- The Jazz need to re-sign free agent Jordan Clarkson and use their mid-level exception on a wing player that can defend quicker players, Sarah Todd of the Deseret News opines. Utah owns Clarkson’s Bird rights and needs his offensive punch, notes Todd, who also details why it would be a bad idea to trade for the Sixers’ Al Horford.
Jazz guard Mike Conley isn’t expected to exercise an early termination option on his $34.5MM salary for next season, but Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune suggests that he and the team could both benefit if he did. Walden notes that Conley could opt out and sign a new deal that would give him similar money in the long term while offering Utah some immediate cap flexibility.
If Conley plays out his current deal, he will be a 33-year-old unrestricted free agent next offseason and Walden estimates he can expect three-year offers in the $35MM to $40MM range. The Jazz could combine that with his current deal by offering $70MM to $75MM over four years.
That takes away any worry of an injury that could reduce Conley’s value and it cuts his 2020/21 cap figure in half, bringing it down to about $17-$19MM. That could allow Utah to use Bird Rights to re-sign Jordan Clarkson and add players with its mid-level and biannual exceptions without going into tax territory.
There’s more from the Northwest Division:
- Adding free agent forward Derrick Jones Jr. is an easy way for the Trail Blazers to improve their defense, writes Jason Quick of The Athletic. Jones is only 23 and has proven to be an excellent defender who can block shots and switch on pick and rolls. Several teams will likely have their eyes on him, so Quick believes Portland should be willing to offer its entire mid-level exception of roughly $9MM if that’s what it takes to land him.
- Carmelo Anthony is looking at a reduced role on a healthier Trail Blazers team next season and will probably search for a better opportunity in free agency, Quick adds in the same piece. Anthony saw a lot of minutes before the hiatus at power forward in place of Zach Collins, who was recovering from shoulder surgery. In Orlando, he filled in at small forward for Trevor Ariza, who opted out of the restart. They’re both expected to be in training camp, along with Rodney Hood, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon last December.
- Joe Musatto of The Oklahoman evaluates potential Thunder coaches Darvin Ham and Wes Unseld Jr. in a pair of stories.
Sixers assistant coach Joseph Blair has departed Philadelphia in favor of a position on Ryan Saunders‘ staff with the Timberwolves, according to Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link).
Blair was previously an assistant coach with the Rockets’ G League affiliate, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, from 2015-18 before being promoted to head coach for the 2018/19 season. Blair guided that squad to a G League title. He served on Brett Brown‘s staff with the Sixers for Brown’s final season in 2019/20.
Pompey also reports that Sergi Oliva, the vice president of strategy for the Sixers, is leaving Philadelphia’s front office to join Quin Snyder as an assistant coach on the Jazz bench. Oliva has worked for Philadelphia’s front office in some capacity since 2014. Pompey indicated that Oliva played a key role in the club’s analytics-predicated decision making.
Blair and Oliva are not the first Sixers personnel to move on from Philadelphia this season. Assistant coach Kevin Young also recently departed the Sixers for an opportunity with Monty Williams and the Suns.
The Sixers recently signed head coach Doc Rivers to a five-year contract in the hopes that he could guide All-Stars Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid to a title. Rivers is in the process of fleshing out his own staff. Early today, it was announced that former Kings and Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger would be joining the 76ers as an assistant.
The Thunder are one of the few teams still searching for a new head coach. Last month, Billy Donovan and Oklahoma City surprisingly parted ways after he reportedly rejected a two-year contract offer from the Thunder.
With Donovan having moved onto Chicago, Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman explores the idea of Lakers assistant coach Phil Handy as a potential head-coaching candidate for the Thunder. Mussatto notes that the 49-year-old Handy has a championship pedigree, having gone to the NBA Finals six times. He also looked at Handy’s journey, which includes playing professional basketball and getting his start as a player development coach in 2011.
Along with Handy, Mussatto profiled Spurs assistant Will Hardy as a head coaching option for the Thunder.
