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Where Traded Draft Picks Would Land If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 9:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.

Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.

With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.

First round:

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
  2. Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
    • Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
  4. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
    • Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
  5. Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
    • Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
  6. Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
    • Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
  8. New York Knicks (from Clippers)
  9. Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

  • Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
  • Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)

Notes:

  • The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.

Second round:

  1. Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
  2. Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
  4. Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
  5. Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
  6. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
  7. New York Knicks (from Hornets)
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
  9. Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
  10. Boston Celtics (from Nets)
  11. Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
  12. Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
  13. Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
    • Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
  14. Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
  15. Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
  16. Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
  17. Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
  18. Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
  19. New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

  • Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)

Notes:

  • The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
  • The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.
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What 2020 Lottery Odds Would Look Like If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.

It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.

Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.

With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.

For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
WSH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
PHX 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
SAS 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
SAC* 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 – – – – – – – 86.1 7.6 0.1
NOP* 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 – – – – – – – – 92.0 2.3
POR 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.

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Examining What Wizards Players Are Doing During Hiatus

March 15th, 2020 at 5:41pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Chris Miller of NBC Sports Washington takes a look at what different Wizards players are doing during the NBA’s hiatus. As Miller notes, many players are enjoying personal activities such as playing video games, watching movies, or watching TV shows.
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Antetokounmpo, Griffin, Williamson To Help Arena Workers

March 13th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bucks forward and reigning Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and his family are donating $100K to Fiserv Forum staff members to help them weather the financial storm during the league’s suspension of play, according to his Twitter account.

Antetokounmpo is following the lead of the Cavaliers’ Kevin Love, who pledged a similar amount to arena employees in Cleveland. The Pistons’ Blake Griffin is making the same donation to workers at Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena, according to the Detroit News’ Rod Beard.

Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson is pledging to cover the salaries for all of their arena staff workers for the next 30 days, Shams Charania of The Athletic tweets.

Numerous teams have come forward to say that they’ll keep their employees on the payroll during the stoppage as well as compensate full-time and part-time staff who work their games. However, many other workers in these arenas, such as security guards and concession workers, are often employed by other companies. The players donations would presumably provide assistance to those workers.

The Pistons added their name to the list of teams that will compensate workers on Thursday, according to the Detroit Free Press. The Wizards did the same, Candace Bucker of the Washington Post tweets. The Kings have also stepped forward, according to James Ham of NBC Sports, The Trail Blazers are formulating a plan to pay their part-time arena employees for the team’s nine remaining home games and will reassess the program in 30 days, Jason Quick of The Athletic tweets.

Rockets CEO Tad Brown vowed to make sure their employees would “take care of our part-time employees as well as all of our employees,” Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle relays.

The Mavericks, Hawks, Cavaliers, and Nets have already stated their intentions to provide financial support to employees and arena workers.

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Donovan Mitchell Tests Positive For Coronavirus

March 12th, 2020 at 9:52am CST by Luke Adams

A second Jazz All-Star has been diagnosed with COVID-19, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, who reports (via Twitter) that guard Donovan Mitchell tested positive for the coronavirus.

Jazz players and team personnel were quarantined in their locker room on Wednesday night following Rudy Gobert‘s positive coronavirus test and the postponement of their game with the Thunder. Coronavirus tests were conducted on the club’s staff and players, including Mitchell, at that time before they were permitted to leave the Chesapeake Energy Arena.

According to Wojnarowski, Jazz players have privately said that Gobert had been “careless in the locker room” this week, “touching other players and their belongings.” We don’t know that Gobert contracted the virus before Mitchell, but it’s still not a good look for the Jazz center, who also made light of the coronavirus crisis on Monday by going out of his way to touch every microphone and recorder in front of home following a session with the media.

Fortunately though, the coronavirus wasn’t spread widely across the Jazz locker room. Mitchell was the only one of 58 Jazz players and personnel who were tested on Wednesday night to be diagnosed with the virus, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (via Twitter). The remaining tests came back negative. The Jazz confirmed as much this morning in a press release.

While the Jazz are the first team known to have affected players, they may not be the only club impacted by the outbreak, since they’ve played several other clubs within the last two weeks. Reports on Wednesday night indicated that players from teams that have played the Jazz in the last 10 days were advised to self-quarantine. That list of clubs includes the Cavaliers, Knicks, Celtics, Pistons, and Raptors.

The Raptors, who played the Jazz most recently (Monday), had members of their traveling party, including players, tested for COVID-19 on Wednesday night and announced today that they’re awaiting results. All of Toronto’s players, coaches, and traveling staff have been instructed to go into self-isolation for 14 days, according to the team.

The Wizards, who faced Utah on February 29 and the Knicks on March 10, have advised players and staff members to self-quarantine for the next three or four days out of “an abundance of caution,” the team announced today.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Latest On The NBA’s Coronavirus Precautions

March 11th, 2020 at 6:17pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA’s Board of Governors had a call with the league office earlier today and discussed plans going forward with regard to taking precautions amid the coronavirus outbreak. Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe of ESPN.com report (Twitter links) that the stakeholders have narrowed it down to two main options: play without fans in the arena or have the league take a hiatus for a period of time.

