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Potential 2019 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 12th, 2019 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Two years ago, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,485,665.

Kristaps Porzingis (Mavericks)
Stanley Johnson (Pelicans)
Frank Kaminsky (Hornets)
Trey Lyles (Nuggets)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Porzingis, who had no chance at meeting the playing-time requirements due to his torn ACL. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 4 overall pick would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth just over $7.5MM. Of course, it may not matter much, since Porzingis is expected to sign a long-term deal with the Mavericks anyway.

For Johnson, Kaminsky, and Lyles, falling short of the starter criteria was more about their roles than health issues.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this season.

Kelly Oubre (Suns)

Because Oubre was selected between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2015 draft and met the starter criteria, he’s eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,915,726 instead of $4,485,665. No other players fit the bill this year, as many of the players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 in 2015 have either already been extended or are no longer on their rookie contracts.

Nets forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the 23rd overall pick in 2015, was the strongest candidate to join Oubre in this group, but fell just short of meeting the criteria, having started 80 games over the last two seasons — he needed to get to 82. Wizards forward Bobby Portis, the 22nd overall pick, also would have had a shot if he stayed healthy, but injuries limited his minutes over the last two seasons.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $3,021,354.

Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks)
Thomas Bryant (Wizards)
Rodney McGruder (Clippers)

Tomas Satoransky (Wizards) was another player who qualified for this group, but because his initial NBA contract was more lucrative than most, his qualifying offer will already be worth $3,911,484 based on other criteria.

There were a few second-round picks and UDFAs who just missed out on meeting the starter criteria, including Dorian Finney-Smith of the Mavericks (1,985 minutes played), Bulls guard Ryan Arcidiacono (1,961 minutes), and Clippers center Ivica Zubac (37 starts).

Those players, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Wizards Notes: Brooks, Wall, Draft

April 10th, 2019 at 8:55pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Scott Brooks still has two years and $14MM left on his contract and while he hasn’t heard a definite answer on his future, he expects to be on the Wizards‘ bench next season.

“I haven’t been told anything different,” Brooks said (via Candace Buckner of The Washington Post). “I’m not saying this in an arrogant way, but I worry about my job day-to-day. I don’t worry about my job long-term. I worry about doing my job today. If that’s good, I can do it again tomorrow.”

The Wizards were plagued with injuries this season, but Brooks has done well with the hand he was dealt. Bradley Beal evolved into a premier player under his leadership and Brooks made several prudent rotation decisions, such as inserting Thomas Bryant into the starting lineup instead of Ian Mahinmi when Dwight Howard was forced out of action. Mahinmi was the team’s fourth-highest paid player at the time so the decision wasn’t an easy one to make.

Here’s more from Washington:

Brooks acknowledges that he has to continue to improve as a coach, as Buckner relays in the same piece. His defensive scheme could be an area where change occurs.“We have to, myself and my staff and I have to be — I have to evaluate just like Ted and our new person will evaluate, as well,” Brooks said. “But it’s a lot of things we have to look at, and everything is on the table.”
According to some within the Wizards‘ organization, John Wall lost his edge once he signed his mammoth deal and some questioned his level of commitment to the game, The Athletic’s Michael Lee writes. Wall has gained a greater appreciation for the game being away from basketball and he’s anxious to prove all of his doubters wrong. “Just hearing what people say, that just keeps my fuel going,” Wall said. “I read all the articles. It’s over. His career is over. All that type of stuff. So, it’s fun for me.”
The Wizards can’t let Wall deter them from drafting a top point guard prospect during the upcoming draft, Lee argues in the same piece. The scribe believes Washington should take Ja Morant if available but ultimately the team needs to take the best player available regardless of position.

John Wall Unsure If He’ll Play Next Season

April 10th, 2019 at 10:14am CST by Luke Adams

A torn Achilles tendon will sideline John Wall for at least the start of the 2019/20 season, and the Wizards point guard isn’t entirely sure that he’ll be able to return at all next season. After undergoing surgery on his Achilles in February, Wall told reporters on Tuesday that his return timeline remains very much up in the air, as Howard Fendrich of The Associated Press relays.