Here’s more from the Northwest Division:
- Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune takes a look at who the Jazz might select with the 23rd overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. As Walden writes, Utah vice president Dennis Lindsey said last month that the team will be looking for a player who brings defensive intensity. Isaiah Stewart, Jaden McDaniels, Josh Green, and Tyrell Terry are just some of the prospects who may be options for the Jazz at No. 23.
- In her latest mailbag, Kendra Andrews of The Athletic discusses what the Nuggets might do in free agency. Andrews was asked frequently about Jerami Grant, who played a pivotal role in Denver’s playoff run, an said that re-signing Grant is a top priority for the Nuggets. He could command a deal in the four-year, $64M range.
- Chris Kine of The Star Tribune examines the next steps for the Timberwolves with the offseason finally here. As things stand, Minnesota has the first overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, which could both the team a good player and fill a need. However, president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas suggested it’s not realistic to address a need in the draft. “Needs have to be addressed in free agency and trades,” Rosas said. “With draft guys it’s a development process. You want it to be right away, but the reality is it’s a two, three, four-year process.” Rosas reiterated that Minnesota is establishing its culture. Meanwhile, Kine argues that the Timberwolves do not have time on their side with both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell looking to win.
After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.
Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.
While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.
Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.
The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Nuggets: +1200
- Rockets: +1200
- Mavericks: +1400
- Trail Blazers: +1800
- Jazz: +2500
- Pelicans: +2500
- Suns: +3300
- Thunder: +4000
- Grizzlies: +5000
- Kings: +12500
- Spurs: +12500
- Timberwolves: +12500
As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.
Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!
- Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell is being fueled by the team’s seven-game loss to the Nuggets, eagerly setting his sights on next season, as relayed by ESPN. “Those guys really did their thing,” Mitchell said of the Nuggets. “But at the end of the day it really kind of pisses you off, I’m not going to lie. You know, we were right there. At the end of the day, that’s what it is — we were right there.”
Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Utah Jazz.
Salary Cap Outlook
The only way the Jazz could realistically create cap space this offseason without cost-cutting roster moves would be if Mike Conley opts out of his $34.5MM salary for 2020/21. That won’t happen, so it’s a safe bet that Utah will operate as an over-the-cap club.
The Jazz’ ability to use their full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) may hinge on how they handle Jordan Clarkson‘s free agency, since a new deal for Clarkson would move team salary much closer to the tax. In that scenario, they may be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM).
Our full salary cap preview for the Jazz can be found right here.
Roster Decisions To Watch
Options:
- Mike Conley, early termination option: $34,502,132
Non-Guaranteed Contracts:
- Georges Niang ($1,783,557)
- Rayjon Tucker ($1,517,981)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $340K.
- Juwan Morgan ($1,517,981)
- Miye Oni ($1,517,981)
- Nigel Williams-Goss ($1,517,981)
Two-Way Contracts:
- Jarrell Brantley (expiring)
- Justin Wright-Foreman (expiring)
Free Agents:
- Jordan Clarkson (Bird)
- Emmanuel Mudiay (Non-Bird)
2020 Draft Assets
First Round:
- No. 23 overall pick
Second Round:
- None
The Jazz could have picked as high as No. 21 in the first round based on their record, which put them in a tie with Houston and Oklahoma City. However, Utah lost the three-way tiebreaker and ended up at No. 23 instead.
Utah’s second-round pick (No. 51) was originally traded to Cleveland during the 2018/19 season for Kyle Korver. It changed hands three more times in subsequent deals, ultimately ending up with Golden State.
Three Key Offseason Questions
1. Will Donovan Mitchell sign a contract extension this offseason?
Both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be eligible to sign new contracts this offseason, but they aren’t necessarily equally likely to get extensions.
Mitchell’s case is the simpler one. Having been drafted in the 2017 lottery, he’s entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension. If he signs a new contract, it would go into effect during the 2021/22 season and could have a starting salary worth up to 25% of that year’s cap — or even 30% of the cap, if he makes an All-NBA team next season.
