Fantasy Hoops: Johnson, Rondo, Ilyasova

The 2016/17 campaign is entering its eleventh week and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

Tyler Johnson’s Value

The Nets shocked the basketball community when they signed Tyler Johnson to an offer sheet worth $50MM over four years. The move was seen as an overpay, but that sometimes comes with the restricted free agency territory, as teams have to find ways to discourage the incumbent team from matching. Many thought the offer meant that Johnson, a player who only played 36 games last season, would find his way to Brooklyn, but the Heat decided to match and give the 24-year-old an increased role. So far this season, it appears the team made the right decision.

The Heat are struggling, but Johnson isn’t the reason why. He’s one of five shooting guards seeing at least 30 minutes per game to have a positive rating on both the offensive and defensive end, according ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus. He’s making 39.1% of his shots from behind the arc, though his increased role has led to a dip in his overall field goal percentage.

Johnson missed tonight’s game against the Suns with a migraine, marking only the third time this season he’s been out of the lineup. The combo guard was playing well entering the contest. He averaged 17.1 points, 4.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game over his last seven. He also added two 3-pointers and nearly a block per contest.

Goran Dragic was sidelined in three of those games and he was hindered in parts of others due to back pain. Dragic may be on the trade block and if the team deals the point guard, Johnson’s fantasy value could see a substantial boost.

Johnson is available in over 43% of ESPN leagues and he’s worth adding for both his production now and his potential to take on an even bigger role of the offense later in the season.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

• The Bulls benched Rajon Rondo and he will reportedly seek a trade if he doesn’t see playing time. If he’s dealt, he could actually see a nice bump in value. His usage rate with the Bulls is his lowest since his rookie season and that’s due in part to the presence of Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. A new team may give him an opportunity to regain his status as a fantasy starter. If you can afford to wait out the situation, leave Rondo on your bench rather than dropping him, though taking the latter approach is a defensible action.
• Michael Carter-Williams is starting in place of Rondo, but he’s not necessarily a must-own commodity. MCW won’t provide much 3-point shooting and he will certainly hurt your team in the field goal percentage category. However, he will add value in several other categories, such as steals, blocks, assists and rebounds, and he’s a nice streaming option in the right match-up.
• Ersan Ilyasova continues to be useful for the Sixers and for fantasy purposes. He scored 19 points while shooting 50% from the field in tonight’s game against the Wolves. On Friday, Philadelphia will take on Boston, a team that is allowing the most points and eighth best field goal percentage to opposing forwards over their last five games.