“I have no idea just yet,” Wall said when asked about playing next season. “That’s my goal. … That’s my mindset, where I’m pushing toward. But whenever the doctors clear me and get to that point, then I will know.”

According to Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington, Wall plans to rehab the injury in Miami during the summer. However, he’ll remain in town for a few weeks and will be keeping an eye on which direction owner Ted Leonsis goes with the club’s general manager hire after dismissing Ernie Grunfeld. The veteran point guard expressed confidence in Leonsis’ ability to make a strong hire.

“Whoever we have or hire is going to be somebody that has watched us from the outside, not the inside, and understands what this team needs and what type of culture we need around here, what type of veterans we need and what type of leaders we need to make this team the right team,” Wall said, per Hughes.

While the Wizards don’t have that new GM in place yet, Wall did offer one piece of roster construction advice for Grunfeld’s eventual replacement, as Hughes notes.

“I think most of the years I’ve been here we’ve always had five or six guys on one-year contracts,” Wall said. “That’s always tough to deal with because those guys are fighting for their lives and fighting to make sure they keep their jobs in this league. I think you kind of want to get and sustain a core group that you know is going to be here for a while.”

The Wizards are also in position to claim a high pick in the 2019 draft, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a prospect like Murray State point guard Ja Morant could be the best player available when Washington is on the clock this June. If the club does decide to select a point guard with its top pick, Wall is fine with that outcome, he told reporters on Tuesday.

“I would have no problem with that because it is what it is,” Wall said. “You have to do what is best for the team. You have to make sure that we have pieces. And when I come back, he can be a great back-up to me.”

Wizards Sign Tarik Phillip, Jordan McRae

April 9th, 2019 at 2:32pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Wizards have signed Tarik Phillip, according to The Athletic’s Fred Katz (Twitter link). Hoops Rumors’ own JD Shaw (Twitter link) has confirmed the report.

The team also promoted and extended two-way player Jordan McRae, as Candace Buckner of The Washington Post tweets. His new standard NBA contract is non-guaranteed for next season.

McRae excelled in the G League this season, splitting time between the Capital City Go-Go and the Wizards and earning first-team All-NBAGL honors. Phillip also shined in the G League this season, playing for the Memphis Hustle, the Grizzlies’ G League affiliate.

Washington’s final game is tonight against the Celtics, meaning today is the last day the team can sign a player. The franchise entered the day with 13 traditional players under contract in addition to its pair of two-way deals. Those figures are now 15 and one, respectively.

Eastern Notes: Ellington, Wizards, Cavs

April 9th, 2019 at 12:24pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Detroit remains in the playoff race in large part due to the addition of Wayne Ellington. The shooting guard has made 38.1% of his looks from behind the arc on 7.8 attempts per game since coming to the franchise. Coach Dwane Casey sees Ellington’s use of his speed as a major reason why he’s able to succeed from 3-point land.

“If he was slow coming off, teams would chase him over and get there. He really comes off with speed and he knows how to change speeds to get open. [Luke Kennard] could really learn from him as far as watching him work out. It’s not just for games. He does it every day in practice,” Casey said (via Keith Langlois of NBA.com).

The Pistons were in need of outside shooting after shipping Reggie Bullock to the Lakers at the trade deadline and the team is glad it was able to nab Ellington after the veteran agreed to a buyout with the Suns. The sharpshooter will again be a free agent at the end of the season.

Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:

The Wizards are working with prominent sports executive Mike Forde as the team looks to reset its front office, a source tells Candace Buckner of The Washington Post. Forde is the CEO of Sportsology and was previously the director of football operations for Chelsea in the Premier League.
Bradley Beal has been a mentor to Troy Brown Jr. and the All-NBA candidate sees a bright future for the Wizards‘ rookie, as Zach Rosen of NBA.com relays. “I told him in the beginning of the year, you are going to see a lot of stuff throughout this year, and one thing I always tell him is, it is easy to just get caught up in the negativity but the more positive you stay and the more ready you stay, your name will eventually be called and sure enough, it was called and he performed,” Beal said. “He did excellent. He has been constantly growing. It is just a matter of him just getting more minutes.”
The Cavaliers‘ home arena will see a name change from Quicken Loans Arena to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, according to Tom Withers of The Associated Press. The venue is also undergoing “major” renovations.

