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Qualifying Offers And The Starter Criteria

May 29th, 2012 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

With the summer approaching, new details of the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement figure to become relevant over the next few weeks, slightly modifiying the usual process for free agency. One such change will impact the qualifying offers teams extend to free agents this offseason, based on a newly-defined "starter criteria."

The new CBA describes a "starter" as either starting 41 games or playing 2,000 minutes in a season, and rewards players for meeting those criteria. If a player achieved one of those benchmarks in the season prior to his free agency, or averaged one of those benchmarks in the two seasons leading up to his free agency, his qualifying offer will be affected as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter critera will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
  • A played picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.

Because the 2008 class of rookies will be hitting restricted free agency this season, the 2008/09 rookie scale will dictate the qualifying offers received. Using RealGM's rookie scale chart for 2008, we can calculate the qualifying offers as follows:

  • 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick is $4,385,416.
  • 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick is $4,001,917.
  • 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick is $2,695,391.

So which players will be affected by this new rule this summer? Using our list of restricted free agents, the above calculations, and the starter criteria, this offseason's modified qualifying offers are listed below. Teams will have to offer these free agents a one-year contract worth the listed amount to make them restricted — otherwise they'll become unrestricted and can freely sign with any club.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet the starter criteria1 and will be eligible for a QO of $4,001,917:

Players picked between 10th and 30th who met the starter criteria1 and will be eligible for a QO of $4,385,416:

Other free agents with three years or less in the NBA who met the starter criteria1 and will be eligible for a QO of $2,695,391:

1 Starter criteria are assumed to be prorated for the lockout-shortened 2011/12 season. For instance, Courtney Lee played 1,757 minutes in the 66-game season. In a typical 82-game season, that number prorates to 2,183 minutes, exceeding the necessary 2,000 minutes.

Note: Thanks to Mark Deeks of Sham Sports for confirming information in this post.

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Important NBA Offseason Dates

May 29th, 2012 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

May 30th is the first date of the NBA offseason we've circled on the calendar, with the 2012 draft lottery set to take place tomorrow night in New York. Many crucial dates will follow, however, so let's examine what the offseason schedule looks like for the Association, as teams prepare for the 2012/13 campaign:

May

June

July

  • 1: 2012/13 salary cap year and July moratorium begin. Free agents become free.
  • 11: July moratorium ends and new salary cap figures take effect. Teams can sign free agents, make trades, and extend contracts. Seven-day amnesty period begins.
  • 16: First-round draft picks become free agents if not offered a contract.
  • 23: Last day to withdraw a qualifying offer to a restricted free agent without the player's approval.
  • 27: 2012 Summer Olympics begin.

August

  • 12: Olympics end.
  • 15: Released players begin staying on waivers for only 48 hours rather than a full week.

September

  • 6: Second-round draft picks become free agents if not offered a contract.

October

  • 1: Last day for a restricted free agent to accept a qualifying offer.
  • 29: Last day of offseason. Roster size reduced to 15-player maximum. Last day to make sign-and-trade transactions, and last day to waive non-guaranteed summer contracts.
  • 31: Last day rookie scale contracts can be extended, and last day option years on rookie contracts for the 2013/14 season can be exercised.

Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

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The Relative Value Of Lottery Picks

May 28th, 2012 at 8:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

It's hard to know exactly what's at stake in Wednesday's NBA draft lottery, when the order for the June 28th draft will be finalized. Anthony Davis is the clear frontrunner for the No. 1 pick, but after that, it gets murky. Beyond speculation on who gets picked when and by whom, there's really no telling how any of the draft prospects will turn out once they become pros. The history of the draft is full of stories about "can't miss" phenoms who never fulfilled their ballyhooed potential. Still, history can tell us a little about the relative likelihood of draftees becoming productive NBA players.

