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How Starter Criteria Will Impact QOs For Potential 2024 RFAs

April 7th, 2024 at 4:40pm CST by Luke Adams

As we outlined in a glossary entry earlier today, the value of a qualifying offer for a player eligible for restricted free agency can increase or decrease depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency — or if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

In many cases, the difference in the qualifying offer amounts is negligible. For instance, since the Sixers will almost certainly sign Tyrese Maxey to a long-term, maximum-salary contract this summer, it doesn’t really matter that he has bumped the value of his qualifying offer a little by meeting the starter criteria.

But in other cases, the adjusted qualifying offer amount could have a real impact on how a player’s free agency plays out by making his team more or less likely to actually issue the QO — and by making the player more or less likely to accept it.

Here are the players whose projected qualifying offers will change as a result of the starter criteria this season:

Players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 who met the starter criteria:

Saddiq Bey (Hawks)
Tyrese Maxey (Sixers)
Immanuel Quickley (Raptors)

Bey, Maxey, and Quickley would have had qualifying offers worth $6,498,258, $6,259,588, and $6,128,004, respectively, if they had fallen short of the starter criteria. Instead, their QOs will each be worth $8,486,620.

As noted above, the QO change won’t have any effect on Maxey’s free agency. It’s unlikely to affect Quickley either, since the Raptors will be looking to sign him to a multiyear deal. But it could make a difference for Bey, who tore his ACL last month to bring an up-and-down season to an early end.

A healthy Bey would probably be a safe bet to to get his qualifying offer despite a disappointing season, but ACL recoveries are lengthy processes. If Bey isn’t going to play much – or at all – next season, will the Hawks want to risk him accepting a one-year qualifying offer worth $8.5MM that would set him up to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025?

That QO decision will likely depend on whether or not the Hawks envision Bey as part of their long-term future and whether they expect to reach a multiyear agreement with him.

Second-round picks or undrafted free agents who met the starter criteria:

Simone Fontecchio (Pistons)

An experienced veteran who will turn 29 later this year, Fontecchio spent the first part of his career playing in Europe and has just two years of NBA experience, so he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer. His qualifying offer got bumped from $3,806,090 to $5,216,324 when he met the starter criteria.

Fontecchio has been a bright spot in Detroit, averaging 15.4 points per game with a .426 3PT% in 16 games as a Piston. Based on those numbers – and his solid first-half play in Utah – the Italian wing is probably in line for a salary exceeding $5.2MM, which means the QO bump shouldn’t be a difference-maker.

Top-14 picks who won’t meet the starter criteria:

Kira Lewis (Jazz)
Obi Toppin (Pacers)
James Wiseman (Pistons)

As a former No. 2 overall pick, Wiseman would have been in line for a qualifying offer worth $15,815,870 if he had made at least 41 starts or played 2,000 minutes. Because he fell short, his actual QO will be worth less than half that ($7,744,600).

Wiseman hasn’t shown a whole lot in Detroit, averaging just 6.9 points and 5.0 rebounds in 16.6 minutes per game this season across 59 appearances. But the Pistons will have a ton of cap room this offseason — maybe they’d be comfortable bringing back Wiseman for one more year and trying again to unlock his full potential if the price is just $7.7MM instead of $15.8MM. I’m still skeptical he’ll get that qualifying offer, but it’ll at least be a tougher decision now.

Toppin’s qualifying offer, meanwhile, will drop from $9,170,460 to $7,744,600, but I think the Pacers would have extended it either way. The former No. 8 overall pick has had his best season in 2023/24 as a reserve in Indiana, establishing new career highs in points per game (10.1), field goal percentage (57.2%), and three-point percentage (40.3%), among other categories.

The qualifying offer change for Lewis is marginal — his QO will dip by less than $200K from $7,913,687. He’s unlikely to receive it either way.

It’s worth noting that three other top-14 picks from the 2020 draft met the starter criteria this season. The qualifying offers for Bulls forward Patrick Williams and Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro will remain at $12,973,527 and $11,828,974, respectively. Those aren’t cheap, but I’d still be a little surprised if either team decides to pass on the QO.

Former Pistons guard Killian Hayes also met the starter criteria, but was later waived, so he won’t get a qualifying offer this June. If he had remained under contract and was eligible to receive one, it would have been worth $9,942,114.

Mac McClung Wins G League MVP Award

April 5th, 2024 at 1:55pm CST by Luke Adams

Mac McClung hasn’t been on an NBA roster since October, but the 25-year-old won a second straight Slam Dunk contest in February and has now earned another notable honor: McClung is this season’s NBA G League Most Valuable Player, the league announced today (Twitter link).

