- It’s healthy for John Wall and Bradley Beal to be open about their disagreements, contends Ric Bucher of Bleacher Report. He believes the Wizards‘ backcourt tandem will improve their communication because they’re willing to speak publicly about the problem, which Bucher describes as both wanting to be the dominant personality on the team. Bucher doesn’t think there’s a need to trade either one because their skills are complementary.
During the first few years of the NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, many teams had virtually no chance to open up cap room. The salary cap remained in the $58MM range for three straight seasons, making it tricky for teams to get under the cap unless they were in rebuilding mode and shed high-priced players. However, with the cap now up to $94MM+, and projected to blow past $100MM next summer, that’s no longer the case.
This year, 27 of 30 teams used cap room at some point to acquire players, leaving just three teams that never went under the cap. Plenty of those 27 teams have since used up all their space and gone well over the cap, but not many currently project to be over the cap in future seasons.
The NBA’s most recent estimate for the 2017/18 salary cap, released last month, was $102MM. At this point in the league year, cap estimates are usually on the conservative side, so we can probably expect a slightly higher figure next year, but that’s no lock — particularly since the NBA and the players’ union may make changes to the CBA by next July.
Still, even if we assume that the $102MM projection is accurate, there are currently only two teams whose guaranteed salaries for 2017/18 exceed that figure. Here are those teams:
Projected to be over the 2017/18 cap:
- Portland Trail Blazers: Incredibly, no NBA team has more guaranteed money on its 2017/18 books than the Blazers, whose $123.71MM blows away the competition. That total doesn’t include team options for Noah Vonleh and Shabazz Napier, a qualifying offer for Mason Plumlee, or Festus Ezeli‘s non-guaranteed salary. Throw in those figures, plus a few more non-guaranteed salaries, and Portland’s commitments total $140MM+. Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe, and Evan Turner combine to make $86.58MM in ’17/18.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Even without a new contract for J.R. Smith, the Cavs already have more than $113MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for ’17/18. LeBron James‘ $33.29MM salary is the biggest number, but the team has four more eight-digit cap hits, ranging from about $10.34MM for Iman Shumpert to $22.64MM for Kevin Love.
While the Blazers and Cavs are the only two teams whose guaranteed salaries for next year exceed $102MM, there are a few more clubs joining them above that threshold when taking into account non-guaranteed salaries, options, and/or qualifying offers. Here are those teams:
Projected to potentially be over the 2017/18 cap:
- Washington Wizards: After locking up Bradley Beal and Ian Mahinmi to expensive long-term deals this summer, the Wizards have $94MM+ in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2017/18. The team will have to add another $2MM+ to that total for Kelly Oubre, and then may need to commit more than $12MM in total to qualifying offers for Otto Porter and Trey Burke, potential restricted free agents.
- Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers have less than $60MM in guaranteed money on their ’17/18 cap, but that figure doesn’t include either Chris Paul or Blake Griffin, who have early termination options on their contracts. If both players stay in L.A. – either on their current deals or new ones – the Clippers will remain well over the cap.
- Detroit Pistons: This summer, the Pistons maxed out their cap room, then went over the cap to sign Andre Drummond to a max deal. Once the club exercises its 2017/18 option on Stanley Johnson, it will have about $95MM on the cap for next year. Detroit must also account for qualifying offers for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Bullock, along with Aron Baynes‘ $6.5MM player option, taking the team over the projected cap.
- Toronto Raptors: The Raptors’ current guaranteed and non-guaranteed commitments for 2017/18 total about $104MM, and the team figures to pare down that figure to below $102MM before the season begins. Still, if the club intends to keep Kyle Lowry beyond next season, he’ll likely require a big raise on his current $12MM player option, meaning Toronto’s remaining cap space will be chewed up quickly.
There are some other NBA teams that may not be involved in free agency because they’ll need any cap room they may have to re-sign their own players. Despite only currently having $37.3MM in guarantees on their 2017/18 cap, the Warriors may very well fit into this category, since Stephen Curry will be getting a huge raise, and the team will want to retain Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala as well.
