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How 2020 All-NBA Picks Could Impact Contract Situations

April 29th, 2020 at 1:27pm CST by Luke Adams

All-NBA selections have become more important than ever in recent years, since teams can agree to increase the overall value of certain maximum-salary contracts based on whether or not a player has earned All-NBA honors in a given season.

Those higher max salaries are also available to players who win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but there’s only one of each of those awards per year. There are 15 All-NBA players annually, creating more opportunities for players to become eligible for those more lucrative contracts, informally known as “super-max” deals.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the “Designated Veteran Extension,” a player with between seven and nine years of NBA experience who meets certain contract criteria and hasn’t changed teams since the end of his rookie contract become eligible for a maximum salary worth 35% of the cap – instead of 30% – if he was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

Similar incentives are available for players coming off their rookie scale contracts, as noted in our glossary entry on the “Derrick Rose Rule.” Those players can earn max deals worth up to 30% of the cap instead of 25% if they were named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

The differences between the various levels of maximum salaries can be substantial over the course of a long-term contract. For instance, in 2019/20, a five-year max contract that starts at 25% of the cap and includes 8% annual raises is worth just over $158MM. By comparison, a five-year deal that starts at 35% of the cap with 8% annual raises is worth over $221MM. A five-year contract at the 30% max falls in between, at about $190MM.

We don’t know yet what this year’s All-NBA teams will look like – or even when voting will take place – but as our informal polls last week showed, there are a number of candidates whose future earnings could be affected by whether or not they earn one of those 15 spots.

Let’s take a closer look at some of those players…

Players who have already qualified for super-max contracts:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

Antetokounmpo and Gobert didn’t even need to rely on All-NBA spots to qualify for super-max contracts — Giannis’ MVP award last year and Gobert’s back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards in 2018 and 2019 secured their eligibility.

Because both players only had six years of experience entering the 2019/20 season, they had to wait one more year to be eligible to actually receive super-max extension offers, which would be worth 35% of the cap instead of 30%.

Antetokounmpo is a lock to receive such an offer from the Bucks, who have publicly said they’ll put it on the table as soon as they can. That was supposed to happen this July, but the NBA’s hiatus has thrown that timeline into flux. Whenever Milwaukee makes its offer, it would be for a five-year extension that would start in 2021/22 and be worth 35% of that season’s cap.

Gobert’s outlook is cloudier. He could also sign a five-year, 35% max-salary extension that would start in 2021/22, but he’s not at the same level of superstardom that Giannis is, so it remains to be seen how aggressive the Jazz will actually be in attempting to lock him up beyond next season.

Players whose already-signed rookie extensions would be impacted by an All-NBA selection:

Pascal Siakam (Raptors)
Ben Simmons (Sixers)

Siakam and Simmons signed maximum-salary rookie scale extensions with their respective teams last fall. Both contracts will go into effect in 2020/21 and both include Rose Rule language, meaning they’ll be among the players closely monitoring this year’s All-NBA results.

In our series of polls, Siakam earned a spot on the All-NBA Second Team. However, I think there’s a real possibility he could end up on the Third Team. Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard will likely receive more votes than Siakam. Anthony Davis will place higher than Siakam too if voters consider him a forward. And even if Davis is listed as a center, Jayson Tatum is among those who should give Siakam a strong push for that Second Team forward spot.

While Siakam might be satisfied to end up on any All-NBA team, a spot on the Second Team would be far more satisfying from a financial perspective. His deal calls for a starting salary worth 28% of the cap if he earns All-NBA Second Team honors, but just 25% if he makes the Third Team.

As we outlined in the fall, that difference would have been worth nearly $16MM over four years based on a $116MM cap. The cap is no longer expected to get that high, but even so, missing out on a Second Team spot would cost Siakam millions.

As for Simmons, he wasn’t one of the 15 players voted to an All-NBA team by Hoops Rumors readers, but he looks to me like a viable candidate for the Third Team. If he makes the Third Team, his starting salary would be 28% of next year’s cap, rather than the 25% he’d get if he doesn’t make an All-NBA squad. Those three percentage points would impact Simmons even more than they would Siakam over the life of their contracts, since Simmons’ five-year deal runs for an extra season and the amount of the annual raises are based on the starting salary.

Nuggets guard Jamal Murray also signed a rookie scale extension with Rose Rule language, but isn’t a realistic candidate for an All-NBA nod.

Players whose next contract could be impacted by an All-NBA selection this season:

Joel Embiid (Sixers)
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans)

If Embiid – who was voted onto Hoops Rumors’ All-NBA Third Team – earns an All-NBA spot this season after doing so last year, he’d be in the same position heading into 2020/21 that Antetokounmpo and Gobert were entering 2019 — he’d have qualified for a super-max extension, but wouldn’t yet be eligible to sign one.