Below is the average career PER for players taken with each of the top 14 picks since 2003, when the lottery expanded to 14 teams. PER, or player efficiency rating, is a catch-all metric developed by John Hollinger of ESPN.com to provide a concise per-minute assessment of a player's performance, as Basketball-Reference explains. Like any single statistic, it's not infallible, and overrates some players who don't see much time on the floor. That's one reason why, for instance, Mouhamed Sene and J.J. Redick have the same career per of 13.5. Still, it's interesting to see what it says about a group of draft picks over time.

Most striking is the difference between the average PER for a No. 1 pick and every other position in the lottery. The 20.1 PER for recent No. 1 picks is 32% higher than that of No. 2 picks, and 23% higher than the 16.3 PER for No. 4 picks, the next best average. So, that's one more reason teams will be rooting hard to move into the top position Wednesday. The rest of the top 10 is bunched up, with another drop from there. Here are the numbers:

1st: 20.1 
2nd: 15.2 
3rd: 15.7 
4th: 16.3
5th: 15.3 
6th: 13.6 
7th: 15.0 
8th: 13.0 
9th: 14.8 
10th: 14.2 
11th: 11.6
12th: 11.9
13th: 12.7
14th: 12.6 

Note: We've assigned zeroes for 2011 No. 5 pick Jonas Valanciunas and 2005 No. 11 pick Fran Vasquez, who've yet to play in the NBA. If Valanciunas is left out of calculations, the average PER for the No. 5 pick is 17.2, and without Vasquez, the PER for No. 11 picks jumps to 13.0.

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Teams That Changed Execs, Coaches In Same Year

May 26th, 2012 at 4:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Magic will be replacing both GM Otis Smith and coach Stan Van Gundy this summer, and there's a fair chance the Blazers will have a new GM and coach when next season tips off as well. So, let's look at teams that recently changed coaches and player personnel executives in rapid succession and see how they fared. In each instance below, the executive is listed first and the coach second, unless the same man occupied both jobs. 

Knicks, 2008: Donnie Walsh and Mike D'Antoni replace Isiah Thomas: Walsh and D'Antoni may not have led the team back into the title hunt in their time together, but they deserve credit for cleaning up the mess made by Thomas, who went 56-108 coaching his handpicked roster for two seasons in New York.

Nets, 2010: Billy King and Avery Johnson replace Rod Thorn and Kiki Vandeweghe: King and Johnson inherited a scorched-earth situation, having gone 12-70 in 2009/10. King pulled off the Deron Williams trade in his first year, and if he can convince him to re-sign this summer, the franchise will keep its positive momentum going.

Sixers, 2010: Rod Thorn and Doug Collins replace Ed Stefanski and Eddie Jordan: The Sixers have been in the playoffs in both years under the new regime, and this year they're in the second round for the first time since 2003.

Bucks, 2008: John Hammond and Scott Skiles replace Larry Harris and Larry Krystkowiak: Aside from a seven-game challenge of the Hawks in the 2010 first round, the current Bucks leadership hasn't done much to improve over the former. Owner Herb Kohl said earlier this month he has no plans to extend either Hammond or Skiles as both enter the final year of their contracts.

Cavs, 2010: Chris Grant and Byron Scott replace Danny Ferry and Mike Brown: It was a rough initiation to the GM seat for Grant, who had been on the job for just a month when LeBron James skipped town. Still, Grant swung a deal in his first season for what turned out to be 2011 No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving, and under Scott's tutelage, Irving won Rookie of the Year.

Timberwolves, 2009: David Kahn and Kurt Rambis replace Jim Stack and Randy Wittman: The play of Ricky Rubio this year helped soften criticism of Kahn's point guard heavy draft in 2009, but that's little solace for Rambis, who won 28 games in two full seasons and was out of his job before Rubio ever played a game in the NBA.

Clippers, 2010: Neil Olshey and Vinny Del Negro replace Mike Dunleavy and Kim Hughes: Dunleavy lost his GM job a month after his coaching job was given to Kim Hughes on an interim basis. That cleared the way for the current regime that has overseen the emergence of Blake Griffin, the Chris Paul trade and the renaissance of the franchise. 