Of course, these outlooks could change between now and next July, depending on in-season trades, draft-day deals, and potential CBA changes. For now though, the teams listed above appear to be the least likely candidates to go below the cap next offseason.
Information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.
- Wizards point guard John Wall is going through intense rehab as he tries to bounce back from two knee surgeries in May, writes Ben Standig of CSNMidAtlantic. Wall, who is expected to be ready for the start of next season, promises “the beginning of the new John Wall era” and says he’s trying to get in the best shape of his career.
The Wizards could be a suitor for Kendall Marshall, Ben Standig of Comcast Sportsnet speculates. Marshall was traded to the Jazz and subsequently waived on Friday. Washington could look to add depth at the point guard position with John Wall still recovering from knee surgery. The team added former first round pick Trey Burke via trade this offseason and the Michigan product will likely get the first shot at backing up the team’s franchise player.
The disconnect between the Wizards backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal could eventually convince the front office to deal one of them, according to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer.
Wall recently admitted in a TV interview with CSN’s Chris Miller that he and Beal don’t have great on-court chemistry, claiming they have “a tendency to dislike each other on the court.” Beal told CSNMidAtlantic.com’s J. Michael that he and Wall “lose sight of the fact that we need each other.”
O’Connor takes it a step further, quoting an unnamed agent who says the dislike extends beyond the basketball floor.
“Whatever is public, multiply it by five and that’s how they really feel about each other,” the agent told O’Connor. “It’s probably a total disaster.”
New Wizards head coach Scott Brooks will have the challenge of getting them to become a more cohesive pair but if that fails, the club may have no choice but to break them up, O’Connor opines. Beal just signed a $127MM contract but Wall’s contract, with three years and $54.2MM remaining, can easily be moved if the Wizards go in that direction, O’Connor adds.
Wall’s willingness to become more accountable and a respected leader will go a long way in determining how Washington handles the situation, Michael asserts in a different column. The backcourt pair, while not the best of friends, don’t hate each other, Michael continues. But assistant coach Sidney Lowe contends Wall must do more to win over everyone in the locker room.
“It’s your communication and get your players to feel good about you. And the way you do that is by you getting them to feel good about themselves,” Lowe told Michael. “There’s something to that. Obviously that’s an area where I can work with and talk to with John and help him out a little bit.”
Wall’s habit of publicly displaying his displeasure over contracts handed out to opposing players does not help his cause, O’Connor contends. Wall criticized the Pistons last summer for giving out a big contract to Reggie Jackson. Wall apparently had similar feelings about the extension James Harden received from the Rockets this summer, with a front-office executive telling O’Connor that Wall was “rankled” by that four-year, $118MM contract.
- John Wall, who underwent two offseason knee procedures, isn’t a lock to be ready by opening night, prompting Ben Standig of CSNMidAtlantic.com to wonder if the Wizards will explore adding more point guard depth to their roster. There are still several experienced point guards on the free agent market.
Four months after having surgery on both knees, the Wizards‘ John Wall is being cautious with predictions about his availability for opening night, relays Candace Buckner of The Washington Post. The procedure on Wall’s right knee just removed some loose particles, Bucker notes, but the operation on the left knee was much more serious. Wall hasn’t been cleared for one-on-one games, but he can run, jump and handle two-a-day workouts. “I’m doing all that right now, working out and doing all that type of things but I’m not in no rush,” Wall said. “I’m very excited to be back on the court because I will tell you sitting on the table all day and doing those boring exercises is no fun. Six hours out of the day, it’s the frustrating part in this.” Wall will join his teammates in Los Angeles for a four-day mini-camp starting Sunday. The Wizards open their regular season October 27th.
AUGUST 20: Hickson is finalizing a deal with the Fujian club, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com.
AUGUST 19: Power forward J.J. Hickson is negotiating a deal in China, a source told international journalist David Pick (Twitter link).
The 6’9” Hickson has played in the NBA since the 2008/09 season. He played 20 games with the Nuggets last season, including nine starts, and averaged 6.9 points and 4.4 rebounds in 15.3 minutes.