Once the 2021/22 league year begins, Embiid would have seven years of NBA experience, with All-NBA nods in at least two of the last three years, making him eligible to sign a four-year super-max extension that would begin in 2023/24, with a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. Even if Embiid doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season, doing so next year would still make him eligible for that same deal.

As for Ingram, he’s a long shot to be named to an All-NBA team, but in the unlikely event that he is, he’d be eligible to sign for a starting salary of up to 30% of the cap on a new free agent contract with the Pelicans. No other team looking to sign him to an offer sheet could exceed 25% of the cap in that scenario.

Other players to start monitoring if they earn All-NBA honors this season:

Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Devin Booker (Suns)
Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)
Jayson Tatum (Celtics)
Trae Young (Hawks)

These players fall into a few separate sub-categories. Jokic and Booker, for instance, are in their fifth seasons and on their second NBA contracts. An All-NBA spot – which is far likelier for Jokic – would be a good start toward earning super-max eligibility, but they’d still have to make another All-NBA team in either 2021 or 2022 to become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2022.

Doncic, an All-NBA lock, and Young, a lesser candidate, are only in their second NBA seasons. If they were to make All-NBA teams this year and next, they’d be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions with starting salaries worth up to 30% of the cap during the 2021 offseason. Those deals would go into effect in 2022/23.

Adebayo, Mitchell, and Tatum are all in their third seasons and will be extension-eligible during the 2020 offseason. Earning an All-NBA spot this year actually wouldn’t do much for their Rose Rule eligibility — they’d still have to do it again in 2021 to qualify, since the criteria calls for an All-NBA berth in either the season before the new contract begins or in two of the three prior seasons.

Still, earning All-NBA honors this year would give those three players additional leverage to negotiate Rose Rule language into their potential rookie scale extensions, which would go into effect in 2021/22.

Strong All-NBA candidates who are notably ineligible for super-max contracts:

Bradley Beal (Wizards)
Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Beal was in position to qualify for a super-max extension if he had earned All-NBA honors this season, but the short-term contract extension he signed last October eliminated that possibility. By the time that extension expires, he’ll have 10 years of NBA experience and will be eligible for the 35% max anyway.

Davis has the right amount of NBA experience to gain eligibility and should be an All-NBA lock, but the fact that he changed teams last summer ensures he’ll no longer qualify for a Designated Veteran Contract this offseason — he missed out on the possibility of the super-max as soon as he left the Pelicans.

Various other All-NBA candidates won’t meet the super-max criteria for various reasons. Some, like James Harden, are already on a super-max contract. Others, such as LeBron James, already have 10+ years of experience and can’t qualify for a higher max than the 35% they already get. Recently changing teams (ie. Jimmy Butler) or signing new long-term deals (ie. Khris Middleton) also remove certain players from super-max contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mike Conley Discusses Transition To Utah

April 29th, 2020 at 12:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Although his first season with the Jazz has been a little up and down on the court, Mike Conley said in a Twitter Q&A on Tuesday that the transition to Utah itself has been as smooth as he could have hoped. “Salt Lake has been unbelievable to me,” Conley said, per Sarah Todd of The Deseret News. “My family loves it. Obviously some of the best fans in the world. Truly a different experience for us, I think being in the mountains and altitude has been an adjustment. But, everywhere you go everyone is a diehard Jazz fan and truly care about you and your family.”

Ingles Headed To Australia After Retirement

April 27th, 2020 at 6:56pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jazz swingman Joe Ingles plans to return to Australia when he retires but he’s not sure what the future holds when his current contract expires, according to Aaron Falk of the team’s website. “My whole plan was to play out my deal and make a decision after that,” Ingles said. “But if it’s time to go home and put them in school and settle down, that’s obviously my first priority. It’s not whether I want to keep playing. It’s a family deal.” Ingles is signed through the 2021/22 season, including a one-year, $13MM extension he signed last October.

Donovan Mitchell Untouchable In Trade Talks?

April 21st, 2020 at 11:44pm CST by ChrisCrouse

A recent rift between Jazz All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert led to speculation that the Jazz may be forced to move one or the other this offseason, but that is not the case.

Mitchell and Gobert admitted to going through a rough patch after both players tested positive for COVID-19, with reports suggesting that Gobert was cavalier with teammates and their belongings leading up to his diagnosis. However, the two Jazz cornerstones are said to be repairing their relationship and are expected to remain together for the foreseeable future.

Utah has no plans to trade either player and Mitchell should be considered “untouchable” in trade talks, Tony Jones of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag. Jones, who addressed a reader’s question on the matter, cites Mitchell’s talent as well as his involvement in Utah’s community and his contract status as reasons why the Jazz are unlikely to consider a move.

Mitchell has one more year left on his rookie-scale contract, though he’s expected to sign an extension this summer. Gobert has just one season left on his deal. The center will make approximately $26.5MM during the 2020/21 campaign.

