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Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Nik Stauskas (Nets)
Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
Zach LaVine (Bulls)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Elfrid Payton (Suns)
Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
Clint Capela (Rockets)
Kyle Anderson (Spurs)

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Poll: Who Is 2017/18 NBA Rookie Of The Year?

April 9th, 2018 at 11:21am CST by Luke Adams

The 2017/18 NBA rookie class has looked deep and impressive this season, with many players from last year’s draft already assuming key roles on their NBA clubs. However, the battle for this season’s Rookie of the Year has essentially been a two-man race for months. With apologies to Jayson Tatum and others, the vote will almost certainly come down to Ben Simmons vs. Donovan Mitchell.

Mitchell, the 13th overall pick in the 2017 draft, has done his part to help Jazz fans forget about Gordon Hayward‘s departure, averaging a team-high 20.5 PPG to go along with 3.7 APG, 3.7 RPG, and 1.5 SPG. After coming off the bench for several games near the start of the season, Mitchell has been a mainstay in Utah’s starting lineup since November, and had been a huge reason why the Jazz hold the No. 4 seed in the West — the team is 42-27 in games Mitchell starts.

While Mitchell’s rookie year has been outstanding, don’t count Simmons among those who will admit to being impressed by the Jazz guard. Asked by ESPN’s Chris Haynes which rookies around the NBA have caught his attention this season, Simmons promptly replied, “None.” The Sixers‘ point guard also didn’t mince words when asked about his own pick for Rookie of the Year.

“Who would I pick? Me, 100 percent,” Simmons told Haynes. “I think I have been playing solid all year. If you look at the numbers, you will see. People who know the game know.”

Simmons’ numbers are certainly worth mentioning. While he hasn’t scored at the same rate as Mitchell, posting 16.0 PPG for the year, 2016’s first overall pick has filled up the stat sheet with 8.2 APG, 8.1 RPG, and 1.7 SPG after missing the entire 2016/17 season. He has also made 54.7% of his shots from the field, though the fact that he has attempted just 11 three-pointers all season helps buoy that mark.

Like Mitchell’s Jazz, Simmons’ Sixers are in position to host a first-round playoff series, potentially as the No. 3 seed. And as good as the two rookies have been, they also both play alongside star centers – Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid – who have arguably been the 2017/18 MVPs for Utah and Philadelphia, respectively. In other words, Mitchell and Simmons have very similar – and virtually equally compelling – cases for being named the 2017/18 Rookie of the Year.

What do you think? Would you pick Mitchell or Simmons as the 2017/18 Rookie of the Year? Is there another candidate that you think has a case to be at the forefront of the discussion? Does the fact that Simmons had an extra year of NBA seasoning affect your pick at all, even though he’s technically eligible for the award?

Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!

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Jazz Sign David Stockton For Rest Of Season

April 6th, 2018 at 3:51pm CST by Luke Adams

3:51pm: The Jazz have officially signed Stockton, per the NBA’s transactions log.

8:09am: David Stockton‘s second 10-day contract with the Jazz expired overnight, but he won’t be going anywhere, according to Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). League sources tell Charania that Utah intends to sign Stockton to a new contract that covers the rest of the season.

Stockton, the son of former Jazz star John Stockton, has played sparingly for his father’s old team during his 20 days in Utah, averaging 3.3 PPG in 3.0 MPG over the course of three games.

The Jazz are currently looking to secure a top-four seed in the West and then will head into the playoffs next week, so Stockton is unlikely to see his minutes increase in the near future. However, the 26-year-old point guard will be postseason-eligible on his new deal and will serve as an insurance policy in Utah’s backcourt.

Once Stockton officially inks his new deal with the Jazz, the team will have a full NBA roster, with 15 guaranteed contracts.

Raul Neto Has Made Significant Progress From Wrist Fracture

April 3rd, 2018 at 9:55pm CST by marksuleymanov

Former Jazz player Trey Lyles, now with the Nuggets, did not have many kind words about his former team. Jody Genessy of The Deseret News passes along some of Lyles’ comments, made during an appearance on teammate Richard Jefferson‘s Road Trippin’ Podcast. Lyles was critical of head coach Quin Snyder and expressed a general distaste for his tenure in Utah.
Jazz point guard Raul Neto has made significant progress on his fractured wrist, tweets Tony Jones of the Salt Lake City Tribune. No firm decision has been made, but it’s possible that Neto plays in tomorrow’s game against the Lakers, Jones adds.

Nurse, Vanterpool Top List Of Rising Head Coach Candidates

April 3rd, 2018 at 3:16pm CST by Luke Adams

No NBA head coaches were replaced during the 2017 offseason, but that’s very unlikely to be the case for 2018. Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post and Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports suggest that as many as 10 or 11 teams could be on the lookout for a new head coach this offseason.

That list of teams includes three teams with interim head coaches – the Suns, Grizzlies, and Bucks – as well as lottery teams like the Knicks, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Hawks. Playoff contenders like the Nuggets and Clippers could also consider a change, particularly if they miss out on the postseason.