The greater consensus is to have the games go on without fans, Woj notes. The decision is expected to come as soon as Thursday on what the next steps will be.

The Warriors will play without fans in the arena on Thursday. It was reported that playing behind closed doors is expected to result in a “multi-million dollar loss”

The Sixers are among the teams that will continue to host fans, including tonight’s content against the Pistons. However, Philadelphia and other clubs have sent out memos with preventive and restrictive measures fans can and should take.

The Wizards have opted to remain open for business, for now, despite the D.C. Department of Health advising against holding non-essential gatherings of over 1,000 people. However, Washington doesn’t have a home game again until Sunday, so the decision to play without fans isn’t as urgent for the district as it is for other teams.

The NCAA announced that fans will not be allowed to attend games for the men’s and women’s tournaments this year.

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NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 3/11/20

March 11th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Here are today’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:

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Coronavirus Updates: Warriors, Cavs, Wizards, Next Steps

March 11th, 2020 at 4:07pm CST by Luke Adams

As we relayed earlier today, the Warriors‘ Thursday contest vs. Brooklyn is on track to become the first NBA game played without fans in attendance as a result of the coronavirus epidemic.

Discussing the situation today with reporters, Warriors president and COO Rick Welts acknowledged that it will be a costly adjustment for the franchise. As Nick Friedell of ESPN tweets, Welts said not playing Thursday’s game will result in a “multi-million dollar loss” for the Warriors, adding that the number would increase to the “tens of millions” if the team continues to play behind closed doors following its road trip.

Although the lost revenue for one Warriors game won’t have a massive impact on the basketball related income (BRI) for the NBA as a whole, it will become a more significant issue if more teams are forced to play games without fans, which seems likely.

Welts and GM Bob Myers confirmed today that the league’s BRI will be affected and that it could have an impact on the salary cap going forward, though it remains to be seen to what degree that impact will be felt (video link via Anthony Slater of The Athletic). Between this situation and the NBA’s controversy with China, the cap may not increase next season by nearly as much as initially expected.

Here are more news items and notes related to the coronavirus outbreak:

  • The NBA has considered the possibility of pushing back its calendar in response to the coronavirus crisis, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic. Sources tell Amick that the NBA has been asking teams to provide its arena schedule through July. Currently, the season is expected to end no later than June 21 (if the Finals go seven games).
  • The NBA and its players’ union spoke on Wednesday to discuss ways to continue the season without cancelling games, per ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski. It appears increasingly likely that teams around the league will be required to play in empty arenas, with the NBA bracing for losses “in the hundreds of millions of dollars,” sources tell ESPN.
  • After initially recommending against mass gatherings, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said today that the state intends to issue an order saying that no spectators will be allowed at major sporting events, tweets Aaron Portzline of The Athletic. That will affect the Cavaliers, though they’re not scheduled to return home until March 24.
  • After the D.C. Department of Health advised against holding non-essential gatherings of 1,000+ people, the Wizards‘ ownership group issued a statement saying that they plan to move forward with allowing fans to attend home games for now. So far, teams have been reluctant to do anything drastic unless they’re faced with a full-fledged ban from local government or an edict from the league.
  • Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) hears that at least half of the NBA’s teams have pulled their advance scouts off the road due to coronavirus concerns.
  • In case you missed it, the NCAA announced this afternoon that this year’s men’s and women’s tournaments will be closed to fans.
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NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 3/10/20

March 10th, 2020 at 8:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Here are Tuesday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:

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Jordan Bell Joins Wizards’ G League Affiliate

March 10th, 2020 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Having being waived by the Grizzlies last week, big man Jordan Bell has signed a G League contract, per the NBAGL’s official transactions log. And according to Fred Katz of The Athletic (via Twitter), the Wizards‘ G League affiliate – the Capital City Go-Go – has claimed Bell off waivers.

After starting his NBA career by spending two seasons with the Warriors, Bell has had a tumultuous 2019/20 season. He signed a one-year, minimum-salary contract with the Timberwolves during the summer, but didn’t establish himself as a reliable rotation player in Minnesota, averaging 3.1 PPG and 2.9 RPG in 27 games (8.7 MPG).

Prior to the trade deadline, Bell was sent to Houston in the four-team Clint Capela trade, then was flipped to Memphis in exchange for Bruno Caboclo. Despite the Grizzlies enduring some frontcourt injuries, potentially clearing a path for Bell to earn regular minutes, the team opted to release him, bringing in Anthony Tolliver on a 10-day contract to fill his roster spot. Now, Bell will look to rebuild his value in the G League for the Go-Go.

Although they’ll get a closer look at the 25-year-old by virtue of having him on their NBAGL affiliate, the Wizards won’t have any control over Bell’s NBA rights — he’s free to sign with any NBA team if he gets an offer between now and the end of the regular season.

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