It seems almost certain that Utah will offer Mitchell a maximum-salary deal sooner rather than later. In the unlikely event that the Jazz were still on the fence about that decision, Mitchell’s performance in seven playoff games this season certainly helped seal the deal — he couldn’t quite lead them to a series win, but averaged 36.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.9 APG with a .529/.516/.948 shooting line.
While negotiations between the two sides should be pretty simple, they’ll need to agree on possible Rose Rule language in an extension. That shouldn’t be too much of a challenge, especially if they use last year’s Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray rookie scale extensions as points of comparison.
The language in Simmons’ agreement with Philadelphia boosted his starting salary to 28% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA nod, and that figure would have increased to 30% if he made the First Team. The language in Murray’s deal with Denver – which included a salary at 26% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA spot – was similar, albeit slightly more team-friendly.
The Jazz and Mitchell should be able to work out something in that same neighborhood, rewarding him with a slightly more lucrative long-term contract if he makes the leap to become an All-NBA player in 2020/21.
2. Will Rudy Gobert sign a new extension of his own this offseason?
Gobert’s extension eligibility will create a trickier situation for the Jazz. At age 28, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year is four years older than Mitchell and it’s unclear whether how much room his game still has to grow, so the club will have to keep that in mind as it considers a new long-term investment.
Mitchell’s next deal will also be a little more cost-controlled than Gobert’s could be. Even with an All-NBA berth next season, Mitchell can’t sign a rookie scale extension exceeding 30% of the cap. Due to Gobert’s All-NBA nods and DPOY awards, he has qualified for a veteran extension that can be worth up to 35% of the cap in 2021/22.
That may not seem like a substantial difference, but it adds up over the course of four or five years. If we assume the cap will be $115MM in 2021/22, an extension starting at 35% of the cap would be worth $40.25MM in year one and $233.45MM over five seasons. A 30% deal would start at $34.5MM and would be worth $200.1MM over five years.
Now, just because Gobert has qualified for a super-max extension doesn’t mean that the Jazz have to offer him one. Standard veteran extension rules would still allow Utah to offer Gobert up to $142.6MM on a four-year extension this offseason and that might be a more appropriate price for a player who is elite defensively but will never be nearly as dangerous on the offensive end.
Still, there are questions that must be addressed here. After two consecutive first-round playoff exits, are the Jazz still all-in on the Gobert/Mitchell duo? Because signing both players to lucrative long-term extensions will eat up a huge portion of the franchise’s cap room for years to come.
From Gobert’s perspective, would an extension offer below the super-max appeal to him? If he doesn’t get a super-max offer, perhaps he’d rather just wait for free agency in 2021 to sign a new deal, giving himself the chance to see what other opportunities are out there. We’ve seen some instances in the past where a team’s unwillingness to put a super-max on the table ultimately led to the player’s exit (ie. Jimmy Butler in Chicago or Kemba Walker in Charlotte).
And while it seemed by the end of Utah’s run in Orlando that any issues were long behind them, it’s worth noting that we’re only six months removed from reports about Mitchell and Gobert working on repairing their relationship after their positive coronavirus tests left them upset at one another. Are they ready to sign up for another five years of playing alongside one another?
I don’t expect the Jazz to seriously consider the idea of trading Gobert this fall. But it will be worth keeping a close eye on extension talks between the two sides — if they don’t work something out, the standout center will be on track to join a star-studded 2021 free agent class, with plenty of teams around the NBA expected to have cap room available.
3. Will the Jazz re-sign Jordan Clarkson?
Barring a shocking opt-out from Mike Conley, Clarkson will be the only key member of the Jazz rotation whose contract is expiring this offseason. His free agency creates a potential dilemma for the franchise.
Acquired last December in a trade with Cleveland, Clarkson immediately added some scoring punch to Utah’s second unit, enjoying one of the best runs of his career in 42 games with the Jazz. He posted 15.6 PPG on .462/.366/.785 shooting during that time, and his numbers didn’t fall off in the postseason either — he scored 16.7 PPG on .464/.347/1.000 shooting in seven playoff contests vs. Denver.