Not all of those teams will replace their current head coaches, but there should be a good deal of turnover in the NBA’s coaching ranks this spring. That could open up the door for assistant coaches or G League head coaches who haven’t yet had the opportunity to run their own NBA squads to interview for those jobs in the coming weeks.

With that in mind, Mannix spoke to over three dozen “high-ranking team executives,” getting each of those execs to name two assistants they view as viable head coaching candidates. Mannix’s only criteria? The executives polled couldn’t name assistants from their own staffs, and the assistants named couldn’t have any NBA or major-college head coaching experience already.

Here are the top vote-getters in Mannix’s poll, all of whom were mentioned by at least three different executives:

Nick Nurse (Raptors assistant)
David Vanterpool (Trail Blazers assistant)
Igor Kokoskov (Jazz assistant)
Stephen Silas (Hornets associate head coach)
Adrian Griffin (Thunder assistant)
Nate Tibbetts (Trail Blazers assistant)
Chris Finch (Pelicans assistant)
Jerry Stackhouse (Raptors 905 head coach)
Ryan Saunders (Timberwolves assistant)
Jay Larranaga (Celtics assistant)

Of course, not every team seeking a new head coach in the offseason will be eyeing candidates in this pool. Some clubs will want a candidate with previous head coaching experience, and there should be no shortage of those — Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, David Blatt, David Fizdale, and Monty Williams are among the veteran coaches who have been linked to various teams already. Other clubs may target a coach from the NCAA pool, such as Villanova’s Jay Wright.

Still, the NBA assistants listed above are viewed around the league as future head coaching candidates, and are the names to keep an eye on if your favorite team is considering a change on its bench.

Nerlens Noel, Thabo Sefolosha Receive Five-Game Suspensions

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:41am CST by Luke Adams

Mavericks center Nerlens Noel and Jazz forward Thabo Sefolosha have each received five-game suspensions for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program, the league announced today. The bans are for marijuana violations, tweets Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post.

The lottery-bound Mavericks only have five games left in the regular season, so Noel will start serving his suspension immediately and avoid having it carry over to 2018/19. With unrestricted free agency looming for the former lottery pick, it’s possible that Noel has played his last game in Dallas. The suspension will cost him approximately $145K of this season’s salary.

As for Sefolosha, his situation is a little more complicated since he’s expected to miss the rest of this season with a knee injury. The veteran must receive medical clearance before he can begin serving his suspension, so the five-game ban figures to impact his availability at the start of next season.

Sefolosha is under contract for 2018/19, but his $5.25MM salary is non-guaranteed. The Jazz could release him by July 1 and avoid being on the hook for that salary — if they keep him on their roster, they’ll be without him for their first five games in the fall.

Poll: Which Western Contenders Will Miss Playoffs?

April 3rd, 2018 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Three teams in the Western Conference have clinched playoff berths, with the Rockets, Warriors, and Trail Blazers likely locked into the top three seeds, in that order. However, after those top teams, the race for the conference’s final five postseason spots remains hotly contested.

The Spurs (45-32) are ostensibly in the driver’s seat for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, but a late-season slide could still put their playoff spot in jeopardy. San Antonio has back-to-back road games against the Clippers and Lakers on tap this week, followed by home games against Portland and Sacramento, and a regular season finale in New Orleans. While it’s still possible that Kawhi Leonard could return for one or more of those games, the club isn’t counting on that.

While the Thunder (45-33) remain in contention for the No. 4 spot too, they’re also one bad week away from slipping out of the playoff picture, particularly since they hold virtually no tiebreakers against their Western competitors. You can probably pencil OKC in for a win at home vs. Memphis next Wednesday, but before that game, the Thunder will have to deal with the Warriors at home, and the Rockets and Heat on the road.

The Jazz (44-33) have won 27 of their last 34 games, but that hasn’t been enough to pull away from the pack in the West. A home-and-away set against the Lakers this week bodes well, but Utah will also have to host the Clippers and Warriors before finishing the season in Portland. Holding tiebreakers over the Spurs, Pelicans, and Clips could come in handy.

The Timberwolves (44-34) could badly use Jimmy Butler in their lineup down the stretch, and he’s still expected to be back before the end of the season, but his exact return date remains up in the air. Home-and-away games against Denver may ultimately decide Minnesota’s playoff fate, though the Wolves will also face a pair of lottery teams in the Lakers (road) and Grizzlies (home). Minnesota’s tiebreakers over the Thunder, Jazz, Pelicans, and Clippers look big now.

The Pelicans (43-34) have lost four straight games, putting their playoff spot at risk, but those losses came against four very good teams. They’ll have a chance to turn things around this week when they host the Grizzlies and visit the Suns. After that, the schedule gets tough again — the Pelicans close out by visiting the Warriors and Clippers before hosting the Spurs.

If any of those five teams falter, the Nuggets (42-35) and Clippers (41-36) will be ready to take advantage, though neither team has it easy down the stretch. In addition to facing Minnesota twice, the Nuggets also host the Pacers and Trail Blazers. The Clippers have one road game left in Utah, and will host the Spurs, Pelicans, and Lakers. The Nuggets and Clippers will also face one another in L.A. on Saturday.