McClung spent the 2023/24 season playing for the Osceola Magic, Orlando’s NBAGL affiliate. In 27 regular season games, he averaged a league-high 25.7 points to go along with 6.6 assists, and 4.7 rebounds in 35.4 minutes per contest, with a shooting line of .509/.396/.843. Osceola finished as the No. 1 seed in the East at 22-12 and will face the Long Island Nets on Friday in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

McClung also appeared in 14 Showcase Cup games for the Magic’s G League team earlier this season, averaging 25.2 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 4.3 RPG on .464/.357/.851 shooting.

McClung has only appeared in four career NBA games since going undrafted out of Texas Tech in 2021. However, he has made a name himself as a Slam Dunk champion and has had stints with some of the league’s marquee franchises, including the Lakers, Sixers, and Bulls.

McClung’s G League MVP award is also the latest addition to an increasingly decorated NBAGL résumé — he was the G League’s Rookie of the Year in 2022 and won a title with the Delaware Blue Coats in 2023.

Sioux Falls Skyforce guard Alondes Williams, who is on a two-way contract with the Heat, was the runner-up in the NBAGL MVP vote, which was conducted by the league’s 31 head coaches and GMs.

The third-place finisher was forward Kenneth Lofton Jr., who played for the Grizzlies and Sixers earlier this season and is now a member of the Jazz. He suited up for the Memphis Hustle in the Showcase Cup and the Blue Coats and Salt Lake City Stars during the G League’s regular season.

Coaching Rumors: Nets, Wizards, Hornets, Pistons, Blazers

April 5th, 2024 at 11:20am CST by Luke Adams

People around the NBA expect the Nets‘ head coaching search this spring to be “wide-ranging,” with less of a specific archetype for the preferred candidate in Brooklyn than there might be in Charlotte or Washington, writes Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports.

The Hornets and Wizards will be focused on landing “the right development-minded coaches to enhance a youth movement,” Fischer continues, whereas the Nets are expected to consider a broader mix of experienced coaches and potential first-timers.

Fischer mentions Mike Budenholzer and James Borrego as a couple veterans who may appeal to Brooklyn, given their San Antonio ties to Nets head of basketball operations Sean Marks. As for possible first-time head coaches, sources tell Yahoo Sports that Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant has been mentioned as a potential candidate for the top job in Brooklyn.

Here are more coaching-related notes and rumors from Fischer:

Wizards interim head coach Brian Keefe is expected to receive serious consideration for the permanent job in Washington despite a 8-26 (.235) record since he replaced Wes Unseld Jr., league sources tell Fischer.
In addition to the four candidates the Hornets have received permission to interview so far, Heat assistant Chris Quinn and Jazz assistant Lamar Skeeter are two more names expected to factor into Charlotte’s search, Fischer reports. Quinn interviewed for the job in 2022 and made a strong impression on Hornets decision-makers at that time, Fischer writes, though a new front office will be leading the search this time around.
Charles Lee, one of the candidates Charlotte has been granted permission to interview, was in Atlanta while new Hornets co-owner Rick Schnall and executive VP of basketball operations Jeff Peterson were with the Hawks, Fischer observes, noting that Lee appears to be a strong candidate in Charlotte’s head coaching search.
There has been “ongoing speculation” among rival front offices about Monty Williams‘ future with the Pistons, but Fischer hears from a source with knowledge of the situation that there’s no indication Williams would be open to a buyout from his six-year, $78MM+ contract following his first season in Detroit.
There has also been speculation in coaching circles about the possibility that the Trail Blazers will make a coaching change this spring, Fischer says, though Chauncey Billups told Yahoo Sports that he’s eager to try to lead Portland back to the postseason in 2024/25. “I’m light years ahead of where I was when I took the job, obviously being a first-time (head) coach,” Billups said. “And I’m really ready for that challenge and that pressure to go out and compete with these best teams and stuff. I’m really ready for that. So, I just hope that we can be in that position, that’s all.”

Northwest Notes: Zanik, Sensabaugh, Gobert, Jokic

April 1st, 2024 at 11:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Jazz general manager Justin Zanik underwent a physical last fall that revealed he’s suffering from kidney failure, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. Doctors diagnosed Zanik with Polycystic Kidney Disease and determined that he only had 14% of his kidney left. PKD causes cysts to grow on the kidney, eventually leaving it unable to function. Zanik went through the process of finding a donor and will undergo a transplant on Tuesday.

“I’m a fixer by nature,” he said. “My job with the Jazz, my role with my family — I mean, I was a [player] agent for 15 years. I fixed a lot of s–t. I’m the one who’s supposed to help. I’m the one who’s supposed to take care of everything. I really didn’t know how to ask for help, but I had to get over it. I knew I had to get over it.”

Zanik will remain in the University of Utah’s hospital for several days once the procedure is complete, and doctors will need a few weeks to monitor how his body adjusts to the new kidney. He’ll recuperate for most of April, but he has told friends that he expects to be fully running the team again in time for draft day in June and the start of free agency in July.