Conley Isn't Concerned About Chemistry

April 17th, 2020 at 6:27pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jazz point guard Mike Conley isn’t concerned about a rift between teammates Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, according to ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk. Gobert and Mitchell are trying to repair their relationship after Mitchell felt Gobert’s careless actions led to his positive test for COVID-19. “They’re fine,” Conley said. “They’re competitors. They want to win.” Conley feels confident that there won’t be any locker room issues when the hiatus ends. “Our team chemistry has been as solid as ever and I am excited to hopefully get out there soon once this thing gets under control,” he said.

Gobert, Mitchell Work On Repairing Relationship

April 13th, 2020 at 9:02am CST by Luke Adams

A report last Friday from The Athletic indicated that a rift still exists between Jazz stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, stemming from their positive coronavirus tests last month and the cavalier attitude Gobert reportedly showed with teammates and their belongings in the days leading up to his diagnosis.

One source who spoke to The Athletic even went so far as to say that the relationship between Mitchell and Gobert “doesn’t appear salvageable,” but the two All-Stars spoke on the phone on Saturday, sources tell Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). According to Haynes, the conversation went well and represented the first step toward repairing that relationship.

Prior to Haynes’ report, Gobert himself revealed that conversation with Mitchell during an Instagram Live interview with Taylor Rooks of Bleacher Report on Sunday.

“It is true that we didn’t speak for a while, a few days, but we did speak a few days ago and we’re both ready to go out there and try to win a championship for this team,” Gobert told Rooks (video link). “It’s all about being a professional. Everyone’s got different relationships, it’s never perfect — people that are married, it’s never perfect. So me and my teammates, it’s far from perfect. But at the end of the day, we both want the same thing — and it’s winning. We’re both grown men, we’re both gonna do what it takes to win.”

There has been a perception over the last few weeks that Mitchell has been the one angry at Gobert for not taking COVID-19 seriously before testing positive. However, a source tells Haynes (Twitter link) that both players had issues with one another. The Saturday phone call between the two teammates was a good first step, though there’s still work to be done to fully mend fences, Haynes adds.

Speaking to Rooks, Gobert expressed confidence that he and Mitchell will patch things up and suggested that their rough patch shouldn’t be atop anyone’s list of concerns when it comes to the effects of coronavirus pandemic.

“It’s not really about me and Donovan — this little fight is no fight,” Gobert said, per Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. “It’s about thousands of people are dying every day, and it’s all about, ‘What can we do to help? What can we do to bring some positive?’ And at the end of the day, that’s really what my focus is on right now.”

Trades Suggested For Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert

April 11th, 2020 at 3:48pm CST by Arthur Hill

Andy Bailey of Bleacher Report suggests five potential trades if the Jazz can’t resolve the reported rift between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Bailey sees the Knicks, Mavericks and Bulls as possible destinations for Gobert, while the Thunder and Nuggets may be able to swing a deal for Mitchell.

Rift Still Exists Between Jazz Stars Mitchell, Gobert

April 10th, 2020 at 10:22am CST by Luke Adams

In the wake of his positive test for COVID-19 last month, Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell was said to be frustrated with teammate Rudy Gobert. The All-Star center, who had tested positive for the coronavirus a day earlier, had reportedly shown a cavalier attitude toward teammates and their belongings in the locker room before finding out he was affected by COVID-19.

While both of Utah’s stars have now been cleared of the coronavirus for approximately two weeks, sources tell Shams Charania, Sam Amick, and Tony Jones of The Athletic that the Mitchell/Gobert relationship remains tense.

According to The Athletic’s report, the Jazz have begun to work on repairing that relationship, but Mitchell has been reluctant to mend fences, with one source with knowledge of the situation going so far as to say that the relationship “doesn’t appear salvageable.”

The Jazz remain hopeful that things will improve over time, a stance that teammate Joe Ingles also took when he recently spoke to The Athletic.

“I’m confident our team is going to be totally fine,” Ingles said. “I heard Donovan’s response (on Good Morning America), or whatever it was, to that question, and a part of that is on Donovan and Rudy to sort out if he’s frustrated with him or whatever. But I have no doubt when we go back to training, or when our season starts again, our team is going to be what we have been and what we are. … I’m confident our team will be completely fine. The chemistry will be fine.”

According to Charania, Amick, and Jones, the Jazz have attempted to impart to Mitchell that there’s no way of knowing whether he contracted the virus from Gobert or vice versa — or whether the two players got it from separate sources.

However, The Athletic’s report notes that Utah management and the club’s coaching staff were ahead of the curve in educating Jazz players about the virus, discussing it for the first time in a team meeting on February 25, several days before the NBA sent out its first league-wide memo about the subject. As such, it makes sense that Mitchell would be frustrated by Gobert continuing to downplay the issue on March 9, the day the big man jokingly touched several reporters’ microphones during a media session.