Hickson, who had a $5.6MM salary last season, was waived after reaching a buyout agreement in February. The Nuggets tried to deal him before the trade deadline but couldn’t find a taker. He played in just three games after December 8th before he was waived.
He then signed for the remainder of the season with Wizards after clearing waivers. He appeared in 15 games with Washington, averaging 4.6 points and 3.0 rebounds in 8.7 minutes.
Hickson has also played for the Cavaliers, Kings and Trail Blazers. He’s averaged 9.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in 534 career games.
A torn ACL in March 2014 sidetracked Hickson’s career. His reputation as a subpar midrange shooter and poor defender also hindered his chances of signing another NBA contract.
- New Wizards coach Scott Brooks is looking forward to coaching the backcourt combo of John Wall and Bradley Beal, a pairing he believes can be one of the league’s top duos, Ben Standig of CSNMid-Atlantic relays. “I haven’t had a chance to coach them yet, but on paper [and] having coached against them, it’s a perfect fit,” Brooks said. “We can have one of the best two-way backcourts in the league.“
The NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement is designed to give teams certain benefits when it comes to re-signing their own free agents. Many players who reach free agency, for instance, are permitted to get 7.5% annual raises from their own teams, while they can only get 4.5% raises from another team. More notably, Bird rights free agents can sign five-year contracts with their own teams, but can only go up to four years with other clubs.
In some cases, that extra year doesn’t make much of a difference. Al Horford left Atlanta for Boston and signed a four-year contract with the Celtics, even though there were reports suggesting the Hawks were open to going to five years (albeit not quite for the max). Kevin Durant signed with the Warriors on a two-year contract that he’ll likely opt out of after the first year in order to maximize his future earnings.
Still, for at least a handful of players, that five-year contract appears to have played a part in their decisions to return to their own teams. As our Free Agent Tracker shows, six free agents signed five-year deals this year, and all six of those contracts were worth at least $85MM. Three of them were maximum-salary pacts.
Here are those five-year contracts, which will run through the 2020/21 season:
- Mike Conley (Grizzlies): Five years, $152,605,578 (partial guarantee in year five)
- DeMar DeRozan (Raptors): Five years, $137,500,000 (player option in year five)
- Andre Drummond (Pistons): Five years, $127,171,313 (player option in year five)
- Bradley Beal (Wizards): Five years, $127,171,313
- Nicolas Batum (Hornets): Five years, $120,000,000 (player option in year five)
- Evan Fournier (Magic): Five years, $85,000,000 (player option in year five)
Although Conley drew significant interest from the Mavericks, he was always a favorite to return to the Grizzlies, and none of the other five players on this list were seriously linked to another suitor, which is interesting.
Drummond and Beal were restricted free agents who got max deals, so there was never any suspense about their destinations, but plenty of teams would have been interested in prying away DeRozan from the Raptors, Batum from the Hornets, or Fournier from the Magic. The fact that those players’ teams were willing to offer five years likely made negotiations much simpler, since no rival suitor could offer that fifth year.
A five-year contract provides additional long-term security for free agents, and also gives the team the opportunity to give the player some agency as well. In four of the six deals listed above, the contract features a fifth-year player option.
That means DeRozan, Drummond, Batum, and Fournier have a safety net for that 2020/21 season — if they’re still playing at a high level at that point, it might make sense to opt out and sign a new longer-term contract. If their production has slipped, or if they’re battling injuries, they’ll have the option of remaining in their current contract and collecting a big pay check in that fifth year.
The ability to offer an additional year to their own free agents hasn’t always prevented teams from losing top-tier players on the open market, but there are still plenty of instances where that fifth year seems to make a difference. As the CBA opt-out date nears and the NBA and NBPA explore potential changes to their current agreement, it makes sense for this aspect of the CBA to remain unchanged. That extra long-term security may not appeal to every marquee free agent, but it does give a player’s current team a leg up, which is crucial if the league is worried about potential imbalance.