The Jazz released a statement as Zanik prepares for Tuesday’s operation: “The Utah Jazz send our love and support to General Manager Justin Zanik, his wife Gina, and their family as Justin prepares for a kidney transplant to address polycystic kidney disease (PKD), a genetic disorder that affects kidney function. JZ is an instrumental part of our organization, and we look forward to his return in the coming weeks.”

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

Jazz rookie Brice Sensabaugh had been struggling with his three-point shooting before going 5-of-10 from beyond the arc Sunday night, notes Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune. Sensabaugh said it’s been an adjustment getting used to the NBA’s longer three-point line. “It’s not crazy, but during the flow of the game, it’s not even the distance, but the line can mess with your head sometimes. It’s just like kind of a mental thing a little bit,” he said.
Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert was upset after battling for a rebound with Chicago’s Alex Caruso on Sunday, tweets Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. “I had a knee injury a couple years ago on the same play and missed a month because someone ran into my knee,” Gobert said. “I hope they look at this, because if they don’t hold people accountable, I’m gonna hold them accountable myself.”
Nuggets center Nikola Jokic isn’t concerned about the inflammation that’s forcing him to play with tape on his right wrist, per Johnny Askounis of Eurohoops. “I don’t know if rest can help me. In my opinion, it is an injury that I can play with,” Jokic said Sunday after posting 26 points, 18 rebounds and 16 assists in Sunday’s win over Cleveland. “I feel it, but I can play with it. It kind of bothers me. So, I am kind of used to it.”

Losses Pile Up As Jazz Start Three Rookies

March 30th, 2024 at 9:52pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Jazz dropped their eighth straight game Friday night as they deal with the realities of starting three rookies, notes Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune. Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh are struggling with efficiency as they get accustomed to playing big minutes at the NBA level, but the organization is committed to all three players, with coach Will Hardy complimenting George on his mental approach to the game. “Keyonte is really, really smart. He’s really, really smart in general, and that applies to basketball,” Hardy said. “He watches a lot on his own, which is very rare these days. He’s at home watching League Pass, watching games. So with that he has pretty quick recognition of things. He has an ability to learn things fast. He has really good recall. He can remember plays that we ran three weeks ago that we haven’t scripted in a while.”

Lauri Markkanen Likely Done For Season

March 30th, 2024 at 7:35pm CST by Arthur Hill

An MRI conducted Friday on Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen revealed that he re-aggravated an impingement to his right shoulder, the team announced (via Twitter). Doctors plan to reevaluate Markkanen in two weeks, which effectively ends his season.

Markkanen was feeling discomfort in the shoulder after playing 42 minutes in Wednesday’s game against San Antonio, the Jazz added. He missed more than two weeks earlier this month due to a right quadriceps contusion.

Injuries limited Markkanen to just 55 games in his second year with Utah. His numbers were down slightly from his All-Star season in 2022/23, but he still averaged 23.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 33.1 minutes per night while shooting 48% from the field and 39.9% from three-point range.

Markkanen’s $18MM contract for next season currently carries just a partial guarantee of $6MM and won’t officially become fully guaranteed until two days before the start of this year’s moratorium. That figures to become a moot point, though, as Markkanen is expected to pursue a renegotiation and long-term extension with the Jazz this summer.

Northwest Notes: Murray, SGA, Sharpe, Wolves, Jazz

March 30th, 2024 at 4:08pm CST by Luke Adams

Jamal Murray continues to deal with a sprained left ankle and swollen right knee, having missed a fourth consecutive game on Friday vs. Minnesota. According to a report from ESPN, Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters before Friday’s game that Murray is improving, but said he’s “not ready to go out there and compete at the level that we need him to” and hinted that the star guard may remain out for Sunday’s game vs. Cleveland.

Still, Malone isn’t worried at this point that Murray’s health issues will extend into the postseason, adding, “I do think he will be back on the court before the playoffs start.”

It should be an eventful spring and summer for Murray, assuming he gets – and stays – healthy. After seeking a second straight NBA championship with the Nuggets, the 27-year-old hopes to suit up for the Canadian national team at the Olympics in Paris, he confirmed to Eurohoops.

“I’m excited to be there,” he said. “We have a great squad, (it) was great to see them win a medal (at the 2023 World Cup). Hopefully, we can go our way and win gold this summer.”

