Trade Deadline Outlook: Southwest Division

In the days leading up to the February 23 trade deadline, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. We’ll be identifying each team as a buyer, seller, or something in between, and discussing which teams and players are most likely to be involved in deals this month. We’ve already covered the Atlantic, Northwest, Southeast, Pacific, and Central. Today, we’re examining the Southwest.

Buyers:

The Spurs (43-13) lead the way among the Southwest’s group of buyers, but R.C. Buford typically isn’t all that active around the deadline. Even though San Antonio has been a perennial title contender in recent years, the team’s only in-season trade since 2013 came three years ago, when the Spurs sent Nando De Colo to Toronto in exchange for Austin Daye. It wasn’t exactly a franchise-altering move. While it’s possible the Spurs do something small at this year’s deadline, there’s a strong chance they’ll simply stand pat.

The Rockets (40-18) have also expressed reluctance to make major changes and upset team chemistry, but Daryl Morey is always exploring potential upgrades, and has a long history of making deadline deals. Houston technically didn’t make a move at the deadline a year ago, trading for Josh Smith in January rather than February. But before 2016, Morey had made at least one deadline deal every year since taking over as the club’s GM in 2007. This year, the club has been linked to veterans like Wilson Chandler, and reportedly has some interest in adding a ball-handler.

It may be a quiet deadline for the Grizzlies (34-24), who had been on the lookout for a backup point guard and an athletic big man. Toney Douglas has been solid in the backcourt since rejoining the club, and Brandan Wright has been effective in the frontcourt since getting healthy, so those needs may not be quite as pressing now. Memphis has already traded away its 2017 and 2019 first-round picks, which doesn’t leave a lot of ammo for the club to go after a legitimate impact player this week.

Speaking of legitimate impact players, the Pelicans (23-34) already made their big move this week, swinging a deal with Sacramento for All-NBA center DeMarcus Cousins. That trade signaled that New Orleans is a strong buyer this month, despite being 11 games below .500, and the club may not be done yet. Having sent out three guards in the Cousins swap, the Pelicans are in the market for backcourt help, and have reportedly Terrence Jones available as they search for deals.

Sellers:

With the top four teams in the Southwest all looking to earn playoff spots, that just leaves one club whose outlook is unclear. However, I don’t think that final team is a full-fledged seller…

Somewhere in between:

Instead, the Mavericks (22-34) fall somewhere in the middle between buying and selling, though they’re probably a little closer to the seller’s end of the spectrum. While they’re just a half-game back of New Orleans, the Mavs will have an uphill battle for a postseason berth, and it might make more sense for the club to see what it can get for some of its veteran players. Still, indications are that Mark Cuban‘s team has no interest in an all-out fire sale. Dallas likely won’t make any win-now moves this week, but I expect to see most of the club’s veterans – particularly those on multiyear deals – remain on the roster through Thursday’s deadline.

Team most likely to make a move:

Before the Cousins deal, I had the Pelicans down as the Southwest team most likely to make a move. I still think New Orleans fits that bill, since the club will need to do something to balance out its roster and replenish its backcourt, but the Mavericks and Rockets are very much in the running for this honor as well. In my view, this is a toss-up between New Orleans and Dallas, with Houston in the mix only due to Morey’s lengthy history of deadline deals.

Player(s) most likely to be moved:

A report late Sunday night suggested that Terrence Jones has likely played his last game with the Pelicans, so it’s hard not to give him the nod in this category, but there are several other candidates.

Elsewhere in New Orleans’ frontcourt, the club would certainly like to ditch Omer Asik, but would probably settle for moving Alexis Ajinca. Both players are out of the Pelicans’ rotation, but Asik’s contract is far more onerous and harder to sell than Ajinca’s.

For the Mavs, Andrew Bogut seems likely to be on the move this week — he’s on an expiring contract and would have real value to a few contending teams.

Under-the-radar trade candidate(s):

As I noted above, I don’t anticipate the Mavericks being eager to move some of their veteran contributors who are on multiyear deals, and that applies especially to someone like J.J. Barea, who is under contract through 2018/19 and earns less than $4MM annually. Still, the factors that make Barea valuable to Dallas would also make him appealing to other teams. If the Mavs were willing to consider moving him, Barea’s solid play and very affordable contract would likely make him more valuable than any of the other veteran point guards on the roster. I think Dallas will opt to keep Barea, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

What do you think is in store for the Southwest teams over the next three days? Which teams are most likely to make a deal? Which players will be on the move?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.