Got all that? Great. Now, we want to know what you think. How will the season’s final nine days play out? Which two of the top 10 teams in the West will end up missing the playoffs? Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

RFA Rumors: Parker, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle

March 30th, 2018 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.

Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…

Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.

Northwest Notes: Exum, Nuggets, Wolves, Turner

March 28th, 2018 at 3:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Point guard Dante Exum has played in just 72 games since his rookie year, having had to deal with injuries in each of the last three seasons. He’s healthy now, and playing regular backup minutes for the Jazz, but he’s on track for restricted free agency this summer, and one general manager tells Sean Deveney of The Sporting News that it may be worth rolling the dice on Exum despite his injury history.

“I think you have to look at him as a physically gifted guy who is only 22 (he turns 23 in July) and has already gone through the huge NBA learning curve,” the GM said. “There are guys in this year’s draft who will be 22 but aren’t going to have the kind of knowledge of the league he has, and don’t have the physical gifts.”

According to Deveney, one front office executive estimated that a two-year deal in the $18-20MM range might be enough to pry Exum away from the Jazz. That would be a steep price for a fourth-year player who has yet to deliver on the promise he showed heading into the 2014 draft, but overpaying a restricted free agent is often necessary to avoid having his old team match.

“He’s a gamble,” that same executive told Deveney. “But $10MM a year is not as big a gamble as it once was. He could show something here.”

Here’s more from around the Northwest division:

With the G League’s regular season over, players on two-way contracts are no longer limited to 45 days of NBA service time. That’s good news for Nuggets two-way player Torrey Craig, who is free to travel with and play for the NBA squad, and hopes to make a strong impression down the stretch, per Gina Mizell of The Denver Post. “Just show them that I can be a consistent, impactful player on both ends of the court and just try to fit in wherever I can and play a role,” Craig said of his goals for the rest of the season.
The Nuggets had been hoping to get injured guard Gary Harris back on Friday, but he’s now doubtful for that game, and is aiming for a Sunday return, per head coach Mike Malone (Twitter link via Harrison Wind of BSNDenver.com).
In a mailbag for The Athletic, Jon Krawczynski examines Karl-Anthony Towns‘ future extension, Nemanja Bjelica‘s upcoming free agency, and more Timberwolves-related topics.
Trail Blazers swingman Evan Turner was fined $10K for making an “inappropriate gesture” during Sunday’s game against Oklahoma City, the NBA announced in a press release.

Injury Notes: Smart, Love, Ingram, Wall

March 28th, 2018 at 1:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

Celtics guard Marcus Smart is making progress in rehabbing a torn ligament in his right thumb and hopes to be available for the second round of the playoffs, writes Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe.

A cast on his hand was recently replaced by a splint with an opening at the top that allows him to move his thumb, and he has been able to do some light exercises with the injured digit. Smart tore the ligament earlier this month and underwent surgery March 16. His original prognosis had him out six to eight weeks, which sets a potential return about the time of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

“Definitely right now, that’s what we’re shooting for,” he said. “The way it’s going now, we’re on the right path. Hopefully nothing happens where it gets delayed.”

There are more injury updates from around the NBA:

Kevin Love has been placed in concussion protocol and will miss tonight’s game, the Cavaliers announced on their website. He suffered a front tooth sublexation last night and experienced concussion-like symptoms at halftime.
After missing nearly four weeks with a strained groin, Lakers forward Brandon Ingram expects to return tonight, tweets Mike Bresnahan of Spectrum Sports Net.
Coach Luke Walton says Lakers rookie Josh Hart has looked good in three-on-three games and may be cleared to play Friday, according to Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN (Twitter link).
John Wall, who has been sidelined since having arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in late January, may be able to return tomorrow, according to a tweet from the Wizards. Coach Scott Brooks said Wall will participate in the team’s shootaround and a decision will be based on how the knee responds. He is officially listed as questionable.
Clippers forward Danilo Gallinari is targeting Friday to return from a fractured right hand, relays Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. “I hope to play a few minutes against Portland [Friday],” Gallinari said in an interview with Italian outlet Sky Sport. “The hand is not completely healed, but we’ll see how I can help the team in the games left in the regular season. I will try to bite the bullet for the playoff race. The franchise asked me to grit my teeth and play. I will try to do that.”
After re-injuring his right ankle Monday, Celtics forward Marcus Morris will sit out tonight’s game, according to a tweet from the team. He will probably return Saturday, according to Himmelsbach (Twitter link).
Celtics coach Brad Stevens provided an another update on Gordon Hayward, saying he’s still limited to the Alter-G treadmill and hasn’t been cleared to run on the court (Twitter link). “There will be nothing more exciting for him than being able to get back out on the basketball court,” Stevens said (Twitter link).
Cavaliers forward Cedi Osman may be cleared to return to action after a hip flexor injury. He tweeted an image of himself accompanied by the word, “finally.”
Jazz center Tony Bradley has cleared concussion protocol, tweets Eric Woodyard of The Deseret News.