Rockets gave 18th overall pick Terrence Jones 29 minutes worth of run in a win against the Kings, pushing his total for the season to 120 minutes. The team had been pleased with Jones' most recent work in the D-League, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, and Jones responded with 14 points and 12 rebounds against Sacramento (Twitter links). Still, Jones had 12 points and eight rebounds in 30 minutes against the Jazz on November 19th and was in the D-League 11 days later, so we'll see what happens this time.

Other teams, particularly those whose playoff fates have been determined, may also start giving minutes to their little-used rookies during the season's final two weeks. Yet even though the rookie-scale contracts that first-round picks must sign to enter the league are some of the most team-friendly pacts in the NBA, it's hard to argue the clubs that drafted these five players are getting their money's worth this year:

  • Royce White, Rockets (No. 16 pick, zero NBA minutes): Most of the guys on this list have been out of the spotlight, but White's back-and-forth with the Rockets over their handling of his psychological ailments has been one of the most well-documented stories in the NBA this season. It's unclear how long White will remain with the team's D-League affiliate, but so far he hasn't been impressive for the Vipers, averaging 10.1 PPG and 5.5 RPG in 25.1 minutes across 14 games.
  • Fab Melo, Celtics (No. 22 pick, 19 NBA minutes): Melo has spent most of the season with Boston's D-League affiliate, appearing in just five NBA contests. His offensive game clearly could use improvement, as he's put up just 9.9 PPG in 26.5 minutes per game for the Maine Red Claws, and the center's work on the boards benefit from an upgrade, too, since he's only pulling down six rebounds per night at the D-League level. Still, the 7'0" Melo has shown a knack for protecting the basket, blocking 3.3 shots per game for the Red Claws.
  • Jared Cunningham, Mavericks (No. 24 pick, 26 NBA minutes): Cunningham is out for the season with tendinitis in his right knee, and hasn't played at any level since a February 13th game for the D-League's Texas Legends. The 6'4" shooting guard only saw action in 15 D-League games before the injury, averaging 15.3 PPG in 34.5 minutes per contest. Cunningham has been outperformed by second-round picks Jae Crowder and Bernard James, both of whom have spent time in the Mavs' rotation.
  • Miles Plumlee, Pacers (No. 26 pick, 46 NBA minutes): Plumlee has appeared in 12 games for the Pacers this year, but no stint lasted as long as six minutes, and none of the games he entered were decided by fewer than 10 points. He's shown a knack for rebounding in 15 D-League games, averaging 10.2 RPG in 30.5 minutes per contest for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants, and he's totaled 20 rebounds in his limited time on NBA courts — a small sample size, to be sure, but enough to pique curiousity about what he could do if the Pacers gave him more exposure.
  • Jeremy Lamb, Thunder (No. 12 pick, 93 NBA minutes): The only lottery pick on this list, Lamb found himself in a tough place to earn playing time after the James Harden trade sent him to Oklahoma City. The Thunder have taken advantage of their proximity to their wholly owned D-League affiliate in Tulsa, cycling Lamb and others back and forth throughout the season. In 20 games across seven D-League stints this season, Lamb is averaging 21.4 PPG and 5.2 RPG.  

Five more players have seen fewer than 500 minutes this season, though predictably they were all picked late in the first round:

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Players With Most Guaranteed Long-Term Salary

Many of the NBA's most overpaid players, such as Hedo Turkoglu, Kris Humphries, Corey Maggette and others, will see their contracts come to an end this year or next, but that doesn't mean that there aren't still plenty of teams with long-term commitments on their books. Many of these long-term deals were signed within the last year or two, meaning the players are still performing at a high level.

A good percentage of those players will continue to play well throughout their contracts, but the success rate is unlikely to be 100%. A handful of these big-money four- or five-year deals could go south before they eventually expire.

Listed below are all the players who will still have $30MM or more in guaranteed money remaining on their contracts, starting next season. Non-guaranteed money and/or team options aren't included in these amounts, but player options are, since a team has little to no control over whether those options will be exercised.

Here are the players with the most guaranteed money remaining on their contracts beyond this season:

Blake Griffin, Clippers: $94,314,376** (five years)
Deron Williams, Nets: $81,594,530 (four years)
Derrick Rose, Bulls: $77,911,876 (four years)
James Harden, Rockets: $69,710,623** (five years)
Joe Johnson, Nets: $69,542,371 (three years)
Russell Westbrook, Thunder; $64,926,560 (four years)
LeBron James, Heat: $61,770,000 (three years)
Chris Bosh, Heat: $61,770,000 (three years)
Dwyane Wade, Heat: $60,492,000 (three years)
Kevin Durant, Thunder: $56,986,873 (three years)
Serge Ibaka, Thunder: $49,000,000 (four years)
Ty Lawson, Nuggets: $48,000,000 (four years)
Brook Lopez, Nets: $47,157,188 (three years)
Kevin Love, Timberwolves: $47,157,186 (three years)
Carmelo Anthony, Knicks: $46,759,398 (two years)
Amare Stoudemire, Knicks: $45,090,881 (two years)
Roy Hibbert, Pacers: $44,696,813 (three years)
Eric Gordon, Hornets: $44,696,813 (three years)
David Lee, Warriors: $44,383,680 (three years)
Stephen Curry, Warriors: $44,000,000 (four years)
Jrue Holiday, 76ers: $41,000,004 (four years)
Nene, Wizards: $39,000,000 (three years)
DeMar DeRozan, Raptors; $38,000,000 (four years)
Rudy Gay, Raptors: $37,206,256 (two years)
Joakim Noah, Bulls: $36,700,000 (three years)
Al Horford, Hawks: $36,000,000 (three years)
Nicolas Batum, Trail Blazers: $35,296,500 (three years)
Zach Randolph, Grizzlies: $34,300,000 (two years)
JaVale McGee, Nuggets: $34,000,000 (three years)
Taj Gibson, Bulls: $33,000,000 (four years)
Danilo Gallinari, Nuggets: $32,561,000 (three years)
Carlos Boozer, Bulls: $32,100,000 (two years)
George Hill, Pacers: $32,000,000 (four years)
Marc Gasol, Grizzlies: $30,690,211 (two years)
Kobe Bryant, Lakers: $30,453,805 (one year)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers: $30,384,000 (two years)
Gerald Wallace, Nets: $30,317,565 (three years)

(** Griffin and Harden signed maximum-salary deals, so the exact figures for 2013/14 and beyond aren't known yet; these amounts are based on '12/13's max salaries.)

Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this post.

Colleges That Produce Highly Paid NBA Players

As scouts focus on the NCAA tournament in preparation for June's draft, it's worth noting which colleges have been most effective at not just producing NBA players, but highly paid NBA stars. One way of measuring this is looking at players who are making at least $10MM this season. Since rookie-scale contracts limit the earning power of the most recent entrants in the league, players making eight-figure salaries have already either established themselves as marquee pro talents or shown enough glimpses of their promise over their first several seasons to convince a team to open its checkbook. 

The influx of high school players, starting with Kevin Garnett in 1995 and ending in 2006, when the NBA instituted its age limit that sends most players to college for at least one season, led to a boatload of stars with no college experience. The rise in the number of international players has thinned out the college crowd, too. Three of the top four highest-paid players have no college experience, and 20 of the players making $10MM or more never stepped foot on campus.

Aside from a few bluebloods, highly paid NBA players come from a diverse range of schools. Connecticut, Duke and Florida lead all schools with three $10MM+ players each, not surprising considering all three have won multiple national championships within the last 15 years. Arizona, Texas and UCLA each boast two $10MM+ guys, but no other school can claim more than one NBA player making at least $10MM this year. The club isn't limited to NCAA tournament regulars, either. Western Carolina, Nevada, and even Butler County Community College, the alma mater of Stephen Jackson, have all produced big-money NBA talent.  

The list excludes players receiving money this season from contracts that teams removed from their books using the amnesty clause. It also doesn't include Rashard Lewis, who signed a minimum-salary deal with the Heat after the Hornets waived him over the summer, leaving his $13,765,000 cap hit on their payroll. Lewis would be the 21st player among those who didn't attend college.

No college

Connecticut

Duke

Florida

Arizona

Texas

UCLA

Arkansas

Butler County Community College

Georgetown

Georgia Tech

Illinois

Indiana

Kansas

Kentucky

Marquette

Memphis

Michigan State

Minnesota

Nevada

New Mexico

Stanford

Syracuse

Texas A&M

Utah

Wake Forest

Western Carolina

Xavier

HoopsWorld and ShamSports were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Features

Hoops Rumors passes along the latest news and rumors on NBA player movement 365 days a year, but those aren't the only updates you'll see on the site. On our right sidebar, you'll find a number of additional features and featured posts. Here's a rundown of a few of them:

  • In addition to our list of 2012/13 free agents, we also have free agent lists for both next summer, and the summer of 2014, which will continue to be modified as needed.
  • Our Free Agent Tracker, which features data sortable by team, position, contract years, and contract amount, currently includes last summer's signings and will be used to track the upcoming summer's deals as well.
  • Speaking of those upcoming signings, we've started looking ahead to a number of free agent cases in our Free Agent Stock Watch series, which we'll continue through July.
  • Throughout the season, we've been keeping tabs on roster counts for each NBA team, the year's D-League assignments and recalls, and all the in-season trades consummated this year.
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Players Turning 10-Days Into Rest-Of-Season Deals

Few contracts in professional sports are as fleeting as the NBA's 10-day deals, which give players just a week and a half, usually no more than four or five games, to prove they deserve a chance to remain on a team's roster. As Jannero Pargo, who is currently playing on his fourth 10-day contract of the season, told Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer earlier this month, "Fourth quarter, down two points, is a lot less pressure than playing on a 10-day contract."

While many players don't receive a shot at a second 10-day deal or a guaranteed contract, a number of guys this season have parlayed these temporary contracts into something more permanent. When Terrel Harris and Maalik Wayns finalize their reported agreements with the Hornets and Clippers, respectively, they'll be the 13th and 14th players in 2013 to be locked up to guaranteed deals after starting on a 10-day contract.

With the help of our 10-day contract tracker, here's a round-up of the players to sign rest-of-season deals following 10-day contracts this season:

While most of these players signed a pair of 10-day contracts before their clubs locked them up for the season, the Sixers and Celtics apparently saw enough from Jeremy Pargo and Terrence Williams during their first week and a half with their respective teams to not require that second 10-day stint. Additionally, a number of these guys, including the Celtics trio, were locked up to non-guaranteed contracts for 2013/14, giving teams a chance to get an extended look at them over the summer.

One more note: Although many of these players have become a part of their teams' regular rotations, that's not always the case. For every Mike James, who has started the Mavericks' last 12 games and played 20+minutes in each contest, there's a Jarvis Varnado, who hasn't appeared in a game for the Heat in over a month as he shuffles back and forth between the NBA and the D-League.

The difference between James and Varnado highlights the difference ways in which teams can employ 10-day deals. James, a 37-year-old veteran proved during his 10-day contracts that he had enough left in the tank to help the Mavs immediately. Varnado, meanwhile, showed enough promise that the Heat wanted to keep him on their roster into the summer, even if won't contribute at all on the court during the team's playoff run.

To keep tabs on all of this year's 10-day contracts, be sure to check out our tracker, which allows you to sort 10-day deals by type, team, player, and more.