Beal: I’m Focused On Wizards’ Direction, Not Money

April 8th, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

If he earns a spot on one of the All-NBA teams this spring, Bradley Beal will become eligible for a four-year, super-max contract extension that would start in 2021. However, as Fred Katz of The Athletic relays, Beal says he’s focused more on the direction of the Wizards’ franchise than on a potentially massive payday.

“My biggest concern, just like I tell everybody else, is just making sure that we’re going in the right direction. It’s easy to secure money. Money is not the problem,” Beal said. “I already have one max contract, and I can live off that and be cool. So, money is not the problem.”

Despite still being two years away from free agency, Beal will be eligible to sign a new deal in the offseason regardless of whether he makes an All-NBA team this year. However, a non-super-max extension would be far more limiting in terms of years and dollars. A super-max deal would start at 35% of the cap for 2021/22, and, based on cap projections, could be worth upwards of $190MM over four years.

Still, it’s not clear whether the Wizards would put such an offer on the table, in part because we don’t yet know who will be running the team’s front office this summer. The club dismissed longtime president of basketball operations Ernie Grunfeld last week and is in the market for a new head of basketball operations. Beal is among those who is curious to see which way the Wizards go on that decision, as that’ll represent the first step in assessing his future with the franchise.

“It’s, what are we gonna do here moving forward?” Beal said, per Katz. “It starts with getting a new GM and building up our team this summer. I’ll definitely give it a lot of thought. It’s not an easy decision. It’s not a simple one, either. So, (it’s a) game of chess this summer.”

Beal said last month that he has “no idea” if he’d sign a super-max extension with the Wizards if he qualifies and the team puts the offer on the table.

Notable Draft Lottery Races To Watch This Week

April 8th, 2019 at 12:43pm CST by Luke Adams

The 16-64 Knicks have clinched the NBA’s worst record for the 2018/19 season, but a number of other spots behind them in the draft lottery remain very much up for grabs, as our reverse standings show. Now that every NBA team only has one or two games left on its schedule, here are the key races and games to keep an eye on this week:

The battle for No. 2:

A nine-game losing streak for the Cavaliers has pulled them even with the Suns for the No. 2 spot in the lottery standings, as both teams head into their final game of the season at 19-62. Each club plays its last game on Tuesday, with the Cavs hosting Charlotte while the Suns play in Dallas.

The Hornets are still fighting for their playoff lives and the Suns have a 7-33 road record this season, so it wouldn’t be surprise if both Cleveland and Phoenix lose and finish at 19-63. In that scenario, a coin flip would decide which team gets the second spot in the lottery standings and which team finishes third. Their odds at a top pick would be the same either way, but the third-place team could fall to as far as No. 7 in the draft, as opposed to No. 6.

Four teams separated by one game between Nos. 6-9:

The Wizards (32-49) currently sit at No. 6 in the lottery standings, but the Grizzlies (32-48), Mavericks (32-48), and Pelicans (33-48) are right there with them. Adding intrigue to this logjam is the fact that the Grizzlies would like to see their top-eight protected first-round pick convey to Boston this season, while the Mavs probably wouldn’t mind keeping their top-five protected first-rounder.

Memphis, with the most incentive to win out, has perhaps the toughest schedule of this group, with games on tap in Detroit on Tuesday and vs. Golden State on Wednesday. The Pistons are still fighting to make the postseason, and the Warriors reportedly intend to play at least half of their regulars in the 82nd game. Wins won’t come easy for the Grizzlies.

The Pelicans’ final game comes on Tuesday vs. Golden State, in a contest which will likely feature the other half of the Warriors’ regulars.

The Wizards finish at home vs. the Celtics, who might be resting some top players now that they’ve sewn up the No. 4 seed in the East.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, have a winnable game at home vs. Phoenix on tap for Tuesday before finishing their season in San Antonio on Wednesday. The Spurs may still be battling for playoff seeding at that point.