Hornets, 2010: Dell Demps and Monty Williams replace Jeff Bower: The Hornets made the defending champion Lakers sweat in a 2010 first-round series, but the past year has not been as much fun for Demps and Williams. Still, there's optimism now that league ownership is out of the way and new owner Tom Benson, who has committed to keeping both coach and player, is in place.

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League Announces All-NBA Teams

May 24th, 2012 at 1:12pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA officially released its 2011/12 All-NBA teams today in a press release. The selections are as follows:

First team:

Second team:

Third team:

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Team Facebook/Twitter/RSS

May 23rd, 2012 at 11:50am CST by Luke Adams

If you want to keep tabs on all of Hoops Rumors' stories and updates, you can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, or subscribe to our feed through your RSS reader of choice. However, if you prefer to only receive news about your favorite NBA team, we have you covered. Below are links to our Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds for all 30 teams.

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Southwest

Northwest

Pacific

Transactions only: Twitter / RSS

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Traded Draft Picks Who Turned Into All-Stars

May 20th, 2012 at 4:47pm CST by Chuck Myron

Patience is an uncommon virtue around NBA front offices, where the pressure is on to win as soon as possible. That means the future, in the form of draft picks, is often mortgaged for the sake of the present. Of the 60 selections to be made at this June's draft, 19 of them have already changed hands, with another two picks subject to be moved pending the lottery, and one more contingent on a decision by the Lakers. That's not counting picks that could be traded on draft day or shortly thereafter, before draftees sign.

As a result, plenty of talent gets moved around, and that includes future All-Stars. Thirteen guys who played in an All-Star Game during the past three seasons were traded, either as future draft picks or recent draftees, before they ever suited up for the teams that originally held their rights. That list includes Rajon Rondo, whose rights the Celtics traded for, traded away, and eventually reacquired. A similar situation happened with Amare Stoudemire and the Suns. Below is the complete list of recent All-Stars whose draft rights were traded.

LaMarcus Aldridge: Pick traded by Knicks to Bulls; Drafted by Bulls, traded to Blazers
Ray Allen: Drafted by Timberwolves, traded to Bucks
Kobe Bryant: Drafted by Hornets, traded to Lakers
Luol Deng: Drafted by Suns, traded to Bulls
Roy Hibbert: Drafted by Raptors, traded to Pacers
Marc Gasol: Drafted by Lakers, traded to Grizzlies
Pau Gasol: Drafted by Hawks, traded to Grizzlies
David Lee: Pick traded by Suns to Spurs; Pick traded by Spurs to Knicks
Kevin Love:  Drafted by Grizzlies, traded to Timberwolves
Dirk Nowitzki: Drafted by Bucks, traded to Mavericks
Rajon Rondo: Pick traded by Lakers to Celtics; Pick traded by Celtics to Hawks; Pick traded by Hawks to Suns; Drafted by Suns, traded to Celtics
Amare Stoudemire: Pick traded by Suns to Magic; Pick traded by Magic to Suns
Deron Williams: Pick traded by Blazers to Jazz 

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2011/12 NBA Award Winners

May 16th, 2012 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

We're still awaiting word on this season's All-NBA, All-Rookie, and All-Defensive squads, but all the individual awards have been officially announced by the league. Here's a rundown of the top performers of the 2011/12 season, including the top five vote-getters for each award:

Most Valuable Player:

  1. LeBron James (Heat)
  2. Kevin Durant (Thunder)
  3. Chris Paul (Clippers)
  4. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
  5. Tony Parker (Spurs)

Sixth Man of the Year:

  1. James Harden (Thunder)
  2. Lou Williams (76ers)
  3. Jason Terry (Mavericks)
  4. Al Harrington (Nuggets)
  5. Manu Ginobili (Spurs)

Defensive Player of the Year:

  1. Tyson Chandler (Knicks)
  2. Serge Ibaka (Thunder)
  3. Dwight Howard (Magic)
  4. LeBron James (Heat)
  5. Kevin Garnett (Celtics)

Rookie of the Year:

  1. Kyrie Irving (Cavaliers)
  2. Ricky Rubio (Timberwolves)
  3. Kenneth Faried (Nuggets)
  4. Kawhi Leonard (Spurs)
  5. Iman Shumpert (Knicks)

Most Improved Player:

  1. Ryan Anderson (Magic)
  2. Ersan Ilyasova (Bucks)
  3. Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves)
  4. Andrew Bynum (Lakers)
  5. Greg Monroe (Pistons)

Coach of the Year:

  1. Gregg Popovich (Spurs)
  2. Tom Thibodeau (Bulls)
  3. Frank Vogel (Pacers)
  4. Lionel Hollins (Grizzlies)
  5. Doc Rivers (Celtics)

Executive of the Year:

  1. Larry Bird (Pacers)
  2. R.C. Buford (Spurs)
  3. Neil Olshey (Clippers)
  4. Gar Forman (Bulls)
  5. Kevin O'Connor (Jazz)
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NBA Introduces New Competition Committee

May 16th, 2012 at 11:36am CST by Luke Adams

Last month, the NBA's board of governors voted to change the composition of the league's Competition Committee to include two owners, four general managers, three coaches, and one representative of the players' association. Today, the league announced the members of the new committee. The NBPA has yet to designate its representative, but the rest of the members are as follows:

  • Dan Gilbert, owner (Cavaliers)
  • Joe Lacob, owner (Warriors)
  • Bryan Colangelo, GM (Raptors)
  • Mitch Kupchak, GM (Lakers)
  • Kevin O'Connor, GM (Jazz)
  • Sam Presti, GM (Thunder)
  • Rick Carlisle, coach (Mavericks)
  • Lionel Hollins, coach (Grizzlies)
  • Doc Rivers, coach (Celtics)

The Competition Committee will be responsible for suggesting format or rule changes to the league's board of governors, which will then vote on whether or not to implement the recommendations. Previously, the committee was made up of the NBA's 30 general managers — that group has been reconstituted as the General Managers Committee, and will meet annually to discuss the state of the game and competition-related matters.

"The Board decided that the inclusion of owners and head coaches on the Competition Committee would add valuable perspectives to discussions about our game and how it might be improved," said Joel Litvin, NBA president of league operations. "At the same time, we will continue to receive input on competition and rules matters from all 30 teams through the General Managers Committee."

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Where Contributors To Playoff Teams Were Drafted

May 14th, 2012 at 9:11pm CST by Chuck Myron

As players eligible for June's draft scramble to move up on teams' boards, it might be important for them to remember there's little connection between draft position and the ability to make an impact on a quality team. Below the jump is a list of the draft position for all the significant contributors to teams that made the playoffs this year. For our purposes, that includes every player who played in at least 10 games, averaged at least 10 minutes per game, and is still on the official 15-man roster. So, that's why Lamar Odom is listed and Jordan Hill isn't. By the name of each team is the average draft position and the number of undrafted players.

Of note:

  • The most talented playoff team this year, in terms of draft position, is the Mavs, whose players have an average draft position of 13.1, a pick that would be high enough to fall in the lottery. They had no significant contributions from anyone picked in the second round or any undrafted players. For all that talent, the Mavs failed to win a single game in the postseason.
  • The team with the lowest average draft position is the Spurs, at 32.9, a number that would translate to a second round pick. It's remarkable, considering they have Tim Duncan, a former No. 1 overall pick, on the roster, but somewhat unsurprising given the franchise's reputation for developing obscure talent. The number doesn't take into consideration undrafted Gary Neal.
  • The East's top two teams in the regular season, the Bulls and the Heat, each had three undrafted players contribute to their success, more than any other playoff team.

Read more

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