Clarkson’s ability to create his own shot and put the ball in the basket was a welcome addition to a Jazz roster that’s not exactly loaded with scorers, especially when Bojan Bogdanovic‘s season ended early due to wrist surgery. But he’s a somewhat one-dimensional player who’s not exactly an elite defender.
Utah president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey spoke last month about prioritizing defensive-minded players this offseason. While Clarkson’s offense gave the team a boost, would his rotation spot be better utilized by a wing player who’s more capable of slowing down opposing scorers? And if Clarkson isn’t re-signed, will the Jazz have the cap flexibility to acquire a quality player who fits that bill?
If we assume Conley opts in and the Jazz keep their first-round pick while jettisoning their players on non-guaranteed contracts (except for Georges Niang), the team would be on the hook for about $116.4MM for 10 players. Re-signing Clarkson to a deal in the mid-level range would push that figure above $125MM. And if we assume the tax line will once again be $132.6MM, that doesn’t leave enough room below the tax for Utah to use its full mid-level exception.
Using the full MLE without going into the tax would be an option if the team lets Clarkson walk or cuts costs elsewhere, but it remains to be seen if that exception will be enough to acquire an impact rotation player.
A year ago, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Tyus Jones were the players who received most or all of the non-taxpayer MLE. The Jazz may have to determine whether a player in that tier would be a better option than Clarkson — or if a leaguewide reluctance to spend might result in more intriguing options being available.
Given how well Clarkson fit in Utah this past season, I’d be a little surprised if the team simply lets him go. Perhaps a best-case scenario for the Jazz would be re-signing Clarkson at a fair price and then using a portion of the MLE to sign a free agent who lacks a strong track record but has some defensive upside (such as Derrick Jones). Trading for a wing is another possibility, though the Jazz aren’t loaded with a ton of expendable trade assets.
Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Jazz had a relatively successful 2019/20 run, culminating in a first round 4-3 loss to the Nuggets sans start small forward Bojan Bogdanović. As the team looks to improve this offseason, Sarah Todd of The Deseret News assesses possible free agent additions for the Jazz, with input from some Utah fans.
- Kendra Andrews of The Athletic opines that the Nuggets need to stay patient in their pursuit of an NBA championship. Denver had a magical run in the bubble that saw the team overcome two separate 3-1 deficits (Jazz and Clippers) and ultimately fall a few games short of an NBA Finals appearance. Andrews observes that the Nuggets’ roster-building approach has them on the same trajectory that helped Golden State become a dynasty.
- In her latest mailbag, Sarah Todd of The Deseret News explores which free agent reunions with former Jazz players are realistic this offseason. One player frequently mentioned is Derrick Favors, who was traded away last summer to the Pelicans. However, Todd believes that – despite there being a mutual interest between Utah and Favors – he could be out of their price range. Jae Crowder, Justin Holiday, Wesley Matthews, and Jevon Carter are among the other free-agent options mentioned.
The NBA has pushed back next season until January with the hope of having fans in the stands but the expectation of crowds may be optimistic, Mark Medina of USA Today reports. It’s unlikely a COVID-19 vaccine will be widely available at that point and having large crowds in an indoor facility could lead to a super spreader event, according to multiple health experts who spoke to Medina. Rapid testing could make it more feasible to allow fans into indoor arenas, the story adds.
We have more from around the basketball world:
- Western Carolina’s Carlos Dotson has agreed to a deal in France with JSA Bordeaux, JD Shaw of Hoops Rumors tweets. The 24-year-old big man averaged 15.5 PPG and 9.7 RPG last season while receiving SoCon First Team All-Conference honors.
- The Players Association has made committee appointments for the NBA Foundation, created in partnership with the league, as well as the new Social Justice Coalition formed when the players agreed to continue the season in late August, Shams Charania of The Athletic writes. Kings forward Harrison Barnes and 76ers forward Tobias Harris will serve as player reps on the NBA Foundation, while Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell, Trail Blazers forward Carmelo Anthony and Bucks guard Sterling Brown will serve on the Social Justice Coalition.
- NBPA executive director Michele Roberts anticipates that free agency will begin no later than December 1st. Get the details here.