As The Athletic’s reporters point out, with no end to the NBA’s hiatus in sight, there should still be plenty of time for Mitchell and Gobert to sort things out before they take the court together.

Five Western FAs-To-Be Who Boosted Their Value In 2019/20

April 9th, 2020 at 3:40pm CST by Luke Adams

On Wednesday, we examined five 2020 free agents in the Eastern Conference who had impressive contract years, increasing their value right before they reach the open market. Today, we’re shifting our focus to the Western Conference, where there are many more than five candidates for this list.

Kings swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell, and Suns center Aron Baynes are among the players who had strong 2019/20 seasons and established themselves as desirable free agent targets. But we’re focusing on five different players in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Brandon Ingram, F (Pelicans) (RFA): Most of the players who would have been 2020’s top restricted free agents signed contract extensions last fall. It made sense that Ingram – who had yet to play a game for the Pelicans and whose 2018/19 season ended due to a blood clot issue – didn’t get one, but his play in ’19/20 showed that New Orleans would have been wise to take the risk. After averaging 24.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.3 APG (all career highs) and emerging as an All-Star, Ingram may now require a maximum-salary investment once his rookie contract expires.
Dwight Howard, C (Lakers): Not only did Howard receive a minimum-salary contract from the Lakers last summer — the deal wasn’t even guaranteed. Although many NBA observers were ready to write off the eight-time All-NBA center a year ago, he has shown that he’s still got something left in the tank, averaging 7.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 1.2 BPG in a part-time role (19.2 MPG) for the Lakers. Most crucially, he was willing to accept a career-low usage rate (14.2%) and remained healthy all season long, appearing in 62 of L.A.’s 63 games. It seems safe to assume his next contract will be guaranteed — it should be worth more than the minimum too.
Jordan Clarkson, SG (Jazz): After making just 32.4% of his three-point attempts in 2018/19, Clarkson entered the season looking to shake a reputation as a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer who didn’t bring a whole lot else to the table. A move to Utah gave him the opportunity to do so, and he emerged as a key weapon off the bench for the Jazz, averaging 15.6 PPG on 48.2% shooting in 34 games (25.3 MPG) following his trade out of Cleveland. Clarkson may not get a raise on the $13MM+ salary he’s earning this season, but after making a case for Sixth Man of the Year, he should still do pretty well on his next deal.
Malik Beasley, SG (Timberwolves) (RFA): Unlike Clarkson, whose stock rose when he got the opportunity to play important minutes for a playoff team, Beasley boosted his value when he was dealt from the Nuggets to the lottery-bound Timberwolves. Having been in and out of Denver’s rotation all season long, Beasley started all 14 games he played for Minnesota and fully took advantage of his regular role (33.1 MPG), averaging 20.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG with an impressive .472/.426/.750 shooting line. Beasley reportedly turned down a three-year extension worth more than $30MM last offseason, and while it seemed for much of the season like that may have been a mistake, he could now be in line for an even bigger payday with the Wolves.
De’Anthony Melton, G (Grizzlies) (RFA): Melton’s basic stats – 8.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.0 APG, and .419/.316/.821 shooting – aren’t major improvements on the numbers he put up as a rookie in Phoenix. However, in his first season, he was thrust into a starting role for the bottom-feeding team Suns because they had few alternatives. In Memphis, Melton earned rotation minutes for a playoff contender. He was arguably the Grizzlies’ best perimeter defender, and his on/off-court splits reflected his value — the club had a +6.2 net rating when he played, compared to a -4.2 rating when he sat. A minimum-salary bargain this season, Melton is due a raise in restricted free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NBA, ESPN Announce Details Of H-O-R-S-E Competition

April 9th, 2020 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

As expected, Thunder guard Chris Paul, Hawks guard Trae Young, and Bulls guard Zach LaVine are among the players who will participate in the H-O-R-S-E competition being organized by the NBA, NBPA, and ESPN, per a press release.

According to the announcement, Jazz guard Mike Conley, former NBA stars Chauncey Billups and Paul Pierce, newly-elected Hall-of-Famer Tamika Catchings, and three-time WNBA All-Star Allie Quigley will fill out the eight-person field for the event.

The four quarterfinal matchups will air on Sunday evening (April 12), with Young facing Billups and Catchings facing Conley in group one, while LaVine goes up against Pierce and Paul squares off against Quigley in group two. The group one winners will face one another in the first semifinal next Thursday (April 16), with the group two winners competing in the second semifinal. The final will take place on the same night.

A coin toss will determine which player starts each matchup. Each player will be required to describe his or her shot attempt beforehand and dunking won’t be permitted. ESPN’s Mark Jones will serve as the event’s host, with each player attempting shots from his or her own home gym.

The event will raise more than $200K in support of coronavirus relief efforts.