The difference between finishing sixth and ninth in the lottery standings is significant. The No. 6 team has a 9% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. For the No. 9 team, those odds dip to 4.5% and 20.2%, respectively.

Minor back-of-the-lottery intrigue:

The Heat and Hornets are both 38-42 and remain in the hunt for the postseason. They’re currently just ahead of the 39-42 Kings in the lottery standings.

If Miami (vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn) and Charlotte (at Cleveland, vs. Orlando) both win out and the Kings lose in Portland on Wednesday, Sacramento would move up from No. 14 to No. 12 in the lottery standings. That’s not really a huge deal, since the No. 12 team is still a real long shot to move up.

Still, Sixers and Celtics fans will certainly take note of the difference between No. 14 (0.5% chance at the No. 1 pick; 2.4% chance at a top-four pick) and No. 12 (1.5% and 7.2%, respectively). If the Kings’ pick jumps to No. 1, Philadelphia would get it. If it lands anywhere else – including Nos. 2, 3, or 4 – it’ll go to Boston.

Southeast Notes: Connelly, Walker, Lamb, Briscoe

April 7th, 2019 at 12:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

Asked about the possibility that he might leave to run the Wizards‘ front office, Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly passed on the chance to issue a denial, relays Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post. Washington has reportedly targeted Connelly as its top candidate after firing Ernie Grunfeld this week.

“To be honest with you, I was hoping not to have to answer that question on a night when we win the Northwest Division,” Connelly responded Friday as the team celebrated its title.

Connelly grew up in Baltimore and had his first NBA job as an intern with the Wizards. He signed an extension with the Nuggets in February, but Kiszla notes that the organization doesn’t have a history of paying executives especially well, which led to the departure of Masai Ujiri in 2013. Kiszla suggests that Josh Kroenke, vice chairman of Kroenke Sports and Entertainment, should refuse any request from the Wizards to interview Connelly.

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

With the Hornets as a long shot to reach the playoffs, Shane Rhodes of Basketball Insiders examines some situations that might be better for free agent guard Kemba Walker. Rhodes states that the Suns are intriguing with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton already in place and a high lottery pick about to join them. Rhodes names the Bulls, Knicks, Lakers and Mavericks as other possibilities.
Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer examines whether the Hornets can afford to bring back Jeremy Lamb if they re-sign Walker. Lamb has established himself as a legitimate scorer and another crunch-time option, but the team would be well into luxury tax territory if it brings back both free agents. Bonnell speculates that it will probably take a max offer to keep Walker ($190MM over five seasons or up to $221MM if he makes an All-NBA team and qualifies for a super-max contract), plus something in the range of $10-$13MM annually for Lamb.
The Magic are interested in working out a new deal with Isaiah Briscoe this summer, tweets Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports. Briscoe, who is sidelined by a torn meniscus, was waived this week to open a roster spot for Michael Carter-Williams. He cleared waivers yesterday and is an unrestricted free agent.

Jeff Green Wants To Return

April 5th, 2019 at 9:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jeff Green has played for six teams since the 2014/15 season and he’d like to stay put for a change. The veteran forward said he “would love to come back” to the Wizards, Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington tweets. Green is averaging 12.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 1.8 APG for Washington. Green, 32, signed a one-year, minimum-salary contract with the Wizards last summer and will be an unrestricted free agent once again.

Wizards Waive Wesley Johnson

April 5th, 2019 at 9:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Wizards are waiving forward Wesley Johnson, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN tweets. The team has issued a press release confirming the move is official.

Washington acquired him at the trade deadline from the Pelicans for Markieff Morris. Johnson was acquired by New Orleans in October from the Clippers.

Washington beat the Sunday deadline to waive a player with an expiring contract, Bobby Marks of ESPN notes (Twitter link). Johnson’s cap hold for this offseason would have been $9.2MM.

Johnson, 31, appeared in just 12 games with the Wizards, averaging 2.8 PPG and 1.5 RPG in 13.1 MPG. He made 13 starts with the Pelicans.