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a second consecutive game on Friday vs. Phoenix due to his right quad contusion. Head coach Mark Daigneault said that Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to be considered day-to-day, so there’s no indication at this point that the injury will result in an extended absence (Twitter link via Joel Lorenzi of The Oklahoman).
Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe, who is recovering from core muscle surgery, is with the team on its current seven-game road trip and will continue to be evaluated after participating in non-contact and conditioning drills in the G League earlier this week, per the club (Twitter link). Sharpe hasn’t played since January 11, but there’s still hope that he’ll return in the season’s final two weeks.
Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch said on Friday that he has great relationships with Glen Taylor, Marc Lore, and Alex Rodriguez, so he won’t be taking sides in the franchise’s ownership struggle and doesn’t expect the situation to affect his team at “troop level,” tweets Chris Hine of The Star Tribune. “If there was ever a definition of ‘above your pay grade,’ this is it,” Finch added.
After expressing some concern in mid-February about the frustration level in the Jazz‘s locker room, Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune says the locker room vibes in Utah are “way better” now. However, that comes with an important caveat — according to Larsen, since the Jazz have fallen out of the postseason race, they’re no longer as stressed about winning games, as “the sting of losing is absolutely gone.”

Northwest Notes: SGA, Wiggins, Jazz, Murray

March 27th, 2024 at 9:10pm CST by Rory Maher

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — one of leading MVP candidates in 2023/24 — missed his second game of the season on Wednesday against Houston due to a right quad contusion, tweets Tim MacMahon of ESPN.

According to MacMahon, Gilgeous-Alexander has been been dealing with the injury for a while — he was kneed in the quad a week ago.

It’s a big game for both teams, but particularly the Rockets, who are trying to win their 10th straight game and stay on the heels of the Warriors for the final spot in the West’s play-in tournament. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is trying to secure the No. 1 seed — the Thunder currently trail the Nuggets by a half-game.

Here’s more from the Northwest:

Third-year wing Aaron Wiggins has been a rotation regular for the Thunder for much of ’23/24, but he was a healthy scratch in Wednesday’s victory in New Orleans. When asked what led to the decision, head coach Mark Daigneault, said it wasn’t in his game plan. “He was live,” Daigneault said, per Joel Lorenzi of The Oklahoman (Twitter link). “I just thought with the start we got off to, with the groups that were out there, I just kind of rolled with them. And it kind of drifted him out of rotation and it wasn’t necessarily pre-planned. In fact, I was planning on using him but we were in such a good rhythm.” OKC holds a $1,988,598 team option on Wiggins for ’24/25.
The postseason is now out of reach amid a slide down the standings since the All-Star break, but the Jazz are still trying to find ways to motivate themselves as the season winds down, writes Tony Jones of The Athletic. “We might not make a deep run … this year, but everybody has something to play for,” Forward Lauri Markkanen said. “Individually, you’ve got to find it and lean into it. We have to set the standard on how we want to play. We have to come out and play hard and play together, and we have to play with pride. So I think there is always something that you can do to improve, and we have to do a lot of that as a team.”
Speaking of the Jazz, a big part of their recent struggles has been an inept defense, which now ranks dead last in the NBA. As Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune writes (subscription required), Utah is the worst defensive team in the league by a significant margin over the past 10 games. While the roster may not be built to be stout defensively, Larsen argues the Jazz should at least be “acceptable” on that end, and they haven’t been, especially lately.
Nuggets guard Jamal Murray has missed the past two games with an ankle injury, and he missed his third straight contest on Wednesday vs. Phoenix. However, the injury designation changed — according to Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports (Twitter link), Murray is out with right knee inflammation. The 27-year-old “looked pretty good” as he went through a “lengthy shooting routine” before the game, Wind tweets. That suggests Murray’s injuries aren’t particularly serious, which is certainly good news for Denver.

Dunn Suspended Two Games, Smith Jr. Gets One-Game Ban For Fight

March 24th, 2024 at 6:21pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jazz guard Kris Dunn has been suspended two games without pay for initiating an altercation and throwing a punch at Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr., the NBA announced today in a press release (via Twitter). Smith has been suspended one game for the fight.

The incident, for which both Dunn and Smith Jr. were assessed technical fouls and ejected, occurred with 11:55 remaining in the second quarter of the Rockets’ 147-119 win over the Jazz on Saturday.

Dunn will begin to serve his suspension on Monday, when the Jazz host the Mavericks. Smith will also serve his suspension Monday when the Rockets host the Trail Blazers.

“I think Dunn hit him with a shot, and then, they got wrapped up and threw a few punches,” Houston coach Ime Udoka said of Saturday’s skirmish. “Basically, nothing landed, but as soon as you throw a punch, you’re going to be ejected.”

The suspension will cost Dunn a total of $35,678, while Smith loses $53,601, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks. Despite only being suspended for a single game and losing a smaller percentage of his salary per game, Smith is earning over $9.3MM this season, dwarfing Dunn’s $2.6MM salary, which is why the penalty costs him more.

Is Keyonte George's High Turnover Rate A Concern?

March 23rd, 2024 at 9:52pm CST by Arthur Hill

Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune examines the high turnover rate for Jazz rookie guard Keyonte George and how it might impact his NBA future.